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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 3/28Summary: More yield curve inversion in bond markets raised eyebrows while a drop in oil prices helped equities rally. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. I had a vacation last week and decided to stay away from the computer as much as possible, so no Daily Updates for the past week. Overall a constructive week for the market, but fear-driven volatility persists as global events unfold and the yield curve inverts for the first time since 2008. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 28, 2022 Facts: +1.31%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 70% Green Good: 100% closing range, consistent gains after morning dip. Bad: Lower volume, and advance/decline ratio below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick green body above a medium lower wick. No upper wick. Advance/Decline: 0.64, three declining stocks for every two advancing Indexes: SPX (+0.71%), DJI (+0.27%), RUT (+0.00%), VIX (-5.67%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.67%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.27%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.45%) and Energy (XLE -2.48%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview More yield curve inversion in bond markets raised eyebrows while a drop in oil prices helped equities rally. The Nasdaq gained +1.31% for the day, continuing the rally since March 14. Volume was lower than the previous day and there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. So although the rally continues, it is slowing. That could be constructive, allowing for moving averages to catch up. Or it could mean another dip is ahead. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.71%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.27%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) stayed flat. The VIX Volatility Index declined -5.67%, continuing to drop back to normal levels, but still elevated. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.67%) led the sector list, helped by Tesla's (TSLA) 8% gain. Real Estate (XLRE +1.27%) was the next best sector. Materials (XLB -0.45%) and Energy (XLE -2.48%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The Energy sector was brought down by a dip in oil prices. The 5y Treasury Yield rose above the 30y yield for the first time since February 2006. Inversions signal future recessions. The inversion in 2006 preceeded the 2008 Financial Crisis and a 60% correction in US equity markets. Brent Oil fell by -8.64% but remained above $105. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.32% today. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 5y and 2y Treasury yields advanced. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold both declined sharply. The put/call ratio declined to 0.654. The big six all gained today with Tesla (TSLA) leading the way with a +8.03% gain. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) followed with +2.56% and +2.31% gains. With Amazon moving above its 200d moving average, now all six are above the three key moving average lines. Tesla topped the broader mega-cap list as well. Big oil companies were at the bottom of the list with Royal Dutch Shell (SHEL) having the biggest loss, declining by -2.90%. The Daily Update Growth List did very well with only a handful of declining stocks in the list. At the top of the list was DoorDash (DASH), gaining +8.68%. GrowGeneration (GRWG) declined by -4.05%, ending down at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead How Price Index data for January will be available in the morning. After the market opens, we'll see CB Consumer Confidence for March and the JOLTs Job Openings for February. More Fed members are scheduled to speak tomorrow and investors will be watching for any aggressively hawkish comments. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock comes in the afternoon. Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Chewy (CHWY), RH (RH) are among some of the interesting earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq seems to have support at 14,000 and is heading toward the support/resistance area of 14,500. If the trend from the 3/14 low continues, we can expect a +1.89% advance for Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.33%. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -0.72% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It will be interesting to watch how the market reacts to more inversion in the yield curve. The higher yields on shorter-term Treasuries could be a combination of worries about the war in Ukraine, but also could be over fears of a recession induced by the Fed's attempts to control inflation. Typically, an inversion signals a recession that is still months to a couple of years away. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
RTY UpdateLooks to me like the market just wants to bounce sideways, I hope that's the case because sideways rangebound trading is just about the easiest way to make money. In any case, if you're still bullish, wait until MFI goes oversold before buying the dip. I woke up late today and missed the morning drop so staying out for now. Garbage stocks are tempting but I'll probably have to wait to see what happens tomorrow. Might buy a few CHWY puts or something EOD if there's no afternoon rebound. I told you guys short squeezes always run 3 or 4 days, looks like that's over. Could just go sideways though.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
Daily Market Update for 3/18Summary: The Nasdaq had its best week since November 2020, rallying more than 10% from Monday's low to close with a +8.18% gain. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 18, 2022 Facts: +2.05%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 89% Green Good: High volume advance, great closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body, tiny lower wick, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.86, more than three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.17%), DJI (+0.80%), RUT (+1.02%), VIX (-7.01%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.11%) and Technology (XLK +2.05%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.09%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq had its best week since November 2020, rallying more than 10% from Monday's low to close with a +8.18% gain. The tech-dominated index rose +2.05% for the day. Volume was much higher thanks to a quadruple witching day where derivative contracts all expire the same day, causing an increase in volume. The candle is 89% green body with a 99% closing range, leaving behind a small lower wick created right after the market opened. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +1.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +0.80%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +1.02%. The VIX Volatility Index fell further, declining -7.01% today. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors gained today. Growth sectors led again with Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.11%) and Technology (XLK +2.05%) at the top of the sector list. Energy (XLE -0.09%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) were the two declining sectors. Existing Home Sales for February declined -7.2% month-over-month. Much more than the forecast of a -1.0% decline. Brent Oil remained above $100, closing at $105 today. The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.22%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yieldS declined while the 2y Treasury yield advanced. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Gold and Silver declined. Timber continues to rise back toward its 2022 highs after dropping sharply this month. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.676. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the middle of the Fear range as it moves back toward neutral. A drop in market volatility and less demand for safe-haven assets is driving the move in the index. The big six made significant progress in their charts today. Nvidia (NVDA) is outperforming in the current rally, gaining +6.81% and well above its moving average lines. All six are above their 21d exponential moving average. Five are above their 50d moving average. Three of the six are above their 200d moving average. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list with a +7.90% gain, beating out Nvidia for the top spot. Verizon Communications (VZ) was at the bottom of the list, declining -2.98%. In the Daily Update Growth List, UP Fintech (TIGR) was at the top. The company benefited from both the momentum in Chinese stocks and a great earnings report and outlook. The stock soared +33.66% today. The stock is up +73.42% for the week and over 100% from its low on Monday. The other Chinese stocks in the list also dominated the top spots. Only two stocks declined in the growth list, Solar Edge (SEDG) declined -0.66% and Penn National Gaming (PENN) lost -0.11%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic data scheduled for Monday, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak in the morning. Nike (NKE), Pinduoduo (PDD), and Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved above the 13,800 and closed right just above the 50d moving average line. The one-day and five-day trend lines and the trend line from the 3/14 low all point to a gain of around 2% on Monday if the current momentum continues. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I thought there might be a pullback in indexes today as investors take profits and protect from war news over the weekend. The optimism and high volume from expiring derivative contracts were enough to keep the strong rally from Monday's low alive. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/17Summary: All sectors rose on Thursday as investors' worries eased about interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. However, oil prices are on the rise again and could create more volatility to close the week. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 17, 2022 Facts: +1.33%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 84% Green Good: Closing range, support at 21d EMA, advance/decline Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 2.85, almost three advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.23%), DJI (+1.23%), RUT (+1.69%), VIX (-3.75%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.44%) and Materials (XLB +1.92%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.69%) and Utilities (XLU +0.42%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview All sectors rose on Thursday as investors' worries eased about interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. However, oil prices are on the rise again and could create more volatility to close the week. The Nasdaq rose +1.33%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is covered by an 84% green body. A tiny lower wick formed when the index dipped to the 21d EMA. The closing range of 98% comes after a late afternoon rally. There were nearly three advancing stocks for every declining stock. Small-caps outperformed today with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +1.69%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) both rose by +1.23%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -3.75%. All S&P 500 sectors advanced. Energy (XLE +3.44%) and Materials (XLB +1.92%) were the top two as oil prices and commodity prices rose again. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.69%) and Utilities (XLU +0.42%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Building Permits and Housing Starts in February were higher than forecasted. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in less than expected. There were only 214,000 claims vs the forecast of 220,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for March showed much better conditions than expected, with the index registering 27.4 vs the expectation of 15.0. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by -0.39%. US Treasury yields didn't move much but all declined a bit today. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continued to rebound higher from their low points on Monday. Brent Oil closed the day above $100 again. Silver and Gold both were higher. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.709. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range from Extreme Fear yesterday. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 46.68 from exposure of 42.58 last week. The big six all rose but more modestly than the previous two days. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest gain, rising by +3.73% today. Amazon (AMZN) was next with a +2.70% gain. Nvidia (NVDA) closed above its 50d moving average, gaining +1.10%, and is not above all three moving averages I track. Tesla topped the broader mega-cap list with its gain. At the bottom of the list was Alibaba (BABA), declining -4.39% as investors take profits from yesterday's massive rise for Chinese stocks. Lemonade (LMND) topped the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +14.54%. The Chinese stocks that topped the list yesterday, were at the bottom of the list today. Niu Technologies (NIU) declined by -6.51%, landing at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead After the market opens on Friday, we'll have the Existing Home Sales stats for February. Friday is a quadruple witching day for the market which means that derivatives for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire on the same day creating more volatility than usual in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose in the morning but then dipped back to the 21d EMA where it got support and then rose higher for the rest of the day. The trend line from the 3/14 low is pointing at a +2.81% advance if this current rally can continue. The one-day trend line ends with a +1.48% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -0.29% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market seems much more optimistic over the last few days. There's a big spike in stocks that are over their 50d moving average as the gains since Tuesday were broadly shared across the market. Still, after three days of big gains and investors wanting to protect from war news over the weekend, we may see some selling to end the week. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
