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RUSSELL 2000

RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 12/17 Summary: Small-caps outperformed the rest of the market today as investors repositioned for the holidays. The reposition and options expiration drove larger than average volume. All S&P 500 sectors declined. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, December 17, 2021 Facts: -0.07%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 64%, Body: 40% Green Good: Support at ~15,000, high closing range Bad: Volume higher on a decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Green body, upper wick slightly longer than lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.23, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-1.03%), DJI (-1.48%), RUT (+1.00%), VIX (+4.86%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE -0.34%) and Communications (XLC -0.40%) at the top. Energy (XLE -2.04%) and Financials (XLF -2.20%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Small-caps outperformed the rest of the market today as investors repositioned for the holidays. The reposition and options expiration drove larger than average volume. All S&P 500 sectors declined. The Nasdaq closed down by -0.07%, unable to hold onto an intraday rally. Volume was well above yesterday's volume and the 50d average volume for the Nasdaq. The 40% green body is below a good closing range of 64%. The upper wick is longer than the lower wick, representing the pullback from the intraday high. Still, there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only index to gain for the day, advancing +1.00%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.03%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -1.48%. The VIX Volatility Index gained +4.86%. All S&P 500 sectors declined today. Real Estate (XLRE -0.34%) and Communications (XLC -0.40%) had the smallest losses. Energy (XLE -2.04%) and Financials (XLF -2.20%) had the most significant losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed by +0.70%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined for the day while the 2y Yield rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Aluminum and Copper futures rose sharply over the last two days. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.782. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but is still in the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 52.55. Amazon (AMZN) was the only one to advance of the four largest mega-caps, gaining +0.68%. Microsoft dipped -0.34%, closing below its 50d moving average. Google (GOOGL) also closed below its 50d moving average, dropping -1.88% today. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.65%, the only of the four to remain above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Broadcom (AVGO) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +2.30%. Novo Nordisk (NVO) declined -8.23% to end up at the bottom of the list. Oracle (ORCL) also had a significant decline, falling -6.39% today after rumors the company would acquire Cerner (CERN). Cerner rose almost 13% on the news. Zoom (ZM) rose to the top of the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +9.51% on news that Apple and Alphabet are delaying their return to office plans because of the Omicron variant. The growth list had more gainers than losers. At the bottom of the list was Niu (NIU), which declined -3.82%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Nike (NKE) will release earnings on Monday, one of the few large-cap reports next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened with a gap down but rose through the day to close the gap, closing just below the 15,200 support/resistance area. If the index can follow its one-day trend line, that would mean a +1.32% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 11/22 high leads to a +0.15% gain. The five-day trend line would result in a -0.42% decline to start the week. Next week is a four-day week, with the markets closing on Friday for the Christmas holiday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's a bit odd to see the advance/decline ratio above 1.0 on a day when all sectors declined. It's just more evidence that small caps ruled the day as investors moved from big tech in the continuing reaction to planned interest rate hikes in 2022. Will the small-cap trend continue? It might. The end of the year into January of the following year tends to be good for the small-cap segment. I like the intraday move higher on very high volume for the Nasdaq even though the index closed lower. The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 12/16 Summary: Investors seemed to rethink their positioning after the Fed updated the public on bond tapering and interest rates. Growth stocks and big tech saw the biggest losses, while cyclical sectors benefited. Some new fears of lockdowns around Omicron may also have contributed to the sell-off. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 16, 2021 Facts: -2.47%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 12%, Body: 87% Red Good: Volume lower, higher high, higher low Bad: Deep red day, close below 21d EMA, 50d MA, and 15,200 support Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly red body with short lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.55, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.87%), DJI (-0.08%), RUT (-1.95%), VIX (+6.64%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +1.26%) and Materials (XLB +1.02%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.21%) and Technology (XLK -2.83%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors seemed to rethink their positioning after the Fed updated the public on bond tapering and interest rates. Growth stocks and big tech saw the biggest losses, while cyclical sectors benefited. Some new fears of lockdowns around Omicron may also have contributed to the sell-off. This update is much shorter than normal due to travel this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dropped below the trend line from the 10/22 high. If it returns to that trend line, expect a +0.38% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -0.65% decline. If the one-day trend line continues, we could see another -2.91% decline tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Expect volatility to end the week as investors react to central bank updates around the world. We thought the Santa Rally was starting early, but it seems we'll have to endure a few days of institutional repositioning before the holidays. Expecting Lower for Friday. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 12/15 Summary: Markets pivoted to the upside after Jerome Powell's statements confirmed that the Fed changed its stance on inflation. Bond purchase tapering will complete in March, and we can expect three quarter-point interest rate hikes in 2022. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, December 15, 2021 Facts: +2.15%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 64% Green Good: Higher close above 21d EMA on higher volume, good advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Bullish outside day, Large green body above a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.75, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.63%), DJI (+1.08%), RUT (+1.65%), VIX (-11.88%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +2.65%) and Health (XLV +2.05%) at the top. Materials (XLB +0.22%) and Energy (XLE -0.49%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets pivoted to the upside after Jerome Powell's statements confirmed that the Fed changed its stance on inflation. Bond purchase tapering will complete in March, and we can expect three quarter-point interest rate hikes in 2022. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +2.15%. The index dipped in the morning but reversed after the FOMC released its statements. That created a bullish outside day marked by the higher high and higher low. The green body covers 64% of the candle. The closing range of 98% leaves only a tiny wick compared to the long lower wick formed in the morning. There were more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dipped to its 2021 support area before reversing to end the day +1.65% higher. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.63%, closing just short of a record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +1.08%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) fell -11.88%. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Technology (XLK +2.65%) and Health (XLV +2.05%) were at the top of the list. Energy (XLE -0.49%) was the only sector to decline. Retail Sales for November were less than expected, growing only 0.3% month-over-month compared to 0.8% expected. The left Business Inventories and Retail Inventories higher than expected. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for December came in at 31.90 compared to a forecast of 25.0. The projection for interest rates by the end of 2022 is 0.90, which would come via three interest rate hikes to begin after bond purchase tapering completes in March. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined -0.24%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices increased. All four largest mega-caps gained. Apple (AAPL) rose +2.85%, nearing another record close. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) popped above their 21d EMA with +1.92% and +1.76% gains. Amazon (AMZN) closed above its 50d MA with a +2.50% advance. Eli Lilly (LLY) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +10.39% after the company updated investors, including plans for new products in the next year. Nvidia (NVDA) was the second-best mega-cap, gaining +7.49%. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -3.25% decline. The Daily Update Growth List had mostly gainers today. Tech companies dominate the top of the list. Zscaler (ZS) was the top performer with a +8.05% climb. At the bottom of the list is Roku (ROKU), which declined -7.95%. Morgan Stanley maintained an underweight rating for the stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will start with Building Permits, and Housing Starts data for November. We will also get the weekly Jobless Claims report and the December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Later in the morning, Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be available. Adobe (ADBE), Accenture (ACN), Rivian (RIVN), FedEx (FDX), and Jabil (JBL) will release earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed above its 21d EMA and below support/resistance at 15,600. If the one-day trend line continues into Thursday, that will mean a +1.41% gain. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/22 high, that would be a loss of -1.96%. The five-day trend line points to a -3.54% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Can the Santa Claus Rally begin now? Now that the Fed's outlook and plan are on the table, there are fewer unknowns for the remainder of the year. Today's bullish reaction to the Fed's statements provides an optimistic outlook for the next few weeks. The expectation for Thursday is Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 12/14 Summary: Indexes moved lower for a second day as investors await the result of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The Producer Price Index recorded its biggest increase since 2010, signaling more inflation on the horizon. