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RUSSELL 2000

$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT closesHow #indices closed last week. TVC:DJI After a BEARISH ENGULFING it then closed Friday with a doji = battle for the bulls and bears which is unresolved NASDAQ:NDX Fighting back but it is still showing Negative RSI Divergence. SP:SPX Suffering from Negative Divergence. We''ll how #SPX trades over the next few days, weeks. AMEX:RSP (Equal weight) was weaker. This means that the usual big boys pulled more weight. TVC:RUT needs big move soon, lower highs. Lots of earnings this week! Have a great trading week!
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Indices roundup from post a lil over week agoiBarely more than a week we stated that RISK in #equities was INCREASING. We also gave our thoughts on some #indices . Let's see what has happened since that post: NASDAQ:NDX has cooled off - check TVC:DJI pumped since then - check Likely topping out short term here though. TVC:VIX has been trading sideways - check Does seem like it's beginning to gain momentum. TVC:RUT & AMEX:RSP (Equal weight #SPX) are both higher - check Shows that the big boys aren't the only ones running. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT all pumping but giving back, what now?DJ:DJI is having hard time here, again. The RSI is much lower, negative divergence, steam running out? NASDAQ:NDX is higher but also losing steam, RSI lower. SP:SPX AMEX:RSP & AMEX:IWM all put higher highs but they're also giving back. All the #indices have low volume. Kind of normal for this time of year. TVC:VIX is lower....... Sell on news? Lots of GAINS over past few months. Hmmm, let's see what transpires by end of day. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT Long & Short term viewsBringing indices up again, Let's look at the SHORT TERM first. (Unfortunately can only show 1 chart, see profile for more info) DJ:DJI longer term still showing an ascending triangle, current pattern is sideways channel, there's some negative divergence. NASDAQ:NDX maintains the uptrend, HOWEVER - we're seeing SEVERE negative divergence. SP:SPX also in current sideways channel, and also showing SEVERE negative divergence. TVC:RUT completes the bunch with a sideways channel and some neg divergence. ---------------------------------------------------- Longer term #indices are interesting. Using weekly. DJ:DJI showing slight negative divergence, needs to break out FAST NASDAQ:NDX Extremely overbought, last 3 times; 2 corrections, 1 major drop. SP:SPX Nothing out of the ordinary, lil overbought, see #NDX notes. TVC:RUT Severe underperformer and it looks like it wants to catch up to the others. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Key Drivers of the Market - A Deep DiveHello everyone! Today we will talk about five different important concepts. Many things are happening in markets, so I will create similar reports to help people understand why things are how they are. This will be my first report, so it might be a bit harder to go through, especially because on Tradingview, I can't easily share economic data or random non-Tradingview charts, so I will try to make each concept as simple as possible. Positioning 1) Positioning in markets appears to be quite extreme. Looking at the CoT long/short data for hedge fund positioning, we can get a pretty good sense of whether speculators are long or short. Overall, the market remains short on stocks and bonds. Regarding bond data, it is possible that the positioning is like this for other reasons, which doesn't mean they are bullish. As contrarians, we usually want to go against most speculators, but sometimes the speculators take one position for reasons other than making a directional bet (maybe they are hedged). Another significant market to look at is the energy market, and more specifically, oil, which in my opinion, is very close to transitioning back into a bull market. I am expecting one more shakeout here, with a dip toward 55-60$. I think one more shakeout for oil to take out all the lows (hunt stop loss), and speculators will fully turn short. Speculators have been cutting their longs for a year and are almost about to turn short for the first time in many years. Inflation 2) Expected inflation in the next CPI print is around 3% YoY and 0.3% MoM, potentially influenced by recent commodity spikes. These short-lived spikes could affect June's print, as some food-related commodities had a little rally. I believe inflation could come back with a vengeance, as there are too many potential issues with producing several materials and products. These issues could be exacerbated due to deglobalization and climate change (not the climate getting hotter, but colder). Truflation shows 2.3% YoY inflation, inflation expectations are at 2.3%, and interest rates are between 3.7% and 5.25% across the yield curve. My main view is that inflation will trend lower for a little longer, and its downtrend could end with a deflationary spike, as current real rates are substantially positive. It's even possible that we will get negative CPI MoM prints in Q3-Q4, but inflationary pressures will probably resume once we are done with that. Many argue that core inflation is sticky and too high, and I believe it might stay elevated for a while, but eventually, I think it will start falling. My view on inflation mainly has to do with outright shortages and not with money printing. The current disinflationary trend seen across most countries will probably continue for a little longer as we haven't seen substantial money printing for a while, while interest rate hikes are starting to affect consumers negatively. The biggest issue I see is that commodity producers are struggling and face severe problems due to green policies, deglobalization, and climate change. Another important point is that OPEC+ is about to cut 1-2m barrels/day of production, which means oil could spike as demand remains relatively strong. One of the reasons I think the biggest inflationary threat comes from the supply side (goods/services) is that Japan has had lower inflation than the US, despite keeping rates at 0. China didn't raise rates either and has been pumping liquidity into the system, as well as cutting rates, and yet inflation