Get started

RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 2/2Summary: The rally in the Nasdaq slowed on Wednesday as investors took profits in some sectors while chasing a more select set of companies turning in great earnings this past two weeks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 2, 2022 Facts: +0.50%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 64%, Body: 32% Red Good: Higher high, higher low, decent closing range Bad: Red body, lower volume gain, low advance/decline Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long lower wick under a thin red body Advance/Decline: 0.52, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.94%), DJI (+0.63%), RUT (-1.03%), VIX (+0.59%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.00%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) at the top. Materials (XLB +0.31%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.60%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The rally in the Nasdaq slowed on Wednesday as investors took profits in some sectors while chasing a more select set of companies turning in great earnings this past two weeks. The Nasdaq gained +0.50% for the day. The index opened with a gap up but declined through the morning to create a long lower wick. The recovery in the afternoon left behind a 32% red body and a 64% closing range. Volume was lower than the previous day. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.94%, led higher by Alphabet's huge gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.63%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -by 1.03%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose by +0.59%. Communications (XLC +2.00%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) were the top two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors. Only one sector, Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.60%) declined. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for January showed a decline of 301,000 payrolls vs an expected increase of 207,000. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its fall, declining -by 0.29% today. Treasury Yields are relatively steady with small declines across the 30y, 10y, and 2y yield. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices increased. Crude Oil Futures continues to rise. Timber and Copper Futures are also on the rise while Aluminum Futures is falling. The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.751. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear range. Four of the big six gained today. Alphabet (GOOG) was the big winner with a +7.52%. The stock was up over 10% intraday, setting a new all-time high but couldn't hold on for a record close. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +1.52% to close above its 21d EMA. Meta (FB) rose +1.25% but is down over 20% after hours, disappointing investors with missed earnings expectations. Google was at the top of the mega-cap list, followed by Qualcomm (QCOM) which rose +6.25% in anticipation of earnings which turned out great. Despite the great earnings, the stock is down after hours. Alibaba (BABA) is at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The stock remains volatile with a -3.41% decline today. There were only four stocks with gains in the Daily Update Growth List. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the list, gaining +2.45% today. At the bottom of the list was PayPal (PYPL) which declined -24.59 after missing most business metrics and lowering its outlook in its earnings call yesterday. That also brought down Block (SQ) by -10.63%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly jobless claims will be available before the market opens tomorrow. We'll also have the Q4 Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data at the same time. After the market opens, we'll get Non-Manufacturing / Services Purchasing Managers Index data for January that shows if the sector is growing or shrinking in economic activity. Amazon (AMZN) will round out the big six earnings reports for this season. In addition, we'll get earnings for Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), Shell (SHEL), Honeywell (HON), Ford Motor (F), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Snap (SNAP), Unity Software (U), Pinterest (PINS), and Paylocity (PCTY). The list of reports for Thursday is long and these are just a few relevant to the Daily Update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed just above the 21d EMA today. The index hit resistance at 14,500 after opening, slid through the morning but regained ground to close higher. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +2.48% advance for Thursday. The one-day trend line and trend line from the 1/24 low point to a +0.21% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Great earnings reports have helped the Nasdaq rally. However, the disappointment on Facebook earnings could derail things tomorrow. Overall, the earnings season is still strong, but the size of Facebook will influence the entire market, especially with a severe reaction to the miss. Based on the chart the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways, but a move Lower would not be a huge surprise. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/1Summary: Stock indexes rose along with optimism as corporate America continues to provide earnings beats and positive outlooks for 2022. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 1, 2022 Facts: +0.75%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 96%, Body: 24% Green Good: Higher high and higher low, high closing range, advance/decline ratio Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long lower wick under a thin green body Advance/Decline: 2.76, Five advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.69%), DJI (+0.78%), RUT (+1.10%), VIX (-11.56%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.56%) and Materials (XLB +1.54%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.68%) and Utilities (XLU -1.33%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stock indexes rose along with optimism as corporate America continues to provide earnings beats and positive outlooks for 2022. The Nasdaq rose +0.75% for the day after dipping in the morning. Volume was lower than the previous day, but gaining stocks continued to outnumber declining stocks at a 5:2 ratio. The dip in the morning formed a long lower wick, but the index recovered to create a 24% green body and a 96% closing range. Small-caps outperformed today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) small-cap index rose +1.10%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.69%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed +0.78% higher. The VIX Volatility Index continues to recede, falling -11.52% today. Only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors declined today, all defensive sectors. Energy (XLE +3.56%) led the sector list, having another record close. The sector was lifted by great earnings from Exxon Mobile (XOM). Materials (XLB +1.54%) was the second-best sector. Real Estate (XLRE -0.68%) and Utilities (XLU -1.33%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January was lower than the previous month but higher than the forecast. JOLTs Job Openings improved in December to 10.925m against an expected 10.3m. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed more demand than forecasted with supplies dipping to -1.645m vs the expectation of a 1.833m barrel surplus. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined -by 0.39%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Treasury Yield dropped. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices decreased. Silver and Gold advanced, primarily on the weakening dollar. Crude Oil Futures are holding near recent highs. The put/call ratio declined to 0.738. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear range. Three of the big six mega-caps gained. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +1.73% ahead of earnings and closed above its 21d EMA. The stock was up 10% in after-hours thanks to an earnings beat and a positive outlook for 2022. Meta (FB) also closed above its 21d EMA, advancing +1.83% today. Microsoft (MSFT) closed just below its 21d EMA, declining -by 0.71%. United Parcel Service (UPS) was the top-performer in the mega-cap list, soaring +14.08% today on an earnings surprise, beating almost every business metric for the company and raising revenue guidance. Toyota Motor (TM ) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -by 1.02%. All but two stocks advanced in the Daily Update Growth List. Draft Kings (DKNG) topped the list, climbing +7.20% today. Etsy (ETSY) dropped -by 3.13%, ending up at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is an OPEC Meeting scheduled for the early morning. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data will be available before the market opens. After the market opens, the Weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be released. Facebook (FB) will be the top earnings report for tomorrow, but there are many more. Alibaba (BABA), AbbVie (ABBV), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Qualcomm (QCOM), T-Mobile (TMUS), Spotify (SPOT), and DR Horton (DHI) are some that stand out as notable for the Daily Market Update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq is approaching the 21d EMA but remained below the line today. Trend lines are within a relatively tight range. If the one-day trend line continues, we can expect a +0.59% advance for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.13% decline. The trend line from the 1/24 low ends with a -0.75% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This earnings season is showing that public companies continue to show earnings and revenue growth that beat expectations. More importantly, those companies are providing outlooks for 2022 that are higher than expected. The result is investors are seemingly putting aside fears over inflation and interest rate hikes by the Fed. We can still expect volatility as the Fed rolls out new monetary policy, but it appears there is still constructive growth that will happen in 2022. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/31Summary: The market took a big step forward to end what was a difficult January. Investors poured back into equities after comments from the US Treasury's top economist that they see inflation easing in 2022. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. In the past, I focused on the largest four mega-caps. From today, I will start tracking the largest six mega-caps moving forward. These six companies represent nearly 25% of the S&P 500 so have an outsized influence on index performance. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 31, 2022 Facts: +3.41%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 90% Green Good: Great advance/decline ratio, gain on higher volume, closing range of 99% Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 4.53, more than four advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.89%), DJI (+1.17%), RUT (+3.05%), VIX (-10.23%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.85%) and Technology (XLK +2.51%) at the top. Energy (XLE +0.44%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.38%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market took a big step forward to end what was a difficult January. Investors poured back into equities after comments from the US Treasury's top economist that they see inflation easing in 2022. The Nasdaq rose +3.41% for the day. Volume was higher than the previous day and higher than the 50-day average volume. The candle has a tiny lower wick under a 90% green body. The 99% closing range left behind no upper wick. There was great breadth, with 4.5 stocks advancing for every stock that declined. Small-caps also performed well for the day, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) advancing +3.05%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed +1.89% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +1.17%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -10.24%, but still remains elevated. All S&P 500 sectors advanced. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.85%) and Technology (XLK +2.51%) were the best-performing sectors. Energy (XLE +0.44%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.38%) were at the bottom of the list. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed a healthy manufacturing sector for January. The index rose to 65.2 from 64.3 the previous month. Analysts expected it to drop to 61.7. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -by 0.59% after rising through most of January. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury yields all rose. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices improved. Silver declined while Gold advanced. Crude Oil Futures remains very high. The put/call ratio declined to 0.818. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained at the Fear level. All of the big six meg-caps advanced for the day. Tesla (TSLA) outperformed the group, advancing +10.68% as it rebounded off its 200d MA. Apple (AAPL) continued to rise above its 21d EMA and 50d MA, advancing +2.61%. Microsoft (MSFT) moved back above its 21d EMA with a +0.88% gain today. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta (FB) are all still trading below their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Tesla topped the full mega-cap list, followed by Alibaba (BABA) which gained +9.16%. Only five mega-caps declined with Pfizer (PFE) losing -3.02% to end up at the bottom of the list. The entire daily update growth list did very well today. The top gainers included Fiverr (FVRR) and NIO (NIO), both advancing over 17%. Even the bottom of the list had great advances. RH was the worst performer on the list but gained +2.78% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We will get more manufacturing data after the market opens tomorrow. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is due at 10 am. At the same time, the JOLTs Job Openings report for December will be available. The jobs report could be skewed by the Omicron outbreak. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report is due in the afternoon. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) will be the top earnings reports to watch for tomorrow. Also on the long list of reports is PayPal (PYPL), United Parcel Service (UPS), AMD (AMD), Starbucks (SBUX) Chubb (CB), General Motors (GM), and Electronic Arts (EA). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq made a big move back toward the 21d EMA. If the one-day trend line continues, the index could advance +1.29% on Tuesday and close back above the 21d EMA. If the index returns to the five-day trend line and trend line from the 1/24 low, that would mean a -2.00% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's likely we'll continue to get mixed signals about inflation. There is a supply-side and a demand-side to the story. And both have different data points that economists will continue to watch. They will then weigh those signals against predictions on the Fed's monetary policy. Demand was high in 2021 as consumers unleashed record savings and available credit into the economy, but is now starting to ease. That can be seen in the drop-off of retail sales in December. Supply has been hampered by issues that range from having enough workers to produce goods to having enough containers to ship goods across the world. As China goes into their New Year holiday, that should ease congestion for a time being and give a chance for some catch-up. So we actually could be on the cusp of easing inflation as the US Treasury predicts. If so, we can expect the Fed to restrain itself from raising interest rates too aggressively and that will ease fears among analysts and investors. Based on the chart, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher. Possibly Sideways because of the huge move we saw today. Possibly Higher because of the momentum. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Keep your cool - I am keeping distance ATMHi folks! The market seems untradeable right now imo - we are in no mans land in terms of technicals (trends, horisontal support/resistance, MACD/RSI etc.) I still believe we will go way further down in the long term, and we have a lot of both immediate and longer term risks in the market. However, a crash/big correction almost always happen over a very long time with a lot of counter-trend rallies - thus, I will only make very short term long-trades when the market is in panic mode and short-trades (through the VIX) if we see extended rallies. My take is thus that the best action is to stay out right now if you are either a long term investor or a medium-term trader - The fewer trades you make and the mote patience your have in a volatile market, the better. DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well :)
AMEX:SPY
by TheDots
2
Daily Market Update for 1/28Summary: We ended a volatile week with one more whipsaw day. Thankfully, this one whipped to the upside. It seems the strong earnings week finally lifted sentiment in the market, overcoming fears of inflation and geopolitical events. Will it stick? Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 28, 2022 Facts: +3.13%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 62% Green Good: Closing range, higher high, great breadth (a/d) Bad: Lower low, volume lower on gain Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick underneath thick green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.79, more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+2.43%), DJI (+1.65%), RUT (+1.93%), VIX (-9.28%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +4.37%) and Real Estate (XLRE +3.47%) at the top. Materials (XLB +0.58%) and Energy (XLE -0.42%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview We ended a volatile week with one more whipsaw day. Thankfully, this one whipped to the upside. It seems the strong earnings week finally lifted sentiment in the market, overcoming fears of inflation and geopolitical events. Will it stick? The Nasdaq gained +3.13% by the end of the day. A dip in the morning created a long lower wick, but then the bulls came back in to end the day with gains. The 62% green body sits above the long lower wick. The 100% closing range leaves behind no upper wick. Volume was lower than the previous day. There were more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the second-best index. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were helped by Apple (AAPL) which crushed earnings estimates on Thursday evening. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +1.65%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed +1.93%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped back by -9.28% but remains elevated. Ten out of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Technology (XLK +4.37%) and Real Estate (XLRE +3.47%) were the top sectors. Materials (XLB +0.58%) and Energy (XLE -0.42%) were the bottom two sectors. Core PCE Price Index data was just slightly higher than forecast, coming in at 4.9% year-over-year. 4.8% was expected. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations were both lower than the forecast. The US Dollar index (DXY) was steady, rising just +0.01% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold continued to tumble, losing -1.34% and -0.34% today. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.953. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is at 53.39, down from 56.73 last week. All four largest mega-caps had significant gains. Apple (AAPL) soared +6.98% to close back above its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +2.81% to close just below its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +3.37% and closed just below its 200d MA. Amazon (AMZN) rose +3.11% but had more work to get back to moving averages. Visa (V) and Mastercard (M) were the top mega-caps for the day. Visa gained +1.60% while Mastercard advanced +9.12%. The stocks were lifted by Visa's earnings beat and optimistic outlook on travel spending. There was only one mega-cap in the list to decline. It was Chevron (CVX) which declined -by 3.52%, giving back some of the year-to-date gains. It had risen 16% since the new year. In a surprise reversal from overnight sentiment, Robinhood (HOOD) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +9.65% advance. Robinhood sank in after-hours yesterday, disappointing investors with almost all of its business metrics. Only a handful of stocks on the list declined. Ehang Holdings (EH) was the biggest loser, dropping -6.51%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news for Monday. Several Asian markets will be closed on Monday for the New Year holidays. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index data will be available Monday after the market opens. Next week will be another big week for earnings, including Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (FB), and Amazon (AMZN). However, Monday doesn't have any earnings reports relevant to this update. Check your own portfolio for earnings events. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq was up and down today but ended the day with an afternoon rally. There seems to be a support/resistance area around 13,800 and the index closed just below that area. If the one-day trend continues, expect a +1.72% advance on Monday. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.21% decline. If the index is to return to the trend line from the 1/12 high, it would mean a -5.28% drop. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq ended a wild week with a +0.01% gain. Not much, but still ends a four-week losing streak. It remains to be seen if this is just a pause before further declines or if the market is getting more support. Is the Fed going to simply take the foot off the gas that has been accelerating growth in the economy, or will it put on the brakes? That's the question large institutions need to answer for themselves. If it is the former, we'll see more support coming into the market with a few higher volume green days. Next, we will need to see investors that have taken profits and moved to the sidelines reengage. That will show up win breath thrust indicators. The most popular one, the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator is on day one of ten today. The indicator rarely triggers, but if it did, it would provide new life to the bull market. The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher. If we get Lower, we can expect more volatility ahead. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/27Summary: It was another tough day for the stock market. Indexes opened higher, but then faded throughout the day to close lower. The rally attempt from Monday's low is still intact but the performance since then isn't looking good. Will indexes fail Monday's low and go further down, or will they find support and move higher? Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 27, 2022 Facts: -1.40%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 7%, Body: 81% Red Good: Volume lower on the decline Bad: Closing range, low advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, with small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.27, nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (-0.02%), RUT (-2.29%), VIX (-4.60%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.09%) and Utilities (XLU +0.89%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.80%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.42%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was another tough day for the stock market. Indexes opened higher, but then faded throughout the day to close lower. The rally attempt from Monday's low is still intact but the performance since then isn't looking good. Will indexes fail Monday's low and go further down, or will they find support and move higher? The Nasdaq dropped -1.4% for the day. Volume was less than the previous day. The index opened the day in the positive but then sold off throughout the session, creating a thick red body that covers 81% of the candle. The tiny lower wick left behind a 7% closing range. There were nearly four stocks that declined for every stock that advanced. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) held up the best, declining only -0.02% thanks for Energy and Cyclical stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.54%. Small-caps took another hit on the chin with a drop of -2.29% in the Russell 2000 (RUT). Despite the declines, the VIX Volatility Index was lower by -4.60%. Six of the eleven sectors ended the day with gains. The top sector was Energy (XLE +1.09%), followed by the defensive sectors of Utilities (XLU +0.89%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.67%). The bottom two sectors were Real Estate (XLRE -1.80%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.42%) at the bottom. GDP data showed the economy expanded by 6.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q43 compared to the forecast of 5.5%. Core Durable Goods Orders (which excludes transportation items) for December met expectations, but total Durable Goods Orders fell by -0.9%. That was more than the -0.5% expected decline. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims were at the forecast with 260,000 claims this week. The US dollar is at its strongest since 2020, with the index (DXY) gaining +0.75% today. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y yield rose. The gap between long term and short term treasury yields continues to tighten. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continue to plummet while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose slightly. Silver and Gold are both dropping sharply as the dollar rises. Crude Oil Futures took off again hitting new highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.903. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is at 53.39, down from 56.73 last week. Of the four largest mega-caps, Amazon (AMZN)and Microsoft (MSFT) held onto intraday gains, ending with +0.55% and +1.05% advances. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.29% but is expected to reverse those losses after a surprisingly good earnings report and the declaration that supply chain issues are easing. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.18%. Novo Nordisk (NVO) is at the top of the mega-cap list, gaining +2.51%. That's followed by Chevron (CVX) which gained +2.02% ahead of its Friday earnings report. Tesla (TSLA) dropped -11.55%, weighing down the entire EV sector and placing the mega-cap at the bottom of the list. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) were also near the bottom of the list as semiconductors continue to fall. ServiceNow (NOW) pleased investors with its earnings report, rising to the top of the Daily Update Growth List with a +9.14% gain today. Netflix (NFLX) took back some of its losses after getting a shot of optimism from Bill Ackman declaring he was buying more. Tesla was also the worst growth stock of the day, followed by three Chinese EV stocks. RobinHood (HOOD) dropped -6.45% and then added another -12.58% after hours with terrible misses across its business. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Inflation will be back in focus tomorrow with the PCE Price Index data for December being available in the morning. After the market opens, we'll see the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations data for January. The earnings season continues to be mostly positive. Tomorrow will bring reports from Chevron (CVX) and Caterpillar (CAT) among a smaller list than Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq had a lower high and lower low today, but held above Monday's low, keeping alive the potential for a market rally. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +0.75% gain for Friday. The trend line from the 1/12 high ends with a -2.01% decline. Continuing the one-day trend would mean a -3.65% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Among all the worrying about inflation and the Fed tightening monetary policy, it's easy to miss out on the fact that it's all happening because of an expanding economy driven by an exceptional performance from US companies. The evidence is in the earnings reports from Microsoft and Apple. Even Tesla had great results (and guidance) despite sharing that there would be no new models for 2022. Apple shared some really great news today. Not only did it smash holiday records, but said that supply chain issues were easing. That's in contrast to supply chain concerns that Tesla shared in its earnings report yesterday. So investors will continue to be pulled between worries about the Fed tightening monetary policy and the exceptional performance of the US economy. Of course, the Fed tightening has the purpose of slowing down the economy, but so far it appears that corporate America remains confident. If supply chain issues are easing, that's even a better outlook. That means the Fed can tighten without impacting employment or causing a recession (marked by two quarters of decline in GDP). Based on the chart, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower. But cross our fingers for a positive day helped by Apple's rosy outlook. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Daily Market Update for 1/26Summary: Jerome Powell says Inflation is bad and possibly getting worse. While the initial release from the Fed meeting met expectations, which predicted an interest rate hike in March, markets turned fearful again when comments from Powell showed much more concern than anticipated. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 26, 2022 Facts: +0.02%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 25%, Body: 54% Red Good: Higher high and held onto a gain for the day Bad: Lost intraday momentum to make a lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, equal size upper and lower wicks surround a red body Advance/Decline: 0.5, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.15%), DJI (-0.38%), RUT (-1.38%), VIX (+2.57%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +0.59%) and Financials (XLF +0.26%) at the top. Communications (XLC -1.46%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Jerome Powell says Inflation is bad and possibly getting worse. While the initial release from the Fed meeting met expectations, which predicted an interest rate hike in March, markets turned fearful again when comments from Powell showed much more concern than anticipated. The Nasdaq barely held onto the daily gain, advancing just +0.02% after being up +3.42% intraday. Volume was higher thanks to the volatility. The 54% red body sits in between equal size upper and lower wicks. The upper wick formed from the intraday gains while the lower wick formed during the fear-induced sell-off. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -0.