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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 1/21Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (56d), 1/14 (5d) and today 1/21 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 21, 2021 Facts: +0.55%, Volume higher, Closing range: 72%, Body: 9% Good: New all-time high, support at yesterday's close for higher low Bad: Thin body, indecisive candle Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin green body with visible upper and lower wicks could be a spinning top Advance/Decline: 0.79, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.03%), DJI (-0.04%), RUT (-0.89%), VIX (-1.20%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.29%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%), and Communications (XLC +0.35%) were the only advancing sectors. Energy (XLE -3.38%) was the worst performing sector. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a choppy session with some indecision from open to close on which direction the indexes wanted to move. In the end, investors ignored bleak unemployment data and ended the day with gains, albeit very concentrated in specific sectors. The Nasdaq ended with a +0.55% gain on higher volume. However the 9% body shows the indecision from open to close. The index dipped to create a long lower wick, then made new all-time highs before closing just above the open. The closing range of 72% and the higher high and higher low, makes for a slightly bullish candle. More stocks declined than advanced. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.89% for the day, continuing to trail the other major indexes this week. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) stayed about even for the day. The VIX declined -1.20%. Technology (XLK +1.29%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%), and Communications (XLC +0.35%) were the only advancing sectors. These three sectors all have large exposure to the biggest mega-caps which helped drive gains for the day. Energy (XLE -3.38%) was the worst performing sector. Energy dipped as crude oil prices took a hit from a surprise increase in US supply, and slower recovery in demand than expected. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.44% for the day. US 30y and US 20y treasury bond yields climbed back to recent highs while shorter term yields remained flat. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices decreased slightly for the day, but remain near recent highs. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced to a new multi-year high. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. The +3.67% increase in Aluminum futures comes after several weeks of declines. The commodity prices have pivoted today from recent trends. This will be something to watch for a continuation and new trend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.609. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index continues to rise. The NAAIM exposure is at its highest value since 2017. Money Managers are well into leverage with a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps, Apple (AAPL, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) all continued advances from yesterday. Apple and Alphabet set new all-time highs before retreating a bit. All four are well above the key moving average lines now. Intel (INTC) was the leading mega-cap, gaining +6.46% as investors anticipated the earnings announcement after hours. However earnings slipped despite record revenue and the stock fell back 4.74% in aftermarket trading Overall mega-caps were mixed. Energy and Financial stocks were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks were also mixed, but there were some big winners for the day. FUTU gained another 9.95%, but was outshined by the similar stock UP Fintech (TIGR) which gained 23.72%. Chinese FinTech companies have had quite a run the past few weeks. AirBnB (ABNB) gained 11.48%. Fastly (FSLY), Solar Edge (SEDG) and Moderna (MRNA) all gained over 6%. Digital Turbine (APPS -3.67%) fell back from yesterday's gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing and Services purchasing data will be released just after market open. These numbers show economic activity in the two sectors. Additional real estate data will be released a few minutes later. Crude Oil Inventories will be provided at 11:00 and could add to yesterday's negative news for the energy sector. Big oil company, Schlumberger (SLB) will release earnings before market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a gain of +0.40% to +0.77%. After a few days of gains, the index is well above the long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom. That line points to a loss of -0.96%. If there is a downside move, 13,000 support seems to be holding up well for the index and that's just above the 21d EMA now. The 21d EMA is around 3.8% below the index which should also offer support at the 13,000 level. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Yesterday was an explosive day of gains. It's no surprise that the index would take a breather today. The choppiness during the day is a reason for some caution. The gains were focused on larger caps that are breaking out from recent bases. The higher high and higher low is a great sign and we will hopefully continue the trend to finish the short week. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/20Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (55d), 1/13 (5d) and today 1/20 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 20, 2021 Facts: +1.97%, Volume higher, Closing range: 90%, Body: 73% Good: Gains the whole day and closing near the top of the range Bad: Gap up Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny lower wick and more visible upper wick from some selling at close Advance/Decline: 1.29, more advancing stocks than declining stock. Indexes: SPX (+1.39%), DJI (+0.83%), RUT (+0.44%), VIX (-7.14%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +3.14%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.08%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.42%) was the only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview If the equity market could talk, I think it would say Happy Inauguration Day. Investors breathed a sigh of relief that maybe some of the turmoil is behind us. That sentiment translated into a gap up at open with steady gains throughout the day. The Nasdaq closed with a big +1.97% gain on higher volume. The candle has a closing ranging of 82%, but including the gap the actual closing range is even better at 90%. The 73% green body and tiny lower wick shows the nearly constant gains that happened throughout the trading session. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks, but note that the breadth was not as wide as the previous day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained 0.43%, one of the few times in recent months where it has trailed the other indexes in performance. So there was a shift back towards the larger caps, but not enough to call it a rotation. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended with a +1.39% gain while the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.83%. Communications (XLC +3.14%) was the leading sector by a large margin. Technology (XLK +1.98%) looked like it would keep up with Communications in the morning, but faded behind Real Estate (XLRE +1.98%) by afternoon. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.89%) was the other stand-out sector. These four sectors drove the S&P 500 gains. All other sectors under-performed the major index. Only Financials (XLF -0.42%) declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined slightly to -0.03%. US 30y treasury bond yields stayed about even while US 10y and US 2y yields dropped. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices increased for the day and set a recent high. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures also rose. Timber (WOOD) and Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. These commodity trends have been consistent the past 4-5 days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.560. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps, Apple (AAPL, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) decided they finally wanted to join the market rally. All four turned in huge gains for the day. Alphabet was the biggest gain, advancing +5.36%. All four closed well above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA. Netflix was the top performing mega-cap after surprising investors with a record number of subscribers and the first time over 200m. The fact they did not meet earnings expectations, did not matter. The subscribers plus the announcement of a potential stock buyback program sent the price soaring. Most mega-caps had gains for the day. The large banks such as Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) were the worst performers. There were a lot of exciting moves among growth stocks as well. FUTU (FUTU) had another big advance with a +10.97% gain. Digital Turbine (APPS) also broke into new all-time highs with a +10.85% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will kick-off with real estate data before market open. That will include Building Permits and Housing Starts. Also before market open, there will be an update on Initial Jobless Claims and Manufacturing data for January. Fifth Third (FITB) and KeyCorp (KEY) are among financial companies reporting earnings before market open. Intel (INTC) will IBM (IBM) announce earnings after market close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance If today's trend line continues tomorrow, it points to a +1.08% gain tomorrow. The five-day trend line and long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom point to a small pullback of -0.44%. If there is a downside move, 13,000 support seems to be holding up well for the index and that's just above the 21d EMA now. The 21d EMA is around 3.8% below the index which should also offer support at the 13,000 level. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a bold statement made by the markets today as the US transitions to a new administration. Lots of great things happened including the big mega-caps joining the current market rally that started in November. The Financial sector declining on such a big day was one negative point. The sector is declining as more banks are releasing earnings that beat expectations on earnings but are disappointing on revenue. But keep in mind that the higher treasury bond yields, that are expected to drive more revenue in this sector, only came in the first week of January. Watch out for the gap created today. The index doesn't have to fill the gap, but it often has in the past. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/19Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (54d), 1/11 (5d) and today 1/19 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 19, 2021 Facts: +1.53%, Volume lower, Closing range: 92%, Body: 50% Good: Solid gains in afternoon after morning low, high closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick from morning dip, thick green body from afternoon Advance/Decline: 2.04, two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.81%), DJI (+0.38%), RUT (+1.32%), VIX (-4.52%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.01%), Communications (XLC +1.81%), and Technology (XLK +1.30%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.66%), Consumer Staples (XLP -0.44%), Utilities (XLU -0.38%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market started the trading week on a note of optimism after a long weekend. The end of the last week was marked with defensive moves into lower risk sectors and safe haven assets. Today, the opposite moves were made to begin a week that brings a transition for the US, the inauguration of President Biden. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.53% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 92% and a thick 50% green body are representative of the confident buying in the afternoon that produced the bullish session. The lows in the morning were just above Friday's open. After testing that low three times in the morning, the index finally turned to the upside for the rest of the session. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was just behind the Nasdaq with a +1.32% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) followed with a +0.81% and +0.38% gain respectively. The Nasdaq is nearing a new all-time high. The other major indexes are slightly farther from new all-time highs. The VIX volatility index declined by -4.52%. Energy (XLE +2.01%), Communications (XLC +1.81%), and Technology (XLK +1.30%) were top sectors for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -0.66%), Utilities (XLU -0.38%), and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.44%) were the only losing sectors. Having Real Estate and Utilities at the bottom is a significant change from the latter part of last week as investors reduced exposure in these defensive plays. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) dropped -0.29%. US 30y and US 10y treasury bond yields rose while US 2y treasury bonds dropped, widening the spread between longer term and shorter term bonds. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices increased for the day and are heading back to recent highs. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures also rose. Timber (WOOD) and Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped back to 0.553. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four mega-caps had gains for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest gain at +3.29% and moved above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) remains below its 21d EMA, but well-above the 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) had gains for the day, but remain below both of these moving average lines. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), ASML Holding (ASML), Facebook (FB) and Alibaba (BABA) were the top four mega-cap performers for the day. Most mega-caps gained for the day, however big retail Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Nike (NKE) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list with losses. There were a lot of big winners in growth stocks. FUTU (FUTU) rose +16.85%. Magnite Inc (MGNI) gained +15.47%. Etsy (ETSY) and Fastly (FSLY) both rose around 8%. At the bottom of the growth stock list was Fiverr (FVRR) which lost -10.05% after an analyst downgraded the stock. Netflix (NFLX) was up over 12% after hours. Their earnings announcement included a record number of subscriptions, exceeding 200m for the first time, driving record revenue. That was enough to excite investors, despite Netflix missing expectations on earnings. They also are considering share buybacks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow is the inauguration of President Joe Biden. His remarks during the day will put more focus on his priorities and impact markets accordingly. Otherwise there is not much economic news for tomorrow. Earnings announcements tomorrow include United Health (UNH), Proctor & Gamble (PG), ASML Holding (ASML) and Morgan Stanley (MS), all before market open. United Airlines (UAL) will release their earnings announcement after market close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day trend line meets up with the long trend line from the 10/30 bottom, and points to a +1.08% gain and a new all-time high. The five-day trend line points to a -0.44% pullback. If there is further downside, 13,000 seems to be holding up well for the index. The 21d EMA is just over 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's a further downside move. