Get started

Russia

Euro under pressure, falls below 1.04The euro has stabilized on Friday, after a dreadful Thursday in which EUR/USD fell 1.26%. The euro continues to struggle and is trading at lows last seen in January 2017. The Ukraine war has taken a bite out of the eurozone economy and sent the euro tumbling. The latest development weighing on the euro was Russia's announcement of sanctions on some European gas importers, at a time when the EU is trying to garner support for a ban on Russian oil. Germany has said that it could manage without Russian oil, but the main stumbling block to the ban appears to be Hungary, which is very dependent on Russian energy supplies. The euro has broken through major support lines at 1.08 and 1.05, and if it breaches the 1.03 line, we could see move towards parity with the dollar. The wobbly euro hasn't received any support from the ECB, which has been slow to shed its dovish policy. After years of monetary easing, ECB members are becoming more vocal about the need for tighter policy, and ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that QE would end in the third quarter, and a rate hike would follow "some time" after that. We could see a rate increase as early as July, although it's unclear if the ECB will launch a rate cycle with a hike of 25 or 50 basis points. The US dollar has shined against the majors, buoyed by an aggressive Federal Reserve. The April US inflation report indicated that expectations of an inflation peak were premature, as CPI fell only slightly, from 8.5% to 8.3%. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 0.50% rate increases in June and July, as the Fed is focused on lowering inflation, which has hit a 40-year high. There has been some talk of a 0.75% hike, but it is far more likely that the Fed will stick with 0.50% moves, hoping that they can do the trick and wrestle down inflation. 1.0398 has switched to resistance. It is a weak line and could see further action during the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.0473 There is support at 1.0321 and 1.0246
by OANDA
M for (M)aybe invading a sovereign nation wasnt such a good ideaJust made kind of a prediction yesterday since some friends were interested in the RUB hitting the floor Original prediction made yesterday (3:42AM pacific time 28th) And then looked at today (also the idea has this anyway). Seemed pretty easy and I'm not sure where it will go from here or how far down it will go. It just depends on the war and any further sanctions, I guess. If it goes down like the Crimea timeframe, it should hit 0. Did you know monopoly money has a value? Since there are a number of them in each box, and they cost paper to produce, they are worth some fraction of a USD. Possibly, it could be worth more than the ruble soon!! Hope everyone stops this madness and people don't have to die.
Short
by rubyatmidnight
3
$DXY triple top dollar crash? 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! Looks like we will get a triple top on the dollar $DXY. This would signal a large melt-up rally for the markets if this scenario occurs. If $DXY miraculously manages to push itself through this resistance we will see a SUBSTANTIAL market correction. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXYShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Russian Ruble - Harasho Normalina First of all: We Hate war. All people should and could live in Peace! May Peace happens fast. (Now if possible) To the math: Russian Ruble attached to Gold standard + Putin's 'Ruble for gas or no gas at all' rules = an EPIC recovery To the chart: Price of USDRUB on support and i personally expect this to reverse back up, in other words i see the Ruble leaving some gains behind next. Volatility will be on as MAY 9 approaches and we don't know what to expect fundamentally. Will Putin make things worse on May 9 (Victory day)? Or will he call an end and pull out? The first scenario might seem more likely but we could expect surprises. In any case, no politics here..just PEACE you idiots! One Love, the FXPROFESSOR 🕊️ (Let the Crypto Unite You - Be traders, not Soldiers)
Long
by FX_Professor
3
$UVXY buying the dip 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Recap: Bitcoin and the US markets are losing steam after rallying for the majority of the month of March. We entered $UVXY on 3/25/22 at $14.25 per share. Our take profit was set at $18. My team has decided to average down on $UVXY at $11.75 per share which now brings our share average to $13. We have also added a 2nd take profit at $21. SHARE AVERAGE: $13 TAKE PROFIT 1: $18 TAKE PROFIT 2: $21 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CBOE:UVXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
10
