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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 5/27Summary: Positive employment and durable goods orders data gave a boost to the cyclical sectors today. Investors rotated out of big tech and some growth stocks and into value stocks and small caps. Even so, there were a broad set of gains on higher volume, even in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 27, 2021 Facts: -0.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Could not hold onto intraday gains Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Indecisive spinning-top red candle, thin red body in the middle of two long wicks. Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.12%), DJI (+0.41%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-3.57%) Sectors: Industrials (XLI +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.15%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.62%) and Utilities (XLU -0.67%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive employment and durable goods orders data gave a boost to the cyclical sectors today. Investors rotated out of big tech and some growth stocks and into value stocks and small caps. Even so, there were a broad set of gains on higher volume, even in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Nasdaq closed nearly where it opened with a slight -0.01% loss. The spinning-top style candle has a thin 8% red body in the middle of equal length upper and lower wicks, resulting in a 46% closing range. The candle signals indecision among investors, which is in line with this week's market character. Despite the slight loss, there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) index led again today with a +1.06% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.41%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.12%. The VIX volatility index declined -3.57%. Cyclical sectors led the list today. Industrials (XLI +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.15%) were top, with Materials (XLB +0.80%) in third place. Technology (XLK -0.53%) had the second day of underperformance relative to the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.62%) and Utilities (XLU -0.67%) were the bottom sectors of the day. Investors did not focus on the defensive strategy of these sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.05%. The dollar seems to have found a base of support over the past two weeks. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y treasure yields all advanced, with the spread remaining about the same. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced considerably, aligning with the performance of the Industrial and Materials sectors. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.05%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -5.14%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.550. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the fear side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 68.3 after dipping to 44.2 the previous week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps declined today. Apple (AAPL) lost -1.24% while Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.07%. Both are trading below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.87% but stopped short of dipping below the 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) remains well above the two key moving average lines, despite declining -0.74% today. Tesla (TSLA) tops the mega-cap list again today. JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Facebook (FB), Walt Disney (DIS) were also in the top-performing mega-caps for the day. At the bottom of the list is Proctor & Gamble (PG), Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Nvidia (NVDA). The majority of stocks in the daily update growth list gained for the day. Beyond Meat (BYND), DoorDash (DASH), Snowflake (SNOW), and Cloudflare (NET) topped the list. Okta (OKTA) declined almost 10% after disappointing investors with their earnings, despite beating expectations. Workday (WDAY), Paycom (PAYC), and ServiceNow (NOW) are also at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday will bring another update on inflation with the PCE Price Index data, an indicator of inflation. In addition, we will see updates for Goods Trade Balance, Personal Spending, Retail Inventories, and Consumer Sentiment. Big Lots (BIG) and Ehang Holdings (EH) will release earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index made a higher high today before settling back to where it opened. It's still above the 13,600-13,700 area. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.81% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a +0.10% gain. A return to the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.84% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up On the one hand, we have a red candle with a daily loss for the Nasdaq. That doesn't seem optimistic for tech and growth stocks. On the other hand, there is higher volume and broad gains across the stocks in the index. Overall, you could call that a structural day that builds a base for further increases. The last six candles all have higher lows, which is good. The highs, however, have been decelerating relative to the higher lows, creating a topping pattern. That makes setting an expectation for Friday all the more challenging and reflects the indecision in the market this week. The expectation is Sideways or Lower for Friday. The primary risk will be in the pre-market Price Index data that may raise inflation fears with investors. There may also be more rotation back into recovery stocks and cyclical sectors, or even defensive sectors, as investors take some profits heading into a three-day weekend. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
24
Daily Market Update for 5/26Summary: Investors put their inflation worries aside today and jumped back into growth and small-cap stocks. The breadth of gains across stocks on higher volume in the indices shows the kind of accumulation we've wanted. There is still overhead supply to deal with among many growth stocks, but today is a move in the right direction. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 26, 2021 Facts: +0.59%, Volume higher, Closing range: 83%, Body: 62% Good: Higher volume with breadth of gains across index Bad: No higher high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day. A shallow green body with the high and low within the previous day's range. Advanced/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.03%), RUT (+1.97%), VIX (-7.31%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.95%) and Energy (XLE +0.89%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.21%) and Health (XLV -0.58%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors put their inflation worries aside today and jumped back into growth and small-cap stocks. The breadth of gains across stocks on higher volume in the indices shows the kind of accumulation we've wanted. There is still overhead supply to deal with among many growth stocks, but today is a move in the right direction. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.59% gain on higher volume. The candlestick is an inside day where the high and low are within the high and low of the previous day. The closing range of 83% over a 62% green body represents a bullish day, but the narrow trading range exposes some remaining caution among investors. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Small caps and the Russell 2000 (RUT) performed well today. The RUT advanced +1.97%, bouncing back from yesterday's decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) moved sideways with just a +0.03% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -7.31%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.95%) and Energy (XLE +0.89%) were the top sectors for the day. Energy got a boost from better than expected demand for oil. Only three sectors lost for the day. Technology (XLK -0.01%) had a slight loss, which is significant on a day that the Nasdaq performed well. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.21%) and Health (XLV -0.58%) were today's worst-performing sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed +0.42%. The US 30y and 10y treasure yields advanced slightly while the 2y yield declined. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +2.37%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +6.85%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.541. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps had mixed results. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.74% and put more room between the current price and the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +0.19% and closed above the 21d EMA for the first time since the beginning of May. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.04% and remained below the two key moving average lines. Microsoft also declined, losing -0.09%, and created another doji style candle signaling indecision. Tesla (TSLA), Comcast (CMCSA), Nike (NKE), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were the top mega-caps for the day, all gaining over 1.5%. Abbott Labs (ABT), Mastercard (MA), Pfizer (PFE), and ASML Holding (ASML) were at the bottom of the list. Only two stocks in the daily update growth list declined for the day, Facebook (FB) and Pinterest (PINS). At the top of the list were Ehang Holdings (EH), UP Fintech (TIGR), Zscaler (ZS), and Lemonade (LMND), all gaining over 10%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Thursday, Durable Goods orders data will get an update. We will also get the revised GDP numbers for Q1, which should align with the previously released numbers. Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales will also get an update. Salesforce.com (CRM), Medtronic (MDT), Costco (COST), VMWare (VMW), Autodesk (ADSK), Dollar General (DG), Veeva Systems (VEEV), HP Inc (HPQ), Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Burlington Stores (BURL), GameStop (GME), and Gap (GPS) release earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index moved above the 13,600 - 13,700 resistance area. That should become a support area as well. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.69% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a +0.29% gain. A return to the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.83% decline for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Positive price action. Higher volume. A breadth of gains across the market. What more can I ask for? Now I'd like to see a higher high to show a move toward a new all-time high. To do that, the Technology sector will likely need to participate as well. Otherwise, the environment looks right for more gains, and the expectation is set for sideways or higher for tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Daily Market Update for 5/25Summary: The indices pulled back a bit from yesterday's gains after consumer confidence numbers were lower than expected, indicating some possible bumps in the economic recovery. That left us still waiting for a higher volume advance with more breadth in gains across the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 25, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 21%, Body: 54% Good: The higher high and higher low continues the uptrend Bad: Could not revisit the high just after open, and higher volume in selling with low A/D Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Shallow red body within a tight intraday range. Slightly longer upper wick. Advanced/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (-24%), DJI (+0.24%), RUT (-0.97%), VIX (-7.73%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.32%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.28%) were top. Utilities (XLU -1.21%) and Energy (XLE -2.03%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The indices pulled back a bit from yesterday's gains after consumer confidence numbers were lower than expected, indicating some possible bumps in the economic recovery. That left us still waiting for a higher volume advance with more breadth in gains across the market. The Nasdaq moved sideways with a small -0.03% declined by the end of the day. Volume was higher for the day. The index fell after a very brief rally after open, creating a 54% red body with small upper and lower wicks. The closing range of 21% is in the middle of the afternoon trading range, with the index moving sideways most of the day. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.21%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.24%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -0.97% and had an outside day, having a higher high and a lower low than the previous day. The VIX volatility index rose +1.30%. Only four sectors ended the day with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.32%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.28%) were the top-performing. Technology (XLK +0.03%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) also had gains, albeit small advances. Utilities (XLU -1.21%) and Energy (XLE -2.03%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.19%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y treasure yields all declined for the day, with the spreads between long-term and short-term tightening significantly. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the fourth day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.14%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +1.98%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.654. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) declined today, moving down -0.16% and remaining below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) closed with a +0.43% gain after dipping into the afternoon but climbing back up to the moving average lines before close. Microsoft (MSFT) gapped up at open, moved up and down, but closed nearly at the same price as open, gaining +0.37% for the day and creating a bearish Doji star candle. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.08% today. ASML Holding (ASML), Adobe (ADBE), Walt Disney (DIS), and Facebook (FB) were at the top of the mega-cap list today. There were slightly more gaining mega-caps than losing mega-caps. Mastercard (MA), Bank of America (BAC), Chevron (CVX), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the biggest losers. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the growth stock list thanks to a positive earnings beat by UP Fintech before the market open. GrowGeneration (GRWG) was third after announcing another acquisition. Ehang Holdings (EH) adds another Chinese stock to the top for growth stocks for today. Lemonade (LMND), DoorDash (DASH), Digital Turbine (APPS), and SUMO Digital (SUMO) had losses and were at the bottom of the daily update growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories will be released on Wednesday after the market opens. FOMC member Quarles will speak in the afternoon, before market close. Earnings releases will include Nvidia (NVDA), Pinduoduo (PDD), Snowflake (SNOW), Workday (WDAY), and Okta (OKTA). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index stayed above the 21d EMA and 50d MA today, moving sideways within the 13,600 - 13,700 resistance/support area. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +1.71 gain for tomorrow, taking the index to end just below the 14,000 area. The one-day trend line points to a -0.51% decline for tomorrow, resting the index right at the 50d MA. A return to the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.67% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's not much to look at in the indices today. We expected sideways or higher. We got sideways within a recent uptrend that continues with the higher high and higher low. It was notable to see the US Dollar and Treasury yields drop due to consumer confidence and housing data. That will be something to watch over the next few days to see the impact ripple through markets. I'll continue yesterday's expectation of sideways or higher until the index gives a strong indication of change. There are not many catalysts for a considerable reaction tomorrow unless there is a surprise in crude oil inventories or something said by FOMC member Randal Quarles in the late afternoon. I am still waiting for a positive day with higher volume and breadth of gains across the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/24Summary: The Fed made new promises today to keep an easy monetary policy, helping boost growth stocks. Stocks that suffered from inflation fears were the ones that had the most gains today. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 21, 2021 Facts: +1.41%, Volume lower, Closing range: 70%, Body: 66% Good: Higher high, higher low, high closing range Bad: Upper wick from fade before close, lower volume, A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body under a long upper wick. No lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.99%), DJI (+0.54%), RUT (+0.54%), VIX (-7.73%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.82%) and Technology (XLK +1.78%) were top. Health (XLV +0.10%) and Utilities (XLU -0.18%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed made new promises today to keep an easy monetary policy, helping boost growth stocks. Stocks that suffered from inflation fears were the ones that had the most gains today. The Nasdaq rose +1.41%, but on lower volume for the day. The closing range of 70% results from a fade in prices before close, but the candle still has a 66% green body from the bullish day. Despite the bullish day in the indexes, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.99%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.54%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also rose +0.54% for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -7.73%. Communications (XLC +1.82%) and Technology (XLK +1.78%) were the top sectors for the day. They were far above the next best sector, Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%). Utilities (XLU -0.18%) was the only declining sector for today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.21%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y treasure yield advanced. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the third day. Silver (SILVER) advanced, Gold (GOLD) was flat. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced 11.91%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +26.37%. Both reversed after huge drops over the weekend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.616. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps advanced today. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest gain with a +2.92% advance, helping Communications to the top of the sector list. Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +2.29%. Both Microsoft and Alphabet are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are still looking for a solid move above those lines but could gain +1.33% and 1.31%, respectively. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), ASML Holding (ASML), Alphabet, Facebook (FB), and PayPal (PYPL) all gained over 2.5%, topping the mega-cap list. AT&T (T), Pfizer (PFE), Home Depot (HD), and Alibaba (BABA) were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks benefited from the new confidence in the Fed today. The top of the daily update list includes Beyond Meat (BYND), DraftKings (DKNG), SNAP Inc. (SNAP), and Chewy (CHWY), all with gains of over 5.5%. JD.com (JD), UP Fintech (TIGR), Etsy (ETSY), and GrowGeneration (GRWG) did not fare as well, declining more than 1% each. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales numbers will be released after the market opens on Tuesday. Intuit (INTU), AutoZone (AZO), Zscaler (ZS), Nordstrom (JWN), MakeMyTrip (MMYT), and UP Fintech (TIGR) will release earnings updates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index rose above the 21d EMA and 50d MA today before hitting resistance at 13,700 and fading into close. Staying above the key moving average lines would help the index move back towards 14,000 and all-time highs. The one-day and five-day trend-lines point to a +0.27% to +0.53% advance for tomorrow. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -3.18% decline on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors were happy to hear from Fed members today, reiterating the need for continued easy monetary policy. The result was a rush back into stocks that were severely beaten down on inflation fears. But the result was more declining stocks than advancing stocks and lower volume. Based on the higher high and higher low today, it's fair to expect another move higher tomorrow. But the move would give more confidence if it comes with breadth and higher volume. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Russell 2000 - Please Stop Buying ItPick any path you want, none look appealing from a bull's perspective. I created this chart today because I found incomprehensible that the Russell tape kept getting bought aggressively into today's close. Forget about the fact that this index has tested the lows of this triangular range (black date range above) several times, but what is more troubling is that these are small-cap companies trading at what used to be Blue Chip prices, like a year ago. Small caps should be respected for their bearishness; they are the first to get punched when the indices agree downward and they are also the hardest to get punched. This makes sense because smaller companies are less likely to maintain operations during times of economic hardship due to a number of logical cash-flow-related items. Thus, while it hasn't been made abundantly clear by the media or US politicians yet (Europe is less delusional) that the economy is doing not-so-great, I find it ridiculous that the only index to get aggresively bought during this intensely bearish afternoon session was the Russell 2k. This is a testament to how little people fear markets these days, or rather, it is that they have only experienced this 2020 rally and do not care/were not alive during the year 2008. The type of fear that has been omnipresent since January 2021 is that of FOMO. Typically, when people are fearful of transient, bearish price action, the natural reaction is to panic-sell. Well, it's now clear that we have entered a new age where it is human nature to panic buy the riskiest assets when markets show bearishness. I only kid, of course - there is no actual no new age of anything. In fact, I'd imagine that it'll only take the first near-term apolcalyptic selloff to reprogram the market masses. All I ask is that you not be long the Russell at times where it makes more sense to be long just about anything unrelated to stocks. -Apigolyptic Selloff 2k21 AMEX:IWM RUSSELL:RUT GLOBALPRIME:US2000 TSE:SMALL500 BMFBOVESPA:SMLL SPCFD:SPX NASDAQ:IXIC DJCFD:DJI CURRENCYCOM:US500 CURRENCYCOM:US100 CURRENCYCOM:US30 CBOE:RVX
FOREXCOM:US2000Short
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
9
Market Week in Review - 5/17/2021 - 5/21/2021Summary: Are you tired of hearing about inflation yet? Well, it's still very much the focus of investors and driving the wild up-and-down movements in the Nasdaq. This week's most crucial moment was clearly on Wednesday at 2:00 pm when the Fed released the minutes from last month's meeting. Investors poured over the report looking between the lines for hints of inflation concerns and potential fed action to control it. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "The Meaning of Life." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 17, 2021 Facts: -0.38%, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 8% Good: Close in upper part of range, bulls took over in afternoon Bad: Lower high, selling most of day Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Tiny thin body over a long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.25%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (+0.11%), VIX (+4.84%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.32%) and Materials (XLB +0.88%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.79%) and Utilities (XLU -0.82%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Monday started with a dip, just like the past several Mondays. This week's difference is that the bulls entered in the afternoon, bringing the major indices back to near their open. Small Caps performed best on the day as inflation still weighed on big tech and mid-cap growth. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.38% loss on lower volume. The 85% closing range over an 8% green body is in the upper part of the candle over a long lower wick. The candle indicates the bulls weren't willing to let go, but still, there was indecision in the market. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 18, 2021 Facts: -0.56%, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Body: 61% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Couldn't hold morning rally, closed day at low Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body under a long upper wick and almost no lower wick Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.85%), DJI (-0.78%), RUT (-0.73%), VIX (+8.22%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) and Health (XLV +0.03%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.32%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Surprisingly robust earnings reports from big retail before market open sent major indices on a rally in the morning. Still, the bullish exuberance couldn't hold on, and the indices closed the day with losses. Despite the downward pressure on the indexes, the growth stock list had a relatively good day. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.56% loss for the day but was able to turn in a higher high and higher low than the previous day. The index rose in the early morning but then fell the rest of the day, creating an upper wick in the morning but ending the day with a 2% closing range underneath a 61% red body. Volume was higher for the day, with intraday volume more elevated in the morning than in the afternoon. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 19, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Body: 61% Good: Thick green body shows buying after a gap down at open Bad: Gap down at open Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: All green body, barely visible upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.29%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (-0.78%), VIX (+3.94%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.35%) and Communications (XLC +0.16%) were top. Materials (XLB -1.53%) and Energy (XLE -2.49%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher You shake my nerves, and you rattle my brain! There is no question what investors worried about today. They took risk off the table at open ahead of the Fed minutes. Then morning comments from Fed member Quarles started to attract investors back in but at lowering volume. When the meeting minutes were released, volume popped back up as the market reacted. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.03% loss, much better than the -1.71% dip at open. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 95% green body and 98% closing range shows the buying throughout the day. There is the potential, as with 5/11, that the gap down caused some shorts to cover and take profits. But much of the action seemed to be centered around the 2 pm release of the Fed minutes. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 20, 2021 Facts: +1.77%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89% (w/gap), Body: 86% Good: No lower wick, thick green body with high closing range Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up at open, mostly green body with a short upper wick Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.06%), DJI (+0.55%), RUT (+0.64%), VIX (-6.81%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +1.71%) were top. Financials (XLF +0.05%) and Energy (XLE -0.15%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher A better-than-expected jobs report was enough to continue the trend in Technology and Communications stocks that started yesterday. Eyes remain on the Fed and inflation. Still, a drop in the US dollar and US treasury rates, in addition to lowering expectations from a few retailers, gave investors some relief that the economy was not overheating out of control. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.77% advance. Volume was lower, but the gap-up and higher high and higher low are both great signs. With the gap, the closing range was 89%. An 86% green body sits under a short upper wick formed late in the date. There is no visible lower wick. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 21, 2021 Facts: -0.48%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 95% Good: Higher high, higher low, lower volume on down day Bad: Selling throughout session, high at open, low near close Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Barely visible lower wick, no upper wick, mostly red body Advanced/Decline: Slightly more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (+0.36%), RUT (+0.34%), VIX (-2.52%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.99%) and Utilities (XLU +0.52%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.50%) and Technology (XLK -0.55%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways Big tech and growth stocks paused after two days of gains, while investors boosted recovery stocks after good economic data in the morning. The purchasing manager indexes for Manufacturing and Services were higher than expected, indicating an uptick in demand in both sectors. The Nasdaq started the day in the positive but ended with a -0.48% decline after a full day of selling. Volume was lower than the previous day. The Nasdaq did put in a higher high and higher low than Thursday. However, the candle is an almost entirely red body, with a 5% closing range. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) Are you tired of hearing about inflation yet? Well, it's still very much the focus of investors and driving the wild up-and-down movements in the Nasdaq. This week's most crucial moment was clearly on Wednesday at 2:00 pm when the Fed released the minutes from last month's meeting. Investors poured over the report looking between the lines for hints of inflation concerns and potential fed action to control it. On Monday and Tuesday, the Nasdaq retreated ahead of the Fed minutes release. Investors focused on cyclical sectors (XLE, XLB) on Monday and defensive sector sectors (XLRE, XLV, XLU) on Tuesday. The market opened with a gap down on Wednesday. Investors responded to the gap and slowly bought back stocks through the morning as volume dropped on the Nasdaq. At the 2:00 pm release of the fed minutes, volume immediately picked back up, and a rally began that lasted through Thursday. The rally also came with a change in the sector list. The growth sectors of Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) led from Wednesday morning through Thursday. On Friday, the growth sectors paused while some of the value plays had a chance to catch up. I'll include the Growth/Value chart that frequently shows up in the weekly review. In the chart, you can see the spike in growth relative to value on Wednesday and Thursday, with a slight retreat on Friday. There is not enough for a trend yet. And there is still question of which way the market will go in the next few weeks. The first question is in this chart. Is this spike in growth vs. value an indication of a trend? Have popular growth stocks found a bottom and ready to climb again? Or is it merely a quick spike, and investors will move back to the value trade? The Nasdaq advanced +0.31% on the lowest volume week thus far in 2021. The closing range of 73% is a good sign, while the inside week and thin green body show indecision in direction. The other three major indices all declined for the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.43%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.51%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.42%. The VIX volatility index closed the week with a +6.59% weekly gain. Sector performance provides some clues this week on how investors are thinking about inflation and the Fed. Like the market character changed around the Wednesday release of the Fed meeting minutes, the sectors also saw a change in leadership. The question remains if that new character sticks for the coming weeks or gets disrupted as the inflation story unfolds. Real Estate ( XLRE ), Health Care ( XLV ), and Utilities ( XLU ) top the list for the full week, and that reflects well the overall mood of investors. These sectors are used as defensive sectors. Regardless of whether economic conditions serve better cyclical stocks or growth stocks, the services in these defensive sectors are always required. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) is also up in that list and outperformed the S&P 500 index. For the remaining sectors, it's worth looking at performance before and after the Wednesday Fed release. Coming into the week, there was a clear focus on cyclical sectors, with Energy ( XLE ) and Materials ( XLB ) leading on Monday. Investors turned defensive on Tuesday, popping the defensive sectors to the top. And then the gap down at open came on Wednesday with shifting investments on lower volume leading into the meeting minutes release at 2p. After Wednesday, it's clear there was a change in sentiment. Technology ( XLK ) and Communications ( XLC ) came out of the gap-down and performed best through the end of the week, despite a small pullback for both on Friday. They performed well enough to end the week outperforming the S&P 500 index. That leaves the cyclical sectors at the bottom of the list. Materials ( XLB ), Industrials ( XLI ), and Energy ( XLE ) were the bottom three sectors. For these sectors, much rests on Biden's infrastructure plans passing through congress, but the proposals continue to be rejected by Republicans. It's reasonable to expect that with continued headwinds for the infrastructure bill, we'll see some downside for cyclical sectors, see inflation decelerate a bit, and give some life to growth stocks, even if for a short period. The US Treasury 30y and 10y yields declined for the week while the 2y yield rose. That tightened the spread between long and short-term yields. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) continues choppy trading with gains and losses this week. It ended the week at a -0.31% decline. Silver (SILVER) advanced +0.45% while Gold (GOLD) advanced +2.07%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined -2.65%. The material commodities continued to pull back from record highs two weeks ago. Timber (WOOD) declined -2.62%. Copper (COPPER1!) declined -4.30%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -3.52%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps Only Alphabet (GOOGL) is trading above its 10w moving average of the big four mega-caps, gaining +0.69% this week. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.61%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -1.20%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.61%. Note that the Nasdaq gained while the largest mega-caps in the index declined. The means the Nasdaq gains came from a broader set of stocks, a positive sign. However, having the big four mega-caps participate in gains would give a boost to investor sentiment. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. This week, all four recovery stocks declined. Do investors see the recovery as stalling, or do they see the recovery already priced into these stocks? Exxon Mobil (XOM) declined -3.04%. Marriott (MAR) dropped -2.99%. Delta Airlines (DAL) lost -2.38%. Carnival Cruise Lines declined -0.11%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I'll start tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). The major cryptocurrencies are in a two-week slide. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -20.48% this week. Ethereum (ETHUSD) is down -37.81%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) dropped -42.89%. Bitcoin Cash (BTHUSD) is down -45.85%. The first two are down nearly 50% from highs. The latter two are down more than 60% from highs. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) remained high, ending the week at 0.668. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains on the fear side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 44.21. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Fed member Brainard will speak in the morning, and Bostic will speak at noon. Lordstown Motors (RIDE) will report earnings on Monday. Tuesday Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales numbers will be released after the market opens on Tuesday. Intuit (INTU), AutoZone (AZO), Zscaler (ZS), Nordstrom (JWN), MakeMyTrip (MMYT), and UP Fintech (TIGR) will release earnings updates. Wednesday Crude Oil Inventories will be released on Wednesday after the market opens. Earnings releases will include Nvidia (NVDA), Pinduoduo (PDD), Snowflake (SNOW), Workday (WDAY), and Okta (OKTA). Thursday On Thursday, Durable Goods orders data will get an update. We will also get the revised GDP numbers for Q1, which should align with the previously released numbers. Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales will also get an update. Salesforce.com (CRM), Medtronic (MDT), Costco (COST), VMWare (VMW), Autodesk (ADSK), Dollar General (DG), Veeva Systems (VEEV), HP Inc (HPQ), Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Burlington Stores (BURL), GameStop (GME), and Gap (GPS) release earnings on Thursday. Friday Friday will bring another update on inflation with the PCE Price Index data. In addition, we will see updates for Goods Trade Balance, Personal Spending, Retail Inventories, and Consumer Sentiment. Big Lots (BIG) and Ehang Holdings (EH) will release earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side It looks like a sentiment change toward growth stocks occurred this past Wednesday when concerns about inflation did not come with any strong hints of monetary policy changes from the Fed. The Fed has pointed to several employment indicators suggesting that easy monetary policy will need to continue for some time until the economy fully recovers. It also seems inflation may be transitionary as the fed promised. Consumer confidence, retail numbers, and the retail earnings reports this week all point to a possible pullback from high inflation in the second half of the year. With the low prices for growth stocks, compared to 52-week highs, an all-clear signal could come with quite a rally as Investors rotate from value into growth. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Despite the gains this week, volume was lower, suggesting that big institutions are not yet accumulating. That means the brief rally for growth stocks could be short-lived. The big mega-caps did not benefit from the rally, and several met resistance at their 10w moving average lines and remained below the critical level. Wednesday may have been met with relief by investors, but sensitivity to inflation and any reaction from the Fed remains. If the infrastructure bill finds support with republicans, we can also expect rotation back into cyclical sectors that will benefit from the extra spending. The demand for commodities will drive prices higher and potentially cause more inflation. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq closed the week below the critical 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. The index climbed to 13,600 this week before hitting resistance and closing lower on Friday. Note the similarity to late February and early March when the index found support at 13,000, then resistance at 13,600 and dipped lower than 13,000 in the next several days. That's what I'll be watching for this week, hoping we head back to 14,000 instead. On the positive side, the levels are: The 21d EMA is at 13,525.47. The 50d MA is at 13,578.31. There is a resistance area between 13,600 and 13,700. The high of this past week was 13,616.58. The rally attempt of the previous week went to 13,828.62. Get above this level to end the sequence of lower highs. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. The all-time high is at 14,211.57 is the all-time high. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 10d MA is at 13,336.71. The low of this past week is 13,072.23. That low is just above the 13,000 support line. 12,786.81 is a low pivot point from the late March dip. Stay above this low to keep an upward trend since early March. 12,543.86 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I am still waiting for the Nasdaq to show some solid support from institutional investors. It's going to require broad gains, including mega-caps, mid-caps, and small-caps, on higher volume to get the index moving in an uptrend. That kind of support is necessary to carry many of the influential stocks past resistance areas. There is a good possibility that the index will move lower before a new uptrend occurs. That's not necessarily a bad thing if the index moves lower first, and we can end the months of sideways chop that tests a growth investor's endurance. Then after finding a solid bottom, the index and big tech and growth can have at least a few weeks of solid gains. Watch out for progress on the infrastructure bill and any more hints at inflation worries as potential catalysts to the downside. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/21Sector performance provides some clues this week on how investors are thinking about inflation and the Fed. Just like the market character changed around the Wednesday release of the Fed meeting minutes, the sectors also saw a change in leadership. It still remains to be seen if that new character sticks for the coming weeks, or gets disrupted as the inflation story unfolds. Real Estate (XLRE), Health Care (XLV), and Utilities (XLU) top the list for the full week, and that reflects well the overall mood of investors. These sectors are used as defensive sectors. Regardless of whether economic conditions serve better cyclical stocks or growth stocks, the services in these defensive sectors are always required. Consumer Staples (XLP) is also up in that list and outperformed the S&P 500 index. For the remaining sectors, it's worth looking at performance before and after the Wednesday Fed release. Coming into the week, there was a clear focus on cyclical sectors with Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) leading on Monday. Investors turned defensive on Tuesday, popping the defensive sectors to the top. And then the gap down at open came on Wednesday with shifting investments on lower volume leading into the meeting minutes release at 2p. After Wednesday, it's clear there was a change in sentiment. Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) came out of the gap-down and performed best through the end of the week, despite a small pullback for both on Friday. They performed well enough to end the week outperforming the S&P 500 index. That leaves the cyclical sectors at the bottom of the list. Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), and Energy (XLE) were the bottom three sectors. For these sectors, much rests on Biden's infrastructure plans passing through congress, but the proposals continue to be rejected by Republicans. It's reasonable to expect that with continued headwinds for the infrastructure bill, we'll see some downside for cyclical sectors, see inflation decelerate a bit, and give some life to growth stocks, even if for a short period.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/21Summary: Big tech and growth stocks paused after two days of gains, while investors boosted recovery stocks after good economic data in the morning. The purchasing manager indexes for Manufacturing and Services were higher than expected, indicating an uptick in demand in both sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 21, 2021 Facts: -0.48%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 95% Good: Higher high, higher low, lower volume on down day Bad: Selling throughout session, high at open, low near close Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Barely visible lower wick, no upper wick, mostly red body Advanced/Decline: Slightly more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (+0.36%), RUT (+0.34%), VIX (-2.52%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.99%) and Utilities (XLU +0.52%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.50%) and Technology (XLK -0.55%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech and growth stocks paused after two days of gains, while investors boosted recovery stocks after good economic data in the morning. The purchasing manager indexes for Manufacturing and Services were higher than expected, indicating an uptick in demand in both sectors. The Nasdaq started the day in the positive but ended with a -0.48% decline after a full day of selling. Volume was lower than the previous day. The Nasdaq did put in a higher high and higher low than Thursday. However, the candle is an almost entirely red body, with a 5% closing range. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) benefited from the economic data in the morning, advancing +0.36% for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) ended the day with a +0.34% gain. The small-cap index was up more than 1.3% in the morning. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.08% for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -2.52%. Financials (XLF +0.99%) and Utilities (XLU +0.52%) were the top sectors for the day. Cyclical sectors did well. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.50%) and Technology (XLK -0.55%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.31% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y treasure yield advanced. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined, Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -7.87%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -12.25%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.668. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps reversed yesterday's gains. Apple (AAPL) declined -1.48%. Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.53%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.37%. Alphabet (GOOGL) is the only of the four to remain above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, despite declining -0.56% today. Nvidia (NVDA), Bank of America (BAC), AT&T (T), and JP Morgan (JPM) were the top gaining mega-caps for today. Alibaba (BABA), Apple, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Tesla (TSLA) were at the bottom of the list. There were more decliners in the daily update growth list today. The top gainers included Crowdstrike (CRWD), Sumo Digital (SUMO), Nvidia (NVDA), and Fastly (FSLY). At the bottom of the list were FUTU Holding (FUTU), Etsy (ETSY), GrowGeneration (GRWG), and Ehang Holding (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Fed member Brainard will speak in the morning, and Bostic will speak at noon. Lordstown Motors (RIDE) will report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index was not able to hold above the 21d EMA today. It first hit resistance at 13,600, then moved below the 21d EMA. The moving average line then acted as resistance in two afternoon attempts by the index to move back above. The give-day trend-line points to a +0.60% advance for tomorrow. The one-day trend-line ends with a -0.75% decline. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -2.48% decline on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Excitement over the morning economic news allowed the Nasdaq to open in the positive. But the excitement faded along with prices throughout the day. The bullish higher high and higher low contrasts with a bearish red candle. The day brings to close an inside week for the Nasdaq. The weekly high and low is within the previous week's high and low. It shows investors are still undecided on the future of inflation and reactions from the Fed, moving in and out of big-tech and growth stocks that will be sensitive to any changes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
7
Daily Market Update for 5/20Summary: A better-than-expected jobs report was enough to continue the trend in Technology and Communications stocks that started yesterday. Eyes remain on the Fed and inflation. Still, a drop in the US dollar and US treasury rates, in addition to lowering expectations from a few retailers, gave investors some relief that the economy was not overheating out of control. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 20, 2021 Facts: +1.77%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89% (w/gap), Body: 86% Good: No lower wick, thick green body with high closing range Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up at open, mostly green body with a short upper wick Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.06%), DJI (+0.55%), RUT (+0.64%), VIX (-6.81%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +1.71%) were top. Financials (XLF +0.05%) and Energy (XLE -0.15%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A better-than-expected jobs report was enough to continue the trend in Technology and Communications stocks that started yesterday. Eyes remain on the Fed and inflation. Still, a drop in the US dollar and US treasury rates, in addition to lowering expectations from a few retailers, gave investors some relief that the economy was not overheating out of control. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.77% advance. Volume was lower, but the gap-up and higher high and higher low are both great signs. With the gap, the closing range was 89%. An 86% green body sits under a short upper wick formed late in the date. There is no visible lower wick. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.55%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.64%. The VIX volatility index declined -6.81%. Technology (XLK +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +1.71%) were the top sectors for the second day in a row. Only Energy (XLE -0.15%) declined for the day. Financials (XLF +0.05%) had a slight gain but was at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.47% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined, and the spread between the 10y and 2y tightened. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +9.92%, recovering from yesterday's dip. Ethereum (ETHUSD) rose +14.48%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.633. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 44.21 -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) rose +2.10% to close just below its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.56% and moved back above the 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) closed just below the 50d MA, with a +1.38% gain. Amazon(AMZN) moved above the 50d MA with a +0.49% advance. Tesla (TSLA) topped the mega-cap list for the first time in weeks. Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX), ASML Holding (ASML), and PayPal (PYPL) were also at the top of the list with greater than 2.5% gains. Only a handful of mega-caps lost for the day. Bank of America (BAC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Verizon (VZ), and United Health (UNH) were the worst losers of the day, but all declined less than 0.25%. Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), two solar energy stocks, are at the top of the daily update growth list for the second day in a row. Fiverr (FVRR) and SNAP (SNAP) are the third and fourth best of the day. Several growth stocks topped 5% gains. Only a few in the list had losses. Those include DoorDash (DASH), Chewy (CHWY), RH (RH), and Palantir (PLTR) at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday morning, the Purchasing Manager Index data for Services and Manufacturing will be available after the market opens. The data shows an expected increase/decrease in activity to meet customer demand in the two sectors. Existing Home Sales will also be released after the market opens. Deere & Company (DE), Foot Locker (FL), and Buckle (BKE) are on the shortlist of earnings reports for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index closed above the 21d EMA line today. It had first hit resistance at the line, then found support as the index faded a bit into the close. Holding this key support line is critical to ending the week positively. The one-day trend-line points to a +0.97% gain for tomorrow, taking the index above the 50d MA. The five-day trend line leads to a -0.85% loss. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -3.14% decline on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I'll take it. A positive day for the Nasdaq, and growth stocks, and broad overall gains in the market is very welcome after a few days of disappointing losses. It's not yet time to jump back in the deep end. I would wait for a day with similar characteristics today, but higher volume showing institutions are accumulating. Tomorrow is an options expiration day. Expect some changes in direction in the afternoon. Overall, I'll set my expectations for higher based on the past two days. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 5/19Summary: You shake my nerves, and you rattle my brain! There is no question what investors worried about today. They took risk off the table at open ahead of the Fed minutes. Then morning comments from Fed member Quarles started to attract investors back in but at lowering volume. When the meeting minutes were released, volume popped back up as the market reacted. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 19, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Body: 61% Good: Thick green body shows buying after a gap down at open Bad: Gap down at open Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: All green body, barely visible upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.29%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (-0.78%), VIX (+3.94%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.35%) and Communications (XLC +0.16%) were top. Materials (XLB -1.53%) and Energy (XLE -2.49%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview You shake my nerves, and you rattle my brain! There is no question what investors worried about today. They took risk off the table at open ahead of the Fed minutes. Then morning comments from Fed member Quarles started to attract investors back in but at lowering volume. When the meeting minutes were released, volume popped back up as the market reacted. Here is the intraday volume on the QQQ ETF before and after the Fed minutes were released: The Nasdaq closed with a -0.03% loss, much better than the -1.71% dip at open. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 95% green body and 98% closing range shows the buying throughout the day. There is the potential, as with 5/11, that the gap down caused some shorts to cover and take profits. But much of the action seemed to be centered around the 2 pm release of the Fed minutes. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the worst performance of the day with a -0.78% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.48%. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the day with a -0.29% loss. The VIX volatility index rose another +3.94% but recovered from a 22% intraday spike. Technology (XLK +0.35%) and Communications (XLC +0.16%) were the only gaining sectors for the day. Materials (XLB -1.53%) and Energy (XLE -2.49%) were the bottom two sectors. It's interesting to note that Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) led in the early morning before the major indices pivoted upward. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.44% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all rose for the day, having dropped in the early morning hours but then climbing again after the Fed minutes were released. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined, and Gold (GOLD) was flat. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) dropped nearly -30% in the morning before recording to around a -11% decline at the time of writing. Ethereum (ETHUSD) was down -45% and is now around a -23.5% loss for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.806. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) was able to recover from the morning dip and end the day with a +0.40% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) ended with a slight gain of +0.02%. Amazon (AMZN) lost -0.01% and Apple (AAPL) declined -0.13%. The latter three are all trading below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Alphabet is above its 50d MA but below its 21d EMA. Salesforce (CRM) topped the mega-cap list with a +3.27% gain. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Facebook (FB), and Intel (INTC) were also at the top of the list, with around 1% gains each. Tesla (TSLA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AT&T (T), and Nike (NKE) were at the bottom of the list. Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), two solar energy stocks, topped the daily update growth list with greater than 5% gains. Snowflake (SNOW) and Zynga (ZNGA) also were near the top of the list. CloudFlare (NET), Palantir (PLTR), and Ehang Holdings (EH) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data will be released Thursday. Earnings Reports include Tencent (TCEHY), Applied Materials (AMAT), Ross Stores (ROST), and Deckers Outdoor (DECK). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index recovered from the morning gap down but remained well below the key moving average lines. The early morning to afternoon gains created an upward sloping one-day trend-line that points to a +1.09% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line leads to a +0.46% gain. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -1.89% decline on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Worries about the Fed's reaction to inflation don't seem to go away, and today it was on display as trading volume shrank considerably as investors awaiting the release of the minutes from last month's Fed meeting. The minutes did mention the possibility of unwelcome inflation, which suggests some reaction from the Fed. But still, the overwhelming comments say that any tapering now of treasury buybacks could stunt the economic recovery. The index was choppy after the 2p release of the minutes, but volume popped up higher as investors consumed the new data. In the end, investors bought back into some riskier assets, sending big tech in the Technology and Communications sectors higher for the day. Cryptocurrencies recovered some of the morning losses. Treasury yields rose as investors sold the safe-haven asset. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
The Big 4, Update (SPX,NDX,RUT&DJI)Last weeks map performed just as planned, however we're now seeing an inverted W on most charts and a up trend from here wouldn't be impsossible. Bitcoin crashing could however set a fear in the market and create an even further downside. Keep an eye out, if it passes trough the inverted W formation it will likely go further down. DJI - Has support at 33300, looks decent... STOCH points to a it going a bit further down but shoulden't peak trough the support before a bounce. NDX - Still in a down-trend, though historically downtrends usually bounces trough the trend on the forth wave, I think we could still see some downside but to some limited degree- considering most stocks in the index is already down -60% since their tops and deadcat bounces are cmon. SPX - Right on support, though STOCH and RSI points towards a slight more downside. RUT - Technically looks pretty solid but once again, you never really know with Russell do you...
TVC:SPX
by Oerhortbegovad
3
Daily Market Update for 5/18Summary: Surprisingly robust earnings reports from big retail before market open sent major indices on a rally in the morning. Still, the bullish exuberance couldn't hold on, and the indices closed the day with losses. Despite the downward pressure on the indexes, the growth stock list had a relatively good day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 18, 2021 Facts: -0.56%, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Body: 61% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Couldn't hold morning rally, closed day at low Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body under a long upper wick and almost no lower wick Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.85%), DJI (-0.78%), RUT (-0.73%), VIX (+8.22%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) and Health (XLV +0.03%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.32%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Surprisingly robust earnings reports from big retail before market open sent major indices on a rally in the morning. Still, the bullish exuberance couldn't hold on, and the indices closed the day with losses. Despite the downward pressure on the indexes, the growth stock list had a relatively good day. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.56% loss for the day but was able to turn in a higher high and higher low than the previous day. The index rose in the early morning but then fell the rest of the day, creating an upper wick in the morning but ending the day with a 2% closing range underneath a 61% red body. Volume was higher for the day, with intraday volume more elevated in the morning than in the afternoon. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) led the losses for the day, declining -0.85%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.78%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.73%. The VIX volatility index rose another +8.22%. Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) and Health (XLV +0.03%) were the only sectors to gain for the day. Industrials (XLI -1.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.32%) were the bottom sectors. Energy continued last week's pattern of flip-flopping from top to bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.45%. The index compares the USD against other major currencies. While the US economy recovers, expect investors to load up on currencies in markets expected to rebound soon as they transition out of lockdowns and back into fully open economies. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined slightly. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined, and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) stayed flat while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.595. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.17%, closing right at its 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -1.16%, closing just below the 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) continues trading below both moving average lines, declining -1.12% today. Microsoft (MSFT) faired the best, only losing -0.86% today but still closing below both moving average lines. Walmart (WMT) topped the mega-cap list with a +2.17% gain after surprising investors with better than expected earnings in their release before the market open. Retailer Alibaba (BABA) was the second-best mega-cap with a +1.27% gain. Toyota Motor Company (TM ) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) round out the top four. At the bottom of the list were AT&T (T), Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Facebook (FB). Other retail reports were also positive, including Home Depot (HD). However, a lack of optimistic guidance and a dismal housing starts report put a damper on the positive report. More than half of the daily update growth stock list had gains today. Ehang Holdings (EH), Sumo Digital (SUMO), Snowflake (SNOW), and Crowdstrike (CRWD) were the top gainers for the day. Dr Horton (DHI) was at the bottom of the list with nearly a 4% decline after the housing starts report. GrowGeneration (GRWG), Facebook, Workday (WDAY) were also at the bottom of the growth list, all with more than 1% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories get an update on Wednesday. In the afternoon, FOMC member Bostic speaks, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released. Investors will look closely for wording that shows concern over inflation and any hints toward monetary policy changes. Cisco (CSCO), Lowe's (LOW), JD.com (JD), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Synopsys (SNPS), Vipshop (VIPS), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) report earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index attempted to rally toward the key moving average lines but faded late in the morning to close lower. The 21d EMA moved below the 50d MA, marking the downward trend. The five-day trend-line points to a +1.83% gain tomorrow. The one-day trend-line would result in a sideways move, with a slight -0.10% decline. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -1.71% decline on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up So far this week, we have a mix of signals. The higher high and higher low today are good after yesterday's indecisive candle. However, they fade from the morning rally, and a low closing range on higher volume shows much caution among investors. The defensive sectors leading for the day adds to the signal of caution. Maybe the positive retail earnings reports are just creating more fear that the economy is overheating. On the other hand, growth stocks fared pretty well in the market today. That could be from the declining US Dollar. However, I'd expect big tech might benefit from a declining US dollar as well, and we did not see that today. It could be that growth stocks declined so much that investors are just putting money into what they see as the bottom prices. Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list are down 50% or more from their 52-week highs. If investors see a bottom for growth stocks, it is time for a rotation from value back into growth. But expect any movement to be volatile as the market still watches inflation and the Fed very closely. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 5/17Summary: Monday started with a dip, just like the past several Mondays. This week's difference is that the bulls entered in the afternoon, bringing the major indices back to near their open. Small Caps performed best on the day as inflation still weighed on big tech and mid-cap growth. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 17, 2021 Facts: -0.38%, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 8% Good: Close in upper part of range, bulls took over in afternoon Bad: Lower high, selling most of day Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Tiny thin body over a long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.25%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (+0.11%), VIX (+4.84%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.32%) and Materials (XLB +0.88%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.79%) and Utilities (XLU -0.82%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Monday started with a dip, just like the past several Mondays. This week's difference is that the bulls entered in the afternoon, bringing the major indices back to near their open. Small Caps performed best on the day as inflation still weighed on big tech and mid-cap growth. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.38% loss on lower volume. The 85% closing range over an 8% green body is in the upper part of the candle over a long lower wick. The candle indicates the bulls weren't willing to let go, but still, there was indecision in the market. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed the best for the day, closing with a +0.11% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.25%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.16%. The VIX volatility index advanced +4.84%. The Energy sector (XLE) led for another day, advancing +2.32%. Materials (XLB) was the second-best sector with a +0.88%. 7 of the 11 sectors declined, with Communications (XLC) and Utilities (XLU) at the bottom of the list with -0.79% and -0.82% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.12%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced for the day. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.676. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced while Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) declined. Amazon rose +1.47% and closed above its 50d MA. Alphabet gained +0.46% and closed above its 21 EMA. Apple and Microsoft both closed below their 50d MA, with -0.93% and -1.20% declines. The top mega-caps for the day were Exxon Mobil (XOM), Merck & Co (MRK), Toyota Motor (TM ), and Amazon. The majority of mega-caps were down, with Comcast (CMCSA), AT&T (T), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Tesla (TSLA) at the bottom of the list. There were growth stocks that did well while others did not, perhaps depending on their sector. Lemonade (LMND), Chewy (CHWY), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), and Palantir (PLTR) were the top four. At the bottom of the list were Peloton (PTON), DraftKings (DKNG), RH (RH), and Square (SQ). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data will release on Tuesday. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data will update after market close. Earnings releases will include Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Sea (SE), Baidu (BIDU), Trip.com (TCOM), and Macy's (M). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index remained in about the same spot, below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines and above the 13,000 support area. The five-day trend-line points to a -0.24% decline for tomorrow. The one-day trend line is just below that, showing a -0.62% declined. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -2.55% decline on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Tax day was mostly uneventful. The indexes dropped buy then caught support, and the bulls bought back stocks at a discount into the late afternoon. The indecisive inside day means we'll have to wait until tomorrow for confirmation on a direction. The expectation is for sideways or higher, but the market could decide to go lower before it goes higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 5/10/2021 - 5/14/2021Summary: The focus was all on inflation this week. The updated consumer price index numbers were due on Wednesday, and investors entered the week expected the worst. On top of inflation, an oil pipeline closure on the east coast meant even more upward price pressure for consumers. Monday started the week with a terrible-looking marubozu candle which has no upper or lower wick. Prices went straight down from open to close. Utilities was the leading sector as investors took defensive positions. Five stocks declined for every advancing stock. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "The Meaning of Life." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 10, 2021 Facts: -2.55%, Volume higher, Closing range: 0%, Body: 100% Good: Nothing Bad: All red body, selling from open to close with a failed rally of the 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Marubozu red, no upper or lower wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.66%), RUT (+1.35%), VIX (-9.24%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.76%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.92%) and Technology (XLK -2.52%). Expectation: Lower Inflation looms over big tech and growth stocks like an approaching hurricane, keeping investors wondering when and how big it will hit. Last week's jobs data supported the government's case that there is still support needed for economic recovery and that inflation is transitionary. But a shutdown oil pipeline over the weekend has investors worried. And the future updates on consumer and producer price index data are causing them to take a cautious stance. The result was a big hit to big tech and growth stocks as the Nasdaq closed with a -2.55% decline on higher volume. The ominous marubozu candle has no upper and lower wick. It is 100% red body with a 0% closing range. This high of the day was the open, and the low of the day was the close. There was a brief rally as the index hit the 50d moving average, but it was short-lived and failed to send the index below the key support line. Five stocks declined for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89%, Body: 87% Good: Solid green body as bulls take over after gap down Bad: Lower high, lower low, lower close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick green body with short upper wick and high closing range Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.87%), DJI (-1.36%), RUT (-0.26%), VIX (+11.09%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +0.33%) and Communications (XLC -0.29%) were top. Financials (XLF -1.77%) and Energy (XLE -2.57%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower A gap down must have shocked the bulls into action as the major indices crawled their way back up from morning lows. The results show a rotation happened underneath a market sell-off. Growth stocks benefited from the rotation, while the broader market had more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq closed down -0.09% on lower volume. Despite a thick green-bodied candle, the lower high, lower low, and lower close continue a downtrend that's in its ninth day. The body covers 87% of the candle with a closing range of 89% under a thin upper wick. Two stocks declined for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 12, 2021 Facts: -2.67%, Volume lower, Closing range: 10%, Body: 64% Good: Nothing Bad: Lower high, lower low, lower close, all day selling Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Longer upper wick over a tick red body, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: Five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.14%), DJI (-1.99%), RUT (-3.26%), VIX (+26.33%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.48%) and Health (XLV -0.94%) were top. Technology (XLK -2.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.39%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Consumer price index data was higher than expected, which is excellent for the US dollar, but sent investors into a selling frenzy as they reacted to higher inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates. It's a conflicting mix of being glad the economy is recovering and trying to price in the impact to valuations and potential reactions by the Fed to an overheated economy. The Nasdaq closed down -2.67% on the fourth day in a row of lower highs, lower lows, and lower closes. The closing range of 10% comes underneath a 64% red body, and a long upper wick formed in a quick but short-lived rebound at open. The selling pressure existed throughout the day as five stocks declined for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 13, 2021 Facts: +0.72%, Volume lower, Closing range: 49%, Body: 11% Good: Higher close, support at 13,000 Bad: Negative red body, indecisive after swings up and down intraday on lower volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Spinning top, inside day with a thin red body and long upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.22%), DJI (+1.29%), RUT (+1.68%), VIX (-16.17%) Sectors: Utilities (+1.93%) and Industrial (XLI +1.87%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.71%) and Energy (XLE -1.22%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Buy the dip? That seems to be what drove prices higher today on optimism after a positive jobs report. But caution is still in the market with Utilities as the leading sector, growth stocks essentially not participating, and an advance/decline ratio still below 1.0. The Nasdaq closed higher but on lower volume, advancing +0.72% for the day. The indecisive candle has a thin red body nearly in the middle of the long upper and lower wicks. The closing range is 49%, with a narrow 11% red body. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 14, 2021 Facts: +2.32%, Volume lower, Closing range: 86%, Body: 80% Good: Higher high, higher low, buying all day until just before close Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body under a small upper wick. Tiny lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More than three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.49%), DJI (+1.06%), RUT (+2.47%), VIX (-18.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.10%) and Technology (XLK +2.20%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.44%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher A lighter volume but positive day followed lower than expected economic indicators, including Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment. Perhaps the economic recovery is pausing as consumers react to the increases in prices. A little water on the fire could be good news to investors who are afraid things are overheating. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.32% advance on lower volume. The thick green body over a tiny lower wick represents the buying throughout the day. A short upper wick came in the last hour of trading as investors took profits heading into the weekend. There were more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The focus was all on inflation this week. The updated consumer price index numbers were due on Wednesday, and investors entered the week expected the worst. On top of inflation, an oil pipeline closure on the east coast meant even more upward price pressure for consumers. Monday started the week with a terrible-looking marubozu candle which has no upper or lower wick. Prices went straight down from open to close. Utilities was the leading sector as investors took defensive positions. Five stocks declined for every advancing stock. Tuesday opened with a gap down and then a seemingly bullish day as the index climbed back to the previous day's close. What most likely happened was many shorts taking profits. Just as a gap up is usually following by profit-taking on long positions, a gap down will often cause shorts to buy back stocks to cover their positions and take profits. The exceptional performance of highly shorted growth stocks on Tuesday is evidence of the profit-taking. Wednesday was inflation day. The consumer price index grew higher than expected, and it sent investors into a frenzy, causing the index to dip once more. For the second day this week, five stocks declined for every advancing stock. As expected, the producer price index also came in higher than analyst expectations. But it seemed not as much of a surprise, and the index found a support level at 13,000, tested it mid-day, and then closed near the open. The inside day showed an indecisive market with reactions to better employment numbers, mixed with nervousness around the inflation impact. Utilities led the sector list again. Then on Friday, an interesting thing happened. Economic data was worse than expected. Retail sales data for April went down instead of up, and Consumer Sentiment for May was lower than expected. But it seemed investors loved the news. It could be that inflation truly is temporary, as the Fed has been saying. Or at least it supported the idea that there is still more time needed before declaring a win for the economic recovery. www.tradingview.com The Nasdaq declined -2.34% for the week. The closing range of 62% shows the recovery on Thursday and Friday, bringing the index back into the upper half of the trading range. The candle is nearly identical to the previous week's candle, which had a similar sell-off in the first half of the week with some support in the latter part of the week. All four major indices we track declined for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -1.14%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.39%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -2.07% but was down over 6% in the middle of the week. The VIX volatility index spiked +73.34% during the week but ended the week with just a +12.7% gain. It was a mix of defensive and cyclical stocks that led the sector list this week. Only three sectors ended the week with gains, while the high growth sectors took the most significant declines. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) topped the list, with Utilities ( XLU ) in fourth place. Both are defensive sectors for investors. Real Estate ( XLRE ) was lower in the list but still outperformed the sectors. Financials ( XLF ) and Materials ( XLB ) joined Consumer Staples as the only sectors to end the week with gains. Technology ( XLK ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) were at the bottom of the list. Both contain high growth companies that are likely to be impacted by inflation and potential increases in interest rates. They started to recovery on Thursday and Friday after the US Dollar and Treasury interest rates dropped. The US Treasury 30y, 10y, and 2y yields all rose for the week. The spreads widened a bit between long and short-term yields. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices declined sharply in the middle of the week but recovered to end the week with a small loss. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.67% on Wednesday but then retreated, ending the week with a +0.08% advance. Silver (SILVER) declined -0.10% while Gold (GOLD) advanced +0.60%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +0.48%. The material commodities pulled back from record highs. Timber (WOOD) declined -2.81%. Copper (COPPER1!) declined -1.71%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -3.11%. Investors seemed to rotate back and forth between growth and value this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps continued to slide this week but outperformed the Nasdaq overall. Microsoft (MSFT) dipped below the 10w MA but closed above the line, losing only -1.71% for the week. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2.09%, closing below its 10w MA line. Apple (AAPL) dipped below its 10w and 40w MA but ended above both, closing the week with a -2.12% loss. Alphabet (GOOGL) was the only of the four to underperform the index, declining -3.13%. However, Alphabet stayed above the 10w moving average line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. The results were mixed this week. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) gained +1.64% but remained below its 10w MA line after a weekly lower high and lower low. Delta Airlines (DAL) had a similar pattern but advanced only +0.43%. Marriot (MAR) declined -2.32%. Exxon Mobile (XOM) led energy stocks lower for the week, closing with a -2.66% weekly loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I'll start tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, which is tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). Nothing to note at the moment other than Bitcoin is bouncing between 60,000 and support at around 49,000. Ethereum is pulling back slightly from a 70% rally over the past two weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose this week to its highest daily level since November. It recovered by the end of the week to end at 0.658. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side but not yet approaching extreme fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is at 46.86 after moving above 100 two weeks ago. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday The week will open with Manufacturing data on Monday morning. Several FOMC members will speak after the market opens. Tencent Music (TME), Niu Tech (NIU), Desktop Metal (DM), Fisker (FSR), Riot Blockchain (RIOT) will report earnings on Monday. Tuesday Building Permits and Housing Starts data will release on Tuesday. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data will update after market close. Earnings releases will include Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Sea (SE), Baidu (BIDU), Trip.com (TCOM), and Macy's (M). Wednesday Crude Oil Inventories get an update on Wednesday. In the afternoon, FOMC member Bostic speaks, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released. Investors will look closely for wording that shows concern over inflation and any hints toward monetary policy changes. Cisco (CSCO), Lowe's (LOW), JD.com (JD), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Synopsys (SNPS), Vipshop (VIPS), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) report earnings. Thursday Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data will be released Thursday. Earnings Reports include Tencent (TCEHY), Applied Materials (AMAT), Ross Stores (ROST), and Deckers Outdoor (DECK). Friday On Friday morning, the Purchasing Manager Index data for Services and Manufacturing will be released just aftermarket open. The data shows an expected increase/decrease in activity to meet customer demand in the two sectors. Existing Home Sales will also be released after the market opens. Deere & Company (DE), Foot Locker (FL), and Buckle (BKE) are on the shortlist of earnings reports for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Now that investors have a complete picture of inflation for the month, they can focus on other data points. They can focus on which sectors are performing well and which stocks have had good earnings results and show additional growth this year. The lower-than-expected retail sales and consumer sentiment data on Friday poured a little water on the fire burning around inflation. That will provide some relief for investors overly worried about the impact of inflation and the prospect for higher interest rates. As the dollar came back down in value after spiking on Wednesday, big tech and growth stocks found support and healthy gains. As the value trade deflates on lower retail and consumer sentiment data, growth stocks could benefit, boosting the Nasdaq. The could accelerate if investors decide now is the time to buy these stocks at a reduced price. The Fed is still on our side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side The index lost several key support levels this past week and has much to prove before investor confidence returns. The put/call ratio remains higher than in recent months, showing investors are nervous about what's to come. That nervousness could mean we have not hit the bottom of this pull-back yet. The increases in the index this past week came on lower volume. That could be because the gains were mainly coming from shorts covering positions vs. an actual bullish rally. If so, the support could be weak, and another leg lower may be in store. The Fed can flip sides at any time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq dropped below the 50d MA and found support at the 13,000 level. That 13,000 level is a crucial area to watch. On the positive side, the levels are: The 10d MA moved below the 21d EMA and 50d MA, marking the sudden drop. It's currently at 13,487.41 and the first critical level to reach. The 50d MA is at 13,539.94. The 21d EMA is at 13,598.43. The high of this past week was 13,687.93. The rally attempt of the previous week went to 13,828.62. Get above this level to end the sequence of lower highs. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. The all-time high is at 14,211.57 is the all-time high. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The low of this past week is 13,002.54. That low is just above the 13,000 support line. 12,786.81 is a low pivot point from the late March dip. Stay above this low to keep an upward trend since early March. 12,479.80 is the 200d MA. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The inflation storm hit this week, and it was a rough ride for growth investors. Thankfully, we found some support on Thursday and Friday and hope that the bulls are coming back in to buy stocks at a discount. The big question is whether all the news on an overheating economy is baked in now and the market will start to make another leg up. Or will the economic data continue to shake investors out of equities? Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 5/14Summary: A lighter volume but positive day followed lower than expected economic indicators, including Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment. Perhaps the economic recovery is pausing as consumers react to the increases in prices. A little water on the fire could be good news to investors who are afraid things are overheating. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 14, 2021 Facts: +2.32%, Volume lower, Closing range: 86%, Body: 80% Good: Higher high, higher low, buying all day until just before close Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body under a small upper wick. Tiny lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More than three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.49%), DJI (+1.06%), RUT (+2.47%), VIX (-18.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.10%) and Technology (XLK +2.20%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.44%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A lighter volume but positive day followed lower than expected economic indicators, including Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment. Perhaps the economic recovery is pausing as consumers react to the increases in prices. A little water on the fire could be good news to investors who are afraid things are overheating. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.32% advance on lower volume. The thick green body over a tiny lower wick represents the buying throughout the day. A short upper wick came in the last hour of trading as investors took profits heading into the weekend. There were more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The major indices all did well for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.49%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +1.06%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the best performing, ending the day with a +2.47% gain. The VIX volatility index declined another -18.68%. Flip-flopping from top to bottom throughout the week, the Energy sector (XLE +3.10%) is back on top Friday. Technology (XLK +2.20%) followed closely behind after losing ground through most of the week. All sectors gained for the day. Utilities (XLU +0.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.44%) were at the bottom of the list as investors focused on riskier assets. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.46%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined for a second day. The yield curve is flattening again after steepening earlier in the week. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced just slightly. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.658. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is at 46.86 after moving above 100 two weeks ago. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps advanced. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) both closed back above their 50d MA, gaining +1.98% and +2.11%, respectively. Alphabet (GOOGL) moved back above its 21d EMA, advancing +2.21%. Amazon (AMZN) closed just below the 50d MA, gaining +1.94%. Topping the mega-cap list are Nvidia (NVDA), ASML Holding (ASML), Facebook (FB), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). The top four growth stocks all gained more than 10%. DoorDash (DASH) rose gained 20%. Chinese fintech firms UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the list, with GrowGeneration (GRWG) and Snowflake (SNOW) rounding out the top five. Only one stock in the daily update list declined, Ehang Holdings (EH) lost -1.45. Hyre (HYRE) is not on the daily list but might need to be added, gaining 44.57% on a massive earnings beat. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The week will open with Manufacturing data on Monday morning. Several FOMC members will speak after the market opens. Tencent Music (TME), Niu Tech (NIU), Desktop Metal (DM), Fisker (FSR), Riot Blockchain (RIOT) will report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index made a move back toward the 50d moving average line today but couldn't quite make it that high on the lower volume. If the one-day trend-line continues on Monday, it points to a +1.43% gain that takes the index back above both the 21d EMA and the 50d MA. The five-day trend line leads to a -2.13% decline. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -2.88% decline on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been a hectic week, and it feels good to have a few days over the weekend to take a deep breath. The gains on Thursday and Friday are a relief to see, but there is still much to prove. Going into next week, I want to see another move up, but on higher volume and continued breath across equities. The lowered retail sales and consumer expectations may be just the thing investors needed to look away from inflation for a while. We'll take a closer look at this in the Week in Review. Have a great weekend! Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/13Summary: Buy the dip? That seems to be what drove prices higher today on optimism after a positive jobs report. But caution is still in the market with Utilities as the leading sector, growth stocks essentially not participating, and an advance/decline ratio still below 1.0. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 13, 2021 Facts: +0.72%, Volume lower, Closing range: 49%, Body: 11% Good: Higher close, support at 13,000 Bad: Negative red body, indecisive after swings up and down intraday on lower volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Spinning top, inside day with a thin red body and long upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.22%), DJI (+1.29%), RUT (+1.68%), VIX (-16.17%) Sectors: Utilities (+1.93%) and Industrial (XLI +1.87%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.71%) and Energy (XLE -1.22%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Buy the dip? That seems to be what drove prices higher today on optimism after a positive jobs report. But caution is still in the market with Utilities as the leading sector, growth stocks essentially not participating, and an advance/decline ratio still below 1.0. The Nasdaq closed higher but on lower volume, advancing +0.72% for the day. The indecisive candle has a thin red body nearly in the middle of the long upper and lower wicks. The closing range is 49%, with a narrow 11% red body. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the day among the major indices, with a +1.68% advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +1.29%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.22%. All four of our indices had inside days, with lower highs and higher lows. The VIX volatility index retreated -16.17%. Energy (XLE -1.22%) moved back to the bottom of the sector list, the only losing sector of the day. That comes after being the only gaining sector on Wednesday. Utilities (+1.93%) and Industrial (XLI +1.87%) were the top sectors for the day. The Utilities sector often tops the list when investors are taking defensive positions. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.06%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined for the day. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.760. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 46.86 after moving above 100 two weeks ago. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps advanced. Apple (AAPL) rose +1.79%. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.69%. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +0.30%. All three neared their 50d MA but retreated from the line before close. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +1.31% and is the only of the four big mega-caps to remain above the 50d MA. ASML Holding (ASML), Home Depot (HD), JP Morgan (JPM), and Oracle (ORCL) were the top mega-caps of the day. At the bottom of the list were Alibaba (BABA), Tesla (TSLA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Nvidia (NVDA). Growth stocks had a tough day. The ones that had gains included Lemonade (LMND), Peloton (PTON), DR Horton (DHI), and PayCom (PAYC). Fiverr (VFR), Sumo Logic (SUMO), JD.com (JD), and NIO (NIO) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday brings an update to Core Retail Sales for April. Export/Import Price Index data will also be released. Closer to open, we will get updates on Industrial Production and Business Inventories data. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment numbers for May will come after the market open. Another large round of Japanese earnings reports comes on Friday. UP fintech (TIGR) will also report on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq tested the 13,000 area again and found support, closing above the area. If the one-day trend-line and the trend-line from the 4/29 high continue, the index will decline -0.83% decline tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -2.41% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Although the indexes ended the days with gains, the choppy ride and the low volume raise some alarms. Is this a pivot point to the upside or simply a pause on the way down? Indeed, there is good news in the jobs recovery, and we'll be likely to see increased retail sales tomorrow. But that may stoke more inflation fears and send investors further into defensive mode. You could say that today was a positive expectation breaker since my expectation was for Sideways or Lower. Still, the inside day, thin red body and weak volume, plus the number of declining stocks, don't feel positive. So I'm still setting an expectation for sideways or lower tomorrow and waiting for the index to prove itself. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 5/12Summary: Consumer price index data was higher than expected which is great for the US dollar, but sent investors into a selling frenzy as they reacted to higher inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates. It's a conflicting mix of being glad the economy is recovering, but also trying to price in the impact to valuations and potential reactions by the Fed to an overheated economy. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 12, 2021 Facts: -2.67%, Volume lower, Closing range: 10%, Body: 64% Good: Nothing Bad: Lower high, lower low, lower close, all day selling Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Longer upper wick over a tick red body, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: Five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.14%), DJI (-1.99%), RUT (-3.26%), VIX (+26.33%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.48%) and Health (XLV -0.94%) were top. Technology (XLK -2.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.39%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer price index data was higher than expected which is great for the US dollar, but sent investors into a selling frenzy as they reacted to higher inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates. It's a conflicting mix of being glad the economy is recovering, but also trying to price in the impact to valuations and potential reactions by the Fed to an overheated economy. The Nasdaq closed down -2.67% on the fourth day in a row of lower highs, lower lows and lower closes. The closing range of 10% comes underneath a 64% red body and a long upper wick formed in a quick but short-lived rebound at open. The selling pressure existed throughout the day as give stocks declined for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) took the worst hit for the day with a -3.26% decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -2.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DHI) lost -1.99%. The VIX volatility index rose +26.33%. In a flip from the previous day, Energy (XLE +0.48%) went from the bottom of the sector list to being the only sector to end today with a gain. Health (XLV -0.94%) was the next best sector even though losing almost 1% for the day. Only Materials (XLB +0.33%) ended the day with gains while Communications (XLC -0.29%) was the second best sector. Financials (XLF -1.77%) and Energy (XLE -2.57%) moved the bottom of the sector list. Dominated by big tech and high growth companies that are impacted by inflation and higher interest rates, thhe Technology (XLK -2.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.39%) sectors were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.67%. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury yields all rose for the day and the yield curve steepened. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.978. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved well into the Fear side, but still short of Extreme Fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined. Only Alphabet (GOOGL) remains above its 50d moving average line, declining -3.08% today. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) both lost -2.49%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -2.23%. Only a few mega-caps had gains for the day, with Pfizer (PFE), Toyota Motor (TM ), Chevron (CVX) and Abbvie (ABBV) topping the list. ASML Holding (ASML), Tesla (TSLA), Home Depot (HD) and Nvidia (NVDA) were at the bottom of the list. None of the daily update growth stocks had gains for the day. Best performing were Ehang Holdings (EH), Alibaba (BABA), Facebook (FB) and Sumo Logic (SUMO). At the bottom of the list was Fastly (FSLY), FUTU Holding (FUTU) and Lemonade (LMND), all with greater than 10% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Produce Price Index data will be released in the morning, which is a leading indicator to consumer prices and another input on inflation worries. The weekly update on Jobless Claims also comes in the morning. Earnings Reports include Alibaba (BABA), Walt Disney (DIS), AirBnB (ABNB), Coinbase (COIN), DoorDash (DASH), Farfetch (FTCH), Celsius (CELH), and DermTech (DMTK). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to retreat below the 50d moving average line. It closed today just above the 13,000 support line which was first acted as resistance in December, turned to a support area in January. The index dipped below the line twice since that time but then quickly moved back above. Returning to the midpoint of the trend-line from the 4/29 high would result in a +0.72% advance. The five-day trend line points to a -0.13% decline tomorrow, a relative sideways move. The one-day trend, if it continues, would result in a -1.41% decline, busting through 13,000 support. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I wrote yesterday that I hoped the worst of inflation was already priced in and possibly inflation would be less than expected or at least at expectation. Well the core consumer price index showed a worst picture than expected. After the data was released, flipping back to the pre-market QQQ chart was enough to tell you how the rest of the day would go. Red. Tomorrow is produce price index data, and we are somewhat in the same boat. If the data is lower than expected, that should be some positive for investors. But if the index is more than expected, those prices would show up in consumer prices further down the road and indicate no soon end to inflation. The Fed believes inflation is transitionary and will move back below 2% in the second half of the year. Some analysts would disagree. You can decide who you want to believe. Or just follow the master fortune teller: the market. Do expect a rough ride. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
The Big 4, TA: NDX, SPX, DJI & RUTUS Indices falls hard as CPI hits 11 year record high. NDX: Suggests 1-2% bounce to its 200 MA then continue its path downhill for support at around 12700/12300. SPX: Support at around 4050, if it goes trough next support is around 4000. (Had clear bearish divergence at top) DJI: Should bounce to resistance at around 50 MA, then continue its path down for support at 33000. RUT: Shoulder head pattern with bearish divergence at top, support at 2110, but let's be honest it will prob go trough. Summary: Should see a bounce up in most indices tomorrow/friday. I suggest also having an eye on rates as their looking mighty fine for a melt up.
