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Russianruble

Russian Ruble CRUSHED! Lost The War!Russian Ruble FX_IDC:USDRUB is getting destroyed! Russia with an economy half the size of California can never go up against 60% of the global GDP while killing off nearly 1 million able-bodied men out of their economy. Corruption is out of control, 35% of the economy is allocated to the war, not future investment. Russia is suffering from Dutch Disease As usual #MMT gets it wrong again! As highlighted. So did the "sanctions don't work" crowd
Long
by RealMacro
4
USDRUB Massive bullish break-out delivering a strong rally.The USDRUB pair has made an aggressive bullish break-out since the week of September 16, as it broke above the 1-year Lower Highs trend-line (since October 09 2023). At the same time it broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while sustaining a rebound off the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). As we can see on this chart, when the pair historically breaks above similar Lower Highs trend-lines, it rallies to at least the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect to see at least 110.000 on the current rally. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDRUB Sell opportunity at the top of the Channel Down.The USDUB pair is on the 2nd straight red candle following yesterday's strong rejection near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost broke above the overbought barrier (70.00), a level last visited on April 16 2024. As a result, we believe that this is the start of the new Bearish Leg of the pattern. Our target is 81.200, representing a -13.49% decline (similar to the previous ones). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
USDRUB Long-term bearish continuation confirmed.The USDRUB pair has confirmed the transition from a 2-year long-term bullish trend to a bearish one, after closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The technical pattern that prevailed is a Channel Down, which last week almost touched the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a level intact since February 06 2023, and instantly rebounded closing the 1W candle almost flat. The last two times that the pair traded within a Channel Down pattern that hit the 1W MA100 was in 2021 and 2019 as shown on your chart. In both cases, the downtrend didn't stop on the 1W MA100 but extended to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), in 2019 it got hit, in 2021 almost. As a result, we think this is the most optimal level to sell this pair again, and target 80.500 (just above the 1W MA200). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
USDRUB On the key 1W MA50 pivot. Trade accordingly.The USDRUB pair has bee trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 5 months and yet again is testing the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a highly important Support level as it has been tested 4 times in 2024 and held (even closed the 1W candles above it) on all occasions. Naturally, as long as it holds, we remain bullish targeting 96.8000 (1.236 Fibonacci extension, which is where the February 23 2024 Higher High was priced. If it closes a candle below the 1W MA50, we will take a quick sell and target 89.9400 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
USDRUB Is it time to buy?We last looked into the USDRUB pair 4 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below) when we got the most optimal sell entry and easily hit our 95.000 target: This time we transition to the 1W time-frame where the long-term trend is more evident, and it remains bullish within a Channel Up pattern that is holding since The June 27 2022 market bottom. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) has been the Resistance since the week of October 30 2023 but on the other hand the price has respected/ held the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term Support, for 3 straight weeks, closing all 1W candles above it. At the same time the 1W RSI broke and remains above its MA line, so we are giving the bullish trend a slight edge at the moment. If the pair closes a 1W candle above the 1D MA100, it will be the bullish confirmation signal we need to buy and target 103.500, which will be a +19.50% rise from the recent bottom and will test the 1.0 Fibonacci level. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDRUB Wonderful Fibonacci Channel trading setup.The USDRUB pair is trading on a Fibonacci Channel Up with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) providing the first level of Support. Coming of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price is on the 3rd mini Channel phase (orange) within the 1.0 and 1.5 Fibonacci levels, same as the previous (green) has been within 0.5 - 1.0 Fib and the one before (blue) within the 0.0 - 0.5 Fib. We should be half-way through this phase so every 1.5 Fib test is a sell opportunity and every 1.0 is a buy, until the price hits the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and starts the rise to the next Fib range (1.5 - 2.0). Currently the pair is a sell opportunity, targeting 95.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