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The index started the week on a positive note. The bullish afternoon trading points to more upside for tomorrow. President Biden is likely to give additional clues to his immediate actions in his inauguration speech. Some of those actions may create some rotations, but overall the fed and further stimulus should hold the broader market in a good place. Keep an eye on investor sentiment as confidence builds this week. The put/call ratio is at a very low level. The CNN Fear & Greed index is not too bad, considering the context. However, the NAAIM Exposure Index is above 100, which often proceeds pull backs. Recently, Aug 26 and Oct 14 were examples of this. However, it was above 100 in November and December with not much impact to the markets. Remain confident, but also cautious. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Market Week In Review - 1/11/2021 - 1/15/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 11, 2021 Facts: -1.25%, Volume lower, Closing range: 27%, Body: 9% Good: Lower volume, stayed above 13k Bad: Morning gains turn to a new intraday low before close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Bearish inside day, thing body at bottom of candle Advance/Decline: 0.83, more declining than advancing Indexes: SPX (-0.66%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-0.03%), VIX (+11.69%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Health Services (XLV +0.47%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.87%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower It was tough to have any expectation coming into today's trading session. Nervousness about what will happen in DC on top of continuing pandemic pressures over the weekend resulted in a low start to the day. Confidence grew as buyers came in but ultimately the bears ruled the day, bringing the index back down to a new intraday low before close. The index closed with a -1.25% loss on lower volume. The bearish day resulted in a 27% closing range where the close is just under the open. The 9% body and long upper wick show the morning buying turning to afternoon selling. More stocks declined than advanced. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had similar patterns, but closed the day with smaller losses. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also had a loss but with a more bullish look and the smallest loss of the four indexes. The VIX volatility Index rose +11.69%. Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Health Services (XLV +0.47%) were the top sectors for the day. Crude Oil prices continuing to rise helped Energy take the top spot after a morning dip. Financials (XLF +0.32%) was the only other sector to gain for the day. Communications (XLC -1.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.87%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 12, 2021 Facts: +0.28%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 7% Good: Close in upper side of range, dipped just briefly below 13,000 Bad: Thin body, second indecisive day, LH/LL Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: An indecisive candle with close just above open, long lower shadow Advance/Decline: 2.23, more than two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.04%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (+1.77%), VIX (-3.11%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.49%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.61%) and Health Services (XLV -1.09%) Expectation: Sideways If you are invested in growth stocks and small caps you are probably delighted, but it may be a bit confusing to look at the indexes. The growth and small cap segments did exceptionally well, but the major indexes show an indecisive day. The Nasdaq dipped mid-day but finished just above its open. The index closed up +0.28% on higher volume. The closing range of 77% is a positive, but the 7% body displays the indecisiveness. However, the advance/decline number of 2.23 shows a much more bullish picture, raising questions whether the broader market can continue to advance without the bigger players advancing. Another way to see the power of the small-caps is the Russell 2000 (RUT) index that soared above the other indexes with a +1.77% gain and a fat green candle with no lower wick and a tiny upper wick. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had smaller gains than the Nasdaq, all show indecisive candles. Energy (XLE +3.49%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) were the top sectors of the day. Communications (XLC -1.61%) and Health Services (XLV -1.09%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 13, 2021 Facts: +0.43%, Volume lower, Closing range: 65%, Body: 34% Good: Never revisited morning low, close in upper half of candle Bad: Nothing, just not exciting Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Medium to small body with longer upper wick than lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.85, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.04%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (+1.77%), VIX (-3.11%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.95%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.37%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.86%) and Materials (XLB -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways It was not a very exciting session for the Nasdaq today, but there were certainly pockets of excitement in parts of the market. The brief climb in the morning for Nasdaq turned to a sideways movement for the rest of the day. The good news is that the index never went back down towards the morning low. However, the gains for mega-caps and some growth stocks were not broadly shared across the market, keeping the index from closing closer to the intraday highs. The index closed with a +0.43% gain on lower volume. The closing range was 65% with a green body covering 34% of the candle. More stocks declined than advanced on the Nasdaq. Another way to see the influence of the mega caps today is to look at the cap weighted QQQ (+0.68%) vs the equal weight QQQE (-0.01%). The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.23% while the Dow Jones Industrial lost (DJI) -0.10%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.75% as money rotated into larger cap stocks today. Utilities (XLU +1.95%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.37%) were the top sectors. Often these sectors are at the top when investors get a bit nervous, but don't want to exit the equities market. The worst performing sectors were Industrials ( XLI -0.86%) and Materials ( XLB -1.02%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 14, 2021 Facts: -0.12%, Volume lower, Closing range: 12%, Body: 51% Good: New all-time high, higher low Bad: Closing range, sell-off to close after morning all-time high Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick red body in lower half of the candle, longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.50, five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.38%), DJI (-0.22%), RUT (+2.05%), VIX (+4.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.96%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.62%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.64%) and Technology (XLK -0.88%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways Investors shook off bad employment news in the morning to drive indexes to all-time highs before an afternoon session of selling. There were plenty of gains across a breadth of stocks, but the losses in the mega-caps weighed down the major indexes. The exception was the small-cap Russell 2000 which gained +2.05% in a solidly upwards session. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.12% loss after setting a new all-time high. The closing range of 12% with a large 51% red body is sign of weakness, but volume was lower so would not count as a distribution day. The losses were focused in the larger caps which is why the overall index is down even though there were far more advancing stocks than declining stocks. As we did yesterday, you can also see the imbalance by looking at the QQQ which is down -0.53% while the equal weight QQQE is up +0.12%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.38% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) lost -0.22%. The VIX Volatility index rose +4.68%. Energy (XLE +2.96%) was the top sector after OPEC released their monthly report with a mix of messages around oil demand and shale output. Real Estate (XLRE +0.62%) was the second best sector. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.64%) and Technology (XLK -0.88%) were the worst performing sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 15, 2021 Facts: -0.87%, Volume lower, Closing range: 26%, Body: 53% Good: Held lows near 13,000 Bad: Bearish in early morning and afternoon selling, low closing range, thick red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body, equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.45, two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-1.49%), VIX (+4.69%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.54%) and Utilities (XLU +0.98%) were top. Energy (XLE -3.89%) and Financials (XLF -1.65%) were bottom Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market took a step back at the end of a week, after moving sideways most of the week. It wasn't a huge move downward, but was certainly a bearish looking day across indexes and market indicators. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.87% loss on lower volume. The closing range was 26% and a thick red body of 53% that sits in the middle of the candle. The short upper and lower wicks show some effort by the bulls to buy up dips and move the market upwards. But with two declining stocks for every advancing stock, the result is a bearish candle to end the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.72% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.30%. The Dow Jones gains were primarily from a few mega-cap stocks that had positive gains and are heavily weighted within the index. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.49%. The VIX Volatility index rose +4.69%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.54%) and Utilities (XLU +0.98%) were top, two sectors used as defensive strategies for investors. Energy (XLE -3.89%) and Financials (XLF -1.65%) were bottom after leading much of the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) This was a good week to pause and realize the benefit of why I spend this time on the weekend to walk back thru the week and look at the bigger picture. The week was a mix of ups and downs depending on what types of investments are the focus in your portfolio. Week over week, the Nasdaq lost -1.54% with a closing range of 18% and a negative body of 18.6%. Those are not great stats. However, when you look at the week as a whole, there are a variety of positive signs both in the charts as well as the market indicators. The first four days of the week trend upward and set a new all-time high on Thursday. The high of the week is higher than last week's high and the low of the week is higher than last week's low. Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) led the sectors for most of the week. These are two sectors that are signals of economic recovery. So what happened on Friday? There were several catalysts to the end of the week sell-off. Some of it had to do with sector rotation. First, the SEC announced an investigation into Exxon Mobil (XOM) which weighted down the Energy sector. Exxon Mobil makes up 23% of the XLE ETF that I use to track the sector, and as people reduce their exposure to the sector it will impact many of the stocks in that sector. It didn't help that Tesla (TSLA) caused a sell-off of solar energy stocks after they announced they'll produce their own inverter for customers. It was a similar story for Financials. Before market open, Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) released earnings announcements that showed they beat earnings expectations but fell short on revenue. Investors were not pleased with the revenue and reduced their exposure to the Financials sector. The third catalyst was investor sentiment heading into a three-day weekend that precedes what could be a tumultuous week for the US. There are a few places you can see that sentiment displayed. For sectors, Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE) were gaining on other sectors throughout the week and outperformed on Friday. These sectors are defensive plays. US02Y and US05Y treasury bond yields, as well as longer term bond yields, all dropped for the week as investors moved to the safe haven investments. Friday was also an expiration day for option contracts. With the put/call ratio being quite low (many more calls than puts) over the past several weeks, and many of the large mega-caps moving sideways, it's very possible that a high number of call contracts expired without meeting the strike price. Market makers may sell the underlying stocks to keep prices lower than the strike and also reduce exposure to the a stock they no longer need to cover for worthless contracts. All of that to say (as much to myself as to the reader), don't worry about Friday's minor pullback, even if it hit some of your positions more than the market dip. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continued its leadership among the indexes with a +1.51% gain for the week. The S&P 500 lost -1.48% while the Dow Jones Industrial average lost -0.57% for the week. You can see the bearish end to the week in the weekly chart with the low closing range and long upper-wick formed after selling from Thursday's high. You can also see that we have a higher high and a higher low than the previous week. That's an uptrend. Looking at the volume is another key characteristic. Note that bullish green bars have higher volume than bearish red bars. Even at the daily level, this past week had higher volume on bullish days than on bearish days. The sectors had a wild race this week with the backdrop of a up and down market with several rotations between small caps, mid caps and large caps. Energy ( XLE ) would ultimately be the winner, supported by production cuts in Saudi Arabia, higher than expected demand for oil , and some positive news from OPEC. There was a significant pullback on Friday after SEC announced an investigation into Exxon Mobile ( XOM ) which makes up 23% of the XLE ETF . Financials ( XLF ) led must of the week as investors expect higher treasury yields boost performance for big banks. That turned upside down on Friday when Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo ( WFC ) disappointed on revenue despite beating expectations on earnings . It was Real Estate ( XLRE ) and Utilities ( XLU ) that started to climb on Tuesday and were top performers on Friday. Those two sectors are defensive plays for equity investors. Both are expected to suffer less from market pullbacks. Materials ( XLB ) and Industrials ( XLI ) were also doing well earlier in the week, but pulled back on Friday. It could be that the nearly $2 trillion of stimulus promised by President-elect Biden is seen as a delay to the expected investments in infrastructure. Just a theory. Technology ( XLK ) and Communications ( XLC ) were at the bottom. The big tech mega-caps went up and down in price all week as money moved in and out of the segment. Communications, which includes companies like Facebook ( FB ) and Twitter ( TWTR ) suffered the most as investors fear negative impact of recent actions related to Donald Trump. US Treasury Bond yields dropped for the week as investors moved into the instrument. The purchasing could be a combination of reaction to the Fed continuing bond buying. It can also be due to the sharp increase in value of the US Dollar after hitting recent lows last week. And some of it could be as a viable safe haven from volatility in the stock market. Prices for high yield corporate bonds (HYG) declined while investment grade (LQD) corporate bonds increased. In addition to the increased prices of short term treasury bonds (IEI), it signals investors moving to less riskier assets. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.70% for the week. The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.657. The is a much better number than the previous week which was showing too much optimism. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. Silver (SILVER) was down -2.65% and Gold (GOLD) was down -1.13%. Crude Oil futures were up +0.69%. Timber (WOOD) was down -3.01%. Copper (COPPER!1) dropped -2.76% while Aluminum (ALI1!) was down -2.42%. A question for me all week has been will the big tech mega-caps continue to weigh on the indexes, or will they start to participate in the market rally that's been ongoing for the past 10-11 weeks. And on the flip side, can the rally continue without them. Looking at the Relative Candle indicator at the bottom of each chart, you can see they have lagged behind the Nasdaq (Alphabet had several weeks of outperforming). Each of the mega-caps has been forming a consolidation pattern where lows are getting closer to highs while volume is contracting. That’s a classic pattern of reduction in sellers as buyers take the opportunity to increase positions, holding prices up. Earnings dates approach for these giants later in January. MSFT on 1/26, AAPL on 1/27, AMZN on 1/30 and GOOGL on 2/2. Those dates could be pivotal for the mega-caps to get back in the game. Or they could be a breakdown that pulls the indexes with them. The above charts show an important pivot that occurred the week of August 3, 2020. The top chart shows the performance of Value stocks in the S&P 500 vs the rest of S&P 500 stocks. You can see that value stocks have underperformed since 2008, but even more so in 2020 prior to August 3. In the bottom chart, you see the QQQ ETF which is based on the Nasdaq 100, weighted on market cap (more representation for larger cap companies) and the QQQE ETF which is equal weighted across the Nasdaq 100. This shows the rotation of investment from larger caps to a more broad investment across the market which has driven recent gains. Not included here, but you can do a similar comparison of the Russell 2000 (RUT) small cap vs the S&P 500 and see the same pivot. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. day. Next week will bring the inauguration of President-elect Biden. The transition on Wednesday will lead to several executive decisions being made over the next week. Those decisions will impact sectors such as Energy, Industrials, Materials and Technology. Some to the positive, some to the negative. Wednesday will also bring updates on Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday will include Fed Manufacturing data, Employment Data and December data for Building Permits and Housing Starts. On Friday, we'll have more updates on Manufacturing activity, Services activity, and Existing Homes Sales. Earnings activity will pick up next week and continue for the next several weeks. There will be more earnings announcements from big banks, including Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS) on Tuesday before market open. Netflix (NFLX) will announce earnings after market close on Tuesday. Procter & Gamble (PG), United Health (UNH) and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Wednesday. Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM) and Citrix Systems (CTXS) kick-off big tech stock earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side A higher high and a higher low. The index continues to move in an upward trend despite a pause this week with a slight pullback on Friday. The uptrend continues despite turmoil in politics and the worsening pandemic. The fed has continued its policy of not raising interest rates and continuing to buy back bonds. This is keeping liquidity in the markets while further stimulus will add to economic activity. Many analysts are questioning whether further stimulus is even needed as the economy seems to be getting back on track. Wednesday will mark the new administration which will bring immediate actions to further support economic recovery. Those will range from increased focus on ending the pandemic as well as stimulus to small businesses and individuals. Although the big mega-caps have not participated in the rally, and in some cases weighed down the index, they still have plenty of support and could break out of consolidation patterns at any moment. So the markets continue to rise. The index has closed above the 21d EMA for 50 consecutive days. That's 11 weeks of rally, that hasn't yet shown signs of backing down. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Investors are clearly worried about what is to come in the near future. The defensive plays in Utilities and Real Estate as well as the move from risky investments to safer Treasury Bonds and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds is a clear sign of that nervousness. It may not take much for investors to go further and begin selling off equities in favor of bonds or commodities. The implementation of Biden's policies in the coming weeks can have both positive and negative impacts. Energy that has been leading the sectors for so many weeks is likely to be impacted, on top of the Exxon Mobil investigation launched last week. At the same time, policies that require the support of congress may be delayed due to the impeachment trial that will start this week. Those may include delays to further stimulus, infrastructure projects and programs to reduce unemployment. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: 13,000 is a support area. The index closed a hair below that point on Friday. Look for it to move above and stay above this area next week. The high of Thursday at 13,220.16. Can the index continue to make newer highs each week? The index is pausing about every 300-400 points, so expect some resistance around 13,350 - 13,400 area. Reach 13,400 would put the index back in the middle of a regression trend from the 10/30 bottom. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: The low of last week is 12,949.76. Stay above that line to set a higher low next week. 12,860.31 is the 21d EMA. The index stayed clear of the line this past week, even with the dip on Friday. 12,550 is an area of support. 12,425.34 is the 50d moving average. The 50d moving average is key support line that has not been tested since 11/4. The index is closer to the line after this past weeks pause, which is a good gap to close, but not dip below the line. The support area of 12,250 is the next area. It is nearly 6% below Friday's close and would be a signal of correction if we reached that area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Wednesday's inauguration will hopefully end some of the turmoil in the markets that we've experienced over the last few months. It doesn't guarantee that prices move up, but at least there might be a reduction in the number of surprises that have pivoted investors in various directions since early November. For now, we are still in an uptrend. There are positive signs that the rally will continue. Follow price. Have a plan for all the stocks in your portfolio depending on your investment style and risk tolerance. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/15Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (53d), 1/11 (5d) and today 1/15 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 15, 2021 Facts: -0.87%, Volume lower, Closing range: 26%, Body: 53% Good: Held lows near 13,000 Bad: Bearish in early morning and afternoon selling, low closing range, thick red body Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body, equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.45, two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.57%), RUT (-1.49%), VIX (+4.69%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.54%) and Utilities (XLU +0.98%) were top. Energy (XLE -3.89%) and Financials (XLF -1.65%) were bottom Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market took a step back at the end of a week, after moving sideways most of the week. It wasn't a huge move downward, but was certainly a bearish looking day across indexes and market indicators. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.87% loss on lower volume. The closing range was 26% and a thick red body of 53% that sits in the middle of the candle. The short upper and lower wicks show some effort by the bulls to buy up dips and move the market upwards. But with two declining stocks for every advancing stock, the result is a bearish candle to end the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.72% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained -0.57%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.49%. The VIX Volatility index rose +4.69%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.54%) and Utilities (XLU +0.98%) were top, two sectors used as defensive strategies for investors. Energy (XLE -3.89%) and Financials (XLF -1.65%) were bottom after leading much of the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose for the day and is trending up since the beginning of the year. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) and 2y (US02Y) bond yields all declined for the day. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices also declined for the day, but remains near recent highs. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!), and Aluminum (ALI1!) all declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio took a big dip to 0.647, an extreme level of optimism for investors. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps lost for the day and are trading below their 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (AMZN) are also below their 50d MA. Only Apple (APPL) remains above its 50d MA. The declining days for these stocks are on higher volume than the advancing stocks. Home Depot (HD), Facebook (FB) and Merck (MRK) were mega-caps that had good advances today. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and ASML Holdings (ASML) were among the biggest losers. Not many growth stocks advanced today. SNAP (SNAP) rose +2.61% as part of an upside reversal among communication sector stocks. Solar Edge (SEDG) dropped around -16%, along with other solar energy stocks after Tesla (TSLA) announced it will sell its own inverter. JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) all were down for the day after earnings results that beat on earnings. Citigroup and Wells Fargo beat earnings, but disappointed on revenue, raising concerns among investors for the Financial sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. day. There is not much economic news scheduled for Tuesday. Several more financial institutions, including Bank of America (BAC) will announce earnings on Tuesday morning. Netflix (NFLX) will announce earnings after market close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long trend line from the 10/30 bottom point to a +2.80% gain. The five day trend line points to a gain of +1.55%. The one-day trend line points to a sideways move. If there is further downside, 13,000 seems to be holding up well for the index. The 21d EMA is nearly 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's a further downside move. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The week ended with a change of character in the market. Although the losses in the major indexes were not substantial, the underlying characteristics changed more significantly, requiring a further look. After leading the sector list the whole week, Energy and Financials sold off today. Defensive plays of Real Estate and Utilities took the top of the sector list. Looking at the cause of the sector rotations there are a few things to consider. Energy (XLE)took a hit as the SEC announced an investigation into Exxon Mobil (XOM) asset valuations. Exxon makes up 23% of the XLE ETF I use to track the sector. Renewable Energy stocks also sold off today after Tesla announced a new invertor. Financials (XLF) dipped after Citigroup and Wells Fargo disappointed investors on revenue. I think this will be temporary as the higher treasury bond yields will eventually help revenues of these banks that base interest rates on those yields. Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE) are bought up heading into a three-day weekend which leads to a potentially volatile week as tensions in US politics are at extreme highs. Small-caps remain strong on a weekly basis. The four biggest mega-caps are not doing well, but they are all still within a sideways volatility contraction pattern that started in September for Microsoft and Amazon, November for Alphabet. Apple is pausing in an uptrend and support has not broken down. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Another short term hedge opportunity #stocks After the huge run in the Russell I am using the index futures to hedge against long equity exposure in the portfolio. I am not bearish on the market on an intermediate term (weekly) basis but in the short term I think its a prudent time to protect against any potential volatility spike or profit taking in the market especially going into a long weekend. My stop will be above yesterdays high and if the hedge works, price should be heading back into the range (rectangle) from last week
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by IngenuityTrading
