Get started

RUSSELL 2000

Confirmed Rectangle TopToday We can say a Rectangular Top pattern has been confirmed and small-cap will experience another 10-15% decline! This is the lowest level since Jan 29th, 2021. This could happen very fast in the next 2-6 weeks! TZA (Small-cap 3x inverse ETF) volume doubled in volume in the past 3 months, and could go up to 37-42 levels! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:RUTShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
Daily Market Update for 1/18Summary: Equity markets fell for another day as Treasury bond yields hit their highest level since the pandemic began. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 18, 2022 Facts: -2.60%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 9%, Body: 68% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Move below 200d moving average on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body with longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.23, more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.84%), DJI (-1.51%), RUT (-3.06%), VIX (+18.76%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.40%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.68%) at the top. Financials (XLF -2.23%) and Technology (XLK -2.40%) at the bottom. Expectation: -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Equity markets fell for another day as Treasury bond yields hit their highest level since the pandemic began. The Nasdaq (IXIC) dropped -2.60% today. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking a significant distribution day for the index. The closing range of 9% comes below a red body that covers 68% of the candle. The longer upper wick was formed in the morning as the index attempted to move back above the 200d moving average but hit resistance. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps had the most significant decline. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -3.06%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.84% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.51%. The VIX Volatility Index shot up +18.76%. Of the S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +0.40%) gained for the day. Financials (XLF -2.23%) and Technology (XLK -2.40%) were at the bottom of the list. Financials was pulled down by disappointing earnings reports from Goldman Sachs. The Technology sector tends to be most sensitive to rising Treasury yields. To further dampen market sentiment, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in less than zero at -0.70 compared to the forecast of 25.70. The negative number indicates worsening conditions. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.50% today. The dollar strengthened that last three days. The US 10y and 2y Treasury Yields rose sharply, reaching their highest levels since the beginning of 2020. The US 30y Treasury Yield also rose. The gap between long and short term yields continues to tighten. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also dropped sharply, tracking with Treasury prices (Yields rise, prices drop). Crude Oil Futures are nearing a new high. Silver rose despite the strengthening dollar. Gold declined. Timber (WOOD) prices fell sharply after hitting its highest point since May. The put/call ratio declined to 0.799. The CNN Fear & Greed index is hovering around Neutral. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) is the only of the four remaining above its 50d moving average line, declining -1.89% today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -2.43% and -2.50% as they both approach the 200d moving average. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the best-performing mega-cap for the day, climbing +1.68%. The only other mega-cap to gain more than 1% was Eli Lilly (LLY) closing the day with a +1.21% gain. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Qualcomm (QCOM) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list with -4.86% and -5.21% declines. Chinese fintech companies topped the Daily Update Growth List. FUTU Holding (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) gained +3.85% and +2.97%. The largest losses in the list came from Cloudflare (NET), declining -6.64%, and Lemonade (LMND), falling -6.67%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Build Permits and Housing Starts data for December will be available in the morning before the market opens. We'll also get inflation data for the UK and Canada overnight. UnitedHealth (UNH), Procter & Gamble (PG), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), and United Airlines (UAL) are among the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index closed above the 14,500 resistance/support area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 12/28 high, that would mean a +0.27% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -0.22% decline. If the one-day trend continues, expect a -1.10% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I mentioned on Friday that we'll continue to feel pain until the Bond market stabilizes. With yields spiking today, that meant more price declines for the major indexes and nearly all sectors. Maybe we'll see a bounce in the right direction tomorrow, but much of that depends on Treasury yields. Based on the chart, the expectation is for Lower on Wednesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/14Summary: Markets were mixed on Friday after Q4 earnings reports from JP Morgan and Citigroup disappointed investors. However, Energy and Tech stocks closed the day higher, helping the Nasdaq recover some of yesterday's loss. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 14, 2022 Facts: +0.59%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 89% Green Good: Support at 200d MA, gain on higher volume, high closing range Bad: Lower high and low, lower weekly close Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly green body, tiny wicks Advance/Decline: 0.83, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.08%), DJI (-0.56%), RUT (+0.14%), VIX (-5.51%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.35%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.17%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets were mixed on Friday after Q4 earnings reports from JP Morgan and Citigroup disappointed investors. However, Energy and Tech stocks closed the day higher, helping the Nasdaq recover some of yesterday's loss. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.59% gain. The candle is mostly green body, and the closing range of 98% comes on higher volume than the previous day. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was the only index to decline, losing -0.56% today, weighed down by large financial institutions and industrial sector stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.08%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +0.14%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -5.51%. Energy (XLE +2.35%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) were the top sectors for the day. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.17%) we at the bottom of the sector list. Retail Sales in December declined more than expected month-over-month, dropping -1.9% compared to a forecast of -0.1%. Industrial Production was also lower than expected. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment for January is also lower than expected, likely impacted by the surge in Omicron cases across the US. The US dollar strengthened after weakening significantly earlier in the week. The dollar index (DXY) rose +0.32% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined, tracking with treasury prices (yields rise, prices drop). Crude Oil Futures continues to track higher, nearing the high levels in October. The put/call ratio rose to 0.875. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at Neutral but moved toward the Greed side. All four largest mega-caps gained. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant gain after declining the most among the four yesterday. It gained +1.77% today. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.51% after hitting resistance at its 21d EMA. All four charts are not looking great, with Amazon (AMZN) struggling the most, 14% below its all-time and 52-week high. Wells Fargo (WFC) topped the mega-cap chart, defying the rest of the Financial sector with an earnings beat and profits growing 86%. On the other end of the mega-cap list is JP Morgan Chase (JPM), which fell -6.15% after missing street revenue estimates. The Daily Update Growth List had a good number of winners today, but most stocks in the list declined. At the top of the list is Futu Holdings (FUTU), with a +3.31% gain. That was followed by another Chinese stock, JD.com (JD), which gained +3.19%. Beyond Meat (BYND) was at the bottom of the list, giving back some of its recent gains with a -6.0% decline today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets will be closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr Holiday. Tuesday will open with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will come after the market closes. Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Goldman Sachs (GS), PNC Financial (PNC) are some of the big financial company earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq got support around the 200d moving average today before closing higher. The index remains below the 15,000 support/resistance area. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, expect a +0.72% gain on Tuesday. The one-day trend line would result in a -0.27% gain. Returning to the trend line from the 12/28 high would result in a -1.57% decline to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a crazy week. Monday and Tuesday looked good as the Nasdaq seemed to catch a bottom intraday on Monday and end the day with a gain on higher volume. Tuesday continued that momentum, but then sentiment turned on Wednesday as more rate increases in 2022 seemed likely from Fed officials' public statements. That resulted in a crushing loss on Thursday and a loss for the week despite some support on Friday. Only two sectors closed the week with gains. Energy rose +5% this week after gaining +10% last week. Communications somehow pulled out a +0.16% for the week. Real Estate was the worst-performing sector for the week as investors anticipate higher interest rates to impact profitability in the sector. The percentage of stocks above their 50d moving averages is still in the low 40% range. That's better than December when it was near 20% for the 50d, but we'd like to see the number near 60%. We need to see some stabilization in the US dollar and the bond market that signals investors are more confident about the Fed's playbook for 2022 (the speed of tapering, the number of interest rate hikes, and the run-off of balance sheet assets). Once that happens, volatility should finally recede a bit in equity markets. Until then, we'll continue to feel some pain and possibly a little more correction. We've only seen a -10% drop from the top for the Nasdaq. The expectation for Tuesday is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/13Summary: Tech stocks sold off this week's gains in a reversal for the Nasdaq. Investors took profits as the Fed talked more about rate hikes in public comments. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 13, 2022 Facts: -2.51%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 5%, Body: 92% Red Good: Close above 200d MA, volume lower on decline Bad: Thick red body, selling all-day, failed support at 15,000 Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.48, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.42%), DJI (-0.49%), RUT (-0.76%), VIX (+15.27%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.49%) and Industrials (XLI +0.22%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.01%) and Technology (XLK -2.59%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Tech stocks sold off this week's gains in a reversal for the Nasdaq. Investors took profits as the Fed talked more about rate hikes in public comments. The Nasdaq closed with a -2.51% decline, returning to the trend line from the 12/28 high. Volume was lower than the previous day. The closing range was only 5%, coming underneath a 92% red body. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed -1.42% lower, led by growth sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.49%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.76%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +15.27%. Only three sectors ended the day with gains, led by the defensive sector of Utilities (XLU +0.49%). Industrials (XLI +0.22%) was the next best sector, followed by Consumer Staples (XLP +0.18%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.01%) and Technology (XLK -2.59%) had the most significant losses. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in lower than expected, growing only 2% month-over-month compared to the analyst forecast of 0.4%. That could indicate inflation is topping out as the producer price index is a forward-looking view on consumer price increases. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims was 230,000, higher than the expected 200,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) continued lower, declining -0.13% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all fell. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped, but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Timber (WOOD) continues to climb higher while other commodities pulled back from recent gains. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.781. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index decreased to 74.78. All four largest mega-caps decline. Apple (AAPL) moved back below its 21d EMA with a -1.90% decline. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant loss of the four, dropping -4.23% today. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2.42%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -2.01%. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) topped the mega-cap list, gaining +5.26% after an exceptional earnings report before the market opened. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list with a -6.75% decline. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. Beyond Meat (BYND) topped the list with a +4.75% gain, defying gravity today thanks to high short interest and a continued bullish sentiment from the Kentucky Fried Chicken deal. CloudFlare (NET) took the brunt of the profit-taking, declining -13.15% to give back all the gains this week and close at its lowest level year-to-date. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data for December will be available in the morning. We'll also get numbers for Industrial Production for December. The Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment Data for January will be available after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance If the index can return to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +2.52% advance tomorrow. The trend line from the 12/28 high points to a -0.44% decline. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -2.37% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's painful to watch, but the market is still figuring out how often and how quickly the Fed will increase rates this year to control inflation. As investors and analysts hang on every word of Fed officials' public statements, they re-evaluate the impact on the bond and equity markets. We can expect more volatility as the month progresses. Based on the broken support today and a new intra-week low, the expectation for tomorrow is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/12Summary: A rally back into large-cap stocks drove the major indexes higher on Wednesday, while small-caps fell back. Consumer Price Index data for December was higher than forecast, but investors remained confident that the Fed would remain vigilant in controlling inflation in 2022. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 12, 2022 Facts: +0.23%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 35%, Body: 37% Red Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Red body, fade after topping 15,200 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Red body in middle of equal length wicks Advance/Decline: 0.71, more declining stocks than advancing Indexes: SPX (+0.28%), DJI (+0.11%), RUT (-0.82%), VIX (-4.29%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +1.01%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.66%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.04%) and Health (XLV -0.29%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A rally back into large-cap stocks drove the major indexes higher on Wednesday, while small-caps fell back. Consumer Price Index data for December was higher than forecast, but investors remained confident that the Fed would remain vigilant in controlling inflation in 2022. The Nasdaq rose +0.23% for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. The red body covers 35% of the candle, sitting in the middle of equal-length upper and lower wicks. The second day of higher highs and higher lows is the start of an uptrend. However, there were more declining than advancing stocks, and volume remained low. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.28% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.11%. Small-caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) did not participate in the rally, declining -0.82% today. The VIX Volatility Index fell -4.29%. Ten out of the eleven S&P 500 sectors rose today. Materials (XLB +1.01%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.66%) were the top sectors. Health (XLV -0.29%) was the only sector to decline. The Core Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in December compared to the forecast of 0.5%. Year-over-year growth was 5.5% compared to an expected 5.4%. Crude Oil Inventories showed higher demand than expected. The 10-year Note Auction didn't move yields much. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply, declining -0.64% today. The US 30y and 2y Treasury Yields rose while the 10y yield declined slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum Futures increased significantly for a second day. The put/call ratio increased to 0.617. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into the Greed range. Apple (AAPL) continued to rally with a +0.26% gain today after closing above its 21d EMA yesterday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) also had gains but have some work before repairing their charts. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.09% today. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.95%. It was followed closely by Tesla (TSLA), which ended the day with a +3.93% advance. Ely Lilly was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -2.44% today. The Daily Update Growth List had mixed results. NIO (NIO) was at the top of the list with a +5.53% gain. Peloton (PTON) was at the bottom of the list with a -5.66% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Produce Price Index data will be available tomorrow morning. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims before the market opens. Earnings reports will include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Delta Air Lines (DAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index rallied in the morning but then faded the rest of the day, closing below the 15,200 support/resistance area. If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, it will meet with the five-day trend line for a -0.43% decline. The trend line from the 12/28 high points to a -2.74% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Two days of higher highs and higher lows is good. However, the index needs to make it back to 15,900 to claim a new trend and attempt a new all-time high. The lowering volume and advance/decline line below 1.0 signals weakness even as the index rallies this week. We need to see the index break back above the 21d EMA and head toward 15,900 on higher volume with broad support. Other key indicators to watch for are the percentage of stocks above their 50d and 200d averages. Both of these indicators remain below 0.5 at the moment. For tomorrow, the expectation is Sideways as we wait for the index to decide on a direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/10Summary: Markets dipped in the morning, but the Nasdaq rallied in the afternoon to close the day with a small gain. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 10, 2022 Facts: +0.05%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 45% Green Good: High closing range, end day in positive on higher volume Bad: Dip below the 200d simple moving average Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick under a thick green body, high closing range Advance/Decline: 0.55, about two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.14%), DJI (-0.45%), RUT (-0.40%), VIX (+3.41%) Sector List: Health (XLV +1.03%) and Technology (XLK +0.02%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.02%) and Industrials (XLI -1.13%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets dipped in the morning, but the Nasdaq rallied in the afternoon to close the day with a small gain. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.05% advance. Volume was higher than the previous day, returning to the 50d average volume. The index dipped below the 200d moving average for the first time since the March 2020 correction. However, it recovered to close slightly higher for the day. That created a long lower wick under a 45% green body and a 97% closing range. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. All major indexes dipped in the morning and recovered in the afternoon, but only the Nasdaq finished the day positive. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.45%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.40%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +3.41%. Only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Health (XLV) rose +1.03% and Technology (XLK) gained +0.02%. At the bottom of the sector list was Materials (XLB -1.02%) and Industrials (XLI -1.13%). The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose +0.22%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield advanced. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices advanced while the Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined further. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.753. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the Fear side of Neutral, but remained at Neutral. Three of the four largest mega-caps ended the day with gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.21%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) had smaller gains of +0.07% and +0.01%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.66%. Intel (INTC) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.31%. Tesla (TSLA) was second on the mega-cap list, climbing +3.03%. Nike (NKE) was at the bottom of the list with a -4.16% decline. Zynga (ZNGA) blew away the Daily Update Growth List with a 40.67% gain after Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) announced a $12.7b acquisition of the company. That's almost twice the market cap for Zynga at the beginning of the session. Take-Two Interactive dropped -13.13% on the news. Surprisingly, the Growth List was mostly gainers. The biggest loser was DraftKings (DKNG) with a -4.07% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Three Fed members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak tomorrow. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook will be released at noon. Albertsons (ACI) will release earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Despite the morning dip, the index was in an uptrend the remainder of the day. If the one-day trend continues into Tuesday, we can expect a +1.81% advance. The trend line from the 12/18 high points to a -1.30% decline. The five-day trend line results in a -3.53% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was an odd day for the market. The Nasdaq dips below its 200d simple moving average, only to recover and close the day with a slight gain. More odd is the number of growth stocks that had significant gains for the day. Seeing big gains for Intel, Tesla and Adobe, while the indexes showed stress is perplexing. Were investors buying the dip and getting positioned back for growth? Or is it a bull trap and further selling is on the horizon? Based on the chart, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. The intraday uptrend (on higher volume) gives some hope, but the overall trend in the chart is still down. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/7Summary: Payrolls and Unemployment data sent a blurry picture to investors on the pace of economic recovery. The uncertainty ended a volatile week with more decline while investors continue evaluate pending rate hikes from the Fed later this year. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 7, 2022 Facts: -0.96%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 20%, Body: 54% Red Good: Lower volume on decline Bad: Lower high, lower low, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Medium size body in middle of candle, slightly longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.78, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.41%), DJI (-0.01%), RUT (-1.20%), VIX (-4.33%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.18%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.92%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.67%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Payrolls and Unemployment data sent a blurry picture to investors on the pace of economic recovery. The uncertainty ended a volatile week with more decline while investors continue evaluate pending rate hikes from the Fed later this year. The Nasdaq declined -0.96%. Volume was much lower than the previous day and is the third day of lowering volume in a row. The candle has a 54% red body in between two similar upper and lower wicks. The upper wick is slightly longer. There were more declining than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) suffered the most significant loss today, declining -1.20%. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -0.41%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined only -0.01%, helped along by large Energy and Financials stocks The VIX Volatility Index declined -4.33%. Energy (XLE +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.18%) were the top performing sectors for another day. Energy has been a top-two sector every day this week. Financials was in the top-two for three of the five days. Technology (XLK -0.92%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.67%) were at the bottom of the sector list today. Nonfarm Payrolls for December increased by only 199,000 compared to a 400,000 forecast by analysts. However, the unemployment rate declined to 3.9% whereas analysts only expected it to drop to 4.1%. The US Dollar weakened with the index (DXY) declining by -0.52%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields gained for the day while the 2y yield declined. Yields are at their highest since the start of the pandemic. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continue to decline (tracking along with treasury prices). The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.743. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into Greed, but remains near neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose from 85.71 the previous week to 89.54 this week. Two of the four largest mega-caps gained today. Apple (AAPL) And Microsoft (MSFT) ended the day with 0.10% and 0.05% gains, but also had lower highs and lower lows than the previous day. Apple (AAPL) is getting resistance at its 21d EMA while the other three, including Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL), are trading well-below both their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alibaba (BABA) led the mega-cap list for another day, gaining +2.86% today. At the bottom of the list was Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), declining -3.87%. Futu Holdings (FUTU) topped the Daily Update Growth List, advancing +6.20%. The list had quite a few gainers, but also quite a few losers. The most significant loss came from Chewy (CHWY), which declined -8.26%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no significant economic events on the calendar for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq, closed just below the 15,000 area today. The level is a support/resistance area and the index bound up and down close to that market. If the index returns to the trend line from the 12/28 high, we can expect a +0.35% gain on Monday. If the one-day trend line continues, then we can expect a -0.74% decline. The five-day trend line leads to a -1.82% loss to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The whole week was a bit depressing for investors. It started off with a new year's rally as investors came back from the holiday. But the sentiment quickly changed and got worse with the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and mediocre economic data throughout the week. Hopefully the first week of the year isn't an omen for the rest of 2022. For Monday, expect sideways or lower based on the chart. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