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, December 14, 2021 Facts: -1.14%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 64%, Body: 10% Green Good: Support at 15,100 Bad: Close below 50d moving average, decline on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin green body in center of candle with long wicks, signals indecision Advance/Decline: 0.4, 5 declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.75%), DJI (-0.30%), RUT (-0.96%), VIX (+7.78%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +0.60%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.07%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.10%) and Technology (XLK -1.64%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes moved lower for a second day as investors await the result of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The Producer Price Index recorded its biggest increase since 2010, signaling more inflation on the horizon. The Nasdaq declined -1.14%, gapping down at open and closing below its 50d moving average line. After dipping below the 15,200 support area, buyers returned when the index neared 15,100. It climbed into the afternoon to close near the morning open. The up and down created a spinning top candle that signals indecision in the market. There were five declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.30%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -0.75%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -0.96% and is now sitting just above the support area that the small-cap index held since February. The VIX Volatility index rose +7.78%. Only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Financials (XLF +0.60%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.07%) were at the top of the list. Real Estate (XLRE -1.10%) and Technology (XLK -1.64%) performed the worst. The Producer Price Index rose 0.8% month-over-month and 9.6% year-over-year. That was higher than the 0.5% monthly, and 9.2% yearly increases that analysts expected. The producer price index signals future inflation as producers will pass increased costs to consumers. The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.20%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y yields gained for the day. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. In commodities, Timber prices dropped sharply. All four largest mega-caps declined today. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant loss, falling -3.26% and closing below its 21d EMA after testing the 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -1.32%, closing below its 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.80% but is still near all-time highs. Amazon (AMZN) dipped below its 200d MA before recovering and ending the day with a -0.28% decline. Alibaba (BABA) was the top-performing mega-cap for the day, advancing +3.55%. Adobe (ADBE) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, losing -6.60% after a JPMorgan Chase analyst downgraded the stock. Beyond Meat (BYND) rose +9.29% today after an analyst upgraded it from underweight to neutral on news that their relationship with McDonald's is expanding. The stock topped the Daily Update Growth List. At the bottom of the list was CloudFlare (NET), falling -9.98% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data for November will be available in the morning. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated after the market opens. The most important news will come after the FOMC meets and releases a statement at 2 pm that includes their economic projections and interest rate decision/projection. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued its slide today, closing below the 50d moving average. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/22 high, that would mean a +0.50% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.33% decline, while the five-day trend line ends with a -0.90% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up So we wait. We wait for the Fed to decide on Wednesday about the pace of Bond Purchase Tapering and Interest Rate Increases to control a crazy amount of inflation. With such a pivotal event, the trends in the chart don't matter as much. Still, I'll set an expectation for Sideways or Lower based on the current downtrend and lack of support in critical areas, including the 50d moving average. If the Fed is less hawkish than expected, we could see a nice upside reversal tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 12/13 Summary: Fears over Omicron renewed caution as investors also anticipate the Fed meeting occurring this week. Defensive sectors gained for the day while all major indexes declined. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, December 13, 2021 Facts: -1.39%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 91% Red Good: Close above the 50d MA and 15,400 support area Bad: Decline on higher volume, low closing range, tiny wicks around a red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.41, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.91%), DJI (-0.89%), RUT (-1.42%), VIX (+8.67%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.31%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.58%) and Energy (XLE -2.78%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Fears over Omicron renewed caution as investors also anticipate the Fed meeting occurring this week. Defensive sectors gained for the day while all major indexes declined. The Nasdaq fell -1.39%. The decline came with higher volume than the previous day, marking another distribution. The index sank below its 21d exponential moving average but closed above its 50d simple moving average. It also closed above the 15,400 support area. The closing range was 2%, underneath a 91% red body. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJI) had similar declines, falling -0.91% and -0.89%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped - 1.42%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +8.61%. Only the four defensive sectors ended the day with gains. Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.31%) were the top performers. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.58%) and Energy (XLE -2.78%) had the most significant declines. The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.33%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields retreated again on new Omicron fears. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices remained flat while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Silver and gold prices gained for the day. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.689. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved back toward Extreme Fear but remained in the Fear range. All four largest mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) closed below its 50d MA, declining -1.54% today. The other three are still above the 50d MA and the 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) declined -2.07%. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.47%. Microsoft (MSFT) fell -0.92%. Pfizer (PFE) was the top mega-cap, gaining +4.59% today after announcing they will acquire Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA). Arena gained +80% on the news. Nvidia (NVDA) had the most significant decline in the mega-cap list, losing -6.74% today. Peloton (PTON) gained +7.35%, topping the Daily Update Growth List. Peloton shot back at the HBO show "And Just Like That" with a digital advertisement to respond to the storyline. I won't include any spoilers here, but it's Big! The growth list is mostly losers for today. Ehang (EH) joined Nvidia at the bottom of the list with a -5.97% decline. Other Chinese stocks, including FUTU Holding (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR), also declined by more than 5%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Producer Price Index data for November will be available in the morning. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be available after the market closes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped below the 21d EMA again, finding support at 15,400 and closing above its 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a +0.19% gain for tomorrow. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a -0.10% decline. If the one-day trend line continues, expect a -0.54% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Well, we thought Omicron fears had subsided, but news from the UK over the weekend rose the alarm again. Additionally, investors are nervous about what will come out of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, which will include projections on Interest Rate hikes for 2022-2023. Based on the chart, the expectation for tomorrow is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 12/10 Summary: Consumer Price Index data was about what analysts expected, avoiding any big surprises in the morning. Now investors await the Fed meeting next week to determine how officials will respond to soaring inflation. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, December 10, 2021 Facts: +0.73%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 76%, Body: 1% Green Good: Higher close, above 21d EMA Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin body in upper part of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.47, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.95%), DJI (+0.60%), RUT (-0.38%), VIX (-13.39%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +2.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.69%) at the top. Financials (XLF +0.10%) and Communications (XLC +0.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer Price Index data was about what analysts expected, avoiding any big surprises in the morning. Now investors await the Fed meeting next week to determine how officials will respond to soaring inflation. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.73% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has a green body covering only 1% of the range, while a long lower wick extended beyond yesterday's low. The lower low is joined by a lower high, continuing a three-day downtrend. The closing range was good at 76% but there were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.95% to achieve a record closing price. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.60%. Small caps didn't do well, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining -0.38%. The VIX Volatility index came down -13.39%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Technology (XLK +2.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.69%) were the top sectors. Technology was helped to the top by investors glad to not see surprises in the Consumer Price Index data. Consumer Staples was boosted by the continued high inflation represented by the data. Financials (XLF +0.10%) and Communications (XLC +0.05%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The Consumer Price Index data came in as expected, with Core CPI at 0.5% month-over-month and 4.9% year-over-year. Total CPI (which includes food and energy) was slightly higher at 0.8% month-over-month instead of the expected 0.7%. Michigan Consumer Expectations for December registered at 67.8 against the expectation of 62.0. Consumer Sentiment was at 70.4, better than the expected 67.1. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -0.67%. The 30y Treasury yield ended the day higher while the 10y and 2y yields dropped. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.760. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward neutral but remained in the Fear range. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index is 69.46 after being above 100 for five weeks. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined for the day, losing -1.12% but recovering from a dip below the 50d moving average line to close above the line. Apple (AAPL) soared to another record close, gaining +2.80% for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) had a similar gain, advancing +2.83%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.25%. After beating earnings expectations, Oracle (ORCL) topped the mega-cap list with a +15.61% gain. PayPal (PYPL) was at the bottom of the list with a -1.69% decline. Whereas the mega-cap list had more gainers than losers, most of the Daily Update Growth List were losers. SnowFlake (SNOW) topped the list with a +2.75% gain. The biggest loser was RobinHood (HOOD) which declined -8.12%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The OPEC Monthly Report is planned for Monday morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed above the 21d EMA after dipping to a lower low for the day. If the index returns to the five-day trend line for Monday, that would mean a +1.17% gain. The one-day trend line leads to a -0.10% decline. If the index goes the other way and returns to the trend line from the 11/22 high, expected a -1.49% decline on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Although the Consumer Price Index data came in near expectations, it still shows inflation at its highest point since the 1980s. All eyes are now on the Fed to see what monetary policy changes they make in next week's meeting. Analysts expect faster bond purchase tapering completed by March and quicker interest rate hikes in 2022. The expectation for Monday is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 12/9 Summary: Now that Omicron fears seem behind us, investors' focus turned to inflation and how the Fed might react if Consumer Price Index data is higher than expected. That caused investors to move into defensive positions on Thursday ahead of the CPI report due on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 9, 2021 Facts: -1.71%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 71% Red Good: Lower volume on decline Bad: Low closing range, close below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body with no lower wick, long upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.35, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.00%), RUT (-2.27%), VIX (+8.44%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.27%) and Health (XLV +0.23%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.73%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Now that Omicron fears seem behind us, investors' focus turned to inflation and how the Fed might react if Consumer Price Index data is higher than expected. That caused investors to move into defensive positions on Thursday ahead of the CPI report due on Friday. The Nasdaq declined -1.71% on lower volume than the previous day. The closing range was 2% underneath a 71% red body formed from sellers controlling the entire day. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock, a reversal from several days of a high advance/decline ratio. The Russell 2000 (RUT) took the most significant loss, declining -2.27%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -0.72%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat for the day, avoiding losses thanks to large health, consumer staples, and recovery stocks. The VIX Volatility Index rose +8.44%. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.27%) and Health (XLV +0.23%) were the only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors to gain for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -1.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.73%) had the biggest losses. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims data came in better than expected. There were only 184,000 new claims compared to a forecast of 215,000 and last week's 227,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.26%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields receded slightly while the 2y yield moved higher. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and Gold prices both fell as the US Dollar strengthened. The put/call ratio declined to 0.689. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains at the Fear level. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index dove to 69.46 after being above 100 for five weeks. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) was the only one to dip back below its 21d EMA, losing -1.13% today. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.56% but got support at its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -0.37%. Apple (AAPL) set another all-time high before ending the day with a -0.30% decline. Abbvie (ABBV) and Pfizer (PFE) were the top mega-caps for the day, gaining +1.87% and +1.32%, respectively. Tesla (TSLA) declined -6.10%, falling to the bottom of the mega-cap list but getting support at its 50d moving average. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day. RH (RH) led the way with a +5.47% gain after surprising investors with its earnings beat yesterday and providing upgraded guidance. For most of the growth list, the losses were steep. Sumo Digital (SUMO) dropped the most with a -12.47% decline, followed by Peloton (PTON), which lost -11.35%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The big news for tomorrow morning will be the November Core Price Index data that measures inflation. The data will drive the outlook for analysts as they anticipate how quickly the Fed will taper bond purchases and when they would start interest rate hikes to control inflation. We will also get the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations data for December after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq failed to get support at the 15,600 area and closed below its 21d EMA. If the index can return to its 5-day trend line, that would mean a +3.30% gain for Friday. That will take some very good but unlikely news on inflation. If the trend line from the 11/22 high continues, expect another -0.95% decline tomorrow. If the index continues the one-day trend line, that would mean a -1.24% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's always something for investors to fear in 2021. Omicron was a nice distraction, and we got a short rally once positive news arrived about the variant's potency against vaccination. However, the conversation about the Fed's changing monetary policy in the face of inflation never ended, and now its front-and-center again. Expect Sideways or Lower tomorrow unless the CPI data comes in better than anticipated. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 12/8 Summary: Major indexes marched higher today as confidence grows among investors that Omicron is not as dangerous as initially thought. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, December 8, 2021 Facts: +0.64%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 55% Green Good: Higher high, higher low and high closing range, good advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Green body at top of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.92, almost two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.31%), DJI (+0.10%), RUT (+0.79%), VIX (-9.09%) Sector List: Health (XLV +0.75%) and Communications (XLC +0.73%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.32%) and Financials (XLF -0.53%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Major indexes marched higher today as confidence grows among investors that Omicron is not as dangerous as initially thought. The Nasdaq climbed +0.64% and closed near the intraday high. Volume was lower than the previous day, but almost two stocks advanced for every declining stock. The green body covers 55% of the candle, which has a 97% closing range. A longer lower wick formed at market open, but bulls bought the dip and sent the index higher. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other indexes with a +0.79% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +0.31%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) only gained +0.10%. The VIX Volatility Index fell another -9.18%. Health (XLV +0.75%) and Communications (XLC +0.73%) let the sector list. Communications led for most of the day, but Health caught up and topped the sector list just before close. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.32%) and Financials (XLF -0.53%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The JOLTs Job Openings report showed 11.033 million openings for October, more than the expected 10.369 million. The report signals a continued labor shortage as people quit jobs at a record rate while companies are trying to hire for the holiday season. The US Dollar weakened with the index (DXY) dropping -0.35% today. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields continue to climb while the 2y yield fell slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell by only -0.02%. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell -0.67%. Crude Oil Futures gained another +5.21% as Omicron fears eased worries about travel demand. The put/call ratio rose to 0.706. The CNN Fear & Greed indicator moved closer to Neutral but remained at the Fear level. All four largest mega-caps stayed positive for the day, although Amazon (AMZN) closed flat. Apple (AAPL) set another record close, gaining +2.28% today. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.62%. Microsoft (MSFT) held onto a +0.01% gain. PayPal (PYPL) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.31%. At the bottom of the list was Toyota Motor (TM ), which declined -2.65%. Roku (ROKU) topped the daily update growth list with a +18.23% gain. The company announced a multi-year deal with Google to keep YouTube and YouTube TV on its streaming platform. DocuSign (DOCU) was the second-best performer on the list. The stock climbed +10.92% after the CEO bought $4.8 million in stock. Only four stocks in the growth list declined. Lululemon (LULU) dropped -2.06% ahead of earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be available in the morning. Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST), Lululemon (LULU), and Chewy (CHWY) report earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq did a steady climb toward the 16,000 resistance area but still has a ways to go. If the one-day and five-day trend lines continue, it will result in a +0.63% advance for Thursday. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a -3.05% decline. We are still watching for 15,833.11, which is the high of last week. A new weekly high will build confidence that the Omicron correction is behind us. It will also help if volume increases as the index moves higher. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Overall it was a productive day with broad gains across many stocks, but volume is decreasing as the markets move higher. We can have more confidence in the rally if the volume increases, showing more strength in the move. The expectation for Thursday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!