S&P AnalysisLet's look at the money-supply adjusted S&P. If you're not familiar with money-supply adjusted charts, just know that money supply expansion always fuels the rise in asset prices first. Historically this takes about 6-18 months to play out. Now ask yourself, how long has it been since the 2020 mega-easing policy response of the FED? It seems like those tailwinds are now behind us and fading. In 2020, it sure seemed like we were headed into a bear market, there was a sharp correction down, but at the risk of losing capital, market participants had to resort to obeying the master that is monetary policy, or risk losing capital. Sorry for all of the lines and arrows here but stick with me for a minute :) It's important to define what the criteria for a "decline" is in order to know what to expect. I don't believe the coercion in 2020 can be definitively described as a correction/decline for various reasons, but let's try to keep it technical here, in terms of what the chart tells us. Before a DECLINE, there were a few things that played out together in 2001 and 2008: 1) A declining 100W SMA for 1 year or longer. 2) RSI 14 SMA 14 made a quick break to the 30s/40s area and STAYED there for longer than 6 months. 3) There was a few years of divergence in the RSI 14 SMA 14. Before a RECOVERY, there were a few things that played out together in 2003 and 2009: 1) Price broke out above the 100W SMA. 2) RSI 14 SMA 14 made a break above 50. 3) Once #1 and #2 took place, the 100W SMA began rising. The market is still indecisive at the moment. Our criteria of a DECLINE has not been met. At the same time, neither has our criteria for a RECOVERY, because we did not see a DECLINE. Dip buyers are buying in with all they've got. But is that really enough to prop up a 50 trillion dollar stock market (before you account for derivatives)? I must admit, it's really hard to be completely bullish or bearish here. I'm tending on the side of bearishness because it means that I have less to lose overall. I'd rather lose less than gain more at this point. The market isn't exactly showing raging bullish potential here with looming rising interest rates. But we haven't seen any definitive bearish signs either. Which means we could be in store for some complex correction action until our "DECLINE" criteria is finally met. One thing is clear though, there's so many traders willing to buy the dip right now, it's safe to say that most of them have never experienced devastating losses, which is usually a sign of looming losses to come. Thanks for reading and I hope this gives some perspective on the current risk of the assets market. Don't forget to hedge your bets!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by fringe_chartist
What is going on in Small Caps?After successfully predicting a 10-15% decline in Russell 2000 now we need to look at it once again..! I think the top of the orange box could be a strong resistance level and the relief rally will be ended there..! Also, this could be the SOW part of Wyckoff model: Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:RUT
by Moshkelgosha
2
Daily Market Update for 3/16Summary: The Fed brought no new surprises today, but the initial reaction caused a dip in indexes that reversed into a late after rally higher. Chinese stocks took off after the government pledged to support the stock market and not penalize companies with foreign listings. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 16, 2022 Facts: +3.77%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 71% Green Good: Closing range of 99%, higher volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up, large green body over long lower wick, not upper wick Advance/Decline: 3.34, more than three advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+2.24%), DJI (+1.55%), RUT (+3.14%), VIX (-10.59%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.41%) and Technology (XLK +3.25%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.18%) and Energy (XLE -0.46%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed brought no new surprises today, but the initial reaction caused a dip in indexes that reversed into a late after rally higher. Chinese stocks took off after the government pledged to support the stock market and not penalize companies with foreign listings. The Nasdaq closed +3.77% higher for the day. The index opened with a gap up which faded as the Fed interest rate news approached. When the news hit, the Nasdaq fell -1.92% in about 30 minutes but then reversed and climbed +3.42% from the intraday low. The wild session created a long lower wick that sites below a 71% green body and a 99% closing range. There were more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advance +3.14%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +2.24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +1.55%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -10.59%. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors gained for the day. Growth sectors led with Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.41%) and Technology (XLK +3.25%) at the top of the list. Utilities (XLU -0.18%) and Energy (XLE -0.46%) were the two losing sectors. The Fed's decision was to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, a widely anticipated level for the first-rate hike. However, the Fed also announced plans to take on inflation aggressively with up to seven more rate hikes this year to end the year with a 1.75% to 2% interest rate. That aggressive stance was likely the reason for the initial reaction from investors. In other economic news, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales for February were less than forecast. Export Prices were higher and Import Prices were lower than forecast. Crude Oil Inventories were higher than expected. The US Dollar index (DXY) fell by -0.62% with most of that coming after the Fed announcement. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y Yield rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil topped $100 briefly but ended the day with a decline. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.795. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved closer to Neutral but remained in the Extreme Fear range. All of the big six advanced. Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Nvidia (NVDA) rose above their 21d EMA lines. Amazon (AMZN) closed above both its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list with a massive +36.76% gain as the Chinese government vowed to support public companies. Stocks at the bottom of the mega-cap list all had less than 1% declines. Johnson & Johnson was at the bottom of the list with a -0.92% decline. 23 stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained over 10%. The six Chinese stocks in the list gained over 25%. The top stock was Futu Holdings which soared by +39.54%. Not a single stock in the list declined. CrowdStrike (CRWD) had the smallest gain, advancing by +0.54%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data for February will come in the morning. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Just before the market opens, the Industrial Production numbers for February will be released. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index met resistance at the 21d EMA in the morning, then got support at 13,000 in the afternoon dip, and finally climbed back to close above the 21d EMA. Because of the sharp afternoon rally, even the one-day regression trend line points to a decline tomorrow, which would be -0.96%. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, it would mean a -2.95% decline. The trend line from the 2/10 high points to a -4.89%. Just for some optimism, if we followed the trend line from the 3/14 low, it points to a +2.58% gain for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up What a wild reaction to the Fed announcement. It may take some time to sort out where investors in both equities and bonds see the impact of the more hawkish fed. We might see some more volatility over the next few days as investors react to the Fed's new plans and any developments in Ukraine. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/15Summary: Oil prices dropped below 99.01 and the Producer Price Index indicated some relief on inflation, giving some assurance to investors that the Fed might not get too hawkish with interest rate hikes. That helped markets bounce to the upside on Tuesday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 15, 2022 Facts: +2.92%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 93%, Body: 74% Green Good: Solid green candle, higher high/low, great closing range Bad: Couldn't quite get above 13,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body, with a lower wick longer than upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.33, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+2.14%), DJI (+1.82%), RUT (+1.40%), VIX (-6.11%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +3.36%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.35%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.79%) and Energy (XLE -3.66%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Oil prices dropped below 99.01 and the Producer Price Index indicated some relief on inflation, giving some assurance to investors that the Fed might not get too hawkish with interest rate hikes. That helped markets bounce to the upside on Tuesday. The Nasdaq rose +2.92%. Volume was lower than the previous day but still higher than the 50-day average volume. The candle has a 74% green body with a short lower wick and barely any upper wick, ending the day with a 93% closing range. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +2.14%, helped by the large mega-caps that performed well for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +1.82%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +1.40%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -6.11%, but remains elevated. All S&P 500 sectors except for the Energy sector gained. Growth sectors topped the list. Technology (XLK +3.36%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.35%) were the top-performing sectors. Energy (XLE -3.66%) dropped as the price of oil plunged from its recent highs. The Producer Price Index for February showed growth in prices of 0.8% compared to the forecast of 0.9%. The Core Producer Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose by only 0.2% but was expected to rise 0.6%. The NY Empire State Manufacturing index showed worsening conditions for the sector, registering -11.80 compared to the forecast of +7.0. Brent Oil fell below $100 for the first time since prices soared in the first week of March. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined by -0.08%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y yield declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold prices continued to fall. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.907. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the Extreme Fear area. The big six all gained today. Nvidia (NVDA) led the list of six with a +7.70% gain. Tesla (TSLA) advanced +4.63%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) both gained around 3.9%. Nvidia and Tesla also topped the broader mega-cap list. Only four mega-caps declined. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were at the bottom of the list with -5.06% and -5.69% declines. Peloton rose +11.93% after getting positive commentary from an analyst at Bernstein. Only three stocks in the list had a decline, led by Sumo Logic which lost -1.42%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead In the morning, Retail Sales data for February will be available. Sales are expected to be less than in January. Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens. The biggest news for tomorrow will be the Fed meeting and their interest rate decision which will come at 2p in the afternoon. Investors will also be interested in the interest rate projections for the rest of this year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq returned to the 13,000 support/resistance area. It was not able to close above the line, but could possibly move back above it tomorrow. If the one-day trend line continues, expect a +1.28% advance for Wednesday. If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high, that would mean a -1.51% decline. The five-day trend line points to a -2.88% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Finally, oil prices and the producer price index relieved some pressure from inflation worries. Markets reacted positively to the news and had a nice bump to the upside today. But investors will be even more sensitive to what comes from the Fed meeting tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/14Summary: Investors continued to move out of equities as the war continues in Ukraine and the Fed heads toward its first rate hike since the start of the pandemic. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 14, 2022 Facts: -2.04%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 7%, Body: 59% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Long upper wick from failed rally, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick over a thick red body Advance/Decline: 0.36, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.74%), DJI (+0.00%), RUT (-1.92%), VIX (+3.32%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +1.26%) and Health (XLV +0.71%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.85%) and Energy (XLE -2.99%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors continued to move out of equities as the war continues in Ukraine and the Fed heads toward its first rate hike since the start of the pandemic. The Nasdaq declined by -2.04%. A rally in the morning failed to hold, creating a long upper wick above a thick red body covering 59% of the candle. The closing range was dismal at 7%, leaving behind a tiny lower wick. Volume was higher than the previous day. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) avoided a loss for the day, but only climbed a fraction, ending the day even at +0.00%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.74%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -1.92%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +3.32%. Four of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Financials (XLF +1.26%) and Health (XLV +0.71%) were at the top of the sector list. Technology (XLK -1.85%) and Energy (XLE -2.99%) at the bottom. The Energy sector is pulling back from recent gains as the price of oil drops. Brent Oil dropped to $103.55 per barrel. The US Dollar index (DXY) stayed about even, declining by just -0.04%. US Treasury Yields all rose sharply. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped. Silver and Gold both declined. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.929. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Extreme Fear but edged toward Neutral. All of the big six declined. Tesla (TSLA) again was the worst of the six, declining -3.64%. Microsoft (MSFT) had the smallest decline but still dropped by -1.30%. Pfizer (PFE) topped the mega-cap list for a second day, advancing +3.94% today. Likewise, Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the list again, declining by -10.32%. Only three of the Daily Update Growth List stocks advanced. PayPal (PYPL) topped the list with a +0.31% gain. Six stocks in the list declined more than 10%, with five of those stocks being Chinese companies. Ehang Holding (EH) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -16.45%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The February Producer Price Index (PPI) data will arrive in the morning. The data provides a forward-looking view on inflation pressures. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will also be available. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be published in the afternoon after the market closes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved toward its 40-month exponential moving average which provided a bottom for corrections in the past. The only corrections to break through that line are 2000, 2008, and 2020. If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high and the five-day trend line, that would mean a +1.64% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line leads to a -3.29% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I saw some headlines today that said investors were moving into safe-haven assets but today we see the US dollar is steady, there are higher Treasury yields (selling bonds) and lower Silver and Gold prices. Cryptocurrencies aren't moving all that much. There certainly wasn't much interest in risk assets either. The Fed meeting comes on Wednesday. Unless some huge surprise rate increase comes, I'd expect the market to move opposite of what it's doing now. Investors tend to overprotect heading into these events. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/11Summary: Markets ended a choppy week with another losing session. Growth sectors sold off the most as investors moved to safer assets for the weekend. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 11, 2022 Facts: -2.18%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 94% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Mostly red body, lost support at 13,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, long red body, tiny wicks Advance/Decline: 0.44, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.30%), DJI (-0.69%), RUT (-1.59%), VIX (+1.72%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU -0.34%) and Financials (XLF -0.71%) at the top. Communications (XLC -1.80%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.92%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets ended a choppy week with another losing session. Growth sectors sold off the most as investors moved to safer assets for the weekend. The Nasdaq closed lower by -2.18% on higher volume than the previous day. The 94% red body is surrounded by tiny upper and lower wicks. A 3% closing range represents the selling throughout the day and into the final minutes of the market. There were more than two stocks that declined for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) slid -1.30% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.69%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -1.59%. The VIX Volatility index rose by +1.72%. All S&P 500 sectors declined today. Utilities (XLU -0.34%) and Financials (XLF -0.71%) were at the top. Communications (XLC -1.80%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.92%) had the biggest declines. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment for March were lower than forecast, possibly weighed down by the war in Ukraine. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.61%. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y yields rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil prices rose but remained below $110 a barrel. Silver and Gold declined, but not much compared to the rising strength of the US dollar. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.863. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 42.58, from 30.3 the previous week. The survey of money managers is taken on Wednesday evenings and the market rose this past Wednesday before dipping again on Thursday and Friday. All of the big six declined. Tesla (TSLA) fell the most, losing -5.12%. Pfizer (PFE) was the top mega-cap for the, advancing +2.17%. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining by -6.68%. Only two of the stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained. Chewy (CHWY) rose +2.27% while Solar Edge (SEDG) gained +0.89%. Five of the growth stocks declined more than 10%. DocuSign (DOCU) fell -20.10% after providing weak guidance and an analyst downgraded the stock and dropped its price target from $175 to $100. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much scheduled US economic news to start the week. Wednesday will bring the Fed's meeting and final interest rate decisions. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq held for a while around the 13,000 mark but then dropped below that area later in the afternoon. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +1.79% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 2/10 high, points to a +0.53% advance. The one-day trend leads to a -1.56% decline to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a crazy week. It looked like investors were optimistic on Wednesday but the gains were given back to losses by the end of the day Friday. Given the big decline was likely from investors closing positions to avoid bad news over the weekend, we might see a bounce on Monday. However, expect more volatility until we find a firm bottom with support. The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
RTY ProjectionI thought this crap looked really familiar, here's the COVID rebound upside down. COVID stocks now tanking much like the way they rose off the bottom, every earnings just gets worse and worse. I maintain bearishness but watch out for the Fed next week. Also, just because garbage stocks are tanking doesn't mean they tank every day, you can't expect stocks to drop 10% 2 days in a row, which is why I dumped CHWY puts yesterday. All foreign markets are already at pre-COVID levels which is why they bounced and pumped US futures. US market isn't there yet. NQ might not reach preCOVID levels because FAANG stocks (minus FB) are doing well, but small caps should all return back to pre COVID levels eventually. Some already have.... I no longer care if the weekly goes oversold, there's no appetite for garbage stocks. The weekly indicators stayed overbought for an extended time during the pump. Now everything is inverted. Gonna be tough trading because the market will gap up more often than not since Europe already hit bottom.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
RTY UpdateIt appears the market has lost all appetite for money losing "growth" stocks that aren't growing. My trade strategy is still valid, short garbage on any pops, they can pump futures but they can't make people buy. Let the algos hold the bag. I think every garbage stock is going to SFIX it's way to single digits, just gotta avoid the pumps, remember the 3 day short squeeze rule (today was the 4th day, lol) Euros are bullish and could pump futures, but I don't think gap direction matters if today is any indication. I think the market will be oversold for the Fed press conf Wed, so avoid holding a position Wed afternoon regardless of trend pattern. This drop has nothing to do with Russia, it was DOCU that caused it. I expect a follow through Monday, though it might reverse in the afternoon. Liquidity for crap stocks disappearing quick, look at AFRM, SMSI, DOCU, etc
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
Daily Market Update for 3/10Summary: A brief update for today due to time constraints. Inflation data continues to surprise higher than forecast, giving more reason for the Fed to take action with higher interest rates. Notes A brief update for today due to time constraints. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 10, 2022 Facts: -0.95%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 85%, Body: 15% Green Good: Closing range, long lower wick. Support at 13,000. Lower volume on decline. Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin green body above a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.66, three declining stocks for every two advancing Indexes: SPX (-0.43%), DJI (-0.34%), RUT (-0.23%), VIX (+0.63%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.06%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.71%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.95%) and Technology (XLK -1.75%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A brief update for today due to time constraints. Inflation data continues to surprise higher than forecast, giving more reason for the Fed to take action with higher interest rates. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.95% decline. The candle has a 15% green body above a longer lower wick that resulted in a high 85% closing range. The support at 13,000 is positive and will hopefully continue to hold in the next few sessions. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations for March will be available in the morning after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped in the morning to the 13,000 support area but then recovered to close above the area. The one-day trend line points to a +0.63% advance for Friday. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 2/10 high end with a -1.16% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After oil prices soared and Nickel prices rose on a massive short squeeze, the inflation data just piled on with bad news. So the positive is that the market didn't react more to the downside. It's good to see support at 13,000 and we have two days of the closing range above 80%. The expectation for Friday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 3/9Summary: Investors showed a day of bullish optimism as oil prices found a top and receded sharply. The volatility is not likely over, but it's good to see support coming back into equity indexes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 9, 2022 Facts: +3.59%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 83%, Body: 54% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, great closing range Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Half body in middle of visible upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 3.09, three advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+2.57%), DJI (+2.00%), RUT (+2.71%), VIX (-7.63%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +3.96%) and Financials (XLF +3.67%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.71%) and Energy (XLE -3.06%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors showed a day of bullish optimism as oil prices found a top and receded sharply. The volatility is not likely over, but it's good to see support coming back into equity indexes. The Nasdaq gained +3.59% today. Volume was lower than the previous day but higher than the 50d average volume. The candle has a 54% green body that sits in the middle of visible upper and lower wicks. The lower wick is a bit longer, forming just after an open significantly higher than yesterday's close. The closing range was great at 84%, leaving behind a small upper wick formed in the late afternoon. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The tech-heavy Nasdaq had the best gain for the day. Small-caps came next with a +2.71% advance for the Russell 2000 (RUT). The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +2.57%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) finished with a +2.00% gain despite being held back by big oil declines. The VIX Volatility Index receded -7.63%, although it still remains elevated. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced. Technology (XLK +3.96%) and Financials (XLF +3.67%) were at the top of the sector list. The Financials sector was helped to second place by higher Treasury yields. Utilities (XLU -0.71%) and Energy (XLE -3.06%) were the only two declining sectors. The biggest economic news was Brent Oil prices falling -12.79%, pulling back to near $110. The price decline came after the United Arab Emirates supported increasing production. Not all the optimism came from Oil prices receding. The JOLTs Job openings report showed more demand than expected for employees. There were 11.263 million openings in January compared to the forecast of 10.925 million. The US Dollar index (DXY) fell back by -1.09% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose and the gap between long-term and short-term yields widened. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved upward, opposite Treasury prices as investors show a bit more confidence in corporations. Silver and Gold fell back from recent highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.886. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Fear range but inched toward Neutral. All big six mega-caps gained for the day with Nvidia (NVDA) rising by +6.97% to lead the list. Only Alphabet (GOOG) regained its 21d EMA line, climbing +4.97% today. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the top of the broader mega-cap list, gaining +8.43%. Only a handful of mega-caps declined with the bottom three being oil companies. Exxon Mobil (XOM) had the worst decline, falling by -5.68%. All but two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. MongoDB (MDB) surprised investors with a great earnings beat and soared +18.58%. Three other stocks, DataDog (DDOG), NIO Inc. (NIO), and Block (SQ) advanced more than 10%. SolarEdge (SEDG) and Chewy (CHWY) were the only two stocks to decline but only fell by -0.59% and -0.93% respectively. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Price Index data for February will be released on Thursday morning before the market opens. The numbers will give another look into how bad inflation is month-over-month and year-over-year. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Earnings reports for tomorrow include Oracle (ORCL), JD.com (JD), and Rivian Automotive (RIVN). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened above 13,000 and moved its way back toward the 21d EMA. If the one-day trend continues, expect a +1.45% gain for Thursday. If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high, it would mean a -1.82% decline. The five-day trend line points to a -3.55% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Some positive news on oil production helped markets across commodities, currencies, bonds, and equities all reverse from their recent moves. Overall the data shows an optimistic tone for investors. However, nothing is ever easy and we're likely to continue to see volatility before consistent gains return to stocks. More importantly, we hope for an end to the loss of lives in Ukraine. Stop the war. The expectation for the market tomorrow is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/8Summary: An intraday rally across equities faded as oil price volatility kept investors guessing. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 8, 2022 Facts: -0.28%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 26%, Body: 1% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Lower high, lower low, failed intraday rally Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin body in lower half of candle, very long upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.87, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.56%), RUT (+0.60%), VIX (-3.62%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.21%) at the top. Health (XLV -2.04%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -2.70%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview An intraday rally across equities faded as oil price volatility kept investors guessing. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.28% decline. Volume was higher than the previous day as an intraday rally attracted bulls. The rally failed after topping 13,000 and the Nasdaq closed near where it opened. The 1% red body is below a long upper wick. The closing range was 26%. The lower high and lower low continues a downtrend. There were more declining than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was able to hold onto a 0.60% gain. The small-cap index gained nearly 3% intraday. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.72% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.56%. The VIX Volatility Index is still high but declined -3.62% today. Growth sectors rose to the top of the S&P 500 sector list, but only two sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.21%) held onto gains. Health (XLV -2.04%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -2.70%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Trade Balance data for January showed more imports than expected relative to exports. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was higher than expected at 2.8 million barrels vs an expected shortfall of -0.833 million barrels. The US Dollar index (DXY) finally pulled back from its recent gains, declining -0.16% today. US Treasury Yields gained and the gap between long term and short term yields widened some. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Oil topped $130 a barrel intraday but settled at $127. Silver and Gold rose sharply. Aluminum futures fell back from recent gains. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.801. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained deep in the Extreme Fear area. Three of the big six mega-caps gained today. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOG) climbed by +2.46%, +0.76%, and +0.57% respectively. The other three all lost around -1%, giving up intraday gains. Chevron (CVX) was the best mega-cap for the day, gaining +5.24%. Coca-Cola Company (KO) had the biggest loss in the mega-cap list, losing -3.96% after the company joined other corporations exiting Russia. GrowGeneration (GRWG) was at the top of the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +11.07%. New energy stocks, Enphase (ENPH) and SolarEdge (SEDG) followed in the list with +10% gains. Ath the bottom of the list was CrowdStrike (CRWD), which fell -6.35%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead JOLTs Job Openings data for January will be available after the market opens on Wednesday. We will also get the weekly Crude Oil Inventories data in the morning. There is a 10y Treasury Note auction in the afternoon. MongoDB (MDB), H&R Block (HRB), and StoneCo (STNE) are some of the earnings reports tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq made an attempt to get back above 13,000 today, but closed below the area, continuing a downtrend over the past five days. The one-day trend line is upward and points to the same area as the trend line from the 2/10 high. That would be a +2.13% advance for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a -1.94% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was disappointing to see the intraday rally fade, but I think we should expect more of these whipsaw moves as good news and bad news emerges over the Ukraine conflict, the oil crisis, and potential Fed actions this month. I also don't think we are at the bottom of this correction. We can expect to see 12,000 before we get a solid support area and the potential to move higher. Still, expectations are not predictions. The expectation for tomorrow is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/7Summary: Investors continued to dump risky equities as the price of oil seems to have no ceiling. The Nasdaq closed more than 20% below its all-time high as it enters a bear market status. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 7, 2022 Facts: -3.62%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 95% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Huge decline on high volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Tiny upper wick over huge red body, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.33, three declining stocks for every one advancing Indexes: SPX (-2.95%), DJI (-2.37%), RUT (-2.48%), VIX (+13.98%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.48%) and Utilities (XLU +1.30%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.66%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -4.90%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors continued to dump risky equities as the price of oil seems to have no ceiling. The Nasdaq closed more than 20% below its all-time high as it enters a bear market status. The Nasdaq dropped another -0.362% as it approaches the low of 2/24. Volume was higher than the previous day to mark another big distribution day for the index. The candle is 95% red body under a tiny upper wick. The closing range of 1% marks an intraday that was in nearly constant decline. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -2.95%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -2.37%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -2.48%. The VIX Volatility Index soared +13.98% to close again at its highest point since February 2021. Only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors avoided losses for the day. Energy (XLE +1.48%) continued to climb and Utilities (XLU +1.30%) benefited from its defensive status when equities our out of favor. Growth sectors of Technology (XLK -3.66%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -4.90%) were again at the bottom of the sector list. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.74%. 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose, but the gap between long-term and short-term yields tightened, meaning the short-term outlook is still lower. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell sharply. Brent Oil rose above 120, its highest level in 10 years. The safe-haven of Gold reached $2000, its highest level since August 2020. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.751. The CNN Fear & Greed index is well in the Extreme Fear area. All big six mega-caps declined for the day. Nvidia (NVDA) had the most significant decline, losing -6.91% and switching positions again with Taiwan Semiconductor in the mega-cap list. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were the top mega-caps for today, gaining +3.60% and +2.14%. Nvidia was the worst in the mega-cap list. There were only a handful of stocks in the Daily Update Growth List that gained today. Robinhood (HOOD) topped the list with a +4.20% advance. Six stocks in the list dropped more than 10%. Niu Technologies (NIU) dropped by -16.86% on investors' concerns over margin contraction due to higher material costs. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Trade Balance data for January comes in the morning. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock updates arrive after the market closes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below the 13,000 support area, only pausing at that level briefly. Zooming out much longer term for the Nasdaq, the 40 month EMA tends to be a bottom, except in extreme corrections like the 2000 tech bubble and 2008 financial crisis. The index dipped just below the 40m EMA in 2020. On the current course, we would meet up with the 40d EMA at around 12,000. If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high, that would mean a +2.56% advance for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.60% gain. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -2.21% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq enters a bear market. How long will this one last? Much still depends on what's happening in Ukraine. But other factors including the Fed interest rate hikes and possible solutions for soaring oil prices may have a positive or negative impact as well. For tomorrow, the expectation is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/4Summary: Good economic news isn't enough to overcome market fears about the crisis in Ukraine. The US dollar and safe havens soared higher today while oil and commodity markets also continue rising. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 4, 2022 Facts: -1.66%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 34%, Body: 54% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Distribution on higher volume, barely within yesterday's range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Longer lower wick, most candle below yesterday's candle Advance/Decline: 0.42, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.79%), DJI (-0.53%), RUT (-1.55%), VIX (+4.92%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.89%) and Utilities (XLU +2.21%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.75%) and Financials (XLF -1.87%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Good economic news isn't enough to overcome market fears about the crisis in Ukraine. The US dollar and safe havens soared higher today while oil and commodity markets also continue rising. The Nasdaq fell -1.66% on higher volume than the previous day, marking another session of distribution by institutions. The candle is almost entirely below the previous days candle. The longer lower wick formed from two intraday dips and a rally in the final minutes of the session. There is a short upper wick above the 54% red body and a 34% closing range. More than two stocks declined for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.55%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.79% and -0.53%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +4.92%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Energy (XLE +2.89%) topped the list followed by the four defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +2.21%) was second on the list. Technology (XLK -1.75%) and Financials (XLF -1.87%) were at the bottom. Jobs data was very positive with Nonfarm Payrolls rising 678,000 in February compared to the forecast of 400,000, driven mostly by private payrolls. The Unemployment Rate fell to 3.8% against the expectation of 3.9%. The US Dollar continued to strengthen, with the index (DXY) rising +0.80% today. Treasury yields showed a bleak outlook, with long-term yields dropping sharply while short-term yields dropped less significantly, the gap between long-term and short-term yields narrowing. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold rose sharply. Brent Oil topped $115 a gallon, reaching its highest price since 2013. Copper and Aluminum futures, as well as many commodities, continue to rise sharply. The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.828. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped further into Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved lower to 30.3 this week. All big six mega-caps endured another day of losses. Tesla (TSLA) held up the best, declining by only -0.12%. Nvidia (NVDA) had the most significant decline, dropping by -3.28%. Of all mega-caps, Exxon Mobil (XOM) had the best gain, climbing by +3.76% to top the mega-cap list. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the list with a -5.78% decline. Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List ended the day with gains. Chewy (CHWY) advanced by +2.91% and GrowGeneration (GRWG) gained by +0.13%. There were plenty of big losers in the list. At the bottom of the list was DoorDash (DASH), declining -11.62% today, perhaps on concerns over higher fuel costs. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news to kick off the week on Monday. All eyes will remain on the Ukraine war. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance All three trend lines point to a decline for Monday with an average of -0.30%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Let's hope and pray for some good news over the weekend on the war in Ukraine. Not for the market, but for the people who are in danger as their homes and neighborhoods are bombarded with missiles and heavy artillery. Take care of yourself and your family during these very scary times. The expectation for the Nasdaq for Monday is Lower. Stay healthy and stay safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/3Summary: Oil prices continued to raise inflation fears on Thursday, causing stocks to slide. Commodity prices are also rising as the war in Ukraine intensifies. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 3, 2022 Facts: -1.56%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 18%, Body: 82% Red Good: Higher high. Reduced volume on lower close Bad: Big red body, low closing range, lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with a small lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.57, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.53%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-1.29%), VIX (-0.85%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.76%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.26%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Oil prices continued to raise inflation fears on Thursday, causing stocks to slide. Commodity prices are also rising as the war in Ukraine intensifies. The Nasdaq fell by -1.56%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has an 82% red body with no upper wick. The 18% closing range comes after a small lower wick formed in the last thirty minutes of the open market. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost only -0.29%, helped by strength in large cap companies in safe-haven sectors. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.52%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.29%. The VIX Volatility Index remains elevated but declined by -0.85% today. Seven of eleven sectors ended the day in the positive, dominated by the safe-haven / defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +1.76%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%) were the top sectors. Technology (XLK -1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.26%) were that the bottom. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were lower than the previous week and less than forecast, coming in at 215,000 compared to the expected 226,000. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was lower than forecast, registering 56.5 against the forecast of 61.0. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose another +0.38%. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the US 2y Yield gained. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Brent Oil remains high at around $110 per barrel. Copper and Aluminum futures continue to rise sharply. The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.826. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved lower to 30.3. All big six mega-caps declined. Tesla (TSLA) which has led both rallies and pullbacks declined the most, falling by -4.61%. Walmart (WMT) was the top mega-cap for the day, advancing +2.30%. Shell (SHEL) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -5.99%. Only two of the Daily Update Growth List stocks gained. Beyond Meat (BYND) and Zynga (ZNGA) advanced +1.11% and +0.22%. Three stocks dropped more than 10%. Cloudflare (NET), MongoDB (MDB), and Snowflake (SNOW) dropped by -13.19%, -14.26%, and -15.37%, respectively. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Payrolls data and the Unemployment rate for February will be available before the market opens tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index touched above the 21d EMA this morning, but then receded back to around 13,500. The five-day trend line points to a +0.89% advance for Friday. The one-day trend line and trend line from the 2/10 high end with a -1.28% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Ukraine crisis is driving more fears of inflation, but Jerome Powell promises to keep with the plan of a quarter-point rate hike in March. Still, the market is driven by the more immediate fear of the war intensifying. The outside day is representative of the hope and the fear in the market now. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321