RTY - Millennium Tower IndexThe Russell 2000 continues to expend energy in a large Range which remains in a weakened condition. 2282.50 was rejected. There is little to support this as the Parking Lot is being vacated. Small to Mid Caps are not faring well in the present Environment with little reason to Position for 2022. Slowly Sinking into a LArger Sell is ahead after the next Retracement. ___________________________________________________________ RTY / M2K will Ourperformi to the Downside.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by HK_L61
3
Daily Market Update for 1/6Summary: Stocks stabilized a bit on Thursday after selling-off the previous day due to the Fed's hawkish meeting minutes release. Small-caps outperformed and investors bought dips in select growth stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 06, 2022 Facts: -0.13%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 59%, Body: 20% Green Good: Support at 15,000. Lower volume on decline. Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Indecisive spinning top candle Advance/Decline: 0.95, just slightly more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.10%), DJI (-0.47%), RUT (+0.56%), VIX (-0.61%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.23%) and Financials (XLF +1.47%) at the top. Health (XLV -1.16%) and Materials (XLB -1.26%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks stabilized a bit on Thursday after selling-off the previous day due to the Fed's hawkish meeting minutes release. Small-caps outperformed and investors bought dips in select growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.13% decline. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has equal upper and lower wicks surrounding a thin green body of just 20%. The candle pattern is a spinning top that signals indecision among bulls and bears. Whether the trend continues or reverses will be determined another day. There were about equal number of advancing and declining issues. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only of the four indexes to gain, advancing +0.56%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.10% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.47%. The VIX Volatility Index remained elevated, falling just -0.61% today. Energy (XLE +2.23%) and Financials (XLF +1.47%) led the sector list again. The two sectors have outperformed in the first week of 2022. Health (XLV -1.16%) and Materials (XLB -1.26%) were the biggest losing sectors today. There were 10,000 more Initial Jobless Claims than expected with the total for the week ending at 207,000, showing some possible impact from the Omicron surge. More insight will come with tomorrow's payroll reports. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI print was 62.0 compared to a forecast of 66.9. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.06%. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y yields rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose slightly. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continued to decline. Silver and Gold both declined. Crude Oil Futures are on the rise, tracking the energy sector higher. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.792. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at Neutral. All four largest mega-caps declined. Apple (AAPL) closed below its 21d EMA. The other three are all below their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +4.51%. Accenture (ACN) was at the bottom of the list with a -4.83% decline. There were many gainers in the Daily Update Growth List, bouncing of the previous day's losses. Beyond Meat (BYND) topped the list with a +14.65% advance. The company announced a deal to provide Beyond Chicken to Yum Brand's Kentucky Fried Chicken the previous day, but the reaction was delayed until today's positive session. Lemonade (LMND) was at the bottom of the list, declining -3.97%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead In the morning, focus will be on Payrolls and Unemployment data for December. Payrolls are expected to increase by 400k while the Unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.1%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq bounced between support at 15,000 and resistance at 15,200 on choppy day that ended in indecision. The one-day trend line and a trend line from the 12/28 high points to a +0.62% gain for Friday. The give-day trend line points to a -0.65% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was a mix of bulls and bears in the market one day after the Fed's surprisingly hawkish meeting minutes. That left us with an indecisive candle on the Nasdaq. It could be the start of a reversal from here or a continuation in the current downtrend. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
What is going on in the market..?All major indexes have reached new lows today and bounced back a little, Which shows sellers are strong..! on the other hand they bounce back a little and none of them even touched the middle of yesterday's candle, which shows buyers are not strong enough! I think any trader in order to be successful should have a predefined plan for trading! That plan must look like an algorithm code: a combination of 0,1, and, if, or..! It means: IF A, B, C... happened I will open the position! But he should not forget to monitor his position! So, IF X, Y, Z, ... happened, I will close my position! But, What if A, B, C, .. do not happen for a while? The answer is I will sit calmly and wait for the next opportunity..! In other words, A, B, C to happen! One of the biggest trading mistakes is not defining a "No-Trade Zone"! I think we are at the highest level of uncertainty in the market, in other words, "No Trade Zone". One question: Did you define your A, B, C,...X, Y, Z??? Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:RUTEducation
by Moshkelgosha
11