GOLD LONG TO 2140We have seen a completion of Wave 3, completed with a retracement to the downside (Wave 4), giving Gold the liquidity to carry on its bullish movement. The final leg part of the bullish phase will be make Gold reach 2140-2160 this year before we see a downtrend start. We have FOMC tonight which will bring a lot of volatility into the markets. Be careful with your positions and make sure to use risk management as manipulation is expected. Make sure to drop a like and let me know what you think!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
1
$USOIL purely technical 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! $USOIL appears to be on a pathway to retest its support zone for the third time. If this zone is breached, we expect $USOIL to head into the $80-$90 range. This scenario is purely technical. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:USOILShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Why has the Russian ruble not collapsed yet? Russia’s efforts to prop up the ruble appears to be working despite sanctions imposed by Western countries aimed at cutting the Kremlin’s access to external resources and crippling the nation’s ability to fund its war against Ukraine.   Last week, the ruble surged to a more than two-year high against the euro and the US dollar, recouping its losses during the war. The rally was triggered by Russia’s last-ditch attempt to avoid defaulting on a eurobond on Friday.   Russia’s finance ministry paid $564.8 million in interest on a 2022 eurobond and $84.4 million on another 2042 bond, the ministry said Friday. Both payments were made in US dollars, marking a reversal from its previous threat to pay its debts in rubles.   To begin this week, the ruble has continued its strong performance, with the USDRUB down almost 3%. As it stands, Rubles are exchanging hands at less than 69 per USD. Rating cut to selective default Prior to the payment of these bonds, Russia had earlier paid its dollar-denominated bonds in rubles, triggering a rating downgrade by S&P Global Ratings to “selective default.”   The rating agency said investors won’t likely be able to convert those payments into dollars equivalent to the amount due as sanctions on Russia are predicted to worsen in the coming weeks.     Gas for ruble In a bid to bolster the ruble and retaliate against Western sanctions, Russia, one of the top oil-producing countries worldwide, required “unfriendly” buyers of the country’s natural gas to pay in rubles. While many European Union leaders were quick to reject the Kremlin’s demands, one of Germany’s biggest energy companies, Uniper, said it was ready to buy Russian gas by converting its euro payments into roubles.   "We consider a payment conversion compliant with sanctions law and the Russian decree to be possible," a spokesman was quoted by BBC as saying recently, adding that the absence of Russian gas “would have dramatic consequences for our economy.”   Russian national energy giant Gazprom recently cut off its gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to their refusal to pay in rubles.   Commodity powerhouse Many countries’ reliance on Russian oil and other commodities like wheat has helped the ruble avoid collapse and may play a role in supporting the currency moving forward.   Vyacheslav Volodin, a top Russian lawmaker, over a month ago said Russia should demand ruble payments for other commodities like wheat, fertilizer, and lumber, adding that Western governments have to pay for their decisions to sanction Russia.  
U
by BlackBull_Markets
4
Euro rebounds on strong GDP, inflation dataThe euro has bounced back on Friday with strong gains, ending a nasty 6-day losing streak. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0565, up 0.64% on the day. It has been a rough road for the euro, which hit a 5-year low this week as it broke below the 1.05 line. We're seeing a correction today, primarily due to solid GDP data out of Germany and the Eurozone. German GDP rose 4.0% in Q1 YoY, above the estimate of 3.8% and well ahead of the 1.8% gain in the Q4 of 2020. Eurozone GDP rose to 5.0% on an annualized basis, matching the forecast and above the prior release of 4.7%. The euro also received a boost as Eurozone CPI is expected to hit 7.5% YoY in April, up from 7.4%. Despite today's positive data, there are dark clouds on the horizon, which will more than likely send the euro back to its losing ways. France and Italy, the largest economies after Germany in the eurozone, both recorded negative growth of -0.2% QoQ in Q1, while Germany eked out a 0.2% gain. This points to the heavy toll that the Ukraine war has taken on the eurozone economies, and the war could certainly intensify, with Russia making a push in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine. There is also uncertainty surrounding the sanctions against Russia. On the one hand, there is talk of the EU banning oil imports from Russia, which would badly hurt the Russian economy but also dampen growth in Western Europe. At the same time, there are reports that some major European energy companies have accepted Moscow's demands to pay for gas and oil in roubles. This could lead to a collision between the companies and European governments, which could turn into another headwind for the struggling euro. As if the euro doesn't have enough on its plate, the hawkish pivot by the Fed has widened the US/Europe rate differential and sent the euro tumbling in recent weeks. With the Fed poised to raise rates by 0.50% next week and further super-size rate hikes on the table, the euro appears on track to drop to 1.03, and parity has become a realistic possibility. 1.0553 is a weak support line. Below, there is support at 1.0411 There is resistance at 1.0657 and 1.0728