there is almost 0%. It shows that inflation has come down independently, with markets slowly shorting through various imbalances, not because interest rates increased. At this stage, higher rates might actually have the opposite effect than the one intended. Why? Because of the massive debts at the government level, which are being inflated even further as governments borrow at higher rates. Housing 3) The housing market remains strong, and a deficit exists. More supply will be coming online over time, but there are no signs of weakness or that the supply won't be able to be absorbed by the market. Many people are still waiting for rates and prices to drop in order to buy a house, while those with a mortgage are not selling their houses because they don't want to get a more expensive loan. Therefore we essentially have a balance in the market, with new houses and defaults being absorbed by those with cash and those willing to get an expensive mortgage. Rents have not gone up YoY but seem to be about to trend higher again. As there is still a lot of cash in the market and the US government keeps spending, it's reasonable to expect rents to stay flat or slowly tick higher, even if interest rate hikes are starting to affect the economy. Some countries are really suffering from higher interest rates, as most people have variable-rate mortgages; however, the US is in a better situation as most had their mortgages fixed at low rates. So far, it looks like banks and central banks are taking a loss on all the mortgages issued or refinanced during 2020 and 2021, and this effect won't be reverted any time soon. GDP 4) Q1 GDP growth was revised higher at 2% (from 1.4%), showing resilience in the US economy amidst recession fears. Despite growth in the US markets, concerns over a recession remain. As the US government keeps spending at a high pace, a recession will probably be delayed; without that meaning, it will never arrive. Interest rates have been rising, and the Fed wants to hike rates once or twice again. The Fed will likely intervene to support the economy in 1-2 years. As the deficit grows and rates increase, within the next few years, the government will have absorbed all excess liquidity trapped in the RRP or banks. That means that the Fed will then be forced to start buying bonds. The Fed is currently losing over 50B annually because it has to pay high rates to those that deposit at the Fed, which is effectively direct money printing. With so much government debt, the Fed can't raise rates much higher without adding this inflationary component. Although unemployment and bankruptcies are trending higher, the market is showing resilience. As stated above, the US economy is the most resilient, while many other countries are suffering heavily. What has been very helpful is that so far, we had strong oil production despite the war in Ukraine, while the US was releasing a lot of barrels from SPR. This strengthened consumption and boosted the economy. One important data point that proves that the US hasn't been in a recession is that the Travel Numbers of people flying in the US are at ATHs. How could someone call for a recession with these numbers? It's possible that interest rate hikes and all the printing in the US, along with a strong dollar, helped the US consumer to stay in relatively good shape. How bad do bankruptcies and unemployment get, and when? I don't know. I believe that the yield curve will eventually be right, and we will get a recession, but it's hard to call for one. Although lots of data points to the US being in a recession or close to getting into one, we haven't had proper confirmation for a downturn. Maybe we have been in a mild recession, and that's why the market is rallying so much, as people feared something awful, and this hasn't played out. Stocks 5) Stocks seem to remain in a bull market. After hitting the targets that I mentioned in some of my previous ideas, they had a mini-correction. I never turned fully bearish, but I thought at once, the SPX got at 4450 and the NDX at 15200, the market might have topped. This hasn't played out, and I must admit that the market looks bullish here. I can't say anything with certainty yet, but I'd avoid shorting or being all out. There are still many signals that point to higher stock prices. Apple just had a massive breakout and looks strong. Now at a 3T valuation, which seems too much, but when someone thinks that Apple is one of those companies that are essentially powering a 500T financial system, along with its growth potential with AI, then 3T doesn't seem that much. Although stocks seem expensive relative to the current GDP, let's not forget that AI will boost global GDP massively over the next few years. That means that tech companies like Microsoft and Google will keep expanding. Also, let's not forget that unprofitable tech deflated last year and hasn't recovered yet, so a lot of garbage got washed out and isn't a drag on the market. Finally, many people are missing something important: leverage didn't fuel this rally. The market deleveraged massively in 2022 and is now free from excess leverage. If this rally was driven by leverage, it would be fragile, and a reversal could occur at any moment. Summary To sum things up and add a few final touches... The main things leading the market are: NDX is a monopoly, AI, stock buybacks, passive investing, and government spending. It's improbable that these factors will cease to exist, and things will turn ugly immediately after the best first half the Nasdaq 100 has ever had. Sentiment might be changing and leaning toward bullish, but I am not seeing anything that's seriously worth paying attention to. Sure, maybe we get another little correction, but nothing more than that. The market looks very strong. Some leading indicators even show that liquidity and financial conditions will improve from here. I believe that too many people are stuck looking at interest rates but forget how bad the government deficits are and that the only way to keep moving forward is to print more money and accelerate growth and consumption. The NDX (Nasdaq 100) has broken above its double top in Q1 2022 and could easily sweep its Q4 2021 double top next. The index is just 11% away from new ATHs, which it could achieve in 2023.
