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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 8/30Summary: Technology stocks rallied today after the Fed expressed a dovish stance toward tapering and interest rate hikes on Friday. Cyclical sectors faded while growth sectors dominated the top of the sector list. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 30, 2021 Facts: +0.90%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 85% (w/gap), Body: 81% Green Good: Strong gain in morning, held near high in the afternoon Bad: Lower volume, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap-up at open, with tick green body and tiny upper wick. No lower wick. Advance/Decline: 0.61, more than three declining stocks for every two advancing Indexes: SPX (+0.43%), DJIA (-0.16%), RUT (-0.49%), VIX (-1.22%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.22%) and Technology (XLK +1.08%) at the top. Energy (XLE -1.18%) and Financials (XLF -1.41%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Technology stocks rallied today after the Fed expressed a dovish stance toward tapering and interest rate hikes on Friday. Cyclical sectors faded while growth sectors dominated the top of the sector list. The Nasdaq gained +0.90% for another record close. The closing range of 85% is just under a small upper wick, formed from a dip in the last hour of trading. The 81% Green body developed in the morning rally, with the index leveling off at a new all-time high and holding that level in the afternoon. Volume was lower than the previous day, and there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 also had a record close, advancing +0.43% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.16%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.49%. The small-cap index had a healthy pullback after a significant gain on Friday. Real Estate (XLRE +1.22%) and Technology (XLK +1.08%) topped the sector list today. Energy (XLE -1.18%) and Financials (XLF -1.41%) were at the bottom. Real Estate and Financials are reacting in opposite directions to the Fed's dovish stance toward interest rates. Lower interest rates mean lower costs for the Real Estate sector, but they negatively impact income for the Financial sector. The lower interest rates and a weaker dollar are favorable for the Technology sector. Pending Home Sales slid -1.8% for July after declined -2.0% in June. It's unclear from the data whether the reduction in signed contracts is a supply or demand issue. However, with the Real Estate sector outperforming, it is likely a supply issue. The US Dollar remained about the same for the day. US Treasury yields declined. The Fed will likely taper bond buying more slowly than expected, even if they start within this year. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced another day, hitting their highest level since the start of the pandemic. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) also rose for the day. Commodities remained about the same, with Wood and Copper having the most gains for the day. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.597. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into the Greed area but is still near Neutral. All four of the largest mega-caps gained for the day, with Apple (AAPL) advancing +3.04% to a new all-time high. The gain came after news that Alphabet will pay Apple almost $15 billion this year to retain its position as the default search option in iOS. PayPal (PYPL) was the top mega-cap for the day. The big banks were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. UP Fintech (TIGR) was the top growth stock in the daily update list. RobinHood (HOOD) was the worst-performing stock in the list, losing over -6%. The SEC said that banning payment for order flow is a possibility. Zoom Video (ZM) disappointed investors in its earnings call. The company showed slowing growth despite beating analyst expectations. They also announced an acquisition of Five9 (FIVN). Zoom was down more than 12% in after-hours trading. Five9 was down more than 10%. Hurricane Ida hit New Orleans this weekend and stayed around long enough to disrupt power and possibly impact fuel supply. That sent oil prices up, but the Energy sector was at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Inflation data for Europe will be available on Tuesday morning. CB Consumer Confidence data will be released after the market opens. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is updated after the market closes. CrowdStrike (CRWD), NetEase (NTES), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) release earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance It was another new all-time high for the Nasdaq today. The trend line from the 8/19 low and the one-day trend line both point to about a +0.68% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line ends with a lateral move of +0.04%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole last week is still being absorbed into the market. The impact is more bullish investor sentiment in both the equity and bond markets. There is quite a bit of space between today's close and the 21d exponential moving average. So although the candle is bullish today, a lateral move or even minor pullback would be constructive for tomorrow. The expectation is set for Sideways or Higher. Lower would not be a big surprise. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Market Week in Review - 8/23/2021 - 8/27/2021Summary: Last week's fears melted away to optimism. The Nasdaq rallied to a new all-time high and record weekly close. The S&P 500 marked yet another record close, which has become a common occurrence this year. Yet, the bigger story was with small-caps and the Russell 2000, leading the market higher and building some structural support in the market to continue the rally in the final quarter of the year. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 23, 2021 Facts: +1.55%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 91% (w/gap), Body: 89% Green Good: No lower wick and small upper wick, thick green body with big gain on higher volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up at open, thick green body under a small upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.18, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.85%), DJI (+0.61%), RUT (+1.88%), VIX (-7.60%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.75%) and Technology (XLK +1.29%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.38%) and Utilities (XLU -1.29%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher On Monday, the market turned optimistic after the FDA fully approved Pfizer's vaccine, adding a third day of gains off of last week's pivot low and ending with a record for the Nasdaq. Gains were broadly shared across stocks, and the defensive sectors dropped to the bottom of the sector list. The Nasdaq gained +1.55% for the day and set a new all-time high and record close. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has no lower wick for the third straight day. The thick green body covers 89% of the candle and is under a tiny upper wick, resulting in a 91% closing range (including the gap up at open). There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 24, 2021 Facts: +0.52%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 79% (w/gap), Body: 60% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, fourth day of green candles Bad: Lower volume, otherwise nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thinner candle with small upper and lower wicks, mostly green body Advance/Decline: 1.33, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.15%), DJI (+0.09%), RUT (+1.02%), VIX (+0.41%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.66%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.71%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.75%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.76%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Small-caps led the markets higher for a another day, giving indexes their fourth day of gains after last week's dip. Even meme stocks were back in play with huge gains from GME and AMC. The Nasdaq closed +0.52% higher. Volume was lower than the previous day with a short candle that is still mostly body. The 60% body is in between a small upper and lower wick. The index ended the day with a 79% closing range, including the gap. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 25, 2021 Facts: +0.15%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 63%, Body: 6% Green Good: Low volatility day, high A/D ratio, green candle. Bad: Indecision marked by thin body Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Spinning top candle with thin body in the middle of similar length wicks. Advance/Decline: 1.14, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.22%), DJIA (+0.11%), RUT (+0.37%), VIX (-2.50%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +1.18%) and Energy (XLE +0.76%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Health (XLV -0.27%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways The Nasdaq and S&P 500 had another set of record closes while the small-cap Russell 2000 continues to outperform as the market heads higher. Economic news was slightly bullish, with core durable goods and crude oil inventories showing more demand than expected. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.15% gain, just slightly higher than where it opened. Volume was lower than the previous day and remained lower than the 20-day average. The spinning top candle, marked by a thin body in the middle of short upper and lower wicks, shows indecision in the market as the index hits new all-time highs. There were more advancing than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, August 26, 2021 Facts: -0.64%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 5%, Body: 66% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Closing range, low A/D ratio, lower high/low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body at bottom of candle. Longer upper wick than lower wick. Advance/Decline: 0.42, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.58%), DJI (-0.54%), RUT (-1.13%), VIX (+12.21%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +0.06%) and Utilities (XLU -0.25%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.92%) and Energy (XLE -1.52%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Indexes moved lower for the first time in several days as investors became defensive after slightly higher than expected jobless claims data. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.64% decline on lower volume than the previous day. The red body covers 66% of the candle which has a longer upper wick than lower wick. The closing range of 5% shows the selling continued into close. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, August 27, 2021 Facts: +1.23%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 92%, Body: 90% Green Good: All green body, gain on higher volume, higher high/low Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a short upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.53, five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.88%), DJIA (+0.69%), RUT (+2.85%), VIX (-13.00%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.67%) and Communications (XLC +1.58%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.03%) and Health (XLV -0.11%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher A dovish stance from the Fed's Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium sent stocks higher today. Gains were broadly shared across the market, with small caps leading the way. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs. The Nasdaq advanced +1.23% for the day. Volume was significantly higher than the previous days. The candle is mostly green body as the index rose throughout the day and only dipped near the close, leaving a short upper wick. The 92% closing range on top of a 90% body is bullish for the index. Gains were broadly shared, with five stocks advancing for every two declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week Last week's fears melted away to optimism. The Nasdaq rallied to a new all-time high and record weekly close. The S&P 500 marked yet another record close, which has become a common occurrence this year. Yet, the bigger story was with small-caps and the Russell 2000, leading the market higher and building some structural support in the market to continue the rally in the final quarter of the year. In contrast to last week, when the bad news piled on top of bad news, this week the good news just kept coming. First it was the final FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine on Monday. Then, it was the approval of the $3.5 trillion budget in the House and a promise of a vote for the Infrastructure bill by the end of September. Economic data was not overly positive, but it also wasn't overly negative. The best news came from the Jackson Hole economic symposium. At the symposium, the Fed's Jerome Powell gave a speech that perfectly balanced the reality of tapering with a cautiously optimistic outlook toward the economy. Powell acknowledged that there was progress with employment, but still work to do. He also expressed concern over the Delta variant of the Coronavirus. He also restated that inflation appears transitory, and they wouldn't overreact. That showed investors that the Fed would be dovish toward interest rate increases in the near term. The result of all the good news was a rally throughout the week for the major indexes. Gains were broadly shared across the market. The advance/decline ratio for the Nasdaq was above 1.0 four out of five days in the week. On Friday, the advance/decline ratio for the New York Stock Exchange was 6.58, or more than six advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Nasdaq advanced +2.82% for the week. Volume was higher than the previous week. The closing range is 96%. The weekly candle has no lower wick and only a tiny upper wick. The only dip during the week was on Thursday. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes with a +5.05% gain for the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.52%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.96%. The VIX volatility index fell -13.00%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Sectors A mix of growth and cyclical sectors topped the list this week. Defensive s all sectors declined for the week after topping the sector list last week. Energy ( XLE ) held the lead among sectors for the entire week, despite a pullback on Thursday. The sector completely recovered from last week's decline and marked a higher high this week. All of the cyclical and growth sectors had solid gains, with Financials ( XLF ) ending the week in second place. Technology ( XLK ) trailed the other gaining sectors, underperforming the overall S&P 500 but still finished with a +1.45% gain. Utilities ( XLU ) was the worst-performing sector for the week as investors rotated out of defensive positions and back into bullish cyclical and growth positions. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.83%. The dollar will weaken when investors see a dovish Fed and strengthen when they see a hawkish Fed. A hawkish Fed would raise interest rates, making the US Dollar and Treasuries more attractive. Right now, Jerome Powell is not indicating any move toward raising interest rates as he believes inflation is transitory and raising interest rates would slow down the labor market recovery. US Treasuries 30y and 10y yields rose for the week while the 2y yield declined. The US 30y-5y spread widened slightly. All Treasury yields dipped on Friday after Jerome Powell's speech. But shorter-term yields dipped more as investors see a slower tapering from the Fed than previously thought. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices increased for the week. It was a bullish week for commodities. The highlight was Aluminum that soared back to record highs. The metal is required for in many product packaging other manufacturing processes. High demand for Aluminum means high demand for manufacturing. All of the commodities were likely impacted by the weakening US Dollar. The moves up for Gold and Silver were mostly from the US Dollar moving down. Copper and Timber also rose this week, both required for infrastructure. Crude Oil rebounded from several weeks of declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.607. It's in the bullish range, but not overly bullish compared to earlier in the week when it hit 0.512. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved from Extreme Fear to Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved up to 92.83 this week from 70.57 the previous week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Stocks of the Week Amazon (AMZN) moved back above its 40w moving average line with a +4.68% gain. Alphabet (GOOGL) also outperformed, advancing +4.78%. Microsoft (MSFT) pulled back from new all-time highs, declining -1.52% for the week. Apple (AAPL) showed an indecisive week with a +0.28% gain and thin-bodied candle. Semiconductors (SMH) set a new record close on Friday, advancing +6.11%. The sector was helped higher by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) which gained +9.59% and +8.74%, respectively. The two outperformed other mega-caps, topping the list for the week. Health stocks did not do well this week. Pfizer (PFE) ended the week at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -4.35% decline, despite getting final FDA approval for its COVID vaccine on Monday. Novo Nordisk (NVO), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) were other health-related stocks at the bottom of the mega-cap list. AMC (AMC) and GameStop (GME) were back in the spotlight this week with huge meme-stock gains on Tuesday. They both pulled back from intra-week highs, but AMC held onto an +18.69% gain for the week, while GameStop held onto a +28.66% advance. Penn National Gaming (PENN) and DraftKings (DKNG) advanced +23.52% and +15.38% as pro and college football seasons kickoff in the US. ESPN is also reportedly looking to get into the online sports gambling opportunity. Salesforce.com (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), and Workday (WDAY) were a few of the earnings winners for the week. Peloton (PTON) had nothing but bad news during its earnings call, announcing a miss on expectations, price drops, and investigations by the DOJ, DHS, and SEC. The stock dropped -8.55% on Friday, ending the week with a -3.45% weekly decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency Cryptocurrencies have been moving sideways for the past two weeks. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.32% this week. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -0.69%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday Pending Home Sales data will be available on Monday morning. China will release purchasing manager index data showing current economic activity in the late evening. Zoom Video (ZM and StoneCo (STNE) will be earnings reports to watch on Monday after the close. Tuesday Inflation data for Europe will be available on Tuesday morning. CB Consumer Confidence data will be released after the market opens. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is updated after the market closes. Crowdstrike (CRWD), NetEase (NTES), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) release earnings. Wednesday Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index data will be available on Wednesday. Crude Oil Inventories gets a weekly update after the market opens. Okta (OKTA), Chewy (CHWY), and Five Below (FIVE) will release earnings on Wednesday. Thursday Thursday morning will bring an update to Exports/Imports for July and Initial Jobless Claims for the week. Broadcom (AVGO), MongoDB (MDB), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Cloudera (CLDR), and Pagerduty (PD) will report earnings. Friday Employment data on Friday morning will show the progress in the labor market recovery. It's data watched closely by the Fed to determine economic policy. We'll also get the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. DocuSign (DOCU) will release earnings on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Two big events this past week provide a bullish outlook for the near term. First, the vote to accept the $3.5 trillion budget proposal in the House and a set deadline for the end of September to vote on the Infrastructure Bill. Second, the clear message from the Fed's Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole reaffirmed that tapering would begin but interest rate changes are still far in the future after more progress is made in recovering the labor market. Inflation is a concern, but the Fed still believes its transitory. The result was a weaker US dollar and a drop in Treasury yields. Both are bullish for US corporations. To be sure, look at small-caps as the most sensitive segment to changes in economic indicators. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was up +2.85% on Friday and gained 5.05% for the week. Earning season is winding down and it was overall very positive. Many companies showed strong earnings growth and provided positive guidance for the remainder of the year. High Yield Corporate Bond prices are soaring again as investors are bullish on US businesses. The gap between corporate bond yields and treasury yields is tightening. Corporations have plenty of cash and debt waiting to be spent which they'll unleash to grow their businesses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side We may be trending back toward an overly bullish market. Meme stocks were back in play this week with AMC and GME having huge gains. Other new meme stocks started to pop on Friday and may continue into next week. That bullish exuberance can be good for some in the short term but it increases volatility in the market and could weaken sentiment overall. The Delta variant of COVID is continuing to grow. Daily new cases in the US are higher now than they were one year ago and are approaching levels not seen since before mass vaccination started. It seems the economy and market has grown confident against the possible impact of the continuing pandemic, but that confidence may break at any moment. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq is back above the 21d EMA and 10d MA, cleared the 15,000 resistance area, and set new all-time highs this week with a record close on Friday. On the positive side, the levels are: The new all-time high was set on Friday and is 15,144.48. 15,500 may be the next area of resistance. On the downside, there are a few key levels: 15,000 should became an area of support now. The 10d moving average is at 14,831.19. The 21d EMA is at 14,818.04. The 50d MA is at 14,653.97. 14,423.16 is the low of the most recent pullback. 14,200 remains a critical level if the index moves downward. 14,000 has been an area of support/resistance. There is a pivot at 13,903.73. A further pullback would likely hit the 200d moving average at 13,616.87. The index hasn't approached this line since rising above it in April 2020. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Several good structural days this week with broadly shared gains looks good for the coming week. Still, with indexes at all-time highs, investors will be watching for any signs of weakness. For now, the bull rally continues and seems we still have momentum to grow from here. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/26Summary: Indexes moved lower for the first time in several days as investors became defensive after slightly higher than expected jobless claims data. Notes The update is late today due to travel. Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, August 27, 2021 Facts: -0.64%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 5%, Body: 66% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Closing range, low A/D ratio, lower high/low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body at bottom of candle. Longer upper wick than lower wick. Advance/Decline: 0.42, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.58%), DJI (-0.54%), RUT (-1.13%), VIX (+12.21%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +0.06%) and Utilities (XLU -0.25%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.92%) and Energy (XLE -1.52%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes moved lower for the first time in several days as investors became defensive after slightly higher than expected jobless claims data. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.64% decline on lower volume than the previous day. The red body covers 66% of the candle which has a longer upper wick than lower wick. The closing range of 5% shows the selling continued into close. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) pulled back the most, declining -1.13%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.58% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.54%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) gained +12.21%. Only one sector, Real Estate (XLRE +0.06%) gained for the day. The defensive sectors topped the list with Utilities (XLU -0.25) landing in the second spot. The worst performing sectors for the day were Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.92%) and Energy (XLE -1.52%). The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.24%. Treasury yields remained about the same. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined just slightly. Commodities overall declined a bit, but remain near recent levels. The put/call ratio rose to 0.692 as investors became a bit more bearish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further toward neutral, but remains in the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved up to 92.83 this week. Salesforce.com (CRM) was the top mega-cap for the day after reporting great earnings. Alibaba (BABA) was the worst performer for the day. Snowflake (SNOW) topped the daily update growth list, also because of a great earnings report. Most of the list was decliners with Digital Turbine (APPS) losing the most. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are two important sets of economic data to watch for on Friday. PCE Price Index data is a primary indicator of inflation. The data will be available before the market opens. After the market opens, attention will turn to the update for Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers for August. The preliminary numbers two weeks ago were well below expectation. Probably the most important event for tomorrow is the Fed's Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Investors will watch his comments closely for stance on the economic recovery and how the US and other governments should provide economic support moving forward. Big Lots (BIG) releases earnings on Friday morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped back below 15,000, but remains within the support area. The trend line from the 8/19 low points to a +2.03% gain for Friday. The five-day trend line ends with a +1.60% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.31% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After several days of gains and new all-time highs, there's no surprise the indexes took a pullback day. The question is will economic data and Jerome Powell's speech on Friday sour sentiment more or will indexes bounce back for a gain. Based on the red candle with a low closing range, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/27Summary: A dovish stance from the Fed's Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium sent stocks higher today. Gains were broadly shared across the market, with small caps leading the way. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, August 27, 2021 Facts: +1.23%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 92%, Body: 90% Green Good: All green body, gain on higher volume, higher high/low Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a short upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.53, five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.88%), DJIA (+0.69%), RUT (+2.85%), VIX (-13.00%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.67%) and Communications (XLC +1.58%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.03%) and Health (XLV -0.11%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A dovish stance from the Fed's Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium sent stocks higher today. Gains were broadly shared across the market, with small caps leading the way. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs. The Nasdaq advanced +1.23% for the day. Volume was significantly higher than the previous days. The candle is mostly green body as the index rose throughout the day and only dipped near the close, leaving a short upper wick. The 92% closing range on top of a 90% body is bullish for the index. Gains were broadly shared, with five stocks advancing for every two declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the way today with a massive +2.85% gain. The Fed's stance is bullish for small caps that will benefit from low interest rates running into the near term. The S&P 500 (SPX) had another record close with a +0.88% gain today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.88%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) declined -13.00%. Energy (XLE +2.67%) capped off a week as the leading sector with another top performance today. Communications (XLC +1.58%) was the second-best sector, followed by a mix of cyclical and growth sectors. Defensive sectors underperformed the S&P 500, with Utilities (XLU -0.03%) and Health (XLV -0.11%) at the bottom of the list. The US Dollar (DXY) sharply declined on the dovish position in Powell's speech. US Treasury yields also fell, with short-term Treasury yields having the most significant decline. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices increased. Commodities all tracked higher, with Aluminum (ALI1!) futures soaring to new highs. All of these show a bullish outlook for the economy and US corporations. Investors Sentiment grew more bullish as well. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.607, which is not the lowest for this week but is still in a very bullish range. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved from Fear to Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved up to 92.83 this week from 70.57 the previous week. Alphabet (GOOGL) had a record-setting close with a +1.81% gain. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +1.01% to move back above its 21d EMA but remain below its 50d MA. ASML Holding (ASML) was the top mega-cap for the day, advancing +2.71% to a new record close. Broadcom (AVGO) broke out of a multi-month base to close +2.10% higher and set a new all-time high. Alibaba (BABA) was the worst mega-cap for the day as it struggles to stay above a 52-week low. Workday (WDAY) surprised investors with earnings and advanced +9.13% today with a nice gap-up at market open. Upwork (UPWK) was the second-best in the daily update growth list, with a +5.84% advance. It was all bad news for Peloton (PTON) investors with missed earnings, price drops in key products, and warnings about DOJ, DHS, and SEC investigations. The stock dropped +8.55% on a day where almost everything else went up. Ouch! Chinese stocks, including Alibaba (BABA), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), and UP Fintech (TIGR), were also at the bottom of the growth list. Consumer sentiment data came in a bit lower than the preliminary results earlier in the month. However, nothing could sour investor mood after the very clear message from the Fed. Jerome Powell was clear about the Fed's future actions while also addressing the uncertainty in the current environment. He stated without a doubt that the Fed would begin tapering in the near future. But he also discussed that there is still work to do to reach full employment and monitor the situation with the Delta variant. That gave investors the confidence they needed to stay in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Pending Home Sales data will be available on Monday morning. China will release purchasing manager index data showing current economic activity in the late evening. Zoom Video (ZM and StoneCo (STNE) will be earnings reports to watch on Monday after the close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq hit another all-time high and record close today on very bullish energy. The trend line from the 8/19 low and the one-day trend line point to a +1.04% gain for Monday. The five-day trend line ends with a +0.03% lateral move. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a great way to end a constructive week for the market. With a minimum of bad news to sour investor sentiment, the timing was perfect for Jerome Powell to boost confidence in the market and the Fed's ability to help the economy weather near-term challenges. The uptrend continues, and the expectation for Monday is higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/25Summary: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 had another set of record closes while the small-cap Russell 2000 continues to outperform as the market heads higher. Economic news was slightly bullish, with core durable goods and crude oil inventories showing more demand than expected. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 25, 2021 Facts: +0.15%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 63%, Body: 6% Green Good: Low volatility day, high A/D ratio, green candle. Bad: Indecision marked by thin body Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Spinning top candle with thin body in the middle of similar length wicks. Advance/Decline: 1.14, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.22%), DJIA (+0.11%), RUT (+0.37%), VIX (-2.50%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +1.18%) and Energy (XLE +0.76%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Health (XLV -0.27%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq and S&P 500 had another set of record closes while the small-cap Russell 2000 continues to outperform as the market heads higher. Economic news was slightly bullish, with core durable goods and crude oil inventories showing more demand than expected. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.15% gain, just slightly higher than where it opened. Volume was lower than the previous day and remained lower than the 20-day average. The spinning top candle, marked by a thin body in the middle of short upper and lower wicks, shows indecision in the market as the index hits new all-time highs. There were more advancing than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led for another day with a +0.37% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) had a record close, gaining +0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.11%. The VIX Volatility Index declined -2.50%. Cyclicals led for the day after the House approved the $3.5 trillion budget proposal yesterday and promised to vote on the infrastructure bill before the end of September. Financials (XLF +1.18%) and Energy (XLE +0.76%) were the top sectors for the day. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Health (XLV -0.27%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The US Dollar declined for another day after hitting its highest point in 2021 last week. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose while the gap between long-term and short-term yields expanded. Investors continue to buy up High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) in search of returns not available in other bonds, sending prices higher today. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (IQD) declined for the day. Commodities continue to strengthen with Oil gaining for another day. Timber and Copper gained. Aluminum dropped a bit but remains near record highs. The put/call ratio rose to 0.560. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved closer to neutral but is still on the Fear side. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) led semiconductors higher for the day. Large banks, including JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), also outperformed other mega-caps. Penn National Gaming (PENN) and DraftKings (DKNG) topped the daily update growth list as pro and college football seasons kick-off in the US. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) were at the bottom of the list as they continue to trade with high volatility along with other Chinese stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers will be available before the market opens on Thursday. An update to the Q2 GDP numbers will also be released, which are expected to be slightly higher than the previous preliminary data. Thursday's earnings reports include Dell (DELL), VMWare (VMW), Workday (WDAY), Dollar General (DG), Woolworths (WOLZY), Peloton Interactive (PTON), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Gap (GPS), and UP Fintech (TIGR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set another new all-time high and record close today, building some support above the 15,000 area. The five-day trend line, which starts at the 8/19 low, points to a +1.65% gain for Thursday. The one-day trend line continues with another small gain of +0.14% for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It wasn't a very exciting day, but that's a good thing. Economic news was positive but was only supportive of where prices are now. The news was not enough to boost the indexes for another leg-up. More importantly, the economic news was not negative, which seems to have more impact as indexes are at all-time highs. Given the indecision show in today's spinning top candle, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/24Summary: Small-caps led the markets higher for another day, giving indexes their fourth day of gains after last week's dip. Even meme stocks were back in play with huge gains from GME and AMC. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 24, 2021 Facts: +0.52%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 79% (w/gap), Body: 60% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, fourth day of green candles Bad: Lower volume, otherwise nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thinner candle with small upper and lower wicks, mostly green body Advance/Decline: 1.33, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.15%), DJI (+0.09%), RUT (+1.02%), VIX (+0.41%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.66%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.71%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.75%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.76%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Small-caps led the markets higher for another day, giving indexes their fourth day of gains after last week's dip. Even meme stocks were back in play with huge gains from GME and AMC. The Nasdaq closed +0.52% higher. Volume was lower than the previous day with a short candle that is still mostly body. The 60% body is in between a small upper and lower wick. The index ended the day with a 79% closing range, including the gap. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led again today, gaining +1.02%. The index is bouncing back from the bottom of the trading range it's been in most of this year. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.15%, setting another record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.09%. The VIX Volatility Index gained +0.29% for the day. The top of the sector list is a mix of cyclical and growth sectors. Energy (XLE +1.66%) led the day, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.71%) coming in second. Technology (XLK -0.11%) pulled back a bit today after several days of gains. Defensive sectors at the bottom of the list include Real Estate (XLRE -0.75%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.76%). The US Dollar declined again with a -0.10% loss today. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields both gained for the day while the US 2y Treasury yield dropped. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Commodities mostly gained, with Aluminum hitting record highs again. Crude Oil prices are recovering from recent selling. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.512 as investors become more bullish with the current moves in the indexes. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains in Fear but is moving closer to neutral. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list with a +6.61% gain. Amazon (AMZN) moved back above its 200d moving average line with a +1.22% advance. Microsoft (MSFT) pulled back from all-time highs, declining -0.67% as it starts to form a base. JD.com (JD) pleased investors with earnings and soared +14.44% on a good day for Chinese stocks. Meme stocks GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) were back in play with +27.53% and +20.35% gains respectively. The House approved the $3.5 trillion budget proposal today and promised a vote promised by the end of September on the $1 trillion infrastructure bill. Investors are making moves ahead of the Fed's Jerome Powell's speech on Friday in Jackson Hole. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday give another look at the pace of economic growth. Crude Oil Inventories will also be available after the market open. Higher demand would be a positive for oil and the energy sector. Salesforce.com (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Autodesk (ADSK), and Ehang Holdings (EH) are some of the interesting earnings reports on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set another all-time high and record close today, moving above the 15,000 area acting as resistance. The trend line from the 8/19 low is pointing to a +1.60% for Wednesday. The five-day trend line ends with a +0.76% gain. The one-day trend line results in a +0.19% for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The rally continues as investor outlook overcomes dismal economic data from last week. We've had three good structural days with the advance/decline ratio above 1.0 and decent volume. Those have resulted in higher highs, higher lows, and high closing ranges each day. After several days of gains, it would not be a surprise for a lateral move or even a pullback. Still, the chart and fundamentals in the market are showing a strong uptrend. The expectation for tomorrow is set to Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/23Summary: On Monday, the market turned optimistic after the FDA fully approved Pfizer's vaccine, adding a third day of gains off of last week's pivot low and ending with a record for the Nasdaq. Gains were broadly shared across stocks, and the defensive sectors dropped to the bottom of the sector list. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 23, 2021 Facts: +1.55%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 91% (w/gap), Body: 89% Green Good: No lower wick and small upper wick, thick green body with big gain on higher volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up at open, thick green body under a small upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.18, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.85%), DJI (+0.61%), RUT (+1.88%), VIX (-7.60%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.75%) and Technology (XLK +1.29%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.38%) and Utilities (XLU -1.29%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview On Monday, the market turned optimistic after the FDA fully approved Pfizer's vaccine, adding a third day of gains off of last week's pivot low and ending with a record for the Nasdaq. Gains were broadly shared across stocks, and the defensive sectors dropped to the bottom of the sector list. The Nasdaq gained +1.55% for the day and set a new all-time high and record close. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has no lower wick for the third straight day. The thick green body covers 89% of the candle and is under a tiny upper wick, resulting in a 91% closing range (including the gap up at open). There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) small-caps led the day, with the index gaining +1.88%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.85%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.61%. Energy (XLE +3.75%) jumped to the top of the sector list after a huge weekly loss this past week. Technology (XLK +1.29%) was the second-best sector, with the other growth sectors following close behind. The defensive sectors were at the bottom of the list, with Real Estate (XLRE -0.38%) and Utilities (XLU -1.29%) having the most considerable losses. Both the mega-cap list and daily update growth list were dominated by gainers today. Nvidia was the top mega-cap with a +5.49% gain. Pfizer (PFE) gained +2.48% as its vaccine gained full FDA approval. Competitors in the health sector declined, with United Health (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Eli Lilly (LLY) all having more than 1% losses. Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data came in less than expected, but Existing Homes Sales was higher than expected. The Dollar (DXY) dropped -0.52%, while US Treasuries remained about the same. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose for a second day. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices also gained. Oil prices gained over 5% for the day. Commodities also gained for the day, with Aluminum heading back toward record highs. Investor sentiment is bullish, with the put/call ratio (PCCE) dropping to .593 and the CNN Fear & Greed index moving back toward Neutral (but is still in the Fear zone). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead New Home Sales will be available on Tuesday morning. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock comes after the market closes. Medtronic (MDT), Intuit (INTU), Pinduoduo (PDD), and Best Buy (BBY) are some of the earnings reports to watch for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index set a new all-time high today but leveled off just below the 15,000 level, which is expected. Round numbers provide a resistance point as they trigger trading rules. The three-day rally created a trend line from the 8/19 bottom, ending with a +1.42% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +1.00% gain. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.34% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was another excellent structural day for the market as gains were shared broadly across the key segments that move indexes higher over time. All the components were there for a bullish run. High advanced/decline ratio and higher volume created a gap-up, higher high and higher low, and a very positive gain. We've also been tracking the Russell 2000, which bounced off a lower support area that's defined the bottom of a trading range since February. We'll continue to watch it as it approaches the upper boundary of that range. The expectation is for sideways or higher tomorrow. It will be no surprise if the Nasdaq hits more resistance at 15,000 before moving above that line. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 8/16/2021 - 8/20/2021Summary: Fears of a slowing economic recovery among rising cases of the Delta variant drove investors through a volatile week in the stock market. To make things worse, the Fed meeting minutes indicated that tapering could begin within this year. Despite the bad news, investors stuck with equities but rotated into defensive sectors. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 16, 2021 Facts: -0.20%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 12% Good: Volume lower on retreat, high closing range Bad: Long lower wick pierced through 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Hanging man, small body above long lower wick within uptrend Advanced/Decline: 0.31, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.26%), DJI (+0.31%), RUT (-0.89%), VIX (+4.20%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.14%) and Utilities (XLU +0.61%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.50%) and Energy (XLE -1.84%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Investors sold off equities in the morning and then seemingly decided there was nowhere else to put the money and bought back assets in the afternoon. Money moved back into the market, mostly into defensive sectors, sending the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) to another set of records. The Nasdaq closed with a decline of -0.20% after dipping more than 1.4% in the morning. Volume was lower than the previous day. The thin body above a long lower wick creates a hanging man candlestick within an uptrend. The closing range of 100% shows bulls kept up the buying into close. Still, there were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 17, 2021 Facts: -0.93%, Volume higher, Closing range: 63%, Body: 9% Good: Stayed above 50d MA Bad: Break down below 21d EMA on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.32, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.71%), DJI (-0.79%), RUT (-1.19%), VIX (+11.24%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.18%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.15%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.37%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower Disappointing retail sales data confirmed fears that the rising cases of the Delta variant are slowing down the economic recovery. That sent major indexes lower on Tuesday. Only the defensive sectors ended the day with gains. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.93% loss on higher volume than the previous day, marking a distribution day for the index. The candle has a thin red body in the upper half of the candle. The closing range is 63%, and the body only covers 9% of the candle. The lower wick is longer than the upper wick. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 18, 2021 Facts: -0.89%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 61% Good: Lower volume Bad: Close below the 50d MA, sell-off before close of market Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Large red body below short upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.38, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.07%), DJI (-1.08%), RUT (-0.84%), VIX (+20.32%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.36%) and Utilities (XLU -0.51%) at the top. Health (XLV -1.52%) and Energy (XLE -2.08%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower Stocks slid after the Fed released meeting minutes from last month, raising fears that tapering support for the economy could come earlier than previously thought. Most sectors declined, with only Consumer Discretionary holding onto a gain for the day. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.89% loss, dipping just below the 50-day moving average line. Volume was lower than the previous day. The closing range of 5% is below a 61% red body. There is a short upper wick with a very tiny lower wick. There were almost three stocks declining for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, August 19, 2021 Facts: +0.11%, Volume higher, Closing range: 63%, Body: 63% Good: Higher volume on gain, close near the 50d MA Bad: Lower high, lower low continues downtrend Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: No lower wick, large green body underneath upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.28, over three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.13%), DJI (-0.19%), RUT (-1.22%), VIX (+0.46%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +0.98%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.84%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.89%) and Energy (XLE -2.60%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower Investors grappled today with reactions to the Fed meeting minutes released late on Wednesday. The minutes showed several officials in the Fed see the possibility that a key employment goal may be met before year-end and would allow tapering to begin. The result was a dip at open followed by a volatile day as the market priced in the impact. The Nasdaq cleared a small gain for the day, advancing +0.11% and closing at the 50-day moving average line. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has no lower wick, a 63% green body, and a 37% upper wick. The index could not hold onto the gains from the morning rally. Despite the slight increase, there were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, August 20, 2021 Facts: +1.19%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 95%, Body: 95% Green Good: All green body, high advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny upper wick, low above yesterday's close Advance/Decline: 1.68, three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.81%), DJIA (+0.65%), RUT (+1.65%), VIX (-14.35%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +1.29%) and Utilities (XLU +1.25%) at the top. Energy (XLE +0.22%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.17%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher The market shrugged off worries about the Fed tapering of economic support to rally higher today. While the indexes were still below recent highs, the day was an excellent structural day, with gains shared broadly across the market. The Nasdaq closed +1.19% higher. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is almost entirely green body, with a short upper wick. The closing range of 95% and 95% body creates the second candle in a row with no lower wick. The index closed back above its 21d EMA as three stocks advanced for every two that declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week www.tradingview.com Fears of a slowing economic recovery among rising cases of the Delta variant drove investors through a volatile week in the stock market. To make things worse, the Fed meeting minutes indicated that tapering could begin within this year. Despite the bad news, investors stuck with equities but rotated into defensive sectors. It opened on Monday with news of China retail sales falling much lower than expected. That sent indexes lower on Monday before prices recovered from the shocking news. Despite the dip, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average had another record close for the day. The bounce was short-lived. Tuesday brought the US Retail Sales data, which also came in lower than expected. That turned many bulls into bears, and the indexes moved lower and with higher volume. The Nasdaq closed below its 21d exponential moving average line. It seemed all was clear on Wednesday as buyers came back into the market, but then the Fed released meeting minutes in the afternoon that reversed the dip-buying. The Fed's minutes showed several Fed officials believed that tapering could start this year as key economic recovery goals were being met. The index sold off to close below its 50d moving average line. The selling resulted in a gap down at open on Thursday, but the sudden drop below 14,500 seemed enough to get investors back into the game, and the opening price became the low of the day. The rally took the Nasdaq back above its 50d moving average but then faded to close below. Given the fade and the lower high and lower low for the day, the expectation was still for the Nasdaq to move lower on Friday. That did not happen. Instead, the index opened above the 50d moving average and rose the entire day to close above its 21d exponential moving average. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks, and all sectors gained. That was an excellent structural day to end the week. The rally on Friday could be because the Fed's Robert Kaplan, who is influential among the group, changed his tone toward tapering, stating that the Delta variant was concerning and may have a prolonged impact on the economy. The rally may also have been because of the monthly options expiration. Or it may just be more speculative dip-buying. We won't know until next week when the market can decide where it goes next. The Nasdaq declined -0.73% for the week. Volume was lower than the previous week. The closing range is 78%. Three weeks of long lower wicks show the presence of sellers as the index is at all-time highs. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.11%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -2.50% for the week. The VIX volatility index rose 60% mid-week but closed the week at a +19.99% gain. Defensive sectors led throughout this week as the Market absorbed data that showed a slowing economic recovery and meeting minutes from the Fed that indicated tapering could begin this year. Utilities ( XLU ) and Health Care ( XLV ) exchanged the lead several times, and the finish was close. Utilities became a favorite place for investors to keep money in equities while taking a defensive stance toward the economy. Health Care also did well as the world watches another wave of the pandemic brought on by the Delta variant of COVID. Technology ( XLK ) also mixed in with the defensive sectors at the top of the list. Big tech seems to be another safe play for equity investors, with Microsoft ( MSFT ), Apple ( AAPL ), and Alphabet ( GOOGL ) all turning in strong financials and appear resilient to new waves of lockdowns. Suffering the most from fears of economic slowdown and the pandemic, Energy ( XLE ) came in the last place for the week with a huge loss of over 7%. Yields for the US 30y and 10y both declined this week while 2y Treasuries advanced. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices dipped, and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices rose for the week. Both moves were small. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +1.01% for the week. The dollar is at its strongest in 2021. Silver (SILVER) declined -2.94%, while Gold (GOLD) advanced +0.08%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) dropped -8.68%. Timber (WOOD) declined -3.83%. Copper (COPPER1!) declined -4.55%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -1.97%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps Microsoft (MSFT) beat the market this week with a +3.93% gain, helping send the Technology sector to new highs. The other four largest mega-caps took losses. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.61% and -0.22%. The charts of these two companies look good, remaining above their 10-week moving average. Amazon (AMZN) continues to fall back after earnings a month ago. This week is declined -2.85% and closed below its 50w moving average. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). Bitcoin (BTCUSD) outperformed the other cryptocurrencies this week with a +4.16% gain (time of writing). Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.02%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) lost -1.01%. Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) fell -3.23%. Keep in mind that the US Dollar advanced 1.00% when considering these crypto prices with the USD as the denominator. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.760, elevated from the previous week. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved back into Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.57 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be available on Monday, just after the market opens. Existing Home Sales data will also be available. JD.com (JD) releases earnings on Monday. Tuesday New Home Sales will be available on Tuesday morning. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock comes after the market closes. Medtronic (MDT), Intuit (INTU), Pinduoduo (PDD), and Best Buy (BBY) are some of the earnings reports to watch for Tuesday. Wednesday Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday give another look at the pace of economic growth. Crude Oil Inventories will also be available after the market open. Higher demand would be a positive for oil and the energy sector. Salesforce.com (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Autodesk (ADSK), and Ehang Holdings (EH) are some of the interesting earnings reports on Wednesday. Thursday The weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers will be available before the market opens on Thursday. An update to the Q2 GDP numbers will also be released, which are expected to be slightly higher than the previous preliminary data. Thursday's earnings reports include Dell (DELL), VMWare (VMW), Workday (WDAY), Dollar General (DG), Woolworths (WOLZY), Peloton Interactive (PTON), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Gap (GPS), and UP Fintech (TIGR). Friday There are two important sets of economic data to watch for on Friday. PCE Price Index data is a primary indicator of inflation. The data will be available before the market opens. After the market opens, attention will turn to the update for Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers for August. The preliminary numbers two weeks ago were well below expectation. Big Lots (BIG) releases earnings on Friday morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side The market certainly turned more bearish this week. However, there are still some bullish signals. First, negative reactions to disappointing economic data were short-lived, and even the revelation that the Fed might start tapering economic support only had a temporary impact. The reality is there are not so many great places for investors to put money other than in equities right now. That resulted in them finding the safest bets within equities, which sent defensive sectors higher and boosted high-performing tech companies. Although there will be some impact if the Fed begins to taper, the reason for tapering is a strong economy. If jobs data shows full employment on the horizon, we should see a pickup in consumer and corporate spending. Both groups still have cash and debt to burn. That all equals growth. Inflation has shown signs of cooling off, and we'll get another look at the numbers on Friday. Although consumers are still feeling inflation at the register, there is likely oversupply across the supply chain and even into consumer homes. That extra supply could mean inflation slowing or even has a period of deflation. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side The pandemic is wearing on the consumers and the economy. With the Delta variant rising in numbers, the outlook continues to dim. Although new lockdowns in the US are likely not on the horizon, the mood for consumers is keeping people home, impacting the service sectors. Across the board, data is showing a slowing economy. Retail sales were lower than forecast. Commodities this week all moved lower. Consumer sentiment is lower than during the height of the pandemic. The Nasdaq rebound off the intra-week low to end the week with a gain on Friday. That could just be a retracement before another move downward next week. Investor sentiment is low, and any bad news may be the final straw before a more significant correction. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq dipped below the 21d EMA and 50d MA but recovered and closed above both key moving average lines. On the positive side, the levels are: The 10d moving average is at 14,728.49. The all-time high of 14,896.47 is the level to pass and continue the bull run. The round number 15,000 is likely to be a new area of resistance. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 21d EMA is at 14,714.66. The 50d MA is at 14,562.73. 14,423.16 is the low of the past week. 14,200 remains a critical level if the index moves downward. 14,000 has been an area of support/resistance. There is a pivot at 13,903.73, which A further pullback would likely hit the 200d moving average at 13,548.93. The index hasn't approached this line since rising above it in April 2020. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was not an easy week for investors. Economic and geopolitical bad news piled up, and the Fed meeting minutes added to the worries of tapering. Still, it seems investors are sticking to equities. As investors do not have many places to put money, that means they'll be continuously rotating within market sectors to find the best places to get returns. Expect to feel dizzy as you watch your favorite stocks churn. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/20Summary: The market shrugged off worries about the Fed tapering of economic support to rally higher today. While the indexes were still below recent highs, the day was an excellent structural day, with gains shared broadly across the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, August 20, 2021 Facts: +1.19%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 95%, Body: 95% Green Good: All green body, high advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny upper wick, low above yesterday's close Advance/Decline: 1.68, three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.81%), DJIA (+0.65%), RUT (+1.65%), VIX (-14.35%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +1.29%) and Utilities (XLU +1.25%) at the top. Energy (XLE +0.22%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.17%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market shrugged off worries about the Fed tapering of economic support to rally higher today. While the indexes were still below recent highs, the day was an excellent structural day, with gains shared broadly across the market. The Nasdaq closed +1.19% higher. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is almost entirely green body, with a short upper wick. The closing range of 95% and 95% body creates the second candle in a row with no lower wick. The index closed back above its 21d EMA as three stocks advanced for every two that declined. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the indexes with a +1.65% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.81%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained +0.65%. The VIX volatility index fell -14.35%. All sectors gained today. Technology (XLK +1.29%) and Utilities (XLU +1.25%) topped the sector list, giving us another day of mixed growth and defensive sectors at the top of the sector list. Energy (XLE +0.22%) had a slight gain to end a week of huge losses. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.17%) was at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The Fed's Kaplan, who has been a proponent of an early reduction in economic support, stated this morning that he might need to change his view based on the growing concerns around the Delta variant. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.11%. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined while and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +5.11%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.58%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) topped the largest four mega-caps with a gap up and huge +2.56% gain today that took the stock past 300 for the first time. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.02%. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +1.29%. Both are riding support from their 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +0.38% but remained below its 200d MA as the 50d MA starts to turn over to a decline. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list with a 5.14% gain. The company was followed by Microsoft, Home Depot (HD), and Cisco (CSCO) to round out the top four. At the bottom of the list were Toyota Motor, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Alibaba (BABA), and Intel (INTC). Growth stocks were back in action today. Top performers in the daily update growth list included Ehang Holding (EH), Nvidia, FUTU Holding (FUTU), and Fastly (FSLY), all gaining more than 4%. There were a handful of losers, with Chewy (CHWY), Sea Limited (SE), Snowflake (SNOW), and Robinhood (HOOD) all declining more than 3%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.740. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in extreme fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.57 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be available on Monday, just after the market opens. Existing Home Sales data will also be available. JD.com (JD) releases earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed back above the 21d EMA today. The one-day trend line points to a +0.46% gain for Monday. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.97% decline. The trend line from the 8/5 high points to a -0.97% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a solid green day with broad gains shared across the market and small-caps leading the way higher. That all feels bullish. The only thing missing from today was higher volume. As Microsoft (MSFT) made new all-time highs, helping the Technology sector lead for the day, investors also became cautious, turning to the Utilities (XLU) sector for defense. Based on the low that's above yesterday's close, the expectation is for Higher on Monday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/19Summary: Investors grappled today with reactions to the Fed meeting minutes released late on Wednesday. The minutes showed several officials in the Fed see the possibility that a key employment goal may be met before year-end and would allow tapering to begin. The result was a dip at open followed by a volatile day as the market priced in the impact. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, August 19, 2021 Facts: +0.11%, Volume higher, Closing range: 63%, Body: 63% Good: Higher volume on gain, close near the 50d MA Bad: Lower high, lower low continues downtrend Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: No lower wick, large green body underneath upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.28, over three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.13%), DJI (-0.19%), RUT (-1.22%), VIX (+0.46%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +0.98%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.84%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.89%) and Energy (XLE -2.60%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors grappled today with reactions to the Fed meeting minutes released late on Wednesday. The minutes showed several officials in the Fed see the possibility that a key employment goal may be met before year-end and would allow tapering to begin. The result was a dip at open followed by a volatile day as the market priced in the impact. The Nasdaq cleared a small gain for the day, advancing +0.11% and closing at the 50-day moving average line. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has no lower wick, a 63% green body, and a 37% upper wick. The index could not hold onto the gains from the morning rally. Despite the slight increase, there were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.13%, helped by gains in big tech. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.19%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.22%. The RUT closed above the lower support of a trading range it's been within since February. The VIX volatility index rose +0.46%. Technology (XLK +0.98%) topped the sector list today, followed by the defensive sectors. The mega-caps helped drive the gains in Technology. Real Estate (XLRE +0.84%) was the second-best sector, followed by the other defensive sectors. Materials (XLB -0.89%) and Energy (XLE -2.60%) were at the bottom, along with the other cyclical sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Initial Jobless Claims came in better than expected, while Continue Jobless Claims was slightly higher than expected. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was lower than forecast, indicating a slowdown in demand. The US Dollar (DXY) strengthened by +0.44%, setting a high for this year. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) declined, and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +4.74%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +5.35%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Three of the four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant gain, advancing +2.08% to a new all-time high and helping carry the Technology sector higher. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.23% and +0.17%, closing at or above their 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) continues to sink with a -0.42% loss for today. Netflix (NFLX), Nvidia (NVDA), Cisco (CSCO), and United Health (UNH) were the top mega-caps today. Tesla (TSLA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Toyota Motor (TM ), and Alibaba (BABA) were the worst-performing mega-caps. Nvidia, Zynga (ZNGA), CloudFlare (NET), and Zscaler (ZS) were the top stocks in the daily update growth list. The Chinese stocks in the list dominated the bottom, with Alibaba (BABA), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Ehang Holdings (EH), and UP Fintech (TIGR) all having significant losses. Robinhood (HOOD) is also in the bottom four with over a 10% loss today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to .832. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into extreme fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Friday. It is a monthly options expiration day. Deere & Company (DE), Foot Locker (FL), and Buckle (BKE) are a few earnings reports to watch on a light day for earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened below 14,500 before recovering in the morning, retested the support area, and closed just under the 50d moving average line. The one-day trend line points to a +0.62% gain for Friday. The trend line from the 8/5 high points to a +0.16% gain tomorrow. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.50% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fears of early tapering and a slowing economy both weighed on investors today. The large mega-caps are helping to keep indexes up right now. Two of the largest (AAPL, GOOGL) are testing support areas, while the third (AMZN) is breaking down further. If these mega-caps start distributing, it could mean a more significant pullback or a correction for the Nasdaq. Also, keep an eye on the Russell 2000. The Index has been range-bound since February and closed just above the lower support area today. It could be the time for a turn higher, or things will get much worse if that lower support area fails. The trend for the Nasdaq continues downward with a lower low and lower high today. Expectation for tomorrow remains at Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/18Summary: Stocks slid after the Fed release meeting minutes from last month, raising fears that tapering support for the economy could come earlier than previously thought. Most sectors declined, with only Consumer Discretionary holding onto a gain for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 18, 2021 Facts: -0.89%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 61% Good: Lower volume Bad: Close below the 50d MA, sell-off before close of market Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Large red body below short upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.38, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.07%), DJI (-1.08%), RUT (-0.84%), VIX (+20.32%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.36%) and Utilities (XLU -0.51%) at the top. Health (XLV -1.52%) and Energy (XLE -2.08%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks slid after the Fed release meeting minutes from last month, raising fears that tapering support for the economy could come earlier than previously thought. Most sectors declined, with only Consumer Discretionary holding onto a gain for the day. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.89% loss, dipping just below the 50-day moving average line. Volume was lower than the previous day. The closing range of 5% is below a 61% red body. There is a short upper wick with a very tiny lower wick. There were almost three stocks declining for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.07%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.08%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was down -0.84% at the end of the day. The VIX volatility index rose +20.32%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.36%) was the only sector to gain for the day but was significantly lower at close than where it was early in the day. Utilities (XLU -0.51%) was the next best sector for the day. Health (XLV -1.52%) and Energy (XLE -2.08%) were the worst two sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Building Permits data was higher than expected, while Housing Starts was a bit lower than expected. Crude Oil Inventories showed more demand than forecast. The Fed Meeting Minutes from last month mentioned that employment might recover within this year to the required level to begin removing economic support. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.03%. The dollar fell sharply after the Fed minutes but recovered most of the loss. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield remained about the same. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined. Gold (GOLD) advanced slightly. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.24%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -0.14%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps declined. Apple (AAPL) fell -2.55% to close below its 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.80% and -0.89% but remained above the key moving average lines. Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.26%, moving farther below -1.26%. Tesla (TSLA) topped the mega-cap list today after being at the bottom of the list for the start of the week. Including Tesla, only four mega-caps gained for the day. The other three were Salesforce.com (CRM), Netflix (NFLX), and Home Depot (HD). Nvidia (NVDA), Pfizer (PFE), Oracle (ORCL), and Apple were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Robinhood (HOOD), Palantir (PTR), UP Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holding (FUTU) were at the top of the daily update growth list, which surprisingly at quite a few gainers. Peloton (PTON), Cloudflare (NET), Roku (ROKU), and Pinterest (PINS) were the biggest losers in the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.622. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into extreme fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims data will be available on Thursday morning. We'll also get the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index on Thursday. Last month, the New York and Philadelphia indexes showed different readings on manufacturing activity. Applied Materials (AMAT), Estee Lauder (EL), Ross Stores (ROST), Farfetch (FTCH), Kohls (KSS), and Macy's (M) are some of the earnings reports for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed just under the 50d moving average line. The trend line from the 8/5 high points to a sideways move with a +0.62% gain tomorrow. The one-day and five-day trend lines end with a +0.29% advance. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I doubt the content of the Fed meeting minutes was much of a surprise to most. However, it did become the catalyst that finally brought some selling momentum that seemed to be building the past week. Let's see if that was enough to get the bearishness out of the system. Based on the chart, the expectation remains Lower until the market gives us some reason to expect something different. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/17Summary: Disappointing retail sales data confirmed fears that the rising cases of the Delta variant are slowing down the economic recovery. That sent major indexes lower on Tuesday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 17, 2021 Facts: -0.93%, Volume higher, Closing range: 63%, Body: 9% Good: Stayed above 50d MA Bad: Break down below 21d EMA on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.32, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.71%), DJI (-0.79%), RUT (-1.19%), VIX (+11.24%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.18%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.15%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.37%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Disappointing retail sales data confirmed fears that the rising cases of the Delta variant are slowing down the economic recovery. That sent major indexes lower on Tuesday. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.93% loss on higher volume than the previous day. It was a distribution day as only the defensive sectors ended the day with gains. The candle has a thin red body in the upper half of the candle. The closing range is 63%, and the body only covers 9% of the candle. The lower wick is longer than the upper wick. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) broke a multi-day winning streak, declining -0.71% and -0.79% today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.19%. The VIX volatility index rose +11.24%. The defensive sectors topped the sector list for the third day. Health (XLV +1.18%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) were the best sectors of the day. Only the four defensive sectors gained for the day. At the bottom of the sector list are Materials (XLB -1.15%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.37%). The poor performance for Consumer Discretionary comes after dismal retail sales data in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Retail Sales data for July showed negative month-over-month growth. The expectation was for sales to fall, but not at such a large amount. Industrial Production was up more than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell made public comments today, expressing concern over the Delta variant's impact on the economy. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.56%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.51%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -3.87%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps declined today. Amazon (AMZN) has the most concerning chart, closing below its 200d moving average. The other three are trading above moving averages and continue to show an uptrend. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.52%, Apple (AAPL) fell -0.62%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.19%. The top four mega-caps were all health-related. Pfizer (PFE), Novo Nordisk (NVO), United Health (UNH), and AbbVie (ABBV) were the top four, all gaining more than 1%. At the bottom of the list are Tesla (TSLA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Home Depot (HD), and Alibaba (BABA). Sea Limited (SE), Peloton (PTON), Fastly (FSLY), and Etsy (ETSY) were the top gainers in the daily update growth list today. GrowGeneration (GRWG), UP Fintech (TIGR), Lemonade (LMND), and Alibaba (BABA) are at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.753. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index slipped back into the fear range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday's economic data include Building Permits and Housing Starts before the market opens. After the market opens, we'll get an update on Crude Oil Inventories. The Fed will release last month's meeting minutes in the afternoon. Tencent (TCEHY), Nvidia (NVDA), Cisco (CSCO), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Synopsys (SNPS), and Bath Body Works (BBWI) are some of the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed below the 21d EMA today but stayed above the 50d MA. The trend line from the 8/5 high points to a sideways move with a +0.01% gain tomorrow. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.12% decline. The one-day trend line points to a -0.74% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Retail Sales data confirmed fears that economic activity is slowing, as consumer sentiment data warned last week. On the other hand, Walmart reported strong revenue growth for the quarter and stated that the Delta variant isn't having any meaningful impact on business. The distribution day should bring some caution to the investor. Without some bullish news, we could see more pullback before investors start to buy the dip. The expectation for tomorrow is for Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/16Summary: Investors sold off equities in the morning and then seemingly decided there was nowhere else to put the money and bought back assets in the afternoon. Capital moved back into the market, mostly into defensive sectors, sending the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) to another set of records. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 16, 2021 Facts: -0.20%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 12% Good: Volume lower on retreat, high closing range Bad: Long lower wick pierced through 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Hanging man, small body above long lower wick within uptrend Advanced/Decline: 0.31, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.26%), DJI (+0.31%), RUT (-0.89%), VIX (+4.20%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.14%) and Utilities (XLU +0.61%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.50%) and Energy (XLE -1.84%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors sold off equities in the morning and then seemingly decided there was nowhere else to put the money and bought back assets in the afternoon. Capital moved back into the market, mostly into defensive sectors, sending the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) to another set of records. The Nasdaq closed with a decline of -0.20% after dipping more than 1.4% in the morning. Volume was lower than the previous day. The thin body above a long lower wick creates a hanging man candlestick within an uptrend. The closing range of 100% shows bulls kept up the buying into close. Still, there were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) had their fifth consecutive record close day. The S&P 500 gained +0.26% while the Dow Jones advanced +0.31%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.89% The VIX volatility index advanced +4.20%. The defensive sectors topped the sector list again today. Health (XLV +1.14%) and Utilities (XLU +0.61%) were the best sectors of the day. At the bottom of the sector list are Materials (XLB -0.50%) and Energy (XLE -1.84%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in much lower than expected, showing a slowdown in US manufacturing activity. The more important data came from China which showed a considerable slowdown in Retail Sales and Industrial Production. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.10%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.09%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.57%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps gained today, helping bring the indexes back from the morning dip. Apple (AAPL) advanced +1.35%. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +0.60%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.42%. Amazon (AMZN) dipped below its 200d moving average line but recovered to gain +0.15% by the end of the day. Eli Lilly (LLY), United Health (UNH), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and AbbVie (ABBV) were the top mega-caps for the day, all gaining over 1.5%. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list with a -4.32% decline after the US opened a safety investigation into their Autopilot system. Also at the bottom of the mega-cap list are Alibaba (BABA), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Exxon Mobil (XOM). Only a handful of stocks in the daily update growth list gained for the day. Top gainers were PayCom (PAYC), PayPal (PYPL), Facebook (FB), and D.R. Horton (DHI). The biggest losers included Chinese stocks NIO (NIO), Up Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). Robinhood (HOOD) also joins that list, with all of them losing over 5% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.671. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to Neutral, despite the selling and defensive plays today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday brings several bits of economic data. US Retail Sales data and Industrial Production data are available before the market opens. Business Inventories and Retail Inventories become available after the market opens. The Fed's Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in the early afternoon. Adding to the Retail economic data, Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and Sea Limited (SE) have earnings reports in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq pierced the 21d EMA today but then rallied to close above the key moving average line. The one-day regression trend line points to a gain since most of the day is an uptrend after the morning dip. The trend-line ends with a +0.77% gain for Tuesday. The trend from the 7/19 low points to a +0.64% gain. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.34% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The economic data from China turned the market to a bearish mood this morning. But that mood didn't last long as investors bought the dip, putting money into defensive sectors and big tech. There is still some fear in the market. However, there are not many places for investors to put money other than equities, and it happens that there is a lot of money to be put somewhere these days. The hanging man candlestick within an uptrend signals a possible move lower. Combined with the doji star on Friday, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
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