Daily Market Update for 1/14Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (52d), 1/8 (5d) and today 1/14 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 14, 2021 Facts: -0.12%, Volume lower, Closing range: 12%, Body: 51% Good: New all-time high, higher low Bad: Closing range, sell-off to close after morning all-time high Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick red body in lower half of the candle, longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.50, five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.38%), DJI (-0.22%), RUT (+2.05%), VIX (+4.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.96%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.62%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.64%) and Technology (XLK -0.88%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors shook off bad employment news in the morning to drive indexes to all-time highs before an afternoon session of selling. There were plenty of gains across a breadth of stocks, but the losses in the mega-caps weighed down the major indexes. The exception was the small-cap Russell 2000 which gained +2.05% in a solidly upwards session. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.12% loss after setting a new all-time high. The closing range of 12% with a large 51% red body is sign of weakness, but volume was lower so would not count as a distribution day. The losses were focused in the larger caps which is why the overall index is down even though there were far more advancing stocks than declining stocks. As we did yesterday, you can also see the imbalance by looking at the QQQ which is down -0.53% while the equal weight QQQE is up +0.12%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.38% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) lost -0.22%. The VIX Volatility index rose +4.68%. Energy (XLE +2.96%) was the top sector after OPEC released their monthly report with a mix of messages around oil demand and shale output. Real Estate (XLRE +0.62%) was the second best sector. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.64%) and Technology (XLK -0.88%) were the worst performing sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) dropped for the day. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) and 2y (US02Y) bond yields all rose for the day as investors expect more stimulus from President-elect Biden. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices remained about even. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both gained today and seem to have found an area of support. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures advanced. Timber (WOOD) and Copper (COPPER1!) gained while and Aluminum (ALI1!) all declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio took a big dip to 0.474, an extreme level of optimism for investors. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the greed side, but still within reasonable range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps lost for the day. They have been going back and forth between gains and losses the past several days. Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) area all trading at or below their 50d MA and 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) is trading just below the 21d EMA. The question remains on whether the mega-caps will join the market rally on new stimulus, or will they continue to weigh down the major indexes. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) gained 6.06% on strong earnings and the increasing demand coming from the automobile industry. ASML Holding (ASML), Intel (INTC) and Exxon Mobil (XON) were other big mega-cap gainers for the day. Mastercard (M) and Visa (V) were at the bottom of the list losing -5.60% and -3.58% respectively. Beyond Meat (BYND) was a top growth stock for the day, gaining 13.66%. Fiverr (FVRR), FUTU (FUTU) and SUMO Logic (SUMO) were other big gainers for the day. Twitter (TWTR), SNAP (SNAP) and PINS (PINS) joined other communications sector stocks with losses. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) joined the short-squeeze mania with a +18.77% gain while Gamespot (GME) continued a second day of short-squeeze gains with a 27.10% gain. That's a 100% gain in two days for the brick-and-mortar game store. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Producer Price Index data and Retail Sales data will be release before market open on Wednesday. Industrial Production numbers will add to data highlighting current economic activity. Consumer Sentiment numbers for January will be release just after the market opens. JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and PNC Financial Services (PNC) will report earnings before market opens on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long trend line from the 10/30 bottom point to a +1.23% gain. The five day trend line points to a more modest gain of +0.28%. The one-day trend line points to a -0.36% loss. If there is further downside, 13,000 seems to be holding up well for the index. The 21d EMA is nearly 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's a further downside move. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The last few days makes it seem like investors don't know what they want. Tuesday we saw rotation out of mega-caps. Yesterday, we saw rotation into mega-caps. And today we see rotation out again. Among the rotations, Energy and Financials continue to lead the sector list for the week while Communications has been at the bottom. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/13Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (51d), 1/7 (5d) and today 1/13 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 13, 2021 Facts: +0.43%, Volume lower, Closing range: 65%, Body: 34% Good: Never revisited morning low, close in upper half of candle Bad: Nothing, just not exciting Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Medium to small body with longer upper wick than lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.85, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.04%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (+1.77%), VIX (-3.11%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.95%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.37%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.86%) and Materials (XLB -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was not a very exciting session for the Nasdaq today, but there were certainly pockets of excitement in parts of the market. The brief climb in the morning for Nasdaq turned to a sideways movement for the rest of the day. The good news is that the index never went back down towards the morning low. However, the gains for mega-caps and some growth stocks were not broadly shared across the market, keeping the index from closing closer to the intraday highs. The index closed with a +0.43% gain on lower volume. The closing range was 65% with a green body covering 34% of the candle. More stocks declined than advanced on the Nasdaq. Another way to see the influence of the mega caps today is to look at the cap weighted QQQ (+0.68%) vs the equal weight QQQE (-0.01%). The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.23% while the Dow Jones Industrial lost (DJI) -0.10%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.75% as money rotated into larger cap stocks today. Utilities (XLU +1.95%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.37%) were the top sectors. Often these sectors are at the top when investors get a bit nervous, but don't want to exit the equities market. The worst performing sectors were Utilities (XLU +1.95%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.37%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose for the day. Likewise, US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) bond yields continued to pull back from recent gains. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices gained for a second day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both dropped today, but have seemed to hit a support area after the declines last week. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) pulled back just a bit. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) all declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose considerably to 0.738, a move toward bearish sentiment. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps gained for the day. Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) area all trading at or below their 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) is trading above both the key moving averages that I track which are 21d EMA and 50d MA. In recent memory, having the mega-caps participate in a sustained rally was critical. Bulls will be looking for these four to continue gains. Intel (INTC) topped the mega-cap high performers after announcing a new CEO. Alibaba (BABA), PayPal (PYPL) and Netflix (NFLX) round out the top four performing mega-caps for the day. The majority of mega-caps gained for the day. Many mid-cap Growth stocks did well. Peloton (PTON) gained +7.29% on analyst upgrades. Chewy (CHWY) gained +7.98%. Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen was among three activist investors added to Gamestop (GME) which gained 57.39% in a massive short-squeeze fueled by the news. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Before market opens on Thursday, Export/Import price index data for December will be released. Initial Jobless Claims will also be announced with the expectation that it's slightly lower than previous weeks. In the early afternoon, Jerome Powell will speak. His comments can impact Treasury Bonds and the value of the US Dollar. In turn, those impacts will be translated into equity market moves. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Blackrock (BLK) will announce earnings before market opens. All three will be initial looks into performance of influential stocks in their respective industry groups. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long trend line from the 10/30 bottom point to a +0.89% gain. The five day trend line points to a +0.09% gain, while the one-day trend is in-between the other two pointing to a +0.60% gain. On the downside, 13,000 seems to be holding up well for the index. The 21d EMA is nearly 2.5% below the index which should be an area of support if there's a further downside move. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A bit of rotation and a bit of nervousness was mixed into today's session. The movement back into mega-caps and mid-cap growth stocks was apparent. But nervousness showed itself with Utilities and Real Estate topping the sector list. Corporate bonds were bought on confidence while Treasury bonds were bought on caution. The Put/Call ratio rose above 0.700 for the first time since early December. Some caution can be constructive for building a base of support in the market. It does not signal a need to be overly defensive, but certainly offers a chance to double check your plan for multiple possibilities as we head into the last two days of the trading week. Expect some more caution heading into the three-day weekend before inauguration day. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/12Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (50d), 1/6 (5d) and today 1/12 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 12, 2021 Facts: +0.28%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 7% Good: Close in upper side of range, dipped just briefly below 13,000 Bad: Thin body, second indecisive day, LH/LL Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: An indecisive candle with close just above open, long lower shadow Advance/Decline: 2.23, more than two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.04%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (+1.77%), VIX (-3.11%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.49%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.61%) and Health Services (XLV -1.09%) Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview If you are invested in growth stocks and small caps you are probably delighted, but it may be a bit confusing to look at the indexes. The growth and small cap segments did exceptionally well, but the major indexes show an indecisive day. The Nasdaq dipped mid-day but finished just above its open. The index closed up +0.28% on higher volume. The closing range of 77% is a positive, but the 7% body displays the indecisiveness. However, the advance/decline number of 2.23 shows a much more bullish picture, raising questions whether the broader market can continue to advance without the bigger players advancing. Another way to see the power of the small-caps is the Russell 2000 (RUT) index that soared above the other indexes with a +1.77% gain and a fat green candle with no lower wick and a tiny upper wick. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had smaller gains than the Nasdaq, all show indecisive candles. Energy (XLE +3.49%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) were the top sectors of the day. Communications (XLC -1.61%) and Health Services (XLV -1.09%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined for the day after several days of gains. Likewise, US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) bond yields pulled back from recent gains. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices gained slightly for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both gained today, after their declines since the start of the new year. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced for another day. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) all advanced for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.542 as investor optimism remains very bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four biggest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) advanced for the day, but still set a lower high and a lower low. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) all declined. Only Apple remains above the 50d MA while the others are below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA. The big question for the big mega-caps is can the broader market rally without them. Tesla (TSLA) regained some of the previous day's losses. Intel (INTC), Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Home Depot (HD) round out the top four performing mega-caps. But overall, six of the largest 10 mega-caps delivered losses for the day. Very different than the broader market. Growth stocks were very strong for the day. Top stocks included FUTU Holdings (FUTU +15.27%), Etsy (ETSY +12.08%), Fiverr (FVRR +9.33%) and SUMO Logic (SUMO +9.31%). Twitter (TWTR -2.24%) and Facebook (FB -2.24%) continue to suffer from the past week's events. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer price index data will be released tomorrow, giving a view on inflation. After today's remarks from Esther George on the possibility of surprise inflation, investors will be watching these numbers closely. Crude Oil inventories will also be updated tomorrow after market open. No notable earnings reports for this update are scheduled for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend and long trend line from the 10/30 bottom point to a +1.06% gain. The one-day trend points to a -0.17% loss. The 21d EMA is about 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's further downside. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Today the small-caps and growth stocks shined. The major indexes didn't show it as large-cap and mega-caps held back the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The question is whether the Russell 2000 and small-caps can continue to rally without the big players advancing too. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/11Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (49d), 1/5 (5d) and today 1/11 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 11, 2021 Facts: -1.25%, Volume lower, Closing range: 27%, Body: 9% Good: Lower volume, stayed above 13k Bad: Morning gains turn to a new intraday low before close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Bearish inside day, thing body at bottom of candle Advance/Decline: 0.83, more declining than advancing Indexes: SPX (-0.66%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-0.03%), VIX (+11.69%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Health Services (XLV +0.47%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.87%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was tough to have any expectation coming into today's trading session. Nervousness about what will happen in DC on top of continuing pandemic pressures over the weekend resulted in a low start to the day. Confidence grew as buyers came in but ultimately the bears ruled the day, bringing the index back down to a new intraday low before close. The index closed with a -1.25% loss on lower volume. The bearish day resulted in a 27% closing range where the close is just under the open. The 9% body and long upper wick show the morning buying turning to afternoon selling. More stocks declined than advanced. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had similar patterns, but closed the day with smaller losses. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also had a loss but with a more bullish look and the smallest loss of the four indexes. The VIX volatility Index rose +11.69%. Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Health Services (XLV +0.47%) were the top sectors for the day. Crude Oil prices continuing to rise helped Energy take the top spot after a morning dip. Financials (XLF +0.32%) was the only other sector to gain for the day. Communications (XLC -1.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.87%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues to gain at the beginning of this new year. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y), and 2y (US02Y) bond yields all gained for the day. Spread on the 10y and 2y is widening while the spread on the 30y and 10y is tightening. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices dropped for the day, signaling some nervousness from investors. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both continue to drop. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced for another day. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) all dropped for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.603 as investor optimism remains very bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps all declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) remain above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) closed below the 21d EMA while Amazon (AMZN) is below both lines. The relative strength of these big mega-caps compared to the market is at low levels. The has been a bearish sign in the past, but may just be representative of the focus on small caps in recent months. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list, giving a pop for semiconductor stocks. The majority of mega-caps were down for the day. Growth stocks had a mix of results. Grow Generation (GRWG) and Lemonade (LMND) led with 13.77% and 14.01% gains respectively. Chinese EV manufacturer NIO (NIO) gained after releasing their new car model over the weekend. Tesla (TSLA) declined for the first time in 12 sessions, losing -7.82%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Economic news tomorrow will include the EIA Short-Term Energy outlook before market open. Several FOMC members will make comments throughout the day. Lots of attention will be paid to the JOLTs Job Openings number to understand how the labor market is doing. No notable earnings reports for this update are scheduled for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend points to a +1.95% gain. The long trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a gain of +1.15%. The one-day trend points to a -0.22% loss. The 21d EMA is about 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's further downside. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It wasn't a particularly decisive day. The expectation from Friday's action was higher for today, so that expectation was broken and we need to watch closely over the next few days to see what the market wants to do. Investors remain positive on the possibility of more stimulus, resulting in the higher yields in treasury bonds. But the lowered prices on corporate bonds sends the opposite signal. Small caps continue to outperform heading into the new year. I'll continue to watch the mega-caps as their relative strength to the rest of the market continues to weaken. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week In Review - 1/4/2021 - 1/8/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 4, 2021 Lately things, they don't seem the same Facts: -1.47%, Volume higher, Closing range: 37%, Body: 63% Good: Held support around 12,550, some recovery off lows Bad: Thick red body, no upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bearish engulfing candle with thick body over long lower wick Expectation: Sideways or Lower It was not a great start to 2021 with the equity markets selling off significantly throughout the day after making morning highs. The Nasdaq nearly reach its all-time high before selling off sharply in the morning. Recovery in the afternoon was not nearly enough to be seen as a positive. The index closed down -1.45% with a closing range of 37% and a thick red body of 63%. The higher high and lower low than the previous day represents a bearish engulfing candle that can indicate bearish sentiment in the market. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 5, 2021 There must be some kind of way outta here Facts: +0.95%, Volume higher, Closing range: 94%, Body: 94% Good: Solid day of gains, no lower wick Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, bullish green body with no lower wick and tiny upper wick Expectation: Sideways or Higher The Nasdaq followed yesterday's bearish session with a bullish rebound today. There is still work to do to get back to all-time highs, but the gains were steady throughout the day as the index never revisited the morning low. The index closed the day with a +0.95% gain on higher volume, closing range of 94% and a thick green body of 94%. The lower wick doesn't exist and the upper wick is very tiny. More than two stocks advanced for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 6, 2021 Bold as Love Facts: -0.61%, Volume higher, Closing range: 35%, Body: 29% Good: Stayed above opening low, held support at around yesterday's low Bad: Sell-off in late afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Inverted hammer that signals buyers held support despite selling pressure Expectation: Sideways or Higher It was a wild day for the markets as unbelievable events unfolded in the US capitol. The Georgia run-off elections resulted in Democrats taking control of the Senate, realizing the blue wave that was original anticipated with the November elections. The Nasdaq shook off the initial rotation and rose to gains by mid-afternoon, but would sell-off as rioters stormed the US Capitol in protest of election outcomes. The index closed -0.61% on higher volume with a closing range of 35% and a body of 29%. More stocks advanced than declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 7, 2021 Ain't no telling, baby When you will see me again, but I pray It will be tomorrow Facts: +2.56%, Volume lower, Closing range: 90%, Body: 90% Good: Everything, bullish candle following the inverted hammer Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No lower wick, very small upper wick, thick green body Expectation: Higher Finally, everything is finalized and seems we can put the tumultuous election behind us. On top of that, jobless claims data was better than expected and economic activity represented by the Purchasing Managers Index was very positive. The markets responded with a huge gain and new all-time highs among the indexes. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.56% on lower volume, and with a very bullish candle. The closing range of 90% was over a 90% body, resulting in zero lower wick as the index never revisited the low from open. There were nearly three advancing stocks for every declining stock. Over 300 Nasdaq stocks made new highs. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 8, 2021 Might even raise a little sand Facts: +1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 96%, Body: 24% Good: Bulls win the day, despite selling pressure Bad: Mid-day sell-off Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Smallish green body in upper part of candle, long lower wick Expectation: Higher It was a wild ride for traders today as a Democratic senator seemed to state he'd block new stimulus and then later say he's still considering his decision. That resulted in a mid-day sell-off and looked like the bears would win, but then the Nasdaq turned and closed at new all-time highs. The index closed the day with a +1.03% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 96% and 24% green body over a long lower wick represent the mid-day selling pressure that was eventually overcome by the bulls. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. 275 new highs is less than the previous day, but still a very large number. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The first week of 2021 for the markets was filled with twists and turns but ended with gains across all the major indexes. The Nasdaq ended the week with a +2.43% gain; not a bad start to the year. Volume was higher as investors came back from the holidays. The index has a weekly closing range of 99% with a green body of 36.7% at the top of the candle. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was back on top of the major indexes, gaining another +5.91% for the week. The S&P 500 gained +1.83% while the Dow Jones Industrial average gained +1.61%. The VIX closed down -5.23% after spiking at the beginning of the week. The week started on a bearish note as investors came back from the holidays fearing the worst for the pandemic. The UK had announced new lockdowns to control a more contagious mutant of the COVID-19 virus. The index dropped below the 21d EMA, a key indicator line that can show a break down in support. Things recovered in the afternoon, but not nearly enough to look bullish. The VIX volatility index spiked more than 20% before receding. Tuesday was a positive expectation breaker. There was positive news in the manufacturing purchase data that shows economic activity is picking up. The indexes had bullish inside days. Wednesday was the pivotal day of the week. The market aside, the day will be written into American history. Although the day was a loss for markets, it would prove pivotal to the upside for the week. We can hope it will also be pivotal to the upside for United States democracy, and most importantly it's citizens. For the Nasdaq, the day would start with selling as the Georgia run-off elections resulted in Democrats taking control of the senate and a blue wave government was now confirmed. However, investors quickly shrugged off the news and began to buy back discounted tech stocks. That would halt in the afternoon when a siege on the US Capitol hit the news. As rioters broke thru the capitol doors, causing evacuations of politicians and their staff, markets quickly began selling. It really looked dismal for stocks, but it was worth taking a step back. It could have been a lot worse, and what you see in the candle is an inverted hammer. An inverted hammer signals the selling pressure, but that buyers came in to hold the index above the day's lows. That candle is a signal, but only confirmed if the following days were bullish. And Thursday and Friday brought us the confirmation. Thursday would be a big day for markets. Brave members of the US Congress, on both sides of the aisle, reconvened late Wednesday and worked through the night to count and confirm the electoral votes. Friday showed there was still a bit of nervousness when one Democratic senator seemed to oppose the stimulus, causing stocks to briefly sell off. However, he corrected his stance later in the day and markets ended the week at new all-time highs. The weekly chart shows the continued strong momentum in the Nasdaq, despite the pressures on big tech that may come from a Democratic controlled government. The average closing range over the past 10 weeks is 75% as the index has consistently either a higher high or a higher low, both positive signs of support and growth. Volume on positive weeks is much higher than volume on negative weeks. Accumulation continues to outweigh distribution. Energy ( XLE ) finds itself back at the top of the sector list for the first week of 2021. It's not something you might expect as the blue wave hit US politics. The democratic clean energy platform doesn't bode well for traditional energy stocks. However, crude oil is over $50 a barrel for the first time since April after Saudi Arabia surprisingly cut output. The blue wave did have some expected sector impact this week. After the Georgia run-off results showed Democrats would take control of the senate, US Treasury Bond yields took off as investors expect more stimulus that would further impact the US Dollar . That caused Financials ( XLF ), especially big banks, to have big gains on Wednesday and Thursday. Materials ( XLB ) benefited from the blue wave news, as we can expect big investments in US infrastructure with the new administration. Industrials ( XLI ) also had a boost on Wednesday, with some benefit from infrastructure spend, but also several segments like airlines likely to benefit from further stimulus. However, Industrials did not continue the rise and ended the week behind the S&P 500 . Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) got a boost on Friday, perhaps from higher than expected Consumer credit numbers on top of the promise of new stimulus. Quite a few people had a good Christmas it seems. At the bottom of the list is Real Estate ( XLRE ) which is likely to suffer in the bottom line from the higher interest rates. Technology ( XLK ) had the expected negative reaction to the blue wave on Wednesday but regained from losses on Thursday and Friday to end the week just behind Industrials . Also notable is Utilities ( XLU ) which lost for the week, but had gains on Friday as a defensive move heading into a likely emotion filled weekend for the United States. US Treasury Bond Yields rose significantly for the week as investors reacted to the Democrats winning the senate. Democrats are likely to pass much more stimulus which will further drive investors out of bonds and into other asset classes. The spread between US 10y and US 2y bond yields widened. This had a positive impact on the Financials sector as big banks will benefit from the higher interest rates driven by treasury bond yields. Prices for corporate bonds (HYG) rose while the prices for short-term treasury bonds (IEI) dropped. This represents investors' confidence in corporations ability to pay back debt. That is important since many companies incurred larger than normal debt to weather the pandemic. If companies begin to default on loans, you can bet these bonds will sell-off before we know there's a problem. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.19% for the week. The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.563. That is an overly bullish level, but not as low as we've seen preceding recent pullbacks in the market. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. Silver (SILVER) was down -3.54% and Gold (GOLD) was down -2.61% as investors moved from the safe-haven back into assets that will benefit from new stimulus. Crude Oil futures was up +7.80% after the surprise cut back in output from Saudi Arabia. Timber (WOOD) was up +3.97%. Copper (COPPER!1) rose +4.59% while Aluminum (ALI1!) rose +1.62%. These increases align with expectations that Democrats will increase spend on infrastructure. It's consistent also with the gains in the Materials and Industrials sectors. It's important to keep an eye on the four biggest mega-caps and how they react to market changes. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) all ended the week with losses, but are trading above the 10w moving average lines. Microsoft and Amazon briefly dipped below the line, but found support and closed the week above. Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the week with gains. It also dropped below the 10w MA line, but found support. The cannabis industry is certain to benefit from legislature that will more easily pass through congress and be signed by the new administration. Stocks (including the MJ ETF) gapped up on Wednesday. Clean Energy, Electric Vehicles, Financials and Materials were among other stocks that also soared on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Next week will bring several economic updates. JOLT Job Openings (Nov) on Tuesday and updates on Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday will provide more insight into the jobs market. Consumer price index data and Producer price index data will show any impact the weakened US Dollar is having on inflation. Friday will also bring an update on core retail sales data for December. Traders will closely listen to Jerome Powell who is scheduled to speak on Thursday at 12:30p. The frequency and relative importance of earnings reports will start to pick up next week. Carnival Corp (CCL) and Delta Airlines (DAL) will be among companies reporting who were impacted by the pandemic. Blackrock (BLK), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) will report later in the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side This week tested the market. We've been watching for a catalyst for the market to lose support and drop below key support areas. The riots on the US capitol could have been that catalyst. But it wasn't. Even as seller pressure increased on Wednesday, buyers came in and showed this market is not yet ready to become bearish. The inverted hammer on Wednesday was an indicator of support holding and was confirmed with the bullish days on Thursday and Friday. 30y and 10y US Treasury Bond yields rose as investors sold off the safe-haven instrument in favor of other asset classes. That was in anticipation of further stimulus coming from a Democratic controlled congress. That anticipation was confirmed when investors were briefly shaken on Friday by a Democratic senator stating he might not approve the stimulus, reversing some of the actions taken earlier in the week. The senator clarified the comment as he was still deciding and that brought investors back to equities. So the markets continue to rise. The index has closed above the 21d EMA for 45 days. That's 10 weeks of rally, that hasn't yet shown signs of backing down. Certainly there will be pullbacks like we saw on Monday, but we have to follow the market vs worry about an eminent crash that may be months away... -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side …or it could be tomorrow. Investor sentiment continues to remain overly bullish with NAAIM exposure index heading back to highs. The Put/Call ratio remains below 0.600 The CNN Fear & Greed index is rising again. All of that could be the kind of overly bullish sentiment that precedes a much more severe pullback. The pandemic continues to worsen even as vaccines are becoming more and more available around the world. New lockdowns seem to be popping up with frequency. But the biggest worry for the coming weeks is the transition of power between administrations. The riots at the US Capitol have seemed to only fuel more verbal attacks from the right and the left. If those turn into more than verbal attacks, it could be that start of a very dark time in US history. It seems ominous and unbelievable, but I think the point here is that investors will be on nerves and any hint of worsening conditions could be a catalyst. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: The high of Friday at 13.208.09. It's not far above the close, so I think what we want here is for the index to close above that high early in the week and then stay above that close. The index is pausing about every 300-400 points, so expect some resistance around 13,350 - 13,400 area. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: 12,733.04 is the 21d EMA. The index tested that line twice last week and was able to close above it each time. 12,550 had shown as a support area, helped by the 21d EMA. The low of last week is 12,543.24 and is just below the 12,550 support area. The support area of 12,250 is the next area. Hopefully, that area will hold the index above that price level. The 50d MA is at 12,222.76. That is ~7.4% below Thursday's close. The gap with the 50d MA continues to widen. November support area is at 12,000 and a round-number point. A drop to that area would be a certainly correction level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a rough week. Lots going on. The market survived it and that’s good news for investors. Looking forward, it will be good to remain cautious while not disengaging too much. More rally could be in front of us. With all the changes, take some time to evaluate your stocks. Look at weekly action vs daily action. Rank the stocks and determine where some additions and some trimming should be based on the changes this week. Most of all, keep in mind your risk plans and update stops as necessary. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/8Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (48d), 1/4 (5d) and today 1/8 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 8, 2021 Might even raise a little sand Facts: +1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 96%, Body: 24% Good: Bulls win the day, despite selling pressure Bad: Mid-day sell-off Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Smallish green body in upper part of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.11, about even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.55%), DJI (+0.18%), RUT (-0.99%), VIX (-3.62%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.06%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.08%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.24%) and Materials (XLB -0.48%) were the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a wild ride for traders today as a Democratic senator seemed to state he'd block new stimulus and then later say he's still considering his decision. That resulted in a mid-day sell-off and looked like the bears would win, but then the Nasdaq turned and closed at new all-time highs. The index closed the day with a +1.03% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 96% and 24% green body over a long lower wick represent the mid-day selling pressure that was eventually overcome by the bulls. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. 275 new highs is less than the previous day, but still a very large number. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had smaller gains of +0.55% and +0.18% respectively. The Russell 2000 (RUT) showed a bearish candle that tops out at the same high as yesterday, and closes for a loss of -0.99%. The VIX declined by -3.62%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.06%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.08%) were top sectors for the day. Industrials (XLI -0.24%) and Materials (XLB -0.48%) were the bottom. It's also worth noting Utilities (XLU +0.84%) near the top of the list, signaling some defensive plays in the mix. Also, the four losing sectors for the day, are the leaders for the week and it's likely those sectors just needed to cool off from their heated advances on Wednesday and Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced for a third day. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) had another day of big gains while the 2y (US02Y) bond yield remained flat. The yield spread for US10Y to US2Y widened again with the US10Y yield advancing over 22% for the week. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices increased while short term treasury bond (IEI) prices dropped. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both dropped -6.26% and -3.38% respectively. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) continues to advance to levels not seen since February 2020. Timber (WOOD) moved sideways after a few days of gains. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) retreated around -0.80% each. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.563 as investor optimism remains very bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps all advanced for the day. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) are trading above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) had closed above its 50d MA, but below its 21d EMA. Tesla (TSLA) tops the mega-cap charts with a +7.84% gain, continuing its spectacular rise. Alibaba (BABA), PayPal (PYPL) and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) are other top mega-caps for the day. Growth stocks did well. In addition to Tesla, FUTU Holdings (FUTU +12.36%) and NIO (NIO +8.55%) topped the list. Penn National Gaming (PENN +7.14%) and Draft Kings (DKNG +4.48%) also did very well. Twitter (TWTR -1.62%) continued a second day of losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The only scheduled big economic news for Monday is FOMC Member Bostic making remarks. However, it is expected that the House will bring new impeachment charges against the president. No notable earnings reports are scheduled for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a gain of +0.55%. The one-day trend points to a -0.56% loss. The five-day line points to a smaller loss of -0.30%. The index is well above the 21d EMA which has acted as support recently. That's -3.53% below the close. The index also held the 12,550 area this week. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I thought the turmoil was behind us once elections were resolved and the capitol clear of rioters. Thursday was super bullish and with stimulus on the way, the market could have nothing but strength. However, investors are still very sensitive to anything popping in the news, as we saw with the comments today from a Democratic senator possibly blocking the stimulus. Looking at the action mid-day, you might have wanted to panic sell, thinking this was the end of a rally. But that would have been quickly proven the wrong action. It's one of those days that reminds us to have a plan and stick to the plan, and don't give too much weight to broad reactions to media. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
6
Daily Market Update for 1/7Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (47d), 12/31 (5d) and today 1/7 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 7, 2021 Ain't no telling, baby When you will see me again, but I pray It will be tomorrow Facts: +2.56%, Volume lower, Closing range: 90%, Body: 90% Good: Everything, bullish candle following the inverted hammer Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No lower wick, very small upper wick, thick green body Advance/Decline: 2.89, Nearly three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.48%), DJI (+0.69%), RUT (+1.89%), VIX (-10.77%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.70%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.93%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) and Utilities (XLU -1.31%) were the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Finally, everything is finalized and seems we can put the tumultuous election behind us. On top of that, jobless claims data was better than expected and economic activity represented by the Purchasing Managers Index was very positive. The markets responded with a huge gain and new all-time highs among the indexes. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.56% on lower volume, and with a very bullish candle. The closing range of 90% was over a 90% body, resulting in zero lower wick as the index never revisited the low from open. There were nearly three advancing stocks for every declining stock. Over 300 Nasdaq stocks made new highs. The other major indexes also set new all-time highs with very bullish candles. All lows came within the highs of the previous day, so no gap ups to worry about. The VIX declined by -10.77%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced for a second day. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) had another day of big gains while the 2y (US02Y) bond yield stayed flat. The yield spread widened again. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices increased while short term treasury bond (IEI) prices dropped. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for a second day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures advanced to the highest since February 2020. Timber (WOOD) continued the breakout from a recent base. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) remained near flat. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.552 as investor optimism gets very bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps all advanced for the day. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) regained losses from the previous day. Amazon (AMZN) had gains early in the day, but then sold off to close below its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Microsoft closed below its 21d EMA. Nvidia (NVDA) is near the top of the mega-caps list, gaining +5.78% after being at the bottom yesterday. Tesla (TSLA) gained +7.94% while Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) gained +5.03%. PayPal (PYPL) also reversed losses with a +3.62% gain. Most growth stocks did very well for the day with NIO (NIO +7.49%), Cloudflare (NET +7.85%) and Peloton (7.12%) joining Tesla at the top of the list. Twitter (TWTR -1.75%) had losses, possibly due to the turmoil around Trump's twitter account (seen as a boost to twitter's traffic in recent years). Bed Bath & Beyond (BBY) missed quarterly revenue estimates and dropped 10%. They announced before market open. Semiconductor stock Micron Technology beating earnings and is up 1.45% in afterhours trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday will bring more updates on the labor market with Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate data being released before market open. Later in the morning FOMC member Clarida will speak. No notable earnings reports are scheduled for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day trend points to a +1.38% gain. The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a more modest gain of +0.41%. The five-day line points to a -0.61% loss. The index is well above the 21d EMA which has acted as support recently. That's -2.89% below the close. The index also held the 12,550 area this week. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market seems favorable to get past the volatility of the election drama, and that's understandable. Of course, there is probably some price discovery to happen across sectors as investors understand better the impact of a Democratic majority in Congress and a Democratic president in the White House. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 1/6Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (46d), 12/30 (5d) and today 1/6 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 6, 2021 Bold as Love Facts: -0.61%, Volume higher, Closing range: 35%, Body: 29% Good: Stayed above opening low, held support at around yesterday's low Bad: Sell-off in late afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Inverted hammer that signals buyers held support despite selling pressure Advance/Decline: 1.64, Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.57%), DJI (+1.44%), RUT (+3.98%), VIX (-1.07%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +4.42%) and Materials (XLB +4.09%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.48%) and Technology (XLK -1.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a wild day for the markets as unbelievable events unfolded in the US capitol. The Georgia run-off elections resulted in Democrats taking control of the Senate, realizing the blue wave that was original anticipated with the November elections. The Nasdaq shook off the initial rotation and rose to gains by mid-afternoon, but would sell-off as rioters stormed the US Capitol in protest of election outcomes. The index closed -0.61% on higher volume with a closing range of 35% and a body of 29%. More stocks advanced than declined. The other major indexes set new all-time highs before the afternoon sell-off. The rotation was moving investors back into Financials, Materials and Industrials as well as small-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 performed the best among the indexes, rising over 5% before settling back to just below 4% at close. The VIX declined by -1.07%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced for the day. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y)and 2y (US02Y) bond yields all gained for the day. The yield curves expanded significantly. Corporate Bonds (HYG) price declined but were outpaced by the decline in short term treasury bond (IEI) prices. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures advanced to the highest since February 2020. Timber (WOOD) broke out of a recent base. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.570. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps all declined sharply for the day as investors rotated away from big tech firms. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) all closed below their 21d EMA. Only Apple closed above its 30d MA. The financial mega-caps performed best for the day. Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) advanced 6.26% and 4.70% respectively. The anticipated stimulus from a blue wave government will raise yield prices, increasing interest rate income that benefits banks. Nvidia (NVDA) was among the big tech companies with a significant losses, dropping -5.90% for the day. Popular growth stocks were also impacted by the day's events. New energy stocks including Solar Edge (SEDG) did well. Gaming stocks Draft Kings and Penn National Gaming also closed the day with gains. Many other growth stocks closed with 5-6% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will bring an update on Initial Jobless Claims before market open. Later in the morning, an update on non-manufacturing PMI data will be released indicating economic activity in service sectors. Two FOMC board members will speak tomorrow. Several retail companies will release earnings tomorrow including Walgreen Boots Alliance (WBA), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and Helen of Troy (HELE). Micron Technology (MU) will be the first of large semiconductors to announce earnings this year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +2.37% gain. The one-day trend points to a +0.71% gain. The five-day line points to a -0.06% loss. The index held the 12,550 area this week. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a tough day. Not only was it tough as a trader, but it was tough to deal with what occurred in the US capitol. As a trader, give yourself time to reflect and observe and center yourself on your own trading system before making a plan for the rest of this week. The inverted hammer signals there was seller pressure in the afternoon, but buyers held support above the morning lows which was a positive sign heading into close. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 1/5Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (45d), 12/29 (5d) and today 1/5 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 5, 2021 There must be some kind of way outta here Facts: +0.95%, Volume higher, Closing range: 94%, Body: 94% Good: Solid day of gains, no lower wick Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, bullish green body with no lower wick and tiny upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.39, More than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.71%), DJI (+0.55%), RUT (+1.71%), VIX (-6.04%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +4.48%) and Materials (XLB +2.25%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.02%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.11%) were worst performing Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq followed yesterday's bearish session with a bullish rebound today. There is still work to do to get back to all-time highs, but the gains were steady throughout the day as the index never revisited the morning low. The index closed the day with a +0.95% gain on higher volume, closing range of 94% and a thick green body of 94%. The lower wick doesn't exist and the upper wick is very tiny. More than two stocks advanced for every declining stock. All major indexes had gains for the day. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 200 had similar bullish inside days. The VIX dropped back -6.04%, but still at an elevated level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined for another day as it sits within a support range from early 2018. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y)and 2y (US02Y) bond yields all gained for the day. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices stayed about the same while short term treasury bond (IEI) prices dropped. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both increased for a second day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures advanced. Timber (WOOD) is up but moving in a sideways trend. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.592. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps all advanced for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) closed above its 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL)closed below the 21d EMA but above the 50d MA. Alibaba (BABA) was one of the top mega-cap gainers with a 5.51% advance. Nvidia, Intel and PayPal were the other large mega-caps with top gains for the day. Visa (V) and Mastercard (M) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list with >1% losses. Many growth stocks advanced for the day with Chinese stocks FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and JD.Com (JD) topping the list at 19.76% and 10.62% gains respectively. Several others including FVRR, PENN and DKNG all had huge gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning, ADP Nonfarm Employment data for December will be released before market open. Additional pricing index data will be released just after open. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated at 10:30. Finally, the FOMC Meeting minutes from the December meeting will be released in the afternoon. No notable earnings announcements are scheduled for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +1.97% gain. The one-day trend points to a +0.66% gain. The five-day line points to a -0.99% loss. The index held the 12,550 area today. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The bullish reversal from yesterday's bearish day was a pleasant surprise today. Possibly buoyed by positive Manufacturing data that shows growth in economic activity. Additional data released tomorrow could strengthen that positive outlook. All eyes will be on the Senate race as Georgia is starting to count votes as I write this. The outcome could have an impact on how investors position themselves for the next year. With Biden in the Whitehouse, a Democratic controlled Senate would have a very different impact on the markets than a Republican controlled Senate. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/4Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (44d), 12/28 (5d) and today 1/4 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 4, 2021 Lately things, they don't seem the same Facts: -1.47%, Volume higher, Closing range: 37%, Body: 63% Good: Held support around 12,550, some recovery off lows Bad: Thick red body, no upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bearish engulfing candle with thick body over long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.84, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-1.48%), DJI (-1.25%), RUT (-1.47%), VIX (+18.55%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.16%) was the only gaining sector. Utilities (XLU -2.52%) and Real Estate (XLRE -3.23%) were worst performing Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was not a great start to 2021 with the equity markets selling off significantly throughout the day after making morning highs. The Nasdaq nearly reach its all-time high before selling off sharply in the morning. Recovery in the afternoon was not nearly enough to be seen as a positive. The index closed down -1.45% with a closing range of 37% and a thick red body of 63%. The higher high and lower low than the previous day represents a bearish engulfing candle that can indicate bearish sentiment in the market. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. All major indexes had similar bearish days. Each took a trip below the 21d EMA line but all were able to close above the key support line. Closing above the 21d EMA is a positive. However, the VIX spiked over 28% before settling down to an 18.55% gain for the day. That is the second such spike over 20% in the last 9 trading sessions. Those spikes are not a good sign for the markets health. The VIX closed at this same level on September 2nd, just before a big correction. It stayed around this level throughout September and October, before finally coming down in November and December. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined into the new year. US Treasury 30y (US30Y) Bond yields rose while the shorter term 10y (US10Y)and 2y (US02Y) bond yields dropped. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices declined as investors sold the riskier bonds for safer bets in short term treasury bonds (IEI). Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both increased significantly for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined. Timber (WOOD) is moving sideways. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment   Despite a drop in market prices, the put/call ratio dropped to 0.659. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders   The biggest for mega-caps all declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) was the only to close above its 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) dipped below both the 21d EMA and 50d MA but closed above the 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed below its 21d EMA and 50d MA. This action signals weakness in the mega-caps that have a huge influence over the rest of the market. Tesla (TSLA) had a positive day gaining 3.42%. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) also had gains for the days. AT&T (T) and Walmart (WMT) were other mega-caps that did well. Electric Vehicle stock NIO (NIO) gained +9.75%. Zoom Video (ZM) had a huge gain on fears of new lock downs in the US and Europe. Pinterest (PINS) also did well. Many other growth stocks did not fare well for the day. Digital Turbine (APPS), DataDog (DDOG) and Sumo Logic (SUMO) all lost over 7%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday will bring Manufacturing PMI data for December mid-morning. FOMC Member Williams will speak in the afternoon. However, all eyes will be on election news in Georgia as voters will determine which party controls the Senate. No notable earnings announcements are scheduled for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +2.90% gain. The five-day trend points to a sideways move with no gain/loss. The one-day line points to a -2.13% loss. The index held the 12,550 area today. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was not a great start to the year. However, it's no abnormal for some price discovery in the first week of January. Things could be turned upside down based on the election results in Georgia. We then have another day of tension to get past the certification of the electoral votes in Congress. On top of all that is new pandemic lockdowns in Europe and the possibility for new lockdowns in the US. It could be a another rough week, keep an eye on your stop loss orders and look for more stability later in January. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week In Review - 12/28/2020 - 12/31/2020The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, December 28, 2020 Oh I bet you think you're John Wayne Facts: +0.74%, Volume higher, Closing range: 70%, Body: 15% Good: New all-time high, filled morning gap, closed in upper half Bad: Could not close above open Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Dip in morning caused long lower wick, thin body in upper half Advance/Decline: 1.08, about even advancing and declining stocks Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.80%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.14%), Technology (XLK +1.13%) were top. Energy (XLE -0.63%) was the worst performing, the only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The Nasdaq came back from a long weekend with a gap-up on stimulus news that quickly sold-off to fill the gap. It then rose into the afternoon to set a new all-time high and then finish with a bit of selling late in the session. The index closed with a +0.74% gain. The closing range was 70% with a thin body of 15% in the upper half of the candle. Volume was higher, but only compared to a short session on Thursday. There were just a bit more advancing stocks than declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, December 29, 2020 It's coming down on me Water like misery Facts: -0.38%, Volume lower, Closing range: 19%, Body: 76% Good: New all-time high, held support above 12,800 Bad: Long red body, selling from open to close Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Long red body, short upper and lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.41, more than two declining for every advancing stock Sectors: Health (XLV +0.47%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.03%) are top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.77%) was bottom. Expectation: Lower The Nasdaq started the day by setting a new all-time high but quickly reversed downward and sold off the rest of the day. Still, it held above the 12,800 area which seems to be new support. The index closed with a -0.38% loss on lower volume. The closing range of 19% and 76% red body show the high open and intraday move to close near the low. Over two stocks declined for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, December 30, 2020 It took me so long getting back to my right mind. Facts: +0.15%, Volume higher, Closing range: 18%, Body: 54% Good: Stayed above yesterday's low Bad: Longer upper wick, closing range near bottom Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Outside day, >50% red body, longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.24, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Materials (XLB +1.38%) are top. Communications (XLC -0.67%) was bottom. Expectation: Lower It's been a third day of rotation in the market as the money that supported a move from smaller-caps to larger-caps on Monday transitioned back to smaller-caps today (small and mid-caps). The result was a larger breadth of stocks advancing, but a bearish looking inside day for the Nasdaq. The index closed up +0.15% on higher volume. That was the good news. The closing range of 18% and 54% red body point to a more bearish view of the day. More than two stocks advanced for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 31, 2020 Sun, sun, sun, here it comes Facts: +0.14%, Volume higher, Closing range: 83%, Body: 14% Good: Close high in the day's range Bad: LH/LL, spent long time near lows Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Indecisive candle with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.86, more declining than advancing stocks Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.49%), Financials (XLF +1.24%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.84%) is the only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The last trading day of 2020, finished a week of sideways movement in the market with an indecisive day. The body of only 14% shows the close is not very far above the open. The index closed with a 0.14% gain and a closing range of 83%. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) Happy New Year! The last week of trading in the Nasdaq resulted a pop on Monday that then moved sideways the rest of the week. The index did manage to set a new all-time high and close with a +0.65% for the week. But the close is just below the open, resulting in a spinning top style candle that marks some indecision. The lower closing range of 44% is still a positive as we like to see it above 40%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) ended its eight week winning streak by losing -0.26% for this week, after setting another new all-time high. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) both had bullish weeks with +0.64% and +0.65% gains respectively. For the Nasdaq, Monday started with a gap-up on positive stimulus news, but quickly filled the gap during morning selling. Even with the selling, the index could stay above the previous Friday's close and end the day in the upper range of the candle. Growth stocks gave up recent gains as investors moved money back into larger-cap stocks. That would be the story for most of the week. Tuesday brought a very bearish day of trading as the Nasdaq lost for the day, opening with a new all-time high, but closing below Monday's close. The bearish candle was representative of over two declining stocks for every advancing stock on the index. Wednesday would be the one bright spot for small caps as the Russell 2000 had its only positive day of the week. Breadth seemed to come back into the market as small-caps and several growth stocks made gains. But Thursday finally ended the week with expected defensive moves into Utilities and Value (see VTV and IUSV as examples) stocks as investors prepared for a long weekend and also a turnover to the new year. The weekly chart shows the spinning top candle with a bit of bearishness to it, despite the index ending the week in the positive. On the positive side, the candle shows a higher high and a higher low. The closing range of 44% is not great, but also not bad, since we look for a closing range above 40%. Communications ( XLC ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) spent about half the week each at the top of the sector list. But it was Utilities ( XLU ) that would rise at the end of the week as the winner. No doubt a defensive play going into the long weekend and a turn of the clock to a new year. Energy ( XLE ) had a very short-lived time at that top on Monday morning, but ended the week as the worst performing sector. Energy was the only sector to end the week with a loss. US Treasury Bond Yields dropped for a second week. The spreads between long term and short term bonds tightened slightly. The US 30y and US 10y yields are both in uptrends as investors are not interested in the long term bonds. The US 2y yield is in a sideways to downward trend. Prices for corporate bonds (HYG) continues to trend upward while short-term treasury bond prices (IEI) trend sideways, signaling confidence in the economy from investors. The US dollar (DXY) declined -0.32% for the week. The dollar is at a support/resistance area formed in the first quarter of 2018. The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.688. The level is more comfortable than the overly bullish levels seen in recent weeks. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. Silver (SILVER) was up +2.08% for the week while Gold (GOLD) rose +1.01%. Crude Oil was down -0.76%. Timber (WOOD) was up +0.61%. Copper (COPPER!1) pulled back with a -1.92% loss while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -2.12%. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) closed the week with a loss, declining -0.15% for the week. Amazon (AMZN) had the largest gain moving +2.66%. Alphabet (GOOGLE) was up +1.07% for the week, and closed above its 10w MA line. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.55%. Interesting chart of Growth vs Value stocks on a monthly basis. Value stocks still have a ways to catch up to Growth stocks in 2021. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead The first week of the year will kick-off with an OPEC meeting on Monday morning. Manufacturing PMI data for December earlier in the week will give an update on manufacturing data. Crude Oil inventories and updated employment data will come later in the week. FOMC meeting minutes from a few weeks ago will be released on Wednesday providing more insight into policy decisions. It will be a light week for earnings reports. Some retailers including Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Walgreen Boots Alliance (WBA) and Helen of Troy (HELE) will release earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side The last week of the 2021 year was a bit rough with rotations from smaller caps to larger caps, several industry sectors, and a big move at the end of the week into Utilities sector. That may have felt bearish for some investors and bullish for others. Looking at the Nasdaq chart, we see a higher high and a lower low on top of a decent gain. Confirmed by the bullish SPX and DJI charts. Although investors moved into defensive positions at the end of the week, the money stayed within equity markets with relatively little movement to treasury bonds. The demand for corporate bonds also shows that investors are bullish on the recovery for US companies. The stimulus that was signed into law early last week will start to filter into areas of the economy most in need, including checks for individuals. There was a spike in demand for Oil as travelers put pandemic worries aside and hit the road for the holidays. Europeans signed a huge trade deal with China while tensions between the UK and Europe should start to ease as the Brexit deal was finally agreed. As vaccines continue to be distributed across Europe, the end to lockdowns should be near, just in time for the increased economic opportunities. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Next week will bring the Georgia run-off elections which will determine if the Republicans or Democrats will control the Senate. A win for the Democrats will mean another shift back toward Blue Wave investments. The shift will no doubt benefit some while catching others off guard. The meteoric rise in Bitcoin over the last few weeks brings with it lots of questions. Is it speculative investors jumping in at new all-time highs? More likely is smart money buying up bitcoin as a hedge against the devaluation of world currencies, one of the well-known advantages of bitcoin. That, and some speculative investment. The smart money moving in could be a warning signal for the economy just as any other indicator based on treasury bonds, currency movements or commodities. After several weeks of higher highs and higher lows, the market could be due for more of a pullback. The 50d moving average line is about 6.5% below Thursday's close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: The high of Tuesday at 12,973.33 will be the first test. A new high to start the week would be a positive sign to continue the current rally. The index is just below the round number of 13,000. Round-number resistance is caused by traders’ tendency to put in sell orders at round numbers. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: 12,821.23 is the low of this week. Staying above the low would put in another week of higher lows. 12,800 is the next support area. The index has traded around that area the last few weeks. The 21d EMA is at 12,612.94. The index has closed above this moving average line for the last 40 trading days. The support area of 12,250 is the next support area. Hopefully, that area will hold the index above that price level. The 50d MA is at 12,078.79. That is ~6.5% below Thursday's close. Testing the 50d MA will make a lot of investors nervous, already causing a big hit to portfolios. November support area is at 12,000 and a round-number point. A move below this line would raise more flags for investors. September Support line is at 11,300. Dropping to this level would be a sure sign of correction. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I hope you have a great start to the New Year and wish you many great successes in 2021! Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/31Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (43d), 12/24 (5d) and today 12/31 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 31, 2020 Sun, sun, sun, here it comes Facts: +0.14%, Volume higher, Closing range: 83%, Body: 14% Good: Close high in the day's range Bad: LH/LL, spent long time near lows Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Indecisive candle with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.86, more declining than advancing stocks Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.49%), Financials (XLF +1.24%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.84%) is the only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The last trading day of 2020, finished a week of sideways movement in the market with an indecisive day. The body of only 14% shows the close is not very far above the open. The index closed with a 0.14% gain and a closing range of 83%. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX +0.64%) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI +0.65%) set new all-time highs to end the year while the Russell 2000 (RUT -0.26%) continued a year-end pullback. Utilities (XLU +1.49%) and Financials (XLF +1.24%) led the sectors, with Utilities getting a big boost at the end of the day as a defensive play going into a long weekend. Energy (XLE -0.84%) was the only losing sector for the day. The VIX volatility index declined by -0.09%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators   Yields declined on US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bonds. The spread between long term and short term bonds tightened slightly. Corporate bond prices (HYG +0.08%) rose for the day, tightening the yield spread with short term bonds (IEI +0.04%).     The US dollar (DXY +0.29%) rose for the day. Silver (SILVER -0.99%) declined while Gold (GOLD +0.19%) advanced for the day. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL1! +0.17%) rose. Timber (WOOD -0.53%) declined. Copper (COPPER1! -0.88%) and Aluminum (ALI1! -1.70%) declined.   The put/call ratio rose to 0.688. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders   Microsoft (MSFT +0.33%) and Alphabet (GOOGL +0.94%) advanced for the day while Apple (AAPL -0.77%) and Amazon (AMZN -0.88%) declined. Alphabet closed above its 21d EMA. All four biggest mega-caps are trading above the key moving averages. Top performing mega-caps included Netflix (NFLX +3.08%), Comcast (CMCSA +2.32%), Intel (INTC +2.19%) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH +0.44%). Some growth stocks did well on the last day of the year, but most had declines. Tesla (TSLA +1.57%), Zynga (ZNGA +1.54%), SNAP (SNAP +1.46%) and PayPal (PYPL +1.16%) were among the top performers. Fastly (FSLY -3.38%), Zoom Video (ZM -4.55%), Draft Kings (DKNG -4.88%) and Fiverr (FVRR -5.02%) had big declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will be the first trading day of 2021. An OPEC meeting will open the week. Manufacturing PMI data will be released just after markets open. Later in the morning, FOMC Member Bostic will make public comments. The afternoon will bring updates on speculative positions for several commodities. No notable earnings announcements are scheduled for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +1.20% gain The five-day trend and one-day trend lines point to a small loss of -0.13%. As the calendar turns over to the new year, market sentiment may change as well. If the index moves down, there seems to be a support level from 12,750 to 12,800 where the index can pause during a pullback. The previous support level is around 12,500. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market did not really move much this week. The weekly candle is an indecisive spinning top where the top and bottom wicks are similar in length, while the body is thin with the closing price for the week being very near the open. The next week will bring some uncertainty around the elections in Georgia and the drama of the electoral vote confirmation in congress. Keep to your trading rules to avoid overreacting to news. The index will pass 200 trading days since the March bottom this week. That will soon bring the popular 200d moving average much closer to current prices. It's currently 18% below the index. Having the 200d moving average in play, will be another area of support/resistance as the market moves into 2021. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321