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Daily Market Update for 2/16Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (73d), 2/9 (5d) and today 2/16 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 16, 2021 Facts: -0.34%, Volume higher, Closing range: 29%, Body: 58% Good: Higher high, lower low, new ATH Bad: Could not hold the morning high Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body with slightly longer lower wick than upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.84, slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.06%), DJI (+.20%), RUT (-0.72%), VIX (+7.4%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Financials (XLF +1.71%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.07%) and Utilities (XLU -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The week opened with all-time highs, but the market could not hold on to those highs. After the first hour of trading, the indexes dropped going into mid-day and then spent the afternoon trading in back and forth choppiness. Despite declines, the major indexes put in higher highs and higher lows for the day. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.34% decline on slightly higher volume. The closing range of 29% is not great, but is above a low which is higher than Friday's low. The 58% body was formed from the opening gap up and quick sell-off in the morning. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the worst performing of the indexes with a -0.72% decline. It's also the only index that did not make a new all-time high today. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.06% while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.20%. The VIX volatility index rose +7.46%. Energy (XLE +2.51%) and Financials (XLF +1.03%) were the top sectors again. Likewise, Real Estate (XLRE -1.07%) and Utilities (XLU -1.12%) were again the bottom sectors. Both are positive signals for the market. Energy and Financials sector gains are being led by optimism for the economic recovery. Energy is expected to benefit from high demand of recovering transportation sectors. Financials is seen to benefit from higher yields on bonds. Real Estate and Utilities tend to be defensive plays for money managers who need to stay invested in equities. So seeing them at the bottom of the list is another signal of confidence. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) remained steady with a +0.03% gain. The US 30y, 10y and 2y yields all climbed for the day. The spread between long term and short term bonds continues to widen. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined for the day but remained high compared to Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices which declined more. The spread between corporate bonds and treasury bonds widened as investors seek out the riskier asset classes for better returns. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly after an accelerated rise since the beginning of February. Timber (WOOD) continued to advance. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined slightly. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.535. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved more to the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four biggest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced for the day, gaining +0.75%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.53% and -0.27%. Apple (AAPL) had the worst decline, losing -1.61%. Both Amazon and Apple are trading below the 21d exponential moving average. Salesforce.com (CRM), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Bank of America (BAC) and Nvidia (NVDA) were the top four mega-cap stocks. JP Morgan (JPM) and PayPal (PYPL) also added to the financial mega-cap stocks with gains over 2%. Facebook (FB) gained +1.28% driving the Communications sector (XLC) to positive gains, along with Google's advance. Growth stocks had a mixed day. Chinese financial stocks FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) advanced with huge +29.43% and +22.52% gains. On the other hand, Chinese aerial vehicle company Ehang Holdings (EH) lost -62.69% on a damaging report questioning the validity of the business. Pinterest (PINS +6.08%) and Twitter (TWTR +2.87%) added to the gains of the larger communications sector stocks. Palantir (PLTR -12.75) sold off after a disappointing earnings release. Solar Edge (SEDG) is up 4% after hours on positive earnings news. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Some key economic data will be release before market open tomorrow. Producer Price Index data will give a leading indication on inflation. Consumer Price Index data released last week was lower than expected. An increase in Produce Price Index data would be positive as it will eventually impact consumer prices. Also before market open, Retail Sales data for January will be released. Finally, Industrial Production data for January will be released just before the market opens. Shopify (SHOP) will release earnings before market open tomorrow. Baidu (BIDU), Twilio (TWLO), Synopsis (SNPS), Fastly (FSLY), SunPower (SPWR), Tilray (TLRY) are some popular growth stocks reporting earnings after market close. Also reporting tomorrow will be Hilton (HLT) and Hyatt (H) which will provide insight to the hotel industry recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +0.28% for Wednesday. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a sideways -0.05% decline. The one-day trend points to a -0.91% decline that would meet up with the 14,000 support level. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line also offers an area of support and is -2.8% below Tuesday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It may not be the start to the week that we all wanted, but there are positive signals in the underlying data that could turn into upside later in the week. The optimism for a stimulus bill that will boost the economic recovery is clear in the moves away from defensive plays and safe haven asset classes. Optimism is also growing as vaccines continue to roll out with new providers of tests, vaccines and other treatments for the pandemic being released weekly. Eventually that could get consumers back out and spending, unleashing record amounts of household savings over the past year. At the same time, the action today was another example of investors being bullish while keeping one foot out the door. A bad news cycle could send investors to the exit. It's important to keep those stop loss in place and manage positions to your level of risk acceptance. Stay healthy and trade well!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
5
Market Week In Review - 2/8/2021 - 2/12/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, February 8, 2021 Facts: +0.95%, Volume higher, Closing range: 100%, Body: 54% Good: New all-time high, no upper wick, bullish into close Bad: Small gap to fill Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Upper half of candle is body, lower wick from morning dip but did not fill gap Advance/Decline: 3.36, more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.76%), RUT (+2.53%), VIX (+1.77%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +4.18%) and Financials (XLF +1.29%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) was the only losing sector. Expectation: Higher There was a lot to be excited about in the market today. The Nasdaq gapped up at open, as investors had high optimism for a stimulus bill to pass through congress. Democrats added new details of more than $50b to go toward transportation industries. That not only sent airline stocks soaring, but also pumped up the Energy sector. When the Energy sector leads, in most cases, the whole market follows. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.95% gain on a big spike in volume. There was a morning dip that nearly closed a gap-up at open, but bulls took over early and led the afternoon to a new all-time high and 100% closing range. The 54% green body in the upper half of the candle was the result of a rally into close. More than three stocks advanced for every stock that declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 9, 2021 Facts: +0.14%, Volume higher, Closing range: 52%, Body: 52% Good: New all-time high, higher low, close above 14,000 Bad: Upper wick, tested high three times but closed in middle of range Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Lower half of candle is body, upper wick formed after testing high 3 times Advance/Decline: 1.45, about three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.11%), DJI (-0.03%), RUT (+0.40%), VIX (+1.84%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +4.18%) and Financials (XLF +1.29%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) was the only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The market continues to move higher, albeit at a slower pace than the previous week. Today brought another new all-time high for the Nasdaq and a higher low. However better than expected Job Openings data wasn't enough for the index to stay at the top of the range, testing the high three times before closing in about the middle of the intraday trading range. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.14% gain on higher volume than the previous day. The closing range of 52% is above a 52% body that covers the lower half of the candle with no lower wick. A higher high and a higher low is a sign of strength and closing above 14,000 was a key level to look for this week. About three stocks advanced for every two stocks that declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 10, 2021 Facts: -0.25%, Volume higher, Closing range: 48%, Body: 46% Good: New all-time high, close above yesterday's low Bad: Morning dip below previous low, again fading into close Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bearish outside day with hanging man candlestick Advance/Decline: 0.88, slight more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.03%), DJI (+0.20%), RUT (-0.72%), VIX (+1.66%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +0.95%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.99%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Sideways Wednesday was a wild session for the markets with a big dip in the morning as investors reacted to Core Consumer Price Index data that showed inflation was lower than expected. Inflation is something economists want to see at just the right level, not too much and not too little. The market recovered as morning turned into the afternoon, but then dipped again into close after statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.25% loss on higher volume. The closing range of 48% is good considering the morning dip and that the close is higher than yesterday's open. However, the candle has a hanging man pattern that shows sellers are ready to take over as soon as any bad news hits the market. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 11, 2021 Facts: +0.38%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 14% Good: Finished higher, after selling pressure in morning Bad: Long lower shadow for second day showing more selling pressure Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with long lower shadow, small negative body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: 0.54, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.17%), DJI (-0.02%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-3.37%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.10%) and Health (XLV +0.19%) were top. Energy (XLE -1.54%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Sideways The Nasdaq moved sideways today as the fight between buyers and sellers created a second day of choppiness. The morning sell-off was possibly prompted by disappointing employment data and a continued outlook from the Fed of an economy that needs support. The index closed with a +0.38% gain on slightly higher volume than the previous day. The inside day, marked by a lower high and a higher low, saw a big dip in the morning and another dip in the afternoon before bulls took prices higher into close and ended the day with a slight gain. The action resulted in a closing range of 77% and a small 14% red body in the upper half of the candle. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 12, 2021 Facts: +0.50%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96%, Body: 71% Good: Good gains in the morning, higher prices into close Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with tiny upper wick as index closed near the high Advance/Decline: 0.89, slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.47%), DJI (+0.09%), RUT (+0.18%), VIX (-6.02%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.48%) and Materials (XLB +1.03%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.03%) and Utilities (XLU -0.73%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher The market rallied into the end of the week, closing at or near all-time highs across the major indexes. Despite lower than expected consumer sentiment data, investors were optimistic about the stimulus talks and progress with vaccines to end the pandemic. As a sign of that confidence, the defensive play of Utilities remained at the bottom of the sector list heading into a three-day weekend. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.50% gain, just below the all-time high. The volume was lower than the previous day, but the 96% closing range and 71% green body appear very bullish. Most of the gains came in the last 30 minutes of trading. However, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The second week of February began and ended with a rally to all-time highs. Overall, it was a bullish week, but the bears were always present. Monday opened with a gap up that was quickly tested with a dip in the morning, before climbing to close the day with a nearly a 1% gain. Tuesday set a new all-time high but could not hold onto the high and closed in the middle of the day's price range. Wednesday and Thursday is when the bears made the biggest attempt with big morning and afternoon dips that kept the index in a sideways move. The close from Tuesday to Thursday only changed by 0.13%, but the trading range was nearly 2%. That left Friday as the deciding day on whether the week would be bullish or bearish. The bulls won. Energy stocks showed up big this week, building on news of a large stimulus targeted at transportation. Add that crude oil prices continued higher throughout the week. On the other hand, Consumer stocks did poorly after consumer price index data showed inflation lower than expected. Consumer confidence and spending data released later in the week confirmed there was less demand for consumer products. None of that data was enough to scare investors from the market. Yields on long-term treasury bonds moved higher as investors remained in equity markets. Even within the stock market, the typical defensive plays used by investors did not show up. Utilities remained as the worst performing sector even as Friday closed into a three-day weekend. The Nasdaq closed the week up +1.73% from the previous weeks close. Volume was higher than the previous week, driven by the two day fight of bulls and bears on Wednesday and Thursday. The closing range of 95% was thanks to a rally in the last 30 minutes of trading on Friday, that brought the index near to the all-time high set earlier in the week. The average closing range for the past 15 weeks is at 72%. This past week broke a pattern of ups and downs over the previous six weeks with two high weekly closes in a row. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other indexes with a +2.51% weekly gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.23% while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +1.00%. The VIX volatility index closed at its lowest point since before the February 2020 highs turned into the 2020 market crash. Energy ( XLE ) led for a second week in a row as crude oil prices continue to rise and optimism for economic recovery to bring demand back to oil and gas as transportation, travel and leisure sectors bounce back. In particular, transportation companies got a boost on Monday from news of a targeted stimulus to help the sector. In turn, that projects well for Energy. Technology ( XLK ) and Health ( XLV ) led for Thursday as Energy pulled back for a day. However, Energy bounced back up to the week's highs on Friday. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) both lost for the week. Core CPI numbers showed lower than expected inflation and weighed down on the two sectors. Utilities ( XLU ) was the bottom sector for the week. There was not much interest in this defensive play for equities this week. US 30y and 10y Treasury Bond yields continued to rise and widen the gap with shorter term treasury bonds. The yield curve steepens to levels not seen since 2015. This a signal of confidence from investors in the ability for the economy to recover earlier than expected with many analysts projected a full recovery in the second half of this year. That confidence can also been seen in corporate bonds. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices are climbing. Those higher risk bonds are being bough while safer Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) are being sold. Investors are confident in corporations being able to meet commitments on these bonds. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.62% for the week. Silver (SILVER) and GOLD (GOLD) both finished the week with gains. The real story with commodities is the two week rise of Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!), Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!), and Aluminum (ALI1!). These are all key commodities required to support economic activity. Seeing the two week rise is a bullish sign for the recovering economy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps I had a great conversation in the comments of the daily market update this week about the markets and the big four mega-caps. It reminded me how important it is to look at the weekly charts to see trends. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) have been somewhat disappointing as you watch the daily charts. You might think there is something wrong. However, taking a step back and looking at the weekly shows them still in uptrends, with higher lows closing in one the highs. As the price range narrows with lowering volume, you can expect a breakout in one direction or the other. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) already had their breakouts and continue to trade well above the key moving average lines. The performance of the big mega-caps has an impact on the indexes. The indexes influence investor sentiment and impact passive instruments including ETFs. Those all impact overall market prices. That's the reason to keep an eye on daily and weekly charts of these top four mega-caps. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.584, still at the level of overly bullish optimism. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved more toward Greed level, but is not at an extreme level. Money managers moved back to a 110 leveraged level as measured by the NAAIM Exposure Index. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bumble IPO Bumble entered the market with an IPO on Thursday and ended the week with a 75% gain over the initial price of $43. Happy Valentine's Day to all the Bumble users and especially the Bumble investors this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Markets will be closed on Monday for the President's Day holiday. Tuesday will be lite on economic news with an update on Manufacturing data in the morning, FOMC Member Daly comments in the afternoon. Wednesday will have more important news with core producer price index data being released in the morning. The producer price index data can also be an early indicator of inflation so this data will be interesting to watch after last week's consumer price index data disappointed economists. Retail sales data, Industrial Production and weekly Crude Oil stock numbers will also be released on Wednesday. Thursday will bring Building Permits and Housing Starts data for January. The weekly update on Initial Jobless Claims will also come before market opens. Import/Export price data released on Thursday can impact the US dollar. There will be another update on Crude Oil Inventories later in the morning. Friday will finish the week with more Home Sales data and the Manufacturing and Service PMI data. The week will include a number of earnings reports, albeit at a slower pace from previous weeks. CVS Health (CVS), Occidental (OXY) and Avis (CAR) will be interesting to watch on Tuesday. Baidu (BIDU) and Synopsys (SNPS) report on Wednesday. Walmart (WMT) will be an important one to watch on Thursday. Be sure to check for scheduled earnings reports for stocks in your own portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Looking just at the equity markets, it's hard to argue with the statement made late on Friday. After a few days of back and forth, the market moved decidedly bullish headed into a three day weekend. Not only did investors not make defensive plays, they bought up assets at a discount relative to where they think prices will go next week. The impeachment trial is behind us. Congress is now free to focus in on legislating about bills that can help the economy, including the $1.9tn stimulus bill. Core CPI and consumer confidence and spending numbers released last week may look bleak. But the bright side of those numbers is that Americans are saving money at record levels. Americans don't save money. Eventually as confidence grows, that money is sure to be released into the economy, driving consumer prices higher and driving stock prices higher as well. The Fed made another affirmation this past week of keeping monetary policy in place for the foreseeable future. A short-term pullback or even small correction is sure to be limited by the asset purchases and low interest rates that will keep money in equity markets. The breakouts from Microsoft and Alphabet a few weeks ago are still in-tact. It seems any moment new breakout runs could come from Apple and Amazon. These four big mega-caps can carry the market to new highs and that momentum can spread across to a breadth of sectors and stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Investor optimism continues to remain at extreme highs. The put/call ratio is far in the overly bullish range. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving higher. Money managers only moved out of leverage for one week and now the NAAIM index shows they are back in leverage again this week. All that optimism could be an overwhelming amount of froth that's just waiting for an excuse to see investors run for the exit. Parts of the stimulus, including the amount of checks and the number of citizens who will benefit from them, continues to be debated. Some of the optimism in the market depends on these checks getting out to as much of the population as possible and driving an increase in economic activity. If this part of the stimulus disappoints investors, it could be a reason to take profits from equities and move money to other asset classes. The media loves to uncover stories that show faults in the vaccine roll out. Whether its supply chain limitations or the effectiveness of the vaccine, any bad news has a negative impact on sentiment. As I noted several times in the daily updates, there is a lot of signal to say that investors are bullish, but have one foot out the door and ready to move out at the sign of any bad news. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: Wednesday's high of 14,109.12 will be the first test. Another weekly high would be a great sign for a continued rally. Reaching 14,250 would keep moving the weekly highs along an upper channel line from the past few weeks. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: 14,000 is now an area of support that held this past week. Staying above this line will make that support stronger. The low of the week this past week is 13,845.47. The 21d EMA is at 13,609.55. That is around 3.5% below Friday's close. The 50d MA is at 13,083.19. A violation of this line will be an added warning side. It has not been tested since 11/4. There is support at the 13,000 area, seen in the lows from the first weeks of January. Several possible areas of support at 12,550, 12,250, and 12,000. The 200d MA moved above the lows of October and is now about 20% below the index at 11,303.89. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This week was an impressive fight between the bulls and the bears. Both sides of the market showed itself throughout the week. But in the end, the bulls won the fight. There's a lot of reason to believe the bull market will continue into next week. As investors come back from a three-day weekend, it's becoming increasingly likely that stimulus will pass in congress. Then it's on to a massive infrastructure bill that Biden wants to see congress pass. At the same time, it's important to realize the market is extended as it continues its rally. Many growth stocks that have been driving the indexes upwards are extended way beyond normal levels. Any news that would spook investors, could bring a pullback or small correction. Or an even bigger correction. It's always important to manage risk in your portfolio. Keep stop losses up to date and make sure you are comfortable with draw down that could occur. I write these reminders as much for me as I do for any readers of these updates. :) Happy Valentines Day! Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
57
Daily Market Update for 2/12Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (72d), 2/8 (5d) and today 2/12 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 12, 2021 Facts: +0.50%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96%, Body: 71% Good: Good gains in the morning, higher prices into close Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with tiny upper wick as index closed near the high Advance/Decline: 0.89, slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.47%), DJI (+0.09%), RUT (+0.18%), VIX (-6.02%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.48%) and Materials (XLB +1.03%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.03%) and Utilities (XLU -0.73%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market rallied into the end of the week, closing at or near all-time highs across the major indexes. Despite lower than expected consumer sentiment data, investors were optimistic about the stimulus talks and progress with vaccines to end the pandemic. As a sign of that confidence, the defensive play of Utilities remained at the bottom of the sector list heading into a three-day weekend. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.50% gain, just below the all-time high. The volume was lower than the previous day, but the 96% closing range and 71% green body appear very bullish. Most of the gains came in the last 30 minutes of trading. However, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 (SPX) set a new all-time high with a +0.47% advance for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.18% while the Dow Jones Industrial lagged the other indexes with a +0.09% gain. The VIX volatility index dropped -6.02% to have its lowest close since February 21, 2020. Energy (XLE +1.48%) was the leading sector of the day with Materials (XLB +1.03%) and Financials (XLF +1.03%) putting in identical gains. Financials led in the morning before being overtaken by Energy mid-day. The surprise heading into a three-day weekend is that Real Estate (XLRE -0.03%) and Utilities (XLU -0.73%) were at the bottom of the list. These sectors are often used for defensive plays, especially before three-day weekends this past year. Having them at the bottom of the list shows how confident investors are right now. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) remained steady this past week and today with a +0.07% gain. The US 30y and 10y yields climbed for a second day. US 2y treasury bond yields were slightly lower. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices also advanced while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced again after yesterday's small pullback. Timber (WOOD) continued to advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. Bullish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.585. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved significantly to the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps, Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all gained for the day. Amazon closed back above the 21d EMA after closing below it yesterday. PayPal (PYPL) and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) led the mega-caps with +4.68% and +2.79% gains. Nvidia (NVDA) gave up some of yesterday's big gain with a -1.90% loss today. Growth stocks were again dominated by Chinese companies with Ehang (EH) gaining +14.42% and UP Fintech (TIGR) gaining +7.61%. Chewy (CHWY) also had a great gain of +8.95%, while Fiverr (FVRR), Peloton (PTON), and Penn National Gaming (PENN) all closing with greater than 5% advances. DataDog (DDOG) and CloudFlare (NET) closed with losses after disappointing investors with 2021 guidance in earnings the previous day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Monday for President's day. Tuesday does not have a lot of economic news on the calendar. FOMC Member Daly speaks in the afternoon. CVS Health (CVS), Palantir (PLTR), Ringcentral (RNG), SolarEdge (SEDG), Avis (CAR) are a few of the interesting earnings reports for Tuesday. Check your portfolio for earnings events to make sure you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +0.16% for Tuesday. That would put it just above the all-time high set earlier this week. The one-day trend is pointing to a -0.29% decline. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a larger decline of -0.71%. If there is further downside, the index started to build support at the 14,000 area this week. The 21d EMA line also offers an area of support and is -3.5% below Wednesday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a nice way to end the week. I was expecting some defensive plays in late afternoon, but investors remained confident in the economic recovery and stayed invested in the stock market, heading into the three-day weekend. Defensive plays of Utilities and Real Estate were left on the sidelines and there was no exodus from equities to treasury bonds or other safe havens. Look for my Week in Review update later this weekend for more analysis of this week and how that might play into next week's market. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/11Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (71d), 2/5 (5d) and today 2/11 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 11, 2021 Facts: +0.38%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 14% Good: Finished higher, after selling pressure in morning Bad: Long lower shadow for second day showing more selling pressure Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with long lower shadow, small negative body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: 0.54, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.17%), DJI (-0.02%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-3.37%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.10%) and Health (XLV +0.19%) were top. Energy (XLE -1.54%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq moved sideways with an inside day as the fight between buyers and sellers created a second day of choppiness. The morning sell-off was possibly prompted by disappointing employment data and a continued outlook from the Fed of an economy that needs support. The index closed with a +0.38% gain on slightly higher volume than the previous day. The inside day, marked by a lower high and a higher low, saw a big dip in the morning and another dip in the afternoon before bulls took prices higher into close and ended the day with a slight gain. The action resulted in a closing range of 77% and a small 14% red body in the upper half of the candle. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The buyer-seller indecision was best represented by the doji-style candle on the Russell 2000 (RUT) where the open and close were nearly the same. The RUT ended the day with a +0.13%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.17%, while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) declined a slight -0.02%. The VIX volatility index dropped -3.37% despite the intraday volatility. Technology (XLK +1.10%) and Health (XLV +0.19%) were the only sectors to outperform the broader S&P 500 index. Energy (XLE -1.54%) was the bottom sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) has been even the past two days with -0.01% declines each day. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bond yields were all higher as investors sold the bonds. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices also advanced while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures finally pulled back after several days of advancing. Timber (WOOD) continued to advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) dropped while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.500. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is about at the mid-point between fear and greed. The NAAIM exposure index is back up to 110 as money managers are well into leverage in their portfolios. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both advanced for the day while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) declined. Amazon closed below its 21d EMA, a key line of support and resistance. ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) led the mega-caps with the biggest gains. Toyota Motor (TM) gave back some of the gains from yesterday with a -1.62% gain. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the worst performing mega-cap for the day, leading the Energy sector lower. Fiverr (FVRR), Zynga (ZNGZ), Pinterest (PINS), Magnite (MGNI) were up more than 7% each, leading the popular growth stocks. GrowGeneration (GRWG) joined the sell-off of most marijuana related stocks with a -12.90% decline. After hours DataDog (DDOG) and Cloudflare (NET) were down -2.76% and -7.39% after hours despite beating analyst estimates in earnings and revenue. Although beating on results, the outlook for 2021 was disappointing for investors. Walt Disney (DIS) was up after hours, surprising investors with stronger than expected subscription growth. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Expectations, Sentiment and Inflation data will be release tomorrow morning. NTT Docomo (DMCYY) and MercadoLibre (MELI) are among several companies to release earnings before the opening bell tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +0.48% gain for Friday. That would be just below the all-time high set earlier this week. The one-day trend is pointing to a -0.66% decline. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a smaller decline of -0.40%. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.26% below Wednesday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Yesterday's action set expectations for a sideways move today and the expectation is still at a sideways move for tomorrow. The expectation could be broken to the upside or the downside and would indicate direction heading into next week. After Thursday's close, the weekly chart for the Nasdaq shows as bullish. A sideways or positive move for tomorrow would both be equally as good to close the week. However, with the three day weekend it wouldn't be a huge surprise if there is a small pullback on Friday. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Daily Market Update for 2/10Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (70d), 2/4 (5d) and today 2/10 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 10, 2021 Facts: -0.25%, Volume higher, Closing range: 48%, Body: 46% Good: New all-time high, close above yesterday's low Bad: Morning dip below previous low, again fading into close Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bearish outside day with hanging man candlestick Advance/Decline: 0.88, slight more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.03%), DJI (+0.20%), RUT (-0.72%), VIX (+1.66%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +0.95%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.99%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Wednesday was a wild session for the markets with a big dip in the morning as investors reacted to Core Consumer Price Index data that showed inflation was lower than expected. Inflation is something economists want to see at just the right level, not too much and not too little. The market recovered as morning turned into the afternoon, but then dipped again into close after statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.25% loss on higher volume. The closing range of 48% is good considering the morning dip and that the close is higher than yesterday's open. However, the candle has a hanging man pattern that shows sellers are ready to take over as soon as any bad news hits the market. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) was the only index to close with a gain, advancing +0.20%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.03%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gave up the most with a -0.72% loss. The volatility index (VIX) rose +1.66%. Energy (XLE +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +0.95%) were the top performing sectors. Having Energy lead brought some strength to the market and likely helped the index close well above the morning lows. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.99%) was the bottom sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) was even for the day with a slight 0.01% decline. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bond yields all declined with the 2y declining the most. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices also declined for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb on positive inventory data signaling higher demand. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.549. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is about at the mid-point between fear and greed. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) was the only mega-cap of the biggest four to advance for the day. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) all declined. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) both dipped below their 21d EMA, but all four of these mega-caps closed above the key moving average. Toyota Motor (TM +4.91%) and Nvidia (NVDA +3.51%) were the top mega-cap gainers of the day. Tesla (TSLA +5.26%) was the worst performer of the mega-caps. Twitter (TWTR +13.20%) led growth stocks and boosted the Communications sector. FUTU holdings (FUTU) ended the day with a +7.01% gain after soaring +30% intraday. Doordash (DASH) ended the day with a +14.60% advanced. After hours Pinterest (PINS) was up 9.73% upon beating earnings expectations. SNAP (SNAP) did not fare as well and was down -7.44%. Peloton (PTON) was down -8.14% despite beating expectations. They warned off continued delays in delivery due to a growing backlog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will start with the Initial Jobless Claims report before market open. Later in the day the Fed Monetary policy and the US Federal Budget reports will be released to congress. Walt Disney (DIS), PepsiCo (PEP), AstraZeneca (AZN), DexCom (DXCM), Datadog (DDOG) are among a long list of earnings releases tomorrow. Check the stocks in your portfolio to make sure you aren't surprised by earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +3.11% gain for Thursday. The index will need to break through the 14,000 round-number resistance again. The one-day trend is pointing to a sideways +0.08% move. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a -0.26% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.10% below Wednesday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a bit of a rough day if your eyes were on the market the whole time. On the positive side, the index closed well off the morning lows. However, the day's action demonstrated that sellers are ready to respond to any hint of negative news. There were still plenty of big gainers for the day, but also some big losers that impacted overall sentiment. Keep an eye on your winners and trim your losers if the market is making you nervous. Otherwise, there aren't any strong signals to be overly bearish right now. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
5
Daily Market Update for 2/9Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (69d), 2/3 (5d) and today 2/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 9, 2021 Facts: +0.14%, Volume higher, Closing range: 52%, Body: 52% Good: New all-time high, higher low, close above 14,000 Bad: Upper wick, tested high three times but closed in middle of range Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Lower half of candle is body, upper wick formed after testing high 3 times Advance/Decline: 1.45, about three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.11%), DJI (-0.03%), RUT (+0.40%), VIX (+1.84%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +4.18%) and Financials (XLF +1.29%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) was the only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market continues to move higher, albeit at a slower pace than the previous week. Today brought another new all-time high for the Nasdaq and a higher low. However better than expected Job Openings data wasn't enough for the index to stay at the top of the range, testing the high three times before closing in about the middle of the intraday trading range. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.14% gain on higher volume than the previous day. The closing range of 52% is above a 52% body that covers the lower half of the candle with no lower wick. A higher high and a higher low is a sign of strength and closing above 14,000 was a key level to look for this week. About three stocks advanced for every two stocks that declined. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the best performing index of the day with a +0.40% gain. Go, go small caps! The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) could not hold on to early session gains and were down -0.11% and -0.03% at close. The VIX gained +1.84%. Real Estate (XLRE +0.45%) and Communications (XLC +0.33%) were the top performing sectors of the day. Energy (XLE -1.06%) and Materials (XLB -0.74%) were the bottom. With the big gain for Energy on Monday, it's reasonable to expect a pullback, and Energy continues to lead the sectors by a wide margin for the current week as well as month-to-date. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.54% for the day. The US 30y treasury bond yields remained about flat while while 10y treasury bond yields declined. The US 2y yields rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices pull backed after an upward run that started on Feb 1. Silver (SILVER) remained flat while Gold (GOLD) advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb higher. Timber (WOOD) declined slightly. Copper (COPPER1!), and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.494, an overly bullish level. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the biggest four mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) advanced for the day with a +0.54% gain. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.66%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.54%. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.44%. All are still trading above the key moving average lines. All have shrinking volume on price consolidation and could be ready to make another breakout to the positive. Roche (RHHBY) gained +2.41% after they requested emergency approval for a COVID test. Netflix (NFLX +2.03%) and Comcast (CMCSA +1.68%) helped lead Communication stocks higher. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) made another big advanced with a +20.63% gain. NIO (NIO) wants to breakout with a +6.38% gain today. Enphase (ENPH) was up 6% after hours upon beating estimates in their earnings release. Twitter (TWTR) also beat expectations but after hours gains were muted when they warned expenses will increase 25% this year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Core consumer price index data will be released before market open tomorrow. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated after markets open at 10:30. The US Federal Budget release and comments from Fed Chair Powell will happen in early afternoon. Toyota Motor (TM), Coca-Cola (KO), Uber (UBER), MercadoLibre (MELI), General Motors (GM) are just a few of the big earnings releases tomorrow. Zillow (Z), Qualys (QLYS) . There are a large amount of earnings releases this week, so check your portfolio for earnings events so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line is pointing to a +1.07% gain and another all-time high. The one-day trend line is showing a sideways move of +0.10% which would likely be a result of resistance at yesterday's high. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a small -1.02% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.8% below Friday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It wasn't an overly bullish day for the market, but it certainly wasn't a bad day. After a week of big gains, having a small gain for one day allows moving averages to catch up. There was still plenty of breadth in the market with more gainers than losers. A sideways move tomorrow or even a small pullback would not be terrible for tomorrow. Then again, the market may just decide to continue higher on stimulus and economic data. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/8Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (68d), 2/2 (5d) and today 2/8 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, February 8, 2021 Facts: +0.95%, Volume higher, Closing range: 100%, Body: 54% Good: New all-time high, no upper wick, bullish into close Bad: Small gap to fill Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Upper half of candle is body, lower wick from morning dip but did not fill gap Advance/Decline: 3.36, more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.76%), RUT (+2.53%), VIX (+1.77%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +4.18%) and Financials (XLF +1.29%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) was the only losing sector. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview There was a lot to be excited about in the market today. The Nasdaq gapped up at open, as investors had high optimism for a stimulus bill to pass through congress. Democrats added new details of more than $50b to go toward transportation industries. That not only sent airline stocks soaring, but also pumped up the Energy sector. When the Energy sector leads, in most cases, the whole market follows. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.95% gain on a big spike in volume. There was a morning dip that nearly closed a gap-up at open, but bulls took over early and led the afternoon to a new all-time high and 100% closing range. The 54% green body in the upper half of the candle was the result of a rally into close. More than three stocks advanced for every stock that declined. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.74%, while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) advanced +0.76%. The small-caps were the big winners gain with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +2.53% for the day. The Russell 2000 produced its third Marubozu White candle in a row. Those candles have no wicks, the open is the low and the close is the high. The VIX volatility index rose +1.77%. Energy (XLE +4.18%) was the top sector of the day, rallying off news of stimulus for the transportation industry. Financials (XLF +1.29%) ended the day in second. Materials (XLB +0.83) was in second most of the day, but faded to fifth in the afternoon rally. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) was the only losing sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.10% for the day. The US 30y treasury bond yields declined for the day while 10y treasury bond yields made a slight advance. The US 2y yields rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices continue to rise and are at their highest level since February. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb higher. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!), and Aluminum (ALI1!) all advanced. Bullish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.546, continuing toward the overly bullish side. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders It was not a particularly exciting day for the four biggest mega-caps. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (APPL) both advanced +0.11% for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.21% while Amazon (AMZN) lost -0.87%. We're still waiting for Amazon to breakout of the pattern after smashing earnings and revenue estimates in last week's quarterly update. NVIDIA (NVDA) was the winning mega-cap of the day with a +6.24% gain. Walt Disney (DIS +4.88%) and PayPal (PYPL +4.72%) also topped the mega-cap list. Exxon Mobil (XOM +4.30%) benefited from the transportation stimulus news that boosted the Energy sector. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) made another big advanced with a +10.34% gain. Square (SQ) gained +8.15%. Mohawk Group (MWK) gained +20.48%. Many popular growth stocks had big advances for the day. Chegg (CHGG) is up 4% after hours upon beating earnings expectations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Short-term energy outlook data will be released before market open tomorrow. Just after open the JOLTs Job Openings data for December will be released. FOMC Member Bullard will make comments in at noon. Weekly Crude Oil stock will be released after market close. Cisco (CSCO) is the biggest company to release earnings tomorrow after market close. Twitter (TWTR) and Enphase (ENPH) will also announce earnings tomorrow. There are a large amount of earnings releases this week, so check your portfolio for earnings events so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +0.43% increase for Tuesday. There may be some resistance at the round number 14,000. However, more progress with the stimulus bill should get the index past that line. The one-day trend line is pointing to a -0.31% loss. The regression trend line is nearly horizontal, offset by the morning gap and late afternoon rally. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a small -1.03% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -4% below Friday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors opened up the week with optimism and bullish action. The high-hopes for stimulus, with the addition of transportation industry support helped. In addition, FOMC Member Mester reinforced the message that monetary policy would continue until we are sure the economy is showing strong recovery. Bullish optimism is high, which can be a sign of a pullback. Investors seem optimistic, but with one foot out the door. The expectation is the market would move higher tomorrow. However, caution is always necessary as a number of news catalyst could send the index in the other direction. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week In Review - 2/1/2021 - 2/5/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, February 1, 2021 Facts: +2.55%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 59% Good: Close back above the 21d EMA, steady climb after morning dip Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 3.19, three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.61%), DJI (+0.76%), RUT (+2.53%), VIX (-8.61%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.60%) and Technology (XLK +2.51%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.09%) and Health Services (XLV +0.38%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher February kicked off with broad gains across the Nasdaq. The index took a short dip in the morning and then headed upward for the rest of the day. Manufacturing data released after market open was a little lower than analyst expectations, but still high compared to the two-year monthly average. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +2.55% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 91% and the 59% green body show the strong buying that occurred throughout the day after a morning dip. The index closed above the 21d EMA, a key area of support. Many participants benefited from the gains as there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 2, 2021 Facts: +1.56%, Volume higher, Closing range: 82% (with gap), Body: 60% Good: Solid gains throughout the morning and early afternoon. Bad: Slight fade in late afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, thick green body with small upper wick from fade Advance/Decline: 2.81, almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.39%), DJI (+1.57%), RUT (+1.19%), VIX (-15.48%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.42%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.12%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.43%) and Health Services (XLV +0.29%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher The market added to Monday's gains with another positive day on Tuesday. Volatility fell back to more stable levels while gains continued to be spread broadly across stocks. The market faded slightly going into close, possibly as investors prepared for earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL). The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.56% gain on higher volume. The closing range with the gap was 82% and a 60% green body sits under a short upper wick created by the late afternoon fade. The rising window candle indicates a bullish continuation, but with some caution given the fade into close. Almost three stocks advanced for each declining stock, the second day of broad advances. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 3, 2021 Facts: -0.02%, Volume higher, Closing range: 18%, Body: 78% Good: Higher high, higher low, held support above morning low Bad: Sell off late afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly red body formed from morning and afternoon dips Advance/Decline: 1.65, almost three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.10%), DJI (+0.12%), RUT (+0.38%), VIX (-10.37%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +4.27%) and Communications (XLC +1.34%)were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.56%) and Health Services (XLV +0.29%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The Nasdaq paused today after two days of big gains. It made two attempts to have another day of gains, but dipped in morning and late afternoon trading. Still there were advances across a large number of stocks, fueled by great earnings reports from big mega-caps the day before. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.02% loss, moving sideways after gaining over 4% the past two days. Volume was slightly higher than the previous days. The closing range of 18% and a red body of 78% are the result of the morning and late-afternoon dips. Overall, the candle presents bearish, so expectations are set for sideways or lower. Advancing stocks did outnumber declining stocks on a 3 to 2 ratio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 4, 2021 Facts: +1.23%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 71% Good: Constant gain after morning dip, new all-time high Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with short lower wick, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.70, More than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.09%), DJI (+1.08%), RUT (+1.98%), VIX (-4.98%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.22%) and Technology (XLK +1.60%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.36%) was the only sector to lose for the day. Expectation: Higher A positive expectation breaker is always welcome in the Daily Market Update. Despite yesterday's candle showing some bearish indication, today the Nasdaq proved it wasn't ready to move back down. A new all-time high adds to the string of higher highs and higher lows we've had all week. The index closed with a +1.23% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day but continues to be higher than the 50d moving average volume. The candle has a closing range of 100% created by a spike in prices in the last 10 minutes of trading. The short lower wick was created in a 30 minute window of volatility in the morning. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 5, 2021 Facts: +0.57%, Volume lower, Closing range: 81%, Body: 27% Good: New all-time high, not overly heated gain Bad: Some pullback in the afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin body in upper half of the candle, longer lower wick from morning dip. Advance/Decline: 1.95, two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.39%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (+1.40%), VIX (-4.13%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.72%) and Communications (XLC +1.26%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.22%) was the bottom sector for the day. Expectation: Higher The markets topped a bullish week with one more gain on Friday. Every day this week produced a higher high and a higher low on the Nasdaq. The broad market rally continued despite disappointing employment data as investors hope the data will accelerate the stimulus bill through congress. The index closed with a +0.57% gain on lower volume. The closing range was 81%. The long lower wick, created by a morning dip right after open, is below a 27% body. The opening price became support in the afternoon as the index tested the area twice. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) This was one of the best weeks since November. The previous was the worst week since October. Déjà vu. You may remember the very short market correction we had back in late October. Within just a few days we had into a new market correction and back to a confirmed uptrend. This past two weeks marks a similar journey, dipping from new all-time highs to below the 21d EMA in a few days, and then back to new all-time highs a few days later. The Nasdaq finished the week with a +6.01% gain on lower volume. Volume was lower, but still above average. The closing range of 97% and a 85% green body marks a week where every day had a higher low and higher high. The steady climb throughout the week only paused on Wednesday. The bullish week was shared across segments with the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and the Dow Jones Industrial approaching a new all-time high. All sectors in the SPDR ETF list had gains for the week. The rally was fueled by growing investor confidence and optimism for the stimulus. The previous week, investor confidence was shaken by a flurry of retail trading targeted at a few stocks which disrupted hedge funds and trading platforms. The average closing range for the past 14 weeks has been at 70%, but is 60% over the past six weeks. The closing range for the past six weeks has rotated weekly from the lower half of the weekly candles to the upper half of the weekly candles. One week will be an accelerated gain, followed up by a week to pause or even pullback. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +4.65% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial (DHI) advanced +3.89%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the top performer of the major indexes with a +7.70% gain. Energy ( XLE ) was back on top for the first week of February. The sector benefited from higher than expected demand in oil that also raise crude oil prices throughout the week. Technology ( XLK ) started the week in the lead, having a strong Monday. The Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) took the lead on Tuesday. Financials ( XLF ) briefly moved to the top spot on Thursday, but was soon passed by Energy again. Health Care ( XLV ) was at the bottom of the list for the week. Materials ( XLB ) was the worst performing sector on Thursday, but led the sectors on Friday. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Bond yields both rose significantly for the week. The US 2y treasury bond yield dropped. This resulted in a yield curve that is at its steepest since 2015. The steep curve is a result of investors seeing better growth for the economy in the short term, given that some form of stimulus is just around the corner. Economic activity is already recovering and more stimulus will make it stronger. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) had its highest weekly close since before the March market crash. Investors are preferring the riskier High Yield Corporate bonds to the Investment Grade Corporate bonds (LQD). The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.51% for the week. Silver (SILVER) had a wild ride this week as it was targeted by retail traders. It ended the week down -0.15%. Gold (GOLD) dropped -1.83%. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!) gained a massive +8.40% week and drove Energy (XLE) to the top of the sector list. Timber (WOOD) was up +4.95%. Similar to the indexes, it has been rotating up and down for the past six weeks. Copper (COPPER!1) advanced +2.20%. Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +1.85%. Much of the advance for these came in the last day of the week when the Materials sector (XLB) also led the sector list for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps We've been tracking the breakouts of the four big mega-caps over the past few weeks. Since the September correction, that had all been consolidating. However, the past two weeks brought earnings announcements. Microsoft (MSFT)'s breakout is going well, gaining 14% over the past three weeks. Alphabet (GOOGL) has advanced over 20% in the same time. Apple (AAPL) attempted a breakout last week, but the breakout broke down and did not resume this week. However, it is still holding above the 10w MA and is creating higher lows each week. It's reasonable to expect another breakout move in the next week. Amazon (AMZN) released earnings this past week and although the numbers were great, the market reacted to the news that Jeff Bezos would step aside. Nonetheless, you see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows leading the stock out of the consolidation range. The action of these mega-caps influences the indexes which influence the market. Keep an eye on them. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.578, back to overly bullish optimism. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the Greed level, but is not at an extreme level. Money managers lowered their exposure level for another week according to the NAAIM Exposure Index. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead There is no major economic events scheduled for Monday, however keep an eye on the stimulus progress as it moves through congress. Tuesday will bring the EIA short-term energy outlook and a new JOLTs Job Openings report for December. Core CPI for January will be released on Wednesday before market open. This is a key indicator to measure inflation and is how the Fed targets the 2% ideal inflation number. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated after the market opens. Thursday brings the OPEN Monthly Report in the morning. Initial Jobless Claims will be released before market open. And the Fed will release its Monetary Policy Report mid-morning. On Friday, we'll get an update on Consumer Sentiment for February. It will be another busy week for earnings reports. Softbank (SFTBF) will announce on Monday. Chegg (CHGG) releases earnings after market close on Monday. Twitter (TWTR) announces on Tuesday. Coca-Cola (KO), Toyota (TM), Uber (UBER), and General Motors (GM) all release earnings on Wednesday. Zillow (Z), Zynga (ZNGA) also on Wednesday. Walt Disney (DIS), Pepsi (PEP), DexCom (DXCM), DataDog (DDOG), Cloudflare (NET), Expedia (EXPE) are all on Thursday. That is a very abbreviated list of earnings throughout the week. Be sure to check for scheduled earnings reports for stocks in your own portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side After a bearish week last week, the market told us it was not ready to back down yet. This week's strong recovery and steady bullish gains throughout the week are a statement to investors. The rally was driven by confidence in the economic recovery and optimism that a new stimulus bill will make economic recovery even better. It seems we've cleared past the retail investor craziness of the past few weeks. Although Wall Street Bets will continue to exist, I think a large enough number of those investors got burned by buying near the top that we'll see less commitment to future short squeeze attempts. Earnings reports have continued to outperform expectations. As you page through the reports for the past two weeks, earnings expectations are being beat in all cap segments and all industry sectors. Those expectations were lowered by analysts worried about the economy, but the results bring more confidence in the strength of the recovery. The treasury yield curve is a big indicator of what investors are expecting from the economic recovery and impact of further stimulus. Investors are moving away from longer term bonds and into shorter term treasury bonds. They are moving from safe Investment Grade corporate bonds to riskier High Yield corporate bonds. Energy is back at the lead for the sectors. Energy doesn't have to lead for market rallies, but when it is leading, the market is almost always in a rally. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Investor optimism remains a mix of overly bullish sentiment represented by the put/call ratio, but caution as seen by the CNN Fear & Greed indicators. The mix means investors want to stay in the market and capitalize on gains, but seem to have one foot out the door in case things go bad. That has resulted in this back and forth of up and down weeks the past six weeks. That back and forth has also resulted in a number of huge spikes in the VIX volatility index over the past 1.5 months. Analysts often see the number of spikes of 20% or more as an indicator of a pending downturn in the market. The passing of a stimulus seems likely, but is not guaranteed. It also seems certain that the package will change as negotiations continue in congress. The market may be sensitive to those changes and would definitely react negatively of the stimulus talks stall. There has been great progress in getting vaccines out to the public, but we are not out of the woods yet. Bad news could be new mutations or failure of the supply chain for producing the vaccines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: Friday's high of 13,878.61 will be the first test. Another weekly high would be a great sign for a continued rally. The next level will be 14,000 which could be met with round-number resistance. This is the tendency for traders to pick round-numbers for profit taking. Some may view 14,000 as potential top and move to the sidelines for safety. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: The 21d EMA is at 13,357.48. That is around 3.5% below Friday's close. The low of the week this past week is 13,132.47. Not creating a new low will be the first test of the downside. There is support at the 13,000 area, seen in the lows from the first week of 1/11. The 50d MA is at 12,899.22. A violation of this line will be an added warning side. It has not been tested since 11/4. Several possible areas of support at 12,550, 12,250, and 12,000. The 200d MA moved above the lows of October and is now about 20% below the index at 11,170.35. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a powerful week that many traders and investors saw a tremendous number of gains. That makes it tough to have an expectation for the next week. Will investors want to take some profits and move to the sidelines or will the rally continue, fueled by stimulus and more earnings reports that beat expectations? The key thing this past two weeks point out is that you can't overreact to market signals. Ending last week, you might have wanted to sell everything and run to safety. However, you would have missed out on a huge week of gains. So how do you handle the mixed signals? Follow your system. Look at where you're individual stock picks are doing against your buy and sell rules. If the market is signaling caution and fear is creeping in, then reduce position sizes, but avoid panic selling. Let's hope for another great week of gains! Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 2/5Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (67d), 2/1 (5d) and today 2/5 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 5, 2021 Facts: +0.57%, Volume lower, Closing range: 81%, Body: 27% Good: New all-time high, not overly heated gain Bad: Some pullback in the afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin body in upper half of the candle, longer lower wick from morning dip. Advance/Decline: 1.95, two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.39%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (+1.40%), VIX (-4.13%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.72%) and Communications (XLC +1.26%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.22%) was the bottom sector for the day. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The markets topped a bullish week with one more gain on Friday. Every day this week produced a higher high and a higher low on the Nasdaq. The broad market rally continued despite disappointing employment data as investors hope the data will accelerate the stimulus bill through congress. The index closed with a +0.57% gain on lower volume. The closing range was 81%. The long lower wick, created by a morning dip right after open, is below a 27% body. The opening price became support in the afternoon as the index tested the area twice. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.39% and +0.30%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) formed its second Marubozu White candle in as many days, gaining 1.40%. The bullish candle had no upper or lower wick with the open being the low of the day and the close being the high of the day. The VIX declined another -4.13%. Materials (XLB +1.72%) and Communications (XLC +1.26%) were the top sectors of the day. Technology (XLK -0.22%) was the only loosing sector for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.53% for the day, possibly due to the disappointing economic data. The US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields rose while the US 2y declined sharply. The yield curve continues to steepen since the beginning of the year. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb higher. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!), and Aluminum (ALI1!) all advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.578. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) added to recent gains with a +1.71% advanced. Amazon (AMZN) was up +0.63% as the market moves past this week's news. Microsoft (MSFT) had a small gain of +0.08% as the stock consolidates a bit on lower volume. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.46%. All four are trading above the key moving average lines, but below their all-time highs. Abbott Laboratories (ABT) was the leading mega-cap of the day with a +3.58% gain. ABT was following by Exxon Mobil (XOM +3.35%), Nike (NIKE +3.19%) and Toyota Motor (TM +1.92%). Digital Turbine (APPS) added to yesterday's big gain with a 14.11% advance today. SNAP (SNAP) rose +9.14% even after selling off -10% in yesterday's post market reaction to earnings. Magnite (MGNI) rose +26.25%. Peloton (PTON) declined -5.86% on warnings of continued slow delivery to new customers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. However watch for updates on the Stimulus bill over the weekend. SoftBank Group will announce earnings on Monday. Timing is not listed, but it's likely to be before US markets open. Chegg (CHGG) will release earnings after market close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +1.12% gain for Monday. The one-day trend is a bit under that line and points to a +0.54% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a small -0.58% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.54% below Friday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a positive end to a great week. Time to use the weekend to relax and enjoy the gains. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 2/4Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (66d), 1/29 (5d) and today 2/4 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, February 4, 2021 Facts: +1.23%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 71% Good: Constant gain after morning dip, new all-time high Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with short lower wick, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.70, More than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.09%), DJI (+1.08%), RUT (+1.98%), VIX (-4.98%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.22%) and Technology (XLK +1.60%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.36%) was the only sector to lose for the day. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A positive expectation breaker is always welcome in the Daily Market Update. Despite yesterday's candle showing some bearish indication, today the Nasdaq proved it wasn't ready to move back down. A new all-time high adds to the string of higher highs and higher lows we've had all week. The index closed with a +1.23% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day but continues to be higher than the 50d moving average volume. The candle has a closing range of 100% created by a spike in prices in the last 10 minutes of trading. The short lower wick was created in a 30 minute window of volatility in the morning. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) advanced +1.09% and +1.08%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other indexes with a +1.98% gain and a Marubozu White candle, represented by no lower or upper wick. It's 100% green body from open to close. The VIX continued to retreat with a -4.98% decline as volatility returns to lower levels. Financials (XLF +2.22%) and Technology (XLK +1.60%) were top sectors for the day. Energy (XLE +1.10%) also outperformed the S&P 500. That's significant since usually when Energy performs well, the rest of the market also performs well. Materials (XLB -0.36%) was the only sector to lose for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.39% for the day and continues to trend upward from the January 5 low. The US 30y treasury bond yield rose slightly while the US 10y and US 2y declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined about 2% for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb. Timber (WOOD) remained even. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.587. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index and the NAAIM exposure index both remain at reasonably cautious levels. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) advanced for the day while Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined. These big four mega-caps are all trading above key moving average lines. PayPal (PYPL) led the mega-caps with a +7.36% gain after beating earnings and revenue expectations in their earnings report. Visa (V), Bank of America (BAC) and Mastercard (M) were also at the top of the mega-cap list, leading the Financials sector for the day. Among growth stocks, Digital Turbine (APPS) led with a +19.79% gain after crushing their earnings expectations. Chinese fintech company UP Fintech (TIGR) added another day of huge gains with a 15.25% advance. After hours Pinterest (PINS) was up 9.73% upon beating earnings expectations. SNAP (SNAP) did not fare as well and was down -7.44%. Peloton (PTON) was down -8.14% despite beating expectations. They warned off continued delays in delivery due to a growing backlog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More employment data will be released before market open on Friday. In the afternoon, commodities trading data will be released. Speculative positions on Silver futures might be interesting. The end of the busy earnings week will bring some reports before market open, but none that are followed by this Daily Market Update. However, check the stocks in your portfolio to make sure you aren't surprised by earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +1.45% gain on Friday. The one-day trend is a bit under that line and points to a +0.73% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a small -0.32% pullback. If there is further downside, the 21d EMA line offers an area of support and is -3.37% below Thursday's close. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The positive expectation breaker was another sign that this market has room to grow. Liquidity is high in the market with above average volume. Investors continue to lack other places to move money, with Treasury Bond yields remaining low and gaining strength against other currencies. Expectation is for higher tomorrow, but never take that as a prediction. Always manage risk and protect the value you've worked so hard to build. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 2/3Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (64d), 1/27 (5d) and today 2/2 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, February 3, 2021 Facts: -0.02%, Volume higher, Closing range: 18%, Body: 78% Good: Higher high, higher low, held support above morning low Bad: Sell off late afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly red body formed from morning and afternoon dips Advance/Decline: 1.65, almost three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.10%), DJI (+0.12%), RUT (+0.38%), VIX (-10.37%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +4.27%) and Communications (XLC +1.34%)were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.56%) and Health Services (XLV +0.29%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq paused today after two days of big gains. It made an two attempts to have another day of gains, but dipped in morning and late afternoon trading. Still there were advances across a large number of stocks, fueled by great earnings reports from big mega-caps the day before. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.02% loss, moving sideways after gaining over 4% the past two days. Volume was slightly higher than the previous days. The closing range of 18% and a red body of 78% are the result of the morning and late-afternoon dips. Overall, the candle presents bearish, so expectations are set for sideways or lower. Advancing stocks did outnumber declining stocks on a 3 to 2 ratio. The S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) both advanced for the day, gaining +0.10% and +0.12%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes with a +0.38%. The Russell 2000 presented a much more bullish candle and so we will be watching closely the small caps for the next day or two. Sectors were mixed for the day. Energy (XLE +4.27%) led the sectors on soaring Crude Oil futures numbers. Communications (XLC +1.34%) was second, gaining momentum from Alphabet (GOOGL) which advanced on a great earnings report. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.56%) and Health Services (XLV +0.29%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.11% for the day. US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bond yields all rose for the day, signaling investors moving to riskier assets. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) gained slightly as it resumes a more normalized pattern after volatility earlier in the week. Gold (GOLD) declined slightly for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures continued to climb. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.687. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the day with a +7.28% gain after soaring nearly 10% intraday. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2%. Despite beating expectations on earnings and revenue, the announcement of Jeff Bezos moving from CEO to chairman was enough to pour water on the exciting results. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.46% while Apple (AAPL) declined -0.78%. Exxon Mobil (XOM +3.92%), Alibaba (BABA +3.51%) and Toyota Motor (TM +3.46%) were the other top advancing mega-caps for the day. Tesla (TSLA -2.07%) was the worst performing mega-cap, just behind Amazon. Chinese fintech company UP Fintech (TIGR) was a top growth stock with a +16.19% gain. GrowGeneration (GRWG) added to recent gains with another 9.15%. Two smaller growth companies that have become popular are Mohawk with a +12.56% gain and HyreCar with a +32.15% gain (almost 60% for the week). Both have been featured in my TradingView ideas. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims data will be released in the morning. Hopefully it will add to positive employment news that we received today. Factory Orders data for December will be released after market open. Additional FOMC members will speak in the afternoon. Social networking companies SNAP (SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS) will release earnings tomorrow after close. Peloton (PTON), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Unity Software (U), Paylocity (PCTY) are among growth stocks reporting. There is a long list of earnings reports tomorrow that I won't attempt to include all here. Check the stocks in your portfolio to make sure you aren't surprised by earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day, five-day and long term trendline from the 10/30 bottom are all pointing to gains for tomorrow. The range is from +0.35% to 1.41%. Expectation from the candle is sideways or lower, but a positive expectation breaker is always welcome. The 21d EMA line has provided support before last Friday's close below the line. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The sideways move today could be constructive for further gains to come. It allowed the moving average lines to catch a bit. Bullish optimism cooled off as measured by the put/call ratio. It also was a chance for the market to absorb the final two earnings releases from the four big mega-caps. The candle does indicate further pressure tomorrow, but the market can decide what it wants to do. Another day of mostly positive earnings reports could turn into more optimism and energy tomorrow, leading into another set of reports. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Daily Market Update for 2/2Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (64d), 1/27 (5d) and today 2/2 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, February 2, 2021 Facts: +1.56%, Volume higher, Closing range: 82% (with gap), Body: 60% Good: Solid gains throughout the morning and early afternoon. Bad: Slight fade in late afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, thick green body with small upper wick from fade Advance/Decline: 2.81, almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.39%), DJI (+1.57%), RUT (+1.19%), VIX (-15.48%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.42%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.12%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.43%) and Health Services (XLV +0.29%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market added to Monday's gains with another positive day on Tuesday. Volatility fell back to more stable levels while gains continued to be spread broadly across stocks. The market faded slightly going into close, possibly as investors prepared for earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL). The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.56% gain on higher volume. The closing range with the gap was 82% and a 60% green body sits under a short upper wick created by the late afternoon fade. The rising window candle indicates a bullish continuation, but with some caution given the fade into close. Almost three stocks advanced for each declining stock, the second day of broad advances. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.39%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +1.57%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +1.19%. All sectors gained for the day. Financials (XLF +2.42%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.12%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.43%) and Health Services (XLV +0.29%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.24% for the day. US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields continued gains for another day. The US 2y treasury bond yields advanced after three days of declines. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined sharply after huge gains yesterday fueled by retail investors targeting the commodity. Gold (GOLD) also declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures went up on positive inventory data. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined again to 0.545, signaling bullish optimism. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) all advanced for the day. Microsoft started the day with gains but closed with a light loss of -0.06%. All four are trading above key moving average lines, including Apple which had declined since earnings last week. Mastercard (MA), Tesla (TSLA), Bank of America (BAC) and Walt Disney (DIS) led the mega-caps with over 3.5% gains each. Alibaba (BABA) declined -3.85% after a premarket earnings report that showed record revenue but forecasted uncertainty for the Ant group as China tightens controls on the company. Chinese fintech company FUTU Holdings (FUTU) had another big gain of 11.40%. Organic plant and marijuana growing supply company, GrowGeneration (GRWG) gained 10.47% as optimism grows around a bill to legalize marijuana at the federal level. WorkDay (WDAY) and DraftKings (DKNG) also big gains, advancing +8.90% and +8.55%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Purchasing Managers Index data will be released in the morning for Services and Non-Manufacturing sectors which provides a view the level of economic activity. Crude Oil Inventories will be released at 10:30. Additional FOMC members will speak in the afternoon. PayPal (PYPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) are two significant earnings reports to be released after market close. Ebay (EBAY) will also report in the evening. Spotify (SPOT) will release earnings before market open. There is a long list of earnings reports tomorrow that I won't attempt to include here. Check the stocks in your portfolio to make sure you aren't surprised by earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance If Tuesday's one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, it points to a +0.93% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +0.40% gain. The five-day trend line is pointing to a -0.92% loss which would still be well above 21d EMA. The 21d EMA line has provided support before last Friday's close below the line. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The gap-up with solid gains for most of the day was very bullish for the index and broadly shared across the sectors and cap segments. The slight fade late in the day is likely due to the two significant earnings reports from mega-caps Amazon and Google which could influence the market heavily. So far it seems we are off to a bullish week after last week's selling. However, keep in mind that things can change quickly as stimulus and pandemic news occurs. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Daily Market Update for 2/1Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (63d), 1/26 (5d) and today 2/1 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, February 1, 2021 Facts: +2.55%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 59% Good: Close back above the 21d EMA, steady climb after morning dip Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 3.19, three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.61%), DJI (+0.76%), RUT (+2.53%), VIX (-8.61%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.60%) and Technology (XLK +2.51%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.09%) and Health Services (XLV +0.38%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview February kicked off with broad gains across the Nasdaq. The index took a short dip in the morning and then headed upward for the rest of the day. Manufacturing data released after market open was a little lower than analyst expectations, but still high compared to the two-year monthly average. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +2.55% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 91% and the 59% green body show the strong buying that occurred throughout the day after a morning dip. The index closed above the 21d EMA, a key area of support. Many participants benefited from the gains as there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.61% while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.76%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +2.53%. All sectors gained for the day. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.60%) and Technology (XLK +2.51%) were led the sector list. Real Estate (XLRE +2.26%) was also near the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.09%), Health Services (XLV +0.38%), and Utilities (XLU +0.48%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.44% for the day. US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields gained for the day while the 2y treasury bond yields declined. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) gained another 7%, fueled by retail investors targeting the commodity. Gold (GOLD) also advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures wend up. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined back to 0.567, signaling bullish optimism. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps gained with Amazon (AMZN) advancing the most with a +4.26% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) also had big gains with +3.32% and +3.60% respectively. Apple (AAPL) had a smaller gain at +1.65%, which was enough to close above its 21d EMA. Tesla (TSLA) was the top mega-cap of the day with a +5.83% gain. Very few mega-caps declined for the day. Growth stocks also did very well. Magnite (MGNI), Fiverr (FVRR) and SNAP (SNAP) were among top gainers with +12.59%, +9.38% and +7.39% advances. Chinese stocks Ehang Holdings (EH), Up Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) gained +22.81%, +18.50% and +5.62%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead FOMC Members Mester and Williams will speak tomorrow afternoon. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers will be released after market close. An update on Manufacturing activity for January will be released as the market opens on Monday. The last update showed Manufacturing activity at a record high level. Alibaba (BABA), Pfizer (PFE), United Parcel Service (UPS) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) will release earnings before market open. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) will release earnings after market close. There are many other earnings releases schedule for tomorrow, so be sure to check your portfolio for earnings events. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance If Monday's one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, it points to a +2.33% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +1.77% gain. The five-day trend line is pointing to a -2.32% loss which would be below the 21d EMA again. The 21d EMA line has provided support before Friday's close below the line. The 13,000 level also seems to be an area of support. The index held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Nasdaq made a nice recovery on this Monday after a bearish move in the previous week. Another day or two of gains would confirm the reversal and put us back on a path for higher highs. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week In Review - 1/25/2021 - 1/29/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 25, 2021 Facts: +0.69%, Volume higher, Closing range: 74%, Body: 13% Good: Stayed above the gap from last Wed, bulls fought back in afternoon Bad: Long sudden trip to the days low, volume heavy on the way down Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Similar to bearish doji star, but body a little thick Advance/Decline: 0.91, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (-0.12%), RUT (-0.25%), VIX (+5.84%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +2.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.00%) were top. Finance (XLF -0.73%) and Energy (XLE -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower There was expectation coming into the week that it would be choppy, but we didn't expect that chop to all happen within 30 minutes. But that's how it goes sometimes. Investors were already playing defense in the opening minutes of the day, despite the index setting a new all-time high. The bears a little late to wake up on a Monday morning, sold-off the index heavily, an hour after opening. But the bulls caught the downward action mid-morning and brought the Nasdaq back to gains in the afternoon. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.69% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 74% is typically good, but the 13% red body that is entirely above last week's bullish range is a possible reversal pattern. There were less advancing stocks than declining stocks as many stocks did not move back to positive territory after the morning sell-off. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 26, 2021 Facts: -0.07%, Volume lower, Closing range: 23%, Body: 56% Good: Low is well-above last week's highs Bad: Thich red body relative to rest of candle, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Mostly body with tiny upper and lower wicks, insider day Advance/Decline: 0.59, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.15%), DJI (-0.07%), RUT (-0.62%), VIX (-0.73%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.36%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) were top. Materials (XLB -1.38%) and Energy (XLE -2.14%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Although some wild happenings continue to occur in the market, the Nasdaq composite index had a rather boring day. And that can be a good thing. Yesterday's big dip and recovery followed a week of huge growth. So a day of mostly sideways action, which held lows well above last week's highs, can be very constructive for the index. The Nasdaq ended with a -0.07% on lower volume. The closing range of 23% and 56% red body sounds bad, but is within a candle that is only 0.73% from top to bottom. Compare that to the previous days candle that had a 2.70% trading range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 27, 2021 Facts: -2.61%, Volume higher, Closing range: 22%, Body: 63% Good: Not much, held support after closing last week's gap. Bad: Gap down, long red body with late day selling Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly body with visible upper and lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.19, five declining stocks for each advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.57%), DJI (-2.05%), RUT (-1.91%), VIX (61.64%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -1.28%), Energy (XLE -1.35%) were top. Communications (XLC -3.23%) was bottom. Expectation: Lower Today was a little more exciting then yesterday, but not in the way we wanted. The Nasdaq opened with a gap down, chopped back and forth and then sold off after the Fed announcements. The fed will keep current monetary policy and interest rates, but said there are still a lot of headwinds for the economy. The Nasdaq closed with a -2.61% loss after testing the 21d EMA. Volume was over 60% higher than the previous day. The gap down at open along with the selling during the day resulted in a 19% closing range and a 63% red body. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 28, 2021 Facts: +0.50%, Volume lower, Closing range: 11%, Body: 7% Good: Stayed above yesterday's lows Bad: Selling in the afternoon, could not hold the morning gains Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Long upper wick with thin body at bottom of candle Advance/Decline: 1.29, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.98%), DJI (+0.99%), RUT (-0.10%), VIX (-18.81%) Sectors: Financial (XLF +1.86%) and Materials (XLB +1.72%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.31%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The Nasdaq tried to have a bullish day but was turned away by the bears in the afternoon. There was still a gain for the day, but if the market was open another hour, that gain might have been wiped out. The index closed with a +0.50% for the day. The volume was lower than the previous day, but well above the 50d moving average volume. The closing range of 11% and the 7% body with a long upper shadow, is the result of the morning gains being turned into afternoon selling. Still, at the end of the day there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 29, 2021 Facts: -2.00%, Volume lower, Closing range: 25%, Body: 64% Good: Closed above 13,000 Bad: Everything else, below 21d EMA, thick red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with visible, but not long, upper and lower wicks. Advance/Decline: 0.46, two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.93%%), DJI (-2.03%), RUT (-1.56%), VIX (+9.53%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU -0.54%) and Health Services (XLV -0.84%) were top. Energy (XLE -3.32%) and Technology (-2.36%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower It was not a great way to end January, which until this week was a rather bullish month for investors. The onslaught of retail traders on hedge funds proved to be too much for the market to handle. Not all of the downside is due to the crazy trading, but some of it is from large hedge investors covering lost short bets by selling long positions. And some of it is likely the added uncertainty that the actions brought to the market. Add to that some mixed vaccine news which has been impacting markets lately. The index closed with a -2.00% loss to end one of the worst weeks since October. The volume was lower than the previous day, but still above the 50d moving average volume. The closing range of 25% and 64% body shows a decidedly bearish day which brought the index to its first close below the 21d EMA line since early November. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) There are a number of things to study and learn from this week. Far more than I'll be able to unwrap and understand in this week's market in review. Things like the retail onslaught of hedge funds and free trading platforms will likely be studied in the history books. After an all-time high on Monday morning, things unraveled from there as the week progressed. As conditions worsened, the put/call ratio got lower, indicating optimism, while the CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward fear. By Wednesday's survey the NAAIM exposure index that tracks money manager's exposure to the market had moved from 112 the previous week to 85 this week. On Monday's daily update I wrote, "I believe eventually the stock manipulation, whether by a few individuals or a mass community of investors, will cause reaction from market makers, regulators, and lawmakers and have a negative impact on retail investors. It's something to keep monitoring." The impact that is to come is still unfolding, but a few things started to emerge. The retail trader attack on hedge funds seemingly worked. As Melvin Capital neared bankruptcy from huge losses on short bets, competitors Citadel and Point72 bailed them out with $2.75 billion of investment. A big question to answer is why they bailed out a competitor with a non-controlling investment. Prehaps they already had investments in Melvin to protect. Whatever it is, likely there would have been harm to Citadel and Point72 if Melvin failed. If it could cascade across competitors, then it can cascade further. On Thursday, retail traders turned their anger on Robinhood as it needed to stop trading of volatile stocks in order to meet financial demands of their arrangement with clearing houses, including Citadel. Robinhood's investors brought another $1 billion of capital to Robinhood so they could continue to operate and open back some trading of the volatile stocks. That only caused another surge in stock prices on Friday, and an expanding list (up to 50 most recently) of stocks that are being limited on the platform. The story is not over, and we'll continue to watch and learn from this tipping point of retail casino investing. A question yet to be answered is what if Robinhood fails. How far does the damage extend beyond its own members. The market came into the week already cautious. Monday morning saw the Utilities sector in the lead even before the mid-morning sell-off began. Utilities and Real Estate would stay near the top of the sector list throughout the week and along with Consumer Staples, make up the top three ad the end of the week. The last time Real Estate and Utilities led for a week was in February 2020. No fear. Just fact. The index made attempts on Tuesday and Thursday to hold support. On Tuesday, the action was mostly sideways even though a slight decline. Bulls attempted a rally on Thursday, only to see the gains get sold off in the afternoon. The regression trend lines that I use all showed gains for Friday. That wasn't so much a sign of a possible upward reversal, it was screaming that we were at the bottom of all three regression trend channels, and heading farther south. Friday would confirm that direction with another big sell-off. Many will point to the fact that hedge funds needed to sell long positions to cover their short positions. However, that's a small part of the selling. More likely nervousness was ripping through the market as retail traders expand the huge lists of targeted stocks. The Nasdaq declined -3.49% for the week on the highest weekly volume in its history. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.93%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DHI) declined -2.03%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -1.56%. The closing range for the week was 12% and the red body covered 82% of the candle. We did get a higher high on Monday. We also got a lower low than the previous week. The open and close are also entirely outside last week's range. That's a solid bearish engulfing candle. The huge gain last week and reversal this week has the appearance of a climax top. Real Estate ( XLRE ) and Utilities ( XLU ) are the top sectors for the week. Ouch! None of the sectors ended the week with gains as the S&P 500 pulled back -3.31%. Utilities led as the market opened on Monday morning. Communications ( XLC ) took a very brief lead on Tuesday, but the Real Estate took the top spot. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) attempted to take the lead on Wednesday, but couldn't hold the lead and ended in third place. Energy ( XLE ) was the worst performing sector of the week. The chart clearly shows the wild ride for the sectors on the last three days of the week. Wednesday had all sectors losing for the day. On Thursday, all sectors advanced . On Friday all sectors declined again. The relatively smooth ride for Real Estate, Utilities and Consumer Staples represents their position as defense moves for investors. All three sectors represent parts of the economy that must continue, even if other parts are recovering slowly or even failing. US 10y, 20y and 2y Treasury Bond Yields all declined for the week. However, note that on Friday the 10y and 20y yields rose 1.38% and 1.97% respectively while the 2y yield dropped by -9.44%. Keep in mind that yields go higher when investors are selling and yields go lower when investors are buying. Longer term bonds carry higher risk than shorter term bonds, so this was a quick turn on Friday to reduce risk. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices dropped for the week, which would be expected given the other signs that investors are reducing risk. The more significant sign of investors nervousness is that the Investment Grade Bonds (LQD) prices also dropped. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.38% for the week. Silver (SILVER) was up +5.76% while Gold (GOLD) dropped -0.44% for the week. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL1!) dropped back slightly with a -0.39% loss. Timber (WOOD) is down -4.31%. Copper (COPPER!1) is down -1.46%. Aluminum (ALI1!) is down +1.03%. In the previous week, the big four mega-caps drove the rally as they all seemed to break out of price and volume consolidation patterns. However, this week would disappoint investors as three of the four gave back those gains. Apple (AAPL) underperformed the market despite releasing a quarterly update that beat expectations on earnings and revenues. Microsoft (MSFT) was the only bright spot among these four, outperforming the market and remaining above the breakout from the previous week. Their earnings release was well received among investors with strength across multiple parts of the business. However, it did not escape the selling on Friday and ends the week with a long upper shadow. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) will report on 2/2. www.tradingview.com The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.782, a much better value than previous weeks. However, within the week the PCCE remained very low despite the several signs of trouble in the market. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into the fear level and has been there for most of the week, despite the put/call ratio indicating optimism most of the week. Money managers lowered their market exposure from the past week. Last week, exposure was at 112 as measured by the NAAIM exposure index, which is one of the highest leveraged levels since 2017. This week it is down to 85. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead The week will kick-off with Manufacturing PMI data for January. The purchasing managers index data jumped in January to its highest point in 14 years as the sector catches up from shutdowns and supply chain issues during the pandemic. That data along with positive manufacturing employment data could provide optimism for investors and bullishness for the US dollar. Non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on Wednesday. Non-manufacturing has not shown quite as much recovery as the Manufacturing sector. Additional employment data will be made available on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. It will be another busy week of earnings reports from large-cap companies. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) will kick-off the week with earnings before market open on Monday. Tuesday morning will bring earnings updates from Pfizer (PFE), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and United Parcel Service (UPS). Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) will release earnings on Tuesday evening. PayPal (PYPL), (Qualcomm (QCOM), and Ebay (EBAY) release earnings on Wednesday. Peloton (PTON) and Fortinet (FTNT) will announce on Thursday. That is a very abbreviated list of earnings throughout the week. Be sure to check for scheduled earnings reports for stocks in your own portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side The market set another all-time high this past week. That is 10 weeks in a row. The pullback later in the week is expected after such a long run of gains. Although some stocks dropped despite great earnings reports, there are some that were rewarded, such as Microsoft. The pullbacks achieved what is needed to bring some stability to the market as it continues a bullish run. Investor sentiment was brought back from the high levels of previous weeks and the added caution to the market can help make gains on more solid ground. The Fed this past week announced a continuation of monetary policy. They will continue purchasing mortgage back securities to keep liquidity in the market. They also will continue the low interest rates that have kept investors out of bonds and into equities and other higher risk/reward assets. The intended impact of higher inflation seemed to begin showing up in the Core PCE data this week, while not so high to cause a change in policy. The government is still pending additional stimulus. That stimulus when released will inject even more liquidity into the economy and raise confidence for investors. Stimulus checks may just start to unlock consumer spending that has been held back by fears. Help with rent and employment will increase consumer confidence. The record consumer savings accumulated over the past year might just get unleashed into the economy as well. Great earnings reports from the big mega-caps could bring some new support and even momentum upward to the market… -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side …Disappointing earnings reports from the big mega-caps could be too much for markets to handle right now. There is a lot to support the bearish side this week and I covered much of it in "The Meaning of Life" section. The retail traders of WSB did more than just cause damage to a hedge fund. They revealed some fairly big shortcomings in how the market operates, especially when it comes to supporting a massive rush of retail traders. Those cracks in the system are no doubt under deep scrutiny right now by market makers, regulators and legislators. The changes that come may be a shock to the system. It's clear that investors were moving from riskier assets to safe investments at the end of the week. Sell-off of equities on Friday, as well as corporate high yield and investment grade bonds. Move from long-term to short-term treasury bonds. The put/call ratio moved significantly upward as investors hedged against losses. Despite Democrats controlling both sides of congress, the stimulus, or parts of it, may never get passed. Some are seeing that stimulus checks are not having the intended impact and want to reduce the amount, or the thresholds of income for people who receive them. Other rescue packages might feel too big or too broad and get nay votes even from Democrats. The charts surely warn of a breakdown in the index. It market doesn't have to continue downward, but that's the direction the bearish engulfing candle is telling us now. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: The 21d EMA turned from a support line to a resistance line during the week. You can see this from intraday charts. It is at 13,165.22. Getting past this resistance is the first step. The next challenge is getting back through the gap created the previous week and into the overhead supply resistance. That is right around the 10d MA at 13,366.74. If the index can move into the overhead supply, it may be a bit choppy, but it can start to head toward a new all-time high at 13,728.98. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: The low of the week this past week is 12,985.05. Not creating a new low will be the first test of the downside. There is support at the 13,000 area, seen in the lows from the first week of 1/11. The 50d MA is at 12,720.83. A violation of this line will be an added warning side. It has not been tested since 11/4. Several possible areas of support at 12,550, 12,250, and 12,000. The 200d MA moved above the lows of October and is now about 15% below the index at 11,041.56. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There are some things to be nervous about this week. Signs have shown since Monday that the market is not just pulling back but reversing downward. However, that direction is not written in stone. The market can decide when it wants to go up and when it wants to go down. It's a good time to rank the investments you have and decide which ones require some reduction in exposure. However, keep an open mind to the ones still showing strength. Finally, pullbacks are the best time to watch for relative strength of stocks in the market. Look for those stocks that are not dropping as fast or far as the index. These stocks will likely do the best when an upside reversal comes. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/29Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (62d), 1/25 (5d) and today 1/29 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 29, 2021 Facts: -2.00%, Volume lower, Closing range: 25%, Body: 64% Good: Closed above 13,000 Bad: Everything else, below 21d EMA, thick red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with visible, but not long, upper and lower wicks. Advance/Decline: 0.46, two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.93%%), DJI (-2.03%), RUT (-1.56%), VIX (+9.53%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU -0.54%) and Health Services (XLV -0.84%) were top. Energy (XLE -3.32%) and Technology (-2.36%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was not a great way to end January, which until this week was a rather bullish month for investors. The onslaught of retail traders on hedge funds proved to be too much for the market to handle. Not all of the downside is due to the crazy trading, but some of it is from large hedge investors covering lost short bets by selling long positions. And some of it is likely the added uncertainty that the actions brought to the market. Add to that some mixed vaccine news which has been impacting markets lately. The index closed with a -2.00% loss to end one of the worst weeks since October. The volume was lower than the previous day, but still above the 50d moving average volume. The closing range of 25% and 64% body shows a decidedly bearish day which brought the index to its first close below the 21d EMA line since early November. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.93% while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) lost -2.03%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) did a little better with a -1.56% loss. All sectors lost for the day with Utilities (XLU -0.54%), Health Services (XLV -0.84%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.05%) having the smallest declines. Technology (XLK -2.36%) and Energy (XLE -3.32%) declined the most. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.14% for the day. US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields gained for the day while the 2y treasury bond yields declined. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) continued its rapid gain. Gold (GOLD) also advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) bot declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.782. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) closed below their 21d EMA. Amazon tested the 50d MA but bounced and closed higher. Alphabet (GOOGL) dipped below the 21d EMA but closed above the line. Microsoft (MSFT) is still trading well above the moving average lines, despite a -2.29% pullback from yesterday's all-time high. Only Microsoft ended the week with a weekly gain. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) and Abbot Laboratories (ABT) were among only a handful of mega-cap stocks with gains. Tesla (TSLA) had its third day of losses as it dropped another -5.02% Not many growth stocks found gains for the day. Moderna (MRNA) seemed to benefit from news that the vaccine from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is only 66% effective. Moderna gained +8.53% for the day. DataDog (DDOG) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) both held up nicely with good gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead An update on Manufacturing activity for January will be released as the market opens on Monday. The last update showed Manufacturing activity at a record high level. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) will release quarterly earnings before market opens on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend lines moved significantly with this week's close. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom is point at +4.19%. That does not seem possible for Monday, but shows how far we've regressed from that trend midline. The five-day trend line points to a -0.07% loss. The one-day trend line points to a -1.59% loss. The 21d EMA line provided support early in today's session and then became resistance in the afternoon. The 13,000 level does seem to be holding for now. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If you had your trader eyes shut, its ok to open them now. It really wasn't that bad. The weekend is here and it's time to take a breather. Take a step back and look at the weekly progress of the stocks in your portfolio. After a few days of declines it's important to assess the bigger picture. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/28Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (61d), 1/22 (5d) and today 1/28 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 28, 2021 Facts: +0.50%, Volume lower, Closing range: 11%, Body: 7% Good: Stayed above yesterday's lows Bad: Selling in the afternoon, could not hold the morning gains Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Long upper wick with thin body at bottom of candle Advance/Decline: 1.29, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.98%), DJI (+0.99%), RUT (-0.10%), VIX (-18.81%) Sectors: Financial (XLF +1.86%) and Materials (XLB +1.72%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.31%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq tried to have a bullish day but was turned away by the bears in the afternoon. There was still a gain for the day, but if the market was open another hour, that gain might have been wiped out. The index closed with a +0.50% for the day. The volume was lower than the previous day, but well above the 50d moving average volume. The closing range of 11% and the 7% body with a long upper shadow, is the result of the morning gains being turned into afternoon selling. Still, at the end of the day there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) both gained about 1% but also had long upper shadows. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.10%. All sectors had gains for the day. Financial (XLF +1.86%) and Materials (XLB +1.72%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.31%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.21% for the day. US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bond yields all gained for the day. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices recovered from yesterday's dip. Silver (SILVER) had a huge 4.99% gain while Gold (GOLD) moved sideways. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) also advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.561. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The NAAIM exposure index dropped back to 83.51 from the very high level of 112.93 last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft led the four biggest mega-caps with a +2.59% gain and a new all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the day with a +1.88% gain. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.16%. Apple (AAPL) was the only loser of the four with a decline of -3.50%. Comcast (CMCSA) gained +6.57% after beating expectations in their pre-market earnings announcement. and Walt Disney (DIS +5.43%) led the for mega-caps. Tesla (TSLA -3.32%) joined Apple at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Many growth stocks did well for the day. Penn National Gaming (PENN) was a big winner with a +9.55% gain. Square (SQ) had a +8.62% gain as it tries to reverse a recent downtrend. SNAP (SNAP +8.54%) also had a big gain. Beyond Meat (BYND), Sumo Logic (SUMO) and Palantir (PLTR) gave up some of the recent gains with losses from 6-9%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Before market open tomorrow, updates for consumer price index data, personal spending and employment cost will be released. The data can be important to understanding the degree of inflation, but also whether there will be more or less pressures on consumers in the near term. For example, higher price index data with lower employment cost would show more pressure and maybe confirmed in the personal spending data and the consumer sentiment data to be release after market open. Pending Homes Sales will also be released after market open. Eli Lilly (LLY), Chevron (CVX) and Honeywell (HON) top the list of large companies releasing earnings before market open tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance All three trend lines are pointing to a gain tomorrow. The long-term trend from the 10/30 bottom points toa +2.32% gain. The one-day trend points to a +1.25% while the five-day trend is pointing to a +0.44% gain. On the downside, the 21d EMA is right under yesterday's low and could offer support for tomorrow. That's around a -1.10% decline. In addition to the 21d EMA, the previous two week's highs around 13,200 acted as support after the index closed last week's gap up. Beyond that, 13,000 support seemed to hold up well. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seemed a bit of a stalling day for the index as it made gains through the morning and early afternoon only to give up those gains in the late afternoon. It was good to stay above yesterday's lows, but the index was not able to make a new high today. The inside day with the long-upper wick sets and expectation for another sideways or lower move tomorrow. However, the index could also find support at the 21d EMA and bounce the other direction. The regression trend-lines that I use all point to gains. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 1/27Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (60d), 1/21 (5d) and today 1/26 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 27, 2021 Facts: -2.61%, Volume higher, Closing range: 22%, Body: 63% Good: Not much, held support after closing last week's gap. Bad: Gap down, long red body with late day selling Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Mostly body with visible upper and lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.19, five declining stocks for each advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.57%), DJI (-2.05%), RUT (-1.91%), VIX (61.64%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -1.28%), Energy (XLE -1.35%) were top. Communications (XLC -3.23%) was bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Today was a little more exciting then yesterday, but not in the way we wanted. The Nasdaq opened with a gap down, chopped back and forth and then sold off after the Fed announcements. The fed will keep current monetary policy and interest rates, but said there are still a lot of headwinds for the economy. The Nasdaq closed with a -2.61% loss after testing the 21d EMA. Volume was over 60% higher than the previous day. The gap down at open along with the selling during the day resulted in a 19% closing range and a 63% red body. There were five declining stocks for every advancing stock The S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) all closed with losses. The RUT had the smallest loss at -1.91%, but still a big pullback. The VIX gained 61.64% for the day and ended with a 100% closing range. It is at the highest point since the beginning of November. All sectors lost for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -1.28%) and Energy (XLE -1.35%) were the smallest losses. Communications (XLC -3.23%) had the biggest loss. Energy was in positive territory at mid-day before the late afternoon sell-off. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.53% for the day. US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields declined for the day. US 2y treasury yields gained for the day. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) gained as inventory data showed a better outlook on demand than the previous week. Timber (WOOD) declined -3.59% for the day. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose for the day, but remained at a low level of 0.588. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Three of the four largest mega-caps all declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest loss at -4.67%. Apple (AAPL) had the smallest loss at -0.77%, but declined another -3.23% after hours despite beating earnings and revenue expectations. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2.81%. Microsoft (MSFT) closed the session with a +0.25% advance, but at one point was up +3.5% after pleasing investors with yesterday's earnings release. Microsoft was the only mega-cap with a gain. Netflix lost nearly all of its post-earnings gap with a -6.88% loss today. A few growth stocks still did OK today. Palantir (PLTR) ended the day with a +10.26% gain, although was much higher mid-day. Beyond Meat (BYND) added to yesterday's big gains with a +2.81% gain. Tesla (TSLA) is down -5% in post-market trading after missing earnings expectations. Facebook (FB) is down -2.07% after hours, despite beating earnings and revenue expectations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow's economic news will include Q4 GDP data and Initial Jobless claims before market open. After the market opens, New Home Sales data for December will be released. Earnings tomorrow will include Mastercard (MA) before market open and Visa (V) after market close. Comcast (CMCSA) and McDonalds (MCD) will also announce earnings before market open. Atlassian (TEAM) will release earnings after market close. Several airlines including Southwest (LUV), American Airlines (AAL) and JetBlue (JBLU) will also release earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved back below the long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom. Returning to that line would be a +2.36% gain. The five-day trend line is under that point with a +1.74%. Continuing the one-day trend points to a -1.22% loss. That would be below the 21d EMA which provided support today. In addition to the 21d EMA, the previous two week's highs around 13,200 acted as support after the index closed last week's gap up. Beyond that, 13,000 support seemed to hold up well. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a distribution day for the major indexes today. Certainly a character change in the market. The gap up from last Wednesday's open was filled and the index seemed to pause at that point. As a defense to the selling, there was some purchasing of bonds but not a huge amount. The more alarming signal is the negative after hours reactions to fairly positive earnings reports from Apple and Facebook. Some extra caution is required heading into tomorrow's session. The market can choose which direction it wants to go, and that could be a reversal off the 21d EMA for gains tomorrow. Or it could be further downside. Take a look at your portfolio and have a plan based on your trading style and risk comfort level. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 1/26Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (59d), 1/20 (5d) and today 1/26 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 26, 2021 Facts: -0.07%, Volume lower, Closing range: 23%, Body: 56% Good: Low is well-above last week's highs Bad: Thich red body relative to rest of candle, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Mostly body with tiny upper and lower wicks, insider day Advance/Decline: 0.59, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.15%), DJI (-0.07%), RUT (-0.62%), VIX (-0.73%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.36%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) were top. Materials (XLB -1.38%) and Energy (XLE -2.14%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Although some wild happenings continue to occur in the market, the Nasdaq composite index had a rather boring day. And that can be a good thing. Yesterday's big dip and recovery followed a week of huge growth. So a day of mostly sideways action, which held lows well above last week's highs, can be very constructive for the index. The Nasdaq ended with a -0.07% on lower volume. The closing range of 23% and 56% red body sounds bad, but is within a candle that is only 0.73% from top to bottom. Compare that to the previous days candle that had a 2.70% trading range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) all closed with losses. The RUT had the biggest loss at -0.62%. The S&P 500 set a new all-time high before pulling back a bit. Communications (XLC +1.36%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) were at the top of the sector list. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.90%) and Technology (XLK +0.07%) were the only other sectors to end the day with gains. Materials (XLB -1.38%) and Energy (XLE -2.14%) were bottom. Energy was up 1.48% at open but quickly sold off to end the day in last place. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.24% for the day. US 30y treasury bond yields were flat while 10y yields rose slightly. 2y yields dropped as investors purchased the bonds. High Yields Corporate bond (HYG) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) remained flat. Timber (WOOD) advanced for the day. Copper (COPPER1!) remained flat while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped slightly to 0.524. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps ended the day with gains. Microsoft (MSFT) had the biggest gain of +1.22% and continued to advance after hours with a beat on earnings and revenue expectations. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) had gains of +0.98% and +0.72% respectively. Apple (AAPL) had the smallest gain of the four. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) led the mega-caps with a 2.71% gain after releasing pre-market earnings that beat expectations and gave positive guidance. Comcast (CMCSA) and AT&T (T) also had gains exceeding 2%, helping Communications to lead the sector list. Growth stocks had a mixed day. One of the big winners was Beyond Meat (BYND) which followed yesterday's 13% gain with a 17.7% gain today. The stock soared 40% after Beyond Meat revealed a partnership with Pepsi to make products from plant-based proteins. GameStop (GME) continued to…. nah, let's move on. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Core Durable Goods Orders data will be released before market open. Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. Today's API Weekly Crude number was lower than expected, a good sign for crude prices. The big economic news tomorrow will be from the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Out of the meeting, we will hear about changes in outlook on the economy and whether the Fed plans any changes to interest rates or monetary policy. Tomorrow will be another big day for earnings releases. Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA) and Facebook (FB) will all report earnings after market close. There are numerous other reports before and after the market, so be sure to check your portfolio for any companies that announce earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +0.68% gain. The one-day trend line points to another sideways day, slightly to the positive. The long trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a -0.55% loss. If there is a further downside move, its notable that the index held support today above last week's highs. The low was 13,567.14, and would hopefully continue to hold support above that area. The 21d EMA is at 13,146.21 which could offer an area of support at 3.44% below today's close. 13,000 support seems to be holding up well. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The indexes are doing what would be expected after last week's gains and Monday's big swings. Pausing for a day or two and allowing enthusiasm to cool off a bit will be good for the market. However, wild moves of stocks being manipulated by large groups of retail traders continues underneath the surface. Nothing is fundamentally broken, but continue to be cautious as always. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 1/25Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (58d), 1/19 (5d) and today 1/25 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 25, 2021 Facts: +0.69%, Volume higher, Closing range: 74%, Body: 13% Good: Stayed above the gap from last Wed, bulls fought back in afternoon Bad: Long sudden trip to the days low, volume heavy on the way down Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Similar to bearish doji star, but body a little thick Advance/Decline: 0.91, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (-0.12%), RUT (-0.25%), VIX (+5.84%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +2.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.00%) were top. Finance (XLF -0.73%) and Energy (XLE -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview There was expectation coming into the week that it would be choppy, but we didn't expect that chop to all happen within 30 minutes. But that's how it goes sometimes. Investors were already playing defense in the opening minutes of the day, despite the index setting a new all-time high. But the bulls caught the downward action mid-morning and brought the Nasdaq back to gains in the afternoon. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.69% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 74% is typically good, but the 13% red body that is entirely above last week's bullish range is a possible reversal pattern. There were less advancing stocks than declining stocks as many stocks did not move back to positive territory after the morning sell-off. The S&P 500 (SPX +0.36%), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -0.12%) and Russell 2000 (RUT -0.25%) all have their own candle patterns to represent the day. Each has a long lower wick, but only the RUT set a new all-time high, creating a long upper wick. The Dow Jones Industrial average is in a third day of a downward move. As investors came into the day defensive, Utilities (XLU +2.01%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.90%) moved to the top of the sector list even before everything turned downward around 10:30. At the end of the day, Utilities and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.00%) were at the top, with Real Estate at the bottom. Finance (XLF -0.73%) and Energy (XLE -1.02%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.12% for the day. US 30y, 20y and 2y treasury bond yields all dropped for the day. Those moves were also happening as the market opened, well before the 10:30a dip. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices increased slightly for the day, but did dip while the equity markets dipped in the morning. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures advanced slightly. Timber (WOOD) declined for the day. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.534. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps all ended the day with gains, although have the same long lower shadows as the index. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) faired the best with a +2.77% and +1.58% gain, respectively. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both had gains less than 0.1%. Tesla (TSLA) was the top mega-cap of the day with a +4.03% gain. Most mega-caps did ok. Intel (INTC) added to losses with a -2.15% decline. Paypal (PYPL), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Banc of America (BAC) led the Financial mega-cap losses with more than 1% declines. Some mega-caps did very well despite the big swings of the day. Beyond Meat (BYND) has no lower wick and a very high closing range with a 12.81% gain. Moderna (MRNS) gained +12.20% after announcing their vaccines will work with new strains of the COVID virus. Palantir (PLTR) had a huge intraday swing but ended the day with a 11.20% gain. GameStop (GME) continued the squeeze, or whatever we are calling it now. At one point it was up over 100%, but ended the day with an 18.12% gain. The stock has gained over 300% since the beginning of the year. Blackberry (BB) issued a public statement that there is no material difference in their business results that would drive a +28.42% gain in their stock price. I believe eventually the stock manipulation, whether by a few individuals or a mass community of investors, will cause reaction from market makers, regulators, and lawmakers and have a negative impact on retail investors. It's something to keep monitoring. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Confidence numbers for January will be released in the morning after market open. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers, which negatively surprised investors last week, will be updated in the afternoon. Tomorrow will kick-off the huge wave of earnings reports from big tech and other meg-caps. American Express (AXP) will announce earnings before market open. Consumer Staples company Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and home builder DR Horton (DHI) will also announce before market open. Microsoft (MSFT), AMD (AMD), Texas Instruments (TXN) will kick-off big tech after hours. There are a bunch more I won't list here, but do check your portfolio and plan accordingly for this week's earnings releases. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line points to a +1.14%. The one-day trend line and the long trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a -1.05% loss. If there is a further downside move, its notable that the index held support today above last Wednesday's gap up. The low was 13,329.77, and would hopefully continue to hold support above that gap. If the index would fill the gap, the other side is around 13,220. That's around a 3.0% decline. The 21d EMA is at 13,099.32 which could offer an area of support at 3.9% below today's close. 13,000 support seems to be holding up well. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a crazy day for many investors. I've heard numerous stories of portfolio's starting the day with record gains, but those gains were wiped out in 20-30 minutes. Still, the indexes and many stocks recovered from the sudden sell-off and ended the day with gains. On the weekly chart, we have a higher high and lower low. We can likely expect more choppiness this week as the indexes pause, move sideways or even pullback a bit and let moving averages catch up while heated gains cool off a bit. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
5 Ways to know where it is going...1) 61.8 Fib retracement level around 170 2) Resistance (which will become support around 170 3) Early November gap to be filled around 170 4) Unsustainable exhaustion pop (78 degree angle since early November) 5) Overbought, above the megaphone line Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
AMEX:IWMShort
by adventurous51