Daily Market Update for 1/5Summary: All indexes and sectors decline in late afternoon trading after the Fed released its December meetings minutes that showed a higher-than-expected concern over inflation combined with the tightening labor market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 05, 2022 Facts: -3.34%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 91% Red Good: Lower volume on decline Bad: Close well below the 21d EMA and 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Almost all red body, small upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.18, more than five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.94%), DJI (-1.07%), RUT (-3.30%), VIX (+16.68%) Sector List: Materials (XLB -0.01%) and Energy (XLE -0.02%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.07%) and Real Estate (XLRE -3.25%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview All indexes and sectors decline in late afternoon trading after the Fed released its December meetings minutes that showed a higher-than-expected concern over inflation combined with the tightening labor market. The Nasdaq dropped -3.34%. The index was already on the decline before the Fed meeting minutes made things worse. The candle is 91% red body with a small upper wick and the 1% closing range means no lower wick. There were more than five declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) held up the best, declining just -1.07%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.94%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -3.30%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose +16.68%. All S&P 500 Sectors declined. Materials (XLB -0.01%) and Energy (XLE -0.02%) were the best performers. Technology (XLK -3.07%) and Real Estate (XLRE -3.25%) had the most significant losses. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for December more than doubled the expectation, adding 807,000 payrolls compared to an expected 400,000. Both the Services PMI and Markit Composite PMI for December exceeded forecast. Crude Oil Inventories came in higher than expecting, signaling some softening of demand compared to the forecast. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -0.10%. Long and short term US Treasury Yields rose sharply. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Aluminum Futures are on the rise. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day with Alphabet (GOOGL) having the most significant loss, falling -4.59%. Three of the four continue trading below their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) is testing the 21d EMA, but closed above the line today. Pfizer (PFE) was the top mega-cap of the day with a +2.02% gain. Salesforce.com (CRM) lost the most in the mega-cap list, declining -8.28%. The only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List to gain today were Chinese stocks. Niu Tech (NIU) and Alibaba (BABA) gained +2.41% and +1.34%. The worst losers, GrowGeneration (GRWG), Roku (ROKU), and Enphase (ENPH) all declined more than 11%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers will be available before the market opens. Imports/Exports data will also be in view in the early morning. After the market opens, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index will publish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dove below several key support areas today, seemingly in a free-fall only stopped by the market closing. It's unlikely to happen in a single day, but if the index bounces and moves back toward the trend line from the 12/20 low, that would be a +4.76% gain. The five-day trend line is in decline, but the index would still gain +1.41% if it returned to that line. If the one-day trend continues, that would mean a -2.69% decline tomorrow with the index moving to the 200d moving average. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Despite having already anticipated bond tapering and rate hikes, Investors were surprised today after the Fed minutes showed an even more aggressive move to control inflation. We already felt the impact today on the changed outlook from institutional investors. The question that remains is how much adjustment is needed and to what extend that will continue to weigh bond and equity markets. The expectation for tomorrow is further correction. Lower prices for the Nasdaq. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Best places to go long or short the RussellThe Russell is even cleaner than the Nasdaq. Two major buy / sell areas on the chart. So far the Russell has been playing the game of chop. Sweep the lows, sweep the highs and move in the other direction. The same way we had a failed breakout, we could get a failed break down. Best place to sell 2310-2360. Resistance/Gap combo and the real direction for now is down, so it is with the main trend. 2200 & 2080 are decent for short term trades. As we go down they are good for a bounce. If they get broken they are good to put shorts if the market bounces from lower. Best place to buy long term is 1980-2030. Extreme support combo with 1. Untested breakout / gap, 2. Key Bollinger bands, 3. 400 DMA
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by BitcoinMacro
Daily Market Update for 1/4Summary: While most of the market dipped, cyclical stocks took the lead. Energy and Financials led the day while Industrial and Materials had gains after missing out on yesterday's momentum. The rotation shouldn't be a huge surprise after the lopsided gains the previous day and the selling signals of richly (dare we say over) valued growth stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 4, 2022 Facts: -1.33%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 32%, Body: 68% Red Good: Closed above the 21d EMA and 50d MA Bad: Dip below the key moving averages, decline on higher volume. Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Large red body with no upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.51, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.06%), DJI (+0.59%), RUT (-0.16%), VIX (+1.87%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.46%) and Financials (XLF +2.63%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.06%) and Health (XLV -1.32%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview While most of the market dipped, cyclical stocks took the lead. Energy and Financials led the day while Industrial and Materials had gains after missing out on yesterday's momentum. The rotation shouldn't be a huge surprise after the lopsided gains the previous day and the selling signals of richly (dare we say over) valued growth stocks. The Nasdaq lost -1.33%. Volume was higher than the previous day and returned to the 50d average. The candle is covered by 68% red body with no upper wick, as the index sold off immediately after the market opened. After dipping below the 21d EMA and 50d MA, the Nasdaq recovered to close above the two lines, creating the lower wick of the candle. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) had a record close, helped by large cyclicals to gain +0.59%. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed down -0.06%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.16%. Both indexes held some gains from yesterday. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) increased by +1.87%. Five of the S&P 500 sectors gained for the day, led by the four cyclical sectors. Energy (XLE +3.46%) and Financials (XLF +2.63%) were at the top. Technology (XLK -1.06%) and Health (XLV -1.32%) were the worst-performing sectors. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December was 58.7, lower than the expected 60.0. JOLTs Job Openings for November was also lower than expected, showing 10.6 million, compared to the forecast of 11.1 million. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed much higher demand than expected. The US Dollar Index (DXY) increased by +0.06%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose for the day while the 2y Treasury Yield declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell for another day. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced slightly. Gold and Silver rose today after sharp declines yesterday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.611. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Greed but continuing to inch toward Extreme Greed. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Only Apple (AAPL) remains above its 21d EMA and 50d MA after setting records the previous day. Toyota Motor Corporation (TM ) topped the mega-cap list with a +6.92% gain. Those gains come alongside huge days for Ford (F) and General Motors (GM), which gained +11.67% and +7.47%. Each of the three had separate positive news stories. Toyota topped GM in sales for 2021. Ford announced an increase in production for the all-electric F-150 pickup. GM rallied the day before the all-electric Chevrolet Silverado is to debut. Another auto manufacturer was at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Telsa (TSLA) had a -4.18% decline after gaining more than +13% the previous day. Only two stocks in the Daily Market Update Growth List gained for the day. Ehang Holdings (EH) gained +3.77%, and D.R. Horton (DHI) gained +0.44%. There were many losses greater than 5% on the list. Sea Limited (SE) had the most significant loss, declining -11.41%. It was just not a good day for growth stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data for December will be available in the morning. After the market opens, we'll get the Markit Composite and Services Purchasing Managers Index data. Crude Oil Inventories will be available later in the morning. The Fed will release the December Meeting Minutes in the afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped below the 21d EMA, 50d MA, and the 15,600 support area before closing slightly above all three. That may provide some support for further gains tomorrow. If the index returns to the trend line from the 12/20 low, that would mean a +2.19% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.02% decline. Continuing the one-day trend would result in a -1.32% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I didn't quite forecast a rotation yesterday, but it was in the back of my mind. Two things stood out. First, on a day with broad gains across the indexes and high advance/decline ratios, why were two cyclical sectors (Industrials and Materials) left out of the gains. I wouldn't expect them to lead for the day, but greater than 1% declines? The second signal was that several "darling" stocks with significant growth over the past year sold off yesterday. DataDog and MongoDb were two big decliners. It was a signal that investors were moving away from richly valued growth stocks and toward opportunities in undervalued small-caps and, as we saw today, value plays in cyclicals. There are likely more rotations to come as investors position for this year. Based on the chart, the expectation for the Nasdaq is Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 1/3Summary: Happy New Year! The first day of 2022 had indexes trading higher as money and trading volume came back into the market. Stocks broadly shared gains, but not all sectors benefited from the advances. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 03, 2022 Facts: +1.20%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 53% Green Good: Close at intraday high, great advance/decline ratio Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long lower wick, underneath 53% green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.77, three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.64%), DJI (+0.68%), RUT (+1.21%), VIX (-3.60%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.10%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.87%) at the top. Health (XLV -1.03%) and Materials (XLB -1.30%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Happy New Year! The first day of 2022 had indexes trading higher as money and trading volume came back into the market. Stocks broadly shared gains, but not all sectors benefited from the advances. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +1.20% gain. The index closed at its intraday high, creating a 53% body in the upper half of the candle while the long lower wick formed in the first hour of trading. There were more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Small-caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed, with the index gaining +1.21%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +0.64%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.68%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -3.60%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Energy (XLE +3.10%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.87%) were at the top of the list. Health (XLV -1.03%) and Materials (XLB -1.30%) were at the bottom. It's good to see the Energy sector leading, with the Financial sector also having positive gains along with the growth sectors. The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.58% on the first day of the year. US Treasury yields were sharply higher as investors moved back into equity instruments. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond Prices were lower, tracking lower along with treasuries (prices move opposite yields). Gold was also lower as the market increased exposure to riskier assets after the holiday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.535. The CNN Fear & Greed index is back in the Greed range after being in the Fear range before Christmas. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index moved up to 85.71 last week. Three of the four largest mega-caps gained. Apple (AAPL) made headlines with a record close and the first company to exceed $3 trillion in market cap. Amazing! Today's gain was +2.50%. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +2.21%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.10%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.47%. Apple and Microsoft are the only two trading above their 21d EMA. Today, Tesla (TSLA) topped the mega-cap list with a +13.53% gain. The company revealed that its number of car deliveries for Q4 smashed analyst expectations. Pfizer (PFE) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -4.06% decline. Tesla also topped the Daily Update Growth List. Following Tesla was Ehang Holdings (EH) which gained +6.64%. There were surprisingly more decliners than advancers in the list. DataDog was at the bottom of the list with a -8.02% decline. Those declines were common among high growth, richly valued stocks. Today was not a good start for those looking to leave behind 2021 volatility for these stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is an OPEC meeting scheduled for Tuesday morning. After the market opens, we'll get the ISM Manufacturing data. We'll also get the JOLTs Job Openings reports which have been influential to sentiment over the past year. After the market closes, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be available. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance If the index returns to the trend line from the 12/20 low, that would mean a +1.37% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a +0.61% advance. Following the five-day trend line would result in a -0.64%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Looking across all inputs, it appears to be a constructive start to the new year. Volume is much higher than last week's holiday volume but has not yet returned to the fifty-day average volume. The advance/decline ratios were good, and growth sectors all had gains. However, several stocks that have enjoyed rich valuations, such as DataDog and MongoDb, dropped today, showing investors have limits heading into the new year. For tomorrow, the expectation is higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