RUT'S RSI lowest since Covid's crash !Omicron + Speedy tapering are the keys Or could be the start of a correction ! Already 12% down form top !

Daily Market Update for 12/7 Summary: Investors rushed back into risk assets as more assurances came from experts that Omicron might spread faster but have less severe symptoms. The drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline also reported that their antibody-based COVID-19 therapy is effective against the new variant. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, December 7, 2021 Facts: +3.03%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 92% (w/gap), Body: 83% Green Good: Mostly green body, close above 50d MA, 21d EMA and 15,600 support area. Bad: Gap up on lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up and mostly green body, upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 2.41, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+2.07%), DJI (+1.40%), RUT (+2.28%), VIX (-19.46%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +3.49%) and Energy (XLE +2.34%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.75%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.22%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors rushed back into risk assets as more assurances came from experts that Omicron might spread faster but have less severe symptoms. The drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline also reported that their antibody-based COVID-19 therapy is effective against the new variant. The Nasdaq gapped up at open, starting the day with a 2% gain and ending with a +3.03% gain. The candle is 83% green body with an upper wick and no lower wick. The closing of 92% includes the gap from yesterday's high. Volume was lower than the previous day, but gains were shared broadly with more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +2.07%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.40%. Small-caps did well with the Russell 2000 (RUT), climbing +2.28%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -19.46%. The volatility index is still at an elevated level. All S&P 500 sectors advanced for a second day. Technology (XLK +3.49%) and Energy (XLE +2.34%) were the top performers. The defensive sectors Utilities (XLU +0.75%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.22%) were at the bottom. Nonfarm Productivity for Q3 dropped more than expected, but it didn't seem to bother investors. Unit Labor Costs rose 9.6% compared to the expectation of 8.3%. The US Dollar index (DXY) remained flat, climbing only +0.01%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y yields rose, continuing their recovery after dropping among Omicron fears last week. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose sharply. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices ticked higher also. Crude Oil Futures are rising again. Timber (WOOD) had another steep advance, adding to yesterday's gains. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.621. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward neutral but is still at the Fear level. All four largest mega-caps had significant gains today, closing above their 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) had a record close after a +3.54% gain. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +2.87%. Amazon (AMZN) climbed by +2.80%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +2.68%. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list with a +7.96% gain. The list is primarily gainers today. Comcast (CMCSA) lost -5.29%, ending the day at the bottom of the mega-cap list after providing slower broadband growth guidance. The stocks in the Daily Update Growth List had a very good day. At the top of the list was MongoDB (MDB), gaining +16.42% after smashing earnings expectations. Sumo Digital (SUMO), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Fiverr (FVRR) all gained more than 10%. Only three stocks in the growth list declined. The biggest loser was DocuSign (DOCU) which continues to struggle after last week's disappointing guidance. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead After the market opens on Wednesday, the JOLTs Job Openings report will be available. The report made headlines last week as investors focused on the mass exodus of US workers. There was some evidence in last week's labor data that participation may be on the rise again. Crude Oil Inventories will be available later in the morning. There is a 10-Year Treasury Note Auction scheduled in the afternoon. GameStop (GME), RH (RH), and Lovesac (LOVE) are a few of the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Today, the Nasdaq closed above its 50d moving average and 21d exponential moving average. It also moved above the 15,400 and 15,600 support areas. If the one-day trend line continues, we can expect a +0.44% gain for Wednesday. If the index pulls back to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -2.16% decline. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a -3.27% decline. 15,833.11 is the high of last week. Creating a higher high for this week will be a key indicator of a recovery from the Omicron sell-off. Reaching that milestone higher volume will make it an even more decisive move. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Optimism over the lower impact of Omicron sent markets on a rally today. Will the rally continue? Analysts still need to measure the response to positive pandemic news against the reactions from the Fed on monetary policy. There is also the question of which sectors should benefit from the news. Technology soared today, but many believe that value stocks and recovery stocks should lead the way for a rebound. This week will continue to be interesting. The expectation for Wednesday is Higher. A move up with more volume would be a confidence booster. Stay healthy and trade safe!

$sofi i've actually been eying this stock for maybe a month now, i dont short or play puts so i waited patiently for entry. today i bought 400 shares and i am looking for this to make highs back to $22-$25. sofi seems to have a good army of investors and institutional holders. this could become a long term hold if bank charter news creeps closer anytime soon!

Long

by stockjunkie4

Daily Market Update for 12/6 Summary: Whiplash moves in the market driven by Omicron fears continued today. Optimism gained over the weekend as doctors reported mild symptoms for Omicron cases, and it seems vaccines are still effective against the new variant. The positive outlook helped drive markets higher today. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, December 6, 2021 Facts: +0.93%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 84%, Body: 31% Green Good: High closing range, rally off 15,000 support Bad: Lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, small green body in upper half of the candle Advance/Decline: 1.36, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.17%), DJI (+1.87%), RUT (+2.05%), VIX (-11.38%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +1.76%) and Industrials (XLI +1.69%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.95%) and Health (XLV +0.57%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Whiplash moves in the market driven by Omicron fears continued today. Optimism gained over the weekend as doctors reported mild symptoms for Omicron cases, and it seems vaccines are still effective against the new variant. The positive outlook helped drive markets higher today. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.93% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The closing range of 84% comes above a 31% green body in the upper half of the candle. The long lower wick formed in the first minutes after the market opened. However, investors bought the dip and brought the index back to the 50d moving average line, where it met resistance. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other major indexes, gaining +2.05% today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also performed well, advancing +1.87% as investors looked for value in industrials and recovery stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +1.17%. The VIX Volatility Index remains high even though it declined -11.38% today. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.76%) and Industrials (XLI +1.69%) were at the top of the sector list. Technology (XLK +0.95%) and Health (XLV +0.57%) were at the bottom. The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.15%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields gained for the day. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Crude Oil Futures moved higher after falling sharply for the past week. Timber (WOOD) prices rose as the index moved to its highest point since September. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.729 after nearly hitting 1.0 on Friday. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Fear from Extreme Fear at the end of last week. All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.15%, although it faded back from an intraday gain of +3.73%. Microsoft (MSFT) has a long lower wick that tested the 50d moving average line before ending the day with a +0.98% gain. Amazon (AMAZN) gained +1.11%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.81%. Both closed above their 50d moving average lines. Most mega-caps gained for the day. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +10.40% today as China tech seems to be on the rebound. The worst-performing mega-cap of the day was Pfizer (PFE) -5.14% as investors exited vaccine trades after more experts reduced fears in their Omicron outlook. Joining Alibaba (BABA) at the top of the Daily Update Growth List was FUTU Holdings (FUTU), a Chinese fintech stock that gained +10.01% for the day. Most of the stocks in the growth list gained, but some familiar names lost. Cloudflare (NET) declined -7.51%, beat in decline only by Zscaler (ZS), which lost -12.44%. Investors are moving away from richly priced tech stocks and looking at value stocks for the next cycle. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Trade Balance data for October will be available in the morning. We will also get a look at Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for Q3. In the afternoon, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be released. AutoZone (AZO), Pagerduty (PD), and Dave & Busters (PLAY) are a few of the earnings releases for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq got support around the 15,000 area before moving higher in the morning. It then reached resistance at the 50d moving average line before closing slightly below it. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, that would mean a +1.72% gain. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a -1.33% decline, while the five-day trend line ends with a -2.26% decline. We need to see a close above the 50d moving average at 15,279.93 as a first test of the rebound. Next, look for the index to move above 15,545.99, where the 21d exponential moving average line is now. Finally, 15,833.11 is the high of last week. Creating a higher high for this week will be a key indicator of a recovery from the Omicron sell-off. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We are not out of the woods with Omicron. News headlines are still flashing positive and negative sentiment as the global story unfolds. It seems for now that fears are subsiding, and investors are optimistic again about value and reopening stocks. Given the inside day candle today, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!

