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Russiaukrainecrisis

Russia - RTS$ Index - Does this suggest War will go end? Does this suggest War will go end? A multi-year triangle gives us a clue. Triangles are one of the most recognizable patterns in the Elliott Wave Principle. As with all wave patterns, they occur at every time scale and the large-degree triangles are especially interesting because they often contain a notable socionomic element. Large-degree triangles in rallies are bear markets. Sideways movement in nominal terms means that, with consumer price inflation generally positive, in real terms, market value is being lost. Large-degree triangles during stock market rallies are manifestations of a negative social mood. It’s not surprising, therefore, that the ends of triangles often correspond with a news event of a social action that has been driven by this negative mood.  The chart above shows the Russian Trading System Index. This is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of 50 Russian stocks traded on the Moscow Exchange, calculated in U.S. dollars. As such, it takes into account the performance of the Russian ruble as well as the stock market. Since 2008, the index appears to have traced out a multi-year triangle, with the final wave ((E)) down now in operation. Notice that it was towards the end of the decline in wave ((C)) of the triangle that Russia made its first incursion into Ukraine in August 2014, escalating it further in November of that year. Fast forward to 2022, and with over 190,000 Russian troops in on Ukraine, another incursion happened. Nevertheless, Russian President Putin states that he has no intention to invade other European countries. Given the Elliott wave pattern, and what appears to be the waxing anger of the final wave lower in social mood, we take those statements with a bucket-full of salt. This sociometer is anticipating that a dramatic social action it's coming to an end?
RUS:RTSILong
by ferGOD
2
Trouble for NGAS. NGAS LongGood day traders, Following all my NGAS analysis meeting take profit levels, I'm now able to confirm the bigger picture. Please note that all my analysis are done from a swing point of view but you could see the targets being met sooner than anticipated. Building up to the Russia/Ukraine war we noticed the Natural Gas prices consolidate and only saw it surge after the sanctions were handed. With the sanctions in place, I believe that the market will keep surging until something is done about the high demand that was created by the sanctions. What we currently know: The Russia/Ukraine most recent peace talks failed thus we saw the market surge to $8.1 last week. We are are close our support and I now anticipate Natural gas to retest our key level and eventually meet our Take profit level on our long term resistance. What are your thoughts on this commodity? Do you agree with my observation? Please join in the converstion to share your thoughts. Disclaimer NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
NLong
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
SSSE - Shanghai Composite -The China Will Help Russia?This Chart Suggests That China Will Help Russia A negative mood in China could be reaching an extreme. Reports over the weekend are stating that Russia has asked China for military and economic assistance as its invasion of Ukraine gets bogged down. A new Sino-Russia friendship pact was formed just before Russia launched its assault, with Putin and Xi Jinping best of buddies at the Winter Olympics. With Western sanctions impacting the Russian economy, it’s abundantly clear that China is now the key in this geo-political crisis. China has a choice of whether to help Russia, by buying its oil, etc... or to put pressure on Putin to stop his imperialistic ambitions. The chart above is a clue that China will choose the former route. The chart shows the progression of negative social mood in China since 2007, with that mood trend driving a bear market in the Shanghai Composite index. The pattern is a triangle, very similar to that seen in the Russian RTS$ index which caused to forecast that Russia would invade Ukraine. Primary degree wave (C) of the triangle equaled 0.618 of the length of wave (A), a solid clue that the pattern is correct. The advance in wave (D) might still be operation but it’s interesting that, although not a classic triangle ratio, the proposed wave (D) ending in September 2021 equaled a Phi-related 0.382 of the length of wave (B). So, if this wave count is correct in the Shanghai Composite index, Primary degree wave (E) is already in operation. Negative mood expressions such as widespread Covid-lockdowns could already be a manifestation of this wave, which can be expected to be the point at which negative mood reaches an extreme. (Note that regardless of whether the Shanghai Composite is already in wave E or still in the latter throes of wave (D), in either case the larger degree bear market is 15 years old and counting.) The negative mood extreme could very probably drive China to go all-in in siding with Russia. Crisis and opportunity indeed.
C
by ferGOD
3
Putin: Ever Pushing Euro DownChart shows the effect of Russian invasion of Gergia and Ukraine on the Euro. In the previous two attacks (2008 & 2014) the Euro went down around 30% . Of course the whole downturn of the Euro can not squarely be put on Putin, taking into account the devastating effects of the 2008 financial crysis, but it is clear that it has a lot of downward effects none the less. The European economy before the current invasion was not of course great, and COVID rect havoc everywhere especially in bunkerred down Europe. Now that the effects of the coronavirus is diminishing and Europe tries to recover, Putin happens again. So, are we heading for another 30% downward move on the Euro, seeing once again € at ¢80? With the devstating effects this war is causing all over the Europe, we afraid even worst.