A portfolio of 25 stocks for a possible January EffectHistorically, some days or months have tended to be better or worse for stocks. These so-called market anomalies challenged theories of efficient markets. However, research shows that as these anomalies became more well-known and trading became more automated, these have largely all disappeared. The January Effect is the perceived seasonal tendency for stocks to rise in that month. Since 1938, 29 out of 30 years of gains seen in January-February resulted in an average yearly S&P 500 advance of 20%. The January Effect is theorized to occur when investors sell winners to incur year-end capital gains taxes in December and use those funds to speculate on weaker performers. Like other market anomalies and calendar effects, the January Effect is considered by some to be evidence against the efficient markets hypothesis. In the below charts you can see the monthly performance of the Major indexes in the past decade! Golden squares show the monthly performance of the Januaries in the last 10 years! S&P500: Nasdaq100: Dow Jones: Russell 2000: Academic evidence suggests that any patterns in market timing where one is able to consistently generate abnormal returns are generally short-lived, as these opportunities are quickly arbitraged away and markets become more efficient as traders and investors increasingly learn about the patterns. The January Effect seems to affect small caps more than mid or large caps because they are less liquid. Since the beginning of the 20th century, the data suggests that these asset classes have outperformed the overall market in January, especially toward the middle of the month. Conclusion: I think based on the chart evidence and Data, Increasing the weight of smaller caps could be the best choice for the next 3-5 weeks! My 25 picks for the next 3-5 weeks would be in the following watchlist: www.tradingview.com You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. Reference articles: www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Moshkelgosha
3
Daily Market Update for 12/23Summary: Even amongst mixed economic data, markets continued to rally as more information emerges about Omicron. Optimism continues to build that the global economy can power thru further pandemic waves. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 23, 2021 Facts: +0.85%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 74%, Body: 64% Green Good: Rise above 15,600 support area, closing range of 74% Bad: Lower volume, some minor selling before close Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a slightly longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.24, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.62%), DJI (+0.55%), RUT (+0.89%), VIX (-3.60%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.39%) and Industrials (XLI +1.18%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.01%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Even amongst mixed economic data, markets continued to rally as more information emerges about Omicron. Optimism continues to build that the global economy can power thru further pandemic waves. The Nasdaq climbed another +0.85%. The closing range of 74% comes above a 64% green body. The slightly longer upper wick formed just before close as investors closed positions before a long holiday weekend and expected lower volume over the next few weeks. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Small-caps continue to lead this week with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +0.89% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.62% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.55%. The VIX Volatility Index fell to its lowest point since rising in late November, declining -3.60% today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.39%) and Industrials (XLI +1.18%) were the top two sectors. Utilities (XLU -0.01%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) were at the bottom of the list. Economic data was mixed. Durable Goods Orders for November was higher than expected. However, PCE Price Index data for November was also higher than expected as high inflation continues. Personal Spending was lower than the previous month, but matched the forecast. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims stayed steady at 205,000. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined -0.06%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose for the day. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.642. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved back toward Neutral, but remains in the Fear range. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index rose to 67.02 from 52.22 the week before. All four largest mega-caps had gains. Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (APPL), and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.45%, +0.36% and +0.34%, respectively. Amazon (AMZN) rose just +0.02% and still closed below its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Tesla (TSLA) topped the mega-cap list for a second day, gaining +5.76% today. Pfizer (PFE) was at the bottom of the list with a -1.41% decline. Chewy (CHWY) recovered most of its post-earnings decline with a +6.28% advance today, bringing it to the top of the Daily Update Growth List. JD.com (JD) was at the bottom of the list, losing -6.92%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Friday due to the Christmas Holiday. There are no significant economic events or earnings reports on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose above the 15,600 support area today. If the one-day and five-day trend lines continue into Monday, that would mean another +0.84% advance. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a -2.98% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Three days of green in the markets was a nice present leading into the Christmas holiday. Volume was shrinking however and one can expect volume to continue to be low for the next two weeks. That could give more influence to the bulls or bears, but typically the last week and first week of the year are bullish. The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321