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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 11/24Summary: Mixed economic data caused a dip in the morning before indexes reversed and mostly closed higher. Trading volume was significantly lower on the day before the Thanksgiving holiday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 24, 2021 Facts: +0.44%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 65% Green Good: High closing range, support at 15,600, A/D ratio Bad: Low volume, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick green body above a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.13, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.23%), DJI (-0.03%), RUT (+0.15%), VIX (-4.13%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Energy (XLE +0.98%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Materials (XLB -0.71%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Mixed economic data caused a dip in the morning before indexes reversed and mostly closed higher. Trading volume was significantly lower on the day before the Thanksgiving holiday. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.44% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The index dipped to the 15,600 area before reversing and moving higher the rest of the day. The dip created a long lower wick underneath a thick green body covering 65% of the candle. The closing range of 99% is excellent, but the lower high and higher low make an inside day for the index. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.23% for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +0.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.03%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -4.13%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.34%) and Energy (XLE +0.98%) were the top sectors for the day. Real Estate likely got a boost from inflation fears. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Materials (XLB -0.71%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Core Durable Goods Orders for October were on par with expectations, but total Durable Goods Orders (including transportation items such as airplanes) were below the forecast. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 199,000, significantly better than the expectation of 260,000. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment for November were both better than expected. That aligns well with rising consumer spending, even among higher inflation. High inflation continues to be a concern as the PCE Price Index data for October grew at a higher rate than in September. The FOMC released the November Meeting Minutes in the afternoon. Analysts picking apart the minutes now expect a faster pace for bond purchase tapering and potentially a higher number of interest rate hikes in 2022. Markets responded positively to the meeting minutes, rallying after the release. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY), gaining +0.36% for the day. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y yield continued to climb. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.633. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in the Greed area but is moving toward neutral. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index remained above 100 for a fifth week, climbing slightly to 103.14 this week. The exposure to stocks remains high as other investment instruments cannot beat high inflation. All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) had the biggest gain among the four, advancing by +0.33%. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.23% but remained below its 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) had slight gains, inching up +0.07% and +0.01%, respectively. Shopify (SHOP) was the top gainer for the day, gaining +3.54% headed into the biggest shopping weekend of the year. Pepsico (PEP) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -0.91%. Most stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day. CloudFlare (NET) topped the list, climbing +6.90% on Wednesday after dropping more than 10% on Monday. SNAP (SNAP) declined -1.99% and ended up at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Holiday. They will open again on Friday but will close early at 13:00. There is no economic data or significant earnings reports scheduled for the next two days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below the 21d EMA in the morning before gaining support at 15,600 and rallying most of the day. The close above the 21d EMA and high closing range are positive signals. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, expect a +1.08% gain. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/10 low, that will result in a +0.54% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -1.17% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Mixed economic news caused some selling in the morning on Wednesday, but investors came back in to buy the dip. The higher inflation is not providing many options for investors outside of the stock market. That will mean more volatility and rotations over the remainder of 2021 as investors search for better stock returns. Based on the inside day and lower volume for Wednesday, I'm expecting a Sideways move for Friday's short trading session. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
that's what SL is for.recently russel broke the ceiling that was holding it for almost a year. now it would be interesting entering a long during the retest. placing the SL just bellow last low made the 27th of october. not because it's a safe trade but becasuse of the RR involved, since that the range has been broken, this leaves us with a proyection to the up side equivalent to the range it selve, wich is also the 1.6fib proyection of the recent impulse after the lst corrective phase. currently the price is sitting on the 50% retracement of the move done until now. on daily there are clear signs of a correction in act, volume is not as high as during the ceiling break and tho it made almost the sale movement. on 4htf stochastic is starting to cross to the upside, i find stochastic the best indicator to trade russel's mid high tf, since it's a "range indicator", and in a range is where rus has been for almost a year. on the 1H ft, there are divergences on stoch and rsi. this doesn't mean that the divergence can't follow forming. in the end, it's a nice RR trade of 4:1, in'm already booked in at the 50%fib, and if goes to 38% i will think about adding contracts, using the same sl. take in count that trading is not about having a 80% hit rate, that's impossible, and if some one says he does...well he was probably long during 2020/21. i mean, it doesn't surprise me that people will have had great RR these 2 years, but that shouldn't be taken as reference. the normal hit rate should be around 50% and risk managing like if your life depended on it makes your account grow steadily and constantly. use the power of a steady compound growth rather than a yolo and use SL, que pa' eso estàn Ramon
AMEX:IWMLong
by warrenbuffettdemicasa
3
Daily Market Update for 11/23Summary: Big tech and growth stocks continued their slide on Tuesday as Treasury Yields rise in anticipation of action from the Fed on inflation. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 23, 2021 Facts: -0.50%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 59%, Body: 12% Red Good: Recovered to close above 21d EMA, rising advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower high, low and close and dip below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick, thin red body, good closing range Advance/Decline: 0.54, about two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.17%), DJI (+0.55%), RUT (-0.15%), VIX (+1.10%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.07%) and Financials (XLF +1.57%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.73%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech and growth stocks continued their slide on Tuesday as Treasury Yields rise in anticipation of action from the Fed on inflation. The Nasdaq dipped below its 21d Exponential Moving Average, then recovered before closing the day with a -0.50% decline. Volume was lower than the previous day. The dip created a long lower wick below the 12% red body. The closing range was 59%. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fared better with +0.17% and +0.55% advances. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.15%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +1.10%. Energy (XLE +3.07%) and Financials (XLF +1.57%) were the top sectors for another day. The three growth sectors were the only sectors to decline today. Communications (XLC -0.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.73%) fell the most. France, Germany, Great Britain, and the Euro Zone all reported surprisingly strong economic data today. All these countries reported higher than expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. They halted the climb of the US Dollar Index (which measures the US dollar against a basket of other foreign currencies). US Manufacturing PMI was 59.1, higher than the expected 59.0. US Services PMI was lower than expected, coming in at 57.0 against an expectation of 59.0. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -0.01%. The rose over the past few weeks to its highest point since July 2020. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields rose for the day. Mid-term yields are rising faster than long-term yields. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continue to fall. Silver and Gold prices fell another -2.16% and -0.86%. Crude Oil Futures moved higher despite the US coordinating a release of strategic oil reserves to combat higher gasoline prices. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.603. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is in the Greed zone but creeping toward neutral. Two of the four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) rose +0.24%. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.21%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.63%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.36% and was the only of the four to close below its 21d EMA. Abbvie (ABBV) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +2.79%. The remaining top 10 mega-caps were all in the Financial services and Energy sectors. Tesla (TSLA) was the worst-performing mega-cap for the day, declining -4.14%. Just seven stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day. SNAP (SNAP) was the top stock in the list, gaining +2.86% today. Zoom Video (ZM) landed at the bottom of the growth list, declining -14.71% today after their earnings call revealed slowing revenue growth. Analysts adjusted price targets down. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow brings a busy morning for economic data. The releases include GDP for Q3, Durable Goods Orders, and New Home Sales for October, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. After the market opens, all eyes will turn to the PCE Price Index data for October, a key inflation indicator. Crude Oil Inventories data will be available later in the morning. Earnings reports for Wednesday include Deere $ Company (DE), Trip.com (TCOM), and Futu (FUTU). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dipped below the 21d EMA but then rallied into close, finishing above the key moving average line. Support formed around 15,600, the same area the index dropped to on November 10. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, that would mean a +1.41% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.13% gain for tomorrow. If the one-day trend line continues, the index will decline -1.01% tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Treasury Yields rise, and the US Dollar remains strong compared to other world currencies. Both these factors put downward pressure on valuations for multinationals, big tech, and growth stocks. Inflation data tomorrow could ease fears or pour more fuel on the fire that’s burning. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/22Summary: After setting new record highs in two indexes, markets sold off quickly, ending the day with losses after President Biden decided to give Jerome Powell another term as the Fed Chairman. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 22, 2021 Facts: -1.26%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 74% Red Good: New all-time high Bad: Could not hold high from morning, dropped below 16,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Large red body with long upper wick, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.4, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.32%), DJI (+0.05%), RUT (-0.50%), VIX (+7.04%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.77%) and Financials (XLF +1.41%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.11%) and Communications (XLC -1.22%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After setting new record highs in two indexes, markets sold off quickly, ending the day with losses after President Biden decided to give Jerome Powell another term as the Fed Chairman. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.26% decline. The index gained nearly 1% in the morning before fading from intraday highs. That created a long upper wick. The index continued to dip below the 16,000 support area, forming a thick 74% red body below the long upper wick. The closing range is 1%, as the index continued to sell off into the close. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Volume was higher, creating a distribution day for the index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was the only index to gain for the day, although it only advanced +0.05%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.32%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.50% for the day, even though it led major indexes in the morning rally. In a reversal from Friday, Energy (XLE +1.77%) and Financials (XLF +1.41%) were the top sectors of the day. Technology (XLK -1.11%) and Communications (XLC -1.22%) were at the bottom. Big tech mega-caps brought down both sectors. Existing Home Sales for October came in higher than expected, counting 6.34 million vs. the expectation of 6.20 million. That helped indexes rally in the morning on positive sentiment for the economy. However, once Biden confirmed his selection of Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman, investors needed to price in the expectation that Powell would raise interest rates earlier than otherwise thought. The US Dollar index (DXY) advanced +0.45% for the day. US 30y and 10y yields rose, but not nearly as much as the 2y yield, which rose +15.46%. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and gold prices dropped sharply. The put/call ratio declined to 0.593. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is still in Greed but moving closer to neutral. Apple (AAPL) was the only of the four largest mega-caps to gain for the day, advancing +0.29% but ending the day far below the morning +3.21% rally. Microsoft (MSFT) set a new all-time high in the morning but couldn't hold on, declining -0.96% by the end of the day. Amazon (AMZN) dropped -2.83%, while Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.76%. Wells Fargo (WFC) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.11%. At the bottom of the list was Shopify (SHOP), declining -5.65% and just barely staying above 200b market cap to stay in the mega-cap list. Only five stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained for the day, led by NIO (NIO), which gained +7.32%. At the bottom of the list was Niu Technologies (NIU), losing -16.83% after disappointing earnings. CloudFlare (NET) fell -11.65% today, after gaining more than 90% during October and November. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be available as the market opens on Tuesday. Autodesk (ADSK), VMWare (VMW), Dell Tech (DELL), Xpeng (XPEV), HP Inc (HPQ), Best By (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), GameStop (GME), Burlington (BUTL), Gap (GPS), and Nordstrom (JWN) are some of the earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new all-time this morning before dipping back below the 16,000 area. The index then climbed back above the 16,000 level before diving below it in the last 90 minutes of trading. If the index returns to the trend line from the 11/10 low, expect a +1.83% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a +1.48% gain. If the one-day trend continues, that will result in a -1.07% decline for Tuesday and a test of the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up On one side, investors are relieved that they know what to expect with Jerome Powell. On the other hand, the alternative of Lael Brainard would have come with some unpredictability, but most thought she would extend out easy monetary policy for longer than Powell. The decision was made, and markets sold-off today in the initial reaction. It will likely take a few days to shake out the bets that need to be reversed. Given the thick red candle for the Nasdaq today, the expectation is for Lower for Tuesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Was this the final hurrah? Sell US EQTYFollowing on from the last post on here, (links below) RUT, broke the range I mentioned 2150/2350 indicating the bull still held. I said clues of how the RUT behaves at the range highs would be an indication of overall market strength We are now there. RUT broke highs- but HAS NOW FAILED to be convincing - (by closing back inside the range) Even if you don't pay attention to volume (you should!), that chart pattern is the epitome of trading. Add it to knowing when there is "lopsided positioning" you have a trading methodology . Positioning data freely published is COT data, and it has "Asset Managers" as excessively long here, ie "Smart money managers" are heavily positioned to one side (long) => so, any down moves, and they will be puking their positions and adding to downside movement... (you get paid when other people are stopping out, panickedly hitting "Market Orders to close", forcing price in the direction you want) Along with all the "market internals" I have banged on about before - all deteriorating....well.... it's all similar to when i last posted an idea with the same title
TVC:RUTShort
by Joy_
3
Daily Market Update for 11/19Summary: Nasdaq topped 16,000 for the first time, helped higher by big tech this week. There was caution in the market as investors looked for safe havens and exiting industrials such as travel and energy stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 19, 2021 Facts: +0.40%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 42% (w/gap), Body: 15% Green Good: New all-time high, higher low Bad: Lower volume, fade from intraday high, low advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up, long upper wick above a thin green body, Advance/Decline: Indexes: SPX (-0.14%), DJI (-0.75%), RUT (-0.86%), VIX (+1.82%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +0.73%) and Utilities (XLU +0.57%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.09%) and Energy (XLE -3.90%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Nasdaq topped 16,000 for the first time, helped higher by big tech this week. There was caution in the market as investors looked for safe havens and exiting industrials such as travel and energy stocks. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.4% gain on lower volume than the previous day. The index opened with a gap up in the morning, followed by a rally that took it to a +0.80% intraday gain. The intraday high did not hold, creating a long upper wick and bringing the index back down to close nearly where it opened. The 42% closing range, including the gap, is above the level we want to see, but the candle shows indecision among investors. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The other major indexes closed lower for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.14%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.75%. Small-caps performed the worst, bringing the Russell 2000 (RUT) down -0.86%. The VIX Volatility index rose +1.82%. Only three sectors gained for the day. The top three included growth sectors Technology (XLK +0.73%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.43%), thanks primarily to big tech rising on positive earnings reports and lowering Treasury yields. However, Utilities (XLU +0.57%) took the second spot in the sector list, showing investors were looking for a defensive play, potentially against rising COVID cases in Europe. Financials (XLF -1.09%) and Energy (XLE -3.90%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Financials was brought down by lower Treasury Yields, while Energy closed lower on impact to travel from new pandemic lockdowns in Europe. The US Dollar climbed sharply after Fed's Christopher Walter commented that the government should taper earlier to tighten monetary policy. The index (DXY) gained +0.57% for the day, causing the drawdown in big tech stocks in the afternoon. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields dropped for the day, while 2y yields rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Gold and Silver prices pulled back on the strengthening dollar. Crude Oil Futures moved sharply lower, while Copper and Aluminum Futures are on the rise again. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.606. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Greed level from Extreme Greed the past week. The NAAIM money manager exposure index fell to 102.54 but is in its fourth week above 100. Apple (AAPL) rose another +1.70%, outperforming the other three largest mega-caps. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.54%. Both Apple and Microsoft had record-high closes. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.53%, while Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.61%. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list for a second day, gaining +4.14%. Tesla (TSLA) was the second-best mega-cap for the day, advancing +3.71%. Exxon Mobil was at the bottom of the list, with a -4.62% decline today. Enphase (ENPH) gained +5.21%, topping the Daily Update Growth List. The list has more losers than winners today, and Okta (OKTA) was at the bottom of the list, declining -8.97% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The short holiday week will start with Existing Home Sales data on Monday morning. Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and markets will close at 13:00 on Friday. Zoom Video (XM), Agilent Technologies (A), Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR), and Niu Tech (NIU) will report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq broke through resistance at 16,000 and set a new all-time high before closing in the lower half of its intraday range. If the trend line from the 11/10 low continues, that ends about the same point as the five-day trend line, a +0.44% gain for Monday. The one-day trend line points to a -0.05% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq gained +1.24% this week, the sixth weekly gain in the last seven weeks. The Nasdaq looks strong as it sets new all-time highs and record closes. However, there is some underlying weakness as the advance/decline ratio remains low. The number of Nasdaq stocks above their 50d moving average and 200d moving average is moving lower as the index moves higher, a bearish divergence. Looking at the long upper wick in an indecisive candle, the expectation for Monday is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/18Summary: Big tech mega-caps led the Nasdaq and growth sectors higher while seemingly leaving the rest of the market behind. The Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000 declined. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 18, 2021 Facts: +0.45%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 89%, Body: 13% Green Good: High closing range, high volume gain Bad: Lower low, advance/decline line low Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, long lower wick under a thin green body Advance/Decline: 0.3, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.34%), DJI (-0.17%), RUT (-0.56%), VIX (+2.81%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.13%) and Technology (XLK +1.00%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.59%) and Communications (XLC -0.72%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech mega-caps led the Nasdaq and growth sectors higher while seemingly leaving the rest of the market behind. The Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000 declined. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.45%. The index dipped in the morning but recovered to close higher, leaving a long lower wick underneath a thin green body. The body covers only 13% of the candle. The closing range of 89% is excellent, and the gain comes with higher volume. However, most of that volume seems to be from sellers who sent three stocks lower for every stock that gained. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the only other major index to climb higher, rising +0.34%, also carried by the large mega-caps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.17%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.56%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +2.81%. Only three sectors gained for the day, with the third just barely hanging on to positive territory. The top two sectors were Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.13%) and Technology (XLK +1.00%). Energy (XLE -0.59%) and Communications (XLC -0.72%) were at the bottom. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 268,000 compared to an expected 260,000. That is still better than the previous week of 269,000 but is still a head-scratcher given recent employment data and reports of labor shortages. The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index gave a similar surprise to the NY Empire State index, coming in at 39 compared to the expectation of 24. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped -0.30% for the day. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields fell while the 2y yield rose slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined, but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold remain near recent high levels. Timber is in a steady climb over the past week, but Copper and Aluminum Futures remain well below recent high levels. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is at 0.529. The CNN Fear & Greed index is right at the line between Greed and Extreme Greed. The NAAIM money manager exposure index fell to 102.54 but is in its fourth week above 100. All four of the largest mega-caps gained for the day. Amazon (AMZN) climbed +4.14% as analysts predict it will be a top stock in 2021. Apple (AAPL) soared to a new record close with a +2.85% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) also had record closes with +0.63% and +1.21% gains. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed +8.25% after smashing earnings expectations. That also helped Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) gain +3.64% to end the day in the third position in the mega-cap list. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the list with a -11.13% decline. The company lowered guidance amid a drop in earnings due to China's crackdown on big tech. Following Nvidia, JD.com (JD) was the next best stock in the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +5.95% today. Only ten stocks in the list gained for the day, and the other ~30 declined. Robinhood (HOOD) joined Alibaba at the bottom of the list with a -11.13% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Friday. Two Fed officials (Waller and Clarida) speak in the afternoon. Investors await a decision from Joe Biden on whom he will nominate for the next Fed Chair. Analysts expect a swift reaction from the market depending on the choice. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance After dipping in the morning, the Nasdaq climbed back to the 16,000 resistance area, closing the day just below that level. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, expect a +1.51% advance for Friday. The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a +0.34% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Nvidia's huge earnings beat helped drive big tech higher as the outlook for cloud computing looks bright. The largest mega-caps moved higher, but the sentiment wasn't shared across the entire market. Most stocks moved lower for the day as we await a decision from Joe Biden on his Fed Chair pick. Analysts expect a reaction in the Market if Fed picks Brainard. They expect that Brainard will extend easy money policies beyond what Powell has signaled in recent months. The expectation for Friday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/16Summary: Retail sales data helped send growth stocks higher on Tuesday. Earnings reports by big retailers came together with the data, creating an overall surprise on how much consumers are spending despite inflation concerns. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 16, 2021 Facts: +0.76%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 90%, Body: 81% Green Good: Thick green body, consistent climb throughout day, higher volume Bad: Resistance at 16,000, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Most green body, equal small upper and lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.59, more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.39%), DJI (+0.15%), RUT (+0.17%), VIX (-0.73%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.58%) and Technology (XLK +1.05%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.63%) and Communications (XLC -0.75%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Retail sales data helped send growth stocks higher on Tuesday. Earnings reports by big retailers came together with the data, creating an overall surprise on how much consumers are spending despite inflation concerns. The Nasdaq rose +0.76% for the day. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has an 81% green body and a 90% closing range. The equal length upper and lower wicks are short. The gains were concentrated to big tech and specific sectors, leaving three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.39%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +0.15%. Small-caps didn't benefit as much from the positive economic data, rising only +0.17% today. The VIX Volatility index declined -0.73%. Only five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors rose for the day. Growth sectors Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.58%) and Technology (XLK +1.05%) were at the top of the sector list. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.63%) and Communications (XLC -0.75%) were at the bottom. Core Retail Sales, which excludes automobiles, grew 1.7% in October compared to an expectation of 1% growth. Retail Sales, including automobiles, rose 1.7% compared to an expectation of 1.2%. Industrial Production also climbed more than expected in October, with a 1.6% gain in production compared to the expectation of 0.7%. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in after the market closed and showed higher demand than anticipated. The US Dollar continues to strengthen, with the index (DXY) climbing +0.41% today. The index is at its highest level since July 2020. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose for another day while the 2y yield remained flat. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose while Investment Grade (LQD) Bond prices fell. The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.531. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Extreme Greed area. Two of the four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.67% and 1.02%. Microsoft had its highest close on record. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.14% and -0.39%. Qualcomm (QCOM) soared to the top of the mega-cap list with a +7.89% gain after telling investors that it could grow without Apple. Home Depot (HD) was the second-best mega-cap with a +5.73% after beating earnings expectations. Walmart (WMT) also exceeded earnings expectations but lost -2.55% for the day, ending at the bottom of the list. Investors were concerned about tightening profit margins and comparative store sales growth. Peloton (PTON) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +15.50% gain after announcing a stock sale to raise capital. GrowGeneration (GRWG) was at the bottom of the growth list with a -8.05% decline today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data for October comes in the morning before the market opens. After the market opens, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be available. Three Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the day. Nvidia (NVDA), Cisco (CSCO), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Baidu (BIDU), Li Auto (LI), and Bath Body Works (BBWI) report earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose steadily throughout the day on Tuesday but met resistance at 16,000. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 bottom, it would be a +1.29% gain tomorrow. The one-day trend line would result in a +0.92% gain. The five-day trend line points to a +0.10% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Retail sales data was just the positive surprise investors needed to boost favorite big tech stocks today. However, it also boosted the strength of the US Dollar and long-term Treasury yields that drive interest rates. These both typically cause downward pressure on valuations for big tech and multinationals. So what to expect for the rest of the week? The exuberance over the Retail Sales data will be hard to beat, and it opposes the concern investors had over inflation and consumer sentiment data last week. Given the strengthening US Dollar and higher Treasury yields, we may see some rotation into small-caps to absorb any additional bullish sentiment from investors. Based on the chart, the expectation is for sideways or higher tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/15Summary: The strengthening US Dollar and rising treasury yields put a damper on Friday's rally in big tech. Investors moved into defensive and cyclical sectors as Biden put his signature to the Infrastructure Bill on Monday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 15, 2021 Facts: -0.04%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 54%, Body: 29% Red Good: Higher high, higher low, longer lower wick Bad: Low advance/decline, could hold morning rally Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Longer lower wick, small body in top of candle Advance/Decline: 0.65, three declining stocks for every two advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.00%), DJI (-0.04%), RUT (-0.45%), VIX (+1.23%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.32%) and Energy (XLE +0.83%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.46%) and Health (XLV -0.62%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The strengthening US Dollar and rising treasury yields put a damper on Friday's rally in big tech. Investors moved into defensive and cyclical sectors as Biden put his signature to the Infrastructure Bill on Monday. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.04% decline, a nearly flat move for the day. The index rallied in the morning but then dipped to an intraday low before regaining ground in the late afternoon. The candle has a 29% red body in the upper half with a long lower wick underneath a 54% closing range. We did get a higher high and higher low for the day. Volume was less than on Friday, and three stocks declined for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed flat with no gain or loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.04%. Small-caps underperformed for the day, sending the Russell 2000 (RUT) down by -0.45%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +1.23%. Only four of the eleven S&P 500 sectors declined for the day. Utilities (XLU +1.32%) and Energy (XLE +0.83%) were at the top of the list. Materials (XLB -0.46%) and Health (XLV -0.62%) were the worst-performing sectors. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index showed a surprising pick-up in activity. The index came in at 30.9 compared to an expectation of 21.6. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY) rising +0.42% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose for the day, with the gap widening between long-term and short-term yields. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Silver and Gold paused after climbing substantially from the beginning of November. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.514. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained at the Extreme Greed level. The four largest mega-caps had mixed results for the day. Amazon (AMZN) was up nearly 2% in the morning but faded to end the day with a +0.58% gain. Apple (AAPL) opened the day with a gain but couldn't hold on and ended with only a +0.01% advance. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.19% and -0.15%. All four daily charts look good. Chevron (CVX) was the top mega-cap for the day, and PayPal (PYPL) was second. Both gained over 2%. Tesla (TSLA) was the worst-performing stock for today, with a -1.94% decline. There were many gainers in the Daily Update Growth List, but there were more losers. At the top of the list was FUTU Holdings (FUTU), as the Chinese Fintech stock gained +5.44%. CrowdStrike (NET) was at the bottom of the growth list after Morgan Stanley declared the stock too expensive, sending the price down -10.60%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data will be available at 8:30a tomorrow. Analysts have expected an increase in Retail Sales for October over the previous month. In addition to Retail Sales, we'll also get updates on Export/Import prices and Industrial Production for October. Two Fed chairs (Bostic and Daly) speak tomorrow. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock comes out after the market close. Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and Sea (SE) are three big retail stocks reporting earnings tomorrow alongside the Retail Sales data. Together, the earnings reports and economic data will provide a clear picture for investors as we head into the holiday season. In addition to those big three, StoneCo (STNE), Lithium Americas (LAC), La-Z-Boy (LZB) are some other interesting earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq didn't move much today, even considering the mid-day dip. The index didn't test any major support or resistance areas. If the index returns to the trend-line from the 10/4 low, it would mean a +1.84% advance for tomorrow. The one-day and five-day trend lines both point to a -0.40% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There wasn't much to watch in the market today. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average were all flat for the day. Volatility (according to VIX) did not pick up much. Overall, investors made some minor rotations based on higher yields, but they did not disturb much ahead of the Retail Sales and Building Permits data that will come later this week. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Retail Sales data and earnings reports from large Retailers could be the catalyst for a move higher or lower in the indexes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/12Summary: Investors brushed off fears of inflation and sent indexes higher, led by big tech and growth sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 12, 2021 Facts: +1.00%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 92%, Body: 64% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, higher high, higher low Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick green body, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.97, about equal advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.72%), DJI (+0.50%), RUT (+0.11%), VIX (-7.76%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +1.46%) and Technology (XLK +1.22%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.06%) and Energy (XLE -0.24%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors brushed off fears of inflation and sent indexes higher, led by big tech and growth sectors. The Nasdaq closed 1% higher on higher volume, signaling the investor hopes for a bounce after dipping this week. The candle has a 64% green body and a longer lower wick, formed right after the market open. There is a tiny upper wick above a 92% closing range. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX), boosted by the growth sectors, rose +0.72% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.50%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rose just +0.11% as small-caps trailed big tech in performance. The VIX Volatility Index declined -7.76%. Communications (XLC +1.46%) and Technology (XLK +1.22%) far outperformed the other S&P 500 sectors for the day. At the bottom of the list, utilities (XLU -0.06%) and Energy (XLE -0.24%) were the only sectors to decline. JOLTs Job Openings came in at 10.438 million against the expectation for 10.3 million. The higher number of openings shows the struggle companies have in hiring workers who are voluntarily leaving jobs in record numbers. Michigan Consumer Sentiment was at 66.8 compared to an expected 72.4. Consumer Expectations was 62.8 against the expectation of 70.0. The market didn't seem surprised by the lower numbers and may have been ready for the bad news given inflation data that came earlier in the week. The US Dollar weakened slightly, with the index (DXY) declining -0.03%. The US 30y Treasury Yield rose while the 10y and 2y yields fell. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices advanced while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and Gold prices continued to rise as an investor hedge against inflation. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.526. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Extreme Greed. The NAAIM money manager exposure index remained above 100, coming in at 103.69 this week. The index remained elevated in November 2020 as well. The four largest mega-caps all gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) rose above its 21d EMA, closing with a +1.43% gain. All four stocks are now above their key moving averages. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest gain, increasing +2.00%. Shopify (SHOP) entered the mega-cap list with a +12.02% gain today. The stock soared on seemingly no news. The company did report great earnings a few weeks ago, and there is commentary in the press that consumers are getting holiday shopping done early and seeking deals online to avoid inflation prices. Tesla was the worst-performing mega-cap of the day, declining -2.83%. The Daily Update Growth List was full of gainers today. DoorDash (DASH) topped the list with a +8.16%. The delivery company is up nearly 30% since its earnings release earlier in the week. Lemonade (LMND) was at the bottom of the growth list with a -2.87% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for November will be available on Monday. Lucid (LCID), Tyson Foods (TSN), Warner Music (WMG), and Porch Group (PRCH) are a few of the earnings reports to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq is working its way back toward last week's record high. If the index can return to the trend line from the 10/4 low, it will mean a +1.65% gain for Monday. If the one-day trend continues into Monday, it would mean a +0.90% advance. The five-day trend line points to a -1.33% gain for the first day of next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's not clear what changed investors' outlook toward inflation. It could be that there wasn't much worry about the data released earlier in the week and that the indexes just needed to pull back after a strong rally. However, today's gain takes the index to a 0.6 retracement level that could turn to resistance and send it lower. Looking at the weekly chart for the Nasdaq, we have an inside week signaling a fight between bulls and bears. The expectation for Monday is for Sideways or Higher. The current bull rally is intact, but I'll be more confident when we break back above the 16,000 level. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 11/11Summary: Trading was muted on Veteran's day as markets had lower than average volume. Nvidia led chipmakers higher while industrials weighed down the Dow Jones. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 11, 2021 Facts: +0.52%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 12%, Body: 66% Red Good: Higher low, higher close Bad: Lower volume on gain, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, mostly red body Advance/Decline: 0.62, three declining for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.06%), DJI (-0.44%), RUT (+0.82%), VIX (-5.71%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +0.80%) and Technology (XLK +0.47%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -0.41%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Trading was muted on Veteran's day as markets had lower than average volume. Nvidia led chipmakers higher while industrials weighed down the Dow Jones. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.52% gain, helped by the Technology sector. Volume was well-below average for the day. The index had an inside day, marked by a lower high and higher low. The candle is short but almost entirely red body as the rally in the morning faded throughout the rest of the day. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) led the day. The index closed with a +0.82% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed flat with a small +0.06% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.44%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -5.71%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Materials (XLB +0.80%) and Technology (XLK +0.47%) were at the top of the sector list. Industrials (XLI -0.41%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) were at the bottom. The US Dollar continues to strengthen. The index (DXY) climbed by +0.30% today. US Treasury markets were closed for Veteran's Day. Gold and Silver continue to gain. Gold gained +0.70% while Silver rose +2.49%. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum and gained for the day. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.583. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains in Extreme Fear but is declining a bit. The NAAIM money manager exposure index remained above 100, coming in at 103.69 this week. The index remained elevated in November 2020 as well. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) gained for the day, advancing +0.49%. Microsoft has the healthiest chart of the four. Apple (AAPL) remained below its 21d EMA but above its 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are still above both key moving averages. Nvidia (NVDA) was the top mega-cap for the day, advancing +3.16% today. Walt Disney (DIS) dropped -7.07%, ending the day at the bottom of the mega-cap list after missing estimates for both revenue and earnings. The Daily Update Growth List was about 50% gainers for the day. JD.com was the top stock in the list, gaining +8.31%. It was followed by Enphase (ENPH), which climbed by +8.21%. At the bottom of the list was Beyond Meat (BYND). The stock slumped -13.28% as analysts cut targets after the company lowered guidance for the year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The JOLTs Job Openings data will be in view tomorrow after the market opens. We will also get Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations data in the morning. AstraZeneca (AZN) will report earnings Friday morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied at the market open but faded the rest of the day. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, it would mean a +2.51% gain for Friday. That does not seem likely, and I'll retire that trend line depending on Friday's result. If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, it would mean a -0.12% decline. The five-day trend line, which now stretches from the all-time high, points to a -0.74% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was not much to look at in today's market as volume was lower due to the holiday. Given the inflation data this week, analysts will be looking at the impact on consumer sentiment and expectations data that comes tomorrow. If the data shows consumers brushing off the most recent month of inflation, that can soften the worries of long-lasting inflation. The expectation for Friday is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/10Summary: Inflation data caused selling in bond and equity markets while investors kept an eye on a possible default from China's Evergrande. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 10, 2021 Facts: -1.66%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 24%, Body: 41% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Large red body, low closing range, very low a/d ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Larger upper wick than lower wick, surrounding a thick red body Advance/Decline: 0.31, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.82%), DJI (-0.66%), RUT (-1.55%), VIX (+5.34%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.81%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.30%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.65%) and Energy (XLE -2.64%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Inflation data caused selling in bond and equity markets while investors kept an eye on a possible default from China's Evergrande. The Nasdaq finished the day with a -1.66% decline, the worst day in over a month. The candle has a large red body below an upper wick that is longer than the lower wick, and the closing range is only 24%. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock. Still, volume was lower than the previous day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also had a significant decline, losing -1.55% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.82%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.66%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) climbed another +5.34%. The defensive sectors, Utilities (XLU +0.81%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.30%) were at the top of the sector list. Health (XLV +0.29%) was the only other sector to gain for the day. Technology (XLK -1.65%) and Energy (XLE -2.64%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The October Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.6% month-over-month, against the forecast of 0.4%. The index rose 4.6% year-over-year, while the expected growth was 4.3%. Initial Jobless Claims was lower than the previous week but slightly higher than the forecast. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY) rising +0.94% to its highest level since July 2020. US 20y, 10y, and 2y yields all rose sharply on the inflation news. The 2y yield is at its highest level since the pandemic began. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bonds both declined. Gold, an inflation hedge, grew another +0.94%, which is impressive considering the US Dollar strengthened by the same amount. Timber and Copper both declined for the day, while Aluminum gets some support after several weeks of declines. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.651. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved closer to the Greed range but remained at the Extreme Greed level. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) closed below its 21d EMA but remained above its 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) got support at its 21d EMA despite declining -2.03% for the day. Amazon (AMZN) fell -2.63% after several days of gains. Tesla (TSLA) was the top mega-cap for the day, helped by investors buying the dip after yesterday's massive decline. The stock is up +4.34% for today. Mastercard (MA) and Pfizer (PFE) also did well today, both gaining more than 3.5%. Nvidia (NVDA) declined -3.91% today, ending up at the bottom of the mega-cap list. DoorDash (DASH) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +11.58% after proposing an acquisition of Wolt Delivery for $8 billion. Most stocks in the Growth List declined for the day. Palantir (PLTR) was the worst-performing stock on the list, dropping -7.13% as analysts downgraded the stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The OPEC Monthly Report comes in the morning on Thursday. Otherwise, the only interesting news will be out of Europe as GDP data for the UK and an economic forecast for the European Union become available overnight. Merck (MKKGY), Celsius (CELH), Dillards (DDS), Nordstrom (JWN), GrowGeneration (GRWG), Lordstown Motors (RIDE) are some of the notable earnings reports for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped sharply today but remains above the 21d EMA, and the 21d EMA is above the 15,400 support area. If the index returns to its trend-line from the 10/4 low, it would mean a +2.95% gain for Thursday. That seems unlikely. The five-day trend line is in decline, but returning to the trend line would mean a +0.68% gain for the index. If the one-day trend line continues, that would mean another -2.09% decline for tomorrow. That would require breaking through 21d EMA support and the 15,400 support area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The inflation data is causing turmoil in both equity and bond markets. However, we did expect some pullback this week, and we are only down -2.18%. There is another percentage point to go down before hitting the 21d EMA. Keep in mind that the weekly chart is still in an uptrend despite the red candle. The expectation for tomorrow is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/9Summary: Producer Price Index data confirmed fears of continued high inflation for the month of October. We already expected indexes to pull back after a long streak of daily gains, but the inflation worries helped solidify the trend reversal. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 9, 2021 Facts: -0.60%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 25%, Body: 69% Red Good: Lower volume on pullback Bad: Lower high, lower low, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Bearish engulfing body marks trend reversal Advance/Decline: 0.47, more than two declining for every Indexes: SPX (-0.35%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (-0.63%), VIX (+3.25%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Materials (XLB +0.46%) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.55%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.85%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Producer Price Index data confirmed fears of continued high inflation for the month of October. We already expected indexes to pull back after a long streak of daily gains, but the inflation worries helped solidify the trend reversal. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.60% decline for the day. The red body engulfs the bodies of the previous two thin bodies in indecisive candles. The bearish engulfing body confirms the reversal in an uptrend. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The good news is that volume was lower than the previous day, signaling less conviction by sellers. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.35%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.31%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.63%. The VIX Volatility Index continues to rise, advancing +3.25% today. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Materials (XLB +0.46%) were the top sectors for the day as a mix of defensive and cyclical sectors moved higher. Financials (XLF -0.55%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.85%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The Core Producer Price Index (PPI), which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.4% month-over-month for October. That was higher than the 0.2% growth for September but lower than the forecast by analysts of 0.5%. The total PPI was 0.6% month-over-month, which matched the forecast. A 10-year treasury note auction showed lower demand than usual as investors worried about longer-term inflation. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was at -2.9 million barrels vs. the forecast of +1.9 m barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped -0.08% for the day. The US 30y Treasury Yield dropped for another day, approaching its year-to-date lows. The US 10y and 2y yields also declined for the day. High inflation data would typically push yields higher, but the fact that yields dropped is something to note and could signal bond investors confidence in the Fed controlling inflation in the longer term. It could also just be some hope that the Consumer Price Index data will positively surprise investors tomorrow. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day. Gold, a common hedge against inflation, is at its highest point since the middle of June. Crude Oil Futures moved higher based on higher demand. Aluminum Futures continue to fall. The metal is critical to many parts of the supply chain, and so it is significant to see prices fall so far from record highs in October. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.551. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Extreme Greed range. Amazon (AMZN) continues to rally back to health with a +2.50% gain today. The stock has climbed 8% in the last five days since closing below its 200d moving average. The chart has nearly filled the gap created on July 30. Apple (AAPL) also advanced today, climbing by +0.25%. The other two of the four largest mega-caps declined, with Microsoft (MSFT) losing -0.21% and Alphabet (GOOGL) falling -0.08%. Amazon topped the mega-cap list, followed by Nike (NKE). Nike gained +1.15%. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list, falling -11.99% today as investors continue to react to Elon Musk's tweet over the weekend that signaled he might sell $21 billion worth of his position. PayPal (PYPL) disappointed investors with their guidance during an earnings call, sending the stock lower by -10.46%. Zynga (ZNG) and DR Horton (DHI) smashed investor expectations with their earnings, marching +9.44% and +5.18% higher. They topped the Daily Update Growth List. Joining PayPal and Tesla at the bottom of the growth list was Lemonade (LMND). Despite solid earnings, Lemonade declined -10.72% after making investors nervous with guidance and some key business metrics. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The focus will be on October's Consumer Price Index data, released before the market opens on Wednesday. The CPI data will show how much produce price inflation passed along to consumers. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will also be available. After the market opens, Crude Oil Inventories will be available. Walt Disney (DIS), Opendoor (OPEN), Bumble (BMBL), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Wendy's (WEN) are a few of the earnings reports scheduled for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq declined for the first time in 12 sessions. The index extended more than 6% above its 50-day moving average before pulling back. If the one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, it would mean a -0.58% decline. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 10/4 low point to a +1.10% gain for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's easy to look at today's decline as a reaction to inflation fears. However, indexes were extended after many consecutive days of gains and needed to pause or decline to let moving averages catch up. Good or bad surprises in Consumer Price Index data in the morning will undoubtedly impact investor sentiment. Equity markets will react in the short term, but look for what happens in the bond market for what big investors believe about whether inflation is sticky or transitory. Based on the bearish engulfing candle signaling a trend reversal, the expectation for tomorrow is for Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 11/8Summary: The materials sector led stocks higher after the House passed a massive Infrastructure Bill late Friday night. Tesla weighed down the major indexes thanks to new tweets from Elon Musk over the weekend. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 8, 2021 Facts: +0.07%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 27%, Body: 17% Red Good: Higher low for the day, higher volume Bad: Couldn't hold high above 16,000 Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, indecisive candle with thing red body Advance/Decline: 0.86, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.09%), DJI (+0.29%), RUT (+0.23%), VIX (+4.49%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +1.25%) and Energy (XLE +0.91%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.42%) and Utilities (XLU -1.49%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The materials sector led stocks higher after the House passed a massive Infrastructure Bill late Friday night. Tesla weighed down the major indexes thanks to new tweets from Elon Musk over the weekend. The Nasdaq finished the day slightly higher with a +0.07% gain. Volume was higher than Friday. The candle represents an inside day where the high is lower than the previous high, and the low is higher than the previous low. The candle on Friday already showed indecision among investors, and the small 17% red body today signals more uncertainty with a leaning toward bearish with the 27% closing range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was the best performing major index, hitting another all-time high and record close after a +0.29% gain for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) held onto a +0.23% advance, but that was down from a +0.89% rally in the morning. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose just +0.09% for the day. The VIX Volatility Index was up +4.49%. Materials (XLB +1.25%) and Energy (XLE +0.91%) were the top sectors for the day, benefiting from the infrastructure bill. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.42%) and Utilities (XLU -1.49%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Tesla weighed down the Consumer Discretionary sector. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -0.17%. The US 30y Treasury yield fell while the 10y and 2y yields rose. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined for the day. Commodity futures, including Timber, Copper, and Aluminum, did not move much on the Infrastructure Bill news. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.463, the lowest level since June. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved further into Extreme Fear. Despite a news narrative over the weekend about investors diversifying away from big tech, the largest four mega-caps did not sell off. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) declined today but are still forming a base after recent rallies. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) held onto gains for the day. Nvidia (NVDA) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.54%. Tesla (TSLA) dropped to the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -4.84% after CEO Elon Musk signaled in a Twitter poll that he might sell 10% of his holdings, worth about $20 billion dollars. GrowGeneration (GRWG) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +14.90% today. CloudFlare (NET) was the next best, climbing +6.46%. Most stocks in the list gained for the day. Peloton (PTON) was the worst performer, declining another -7.89% after Friday's 35% fall. The stock is down nearly 70% year-to-date. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Producer Price Index data for October will be available before the market opens on Tuesday. Jerome Powell will speak at 9 am. In the afternoon, there will be a 10y note auction. Coinbase (COIN), DoorDash (DASH), BioNTech (BNTX), Palantir (PLTR), Unity (U), DR Horton (DHI), Upstart (UPST), and Plug Power (PLUG) are among the companies releasing earnings reports tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq topped 16,000 again mid-day but could not hold the level, dropping back below the resistance area before close. If the index can break resistance and work back to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +1.36% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line and the trend line from the 10/4 low point to a +0.13% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The infrastructure bill gave a boost to cyclical sectors and small-caps today. The rotation did not impact the growth sectors as much as expected (removing the impact of Tesla on Consumer Discretionary). There may still be some pressure on those sectors as investors continue placing bets on the deployment of $1 trillion in the Infrastructure Bill. The indecisive candle on Friday and the inside day today indicate a top for now. That doesn't mean a considerable correction is needed, but some pause or pullback for the Nasdaq is due. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/5Summary: Positive employment data sent stocks higher in the morning. The rally faded mid-day, but indexes held on to new record closes. The employment report is especially favorable for small-caps that outperformed today. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 5, 2021 Facts: +0.20%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 46%, Body: 21% Red Good: Uptrend intact, higher advance/decline line Bad: Couldn't hold above 16,000, thin red body in middle of candle Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thin red body in center of candle, indecision Advance/Decline: 0.85, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.37%), DJI (+0.56%), RUT (+1.44%), VIX (+6.74%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.30%) and Industrials (XLI +1.02%) at the top. Financials (XLF +0.05%) and Health (XLV -1.12%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive employment data sent stocks higher in the morning. The rally faded mid-day, but indexes held on to new record closes. The employment report is especially favorable for small-caps that outperformed today. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.20% gain. The index soared past the 16,000 resistance level but dropped below it in the afternoon. A thin red body covering 21% of the candle sits between long upper and lower wicks, signaling some indecision in the market. Volume was higher than the previous day. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +1.44% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.56%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +0.37%. All four indexes had record-high closes. The VIX Volatility Index rose +6.74%, driven by volatility later in the morning to afternoon. Energy (XLE +1.30%) and Industrials (XLI +1.02%) were at the top of the sector list. Energy and travel stocks (in Industrials) both benefited from news from Pfizer that their pill effectively keeps COVID patients out of the hospital. Financials (XLF +0.05%) and Health (XLV -1.12%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Health was the only declining sector for the day. Although Pfizer soared more than 10%, its competitors suffered from the news. Merck and Moderna dropped -9.86% and -16.46%. Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 521,000 additional payrolls for October, blasting past the forecast of 450,000. The Unemployment Rate ticked down to 6.7% compared to 6.9% in September, and a forecast of 6.8%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped -0.12%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y yields fell as investors had an improved outlook for the US economy. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose sharply. Silver and Gold also rose sharply. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.580 after dipping extremely low yesterday. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the same spot in the Extreme Greed area. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 107.99 this week. Three of the four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Amazon (AMZN) climbed for the third day in a row, rising +1.21% today. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) also rose today, gaining +0.21% and +0.39%. Microsoft (MSFT) set another new all-time high but faded to end the day with a -0.11% decline. Pfizer (PFE) was the top mega-cap for the day, soaring +10.86% on their news. Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) were the second and third best mega-caps. Merck (MRK) was the worst-performing mega-cap with a -9.86% decline, finding itself opposite Pfizer news. DataDog (DDOG) was the big winner in the Daily Update Growth List, rising +11.12% on solid earnings growth. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks in the list. The biggest loser was Peloton (PTON) which fell -35.35% on a dismal report to investors and lower guidance of almost 20% less revenue for next year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is no significant economic news scheduled for Monday. PayPal (PYPL), Roblox (RBLX), Trade Desk (TDD), AMC (AMC), Tencent (TME), Trex (TREX), Five9 (FIVN), Zynga (ZNGA), Lemonade (LMND), and Vuzix (VUZI) are some of the earnings reports for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved above 16,000 but then fell back below the resistance area. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +1.18% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 10/4 low leads to a -0.23% decline. If the one-day trend line continues, it would mean a -0.79% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A great jobs report and a new COVID pill was enough to push the indexes higher for another day. That's a full two weeks without a decline for the Nasdaq. Impressive, but it also can't last forever. That could be why investors got skittish after reaching the 16,000 milestone, bringing prices back down a bit. The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/4Summary: Chip stocks led the day as investors focused on big tech and growth. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 continued a record winning streak. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 04, 2021 Facts: +0.81%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 82% (w/gap), Body: 65% Green Good: Continued strong rally with gap up Bad: Resistance at 16,000, low advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up, small upper and lower wicks surround green body Advance/Decline: 0.55, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (-0.09%), RUT (-0.08%), VIX (+2.25%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +1.56%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.35%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.13%) and Financials (XLF -1.31%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Chip stocks led the day as investors focused on big tech and growth. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 continued a record winning streak. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.81% gain. Including the gap at open, the closing range of 82% is over a green body covering 65% of the candle. The upper and lower wicks are about equal in length. Volume was lower than the previous day, and there were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended the day with a +0.42% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.09%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.08%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose +2.25%. Technology (XLK +1.56%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.35%) gained far more than any other sector, topping the sector list for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -1.13%) and Financials (XLF -1.31%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 269,000 for the week compared to the forecast of 275,000. Nonfarm Productivity was lower than expected, and Unit Labor Costs were higher than forecast for Q3. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.51% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for another day. Investment Grade (LWD) Corporate Bond prices also rose. Aluminum futures continue to drop, signaling some easing on demand. The put/call ratio dropped to an overly bullish level of 0.469. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further in the Extreme Greed range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 107.99. The exposure index at this level also signals overly bullish sentiment and rarely stays this high for more than one week. Amazon (AMZN) had another big day, gaining +2.75% today. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +1.14% and +0.73%. Apple (AAPL) was the only of the four largest mega-caps to decline, losing -0.35%. Nvidia (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) were the top mega-caps. Nvidia gained a whopping +12.04%. The semiconductor segment gained on optimism after Qualcomm (QCOM) smashed expectations despite a global chip shortage. Netflix (NFLX) was the worst-performing mega-cap of the day, declining -2.89%. Etsy (ETSY) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +13.21% climb today. After the pandemic, investors were worried about Etsy's growth ability, but the company showed strong growth and beat street estimates for Q3. Penn National Gaming dropped -21.08% and ended up at the bottom of the growth list. The company is suffering from weak earnings and a sexual misconduct accusation against its CEO. Datadog (DDOG) shares soared in after-hours trading after an impressive earnings report. The stock was up 12.91%. Peloton (PTON) was an after-hours loser, disappointing investors and lowering guidance. The stock tumbled 30% in after-hours trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More employment data will be insight tomorrow morning. Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate will be available before the market opens. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa), Honda (HMC), and Johnson Controls (JCI) are some of the earnings reports for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq climbed to another new all-time high but hit resistance just under the round number 16,000. The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a continued rally with a +0.44% gain for Friday. If the index returns to the trend line from the 10/4 low, it would mean a -0.63% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was a clear climb to the 16,000 area that started after the 2p Fed meeting yesterday. Investors seemed to price in the news at just under 16,000 and were satisfied with that level. Watch out for the overly bullish put/call ratio and the high exposure index among money managers. These levels do not last long and often signal a slight pullback on the horizon. Indeed, the Nasdaq looks extended and is due for some sideways or downward moves. There is nothing that says the index will move lower, so the expectation for Friday is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 11/3Summary: The Fed's statements after the two-day Federal Reserve meeting sent the major indexes to new record closes. The expected bond purchase tapering will begin, but the Fed was still firm on inflation being transitory, and they don't see a need yet for interest rate hikes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 3, 2021 Facts: +1.04%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 95%, Body: 75% Green Good: Advance on higher volume, closing range, advance/decline ratio Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Small lower wick under a fat green body Advance/Decline: 1.02, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.65%), DJI (+0.29%), RUT (+1.80%), VIX (-5.80%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.80%) and Materials (XLB +1.04%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.37%) and Energy (XLE -0.83%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed's statements after the two-day Federal Reserve meeting sent the major indexes to new record closes. The expected bond purchase tapering will begin, but the Fed was still firm on inflation being transitory, and they don't see a need yet for interest rate hikes. The Nasdaq rose +1.04%, with most of the gain coming after the Fed issued statements. Volume was higher than the previous day. The closing range of 95% comes above a fat green body, and a small lower wick formed at the opening bell. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. All four indexes had record closes. Small-caps outperformed, sending the Russell 2000 (RUT) up +1.80%, clearly breaking out of its trading range since March. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +0.65%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.29%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -5.92%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.80%) and Materials (XLB +1.04%) led the sector list. Consumer Discretionary is bouncing up and down along with Tesla, whipping around on Elon Musk's tweets. Utilities (XLU -0.37%) and Energy (XLE -0.83%) were at the bottom. The growth sectors all turned to the upside after the 2 pm Fed statements. Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index data, released in the morning, was higher than forecast, showing an uptick in economic activity. The more surprising news was the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Employment growth was forecasted to slow with only 400k newly employed. However, the ADP number came in at 571,000. The US Dollar declined -0.24%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose. Yields on the 30y and 10y rose sharply after the Fed meeting. Tapering will lower prices for Treasury bonds, and yields move opposite of prices. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose while Investment Grade (LQD) prices dropped. Demand will shift to higher yield bonds as interest rates will keep borrowing costs low and make the higher yield junk bonds a safer bet. Crude Oil Futures dropped after inventory data in the morning showed less demand than expected. Timber rose sharply today while Copper and Aluminum futures continue to decline. The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.537. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is moving further into Extreme Greed. The four largest mega-caps all moved higher today. Microsoft (MSFT) had another record close. Amazon (AMZN) rose +2.15% to close back above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. NOVO Nordisk was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +5.05%. The company beat estimates in its earnings release and raised outlook for 2021. Pfizer (PFE) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list as investors took profits from yesterday's gains off of an earnings beat. Most mega-caps gained for the day. The Daily Update Growth List was also dominated by gainers today. Fastly (FSLY) topped the list with a +8.11% as investors bet on the company ahead of earnings. The stock is up another +7.11% after hours as the company beat street expectations. Digital Turbine (APPS) disappointed investors despite exceeding expectations. The stock dropped -19.01% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will be available tomorrow morning. We'll also get an update on Imports and Exports and the Trade Balance for September. Earnings Reports tomorrow include Alibaba (BABA), Toyota (TM ), Moderna (MRNA), Square (SQ), Airbnb (ABNB), Uber (UBER), MercadoLibre (MELI), Cloudflare (NET), Fortinet (FTNT), Datadog (DDOG), Pinterest (PINS, Peloton (PTON), Wayfair (W), and Penn National Gaming (PENN) among many others. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq climbed to another new all-time high today in its eighth consecutive session without a loss. The index is approaching an expected resistance area of 16,000. If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, it would mean a +0.72% gain. A return to the five-day trend line would mean no gain or loss for tomorrow. The trend line from the 10/4 low points to a -0.43% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Fed's mandate from Congress is to ensure maximum employment and control inflation. The purpose of easy money policy and bond purchasing was to get employment back to acceptable levels. Now that employment growth is meeting benchmarks they set earlier in the pandemic, the bond purchase tapering can begin. Now the Fed can turn its attention to inflation, using interest rates to slow down the growth of prices in the economy. Today, Jerome Powell acknowledged that although they see inflation as transitory, people at home and the grocery store might be feeling differently. Still, the factors they see driving inflation are things like supply chain issues that will eventually work themselves out. It won't reverse all inflation, but the Fed's stance is that inflation will turn to an average level without more interest rate hikes. That message perfectly landed with investors who now see a new window of growth for US corporations. They can count on lower interest rates but also know the Fed is closely monitoring inflation. The next wave of worry will be solving the debt ceiling crisis, for which a solution is due by the beginning of December. For tomorrow, the expectation is Sideways. The Nasdaq doesn't seem to be backing down, but it is getting extended with eight positive sessions in a row. At some point, we have to expect a pause or even pullback before moving higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/2Summary: A great earnings season is keeping investors bullish even ahead of an anticipated announcement from the Fed on bond purchase tapering and interest rate hike timing. The result was another day of record-setting in the major indexes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 02, 2021 Facts: +0.34%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 92%, Body: 75% Green Good: Higher high, closing range, mostly green body Bad: Advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Small upper and lower wicks around a 75% green body Advance/Decline: 0.7, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.37%), DJI (+0.39%), RUT (+0.16%), VIX (-2.32%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +1.14%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.67%) and Energy (XLE -0.94%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A great earnings season is keeping investors bullish even ahead of an anticipated announcement from the Fed on bond purchase tapering and interest rate hike timing. The result was another day of record-setting in the major indexes. All four indexes we track closed at record highs. The Nasdaq gained +0.34% for the day. The candle is almost entirely green body as the index rallied in the morning, pulled back a bit, and then rallied again in the late afternoon. The closing range is 92%, and the green body covers 75% of the candle. Volume was lower than the previous day, and there were more declining than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) finally closed above the March high after months of moving up and down within a fixed range. It tapped the top and bottom of the range five times before closing above it today, gaining +0.16%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.37%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +0.39%. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors closed the day with gains. Materials (XLB +1.14%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%) performed the best today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.67%) and Energy (XLE -0.94%) were the only two sectors to decline. Consumer Discretionary gained 14% in October and was due to pull back from its record close yesterday. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at 3.6 million barrels compared to the forecast of 1.6 million barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained +0.24% for the day. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields declined for the day. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold prices dropped as the dollar rose. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum futures continue to recede. The put/call ratio dropped to a very bullish level of 0.486. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Greed range. Microsoft (MSFT) had another record close with a +1.14% gain today. Amazon (AMZN) was the only of the four largest mega-caps to decline today. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are trading above their key moving average lines (21d EMA, 50d MA). Pfizer (PFE) topped the mega-cap list with a +4.15% gain after beating expectations and raising its outlook. Alibaba (BABA) continues volatile trading, ending the day at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -4.27% loss. Tesla (TSLA) was also near the bottom, declining -3.03% today. The EV stock is still doing very well since the Hertz purchase announcement. The majority of stocks in the Daily Update Growth List declined today, but there were some winners. MongoDB (MDB) was at the top of the list with a +4.03% gain. The stock was at the bottom of the list yesterday. The worst losers for the day were Chinese fintech companies UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). AVIS (CAR) became the latest meme stock with a retail frenzy causing a short squeeze and sending the stock soaring over 200% midday before ending the day with a +108% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday morning will kick off with the ADP Nonfarm Employment change report. Non-Manufacturing purchasing managers index data will come after the market opens. Crude Oil Inventories will also be available in the morning. The biggest news for the day will be the Fed's statement after their two-day meeting. The statement will include a decision on bond purchase tapering and the timing of future interest rate changes. The event is scheduled for 2 pm. Earnings tomorrow will include Novo Nordisk (NVO), Qualcomm (QCOM), CVS (CVS), Booking (BKNG), Humana (HUM), Marriott (MAR), Roku (ROKU), Electronic Arts (EA), Etsy (ETSY), CDW (CDW), MGM (MGM), Fox Corp (FOX), Qorvo Inc (QRVO), Hyatt (H), Fastly (FSLY), and Fisker (FSR) among many reports. Check your portfolio for earnings events. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued to march higher today, having no declines for the past seven sessions. The five-day trend line points to another +0.48% gain for Wednesday. The trend line from the 10/4 low and the one-day trend line point to a lateral move of +0.06% for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I thought today might be the start of a pullback as investors anticipate the Fed's decision. There is still likely to be some reaction to the Fed's statement tomorrow. Can the earnings optimism keep the bulls around, or will tomorrow be the first day in seven sessions with a decline? The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/1Summary: Small-caps soared today as the Russell 2000 nearly set a record close. Tesla helped carry the Nasdaq higher while the four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 1, 2021 Facts: +0.63%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 43% Green Good: Closing range of 98%, high advance/decline ratio Bad: Lowering volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long lower wick under small green body at top of candle Advance/Decline: 2.23, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (+0.26%), RUT (+2.65%), VIX (+0.92%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.83%) and Energy (XLE +1.72%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.12%) and Technology (XLK -0.15%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Small-caps soared today as the Russell 2000 nearly set a record close. Tesla helped carry the Nasdaq higher while the four largest mega-caps declined for the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.63% gain. Volume was slightly lower than the previous day but remained higher than average. The candle has a long lower wick formed in the morning just after the market opened. However, the index climbed from there, dipped in the afternoon, but continued to rise into the market close. The closing range of 98%, higher high, and higher low are all bullish and there were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +2.65% for the day, closing just below its record close in March. Since then, the small-cap index has been range-bound, so this week will be a big test to see if small-caps can break out. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.18%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed +0.26%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +0.92%. Tesla helped carry Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.83%) to the top of the sector list. Energy (XLE +1.72%) was the second-best sector for the day, overtaken by Consumer Discretionary in the final few minutes of trading. Only two sectors declined for the day, Health (XLV -0.12%) and Technology (XLK -0.15%). Manufacturing data for October released in the morning showed higher employment and better-than-expected activity among purchasing managers. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index came in at 60.8 against the forecast of 60.5. Overall the data shows supply-chain is still a concern but not quite as bad as analysts thought. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined -0.27% for the day. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Treasury Yield declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell sharply. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate prices also fell. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.541. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into Extreme Greed. The four largest mega-caps all declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the most significant decline, falling -3.07% for the day. After bouncing on Friday's dip, Amazon (AMZN) closed lower today, dropping -1.61%. Apple (AAPL) dipped to its 21d EMA and 50d MA before getting support and closing only -0.56% for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) has the healthiest-looking chart, declining only -0.68% today after several days of gains. Tesla (TSLA) was the top mega-cap for the day, seemingly carrying the whole market higher. The company gained +8.49%, continuing to rise on the large Hertz purchase and the positive outlook for the EV industry. Alphabet was the worst-performing mega-cap for the day, followed by Eli Lilly (LLY), which declined -2.14%. Chinese Fintech companies topped the Daily Update Growth List. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holding (FUTU) continue to trade with high volatility, advancing +12.52% and +8.97% today. It wasn't a great day for all growth stocks. MongoDB (MDB) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) were at the bottom of the growth list with declines of -4.4%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday is a quiet day for economic news as investors await the outcome of a two-day Fed meeting this week. News from the meeting will come on Wednesday. Pfizer (PFE), T-Mobile (TMUS), Amgen (AMGN), Estee Lauder (EL), Prudential Financial (PRU), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Paycom (PAYC), Zillow (Z), SolarEdge (SEDG), LYFT (LYFT), and Fidelity (FNF) are a few of the earnings reports for Tuesday that will give clues on how companies and specific segments are progressing. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new all-time high and record close today. After three days of gains, the trend lines are pointing at a lateral move for Tuesday. All three trend lines (from the 10/4 low, the one-day, and the five-day) point to a +0.07% gain for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up November 1, 2020, marked the start of an amazing run for small-caps and the Russell 2000. The index gained 50% between November 1, 2020, and its latest all-time high on March 15, 2021. Based on today's advance, it looks like the small-cap index wants to go on another run. There are reasons that the index could run again. Small-caps have historically responded better to Fed monetary policy changes. They may initially dip just like any other segments, but the following one to two years tend to be great years for the Russell 2000. Investors are awaiting the Fed's official decision over bond purchase tapering. Over the next two days, there will likely be some hedging and profit-taking among stocks that have benefited from the loose monetary policy. That includes large multinationals and tech growth stocks, which could hold back the Nasdaq. Once initial reaction to news clears, it's reasonable to believe the Nasdaq can continue its bullish rally. For tomorrow, the expectation is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
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