RTY Expansion zone - Trend TBD We're experiencing another Expansion zone as highlighted before. Market will be deciding on Trend. Under that average price will result in a down trend.

Daily Market Update for 12/3 Summary: Omicron fears continued to drive a volatile week while investors tried to understand the impact of mixed employment data on Fed bond purchase tapering. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, December 3, 2021 Facts: -1.92%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 29%, Body: 64% Red Good: Support at 15,000 Bad: Close below 50d moving average, closing range, decline on higher volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, mostly red body with a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.3, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.84%), DJI (-0.17%), RUT (-2.13%), VIX (+9.73%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +1.24%) and Utilities (XLU +1.00%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.67%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.94%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Omicron fears continued to drive a volatile week while investors tried to understand the impact of mixed employment data on Fed bond purchase tapering. The Nasdaq lost another -1.92% today. That brought the weekly decline to -2.92%, and the index is -6.95% below the all-time high set last week. The candle is 64% red body with a longer lower wick. The closing range of 29% signals that the bears were in control. The higher high and lower low create a bearish outside day. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) performed the best for the day, declining only -0.17%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -0.84%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -2.13%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +9.74%. Only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. They were defensive sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.24%) and Utilities (XLU +1.00%) were the top two sectors. Technology (XLK -1.67%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.94%), both growth sectors, were at the bottom. Only 210,000 Nonfarm Payrolls were added in November. Analysts expected 550,000. However, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.2%, beating the expectation of 4.5%. The two together sent mixed signals to investors trying to figure out the impact on Fed monetary actions. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index showed higher than expected economic activity, registering 69.1 against the expectation of 65.0. Markit Composite PMI and Services PMI were also higher than expected. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.02%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields dropped sharply again. The 2y Treasury yield also declined. There was no change to High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices, but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. All four largest mega-caps declined today. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant decline, ending the day with a -1.97% loss after testing support at its 50d moving average line. Amazon (AMZN) dipped below its 200d moving average before recovering to end the day with a -1.38% decline. Alphabet (GOOGL) continues to trade around its 50d moving average, dipping -0.67% today. Apple (AAPL) is the only of the four to trade above its 21d exponential moving average and 50d moving average. Pepsico (PEP) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +2.55%, benefiting from defensive investments in the consumer staple sector. The worst-performing mega-cap was Adobe, declining -8.24% today. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth List advanced today. Zynga (ZNGA) and UP Fintech (TIGR) gained +5.89% and +5.49%, while Workday (WDAY) held onto a small gain of +0.12%. At the bottom of the list, DocuSign (DOCU) plunged -42.22% after providing a very disappointing revenue outlook to investors during its earnings call. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no major US economic data scheduled for Monday. MongoDB (MDB), Coupa Software (COUP), GitLab (GTLB), H&R Block (HRB), and Sumo Logic (SUMO) will report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed below its 50d moving average line, continuing to decline until getting support at the 15,000 area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/22 high, that will mean a +0.10% gain for Monday. The five-day trend line points to a -1.24% decline. If the one-day trend line continues, that would mean a -2.52% decline on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There are two forces this week causing declines in the indexes. The one all over the news in fears of the Omicron variant. However, there is plenty of emerging commentary that Omicron may not be as bad as initially thought. The second force has been the talk of accelerated tapering from the Fed's Jerome Powell. Early in the week, he showed a change in attitude toward inflation, removing the word transitory from describing it. He indicated that more aggressive action might be required to control an overheated economy. Given the low employment rate, investors seem sure that bond purchase tapering will happen faster than previously expected, and more interest rate hikes can be expected from a hawkish Fed. The expectation for Monday is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!

will the Russell 2000 hold the line? $iwm $rut Russell2000 has been sideway for most of 2021. is this distribution or the pause before the next launch. the broad market sell off has me thinking bad things for the indices. Price to sales on the biggest names seem to be getting reprices from the lofty growth rates. time will tell, but I dont think this is the bottom.