FX:NAS100Long
by BitcoinMacro
AI boost US mega caps - Nasdaq, Russell 2000 Left in the ColdTech Surge: AI Stocks in the Limelight The performance of US stocks in the AI sector has been nothing short of remarkable, with over $3 trillion added to its market cap since the final quarter of 2022. The upward trend suggests further potential growth despite a broadly stable or mildly declining US stock market outside the US Megatech sector. The enduring climb of these stocks underscores the market's conviction in AI as a lasting, transformative force rather than a transient phenomenon. The US tech landscape had undergone a significant shift from a bleak outlook six to twelve months ago when technology was deemed insignificant, as currently, AI dominates the scene. The Tech Surge vs. Small Businesses: The Gap Widens The current market showcases a divide between big tech and smaller enterprises, with capital flows favoring the former. Coupled with potential deflation, this rift could intensify the struggles of smaller businesses. The thriving AI sector doesn't necessarily imply a positive outlook for smaller companies unrelated to AI in the upcoming 6-12 months. Acknowledging AI's transformative potential across industries like robotics, 3D printing, and crypto is vital. Even though a short-term crisis and job loss are on the horizon, the looming recession could present opportunities for buying cheap assets. In this unique period, reminiscent more of the 1940s and 1990s than the 2000s or the 1970s, a broader perspective, adaptability, and a positive mindset are necessary. Price action: Is the top near? Based on the Nasdaq 100 vs. Russell 2000 ratio, it's doubtful that the top is in. As you can see on the main chart, it's possible that a short-term top could be in, as NDX just filled a gap while sweeping several highs in the 14200-14300 area. However, this isn't the 2000s; this tech is more transformative. The world is ready to adopt it, and that's why ChatGPT was the fastest-adopted technology ever. Now the top 10 us tech companies have the best workforce, hardware, data, and customer base for AI; that's why they are leading the way, and they are unlikely to go down any time soon. That's confirmed by the ratio between NDX and RUT, which seems to have formed a massive cup and handle pattern that's about to break out. Maybe the current rally slows down a bit, but it's not impossible to see it accelerate rather than decelerate. The S&P 500 seems to be at least 1% higher until it hits the next resistance, but my key target has been 4350 for a long time. Once it hits it, a more substantial correction could come, even though I think it would take the SPX to 4000 at best. As for Russell 2000 looks very weak, and I think it will sweep its double bottom and fill the critical gap lower. Sentiment remains bearish For many months, on Tradingview and Twitter, I've been talking about how bearish people are, how inflation is coming down, liquidity is trending higher, and so on... yet nobody wants to hear about it. Everyone wants to talk about the ongoing or upcoming recession, and they consider AI a fad. Even after this move higher, sentiment hasn't changed, and it's getting more bearish, with people trying to short the rally, as they are angry for missing the boat. We can see that in CoT data, we can see on Twitter polls, and I can see it based on what people say on social media. Potential strategies In my opinion, it is either best to ride the trend with a small position and a wide-stop loss or wait for the market to hit key resistance, and either potentially short there if sentiment flips bullish or wait for the pullback and then go long. Although the long Nasdaq short Russell trade could have some juice left in the short term (very bullish long term), I wouldn't rush to put that trade on, as the Russell could play catch up (in the short term), as we see traders/investors diversify as they take profits from their tech stocks. These stocks are cheap and seem more 'hated' than those US mega caps. Higher interest rates and shrinking liquidity significantly affect small caps, and their situation could deteriorate. It's clear we are either in a recession or about to enter one, and these stocks have the most to lose. Therefore, once these stocks rally, especially if they outperform NDX, consider entering a long Nasdaq - short Russell trade. This trade might not work only if many large countries start banning those companies and their products or if the US starts attacking them for being too large. Until then, the ratio has higher to go.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by BitcoinMacro