The Rise (mean reversion) of the Russian RubleThe Russian Ruble is represented on an inverted, logarithmic scale vs.the G/S & G7 currency basket, where a rise in price levels on the chart indicates an irise in the Ruble. For all the widely known reasons the Russian Ruble remains a remarkably accurate yard stick of the march of imperialism and the states of various hegemonies ("Globalization", in short) for the past 20 years. The Russian Federation maintains 0 (zero) debt , a positive account balance, combined with what is most likely the largest horde of gold & foreign reserves outside (and insulated from) Western jurisdictions, making the currency remarkably stable - despite all the propaganda and wishful thinking to the contrary -, for the past two decades. (It has proven itself far more stable than other means or stores of value across the G-7. This is clearly a thorn in the side of others' continued imperialist aspirations.) These facts simply highlight the present (and potential future) opportunity, wherein any significant deviation from the Median likely represents a significant trading opportunity. LONG p.s. On the contrary, the current vogue of wide spread and simple-minded speculations, heralding the rise of China and hence, the Yuan/Remninbi as the new, potentially global reserve currency, are so fundamentally flawed that entire books have addressed the topic as of late, examining it in great detail and with accuracy. I.e., a rapidly collapsing Chinese population, quickly followed by de-industralization and de-urbanization a stable, global reserve currency does not make! - Among other, inherently disqualifying factors.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Nemo_Confidat
#USDRUBEconomic pressure from developed countries was unprecedented. The Russian Federation has become the absolute record holder in terms of the number of sanctions imposed on it, bypassing countries such as North Korea and Iran. In response to the sanctions policy, the ministers limited the capital account, greatly inflated the interest rate and allowed commercial banks to introduce a commission for storing dollars and euros (about 12% per year), without the possibility of withdrawing cash (only in rubles, at the rate of the Central Bank) . Naturally, a cash currency market appeared, the spread of which at the current price is about 10 rubles. The high volatility of the national currency and the withdrawal of Western firms hit imports catastrophically, while exports continued to bring in large foreign exchange earnings due to high energy prices. Thus, we got an artificial strengthening of the ruble, for which we created all the necessary macroeconomic conditions - a huge positive trade balance. The state budget also remained in surplus for a long time. After the onset of 2023, all past "pros" for the ruble were not viable. The Central Bank lowered the key interest rate to 7.5%, the trade balance has ceased to be published since March 2022. Thus, we observe 2 important factors: 1) The state budget deficit, which in January already received 65% of the entire projected deficit for 2023. 2) QE, which was launched by the Central Bank to finance budget gaps through REPO. Of course, the government has a special fund to cover the budget deficit, but its liquid part is 6.5 trillion rubles, while the budget deficit, only in January, amounted to 1.76 trillion. In this case, the government has already begun sequestering the budget, with the exception of military and power items. However, this is not enough in the face of the loss of major sales markets and declining energy prices. Gas prices in Europe fell below $600, and URALS oil fell below $60, although back in November they were $83. Under these conditions, the government is left with few options: 1. Significantly reduce military spending and neutralize the budget deficit. 2. Significantly weaken the ruble to restore lost income. 3. Strengthen the hidden QE program. 4. Spend the entire stabilization fund. I would like the reader to understand that there is a social contract in the Russian Federation - although social security is insignificant, and payments are minimal, they must be carried out impeccably, since violation of this contract entails political risks. All 4 options, with the exception of the 1st, look the most realistic, with a possible combination. Under these conditions, I do not see other scenarios, except for the continuation of the trend for the weakening of the Russian currency. Even in the event of an end to the conflict, a reduction in government spending on military needs and a partial lifting of sanctions, Europe is unlikely to allow the restoration of the former sales markets for Russian energy resources and Europe's trend towards diversifying supplies is unlikely to change, it remains only to look for new ones. However, Russia has already lost part of the most solvent market. Strengthening is possible, but this requires a strong position on the part of the Central Bank, which must again raise the interest rate and hold it for a long time, but in the current macroeconomic conditions this looks unlikely, although such a development cannot be ruled out. Technical picture: After a false breakdown of the main resistance 79.6 - 86.1, the price returned under it and now it acts as the main reference point for market participants. In the same area, the previous price pattern passes, which now acts as a resistance line. Last year, a new price model was formed to reduce the value of the US currency. Also, we have a dollar support level at 51.4 - 48.7. Therefore, I recommend to closely monitor the area of the past resistance level, at the moment the picture tells us, at a minimum, about trading in a range and or a possible further strengthening of the ruble. However, it is the fundamental picture that tells us about reverse.
