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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 7/7Summary: Investors rotated back to cyclical stocks after they underperformed yesterday. Mega-caps also did well on a day with no huge surprises in economic news. Jobs data was a bit lower than expected, but not bad, and there were no unexpected statements in the Fed minutes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 7, 2021 Facts: +0.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 28%, Body: 51% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Couldn't hold morning high, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large red body with no upper wick, lower wick created from a morning dip Advanced/Decline: 0.33, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.34%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-0.95%), VIX (-1.46%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.04%) and Industrials (XLI +1.00%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.15%) and Energy (XLE -1.63%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors rotated back to cyclical stocks after they underperformed yesterday. Mega-caps also did well on a day with no huge surprises in economic news. Jobs data was a bit lower than expected, but not bad, and there were no unexpected statements in the Fed minutes. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.01% gain, carried mainly by mega-caps. There continues to be a much higher number of declining stocks than advancing stocks, with a ratio of 3 to 1 today. The closing range of 28% follows a morning gap-up that quickly sold off to create a long lower wick. The index recovered some of the loss, leaving a 51% red body over the long lower wick. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fared better with +0.34% and +0.30% gains today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.95%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.46%. Cyclical sectors moved back to the top of the sector list, with Materials (XLB +1.04%) and Industrials (XLI +1.00%) leading the day. Communications (XLC -0.15%) and Energy (XLE -1.63%) were at the bottom of today's list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.17% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields continue to decline as the gap between long-term and short-term yields tighten. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) remained flat while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) continues to decline off recent highs. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.53%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +0.04%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.629. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving further from neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps continue to advance with gains today, but the charts start to look overly extended from moving averages. Apple (AAPL) gained another +1.80% today, setting a record close. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.82%. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) had advances but could not hold onto intraday gains, ending the day with +0.57% and +0.23% gains. Oracle (ORCL) topped the mega-cap list today, with Apple (AAPL), PayPal (PYPL), and Adobe (ADBE) filling out the top four. At the bottom of the list are Exxon Mobile (XOM), Nvidia (NVDA), Alibaba (BABA), and Tesla (TSLA). The majority of the daily update growth list lost for the day. However, there were several gainers with SUMO Digital (SUMO), Snowflake (SNOW), RH (RH), and D.R. Horton (DHI) topping the list. At the bottom of the list are Lemonade (LMND), GrowGeneration (GRWG), NIO (NIO), and Ehang Holdings (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims and weekly Crude Oil Inventories data will be available on Thursday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Just as yesterday, the Nasdaq set a new all-time high after opening but then sold off quickly. The five-day trend line points to a +0.49% gain for Thursday. The trend line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.16% gain. The one-day trend line is downward sloping and points to a -0.04% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up As rotations go, yesterday's sell-off of cyclical sectors became today's buying opportunity. Big tech mega-caps are mainly driving the gains in the Nasdaq. The advance/decline ratio hasn't been over 1.0 since 6/24. With increasing volatility in the intraday chart and the advance/decline ratio remaining low, it’s a good time for caution. However, the index continues to ride the mid-point of an upward regression trend channel from 5/12, so more gains could be ahead. The expectation is set for sideways or lower tomorrow. Surprise me. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 7/6Summary: It was a roller-coaster day for the market as prices dipped in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. Investors reacted to the Purchasing Managers index data that indicates the economic recovery may be slowing. Although the Nasdaq could finish the day with a small gain, most stocks across the index declined for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 6, 2021 Facts: +0.17%, Volume higher, Closing range: 85%, Body: 1% Good: High closing range, long lower wick shows recovery from dip Bad: Volatile outside day with doji star candle, bearish pattern Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Doji star candle with longer lower wick, outside day Advanced/Decline: 0.3, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.20%), DJI (-0.60%), RUT (-1.36%), VIX (+9.08%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.89%) and Utilities (XLU +0.42%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.75%) and Energy (XLE -3.25%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a roller-coaster day for the market as prices dipped in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. Investors reacted to the Purchasing Managers index data that indicates the economic recovery may be slowing. Although the Nasdaq could finish the day with a small gain, most stocks across the index declined for the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.17% gain, beginning the day with a gap at open but quickly selling off in the morning. Eventually, the bulls came in and brought the index back just above where it opened. The volume was higher than the previous day, and the mid-day reversal ended with a high 85% closing range. The close, being just above the open, created a slim 1% body. The outside day, doji star candle signals a bearish reversal pattern. Despite the gain in the index, there were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the day with a -0.20% loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) retreated -0.60%. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.36%. The VIX volatility index rose +9.08% for the day. It was up almost 20% intraday. Real Estate (XLRE +0.89%) and Utilities (XLU +0.42%) were the top sectors, signaling a defensive stance from investors. Interestingly, the growth sectors of Technology (XLK +0.38%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.12%) were the only other two sectors to gain for the day, helping the Nasdaq finish higher. Financials (XLF -1.57%) and Energy (XLE -3.25%) were the only two declining sectors. The Financial sector is down as yields on the 10y Treasury Note continue to drop, bringing interest rates down and taking away revenue potential for big banks. The Energy sector dropped as OPEC was unable to get agreement from Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. on output. The disagreement is bringing volatility to the sector that investors likely want to avoid. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced -0.34% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields dropped to their lowest point since February. The 2y Treasury yield also declined today, but not as much as longer-term yields, tightening the gap. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined, Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose +1.16%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +5.27%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.694. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving further from neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders To find out what made the index move up, look no further than the four largest mega-caps. Amazon (AMZN) had a massive gain of +4.69% after the Pentagon decided to cancel the exclusive $10b cloud contract with Microsoft and split it across major cloud providers, including Amazon. It wasn't great news for Microsoft (MSFT), but the tech giant avoided a significant loss, closing with a 0% daily move. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.47% for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.74%. Amazon (AMZN) topped the mega-cap list, followed by Oracle (ORCL), which also stands to benefit from the new opportunities in government cloud contracts. Apple (AAPL) and Netflix (NFLX) were third and fourth best performers on the list. It was a day for big tech, while most mega-caps gained for the day. Only Oracle (ORCL) topped the four largest mega-caps in daily gains, advancing +2.87%. Alibaba (BABA), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), and Berkshire Hathaway (NRK) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the list were Bank of America (BAC), Alibaba (BABA), Tesla (TSLA), and Exxon Mobil (XOM). Despite the low advance/decline ratio, the daily update growth list had plenty of winners. At the top of the list are GrowGeneration (GRWG), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Chewy (CHWY), and Zscaler (ZS), all with greater than 4% gains. Chinese stocks dominated the bottom of the list as the Chinese government cracks down on Didi and has its eyes on more regulation of Internet companies. JD.com (JD), Ehang Holdings (EH), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), and UP Fintech (TIGR) all lost more than 5% for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The JOLTs Job Openings report for May will be available on Wednesday morning. In the afternoon, the FOMC will release the meeting minutes from last month. Investors will be interested to see what concerns remain around inflation and employment. The API Weekly Crude Oil stock comes after the market close. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new all-time high before dipping in the morning. The mid-day upside reversal came above the 14,500 support area. All three trend lines point to nearly the same place, with a decline between -0.03% and -0.22%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The ISM purchasing managers index data released today showed that the economic recovery might be slowing. That is a bad sign for cyclicals. But is it a good sign for big tech and growth stocks? It could be. If the recovery is slowing but still progressing, that will take some inflationary pressures out of the picture. It will also keep interest rates lower in the near term. Inflation and high-interest rates are the biggest evil for technology and growth stocks. The ISM reading today was at 60.1 compared to an expectation of 63.5. The lower-than-expected reading is indicating a more slowly expanding economy. But the reading above 50 indicates the economy is still expanding. If you disregard the last three exceptional months, the last time the indicator was above 60 was in 2018. Still, it does not mean these sectors shield investors from a slowdown in the recovery. Investors will be looking at the Fed meeting minutes released tomorrow for any clues on monetary policy changes. Those hints of changes amid a shift in the economic picture could spread the worries further into the market. Based on the candle, the expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Market Week in Review - 6/28/2021 - 7/2/2021Summary: The market added another week of record closes across the major indexes while the Nasdaq continued a power trend which is in its twelfth day. Investors were not without worries this week. Their attention was on the pandemic at the beginning of the week. However, it turned to the employment data at the end of the week. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 28, 2021 Facts: +0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 95%, Body: 94% Good: Very bullish candle on sets a new all-time high Bad: Lower volume, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with no lower wick, small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.59, three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.23%), DJI (-0.44%), RUT (-0.52%), VIX (+0.90%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.13%) and Technology (XLK +1.05%) at top. Financials (XLF -0.73%) and Energy (XLE -2.28%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher today, setting more records, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 took a step back. New fears of pandemic lockdowns in Asia sent Energy and Industrial stocks lower. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.98% gain, producing a bullish green candle that is primarily green body with no lower wick and a small upper wick. Volume was lower than Friday, but Friday's volume was exceptionally high. The closing range of 95% shows bullish support into the close. Other than a slight dip in the early afternoon, investors were in a buying mood all day. Still, there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 29, 2021 Facts: +0.19%, Volume higher, Closing range: 88%, Body: 30% Good: Green candle on higher volume, great closing range Bad: The low A/D line Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body in the upper half of the candle, longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.43, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.03%), DJI (+0.03%), RUT (-0.58%), VIX (+1.78%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.73%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.25%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.54%) and Utilities (XLU -1.62%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Consumer confidence numbers helped send Apple and Microsoft higher and drive gains in the Nasdaq. The gains were not spread broadly across the index, with more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Nasdaq finished with a +0.19% gain after dipping in the morning. The dip created a longer lower wick, under a 30% green body that ended the day with a 88% closing range. The higher volume did not translate into broad gains. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 30, 2021 Facts: -0.17%, Volume higher, Closing range: 53%, Body: 12% Good: Higher low Bad: Lower high, thin red body, higher volume on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Indecisive candle with a thin red body in between two equal wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.58, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.13%), DJI (+0.61%), RUT (+0.07%), VIX (-1.19%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.24%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.78%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.19%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways Solid economic recovery data sent the cyclical sectors higher today while other sectors saw modest gains. Data included positive Nonfarm Employment change, Pending Home Sales, and Crude Oil Inventories. After an indecisive candle yesterday, the S&P 500 set a new record to close the quarter. The Nasdaq finished with a -0.17% decline on higher volume. The closing range of 53% is right at the middle of the candle, with a thin 12% red body in the middle of equal length wicks. The "spinning top" candle signals indecision in the market, where both buyers and sellers are active during the trading session. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 1, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing range: 88%, Body: 30% Good: High closing range after morning dip, higher high Bad: Dip below 14,500 creating lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bullish outside day follows an inside day, signals continuation Advanced/Decline: 0.80, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (+0.38%), RUT (+0.81%), VIX (-2.34%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.74%) and Utilities (XLU +1.09%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.17%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways While major indexes advanced for the day, there was some caution in the market as investors await the jobs data coming on Friday. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.13% gain after dipping in the morning. The morning dip created a long lower wick for the candle and a lower low for the day compared to the previous day. However, the index recovered and also created a new high. The body is 30% longer than the previous day, creating a bullish outside day. That is typically a continuation pattern in an uptrend but will need to be confirmed tomorrow after the jobs data. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 2, 2021 Facts: +0.81%, Volume lower, Closing range: 92% (w/gap), Body: 60% Good: High closing range, large green body, higher high, higher low Bad: Lower volume, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up with higher high and higher low Advanced/Decline: 0.39, five declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.75%), DJI (+0.44%), RUT (-1.01%), VIX (-2.52%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.32) and Health (XLV +0.96) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.11%) and Energy (XLE -0.22%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The market gave a big yes to the jobs data but focused investors on mega-caps and leaving small-caps behind. Volume was low, and trading was concentrated into big tech, sending the Technology sector higher. Three of the major indexes had record closes. The Nasdaq closed at another all-time high with a +0.81% advance. The day was dominated by buyers, producing a 60% green body and 92% closing range with the gap at open. However, volume was lower than the previous day, and there were five declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week The market added another week of record closes across the major indexes while the Nasdaq continued a power trend which is in its twelfth day. Investors were not without worries this week. Their attention was on the pandemic at the beginning of the week. However, it turned to the employment data at the end of the week. Monday opened the week with some fear from a resurgence in covid cases in Asia. The Utilities competed with Technology as the top sector in the morning. The contrast between growth and defensive moves showed a mixed attitude toward the rise in cases. Energy sunk as some countries reinstated travel bans. The Utilities sector quickly faded as fears melted away. On Monday afternoon, a judge threw out an antitrust case brought by regulators against Facebook. That not only sent Facebook and the Communications sector higher, but it was a boon for big tech companies also facing similar scrutiny. The win for big tech helped send the growth sectors higher throughout the week. Consumer Confidence numbers on Tuesday were another positive for growth stocks. Consumer Confidence is at a post-pandemic high as US citizens see improving conditions heading into the summer months. The numbers surprised wall street and helped further put pandemic worries behind for the week. The gains on the first two days of the week came with a diverging advance/decline line. The advance/decline line is the ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks. If the index is moving higher, we will ideally see the ratio near or above 1.0, meaning more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The divergence on Monday and Tuesday, specifically the A/D ratio moving lower, signaled a potential pullback. That happened on Wednesday and continued into Thursday morning. After dipping below 14,500 on Thursday morning, it seemed the market turned toward employment data. Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday looked better than expected. Anticipation of positive news on Friday was enough to bring the Nasdaq back above the 14,500 support area. Still, some investors took defensive positions, sending the Utilities sector higher. There are some key things to note in the employment data released on Friday that sent all the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq to record closes. First, the Private Nonfarm Payrolls were much higher than expected, meaning businesses are adding jobs faster than previously expected. Second, Average Hourly Earnings was lower than expected. Between the two, we can say that people are starting to go back to work, requiring more minor wage increases to attract people back into the workforce. Higher wages are a critical factor in making inflation permanent instead of transitory. Seeing that businesses are getting people back to work with less pressure on wages is good news for investors worried about inflation and a possible earlier-than-planned Fed reaction. Not only can you see the investor reaction in the stock indexes, but you can also see it in the lowering yields on longer-term Treasuries. The Nasdaq advanced +1.94% this week, setting another record high. Volume was much lower than the previous week and lower than average for this year. The low this week is higher than the high of the previous week. The closing range of 96% is excellent. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost +1.23% this week after outperforming the other indexes in the previous week. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.67%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +1.02%. The VIX volatility declined -3.50% for the week and closed the week at a post-pandemic low. Technology ( XLK ) led the sector list this week, propelled higher by strong economic data and significant gains by big tech. Communications ( XLC ) led briefly on Monday after a judge threw out two cases brought against Facebook. The decision was a blow to regulators and a boon to several tech mega-caps facing similar challenges. Utilities ( XLU ) also led at the beginning of the week but quickly retreated and ended the week at a loss. Energy ( XLE ) had a volatile start to the week due to increased pandemic fears. The continued demand for Oil, driving prices higher, eventually brought investors back to the sector. However, it wasn't enough to lift the sector out of the bottom position in the sector list. The three secular growth sectors outperformed the broader S&P 500 index this week, while cyclical sectors underperformed. Treasury yields on the 30y, 10y, and 2y all declined for the day. However, the gap between longer-term yields (7y and longer) and shorter-term yields (2y and 3y) continues to tighten. The signal could be that investors see inflationary pressures as short-term. The market agrees with the Fed that inflation is transitory. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced, showing confidence in US businesses. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.47% for the week. Silver (SILVER) advanced +1.46%, and Gold (GOLD) advanced +0.39%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +1.71% and surpassed its 2018 peak. Timber (WOOD) advanced +1.37%. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +0.07%. Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +3.34%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps The largest four mega-caps all advanced this week. Apple (AAPL) soared +5.15% higher. Microsoft (MSFT) set another record high with a +4.77% gain. Amazon (AMZN) climbed by +3.22%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +2.24%. All four are trading well above their 10-week moving average lines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Pandemic fears sent the four recovery stocks lower this week. Marriott (MAR) was able to recover and close the week with a +0.80%. Delta (DAL) tested the 40-week moving average line before recovering some losses and ending the week with a -0.63% decline. Exxon Mobile (XOM) lost -2.30% this week. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) had the most significant loss among the four, dropping -7.36% for the week. The company launched its first cruise since the pandemic began on Saturday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). Ethereum (ETHUSD) had the best week with a +17.05% gain. It is the only of the four trading above the 40-week moving average. Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) closed right at the 40-week line with a +10.30% advance this week. Litecoin (LTCUSD) gained +9.25%. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to underperform with a +1.66% advance this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved higher, ending the week at 0.617. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is on the fear side but moving toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 91.72 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update next week. A quiet period before the Financial sector kicks off earnings season the following week. Monday Markets are closed on Monday for the July 4th holiday. Tuesday Tuesday will open the trading week with Purchasing Managers Index data for Services and Non-Manufacturing Employment. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Tuesday. Wednesday The JOLTs Job Openings report for May will be available on Wednesday morning. In the afternoon, the FOMC will release the meeting minutes from last month. Investors will be interested to see what concerns remain around inflation and employment. The API Weekly Crude Oil stock comes after the market close. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Wednesday. Thursday Initial Jobless Claims and weekly Crude Oil Inventories data will be available on Thursday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Thursday. Friday The Fed will release its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report on Friday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side The same bullish signals from last week continue into this week. Economic data throughout the week only strengthened the bullish outlook and helped the Nasdaq continue its power trend. The S&P 500 is also nearing the criteria for a power trend. One of the most significant indications that investors are no longer worried about inflation is in the performance of both Corporate and Treasury bonds. Corporate interest rates remain low as investors are confident in the near-term performance of US businesses. Yields on mid-term Treasuries are rising relative to longer-term Treasuries, while overall yields remain low. Bond investors see inflation as only a short-term problem. The coming week has few influential earnings reports and only a couple of important items on the economic calendar. While investors anticipate a strong earnings season overall, this week will be an excellent time to get positioned for growth. Clearly from the Growth/Value chart, investors are moving back into Growth. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side It's another light week on economic news and earnings, providing very little to be bearish about in the data. Still, after a few weeks of gains into record closes, it would not be a surprise if the market pulls back a bit or pauses. This past week ended with a lopsided rotation into the largest tech mega-caps that drove indexes higher. Expect some rotation the other way gains spread out across the market before the indexes head much higher. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq found support at 14,500 this week, closing at new all-time highs. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was a new all-time high at 14,649.11. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,724 by the end of the week. On the downside, there are a few key levels: 14,500 is a support area developed from three days of sideways trading this week. The 10d MA is at 14,409.11. The low of this past week is 14,417.20. The 21d EMA is at 14,231.69. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The 50d MA is at 13,880.92. There is a pivot at 13,548.93. This is a "higher low" in the current uptrend. There is a support area at 13,000. 13,002.54 is a pivot from May. Below this level is a correction. 