Short
by cafedefi
2
Bitcoin is Now Worth More Than the Russian RubleAfter the collapse of the Ruble in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine this week Bitcoin has now officially surpassed the Russian Ruble -- according to CoinMarketCap: "Bitcoin has a market cap of approximately $835 billion while the ruble has a market cap of around $626 billion." MOEX -- the tracker for the Moscow Stock Exchange went dark after the combination of sanctions and people pulling money out of banks/exchanges went into effect. The country is now in economic turmoil -- some are speculating that even altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin may have surpassed Russia as well. (Though the data for it is now available, yet.) While some countries are currently celebrating the economic "victory" over Russia, some analysts are expressing concern over secondary effects over oil and gas prices, potentially further worsening inflation and supply-chain woes that were already starting to mount all across the globe. With a US recession looming in the horizon, what does this mean for crypto? So far there hasn't been any indication that the losses of fiat currencies leads to the decline in the asset itself. In the long run, this may prove to be an important factor in how the industry pans out over the next few years. www.coindesk.com
Long
by RyanTanaka
Oil Short?! Yes thats right folks... and here's why. In this video we explain why we are now looking to take short positions in the Oil market. TLDR: - The fears of global supply problems from Russia/Ukraine conflict could be overplayed and that supply is able to be met by other suppliers increasing their supply within OPEC+ if Oil prices become a problem (which they already are). - Politically high Oil prices are bad for governments so expect some action from policy makers if the price continues to rise much more (already seeing these reports now). - Technical Analysis suggests we are entering levels of historic resistance. - Last week (at the height of the Russia / Ukraine outbreak the Oil market sold off significantly from the current levels we are at right now. Let me know in the comments below your own thoughts on where Oil is headed next.
TVC:USOILShort
by JoelWarby
5
The effect on oil prices of Russia's invasion of UkraineRussia's invasion of Ukraine will most likely disrupt crude supplies locally and globally. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer. Russia is the main EU supplier of crude oil. To keep it simple, since Russia is invading Ukraine, this will cause major oil supply issues for the EU. If the US and other countries in the Middle East can keep the supply tap open for the EU, then this issue will not be that much of an issue. However, Russia is a major member of OPEC. Russia holds a lot of influence in this organisation. So they could, if they wanted to, pressure other oil suppliers to not supply the EU with oil. This would only be a short-term play. Russia is heavily dependent on oil sales revenue. War is expensive. I do believe the invasion in Russia will most likely be a month max. After that, the war will be finished, but further civil wars and political instability will most likely arise in Ukraine for years to come. This effect will not be big enough, in my opinion, to drive oil prices higher. Henceforth, this oil spike will be a short-term rise. Furthermore, there is a growing concern about the imbalance between supply and demand following the opening and normalisation of the global economy after the Omicron variant subsided. In February, JP Morgan analysts projected that disruptions to oil flow from Russia could push oil prices to $120 per barrel. Oil prices last week, for the first time since 2014, reached $100 per barrel. If Russia is backed into a corner, I highly doubt it, they could curb oil exports to their advantage. Previously, Germany delayed the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Europe. As a result, Russia delayed shipments of natural gas. What stops them from doing it now? If they repeat this action, but for their oil exports, this could further lead to a short-term to medium-term rise in oil prices. The impact of oil prices on the macroeconomy in Russia is also an interesting thing to look at. If the price of oil continues to rise, according to this study (Ito, 2010). Using an unrestricted VAR (vector autoregressive) model, a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to the growth in real GDP by 0.44% in the long run. However, war is expensive, so I doubt the benefits of the increase in oil prices will outweigh the costs of this war. Furthermore, this study reports that there is clear evidence for consistent claims in other literature pieces. Oil price increases are much more important than oil price decreases (Hamilton, 2003). In summary, now that the war has begun, I only see oil prices spiking in the first couple of weeks of the invasion and not really after that. The US and other countries will likely supply the oil needed to sustain the EU. Winter is over, and the weather is getting warmer. Oil demand will most likely decrease. The major play with crude oil futures is right now. If the war is prolonged, as Sun Tzu states, no country has ever profited from a prolonged war - the oil prices may reach 110–120 in the next six months. Especially if the supply issues are not fixed and the outcome of the war is political instability. Technical analysis The Commodity Channel Index is a technical indicator that, as the name suggests, was designed to be used with commodities. If you want to, you can use it for a variety of assets. But I prefer to use it with commodities. It measures the current price level relative to the average price level over a given period. When it passes +/-100, it signals overbought/oversold levels. However, the CCI is an unbound oscillator, which means there are no upside or downside limits. So, interpreting overbought and oversold levels is subjective. Furthermore, there