Long
by VOKCAPITAL
4
USDRUB Supported and with a STOCH Bullish Cross!The USDRUB has been trading within a 5 month Rectangle pattern ever since the price retraced from the start of the war High. The price made a High on October 11 and has been pulling back since but for the 7th straight session, it remains supported on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which since late July has been trading around the Rectangle's middle (median), thus acting as somewhat a pivot point. This level of Support along with the fact that the STOCH RSI is making a Bullish Cross, presents a short-term buy opportunity, first towards the top of the High Volatility Zone and then towards the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
2
USDRUB 4 years of slow rising before the next stress eventThe USDRUB pair is consolidating in recent weeks since the short-lived rebound on the June 27 (1W candle) low. The inability to break above either the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) or the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) should keep the price action rather neutral for now. As you see the long-term bullish Channel that started after the July 2008 low, is still holding as the June Low was contained just above its Higher Lows trend-line. After such a Low, the pair tends to start a Channel Up on a slow pace within the respective Fibonacci levels. This is a long-term accumulation phase before a major stress event rapidly sends the RUB depreciating against the USD. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
Will the Russian Ruble keep appreciating vs other currencies?The truth is that the most likely answer is yes, the Ruble will keep going higher. Russia is a massive commodities exporter, from oil & gas, to wheat, and therefore there is a constant bid for its currency due to the natural demand for its resources. As Russia is hit by several sanctions, it is very hard for them to buy stuff from outside of Russia, and therefore even less money is flowing out of the country. The government has also imposed capital controls, and it is hard for its citizens to sell their currency for USD, EUR etc. The Central bank also raised rates from 5% in 2021 up to 20% post invasion, and have now dropped rates to 11%. Even though that's still a pretty high number and inflation in Russia is much higher than 11%, however this rate is still much higher than what many countries are offering. A 9% cut in interest rates couldn't even bring the currency down, a major sign of strength. However in my opinion the most important aspect is that Russia has very low debt and could take the hit, while most other countries can't raise rates without breaking everything. They also have significant amounts of Gold, and what remains to be seen is what happens to their FX reserves that have been frozen. If they totally lose these reserves then the currency could suffer, but for now it is possible that they get their reserves back. Forcing 'hostile' countries to pay them in Rubles isn't as important as people think, as they could have accepted payments in Euros for example, and then used that money to buy their own currency. This was mostly a power play and a statement that energy sanctions are futile. Now in terms of TA, the Ruble got insanely oversold after having a huge breakdown (USDRUB breaking out), but when the dust settled, many people who were short were forced to cover as their brokers wouldn't allow them to trade the Ruble. Many accounts were probably blown up due to the whole sanctions, capital controls and so on, that made it very hard for traders to go long or short. As USDRUB started coming down, longs were getting crushed and everyone had to start closing their positions. The market became illiquid and unstable, and mainly damaged those betting against the Ruble. At the moment USDRUB has gotten incredibly oversold, as it broke the S3 Yearly Pivot, as well as the S3 Monthly Pivot, and broke the 2020 Covid low, as well as the 2017-2018 lows. The bounce is mostly driven by technical reasons (taking out stops & being oversold), as well as the 3rd rate cut. However in terms of TA, it looks pretty likely that it is heading for 36$. The whole reversal from 160 all the way down here is still very bearish and an indication that lower prices are coming. The rejection at the diagonal resistance is pretty bearish, and the entire 2013-2015 rally / breakout could be reversed. In the short term the market could trade between 55 & 70, but in the long term it is going to go lower.