12950.85 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This week confirmed a bullish thesis for growth stocks and the Nasdaq. While valuations remain high, there still seems to be quite a lot of support for US bonds and equities. That's likely coming from a more robust recovery among US businesses than in other countries globally, especially those countries still struggling to reopen after a rise in Delta variant cases. With the indexes all at record highs, investors will be watching for any signals that the rally is ending. Those aren't likely to come from scheduled events like earnings reports or the economic calendar. Instead, they may come from a surprise turn in the pandemic or another unexpected event. In the meantime, follow price. Trade safe, but don't miss out on the gains. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 7/2Summary: The market gave a big yes to the jobs data but focused investors on mega-caps and leaving small-caps behind. Volume was low, and trading was concentrated into big tech, sending the Technology sector higher. Three of the major indexes had record closes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 2, 2021 Facts: +0.81%, Volume lower, Closing range: 92% (w/gap), Body: 60% Good: High closing range, large green body, higher high, higher low Bad: Lower volume, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up with higher high and higher low Advanced/Decline: 0.39, five declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.75%), DJI (+0.44%), RUT (-1.01%), VIX (-2.52%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.32) and Health (XLV +0.96) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.11%) and Energy (XLE -0.22%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market gave a big yes to the jobs data but focused investors on mega-caps and leaving small-caps behind. Volume was low, and trading was concentrated into big tech, sending the Technology sector higher. Three of the major indexes had record closes. The Nasdaq closed at another all-time high with a +0.81% advance. The day was dominated by buyers, producing a 60% green body and 92% closing range with the gap at open. However, volume was lower than the previous day, and there were five declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also had record-high closes, advancing +0.75% and +0.44%, respectively. Small-caps and the Russell 2000 (RUT) did not do so well, with the index declining -1.01% for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -2.52%. Technology (XLK +1.32) and Health (XLV +0.96) were the top sectors for the day. Financials (XLF -0.11%) and Energy (XLE -0.22%) were the only two declining sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.31% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined today. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose +0.74%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.24%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.617. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, close to neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps all had considerable gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +2.30%. Amazon (AMZN) rose +2.27%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +2.23%. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.96%. It was a day for big tech, while most mega-caps gained for the day. Only Oracle (ORCL) topped the four largest mega-caps in daily gains, advancing +2.87%. Alibaba (BABA), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), and Berkshire Hathaway (NRK) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The daily update growth stock list was a mix of gainers and losers. Top gainers included Paycom (PAYC), Upwork (UPWK), DataDog (DDOG), and Enphase(ENPH). Digital Turbine (APPS), Lemonade (LMND), Fastly (FSLY), and UP Fintech (TIGR) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Monday for the July 4th holiday. Tuesday will open the trading week with Purchasing Managers Index data for Services and Non-Manufacturing Employment. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update next week. A quiet period before the Financial sector kicks off earnings season the following week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued to push the ATH line higher, closing Friday near the mark. The one-day trend line points to a +0.42% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend-line and trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a -0.24% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The jobs data put investors focus on the big mega-caps for Friday, advancing the largest cap stocks while rotating out of the smaller cap stocks. Lop-sided rotations are typically reversed in the following days, either by the rest of the market catching up or by the market pulling back some before advancing again. Based on the chart, the expectation is for higher or sideways on Tuesday. However, the index may want to come back down to the 14,500 area, filling today's opening gap and building more support before moving up. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/1Summary: While major indexes advanced for the day, there was some caution in the market as investors await the jobs data coming on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 1, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing range: 88%, Body: 30% Good: High closing range after morning dip, higher high Bad: Dip below 14,500 creating lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bullish outside day follows an inside day, signals continuation Advanced/Decline: 0.80, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (+0.38%), RUT (+0.81%), VIX (-2.34%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.74%) and Utilities (XLU +1.09%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.17%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) were at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview While major indexes advanced for the day, there was some caution in the market as investors await the jobs data coming on Friday. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.13% gain after dipping in the morning. The morning dip created a long lower wick for the candle and a lower low for the day compared to the previous day. However, the index recovered and also made a new high. The body is 30% and longer than the previous day, creating a bullish outside day. That is typically a continuation pattern in an uptrend but will need to be confirmed tomorrow after the jobs data. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other major indexes today, gaining +0.81%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.52%, setting yet another record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.38%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.34%. Energy (XLE +1.74%) was at the top of the sector list. Utilities (XLU +1.09%) and Health (XLV +0.89%) were second and third, signaling some defensiveness in the market. Technology (XLK +0.17%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.19% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined, Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -4.20%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -7.41%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.561. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 91.72. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined for the day, losing -0.21%. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.29%. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +0.26% and Apple (AAPL) gained +0.23%. Nike (NKE), Oracle (ORCL), Facebook (FB), and Mastercard (MA) were the top mega-cap gainers. The top losers for mega-caps were Walmart (WMT), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), ASML Holding (ASML), and Alibaba (BABA). The majority of growth stocks in the daily update list were losers for the day. The biggest gainers were GrowGeneration (GRWG), Lemonade (LMND), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Paycom (PAYC). The biggest losers were Roku (ROKU), Palantir (PLTR), UP Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holding (FUTU). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More economic data becomes available on Friday. Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate will provide insights into the labor market recovery. Trade Balance data will also be released. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped below the 14,500 support area in the morning. However, it closed back above the area by the end of the session. The five-day trend-line and trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.34% advance for Friday. The one-day trend line results in a -0.02% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up All eyes this week are on Friday's job data. It seems the Nasdaq will decide which direction to move after seeing the data. With the morning dip resulting in buying that brought the index back above 14,500, the expectation is sideways or higher tomorrow. However, the jobs data may just bust that expectation. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/30Summary: Solid economic recovery data sent the cyclical sectors higher today while other sectors saw modest gains. Data included positive Nonfarm Employment change, Pending Home Sales, and Crude Oil Inventories. After an indecisive candle yesterday, the S&P 500 set a new record to close the quarter. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 30, 2021 Facts: -0.17%, Volume higher, Closing range: 53%, Body: 12% Good: Higher low Bad: Lower high, thin red body, higher volume on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Indecisive candle with a thin red body in between two equal wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.58, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.13%), DJI (+0.61%), RUT (+0.07%), VIX (-1.19%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.24%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.78%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.19%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Solid economic recovery data sent the cyclical sectors higher today while other sectors saw modest gains. Data included positive Nonfarm Employment change, Pending Home Sales, and Crude Oil Inventories. After an indecisive candle yesterday, the S&P 500 set a new record to close the quarter. The Nasdaq finished with a -0.17% decline on higher volume. The closing range of 53% is right at the middle of the candle, with a thin 12% red body in the middle of equal length wicks. The "spinning top" candle signals indecision in the market, where both buyers and sellers are active during the trading session. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 (SPX) had a similar indecisive spinning top candle yesterday but made a positive move to close the quarter at an all-time high, advancing +0.13% today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.61%, thanks to a resurgence in cyclical stocks and recovery stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.07%. The VIX volatility index advanced -1.19%. Energy (XLE +1.24%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.78%) topped the sector list, while the next three were the other cyclical sectors. Utilities (XLU -0.19%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.78%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.31% for the day. The US 30y Treasury yield gained white the 10y stayed the same, and the 2y declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices gained slightly while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) retreated from record highs. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +4.12%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.84%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.557. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) gained +0.46%, the only of the four largest mega-caps to advance today. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.15%. Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.18%. Amazon (AMZN) fell -0.23%. All remained above the key moving average lines. Walmart (WMT) gained +2.71% today, topping the mega-cap list and helping send the Consumer Staples sector higher. Walt Disney (DIS), Chevron (CVX), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) were the next three best performers in the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the list are Abbot Labs (ABT), Alibaba (BABA), Facebook (FB), and ASML Holding (ASML). On the daily update growth list, most stocks declined for the day. The top winners include NIO (NIO), Roku (ROKU), Ehang Holdings (EH), and Etsy (ETSY). At the bottom of the list are DoorDash (DASH), which topped the list yesterday, Workday (WDAY), Fiverr (FVRR), and MongoDB (MDB). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday's economic data includes Initial Jobless Claims and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Walgreens Boots (WBA) releases earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance There seems that support is forming at 14,500. The index has only been above the area for two days, but there were four tests of the support intraday today. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.54% gain for Thursday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.24% advance. The one-day trend line results in a +0.06% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seemed yesterday that the momentum was waning in tech and growth stocks that dominate the Nasdaq. So it was time today for cyclical sectors to get some attention. The rotation was not oversized and did not fundamentally change uptrends for the index or the big mega-caps. Based on the indecisive candle, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. The market needs to decide if it wants to go higher or lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/29Summary: Consumer confidence numbers helped send Apple and Microsoft higher and drive gains in the Nasdaq. The gains were not spread broadly across the index, with more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 29, 2021 Facts: +0.19%, Volume higher, Closing range: 88%, Body: 30% Good: Green candle on higher volume, great closing range Bad: The low A/D line Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body in the upper half of the candle, longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.43, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.03%), DJI (+0.03%), RUT (-0.58%), VIX (+1.78%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.73%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.25%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.54%) and Utilities (XLU -1.62%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer confidence numbers helped send Apple and Microsoft higher and drive gains in the Nasdaq. The gains were not spread broadly across the index, with more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Nasdaq finished with a +0.19% gain after dipping in the morning. The dip created a longer lower wick, under a 30% green body that ended the day with a 88% closing range. The higher volume did not translate into broad gains. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) both gained a modest +0.03%. The spinning top candle on the SPX is indicating indecision in the market. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.58% for the day. The VIX volatility index advanced +1.78%. Technology (XLK +0.73%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.25%) were at the top of the sector list with only one other sector, Health (XLV +011%), ending the day with gains. Communications (XLC -0.54%) and Utilities (XLU -1.62%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.21% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Aluminum is back to all-time highs. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +4.12%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.84%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.524. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) drove much of the significant gains in the index, with +1.15% and +1.00% advances. Amazon (AMZN) also gained for the day with a +0.12% advance. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -0.22%. All four are trading above key moving average lines and considered in uptrends. Nike (NKE), Abbot Labs (ABT), Home Depot (HD), and Apple (AAPL) led the mega-cap list, which is about 50% gainers. At the bottom of the list are Tesla (TSLA), Intel (INTC), Walt Disney (DIS), and Bank of America (BAC). The daily update growth stock list has DoorDash (DASH), Upwork (UPWK), JD.com (JD), and UP Fintech (TIGR) at the top of the list with greater than 3% gains. At the bottom of the growth list are MongoDB (MDB), Palantir (PLTR), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Ehang Holdings (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead This week's closely watched employment data starts to come in on Wednesday. It begins with an update on Nonfarm Employment before the market opens. In addition, pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories are available after the market open. Meme stock, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), will release earnings on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued to move higher today. It's hard to judge support areas without a retest, but there could be support at 14,350 if the index pulls back. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.39% gain for Wednesday. The one-day trend line results in a +0.21% gain. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a -0.23% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The tech-heavy Nasdaq continues to march higher thanks to the mega-caps today and good consumer confidence numbers. However, after two days of gains contrasted with a declining A/D line, the expectation is or sideways or lower tomorrow. The counter to those inputs is the higher volume on the gain today. That could translate to investors spreading out investments tomorrow, a higher A/D line, and possibly another move higher. Add in variability in that it's the last day of the quarter, and we start a new earnings season expected to show strength. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/28Summary: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher today, setting more records, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 took a step back. New fears of pandemic lockdowns in Asia sent Energy and Industrial stocks lower. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 28, 2021 Facts: +0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 95%, Body: 94% Good: Very bullish candle on sets a new all-time high Bad: Lower volume, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with no lower wick, small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.59, three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.23%), DJI (-0.44%), RUT (-0.52%), VIX (+0.90%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.13%) and Technology (XLK +1.05%) at top. Financials (XLF -0.73%) and Energy (XLE -2.28%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher today, setting more records, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 took a step back. New fears of pandemic lockdowns in Asia sent Energy and Industrial stocks lower. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.98% gain, producing a bullish green candle that is primarily green body with no lower wick and a small upper wick. Volume was lower than Friday, but Friday's volume was exceptionally high. The closing range of 95% shows bullish support into the close. Other than a slight dip in the early afternoon, investors were in a buying mood all day. Still, there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.23%, carried higher by big tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.44%, weighed down by the Energy and Industrial sectors. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.52%, following through with a bearish candle on Friday that produced a long upper wick. The VIX volatility index advanced +0.90%. Communications (XLC +1.13%) and Technology (XLK +1.05%) were the top-performing sectors for the day. Utilities (XLU +0.64%) led briefly in the morning before being overtaken by Technology. Communications took the lead late in the day after a judge threw out antitrust cases by the FTC against Facebook. Financials (XLF -0.73%) and Energy (XLE -2.28%) were at the bottom of today's sector list. Industrials (XLI -0.53%) were also near the bottom. New pandemic lockdown fears impacted the three sectors. It is also likely that investors are taking profits in these sectors to close the quarter. They are also moving back into growth stocks which analysts expect to have strong quarterly results. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.08% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined just slightly for the day. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.61%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced -5.00%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.574. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Although Alphabet (GOOGL) struggled to end with a +0.2% advance, all four largest mega-caps had gains for the day. Alphabet gained in the afternoon along with the Communications sector by the Facebook news. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) had identical gains of +1.25%. Finally, Microsoft (MSFT) ticked off another new all-time high and closed with a +1.40% gain. Nvidia (NVDA), Facebook (FB), Intel (INTC), and Abbot Labs (ABT) topped the mega-cap list. Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Exxon Mobile (XOM), and Chevron (CVX) were at the bottom of the list. Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list advanced. Ehang Holdings (EH) and Grow Generation (GRWG) topped the list with greater than 11% gains. NIO (NIO) and Etsy (ETSY) were also in the top four. At the bottom of the list were Penn National Gaming (PENN), JD.com (JD), SNAP (SNAP), and Sumo Digital (SUMO). Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) lost -7.04%. Delta Airlines (DAL) declined -2.95%. Avis (CAR) dropped -3.15%. That's representative of the new pandemic lockdown fears impacting these recovery stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Confidence numbers for June will be released on Tuesday, after the market open. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq had a small gap up today and a solid move above 14,500. That area may need to be tested again before going higher. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.29% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line results in a +0.12% gain. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a -0.34% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We saw today a strong follow-thru of last week's gains in the Nasdaq. Big tech and growth stocks drove the small gap-up and all-day bullish activity, but stocks did not broadly share the gains. The decliners outnumbering the advancers was likely due to the pandemic fears and some investors taking profits as the quarter ends. Based on the chart, the expectation is for sideways or higher tomorrow. However, the pandemic fears won't resolve overnight, and there may be more profit-taking as the quarter ends. Nevertheless, the moves into big tech and growth stocks should hold as investors made those moves in anticipation of a strong quarterly earnings season which is still a few weeks off for those companies. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 6/21/2021 - 6/25/2021Summary: It was a great week across all major indexes. The week opened with a gain on Monday that erased losses from the prior Friday. Once investors had a chance to absorb the new Fed hawkish stance and get past a quadruple witching day, they were ready to push back into growth stocks and see the markets another step upward. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 21, 2021 Facts: +0.79%, Volume higher, Closing range: 95%, Body: 49% Good: Higher high, long lower wick from bullish rebound off morning low Bad: Lower low, otherwise not much Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Half green body with long lower wick, small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.03, One advancing stock for each declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.40%), DJI (+1.76%), RUT (+2.16%), VIX (-13.66%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.21%) and Financials (XLF +1.93%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Investors moved back into equities on Monday, helping markets rebound from Friday's sell-off. All major indexes and sectors moved higher while stocks ended the day balanced across gains and losses. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.79% gain. The volume was lower than Friday's unusually high volume. The 49% body is in the upper half of the candle, above a long lower wick formed just after the market open. The index dropped after open, but found support around 14,000 and moved higher the rest of the day. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 22, 2021 Facts: +0.79%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89%, Body: 77% Good: New all-time high, thick green body, small wicks Bad: A/D ratio, lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with short upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.74, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.51%), DJI (+0.20%), RUT (+0.43%), VIX (-6.77%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.94%) and Technology (XLK +0.91%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher It was a record-setting day for the Nasdaq, setting a new all-time high for the first time since April. The other major indexes also had good gains for the day, while the sector list mainly was positive. Investors responded to better than expected existing home sales data and no new surprises from Fed Jerome Powell's testimony to congress. The Nasdaq gained +0.79% for the day and finished the day with its highest close since April. The closing range of 89% and 77% green body represents a bullish session that only paused mid-day to await Powell's comments. Despite the bullish day, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 23, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing range: 36%, Body: 12% Good: New high, A/D over 1.0 Bad: Low closing range, weak volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body in the lower half of candle Advanced/Decline: 1.04, About the same number of advancing and declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.11%), DJI (-0.21%), RUT (+0.33%), VIX (-2.16%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.77%) and Energy (XLE +0.28%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.64%) and Utilities (XLU -1.06%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Mixed economic data seemed to bring mixed reactions in the market today. The result is a day of slim gains across the market while the indices pause after a couple of days of gains. The Nasdaq gained +0.13%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The thin 12% body is in the lower half of the candle, resulting in a 36% closing range. The longer upper wick was formed in a rally just after the market opened, but the index could not hold onto the gains. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 24, 2021 Facts: +0.69%, Volume lower, Closing range: 54% (w/gap), Body: 15% Good: Low above yesterday's high creates bullish rising window, high A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body near middle of candle, gap up at open, longer upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.79, Three gaining stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.58%), DJI (+0.95%), RUT (+1.31%), VIX (-2.15%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.25%) and Communications (XLC +0.94%) at top. Utilities (XLU -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.47%) at bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record closes today, and gains were broad across sectors and stocks. The Russell 2000 also had gains ahead of the $10 trillion-dollar rebalancing happening this weekend. The Nasdaq opened the day with a gap-up and ended with a +0.69% gain. Like yesterday, it could not hold an intraday high set mid-day, retreating near the opening price. The 15% green body is under a 54% closing range. The two-day rising window pattern is a bullish continuation pattern. Three stocks advanced for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 25, 2021 Facts: -0.06%, Volume higher, Closing range: 32%, Body: 57% Good: Sideways trading with the high/low range of previous day Bad: Lower high, drop on high volume, thick red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, mostly red body with small upper and lower wicks, lower wick is slightly longer Advanced/Decline: 0.91, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.33%), DJI (+0.69%), RUT (+0.03%), VIX (-2.19%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.21%) and Utilities (XLU +1.07%) at top. Materials (XLB +0.01%) and Technology (XLK -0.