by optionfarmers

Daily Market Update for 12/2 Summary: Markets bounced back from the Omicron fear-driven declines this week. The gains were broad across the market, sending all S&P 500 sectors higher. Yet, there is still progress to be made before investors can feel comfortable. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 2, 2021 Facts: +0.83%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 79%, Body: 68% Green Good: Gain on good volume, good closing range, advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Longer upper wick over green body, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.44, more advancing stocks than decline stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.42%), DJI (+1.82%), RUT (+2.74%), VIX (-10.19%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +2.98%) and Industrials (XLI +2.97%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.92%) and Health (XLV +0.49%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets bounced back from the Omicron fear-driven declines this week. The gains were broad across the market, sending all S&P 500 sectors higher. Yet, there is still progress to be made before investors can feel comfortable. The Nasdaq closed +0.83% higher, performing not as well as the other indexes as investors focused on value stocks and the small-cap segment. Volume was lower than the previous day but higher than the 50-day average volume. A 68% green body covers the candle, with a long upper wick and no lower wick. The closing range of 79% is excellent, and there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Small-caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the larger stocks, and the index gained +2.74%. Broad gains across all sectors helped the S&P 500 (SPX) to a +1.42% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also had an outstanding performance, climbing +1.82%. The VIX Volatility Index is still high, despite receding -10.19% today. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Financials (XLF +2.98%) and Industrials (XLI +2.97%) were at the top of the sector list. Technology (XLK +0.92%) and Health (XLV +0.49%) were at the bottom of the list. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 222,000, better than the expected 240,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.10% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields gained. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices are higher today as they continue to bounce up and down over the past week. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were also higher for the day. Gold prices are back to where they were at the beginning of November, and silver is back to where it was in October. They rose during the first part of last month but sold off sharply in the past few weeks. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) gained today, rising +1.36% and closing above its 50d moving average line. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.61% to close just above its 21d EMA. The company signaled lower demand for the holiday season. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.18%. Microsoft closed just below its 21d exponential moving average while Amazon tested support at its 50d moving average. Comcast (CMCSA) was the top mega-cap for the day, rising +4.93%. Most mega-caps gained for the day. Pfizer gave back some recent gains, declining -3% today and ending at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Snowflake (SNOW) soared to the top of the Daily Update Growth List with a +15.85% gain after smashing earnings and revenue estimates. Okta (OKTA) gained +11.66% after beating earnings guidance. Ehang (EH) holdings dropped to the bottom of the list with a -13.53% decline. The company's quarterly loss was wider than expected. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We will get additional labor data on Friday morning. Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, the Participation rate, and the Unemployment Rate are among the data points available before the market opens. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be available after the market opens. Big Lots (BIG) will report earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved above the 50d moving average line and met resistance in the 15,400 area. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, expect another +1.05% gain. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 11/22 high point to a -0.40% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Omicron fears subsided today, allowing markets to recover from the recent sell-off. However, we are not out of the woods. The Nasdaq has a lower high and lower low today, which continues a downtrend. Look for a new daily high and a push upward on higher volume to build confidence. Next week, we'll need to see a new weekly high. As it is, the expectation for Friday is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 12/1 Summary: Fears over omicron continued to put pressure on markets, despite optimism that drove a morning rally. Not only did the US find its first case of the new variant, but the Fed's Jerome Powell signaled that inflation might not recede next year as previously thought. The two caused markets to give up early gains and decline further. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, December 01, 2021 Facts: -1.83%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 87% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Failed morning rally turned into a huge sell-off Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Longer upper wick above a long red body, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.22, more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.18%), DJI (-1.34%), RUT (-2.34%), VIX (+14.45%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.18%) and Health (XLV -0.18%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) and Communications (XLC -2.31%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Fears over omicron continued to put pressure on markets, despite optimism that drove a morning rally. Not only did the US find its first case of the new variant, but the Fed's Jerome Powell signaled that inflation might not recede next year as previously thought. The two caused markets to give up early gains and decline further. The Nasdaq ended the day with a -1.82% decline. The morning started with a +1.8% gain, but then worries crept back in, causing the index to lose more than -3.6% from the intraday high. The candle has a longer upper wick above an 87% red body. The 2% closing range shows bears were in control all the way into close. Volume was slightly lower than the previous day but still elevated over the 50d average volume. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small caps had the worst performance, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining -2.34%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.18%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -1.34%. The VIX Volatility index closed the day at its highest level since January, climbing +14.45% today. Utilities (XLU +0.18%) was the only S&P 500 sector that gained for the day. Energy (XLE -1.06%) was the leading sector before the morning reversal. Health (XLV -0.18%) was the second-best sector for the day. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) and Communications (XLC -2.31%) were at the bottom of the sector list. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for November was higher than expected. ISM Manufacturing Employment also increased with the Purchasing Managers Index rising to 61.1, compared to the expectation of 61.0. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.15%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields started the morning higher but ended the day lower. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined to their lowest point in 2021. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also fell today, but not as sharply. The put/call ratio rose to 0.770. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into the Extreme Fear area. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) set a new all-time high before falling, ending the day with a -0.32% loss. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.15%, closing below its 21d EMA for the second day. Alphabet (GOOGL) moved further below its 50d MA with a -0.60% decline. Amazon (AMZN) dropped the most, losing -1.81%. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) soared +5.42% in the morning before giving back some of the gains. TSM still topped the mega-cap list with a +2.97% gain for the day. Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Procter & Gamble (PG) all gained more than 1% for the day, closing among the few gainers in the mega-cap list. Salesforce.com (CRM) disappointed investors on their revenue outlook, dropping the stock to the bottom of the list with a -11.74% decline. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day. JD.com was the top gainer with a +1.27% advance. The biggest loser was CloudFlare (NET), declining -12.77% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will be available in the morning. Marvell (MRVL), Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR), Domo (DOM), and Ehang (EH) are a few of the earnings reports expected tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below another support level at 15,400 to close right at its 50d moving average line. All trend lines are downward moving. If the index can return to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +1.98% gain for tomorrow. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a +1.53% gain. If the one-day trend line continues into Thursday, expect a -2.22% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Markets were in free fall on Wednesday as the drama around the Omicron variant continued to grow. Governments are responding aggressively to the new variant as scientists scramble to answer questions on how fast it will spread and whether it will bypass vaccines and natural immunity. Still, a lot of today's decline could be from Jerome Powell's statements on continued high inflation in the second half of 2022. Those statements are signaling a much more hawkish Fed, which could accelerate bond tapering and interest rate hikes. The expectation for Thursday is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 11/30 Summary: Lower consumer confidence and elevated Omicron fears sent stocks lower while Jerome Powell piled on with news of an accelerated bond tapering timeline. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 30, 2021 Facts: -1.55%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 23%, Body: 47% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Lower high, lower low, decline on much higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body in the middle of two long wicks. Advance/Decline: 0.33, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.90%), DJI (-1.86%), RUT (-1.92%), VIX (+18.42%) Sector List: Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.35%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -2.92%) and Communications (XLC -3.17%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Lower consumer confidence and elevated Omicron fears sent stocks lower while Jerome Powell piled on with news of an accelerated bond tapering timeline. The Nasdaq declined -1.55% for the day. Volume was higher than the previous day and much higher than the 50d average volume. The candle is long, nearly stretching to yesterday's high and last week's low, with a thick red body covering 47% of the middle. The closing range of 23% is not great, and three stocks declined for every stock that advanced. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.90%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -1.86%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped another -1.92% and is fast approaching the bottom of its trading range since February 2021. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) climbed by +18.42%. All S&P 500 sectors declined for the day. However, Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.35%) faired the best, possibly boosted by news of a new iPhone SE device in the first quarter of 2022. Utilities (XLU -2.92%) and Communications (XLC -3.17%) were the bottom two sectors. CB Consumer Confidence for November was at 109.5, lower than the expected 111.0. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was also lower than expected, registering 61.8 compared to the expectation of 67.0. Jerome Powell was surprisingly hawkish in his comments before congress today, accelerating a timeline for bond purchase tapering after citing a strong economic recovery and high inflation. Janet Yellen pleaded with congress again to raise the debt ceiling to avoid defaults that could begin by December 15. Congress delayed the decision by a temporary agreement as a deadline approached in October. The US Dollar weakened with the index (DXY) declining -0.31% today. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields fell while the 2y Treasury Yield rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond Prices dropped. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond Prices rose for another day. Silver and Gold Prices both declined for another day. Crude Oil Futures fell another -8.37%. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all declined. The put/call ratio rose to 0.723. The CNN Fear & Greed Index fell further into the Fear area, almost reaching Extreme Fear. Of the four largest mega-caps, Apple (AAPL) was the only one to advance, gaining +3.16% on rumors of a new iPhone SE release in Q1 of 2022. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) closed below their 21d EMA, declining -1.79% and -1.53%. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed below its 50d MA, losing -2.50% today. Apple was the top mega-cap for the day, followed by Pfizer (PFE), which gained +2.54%. Facebook (FB) was the biggest loser in the mega-cap list, falling -4.01% along with the rest of the Communications sector. Pfizer's gain came in contrast to its main competitor Moderna (MRNA). Pfizer's message has been more positive on the effectiveness of current vaccines against Omicron. Moderna's CEO told the press late on Monday that he was concerned current vaccines wouldn't be effective. That sent futures tumbling overnight and set the mood for the market at the open. Tesla (TSLA) was the only stock in the Daily Update Growth List to gain today, advancing +0.68%. At the bottom of the growth list were Fiverr (FVRR) and Snowflake (SNOW), both declining more than -6%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead ADP Nonfarm Employment Data will be available before the market opens tomorrow. After the market opens, ISM Manufacturing Data, including Employment and the Purchasing Managers Index, will be available. Crude Oil Inventories are to be available later in the morning. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen are scheduled for additional comments. The Beige Book will be released in the afternoon. Tomorrow's earning reports include Snowflake (SNOW), Synopsys (SNPS), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Okta (OKTA), Splunk (SPLK), and Five Below (FIVE). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq again dropped below the 21d EMA and the 15,600 support/resistance area. The trend line from the 11/22 high points to a +0.04% lateral move for Wednesday. The five-day trend line results in a -0.25% decline. If the one-day trend line continues, it will mean a -1.63% drop for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's much fear in the market this week as investors digest news about Omicron, the Bond Tapering schedule, and the looming debt ceiling deadline. The fear shows up in stock price weakness, treasury bond price strength, and the rising put/call ratio. Expect continued volatility as each of these develops over the next few weeks. The expectation for Wednesday is Lower. Some good news could help turn the trend around. Stay healthy and trade safe!