Short
by BitcoinMacro
23
USDRUB made 7 year lows but getting close to long-term buy levelThe USDRUB pair hit this week the lowest levels since June 2015, marking a remarkable turnaround for the Ruble (drop on the pair around -65%) since the March 2022 High at the peak of the Russia - Ukraine invasion. With this massive drop, the pair is getting very close to the Higher Lows trend-line that started during the subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. on July 2008. This chart is on the 1W time-frame (log), with the RSI also approaching its own multi-year Support Zone. With the April - May 2015 Support Zone (made during another period of huge uncertainty in Russian economy) also close around 49.00, it is obvious that the price is near the most significant long-term Support cluster. As a result, our long-term strategy on the pair has turned heavily bullish, targeting at first the Pivot trend-line (71.00) that should act as the first Resistance. The pattern is invalidated if we get a monthly candle closing below the 2008 Higher Lows trend-line. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
2
Russia - RTS$ Index - Does this suggest War will go end? Does this suggest War will go end? A multi-year triangle gives us a clue. Triangles are one of the most recognizable patterns in the Elliott Wave Principle. As with all wave patterns, they occur at every time scale and the large-degree triangles are especially interesting because they often contain a notable socionomic element. Large-degree triangles in rallies are bear markets. Sideways movement in nominal terms means that, with consumer price inflation generally positive, in real terms, market value is being lost. Large-degree triangles during stock market rallies are manifestations of a negative social mood. It’s not surprising, therefore, that the ends of triangles often correspond with a news event of a social action that has been driven by this negative mood.  The chart above shows the Russian Trading System Index. This is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of 50 Russian stocks traded on the Moscow Exchange, calculated in U.S. dollars. As such, it takes into account the performance of the Russian ruble as well as the stock market. Since 2008, the index appears to have traced out a multi-year triangle, with the final wave ((E)) down now in operation. Notice that it was towards the end of the decline in wave ((C)) of the triangle that Russia made its first incursion into Ukraine in August 2014, escalating it further in November of that year. Fast forward to 2022, and with over 190,000 Russian troops in on Ukraine, another incursion happened. Nevertheless, Russian President Putin states that he has no intention to invade other European countries. Given the Elliott wave pattern, and what appears to be the waxing anger of the final wave lower in social mood, we take those statements with a bucket-full of salt. This sociometer is anticipating that a dramatic social action it's coming to an end?
RUS:RTSILong
by ferGOD
2
Gold Remains a Compelling Investment on Price WeaknessGold is hard cash, and the precious yellow metal has a long history dating back thousands of years. Dollars, euros, yen, pounds, yuan, rubles, and all currencies floating around in the global financial system are babies compared to gold, the hard asset that holds value and symbolizes wealth. Gold holds the $1800 level after making a new high The bullish long-term trend remains firmly intact Russia backs the ruble with gold- Will China follow? Buying dips has been golden over the past two decades So many choices for gold investing and trading Countries, central banks, monetary authorities, and supranational institutions hold gold as a critical part of their foreign exchange reserves. They have added to reserves over the past decades, validating gold’s role in the global financial system. Aside from its monetary role, gold is a commodity and an ornamental metal that symbolizes love, wealth, and security. Gold has a myriad of industrial applications. Gold’s brand is unparalleled as it remains the ultimate form and symbol of money. Gold’s bull market began at the turn of this century, and it continues in May 2022. Gold’s appreciation is a commentary on fiat currency depreciation. Over the past two decades, the precious metal has respected technical levels and remains a compelling asset for investors and traders. Gold holds the $1800 level after making a new high On March 8, 2022, June COMEX gold futures rose to a new record peak of $2,082 per ounce. The price rallied on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but ran out of upside steam after making a marginal new high above the August 2020 peak. The chart of June gold futures shows the correction that took the futures to a low of $1,785 per ounce on May 16. Since then, the price bounced and was just above the $1850 level on May 27. While gold fell below the $1800 level, it only spent two days under the price that was the pivot point throughout most of 2021. The bullish long-term trend remains firmly intact Gold’s bullish trend began over twenty-two years ago, in 1999. The chart shows that the decline to $252.50 per ounce in August 1999 stands as gold’s bottom. Gold fell below the $300 level as the United Kingdom auctioned one-half of its gold reserves from 1999 to 2001. In early 2008, the precious metal rose above the 1980 record $875 high and probed above the $1,000 level for the first time. Gold has not ventured below $1,000 per ounce since October 2009. After reaching a record high of $1,911.60 in 2011, gold corrected and consolidated at above $1,000 through July 2020, when it made a higher high in August. The latest peak came in March 2022 as the long-term bull market trend remains