Russell 2000 showing strong upside after W breakout to 1,973W Formation formed on Russell 2000. I missed the boat on this one. There are just so many markets so little time to focus on. It had the perfect buy setup with all the criteria. Anyways, those that got in, there is more upside to come. 7>21 Price>200 RSI>50 Target 1,973 ABOUT THE RUSSELL 2000 The Russell 2000 is a stock market index that measures the performance of approximately 2,000 small-cap stocks in the United States. It was created by the Frank Russell Company in 1984 and is maintained by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of the London Stock Exchange Group. The Russell 2000 is widely considered a benchmark for small-cap stocks and is used by investors to gauge the overall health and performance of the broader small-cap segment of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 2000 has a diverse range of constituents, covering various sectors such as technology, healthcare, finance, consumer goods, and industrials. The Russell 2000 is often used as a benchmark for mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on small-cap stocks. CRITERIA TO GET INTO RUSSELL 2000 To be eligible for inclusion in the Russell 2000 index, stocks need to meet certain criteria set by FTSE Russell. Market Capitalization: The primary requirement is that a company must have a market capitalization within the defined range for small-cap stocks. I'm not sure what this is set to at the moment. But I imagine it's smaller than the large cap stocks :P Somewhere around within the range of a few hundred million dollars to a couple of billion dollars. This is out of my knowledge point as I'm a South African :) FTSE Russell determines the specific range annually during the reconstitution process. U.S. Listing: Stocks considered for inclusion in the Russell 2000 must be listed on a U.S. exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ. Share Price: Stocks need to meet a minimum share price requirement to be eligible for the Russell 2000. The specific threshold is determined by FTSE Russell. Also not sure but I believe it's typically in the range of a few dollars to tens of dollars (can we say that?). If you know more information please let me know as I'm a South African and not really sure about criteria with US stock exchanges and markets. Sorry. Regardless, it looks like it's going to continue up!
TVC:RUTLong
by Timonrosso
Head and Shoulders Topping Formation on the Russell2000The recent failure of First Republic Bank highlights the problems facing the US banking system. These problems include the continued increase of delinquency rates on Credit cards, Commercial Real Estate & Automobiles, as well as a decrease of commercial bank deposits and M2 money supply (-4.2% YoY). These problems, among others, are causing banking institutions to rein in their lending to build reserves and take on debt from the FED & FHLBs to meet deposit withdrawals. This reduces the profitability of banks and restricts credit into the economy, which reduces economic activity as a whole. The economy had already begun slowing heavily before the credit crunch began in March 2023, but the current business cycle downturn, combined with 3 large regional bank failures and rising continuing jobless claims, portend a severe & lengthy economic contraction. The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators registered a -7.2% YoY Contraction recently. Since 1968, Any Conference Board LEI contraction of more than -2% YoY has never yielded a false positive in regards to a coming recession. Over 40% of Russell2000 companies are unprofitable and over 24% of S&P500 companies are zombie companies. Markets are still very overvalued within the context of a 5% Fed funds rate, contracting earnings, a credit crunch, and ongoing quantitative tightening by the FED. The markets have been seeing less buying volumes as well as carving out a head and shoulders top on the Russell2000. Other problems facing the banks include the popping auto & commercial real estate debt bubbles, as well as increasing large corporate bankruptcies (The most since 2010 thus far this year). The IPO market is the weakest it has been since 2009 (by total proceeds), which is also hurting Investment banking profits. I see the potential for 5%-10% possible upside and 35%-50% downside for the Russell2000 & S&P500 over the next 9 -18 months. Thank you for reading, Alexander C. Lambert
AMEX:IWMShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
RTY UpdateJust drifting sideways, indicators are neutral. I think MFI goes oversold tomorrow morning on RTY and ES, will wait until then to BTFD, lol. I think it's gonna be a whipsaw day. Futures need to sell off but lots of dip buyers already. Slept in (kinda obvious now, lol) because I was all cash, no positions. Will take a potshot at the market again tomorrow if indicators go oversold. No idea which way the market gaps tomorrow, I'm not bullish on TSLA earnings. FDAX MFI is dropping but the index isn't. Maybe another small gap down again? i dunno. Really thinking it might be a good time to take a break from the market... but PCAR earnings next Tuesday. Maybe after that.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
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