RTY daily oversold RTY oversold on the daily, but it still went down during the original COVID tank.... Indicators say buy here, but the other indices are not oversold yet. IWM chart shows the same.

by hungry_hippo

Daily Market Update for 11/29 Summary: Investors reassessed the risks of the new Omicron variant and determined the impact may be less than initially thought on Friday. Equities rose while bond yields declined. All S&P 500 sectors gained for the day, despite gains not being broadly shared across individual stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 29, 2021 Facts: +1.88%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 73%, Body: 34% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, good closing range Bad: Faded from intraday high, advance/decline line low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Medium-sized green body in between equal length upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.47, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+1.32%), DJI (+0.68%), RUT (-0.18%), VIX (-19.78%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +2.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.55%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.25%) and Industrials (XLI +0.17%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors reassessed the risks of the new Omicron variant and determined the impact may be less than initially thought on Friday. Equities rose while bond yields declined. All S&P 500 sectors gained for the day, despite gains not being broadly shared across individual stocks. The Nasdaq rose +1.88%. Volume returned to pre-holiday levels. The candle has a medium-sized green body in between equal length upper and lower wicks. The chart shows a higher high and a higher low, and the closing range is good at 73%, but there were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.32%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +0.68%. Small-caps did not do well, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining -0.18% in a rollercoaster session. The VIX Volatility Index fell back -19.78% after soaring over 50% on Friday. All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Technology (XLK +2.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.55%) were at the top of the list. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.25%) and Industrials (XLI +0.17%) were at the bottom. It's notable that some caution persisted with the Utilities (XLU +1.48%) sector in the third position in the list and outperforming the broader S&P 500 index. Pending Home Sales for October grew 7.5% month-over-month, much higher than the expected +0.9%. Jerome Powell testified before Congress this morning, stating that the new Omicron variant and rising cases of COVID in the world could further impact supply chain issues, put more upward pressure on prices, and hurt job growth. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.13% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields recovered some of Friday's sharp decline. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices increased. Silver and Gold prices declined. Crude Oil Futures rose after a massive decline on Friday. The put/call ratio declined to 0.591 as investors looked to buy the dip. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped into the Fear area. The four largest mega-caps all advanced for the day. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.19%. Microsoft (MSFT) closed above its 21d EMA after dipping below the line on Friday, gaining +2.11% today. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +1.63%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +2.35%, closing above its 50d MA but remaining below its 21d EMA. Chipmakers did well today as Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list with a +5.95% advance. Tesla (TSLA) and Qualcomm (QCOM) followed Nvidia in the list, with +5.09% and +4.55% gains. Most mega-caps gained. Pfizer (PFE) was the worst-performing mega-cap of the day, declining -2.96% after climbing more than 6% on Friday. The Daily Update Growth List was about half gainers and half losers. Nvidia also topped the growth list, followed by Zscaler (ZS), which gained +5.65% and reports earnings tomorrow. The biggest loser on the list was GrowGeneration (GRWG). The cannabis stock declined -6.73% -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead CB Consumer Confidence numbers will be available in the morning. Janet Yellen will join Jerome Powell in more testimony before congress. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be available in the afternoon. Salesforce.com (CRM), Zscaler (ZS), NetApp (NTAP), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Box Inc (BOX), and UP Fintech (TIGR) report earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq climbed back above its 21d EMA today. Despite fading from the intraday high, the index closed well above the key moving average line. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, we can expect a +1.18% gain. The trend line from the 11/10 low points to a +0.25% gain. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -1.54% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was a lot more confidence among investors on Monday than there was on Friday. Still, there are some signs of weakness. The low advance/decline line means investors were picky about where to place their bets. The Utilities sector is a defensive play for investors and was the third-best sector, outperforming the S&P 500 index. Finally, today's intraday high landed at the 50% retracement from last Monday's all-time high. At that point, the index started to fade in the afternoon. Pay attention to comments from Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen tomorrow morning. Also on the list of worries is funding for the government, which has a deadline looming this week. Based on the chart, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher, but there could be a lot of volatility this week. Hang on for a rough ride! Stay healthy and trade safe!