firmly intact. Russia backs the ruble with gold- Will China follow? Central banks and governments hold gold as an integral part of foreign exchange holdings, validating gold’s role in the worldwide financial system. Over the past years, governments have been net buyers of gold, adding to reserves, with China and Russia the most high-profile buyers. Since the Chinese and Russians are significant gold producers and reserves are state secrets, it is challenging to quantify the increases in their reserves. According to the World Gold Council, in 2020, annual gold production was 3,478.1 tons. China produces 368.3 tons, and Russian output was 331.1 tons. Together, they produced over 20% of the world’s output, and the lion’s share likely went into reserves. China and Russia had also purchased gold on the international bullion market to add to their holdings. The geopolitical bifurcation that began on February 4, 2022, with a handshake between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin for “no-limits” cooperation, was a prelude to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It could also accelerate Chinese plans for reunification with Taiwan. The alliance pits China and Russia against the US and Europe, with other countries lining up on each side of the widening gulf between the nuclear powers. The US remains the world’s leading economy, but China is nipping on the US’s heels for the leadership role. The US dollar is the global reserve currency, but its role is slipping, and the geopolitical bifurcation threatens the dollar’s position. Sanctions led the Russians to declare that 5,000 roubles are exchangeable for one gram of gold, putting the Russian currency back on a gold standard. The chart of the currency relationship between the US dollar and the Russian rouble shows the plunge that took the rouble to $0.00757 in March after the invasion. The move to back the rouble with gold lifted the rouble to over the $0.0148 level on May 27. Meanwhile, the rouble moved to its highest level since 2018 against the US currency in May before correcting. If China follows the Russians and backs the yuan with gold, it will dramatically increase the precious metals’ role in the global financial system. Gold’s price would likely rise with the increasingly prominent role. Buying dips has been golden over the past two decades The long-term gold chart shows that buying gold on any price weakness has been the optimal approach to gold investing over the past two decades. Buying on rallies increased the odds of waiting out corrections and consolidation periods. The chart over the past three years shows that buying gold during periods of price weakness increases the odds of profitable trading and investing. So many choices for gold investing and trading The most direct route for owning gold is purchasing gold bars and coins. Gold is one of the few assets that provide a sense of security and wealth and is beautiful in its pure form. Gold futures are the next step on the golden pyramid as they provide a delivery mechanism. Unleveraged gold ETF products like GLD, IAU, and BAR hold the metal, creating a high correlation with the physical gold price. Gold mining shares provide leverage as the companies invest substantial capital in extracting gold from the earth’s crust. They extract lower grade ores as the prices rise, leading to greater profits in bull markets. Gold mining shares tend to outperform the metal’s price during rallies and underperform during corrections, providing leverage. However, gold mining shares do not suffer from the time decay that other leveraged tools often experience. Individual gold mining shares have idiosyncratic management risks and specific mining projects in producing countries worldwide. The GDX senior gold mining ETF and the GDXJ junior mining ETF products hold portfolios of senior and junior gold mining companies that diversify the idiosyncratic risks. The NUGT and JNUG products turbocharge the upside and downside returns of the GDX and GDXJ products, but they are only appropriate for short-term risk positions as NUGT and JNUG experience time decay. There are many other gold-related investment options, but the pure-play is the metal. Gold is a mainstay investment and trading asset that should be part of all portfolios. At the $1851.30 level on May 27, gold has corrected from the early March low but is on the way back up after probing below $1800 per ounce. Buying gold on dips continues to be the optimal trading and investing approach for the precious metal with a long history. Gold provides security and holds its value over time, and Russia’s return to a gold standard could boost its role in the global financial system over the coming years. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
1
Bulls roaring back! Is it really the bottom? Not so soon...INVESTMENT CONTEXT Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, said that "liberating" the Donbas region of Ukraine was still Russia's "unconditional" priority Germany's economy minister, Robert Habeck, warned the EU resolve on sanctions to Russia was starting to "crumble" Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still expected to maintain his veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO Stores and offices reopened in Beijing on Sunday, after officials announced COVID-19 outbreaks were under control. Similarly in Shanghai authorities announced loosening testing requirements to enter public places as new cases hit their lowest since March LUNA 2.0 launch is off to a rough start, with investors rocking the asset down 70% on the very day of the airdrop PROFZERO'S TAKE ProfZero welcomes the renewed risk-on attitude that seems to be permeating markets. With the S&P 500 finally breaking a 