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -1.38%. The VIX Volatility Index was on the decline but reversed to its highest close since one year ago, when the Fed also caused panic among investors. Technology (XLK +0.59%) and Financials (XLF +0.26%) were the only two sectors to hold onto gains for the day. Communications (XLC -1.46%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) ended at the bottom of the list. After the Jerome Powell speech all sectors sold off, but the defensive sectors of Utilities (XLU -0.82%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.76%) had the smallest declines. The day started off with mixed economic news. The Goods Trade Balance (Dec) show the US was importing far more than it was exporting. Analysts expected a -96.10B imbalance but the actual was -100.96B. New Home Sales for December outpaced expectations. There were 811,000 sales vs the expected 760,000. Crude Oil Inventories showed less demand than forecasted. The biggest economic news for the day was from the Fed. They confirmed a timeline for March to start increasing interest rates and begin reducing the balance sheet. That initial information was Ok with the market, causing a short rally. The rally was ended by Jerome Powell's speech which raised concern about a worsening situation with inflation. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.54% for the day. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose while the gap between long term and short term treasuries narrowed. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply. Gold and Silver both dropped, relative to the dollars increase. The put/call ratio rose to 0.758. The CNN Fear & Greed index continued to move further into the Fear range. Microsoft (MSFT) outperformed the other largest mega-caps. After beating earnings expectations and providing a positive surprise for 2022 guidance, the company was up +6.76% intraday. Microsoft held onto a +2.85% gain. Alphabet (GOOGL) also closed the day in the positive, gaining +1.81%. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.06% and Amazon (AMZN) was down -0.80%. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) was the top mega-cap today, winning some favorable analyst praise and a +4.20% advance. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, losing -4.84%. The Daily Update Growth List lost a lot of gainers after the Fed meeting, but some held on to finish in the green. The top performer was Draft Kings (DKNG) which gained +5.23% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to equal weight. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) declined -7.36% to end up at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will start with the Durable Goods Orders data for December. We'll also get a reading on GDP for Q4 of 2021. The weekly jobless claims data will be available before the market opens and Pending Home Sales for December will print after the market opens. Apple (AAPL) is the big earnings report for tomorrow. Will the positive earnings week continue? In addition to Apple, Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), McDonald's (MCD), SAP (SAP), Atlassian (TEAM), Western Digital (WD), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are among many companies reporting earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied today but then gave up the gains to close just above yesterday's close. The one-day trend line points to a -1.10% decline for tomorrow. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 1/12 high point to a -2.47% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Shock is never a good thing for investors and Jerome Powell's comments today set off nerves driving selling in the late afternoon. Now that the market is closed, analysts can look closer at his comments and reassess what they think the Fed's timeline is for interest rate hikes and reducing the balance sheet. We'll see what the institutional opinion is in tomorrow's market moves. After an inside day, following by a volatile outside day, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/25Summary: Markets were lower on Tuesday as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. The energy sector tracked oil prices hire on fears that the Ukraine standoff would put pressure on supplies. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 25, 2022 Facts: -2.28%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 34%, Body: 19% Red Good: Higher low, less volume on decline Bad: Lower high, failed rally in afternoon Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, spinning top indicating indecision Advance/Decline: 0.75, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-1.22%), DJI (-0.19%), RUT (-1.45%), VIX (+4.21%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.88%) and Financials (XLF +0.42%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.05%) and Technology (XLK -2.31%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets were lower on Tuesday as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. The energy sector tracked oil prices hire on fears that the Ukraine standoff would put pressure on supplies. The Nasdaq fell -2.28% for the day. Despite the decline, volume was lower than the previous day and the spinning top candle with a lower high and higher low indicate indecision in the market. The 19% red body sits in the middle of the candle above a 34% closing range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was down only -0.19% thanks to outperformance in large Energy and Financial stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.22%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.45%. The VIX Volatility Index climbed +4.21%. Energy (XLE +3.88%) and Financials (XLF +0.42%) were at the top of the sector list. Communications (XLC -2.05%) and Technology (XLK -2.31%) were at the bottom. Consumer Confidence for January beat the forecast, coming in at 113.8 against an expected 111.8. The US Dollar index (DXY) was higher by +0.10%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields were slightly down while the 2y yield rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were both lower. Gold moved higher as investors bought it for a safe haven. Crude Oil Futures moved higher on potential supply issues from a possible Ukraine standoff. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.682. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into the Fear range. The four largest mega-caps were down for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) closed below its 200d moving average for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. Apple (AAPL) had an intraday rally for a gain, but then fell back to close with a -1.14% decline. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) produced inside days and declines of -3.15% and -2.96%. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the top mega-caps for today. Chevron advanced +4.25% while Exxon Mobil climbed +2.94%. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -5.65%. Nvidia (NVDA) was also near the bottom, dropping -5.29% today. Only three of the Daily Update Growth List stocks gained. Penn National Gaming topped the list with a +1.86% climb. After two days of gains, Peloton (PTON) found itself at the bottom of the list again, declining -10.70%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The biggest news for tomorrow will be results of the Fed meeting and their Interest Rate decision. That news will come around 2pm. In the morning, we'll get the Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories for December. After the market opens, we'll have New Homes Sales data for December. Later in the morning, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be available. Tesla (TSLA), Abbot Labs (ABT), Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), ServiceNow (NOW), ADP (ADP), and Progressive (PGR) are among the earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index opened lower, then nearly rallied to a gain before finally fading back to a loss. The one-day trend line points to a +2.02% advance for Wednesday. The five-day trend line ends with a -2.45% decline. The trend line from the 1/12 high results in a -3.96% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's not much investors could do on Tuesday but wait for Wednesday. That resulted in lower volume and a soft rally attempt in the afternoon. The spinning top candle represents that indecisive sentiment. Earnings reports will significantly impact sentiment this week. Microsoft beat estimates and provide very positive guidance for 2022. That could help bring some support into the market, including the Nasdaq. Based on the candle and downtrend, the expectation for tomorrow remains Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/24Summary: Markets rebounded after a massive dip in the morning brought on by worries over the Fed interest rate decisions mid-week and what's happening between Russia and NATO over Ukraine. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 24, 2022 Facts: +0.63%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 48% Green Good: High closing range, gain on higher volume, high advance/decline ratio Bad: Big dip in the morning, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick underneath a 48% green body, tiny upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.29, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.28%), DJI (+0.29%), RUT (+2.29%), VIX (+3.64%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.20%) and Communications (XLC +0.73%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.33%) and Utilities (XLU -0.96%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets rebounded after a massive dip in the morning brought on by worries over the Fed interest rate decisions mid-week and what's happening between Russia and NATO over Ukraine. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.63% gain. That came after dip of -4.90% in the morning. The candle has a 48% green body above a long lower wick from the morning dip. The recovery and rally into close led to a 97% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. At its lowest point, the Nasdaq was down -19.23% from its all-time high. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed for the day. The small-cap index rose +2.29%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed +0.28% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.29%. All three indexes dipped severely in the morning. The VIX Volatility Index soared 35% intraday, but ended the day just +3.64% higher. The intraday top was the highest reading since November 2020. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.20%) and Communications (XLC +0.73%) were the top sectors for the day. Health (XLV -0.33%) and Utilities (XLU -0.96%) were at the bottom. From the upside reversal around 12:00p, all sectors gained with Technology (XLY +0.52%) leading the list. The Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index came in lower than expected. However both prints were above 50 which signals expansion in their respective sectors. The US Dollar strengthened, with the index (DXY) gaining +0.24% The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y yield declined. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver retreated while Gold advanced. Crude Oil, Timber, Copper and Aluminum all retreated. The put/call ratio remained at a relatively bearish level, declining to 0.950 today. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear area. All four largest mega-caps recovered from morning dips. Only Apple (AAPL) could not end the day with a gain, declining -0.49%. Microsoft dipped well below its 200d MA, but recovered to close above the line and gain +0.11%. Amazon (AMZN) rose +1.33%. Alphabet (GOOGL) improved by +0.35%. Home Depot (HD) gained +4.21% today to top the mega-cap list. Adobe (ADBE) was the next best with a +3.95% advance. At the bottom of the list was Alibaba (BABA) and Pfizer (PFE) which lost -2.32% and -2.37%. The Daily Update Growth List had some big winners. Chewy (CHWY) topped the list with a +13.72% gain. Peloton (PTON) continued its rebound, advancing +9.79% today. Chinese stocks were at the bottom of the list, with Nio (NIO) having the most significant decline, losing -9.07%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead CB Consumer Confidence for January will be available after the market opens tomorrow. Microsoft (MSFT), Johnson&Johnson (JNJ), Verizon (VZ), Texas Instruments (TXN), Raytheon (RTX), American Express (AXP), General Electric (GE), Lockheed Martin (LMT), 3M (MMM), and Logitech (LOGI) are among the earnings reports tomorrow. All eyes will be on Microsoft to set a tone for the mega-cap reports coming later this week and next. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dipped to almost 13,000 before catching some support and recovering to close higher. Still, the trend is downward with a lower low and lower high. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, expect a +1.11% advance. The trend line from the 1/12 high and the five-day trend line both represent the steep declines over the two time periods. After today's rally, if the index returns to those lines it would mean a decline of -3.29% to -4.55%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We are not out of the woods yet, but today was a positive day. The candle itself has a long lower wick that can indicate a reversal when in a downtrend. The result is a move higher on higher than average volume (although a large portion of that volume came in the dip). The closing range of 97% shows the rally rode right into close. We also have more advancing stocks than declining stocks. To continue the momentum, look for another positive day tomorrow on increased volume. We also want to see the advance/decline line remain above 1.0 and a good closing range. The last thing we need to see and we didn't get today, is a higher high and a higher low. The expectation is for Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/21Summary: That’s four days in a row with a long upper wick from a failed morning rally and a dismal closing range under 10%. Panic sets in for investors as the Fed's rate hike decision approaches to fight higher inflation while risking the possibility of a recession. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 21, 2022 Facts: -2.72%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 68% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Fourth failed rally attempt this week, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick with large red body. No lower wick. Advance/Decline: 0.24, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.89%), DJI (-1.30%), RUT (-1.78%), VIX (+12.74%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.08%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.06%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.93%) and Communications (XLC -3.38%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview That’s four days in a row with a long upper wick from a failed morning rally and a dismal closing range under 10%. Panic sets in for investors as the Fed's rate hike decision approaches to fight higher inflation while risking the possibility of a recession. The Nasdaq declined -2.72% to end its worst week since the pandemic began and its fourth weekly decline in a row. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle looks just like the other four this week, with a long upper wick from a failed rally turning to a large red body and no lower wick. The closing range was just 1% under a 68% red body. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.89% to close below its 200d moving average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -1.30%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gave up -1.78%. The VIX Volatility Index continued to soar with a +12.74% rise on Friday. Only Consumer Staples (XLP +0.08%) advanced for the day. The other defensive sectors of Real Estate (XLRE -0.06%) and Utilities (XLU -0.19%) were the next two in the sector list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.93%) and Communications (XLC -3.38%) were at the bottom. Retail Sales in the UK and Canada for December echoed the US result, missing targets and declining month-over-month. The US Dollar index (DXY) was fairly steady for the week, declining -0.14% on Friday. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Bonds all declined as investors moved to the safety of bonds vs the volatility in equities. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked Treasuries higher (Yields lower, Prices higher). Silver and Gold both moved lower for the day. Crude Oil Futures, Timber, Copper and Aluminum Futures all sank. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 1.15, the most bearish reading since March 2020. The CNN Fear & Greed index floated back into the fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 56.73 from 74.78 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) continues to fall more than the others, declining -5.95% on Friday. Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped -2.22%. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) faired a bit better, declining -1.28% and -1.85%. Only four mega-caps gained for the day. Abbot Laboratories (ABT) was the top gainer, gaining 0.90%. The biggest loser in the list was Walt Disney (DIS) which lost -6.94%, possibly weighted down by Netflix's disappointing subscriber growth. Alibaba (BABA) was also at the bottom of the list after topping it several days this week. It gave back the intraweek gains, declining -5.95% on Friday. In the Daily Update Growth List, only two stocks advanced. Peloton (PTON) gained +11.73%, bouncing back from a -24% decline the previous day. Beyond Meat (BYND) squeezed out a +0.29% advance. At the bottom of the list was Netflix, ending the day with a -21.79% decline. The company reported slower than expected subscriber growth. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The big news next week will be the Fed's rate increase decision on Wednesday. Also impacting the market will be earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft and Tesla, the largest of the big hitters reporting next week. Monday will bring the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Index data for January, a forward-looking indicator on economic performance. Earnings reports on Monday include IBM (IBM) and Haliburton (HAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index is now -15% below its all-time high. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 1/12 high both point to a +0.49% advance for the index if it returns to the longer trends. The one-day trend line leads to a -1.39% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A painful week ends with investors at their most bearish level since the March 2020 crash. Some people call for further pain as a bubble of speculative investments over the past two years bursts. Others are saying this looks like the correction we needed and this could be the bottom. What do the charts and indicators tell us? The Nasdaq chart is dismal. It has no indication of stopping the decline. Every rally attempt this week failed and three of the four days showed distribution from institutional investors, marked by high volume declines. The percentage of stocks above their 200d and 50d moving averages are both at their lowest since the pandemic began. However, they have seen lower levels during the start of the pandemic and in late 2018 and early 2016. So these indicators could go lower. Treasury Bond yields rose sharply the previous week on speculation that the Fed would initiate interest rate hikes with a 50 basis points instead of the previously expected 25 basis points. That uncertainty and volatility in bonds just further tanked equities. One could look at the Fed's decision on Wednesday as a point of stabilization, especially if the Fed confirms the 25 basis point expectation. Investor sentiment often hits extremes around reversals. The put/call ratio rose to its highest (most bearish) point since March 2020, and the first time since 2020 that there were more puts than calls in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is not in Extreme Fear, however four out of seven of its subcomponents are there. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is below 60, where it typically bottoms and moves higher as money managers buy the dip. History tells us that equities typically decline leading up to rate hikes and then rise after rate hikes. However, we are in unprecedented times after historic low interest rates and massive QE causing the highest level of inflation since the 1980s. That potentially requires a very hawkish fed to bring it under control. So is there more uncertainty ahead? The bottom line is we're still not out of the woods. Rather than trying to guess, or listen to click-bait media, wait for the market to confirm the bottom. A few days of higher volume advances with broad support across the market will tell us that institutions are back in the game. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
The Week Ahead: XBI, ARKF, ARKG, BITO, ARKK, KWEB, IWM/RUTEarnings: TSLA (63/69). Announces on Wednesday after market close, so if you're looking to play the volatility contraction, look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's session or, if implied volatility afterglow persists, early Thursday after it has made its move. If NFLX earnings is any indication of whether TSLA will "behave," you may want to consider waiting until after the announcement to avoid a repeat of "the Netflix experience." As it is, the January 28th options are pricing in something bigly: +/- $82 or so, so 862 on the put side, 1026. Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Rank >70%/30-Day >35%, Implied Volatility Rank Ordered: Cathie Woods' funds continue to have a really bad hair day/week/month ... . XBI (100/48) ARKF (97/59) ARKG (87/66) BITO (82/85) ARKK (82/62) KWEB (74/58) EWZ (51/40) Pictured here is a bullish assumption BITO March 18th 17 short put, paying .60 at the mid price on buying power of 16.40. The broker is still requiring it to be cash-secured, so the ROC %-age is not all that sexy: 3.7% at max (25.0% annualized) as a function of buying power effect. Because of that, I would consider slapping on a cheap put to bring in the buying power effect, but the best you can currently do is to buy the 13, making it into a four-wide paying .38, and that amount isn't particularly compelling, particularly if you're going to be taking profit at 50% max. The ROC %-age is way better (9.5% at max), but I'd rather look at a setup where the long leg costs something like .05-.10, so I may stick a pin in that trade; lower strikes may populate at some point. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds, Implied Volatility Rank Ordered: QQQ (77/33) IWM (77/35) SPY (73/28) DIA (72/26) EFA (65/23) In the retirement account, I'll basically continue to ladder out short put as long as IVR/IV remains elevated. This is the exact environment in which I like to make additions on the put side: weakness plus increased implied volatility. Naturally, one begets the other. I'll also be keeping an eye on net portfolio delta to see if additional short delta hedge is required to keep me from getting overly directional which can make things more uncomfortable in a protracted down turn. I point this out because what people primarily see in my feed is "short put, short put, short put" and not the short delta hedges put on that are just kind of running in the background. There is individual trade delta, but also portfolio-wide delta.