by OANDA
Natural Gas’s Price Is As Combustible as the Energy CommodityVolatility in markets creates opportunity, but as risk is always a function of reward, the more the upside, the greater the potential for losses. Since natural gas futures began trading on the NYMEX in 1990, more than a few market participants have lost fortunes in the market that has traded as low as $1.02 and as high as $15.65 per MMBtu. Over five times higher since June 2020 US LNG to Asia was sold out for more than a decade A very volatile energy commodity Europe’s dependence on Russia causes supply issues If prices in Europe are a guide, we could see a challenge to the 2008 and 2005 highs The high came in 2005 when a devastating hurricane destroyed natural gas infrastructure along the US Gulf Coast at the NYMEX delivery point at the Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana. Another storm in 2008 took the price above the $10 per MMBtu level but to a lower high. Over the next twelve years, the natural gas market changed. Massive discoveries of quadrillions of cubic feet of natural gas in the US Marcellus and Utica shale regions and technological advances in fracking and extracting natural gas from the earth’s crust caused the supplies to soar and the price to decline. Since necessity is the mother of invention, two new demand verticals developed. Natural gas replaced coal in the US for power generation. Meanwhile, turning gas into liquid for transport beyond the US pipeline network created an export market for the energy commodity. In 2020, the price fell to the lowest level since 1995 at below $1.50 per MMBtu. Since then, the bear has transformed into a bull. Over five times higher since June 2020 The most recent peak in the natural gas futures arena took the price to $8.0650 on April 18. The weekly chart shows the explosive move from the $1.44 level in late June 2020 to the April 18 high, over five and one-half times higher in less than two years. Moving to a multi-year high as the peak season for demand approaches is one thing, but this rally comes as the peak season ended in March. US LNG to Asia was sold out for more than a decade The natural gas price in Asia has been far above US prices for years. The domestic US natural gas market’s transformation and expanding the addressable market far beyond the US pipeline network has made the energy commodity and NYMEX natural gas futures market more sensitive to international prices and supply and demand fundamentals. Cheniere Energy (LNG) is a leading supplier of liquefied natural gas that travels worldwide on ocean vessels. In 2021, Cheniere’s CEO told CNBC that the company was sold out of LNG for more than a decade after signing long-term supply contracts with Asian consumers. Asian prices were multiples of US prices, making the business highly profitable. Cheniere’s share price has reflected the booming demand for LNG. LNG shares rose from $27.06 in March 2020 to the most recent high of $149.42 in March 2022. At the $135.70 level on April 22, LNG shares reflect the growing demand for their energy product. While the shares and revenues exploded higher, earnings have been elusive. The chart shows the negative earnings trend since Q1 2021. A survey of twenty analysts on Yahoo Finance has an average price target of $149.50 for LNG shares, with forecasts ranging from $61 to $180 per share. LNG is a leader, but the EPS issue could cause the stock to become as volatile as the natural gas price over the past week. A very volatile energy commodity While price ranges tend to widen at higher levels, natural gas volatility was head-spinning over the past week. As the daily chart of May NYMEX natural gas futures highlights, after trading to a high of $8.065 per MMBtu on April 18, the price moved below the $7 level on April 19. Natural gas has never been for the faint of heart as the price has ranged from $1.02 to $15.65 per MMBtu since trading on NYMEX began in 1990. However, after over a decade of lower highs and lower lows, the trend changed in June 2020. The long-term chart illustrates the trend changed when natural gas futures moved above the 2018 $4.929 per MMBtu high, ushering in a bullish path of least resistance for the energy commodity. The quarterly price ranges since mid-2021 are the broadest since 2008, the last time the energy commodity eclipsed the $10 per MMBtu level. Europe’s dependence on Russia