7-week red streak, and Nasdaq regaining 12k support, investors are trying to shrug off the worst of this year's meltdown. Yet, can we call the worst already to be behind? ProfZero thinks - not today. There are yet too many pockets of pent-up volatility to be resolved before buys may be considered organic - inflation is still being driven by energy and soft commodities, Fed and ECB have not completed setting up monetary policy to adjust interest rates and and the consequences of the war in Ukraine are inflicting pain to several developing economies in the Middle East and North Africa, potentially leading to unrests. The progressive reopening of China is definitely behind of the rebound in risk assets - yet ProfZero peacefully reminds that China announced literally last week that it will struggle to score positive growth in Q2. Markets are always 1 if not 2 quarters ahead - positive surprises would be all too welcome even ahead of that Crumbling European's resolve on sanctions to Russia is expected to erupt on May 30, as EU leaders are set to meet and discuss how to implement new restrictions on Russian energy still flowing to the continent. With a full-blown embargo now off the table, as it would cripple the energy security of the landlocked economies of Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic, talks are ongoing to limit seaborne imports while not touching volumes via pipeline. ProfZero has long indicated energy as the true table for negotiations to happen - with fading unity on crude oil, no better cohesion can be expected by the EU on gas down the road Russia apparently avoided default again on May 27 by delivering EUR 100mln interest payments on two Eurobonds - ProfZero sees this simmering narrative as a silent hope of diplomatic channels being open After failing to trail the market on May 27's rally, blockchain assets came roaring on May 30, on the back of broader investor enthusiasm. BTC reclaiming 30k mark and altcoins springing back from earlier lows are even more noteworthy as investors whiplashed LUNA 2.0 project relaunch - selection effects may now be once again at work after correlations peaked. ProfZero's are glimmering at the sight of markets - doing their job
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Russian Ruble - Harasho Normalina First of all: We Hate war. All people should and could live in Peace! May Peace happens fast. (Now if possible) To the math: Russian Ruble attached to Gold standard + Putin's 'Ruble for gas or no gas at all' rules = an EPIC recovery To the chart: Price of USDRUB on support and i personally expect this to reverse back up, in other words i see the Ruble leaving some gains behind next. Volatility will be on as MAY 9 approaches and we don't know what to expect fundamentally. Will Putin make things worse on May 9 (Victory day)? Or will he call an end and pull out? The first scenario might seem more likely but we could expect surprises. In any case, no politics here..just PEACE you idiots! One Love, the FXPROFESSOR 🕊️ (Let the Crypto Unite You - Be traders, not Soldiers)
Long
by FX_Professor
3
Why has the Russian ruble not collapsed yet? Russia’s efforts to prop up the ruble appears to be working despite sanctions imposed by Western countries aimed at cutting the Kremlin’s access to external resources and crippling the nation’s ability to fund its war against Ukraine.   Last week, the ruble surged to a more than two-year high against the euro and the US dollar, recouping its losses during the war. The rally was triggered by Russia’s last-ditch attempt to avoid defaulting on a eurobond on Friday.   Russia’s finance ministry paid $564.8 million in interest on a 2022 eurobond and $84.4 million on another 2042 bond, the ministry said Friday. Both payments were made in US dollars, marking a reversal from its previous threat to pay its debts in rubles.   To begin this week, the ruble has continued its strong performance, with the USDRUB down almost 3%. As it stands, Rubles are exchanging hands at less than 69 per USD. Rating cut to selective default Prior to the payment of these bonds, Russia had earlier paid its dollar-denominated bonds in rubles, triggering a rating downgrade by S&P Global Ratings to “selective default.”   The rating agency said investors won’t likely be able to convert those payments into dollars equivalent to the amount due as sanctions on Russia are predicted to worsen in the coming weeks.     Gas for ruble In a bid to bolster the ruble and retaliate against Western sanctions, Russia, one of the top oil-producing countries worldwide, required “unfriendly” buyers of the country’s natural gas to pay in rubles. While many European Union leaders were quick to reject the Kremlin’s demands, one of Germany’s biggest energy companies, Uniper, said it was ready to buy Russian gas by converting its euro payments into roubles.   "We consider a payment conversion compliant with sanctions law and the Russian decree to be possible," a spokesman was quoted by BBC as saying recently, adding that the absence of Russian gas “would have dramatic consequences for our economy.”   Russian national energy giant Gazprom recently cut off its gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to their refusal to pay in rubles.   Commodity powerhouse Many countries’ reliance on Russian oil and other commodities like wheat has helped the ruble avoid collapse and may play a role in supporting the currency moving forward.   Vyacheslav Volodin, a top Russian lawmaker, over a month ago said Russia should demand ruble payments for other commodities like wheat, fertilizer, and lumber, adding that Western governments have to pay for their decisions to sanction Russia.  
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by BlackBull_Markets
4