Daily Market Update for 11/26 Summary: Few stocks avoided the sell-off on Friday as investors fled the market on fears of a significant new variant of the Coronavirus. Treasury Yields dropped as money moved from equities to bonds. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 26, 2021 Facts: -2.23%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 13%, Body: 63% Red Good: Not much, lower volume avoids distribution day Bad: Drop below 21d EMA and below 15,600, very low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, low closing range, lower high/low Advance/Decline: 0.16, More than six declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.27%), DJI (-2.53%), RUT (-3.67%), VIX (+54.04%) Sector List: Health (XLV -0.37%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.26%) at the top. Financials (XLF -3.32%) and Energy (XLE -4.02%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Few stocks avoided the sell-off on Friday as investors fled the market on fears of a significant new variant of the Coronavirus. Treasury Yields dropped as money moved from equities to bonds. The Nasdaq fell -2.23%, dropping below the 21d EMA and the 15,600 support area. As the index tried to rally, that area became resistance. The candle is 63% red body with an upper wick longer than the lower wick. The closing range of 13% shows that sellers were in control into the close. There were more than six stocks that declined for every stock that advanced. Small-caps took the biggest hit, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropping -3.67%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -2.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -2.53%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) shot up +54.04%, closing at its highest point since February. All S&P 500 sectors declined for the day. Health (XLV -0.37%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.26%) had the smallest losses. Good performances from Pfizer and Moderna helped the Health sector. Financials (XLF -3.32%) and Energy (XLE -4.02%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Financials fell on the lower Treasury Yields. Energy fell along with all travel stocks as countries implemented new travel restrictions. The US Dollar index fell -0.74%. The US Dollar weakened while the Japanese Yen strengthened. The Euro also strengthened relative to the US dollar. US treasury yields dropped sharply. The US 30y and 10y yields fell -6.86% and -9.40%, while the 2y yield dropped -21.80%. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Crude Oil Futures fell -11.15% on new travel restrictions. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum Futures all dropped as well. Gold prices rose slightly while Silver prices declined. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.756. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped well into the Fear level. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index remained above 100 for a fifth week, climbing slightly to 103.14 this week. The index comes out on Wednesdays, so Friday's sell-off is not counted. It is unusual to stay above 100 for five weeks, so the new variant scare may be just what money managers needed to finally lower exposure. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) remained above its 21d EMA despite falling -3.17% today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) fell below their 21d EMA, with -2.44% and -2.12% declines. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed below both its 21d EMA and 50d MA, declining -2.69% today. Pfizer (PFE) was the best performer among a small number of mega-caps that gained today. Pfizer rose +6.11%. Stay-at-home stock Netflix (NFLX) was in the top three, gaining +1.12%. Mastercard (MA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -4.66% today. A lot of familiar names from 2020 popped to the top of the Daily Update Growth List. Zoom Video (ZM) and Peloton (PTON) topped the list with 5.72% and 5.67% gains. Chewy (CHWY) and DocuSign (DOCU) were third and fourth. Chinese stocks fell the most. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) were at the bottom of the growth list, declining -7.66% and -8.67%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead What we learn about the new Coronavirus variant over the weekend will be the top economic news. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen will speak on Monday morning at 10:00a, and the threat of a new wave of restrictions will be a topic. Other Fed officials speak throughout the day. Pending Home Sales data for October will be available on Monday morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq fell below the 15,600 area and closed below its 21d EMA. After attempting a rally in the afternoon, the index met resistance at the same 15,600 area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/10 low, it would mean a +2.31% gain on Monday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.03% decline. If the one-day trend line continues into Monday, it would mean another -2.73% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The news was grim. A new variant of the Coronavirus out of South Africa, now named Omnicron, threatens to shut down travel and begin new lockdowns in countries worldwide. Not much is known about the variant yet, but scientists see similarities to the changes in Delta, although they haven't proven anything about Omnicron's characteristics yet. So what happens on Monday depends on what headlines come out over the weekend. Will scientists and journalists declare we overreacted, or will they double-down with a message of caution among fear of a powerful variant? Based on today's performance, the expectation for Monday is lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!

Updated

Daily Market Update for 11/24 Summary: Mixed economic data caused a dip in the morning before indexes reversed and mostly closed higher. Trading volume was significantly lower on the day before the Thanksgiving holiday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 24, 2021 Facts: +0.44%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 65% Green Good: High closing range, support at 15,600, A/D ratio Bad: Low volume, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick green body above a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.13, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.23%), DJI (-0.03%), RUT (+0.15%), VIX (-4.13%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Energy (XLE +0.98%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Materials (XLB -0.71%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Mixed economic data caused a dip in the morning before indexes reversed and mostly closed higher. Trading volume was significantly lower on the day before the Thanksgiving holiday. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.44% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The index dipped to the 15,600 area before reversing and moving higher the rest of the day. The dip created a long lower wick underneath a thick green body covering 65% of the candle. The closing range of 99% is excellent, but the lower high and higher low make an inside day for the index. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.23% for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +0.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.03%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -4.13%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Energy (XLE +0.98%) were the top sectors for the day. Real Estate likely got a boost from inflation fears. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Materials (XLB -0.71%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Core Durable Goods Orders for October were on par with expectations, but total Durable Goods Orders (including transportation items such as airplanes) were below the forecast. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 199,000, significantly better than the expectation of 260,000. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment for November were both better than expected. That aligns well with rising consumer spending, even among higher inflation. High inflation continues to be a concern as the PCE Price Index data for October grew at a higher rate than in September. The FOMC released the November Meeting Minutes in the afternoon. Analysts picking apart the minutes now expect a faster pace for bond purchase tapering and potentially a higher number of interest rate hikes in 2022. Markets responded positively to the meeting minutes, rallying after the release. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY), gaining +0.36% for the day. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y yield continued to climb. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.633. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in the Greed area but is moving toward neutral. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index remained above 100 for a fifth week, climbing slightly to 103.14 this week. The exposure to stocks remains high as other investment instruments cannot beat high inflation. All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) had the biggest gain among the four, advancing by +0.33%. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.23% but remained below its 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) had slight gains, inching up +0.07% and +0.01%, respectively. Shopify (SHOP) was the top gainer for the day, gaining +3.54% headed into the biggest shopping weekend of the year. Pepsico (PEP) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -0.91%. Most stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day. CloudFlare (NET) topped the list, climbing +6.90% on Wednesday after dropping more than 10% on Monday. SNAP (SNAP) declined -1.99% and ended up at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Holiday. They will open again on Friday but will close early at 13:00. There is no economic data or significant earnings reports scheduled for the next two days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below the 21d EMA in the morning before gaining support at 15,600 and rallying most of the day. The close above the 21d EMA and high closing range are positive signals. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, expect a +1.08% gain. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/10 low, that will result in a +0.54% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -1.17% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Mixed economic news caused some selling in the morning on Wednesday, but investors came back in to buy the dip. The higher inflation is not providing many options for investors outside of the stock market. That will mean more volatility and rotations over the remainder of 2021 as investors search for better stock returns. Based on the inside day and lower volume for Wednesday, I'm expecting a Sideways move for Friday's short trading session. Stay healthy and trade safe!

that's what SL is for.recently russel broke the ceiling that was holding it for almost a year. now it would be interesting entering a long during the retest. placing the SL just bellow last low made the 27th of october. not because it's a safe trade but becasuse of the RR involved, since that the range has been broken, this leaves us with a proyection to the up side equivalent to the range it selve, wich is also the 1.6fib proyection of the recent impulse after the lst corrective phase. currently the price is sitting on the 50% retracement of the move done until now. on daily there are clear signs of a correction in act, volume is not as high as during the ceiling break and tho it made almost the sale movement. on 4htf stochastic is starting to cross to the upside, i find stochastic the best indicator to trade russel's mid high tf, since it's a "range indicator", and in a range is where rus has been for almost a year. on the 1H ft, there are divergences on stoch and rsi. this doesn't mean that the divergence can't follow forming. in the end, it's a nice RR trade of 4:1, in'm already booked in at the 50%fib, and if goes to 38% i will think about adding contracts, using the same sl. take in count that trading is not about having a 80% hit rate, that's impossible, and if some one says he does...well he was probably long during 2020/21. i mean, it doesn't surprise me that people will have had great RR these 2 years, but that shouldn't be taken as reference. the normal hit rate should be around 50% and risk managing like if your life depended on it makes your account grow steadily and constantly. use the power of a steady compound growth rather than a yolo and use SL, que pa' eso estàn Ramon

Long

by warrenbuffettdemicasa

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