AMEX:BITO
by NaughtyPines
IWM [Russel 2000] Inverse Head & Shoulders & BreakoutThe IWM as seen from the chart has been forming a solid and strong Inverse Head & Shoulders. An Inverse Head & Shoulders is a strong Bullish Chart Technicals Pattern, that can be seen here. 2 Shoulders, and 1 head in the middle, making the low. I am sharing this idea, as it is a pattern which has been printed on the Russel-2000 this past week, and can't go unnoticed! The Russel-2000 Index has also been in a YEAR-long consolidation, and is ready to make a move one way or another. On the weekly time frame of the Russel, the TTM_SQUEEZE Indicator a momentum indicator that can also predict big moves has been flashing red (signaling squeeze) and that a big move is coming one way or another. AFTER This recent breakout attempt in November from IWM, and a retest of the bottom consolidation levels, the russel seems ready to bounce up with this inverse head and shoulders, or make a break down. I think this is something to definitely keep on your radar folks! Good Luck Trading! I am personally looking at playing this with either : IWM febuary monthlys OR $URTY a 3x leveraged russel ETF
AMEX:IWMLong
by ZachSap
Daily Market Update for 1/20Summary: A morning rally attempt failed, turning into more declines for the major indexes. Chinese stocks outperformed after China cut interest rates. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 20, 2022 Facts: -1.30%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 62% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Another failed rally, closing range of 3%, volume higher on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick over a thick red body Advance/Decline: 0.36, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.10%), DJI (-0.89%), RUT (-1.88%), VIX (+7.30%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.13%) and Financials (XLF -0.64%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.82%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A morning rally attempt failed, turning into more declines for the major indexes. Chinese stocks outperformed after China cut interest rates. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.30% loss. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking another distribution day. The failed morning rally created a long upper wick that sits over a 62% red body. There is a tiny lower wick, leaving the candle with a 3% closing range. Nearly three stocks declined for every stock that advanced. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continued to sell-off more than the other indexes, declining -1.88% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.89%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +7.30%. Only the Utilities (XLU +0.13%) sector ended the day with a gain. Financials (-0.64%) was the second best sector for the day, helped by some positive earnings reports from banks in the morning. Materials (XLB -1.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.82%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Initial Jobless Claims were higher than forecast, coming in at 286,000 compared to the forecast of 220,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January printed 23.2 compared to the expectation of 20.0. That was welcome news after the NY Manufacturing Index showed worsening conditions with a negative print. Existing Home Sales for December was under the forecast by 4%. Crude Oil Inventories was higher than expected, marking some fall back in demand. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.16%. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continued to slide while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices seemed to bottom. Silver continued to rise sharply while Gold declined. Aluminum Futures are reaching back toward record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.816. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to Neutral, from the Greed area yesterday. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 56.73 from 74.78 the previous week. All four mega-caps declined today. Amazon (AMZN) continued to tumble, with a -2.96% decline. The stock is nearly 20% off its all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed just above its 200d moving average, losing -1.34% today. Apple (AAPL) made an attempt to get back above its 50d moving average, but ended the day with a -1.03% loss. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.57%. Top performing stocks for the day in both the mega-cap and growth list were Chinese companies. Alibaba (BABA) sat at the top of the mega-cap list with a +2.58% advance. At the bottom of the list was Nvidia (NVDA), declining -3.66% today as the entire semiconductor segment continues to lose ground. The top five stocks in the Daily Update Growth List were all Chinese, with Ehang Holdings (EH)leading the charge and gaining +11.40%. At the bottom of the growth list was Peloton (PTON). The company dropped -23.93% after news hit that they would be halting production of bikes and treadmills. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data for the UK and Canada will come overnight. Otherwise, there is not much economic news in the calendar for Friday. Schlumberger (SLB) and Huntington Bacnshares (HBAN) report earnings in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to tumble as it doesn’t seem to be catching any support areas. The index is -12.70% below its all-time high. If the index can return to the trend line from the 12/28 high, it would require a +1.37% advance on Friday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.35% gain. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -1.86% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Pain, pain, pain. It's tough to watch the failed rally attempts turn into significant losses day after day this week. The strengthening dollar today and rising Treasury prices both point to money coming back into the US market. If that can continue, we should see some support in US equity markets as investors look for greater returns. Based on the chart, the index is not giving us any indication of a reversal, so the expectation for tomorrow remains Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321