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The S&P 500 closed at another record on Friday while the Nasdaq couldn't make new gains. Economic data is sending mixed signals on the progress of the recovery. For example, while higher than the previous month, consumer data was not as high as analysts expected. The Nasdaq traded inside the previous day's high and low range and closed lower by the end of the day. The 57y% red body is in the upper part of the candle. The index formed the longer lower wick in morning volatility that set the intraday high and intraday low within the first hour of the trading session. The closing range of 32% is low. The big spike in volume was due to the Russell 3000 rebalancing activity. As a result, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week It was a great week across all major indexes. The week opened with a gain on Monday that erased losses from the prior Friday. Once investors had a chance to absorb the new Fed hawkish stance and get past a quadruple witching day, they were ready to push back into growth stocks and see the markets another step upward. There were not many surprises throughout the week. Economic news was mixed at times, but nothing was so out of the ordinary to cause investors reactions. Testimony by Jerome Powell to Congress contained no significant changes in posture. His statements reinforced that they believed inflation to be transitory but would be willing to raise interest rates if inflation was higher than expected. A reconstitution of the Russell 3000 hit the Friday market, where stocks are moved on and off the list based on the current year's capitalization. The shift causes a rebalance across active and passive indexed funds based on the Russell indexes. That rebalance represented over ten trillion dollars of money moved around stocks on Friday. www.tradingview.com The Nasdaq advanced +2.35% this week, setting new record highs. Volume was higher than the previous week due to the rebalancing of indexed funds following the Russell 3000 reconstitution process. The index continued a trend of higher highs and higher lows. The closing range of 88% is excellent. Overall a strong week with a good gain on higher volume. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the biggest gain of the major indexes, advancing +4.32% this week and erasing the big loss from the previous week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) followed a similar pattern, regaining last week's losses and advancing +3.44% for this week. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +2.74% and had a weekly record close. The VIX volatility declined -24.63% for the week. Energy ( XLE ) and Financials ( XLF ) topped the sector list this week. Energy continues to rise while crude oil prices hit record highs. Financials ( XLF ) is recovering along with yields on Treasury Bonds, which both were hit by the hawkish stance from the Fed last week. At the bottom of the sector list were the defensive sectors. Utilities ( XLU ) was the only sector to decline this week. The growth sectors mixed with the cyclical sectors in the middle of the list. Treasury yields on 30y and 10y rebounded a bit from last week's losses while the US 2y yield remained about the same. As a result, the spread between long-term and short-term yields widened. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced, Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices declined. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.55% for the week. Silver (SILVER) advanced +1.16%, and Gold (GOLD) advanced +0.96%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +3.81%. Timber (WOOD) advanced +2.66%, the first weekly advance in six weeks. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +4.12%. Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +4.18%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps continue to show strength, trading above the 10-week and 40-week moving averages. Apple (AAPL) tested the 10-week line but closed the week with a +2.03% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +2.15%. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +2.00%. Amazon (AMZN) was the only loser of the four, falling -2.45% this week after two weeks of significant gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobile (XOM) gained a huge +7.05%, not only on higher oil prices but also the news that the company will reduce costs by laying off some of its workforce. Marriott (MAR) was the only other gainer, advancing +0.94% but remaining below its 10-week moving average. Delta Airlines (DAL) continues to get resistance at the 10-week line, declining -1.18% this week. Finally, Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) closed below the 10-week line with a -0.18% loss this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). The four cryptocurrencies continued to slide lower this week. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -6.70%, closing below its 40-week moving average. Ethereum (ETHUSD) dropped -17.17% but remained above the 40-week line. Both Litecoin (LTCUSD) and Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) moved below the 40-week lines with -16.85% and -16.64% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved lower, ending the week at 0.567. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is on the fear side but moving toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.86 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday The Fed member John Williams will speak on Monday morning as the market is opening. The new Russell 3000 list became official after the market close on Friday, and more impact to equities moving on and off the list could occur Monday morning. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. Tuesday Consumer Confidence numbers for June will be released on Tuesday, after the market open. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Tuesday. Wednesday Wednesday brings an update on Nonfarm Employment before the market opens. In addition, pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories are available after the market open. Meme stock, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), will release earnings on Wednesday. Thursday Thursday's economic data includes Initial Jobless Claims and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Walgreens Boots (WBA) releases earnings on Thursday. Friday More economic data becomes available on Friday. Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate will provide insights into the labor market recovery. Trade Balance data will also be released. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side The Nasdaq continues in a Power Trend while the other major indices are making advances. Power Trends are times to be very bullish on stocks. Investor's Business Daily has information on how to spot Power Trends. There doesn't seem to be any considerable catalyst coming this week unless there are surprises in economic data. The lack of a catalyst should keep investor sentiment in the positive and help further advance the market. The US Dollar is holding up at its current level. Long-term Treasury yields are recovering a bit while short-term yields continue to remain high. The yield gap remains tighter than it was earlier in the year. It seems the four 2021 fears (Retail Investors, Bonds Volatility, Inflation, and Interest Rates) are all under control for the moment. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side After a big week of gains into record closes, it would not be a huge surprise to have the market pullback or pause here. However, a few surprises in the economic calendar would turn the markets more bearish. First, anytime the Fed speaks, the market will be watching closely. Fed John Williams will be making remarks at the BIS Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture on Monday morning. Investors will also be watching Employment data throughout the week. The data starts on Wednesday with the ADP Nonfarm Employment Data, continues on Thursday with Initial Jobless Claims, and ends with the Unemployment Rate and Payrolls data. The ideal situation is that the data comes in near expected, not too low or too high. Significant differences in either direction could bring volatility back to the US dollar and bonds and have a negative impact on equities. It's a light week on economic news and earnings. There's not much to be bearish about in the data. But many times, it is when you don't expect them that the bears come out of nowhere. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq found support at 14,000 last week and moved higher this week, closing at new all-time highs. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was a new all-time high at 14,414.46. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,556 by the end of the week. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 10d MA is at 14,187.50. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The low of this past week is 13,960.04. The 21d EMA is at 14040.86. The 50d MA is at 13,782.40817.47. There is a pivot at 13,548.93. This is a "higher low" in the current uptrend. There is a support area at 13,000. 13,002.54 is a pivot from May. Below this level is a correction. 12862.73 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If you read last week's review, we learned some important things about investor sentiment in the current market. Out-of-control inflation is the greater evil than higher interest rates. Once investors absorbed the Fed's comments, they showed confidence that the Fed recognizes inflation and is willing to control it with higher interest rates. Yet, the Fed is not rushing to raise those rates unless inflation fears become a reality, comforting the long-term investor. That allowed the market to move a leg up this week. From last week's pivot, nothing changed, and there is not much coming next week that would cause a sentiment change, so I expect sideways or higher for the coming week. Let's watch and see what happens. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/25Summary: The S&P 500 closed at another record on Friday while the Nasdaq couldn't make new gains. Economic data is sending mixed signals on the progress of the recovery. For example, while higher than the previous month, consumer data was not as high as analysts expected. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 25, 2021 Facts: -0.06%, Volume higher, Closing range: 32%, Body: 57% Good: Sideways trading with the high/low range of previous day Bad: Lower high, drop on high volume, thick red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, mostly red body with small upper and lower wicks, lower wick is slightly longer Advanced/Decline: 0.91, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.33%), DJI (+0.69%), RUT (+0.03%), VIX (-2.19%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.21%) and Utilities (XLU +1.07%) at top. Materials (XLB +0.01%) and Technology (XLK -0.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The S&P 500 closed at another record on Friday while the Nasdaq couldn't make new gains. Economic data is sending mixed signals on the progress of the recovery. For example, while higher than the previous month, consumer data was not as high as analysts expected. The Nasdaq traded inside the previous day's high and low range and closed lower by the end of the day. The 57y% red body is in the upper part of the candle. The index formed the longer lower wick in morning volatility that set the intraday high and intraday low within the first hour of the trading session. The closing range of 32% is low. The big spike in volume was due to the Russell 3000 rebalancing activity. As a result, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) had another record close, after a 0.33% gain for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gapped up at the market open and ended the day with a +0.69% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) could not hold onto intraday gains, ending the day with just a +0.03% advance. The VIX volatility index declined -2.19%. Another lowest close since the start of the pandemic. Financials (XLF +1.21%) continued to make gains as Treasury yields begin to recover. Utilities (XLU +1.07%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.77%) were second and third on the sector list, showing some defensive stance in the market. Only the Technology (XLK -0.12%) sector closed the day with a loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was flat for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices gained for the day. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -8.81%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -8.98%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.567. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.86 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) held onto a slight gain, advancing +0.01%. Amazon (AMZN) fell -1.38%, the second day of losses and nearing the 21d EMA line. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.63%. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.22%. Nike (NKE) soared above the other mega-caps with a +15.53% gain on a massive revenue surprise. Alibaba (BABA), Bank of America (BAC), and Netflix (NFLX) were also in the top four. Amazon (AMZN), ASML Holding (ASML), PayPal (PYPL), and Eli Lilly (LLY) were the bottom four mega-caps for the day. Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list declined, but there were still quite a few winners. Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Enphase (ENPH) were at the top of the list. At the bottom of the list were Square (SQ), Digital Turbine (APPS), Upwork (UPWK), and GrowGeneration (GRWG). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Fed member John Williams will speak on Monday morning as the market is opening. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq traded flat today, with the high and low within the previous day's high and low. The five-day trend-line points to a +1.00% gain for Monday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.32%. The one-day trend-line would continue the fade from Thursday's high and result in a -0.10% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This week, the Nasdaq gained +2.35%, a significant move that included new all-time highs and record closes. So it is ok if there is a slight pause to end the week. The day had mixed economic news, but it also had the Russell 3000 rebalance that added huge volume and unknowns to the market. Investors got defensive, moving into sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples. Look for some of that defense to turn back into offense on Monday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/24Summary: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record closes today, and gains were broad across sectors and stocks. The Russell 2000 also had gains ahead of the $10 trillion-dollar rebalancing happening this weekend. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 24, 2021 Facts: +0.69%, Volume lower, Closing range: 54% (w/gap), Body: 15% Good: Low above yesterday's high creates bullish rising window, high A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body near middle of candle, gap up at open, longer upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.79, Three gaining stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.58%), DJI (+0.95%), RUT (+1.31%), VIX (-2.15%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.25%) and Communications (XLC +0.94%) at top. Utilities (XLU -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.47%) at bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record closes today, and gains were broad across sectors and stocks. The Russell 2000 also had gains ahead of the $10 trillion-dollar rebalancing happening this weekend. The Nasdaq opened the day with a gap-up and ended with a +0.69% gain. Like yesterday, it could not hold an intraday high set mid-day, retreating near the opening price. The 15% green body is under a 54% closing range. The two-day rising window pattern is a bullish continuation pattern. Three stocks advanced for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed best among the major indices for another day, gaining +1.31% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.58%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.95%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.15%. Financials (XLF +1.25%) and Communications (XLC +0.94%) sectors topped the sector list today. Only two sectors, Utilities (XLU -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.47%) declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.03%. The US 30y Treasury bond yield declined while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields advanced. Yields overall remain steady after last week's reaction to the Fed. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices gained for the day and are nearing levels not seen since before the pandemic. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices also gained today. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +2.47%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.42%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.540. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 70.86 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.53% and +0.31% for the day. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.22%. Amazon (AMZN) pulled back -1.56% after gaining over 10% in the last few weeks. Eli Lilly (LLY), Tesla (TSLA), ASML Holding (ASML), and PayPal (PYPL) were the top mega-caps for the day. Only a handful of mega-caps declined for the day, with Mastercard (MA), Apple (AAPL), Oracle (ORCL), and Amazon (AMZN) at the bottom of the list. The majority of growth stocks in the daily update list had gains today. At the top of the list are Digital Turbine (APPS), Upwork (UPWK), Peloton (PTON), and Fastly (FSLY). Conversely, the worst performing for the day was Ehang Holding (EH), Beyond Meat (BYND), RH (RH), and MongoDB (MDB). Nike (NKE) shares soared 14% higher in after-hours trading. The company had a massive surprise on revenue over analyst estimates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More consumer pricing data released on Friday morning will give another boost to inflation worries but may be tempered by the fact that the Fed is now willing to control inflation. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment are also important data to be available after the market opens. CarMax (KMX) earnings on Friday may be interesting given the rise in used car prices. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues its move higher, approaching 14,500. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.76% gain for Friday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to no gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend-line would continue the fade from today's highs and result in a -0.27% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors continue to be bullish this week, sending the index higher every day of the week. The chart would say that Friday will make it a perfect week with another gain. Volume should undoubtedly be higher tomorrow while the Russell 3000 (RUT) rebalances 10 trillion dollars. Still, after record-setting closes, there shouldn't be any surprise if investors take some profits here and we see some pullback. The expectation is for sideways or higher, but a healthy pullback is OK too. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/23Summary: Mixed economic data seemed to bring mixed reactions in the market today. The result is a day of slim gains across the market while the indices pause after a couple of days of gains. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 23, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing range: 36%, Body: 12% Good: New high, A/D over 1.0 Bad: Low closing range, weak volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Thin green body in the lower half of candle Advanced/Decline: 1.04, About the same number of advancing and declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.11%), DJI (-0.21%), RUT (+0.33%), VIX (-2.16%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.77%) and Energy (XLE +0.28%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.64%) and Utilities (XLU -1.06%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Mixed economic data seemed to bring mixed reactions in the market today. The result is a day of slim gains across the market while the indices pause after a couple of days of gains. The Nasdaq gained +0.13%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The thin 12% body is in the lower half of the candle, resulting in a 36% closing range. The longer upper wick was formed in a rally just after the market opened, but the index could not hold onto the gains. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed best among the major indices today, gaining +0.33%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.11%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.21%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.16%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.77%) and Energy (XLE +0.28%) topped the sector list today. The only other sector with gains was Financials (XLF +0.19%). Materials (XLB -0.64%) and Utilities (XLU -1.06%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.09%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +2.47%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.42%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio lowered to 0.518. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day but are still showing strength. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.21%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.17%. Microsoft (MSFT) fell -0.09%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.05%. Tesla (TSLA), Alibaba (BABA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Walt Disney (DIS) were the top mega-caps today, all gaining over 1%. There were more decliners than gainers in the mega-cap list. Comcast (CMCSA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), and PepsiCo (PEP) were at the bottom of the list. The daily update growth stock list had another day of broad gains. The big winners at the top of the list were UP Fintech (TIGR), Lemonade (LMND), FUTU Holding (FUTU), and SNAP (SNAP). At the bottom of the list were DocuSign (DOCU), CrowdStrike (CRWD), D.R. Horton (DHI), and DoorDash (DASH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead For Thursday, data will be available for Durable Goods Orders. GDP data for Q1 should not change much over previously released numbers. We will also get the Initial Jobless Claims data before the markets open. Finally, there are Fed Bank Stress Test results to be made available after the market closes. Earnings reports on Thursday will include Nike (NKE), Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Blackberry (BB), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). The last two have been popular meme stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose to another new all-time high and continued with the third day of gains this week. All three trend lines point to gains for tomorrow. The one-day trend-line is the flattest, with a +0.05 increase for Thursday. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +0.36% gain, with the five-day trend-line coming in just under that mark. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The rally in the morning faded as more economic data became available and potentially traders took some profits. Several stocks entering the Russell 3000 list this week also had significant gains today, even though they don't officially join the indexes until Monday. Overall, it seems like a healthy pause after several days of market gains. Based on the long upper wick formed by the lost morning rally, the expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. But by all means, please do surprise me. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/22Summary: It was a record-setting day for the Nasdaq, setting a new all-time high for the first time since April. The other major indexes also had good gains for the day, while the sector list mainly was positive. Investors responded to better than expected existing home sales data and no new surprises from Fed Jerome Powell's testimony to congress. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 22, 2021 Facts: +0.79%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89%, Body: 77% Good: New all-time high, thick green body, small wicks Bad: A/D ratio, lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Mostly green body with short upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.74, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.51%), DJI (+0.20%), RUT (+0.43%), VIX (-6.77%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.94%) and Technology (XLK +0.91%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a record-setting day for the Nasdaq, setting a new all-time high for the first time since April. The other major indexes also had good gains for the day, while the sector list mainly was positive. Investors responded to better than expected existing home sales data and no new surprises from Fed Jerome Powell's testimony to congress. The Nasdaq gained +0.79% for the day and finished the day with its highest close since April. The closing range of 89% and 77% green body represents a bullish session that only paused mid-day to await Powell's comments. Despite the bullish day, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.51% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.20%. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all faded before close while the Russell 2000 (RUT) remained steady. The RUT closed with a +0.43% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -6.77%. The growth sectors topped the list today, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.94%) and Technology (XLK +0.91%) at the top of the list. Only two sectors declined. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Utilities (XLU -0.61%) closed lower. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.15%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined slightly. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +2.88%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -0.36%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio remained about the same at 0.582. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day, continuing to show strength and helping the Nasdaq move higher. Amazon (AMZN) gained +1.49%. Apple (AAPL) advanced +1.27%. Microsoft (MSFT) reached another new all-time high with a +1.10% gain. Alphabet (GOOGL) is nearing a new all-time high with a +0.43% gain today. Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX), Facebook (FB), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the top mega-caps today. Most mega-caps had positive gains. The biggest losers were Novartis (NVS), Salesforce.com (CRM), Eli Lilly (LLY), and AT&T (T). However, their losses were all under 1%. Gainers also dominated the daily update growth list. Upwork (UPWK), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Peloton (PTON), and CrowdStrike (CRWD) had the most significant advances. SNAP (SNAP), Zynga (ZNGA), NIO (NIO), and Sumo Digital (SUMO) were at the bottom of the list. NIO and Sumo lost more than 5%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services purchasing manager index data, released on Wednesday, gives a view on demand for products in services in their sectors. In addition, new Home Sales data will be available after the market open. Crude Oil Inventories data also comes on Wednesday, after the market opens. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose above 14,200 after attempting to pass the resistance area a few times. We will watch for that area to become a support area if the index pulls back. The one-day trend-line shows another gain for tomorrow, an advance of +0.81%. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +0.25% gain. The five-day trend-line ends with a -0.33% declined for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Two catalysts helped the index move higher today. More robust than expected existing home sales kicked off momentum in the morning. Then a well-received message from Jerome Powell helped in the afternoon. Powell stated that the Fed would not raise interest rates on inflation fears alone. They would need to see real inflation before considering policy change. That message resonates well. The Fed will not rush to raise rates but is also not going to let inflation run wild. This stance from the Fed is making global investors more confident in the US Dollar, US Treasuries, and likewise US equities. That confidence is healthy for the whole market, but especially growth stocks, sending the growth sectors and the Nasdaq higher. Given the momentum, the expectation is for higher tomorrow. Sideways would not be a huge surprise. If we see a pullback in the Nasdaq, then there is likely some catalyst driving people to safety or into sector rotation. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/21Summary: Investors moved back into equities on Monday, helping markets rebound from Friday's sell-off. All major indexes and sectors moved higher while stocks ended the day balanced across gains and losses. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 21, 2021 Facts: +0.79%, Volume higher, Closing range: 95%, Body: 49% Good: Higher high, long lower wick from bullish rebound off morning low Bad: Lower low, otherwise not much Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Half green body with long lower wick, small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.03, One advancing stock for each declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.40%), DJI (+1.76%), RUT (+2.16%), VIX (-13.66%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.21%) and Financials (XLF +1.93%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.49%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors moved back into equities on Monday, helping markets rebound from Friday's sell-off. All major indexes and sectors moved higher while stocks ended the day balanced across gains and losses. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.79% gain. The volume was lower than Friday's unusually high volume. The 49% body is in the upper half of the candle, above a long lower wick formed just after the market open. The index dropped after open, but found support around 14,000 and moved higher the rest of the day. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.76%, closing a gap down on Friday. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.40% and produced a Marubozu White bullish candle, forming no upper or lower wick. The Russell 2000 (RUT) erased Friday's loss with a +2.16% gain today. The VIX volatility index declined -13.66%. All sectors moved higher today, with cyclical sectors leading the list. Energy (XLE +3.21%) and Financials (XLF +1.93%) were at the top of the list. Industrials (XLI +1.8%) and Materials (XLB +1.63%) were second and third. After heavy selling of cyclical sectors, we expected that some rotation back into these sectors would happen. These are still important sectors for a full economic recovery. Utilities (XLU +0.51%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.49%) were at the bottom, marking fewer defensive moves than last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) pulled back a bit after gaining 2% last week. Today it declined -0.52%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose after declining last week. The 2y Treasury yield remained about the same. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) rose. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) rose +2.33% after a few weeks of decline. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -9.62%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -14.92%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.585. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) was the only of the largest four mega-caps to decline today, losing -0.94% on Prime Day. Apple (AAPL) retested the 50d moving average line and then moved higher, gaining +1.41%. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +1.23%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.42%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the list of mega-caps, filled with mostly gainers for today. Bank of America (BAC) and Oracle (ORCL) fill out the top four. At the bottom of the list were Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon, and Netflix (NFLX). The daily update growth list was divided almost evenly among gainers and losers. Ehang Holdings (EH), RH (RH), Roku (ROKU), and DoorDash (DOOR) were the top four, each gaining over 3.5% for the day. At the bottom of the list were UP Fintech (TIGR), Pinterest (PINS), FUTU Holding (FUTU), and CrowdStrike (CRWD). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Existing Home Sales for May gets released on Tuesday, after the market open. In the afternoon, Jerome Powell testifies before congress. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is updated after the market close. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq found support again at 14,000 and then headed back toward 14,200, range-bound for the past week. The one-day trend-line and the trend-line from the 5/12 low point to a +0.82% advance on Tuesday would break the range and set a new all-time high. The five-day trend-line ends with a -0.21% declined for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was a lot of debate over the weekend over the health of the markets. The story isn't over, but today was a move in the right direction toward a continued bull market with new support for growth after the Fed turned hawkish. For tomorrow, we'll look for sideways or higher. If higher, a clear break into a new all-time high on higher volume would be a clear bullish signal. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 6/14/2021 - 6/18/2021Summary: The markets were volatile this week, with a clear character shift after the Fed statements on Wednesday. The meeting and comments from the Fed this week shifted the outlook from analysts and investors in surprising ways. In addition, the quadruple witching day on Friday added extra volatility that helped amplify what we might expect in the coming weeks. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 14, 2021 Facts: +0.74%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 76% Good: High closing range, higher volume, large green body Bad: Advance/decline ratio below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Short lower wick filled opening gap, thick green body, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.86, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (-0.25%), RUT (-0.41%), VIX (+4.73%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.01%) and, Communications (XLC +0.66%) were top. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Materials (XLB -1.23%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways The Nasdaq continued its march higher while the other major indices paused or pulled back. The gains focused on mid and large-cap growth stocks. The index closed with a +0.75% gain on higher volume than Friday. The closing range reached 99% in the last 30 minutes of trading, while the 76% green body represents a steady climb throughout the day. The higher high marks the seventh session in a row to reach a higher high. The close is only 0.25% below a new all-time high. However, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 15, 2021 Facts: -0.71%, Volume higher, Closing range: 17%, Body: 79% Good: Held above 14,000 support area Bad: Selling most of the day. Lower high and lower low. Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks. Advanced/Decline: 0.42, Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.20%), DJI (-0.27%), RUT (-0.26%), VIX (+3.72%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.90%) and Industrials (XLI +0.43%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.92%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower After higher than expected producer price index data this morning, investors prepared themselves for the Fed comments scheduled on Wednesday. Major indices fell on the fear that Fed officials will start to push for earlier interest rate hikes and tapering of asset purchase programs. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.71% loss for the day, on higher volume. The candle is mostly a red body and represents selling throughout the day as the bears stepped in. The closing range of 17% is above a small lower wick formed from a small rally into close. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 16, 2021 Facts: -0.24%, Volume higher, Closing range: 60%, Body: 20% Good: Bounce off low in the afternoon to close back above 14,000 Bad: Big dip after fed news Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Slim red body in the upper half of a long candle. Long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.56, Almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (-0.77%), RUT (-0.23%), VIX (+6.64%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.05%) and Financials (XLF -0.11%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.33%) and Utilities (XLU -1.50%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The Fed has spoken. The market lit up after the Fed pulled forward projected dates for interest rate hikes into 2023. The US Dollar spiked about 1%, long-term Treasury yields rose, and equities dropped. Equities found support after the initial reaction but couldn't quite recover all the losses. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.24% decline. That was better than the -1.20% intraday dip. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has a long lower wick underneath a 20% body in the upper half of the candle. The closing range of 60% provides some positive ending to a day that ended in a loss. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 17, 2021 Facts: +0.87%, Volume lower, Closing range: 82%, Body: 82% Good: High closing range after a dip mid-day. No lower wick. Bad: Resistance at 14,200, lower volume, A/D below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with no lower wick, high closing range under small upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.57, Almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.04%), DJI (-0.62%), RUT (-1.18%), VIX (-2.21%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.16%) and Health (XLV +0.76%) were top. Financials (XLF -2.90%) and Energy (XLE -3.40%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher Technology stocks moved higher today, helping boost the Nasdaq while the other major indexes retreated. The mix of investments in growth sectors and defensive sectors show some indecision about the new Fed policy. At the same time, there was an apparent sell-off in cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq advanced +0.87% while volume was lower than the previous day. The gains were steady through the morning before a dip mid-day. However, the index recovered and closed near intraday highs. The closing range of 82% matches an 82% body that left no lower wick. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 18, 2021 Facts: -0.92%, Volume higher, Closing range: 18%, Body: 55% Good: Held above yesterday's low, and above 14,000. Bad: Huge volume on move lower, low A/D Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with a thick red body, longer upper wick, low closing range Advanced/Decline: 0.3, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.31%), DJI (-1.58%), RUT (-2.17%), VIX (+16.74%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.53%) and Technology (XLK -0.91%) were top. Utilities (XLU -2.60%) and Energy (XLE -2.96%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways The quadruple witching day amplified some rotations that happened yesterday and brought all the major indices lower. Value stocks sold off far more than growth stocks, while the US Dollar continued to strengthen. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.92% loss. Volume was much higher than the previous day due to the quadruple witching day when index futures, index options, individual stock futures, and stock options all expire on the same day. The closing range of 18% is below a red body with a visible lower wick and longer upper wick. The high is lower than the previous day, while the low is higher than the previous day, marking an inside day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week The markets were volatile this week, with a clear character shift after the Fed statements on Wednesday. The meeting and comments from the Fed this week shifted the outlook from analysts and investors in surprising ways. In addition, the quadruple witching day on Friday added extra volatility that helped amplify what we might expect in the coming weeks. The first thing to note this week is that the Nasdaq outperformed the other indexes. The tech-heavy index outperformed in previous weeks, but this week is a down week in the market, which can be more telling. Moreover, the Nasdaq fell less than the other major indexes, which is notable after the Fed's new hawkish policy. This daily and weekly update is all about learning, and I realized something this week that I wasn't seeing. Heading into Wednesday, I thought investors were worried about the Fed raising interest rates in response to inflation. The reaction to high Producer Price Index data was a pullback in the Nasdaq as it indicated continued inflation. After Wednesday, I realize investors were more worried that the Fed would not raise rates and let inflation run. It makes sense. Inflation usually is good for value stocks and bad for growth stocks. Higher interest rates are also bad for growth stocks, but multiple years of high inflation is the greater enemy. The Fed's dot plots showed that more members see interest rate hikes coming earlier to keep inflation at the 2% target. Although Jerome Powell still states that inflation is transitory, the increased dot plots show that there will be limits to how much they let it run. The reaction is best seen in the US dollar. It increased in strength by 2% this week, with the gains all coming after the Fed comments. Again, that makes sense. The Fed's willingness to control inflation makes the US dollar a safer bet for global investors. You can see the subsequent impact in US Treasuries, with a significant tightening of the spread between long-term and short-term yields. Finally, we can see the reaction in the rotation that was most apparent on Friday's quadruple witching day, which amplified the moves in higher volume. When the equity markets sold off on high volume, growth stocks and tech stocks held up relative to value and cyclical stocks. Some growth stocks even had significant gains. So should we be worried about the Dow Jones Industrial Average gap-down on Friday and the worst week since October 2020? Maybe. But it also makes sense given the other indicators we see. The strengthening US Dollar can impact valuations on the large stable multinational companies in the Dow Jones, just as it can impact the value of silver and gold. But looking closely at the 30 companies in the index, you can almost line them up from value to growth and see that the farther along the spectrum they are to value, the more significant the losses today. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.92% decline for the week. Volume was higher, primarily because of the quadruple witching day on Friday that saw volume 30% higher than usual. The index continued an uptrend on the weekly chart with a higher high and higher low than the previous week. The closing range of 43% is not great, but not terrible either. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -1.91% for the week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was down -4.20%. But it was the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) that made headlines with a -3.45% loss, the worst since October. The VIX volatility gained +32.35% for the week. It was a volatile week in the indexes and the sector list as investors rotated on the Fed's new hawkish stance toward inflation. Energy ( XLE ) led early in the week, but Technology ( XLK ) topped the list by the end of the week, ending the week as the only sector to hold onto gains. In second place was Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ). Growth stocks remained strong compared to Value stocks even in the sell-off that occurred on quadruple witching Friday. The cyclical sectors were at the bottom of the weekly sector list, with Materials ( XLB ) having the worse performance among a drop in commodity prices. The US Treasuries were impacted by the Fed decision, along with the US Dollar. Treasury yields on the 30y and 10y dropped as investors moved back to US dollar and US bonds. However, the 2y yields rose this week as they became less attractive to the longer-term bonds. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined, Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +2.0% for the week. Silver (SILVER) declined -7.57%, and Gold (GOLD) declined -6.04%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +1.90%. Timber (WOOD) continues its decline, losing -4.65% this week. Copper (COPPER1!) declined -7.42%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -3.50%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps looked promising last week, and they look even better this week. Apple (AAPL) joined the other three by breaking out above its 10-week moving average line on higher volume. Amazon (AMZN) continued its breakout last week as it heads into the annual Prime Day event next week. Microsoft (MSFT) retested the 10-week moving average line but ended the week with gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) was the only one of the four with a loss but held well above the 10-week moving average. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Unfortunately, things do not look as well for the four recovery stocks. Exxon Mobil (XOM) lost -2.85%. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) dropped -5.85%. Both Exxon and Carnival are still above their 10-week moving average. Delta Airlines (DAL) declined -3.31%, and Marriott (MAR) lost -3.24%, remaining below their 10-week moving averages. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). The four cryptocurrencies continue struggling to find lasting gains. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -9.95% this week. Ethereum (ETHUSD) fell -12.64%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) dropped -9.49%. Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) declined -9.17%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved higher, ending the week at 0.716. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved the fear side of the scale. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 98.52. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday Short-term Treasury Bill auctions are on Monday. Fed John Williams speaks on Monday afternoon. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. Tuesday Existing Home Sales for May gets released on Tuesday, after the market open. In the afternoon, Jerome Powell testifies before congress. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is updated after the market close. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Tuesday. Wednesday Manufacturing and Services purchasing manager index data, released on Wednesday, gives a view on demand for products in services in their sectors. In addition, new Home Sales data will be available after the market open. Crude Oil Inventories data also comes on Wednesday, after the market opens. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Wednesday. Thursday For Thursday, data will be available for Durable Goods Orders. GDP data for Q1 should not change much over previously released numbers. We will also get the Initial Jobless Claims data before the markets open. Finally, there are Fed Bank Stress Test results to be made available after the market closes. Earnings reports on Thursday will include Nike (NKE), Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Blackberry (BB), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). The last two have been popular meme stocks. Friday More consumer pricing data released on Friday morning will give another boost to inflation worries but may be tempered by the fact that the Fed is now willing to control inflation. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment are also important data to be available after the market opens. CarMax (KMX) earnings on Friday may be interesting given the rise in used car prices. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side There seems to be an apparent rotation back into growth stocks, which signals bullishness even as some of the contrarian indicators moving to fear. For CANSLIM investors, the Nasdaq moved into a Power Trend this week. The low of the index held above the 21d EMA for over ten days. The 21d EMA is above the 50d MA for over seven days, and the 50d MA is in an uptrend. The positive day on Thursday signals the power trend. There's no telling how long it would last or if it’s a false signal, but right now, the Nasdaq still looks bullish. It seems investors are balancing fears of inflation with the fact that the Fed recognizes it could be less than transitory and is willing to change policy to control inflation if it continues. Those changes are still far into the future enough to give growth stocks some room to move up. Goldman Sachs declared this past week that Value is winning now but that by the end of the year, Growth stocks would outperform. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side It may look great on the Nasdaq, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average just had its worst week since last October. As much as I can write it off about the rotation from value to growth, it still looks like a concerning chart. If the Dow Jones continues to move lower, it will impact the other major indices and the rest of the market. Although the Fed is overall hawkish on inflation now, Employment data was worse than expected this week. That could put the Fed in a situation where it has to balance inflation worries against concerns of a faltered employment recovery. Likely it will work itself out, but a shaky recovery amidst short-term inflation worries could cause more volatility. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq dipped below but closed above the 14,000 area. It nearly reached a new all-time high but met resistance. It did set a record close on this past Monday. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was 14,196.21. The all-time high is at 14,211.57. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,390 by the end of the week. On the downside, there are a few key levels: 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The 10d MA is at 14,028.65. The low of this past week is 13,903.73. The 21d EMA is at 13,888.95. The 50d MA is at 13,782.40. There is a pivot at 13,548.93. This is a "higher low" in the current uptrend. There is a support area at 13,000. 13,002.54 is a pivot from May. Below this level is a correction. 12,789.84 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was an interesting week to observe the indexes and indicators I use in the daily update and week in review. The Nasdaq looks bullish, but the Dow Jones Industrial seems bearish. There is a shift in sentiment toward the US Dollar that could be the best indicator to watch. It will impact how much money flows into other US dollar-based investments, including Bonds and Equities. It could also shift investors from Value back to Growth. Looking at another view of what's going on, we can again visit the growth vs. value chart. The market could quickly reverse the move, but for now, growth is getting investors' intention again. If Nasdaq's Power Trend plays out, we can expect more gains and new highs. If it's a false positive, then perhaps it's time to go to the sidelines and wait for better conditions. The stocks in your portfolio will be the ultimate decision-maker for you. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
6
Daily Market Update for 6/18Summary: The quadruple witching day amplified some rotations that happened yesterday and brought all the major indices lower. Value stocks sold off far more than growth stocks, while the US Dollar continued to strengthen Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 18, 2021 Facts: -0.92%, Volume higher, Closing range: 18%, Body: 55% Good: Held above yesterday's low, and above 14,000. Bad: Huge volume on move lower, low A/D Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with a thick red body, longer upper wick, low closing range Advanced/Decline: 0.3, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.31%), DJI (-1.58%), RUT (-2.17%), VIX (+16.74%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.53%) and Technology (XLK -0.91%) were top. Utilities (XLU -2.60%) and Energy (XLE -2.96%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The quadruple witching day amplified some rotations that happened yesterday and brought all the major indices lower. Value stocks sold off far more than growth stocks, while the US Dollar continued to strengthen. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.92% loss. Volume was much higher than the previous day due to the quadruple witching day when index futures, index options, individual stock futures, and stock options all expire on the same day. The closing range of 18% is below a red body with a visible lower wick and longer upper wick. The high is lower than the previous day, while the low is higher than the previous day, marking an inside day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed with a -1.58% decline today, finishing the worst weekly loss since October. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.31%, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -2.17%. The gap down today and weekly loss on the DJI is something to keep an eye on. However, it is not a surprise that the DJI is falling rapidly among the US dollar's considerable gains. Large international companies benefit from a weaker dollar. The VIX volatility index advanced +16.74%. All sectors moved lower today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.53%) and Technology (XLK -0.91%) topped the sector list with the smallest losses. Utilities (XLU -2.60%) and Energy (XLE -2.96%) were the bottom two sectors. Financials (XLF -2.41%) is moving lower due to the lower yields in Treasuries. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) strengthened for a third day, rising +0.46%. It is up 2% for the week. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields continued to decline while the 2y Treasury yield rose. The spread between long-term and short-term Treasuries is tightening rapidly. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) continues to slide, dropping -1.51% today. Almost -5% for the week. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -5.93%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -6.07% -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.716. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further to the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) continues to show strength among the four largest mega-caps, declining only -0.07% today. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.56%. Apple (AAPL) fell -1.01%. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.34%. Only a handful of mega-caps gained for the day. At the top of the list are Adobe (ADBE), PayPal (PYPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX). The biggest losers today are Toyota Motor (TM ), ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Intel (INTC). The daily update growth list had more gainers than losers. Fiverr (FVRR), DocuSign (DOCU), Lemonade (LMND), and Roku (ROKU) led the list. At the bottom of the list are Beyond Meat (BYND), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Ehang Holdings (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Short-term Treasury Bill auctions are on Monday. Fed John Williams speaks on Monday afternoon. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index continues to build support in the 14,000 to 14,200 trading range. The trend-line from the 5/12 low points to a +1.52% advance on Monday and a new all-time high. The five-day trend-line ends with a +0.34% advance to start the week. The one-day trend-line points to a -0.25% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Quadruple witching always makes for a strange day in the markets and today was no exception. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), you'd think the market is crashing, and maybe it is. But if you look at the Nasdaq, you get a different story, closing the week with an inside day and still in an uptrend on the weekly chart. Looking at another view of what's going on, we can again visit the growth vs. value chart. The market could quickly reverse the move, but for now, growth is getting investors' intention again. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321