are two problems with this indicator. First, the indicator does not take into account fundamental events. So, a political event or supply shock will be seen as an overbought level. However, because the CCI is an unbound oscillator, it can continue to rise. Second, unlike chart patterns, indicators lag in time. So, the CCI will take time to show a decrease in price on its CCI values. This means you may be seeing an overbought signal, even after the price has decreased and the price increase is over. Regardless, right now I believe the CCI shows a great piece of analysis - that is the CCI cycle represented by the yellow line. Henceforth, I will still be using it for my analysis. The CCI indicator data input is Length 20, Timeframe 1 Month. The pink boxes represent overbought and oversold levels with their corresponding price rectangles on the chart. As you can see from the yellow line, the price approximately follows a cycle. Over the last 16 years, the cycles have been reaching lower lows and lower highs. Currently, the rise from the last pink box is not creating a big enough spike in the overbought level in the CCI indicator, suggesting that the price can continue to rise. The CCI is represented by the yellow line, showing that the oil price is following a cycle. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine is over, you can expect the oil price to fall along with the CCI. However, I expect this to be 6 months after the invasion has concluded. This is an important cycle that the price of oil has followed for the last 16 years. The two orange lines represent all-time highs and lows. The two red lines represent a "box" of resistance and support. As you can see from Oct 2010 to Aug 2014, for almost 4 years, the crude oil price stayed in this region. This region will provide very important support and resistance to the oil price level if it reaches this point. Using Fibonacci levels, we can see the oil price has been following a support and resistance pattern equal to the support and resistance of the Fibonacci levels. Right now, it has broken out of the nearest Fibonacci level that rests around $98. This will provide a level of support to the oil price. Along with that, there is another support level represented by the top blue line. Right now, in the event of stalling behaviour, I see the oil price staying between $97 – $105. The price may poke above or below during this time. However, my confidence level in this support is not too high. The resistance and support levels given by the Fibonacci sequence, the red and blue lines, are strong. But the price range in this region seems too small. So, if the price stays here, it could only be for a couple of weeks to months. Following other price behaviour in the past. Also, as you can see, the price touched $100 and then fell and has stayed there for the last week. The reason for this is that the $100 price level is a great level of resistance. I wouldn't be surprised if many traders used this price level as their take-profits. In summary, the invasion of Ukraine has been going on for nearly a week now. The oil price has shot up, but not to a large degree. I'm guessing the supply chain is holding through and the markets have probably priced in this invasion, hence why the price hasn’t shot up that far as you would expect. If the price stalls, it should stay between $98 to $105. The key support and resistance levels. The price, in my opinion, may poke through the lower level if the war seems to be ending or through the top if the war creates problems for the oil market. I don’t see the price going above the bottom red line. Only if there are major supply issues with oil or geopolitical events related to oil. If the price does break the bottom line of resistance, then the price should only be there for a short time and eventually return down. Unless, of course, the geopolitical/supply issue persists, in which case the price is likely to remain above the bottom red line. After that, I expect to see the price of oil decrease and continue in its CCI (yellow line) cycle.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
FCPO continue 6400 or Short Term Correction?FCPO set their biggest weekly gains in more than 9 months despite a sharp drop on Friday, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine stoked worries about global edible oil supply. I believe who traded last week hopefully you were enjoy the roller coaster ride in the market. For your information, Ukraine is a major key supplier of grains and oilseeds globally, any further threats to trade will shift demand for other vegetable oil such as SBO and CPO. As we all knew that the unresolved Ukraine crisis may further erode the supply of vegetable oil, grains, crude and natural gas due to the grain flows disruption in Black Sea export region with all transportation avenue were disrupted by military operation. Besides, India stopped buying sunflower oil following ports suspended operation on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India pivot to alternate oils could further support Malaysian palm oil and US soyoil. On the other hand, surging in COVID cases also keep palm oil prices elevated for 1H2022 as shortage of labour and supplies. Furthermore, worsening yields in Argentina and Brazil pushed importers to buy from alternative supplier. Technical View: Market uptrend remains with immediate support at 5825. Stochastic K% line is crossing down at overbought zone in both weekly and daily chart which indicates reversal signal We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5625 Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5885 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6023 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 5747 TP2 5471 Long if stay above 6200 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6062 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6338 TP2 6614 ** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96