TVC:DJI
by Oerhortbegovad
6
Daily Market Update for 5/11Summary: A gap down must have shocked the bulls into action as the major indices crawled their way back up from morning lows. The results show a rotation happened underneath a market sell-off. Growth stocks benefited from the rotation while the broader market had more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89%, Body: 87% Good: Solid green body as bulls take over after gap down Bad: Lower high, lower low, lower close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick green body with short upper wick and high closing range Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.87%), DJI (-1.36%), RUT (-0.26%), VIX (+11.09%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +0.33%) and Communications (XLC -0.29%) were top. Financials (XLF -1.77%) and Energy (XLE -2.57%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A gap down must have shocked the bulls into action as the major indices crawled their way back up from morning lows. The results show a rotation happened underneath a market sell-off. Growth stocks benefited from the rotation while the broader market had more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq closed down -0.09% on lower volume. Despite a thick green-bodied candle, the lower high, lower low and lower close continue a downtrend that's in its ninth day. The body covers 87% of the candle with a closing range of 89% under a thin upper wick. Two stocks declined for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the next best major index with a -0.26% decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.87%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) closed with a -1.36%, gapping down after setting a new all-time high yesterday. The VIX volatility index advanced +11.09% after being up more than 20% intraday. Only Materials (XLB +0.33%) ended the day with gains while Communications (XLC -0.29%) was the second best sector. Financials (XLF -1.77%) and Energy (XLE -2.57%) moved the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.12%. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury yields all rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.865. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains at neutral, moving just slightly to the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) was the only big four mega-cap to gain for the day, advancing +1.05% to get back above the 50d MA after gapping down at open. Apple (APPL) declined -0.74%, closing below its 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.38% but was able to climb back above the 40d MA before close. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.95% and closed below its 21d EMA. At the top of the mega-cap list were PayPal (PYPL), Netflix (NFLX), Adobe (ADBE) and Amazon (AMZN). Most mega-caps declined for the day. The biggest decliners include Exxon Mobil (XOM), Oracle (ORCL), Home Depot (HD) and Chevron (CVX). Growth stocks had a great day, especially considered against the major indices. Fastly (FSLY), Palantir (PLTR), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Fiverr (FVRR), and Chewy (CHWY) were top gainers with advances above 5%. All of these could be marking bottom pivots if rotation continues into growth. At the bottom of the growth stock list were Draft Kings (DKNG), RH (RH), GrowGeneration (GRWG) and DR Horton (DHI). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Price Index data for April will be released on Wednesday. An indicator of inflation, the numbers will be watched closely. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated in the morning after market open. The 10y treasure note auction will be in the afternoon. Toyota Motor (TM) along with a large number of Japanese company earnings reports will be released on Wednesday. Some other interesting reports will include Dynatrace (DT) and Bumble (BMBL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq remains below the 50d moving average line. The one-day trend, if it continues, would result in a +1.69% gain. That would bring the index back above the 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a -0.36% decline tomorrow. Following the trend-line from the 4/29 high would result in a -0.83% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's not clear to me why investors decided to jump back into growth stocks today. Perhaps they see a bottom and wanted to catch it. Or it's possible that a record amount of shorts on passive instruments such as ETFs is reversing and a short squeeze is underway. Or even a gamma squeeze as market makers cover the positions. Highly shorted ETFs have included tech and growth stocks as well as the QQQ ETF itself. So predicting where things will go next may be difficult. Expect a reaction, for better or worse, to the consumer price index data being released tomorrow, which will provide a view on inflation. I have some hope that the worst is already priced in and if the data shows less inflation than expected, we could get a boost. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/10Summary: Inflation looms over big tech and growth stocks like an approaching hurricane, keeping investors wondering when and how big it will hit. Last week's jobs data supported the government's case that there is still support needed for economic recovery and that inflation is transitionary. But a shutdown oil pipeline over the weekend has investors worried. And the coming updates on consumer and producer price index data are causing them to take a cautious stance. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 10, 2021 Facts: -2.55%, Volume higher, Closing range: 0%, Body: 100% Good: Nothing Bad: All red body, selling from open to close with a failed rally of the 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Marubozu red, no upper or lower wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.66%), RUT (+1.35%), VIX (-9.24%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.76%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.92%) and Technology (XLK -2.52%). Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Inflation looms over big tech and growth stocks like an approaching hurricane, keeping investors wondering when and how big it will hit. Last week's jobs data supported the government's case that there is still support needed for economic recovery and that inflation is transitionary. But a shutdown oil pipeline over the weekend has investors worried. And the coming updates on consumer and producer price index data are causing them to take a cautious stance. The result was a big hit to big tech and growth stocks as the Nasdaq closed with a -2.55% decline on higher volume. The ominous marubozu candle has no upper and lower wick. It is 100% red body with a 0% closing range. The high of the day was the open and the low of the day was the close. There was a brief rally as the index hit the 50d moving average, but it was short and failed sending the index below the key support line. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also suffered from investors reducing risk, declining -2.59% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) was the least impacted with a -0.10% decline. The VIX volatility index advanced +17.80% for the day. Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.76%) were top sectors for the day as investors took defensive positions. Communications (XLC -1.92%) and Technology (XLK -2.52%) were the big losers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced slightly, gaining +0.05% after last week's dip. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury yields all rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) was flay while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.693. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest loss with a -3.07% decline and closed below its 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) declined -2.58%, closing right at the 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -2.56%, closing right at the 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) lost -2.09%, closing below the 21d EMA but above the 50d MA. Not all mega-caps declined for the day. Proctor & Gamble (PG), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) held the top spots with over 1% gains. At the bottom of the list were Tesla (TSLA), ASML Holding (ASML), Facebook (FB) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). There were four stocks in the daily update growth list that gained for the day. Dr Horton (DHI) has been consistently done well on high demand in housing. The other three, Peloton (PTON), Etsy (ETSY), and Fastly (FSLY) were all in a very oversold state after sell-offs last week. At the bottom of the growth stock list were Lemonade (LMND), UP Fintech (TIGR), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and Digital Turbine (APPS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, we will get the Monthly OPEC Report and the EIA Shot-Term Energy Outlook. The JOLTS Job Openings report for March will be released just after market open. FOMC Members are scheduled to speak throughout the day. There's also a 3y note-auction which is not quite as important as the 10y, but may be viewed as a preview for the longer term auction performance. Earnings releases will include Electronic Arts (EA), Palantir (PLTR), Unity Software (U), Quantumscape (QS), Plug Power (PLUG), Upstart (UPST), Lemonade (LMND), Open Lending (LPRO), and SelectQuote (SLQT). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq fell below the 50d moving average line today after failing to keep above the 21d EMA on Friday. I've removed the trend line from the 3/5 low and added a trend line from the 4/29 high. The five-day trend line points to a +1.48% recovery gain tomorrow. Following the trend-line from the 4/29 high would result in a sideways move tomorrow. That could be likely as investors wait for further input from economic data on Wednesday. The one-day trend line points to a -1.02% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The uncertainty around inflation continues to be a drag on big tech and growth stocks. Not only does it drag down the future value of earnings potential (which will impact growth stocks more than value stocks), but it also tests investors trust of the fed not to raise interest rates. It's a certainty that if the Fed mentions anything around monetary policy changes at this point, that investors will react severely. So what can you do? First of all, you could just go to cash and wait for better news. That news might come on Wednesday and/or Thursday if consumer and producer index data is lower than expected. The market seems to be pricing in the worst, so there's a good chance for a correction to the upside if the data shows less inflation. But you can also just stay focused on the stocks in your portfolio. Which ones are performing better than others and seem to be less impacted by inflation news? As inflation numbers go up, it's likely those stocks will continue have better relative strength. Keep stop losses in place to protect against any sudden rotations back to higher risk segments. If you get shaken out of a position, consider holding cash instead of entering new positions until the trend changes. Above all, always follow your system and your rules for investing your money. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 5/3/2021 - 5/7/2021 Summary: The market is the great fortune teller, always trying to price in the future, not the present. We saw that in action this week in several ways. The first was with Janet Yellen's comments on Tuesday that interest rate hikes might be needed in the future. That sent investors into a frenzy sell-off before she walked back the comments. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 3, 2021 Facts: -0.48%, Volume lower, Closing range: 8%, Body: 85% Good: Held above the 21d EMA Bad: Lower high, lower low, could not stay above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.27%), DJI (+0.70%), RUT (+0.49%%), VIX (-1.61%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.75%) and Materials (XLB +1.49%) were top sectors. Communications (XLC -0.53%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.54%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The cyclical sectors soared. The others did not. A rotation into reopening and cyclical stocks played well for all the major indexes except the Nasdaq which is heavy in big-tech and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -0.48% on lower volume. A brief rally attempt in the morning brought the index above 14,000 before selling off and testing the 21d EMA several times before closing just above the intraday lows. The thick red body covers 85% of the candle is surrounded by a short upper and lower wick with a closing range of 8%. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 4, 2021 Facts: -1.88%, Volume higher, Closing range: 37% (w/gap), Body: 45% Good: Bounced off 50d moving average line Bad: Gap down on news, high volume distribution Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: Almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.67%), DJI (+0.06%), RUT (-1.28%), VIX (+6.39%) Sectors: Materials (+1.09%) and Financials (XLF +0.80%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.04%) and Technology (XLK -1.79%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market sold off sharply at open after comments from Janet Yellen suggested that interest rates might need to increase to keep the economy from overheating. Investors fled sectors more sensitive to interest rate hikes and rotated into the cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq opened with a gap-down and closed the day with a -1.88% decline on much higher volume. The index continued to decline after open until it hit the 50d moving average and found support through the afternoon. The result is a long lower wick underneath a 45% red body and a 37% closing range, considering the gap as part of the range. There were nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 5, 2021 Facts: -0.39%, Volume lower, Closing range: 13%, Body: 76% Good: Lower than average volume Bad: Lower high, thick red body from afternoon decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, thick red body with similar small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.37%), DJI (+0.29%), RUT (-0.31%), VIX (-1.69%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.23%) and Materials (XLB +1.27%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.47%) and Utilities (XLU -1.69%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower This is not the rally we are looking for. The Dow Jones Industrial average closed at a record high today while the rest of the market struggled to hold any gains, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 falling further behind the other major indexes. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.39% loss for the day on lower than average volume. The 13% closing range is under a 76% body with a short lower wick created from a late afternoon dip. The short upper wick was formed just after open before the bears took over. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 6, 2021 Facts: +0.37%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 38% Good: High closing range with gain on higher volume Bad: Lower low with dip below 50d moving average Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Hammer with long lower wick and smaller body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.82%), DJI (+0.93%), RUT (+0.00%), VIX (-3.97%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.29%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.22%) and Health (XLV -0.13%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Another record was set for the Dow Jones Industrial average while value stocks continue to outpace growth stocks. Two intraday rallies might just be the action the Nasdaq needed to join the rally, but the gains were mostly isolated to the mega-caps. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.37% gain on higher volume. The mid-day rallies formed a long lower wick with a smaller 38% green body in the upper half of the candle, forming a hammer. A hammer can signal a trend reversal but needs to be confirmed the following day. The closing range of 99% comes after a rally late in the afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 7, 2021 Facts: +0.88%, Volume lower, Closing range: 60% (w/gap), Body: 21% Good: Higher close, higher high, higher low, confirmation of yesterday's hammer Bad: Lower volume, gap-up may need revisiting Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer upper wick over a thin green body in lower half of candle, gap-up at open Advance/Decline: About three gaining stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.66%), RUT (+1.35%), VIX (-9.24%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.78%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.22%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.30%) and Consumer Staples (+0.00%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher More records were set as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average both had record closes while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 joined the rally, also making gains. Employment data in the morning caused the dollar to fall which can give a boost to mega-caps and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.88% gain. Volume was lower and the morning rally faded through the day, giving the candle a 60% closing range (including the gap) and a thin 21% body under a long upper wick. Nonetheless, the positive gain with a higher high and higher low is a confirmation of the previous day's reversal hammer candle. There were three gaining stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The market is the great fortune teller, always trying to price in the future, not the present. We saw that in action this week in several ways. The first was with Janet Yellen's comments on Tuesday that interest rate hikes might be needed in the future. That sent investors into a frenzy sell-off before she walked back the comments. The second indication of future focus was that investors were much more focused on the guidance in earning reports than they were on the current results. Earning reports that beat expectations, but lowered or kept guidance the same were punished. Earnings reports that didn't meet expectations, but could provide higher guidance were rewarded. But possibly the biggest indication is the rotation from the growth stocks of the past year, to the value re-opening and infrastructure stocks of this year. While the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) were setting new records, the Nasdaq (IXIC) was still dropping, dipping below its 50d MA before finding any support. It was nearly the same for small-caps and the Russell 2000 (RUT). Thursday was the pivot day for both the Nasdaq and RUT, with long lower wicks and high closing ranges. The rally continued into Friday and provides some optimism for possible continuation into next week. But there is still a lot of rebuilding to do across both indexes. Many leading stocks will face overhead supply resistance as they move back toward new highs. While the two lagging indexes attempt to rally back to new highs, expect investors to stay hyper-focused on inflation and any responses from the Fed. Changes in monetary policy will be met with a swift reaction. The Nasdaq declined -1.51% for the week, ending the week in the middle of the range with a 52% closing range. Volume was lower than the previous week, with much of the volume focused on Tuesday's sell-off and Thursday's mid-day bounce. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) didn't have a single declining day during the week and advanced +2.67% over the five days. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.23% for the week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.23% after taking a round trip below its 21d EMA and 50d MA but closing just above where it opened for the week. The VIX volatility index declined -10.32% for the week. It was the cyclical sectors that ruled the week. Energy ( XLE ), Materials ( XLB ), Financials ( XLF ) and Industrials ( XLI ) were the top four sectors of the week. The cyclical sectors are benefiting from a pick-up in economic activity driving demand for products from building materials, infrastructure and the manufacturing of consumables. Supply has not been able to keep up with the increased demand, driving commodity prices higher. Timber, Copper , Aluminum are all skyrocketing. And demand for oil is increasing as transportation picks back up. While the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) hit new all-time records, there were four sectors that lost for the week. Technology ( XLK ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) fell on Monday thru Wednesday along with the Nasdaq, as investors rotated to re-opening and infrastructure stocks. Real Estate ( XLRE ) and Utilities ( XLU ) were the bottom two sectors. Investors did not have interest in the defensive equity plays this week. Investors remain confident in the equities market, but are playing toward value, re-opening and infrastructure. The US Treasury 30y, 10y and 2y yields all declined for the week, continuing to flatten the yield curve since its sharpest point in March. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined slightly while Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -1.17% for the week, resting just above a support area from 2018. Commodities, especially the resources required for recovery, continue to reach new historic high prices. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced +5.94% and +3.53% for the week. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +0.85%. Timber (WOOD) advanced +5.43%. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +4.40% and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +5.90%, putting in the fifth week in a row of gains. This growth/value comparison we've been tracking is showing the big rotation back into value over the past week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps were looking a little ugly on the daily charts this past two weeks. But it's always important to take a broader look at the weekly, and although not great, it doesn't look so bad either. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) all touched their 10e moving average lines, found support and closed above them. Microsoft was even able to get a slight gain for the week, advancing +0.11%. Apple (AAPL) was down -0.95%. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest loss of -5.07%, but still stayed above the key moving average line. Alphabet (GOGL) had a dip but recovered, closing just -0.07% from where it opened the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobile (XOM) had a huge gain this week, advancing +9.07%. However, my other recovery stocks are all down. Delta Airlines (DAL) lost -1.74%. Marriott (MAR) declined -1.23%. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) lost -4.29%. So the focus on re-opening stocks may be more about the infrastructure plays and manufacturing goods required to meet increasing consumer demands. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) closed the week at 0.650, a little lower from the previous week, but was up and down throughout the week. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the greed side but not far off neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 87.79, after topping 100 last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead There are still a high number of earnings reports, so keep an eye on your portfolio so you are not surprised. Monday There is not much significant economic news scheduled for Monday. JD.com (JD), Marriott (MAR), Roblox (RBLX), Trade Desk (TTD), Trex (TREX), Magnite (MGNI) and VUZIX (VUZI) are a few of the interesting earnings reports for Monday. Tuesday On Tuesday, we will get the Monthly OPEC Report and the EIA Shot-Term Energy Outlook. The JOLTS Job Openings report for March will be released just after market open. FOMC Members are scheduled to speak throughout the day. There's also a 3y note-auction which is not quite as important as the 10y, but may be viewed as a preview for the longer term auction performance. Earnings releases will include Electronic Arts (EA), Palantir (PLTR), Unity Software (U), Quantumscape (QS), Plug Power (PLUG), Upstart (UPST), Lemonade (LMND), Open Lending (LPRO), Selectquote (SLQT), Wednesday Consumer Price Index data for April will be released on Wednesday. An indicator of inflation, the numbers will be watched closely. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated in the morning after market open. The 10y treasure note auction will be in the afternoon. Toyota Motor (TM) along with a large number of Japanese company earnings reports will be released on Wednesday. Some other interesting reports will include Dynatrace (DT) and Bumble (BMBL). Thursday The weekly update on Jobless Claims comes on Thursday. Also Produce Price Index data will be released in the morning. Earnings Reports include Alibaba (BABA), Walt Disney (DIS), AirBnB (ABNB), Coinbase (COIN), DoorDash (DASH), Farfetch (FTCH), Celsius (CELH), and DermTech (DMTK). Friday Friday brings an update to Core Retail Sales for April. Export/Import Price Index data will also be released. Closer to open, the Industrial Production and Business Inventories data will be released. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment numbers for May will come after the market open. Another large round of Japanese earnings reports come on Friday. UP fintech (TIGR) is also schedule to report on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Although there is caution in the market at all-time highs for two of the major indexes, there is a switch from previous weeks where Utilities and Real Estate were leading sectors, back to less cautious sectors. And although investors are still playing the value trade against the growth trade, we saw a growth and tech to start to play in the rally on Thursday as well. It's also very possible based on data available from banks, that hedge funds have been short selling the growth play which has forced prices even lower. The data says the increasing amount of shorts are coming via ETFs, which in light of the GameStop frenzy, seems to be the safer way to play the short side for now. But if the Nasdaq and the passive indexes start to rally, the hedgefunds will need to cover shorts nonetheless, possibly unlocking a short squeeze at a broader level. As the long as the fed keeps monetary policy, the market will continue to be propped up and any short-sell plays will eventually hit their limit and the buying has to begin again. Let's see. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side We've just had several weeks of first quarter earnings reports that beat the previous year, but shared lower guidance for the coming quarters. Many of those companies were driving the market to historical gains over the past year. Now that Q2 has arrived, the year-over-year comparable earnings will get much tougher. That's going to mean more downside for companies that are driving the high prices in the market. Still, as the economic recovery picks up more steam, investors worry over inflation and interest rates will increase as well. Any small statement like we saw from Yellen this past week could send investors for the exits. And if we actually see a response from the Fed that would touch monetary policy, it will certainly mean a taper tantrum if not done carefully. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq found itself below the 21d EMA again this week, but found support at the bottom of the channel from the March 2020 lows. That channel remains intact and the index closed above the 50d MA despite the dip. On the positive side, the levels are: The 21d EMA is at 13,797.33 and is a key level for the index to rise above. The 10d MA is at 13,882.14. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. This past weeks high is 14,042.12. The all-time high is at 14,211.57 is the all-time high and the high of this week. 14,923 is the middle line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index has been in the channel, but below the midline for the past ten weeks. On the downside, there are a few key levels: A previous support area is around 13,600. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,563 for next week. The 50d MA is is at 13,529.61 and is an important line to stay above. The low of this past week is 13,439.39. Let's get a higher low for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If you are a growth investor, it was probably a pretty tough week for your portfolio. Investors were focused on the value play and there was a ton of selling pressure for growth early in the week. But as the Dow Jones Industrial average and S&P 500 close the week at all-time highs, it could be just the right time to take profits and rotate them back into growth stocks. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321