causes supply issues The previous administration warned Germany and the EU about depending on Russia for natural gas supplies. Meanwhile, US energy policy shifted from “drill-baby-drill” and “frack-baby-frack” in January 2021 when the Biden Administration began fulfilling its campaign pledge to address climate change. Stricter regulations, canceling pipelines, and bans on fracking and drilling on federal lands caused oil and gas output to decline. While it handed the pricing power in the oil market back to the international oil cartel and Russia, it also limited Europe’s options for natural gas supplies. While the administration took a hard line against US production, it supported a Russian natural gas pipeline to supply Europe with the energy commodity. The February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine changed the world. While the US, European, and other allied countries came together with severe sanctions, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas remains a window of opportunity for the Putin government. Retaliating for other sanctions, Russia is now demanding rubles for natural gas supplies, boosting the currency despite other stringent sanctions. The US government has leaned on companies like Cheniere to divert supplies from Asia to Europe. However, the administration’s energy policy has not supported the new US terminals to liquefy natural gas and increase supply capacity. Russia remains in the driver’s seat in European natural gas requirements and is free to drive the price higher. If prices in Europe are a guide, we could see a challenge to the 2008 and 2005 highs At the recent $8+ high, US natural gas futures rose to the highest price since 2008. Meanwhile, European prices have screamed higher in 2022. The long-term chart shows ICE UK natural gas futures rose to $800 in March. Before 2021, the all-time high was at the $117 level in 2005. At $171.39 at the end of last week, European natural gas prices remain at lofty levels above the pre-2021 record peak. Natural gas has transformed into a far more international commodity. The US lost an opportunity to supply Europe and remove cash flow from Russia before the first Russian soldier crossed Ukraine’s border on February 24. The revenue from natural gas sales to Europe is funding the first major European war since WW II. Rising natural gas prices will fuel inflation and hit consumers in their pocketbooks in the US. Natural gas is another victim of inflation, the war in Ukraine, and US energy policy. Addressing climate change is a noble cause, but fossil fuels continue to power the world. The shift from hydrocarbons to alternative and renewable fuels is a multi-decade, not a multi-month process. The economic and geopolitical landscapes and US energy policy shift ignited a very bullish fuse in a very combustible commodity. Natural gas price explosions and implosions could be the norm instead of the exception over the coming months and years. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Andy_Hecht
Nat Gas Should Hold Support @ $6.5The natural gas market has been supply constrained ever since the Russian ukraine war started. The war is significant to the natural gas market because Russia is the worlds 2nd largest producer of natural gas. Russia also holds 20% of the worlds natural gas reserves. NAT GAS is trading above a crucial 10 year resistance level around $6.5, we broke this level around April 13th. Since breaking that level we saw NAT GAS trade up to $6.5, now we are seeing NAT GAS come back down to this level, I believe we see this $6.5 level hold and NAT GAS move higher
NLong
by Value-Invest
BITCOIN 6H TA : 04.21.22 (Update) Yesterday we saw that the price reacted negatively by reaching 42K and with a 3% correction to the level of $ 40800, it was able to react positively to this support level (BB +) and is currently trying to break the resistance of $ 43300. , Considering the volume of market and the power of Bulls at the price of $ 41600 on the current trading day, we can expect the price to rise above $ 43000 and wait for the price to break and consolidate above this level. Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 04.21.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
5
$US30 the glass house 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! $US30 has been consolidating outside of our bearish channel for the past 2 weeks. Many traders automatically assume that this is bullish, but appearances can sometimes be deceiving. My team still expects a strong bearish move to take place within the next couple of weeks, but it may retest 35350-35850 before that happens. Overall, the market appears to be waiting for a catalyst to justify an impulsive move down. Our guess is that repercussions/escalations from the Russian-Ukraine crisis will kick this move into motion before May arrives. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
U
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney