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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 11/16Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (26d), 10/30 bottom (12d), 11/10 (5d), and today 11/16 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 16, 2020 Take my hand We're off to never never-land Facts: +0.80% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 89%, Body: 63% Good: Recovered from mid-day dip to finish near highs Bad: Not much, solid day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body, tiny upper wick. Advance/Decline: 2.39, almost 5 advancing stocks for every 2 declining stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +6.58%) and Energy (XLE +6.58%) at the top (yes, I counted it twice). Health (XLV -0.19) is the only sector with a loss. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq started the week off with a decent gain that showed a positive reaction to comments from the November FOMC meeting. FOMC committee members Daly and Clarida made public comments around 14:00pm that monetary policy, including quantitative easing and interest rates, would remain the same while watching the economy closely. Investors responded positively to the remarks as the indexes pivoted back toward highs of the day. The Nasdaq ended up +0.80% for the day with a 63% green body and an 89% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle is mostly body with a lower wick formed from open prices and a short upper wick from the close near the daily highs. The index closed just under the 10/12 pivot high, a key line to watch for resistance later this week on the way to a new all-time high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The other major indexes made new all-time highs, adding to last week’s performance. The Russell 2000 (+2.37%) finished up the highest among the indexes and showing the continued interest in small-cap stocks in the market. The S&P 500 (SPX +1.16%) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI +1.60%) also finished in the positive, outperforming the Nasdaq composite. Energy (XLE +6.58%) continued to build on the amazing performance last week, building off hopes of economic recovery in sectors that depend on energy such as transportation, travel and leisure industries. Industrials (XLI +2.44%) and Financials (XLF +2.22%) came in as a distance second and third. The only sector that closed with a loss on the day was Health (XLV -0.17%) The VIX volatility index decreased -2.81%, getting close to the lows of August. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Greenback and Commodities Treasury Bond yields increased just slightly for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also increased while the 30Y-10Y remained about the same. Corporate Bonds continue to see an influx of investment, widening the spread between these bonds and treasury bonds. The US dollar (DXY -0.17%) weakened further. Silver (SILVER +0.47%) increased slightly while Gold (GOLD +0.03%) remained flat. Timber (WOOD +2.19%) continued to climb on strong demand for building materials. Aluminum Futures (ALI1! +1.21%) also climbed on high demand, likely from an increase in manufacturing and packaging needs (think especially automotive and beverages). Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL +2.23%) dropped but is still up over 18% since the end of October. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four big mega-caps turned in positive results for the day but mostly underperformed the index. Apple (AAPL +0.87%) is the exception, performing just slightly better than the index after opening behind the index. Microsoft (MSFT +0.33%) and Google (GOOG +0.25%) are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN +0.07%) has yet to close above these key indicators after dropping below last week. Other notable performances from mega-caps include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +6.49%) and Walt Disney Company (DIS +4.56%). Pfizer (PFE -3.34%) continues to slide back after the big gains after their vaccine announcement last week. Some growth stocks are recovering from last weeks rotation, while others are continuing to sell. Fiverr sold off heavily on Mon and Tues of last week but is gaining ground and could see new all-time highs soon with the current trajectory. Organic Gardening stock GrowGeneration (GRWG +4.11%) continues to climb after a boost from the election results legalizing marijuana in several states. COVID pandemic favorite Zoom Video (ZM -1.10%) maybe finding a support area but still needs to prove itself in the current price range. JD.com (JD -7.41%) sold off after releasing earnings that disappointed on revenue. Transportation, Travel, and Leisure stocks got another boost from an additional vaccine announcement from Moderna (MRNA +9.58%). American Airlines (AAL +4.49%) and Delta (DAL +4.22%), Hilton (HLT +4.55%) and Marriott (MAR +3.13%), Carnival Corp (CCL +9.74%) and Royal Caribbean (RCL +6.93%) represented big names in industries that got the boost. Tyson Foods (TSN +3.83%) reporting earnings after the close and beat expectations on earnings and revenue. The stock is up 4.17% in after-hours trading and is a good start to a week of earnings from consumer and retail stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead It is the week of retail. On top of many earnings releases, economic data tomorrow will include Core Retail Sales monthly data. Walmart (WMT +1.26%), Home Depot (HD +0.87%), Kohls (KSS +7.79%) will release earnings tomorrow, providing more detail on the health of the Retail industry. Import/Export Price indexes will be released. Additional statements will be made from the Federal Open Market Committee. Technology Services company Sea Limited (SE -1.77%) will release earnings tomorrow. The stock is up 350% for the year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 10/30 bottom is still pointing to a new all-time high, even though the index is taking its time to get there. That would be a +1.71% gain from today’s close. The five-day trend is pointing to a +0.46% gain, just above the 10/12 pivot high. The one-day trend line is showing mostly a sideways move for tomorrow with a small lost of -0.40%. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.90% loss which would be just above the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It is retail week for the market. All eyes are on earnings from the companies along the supply change from producers to sellers. Added to that will be MoM retail data. Taken all together, it could be a hint of what’s to come for Black Friday and beyond. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week In Review - 11/9/2020 - 11/13/2020The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a larger view on the past week What's coming in the next week Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 9, 2020 Oh life, it’s bigger It’s bigger than you know Facts: -1.53%% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 3%, Body: 82% Good: Nothing Bad: Negative expectation breaker, not much pause on the way down Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low, bearish engulfing candle Candle: Tiny top wick from morning, sell-off rest of day Advance/Decline: 2.00, two advancing stocks for each declining stock Sectors: Energy (+14.28%) and Financials (XLF +9.21%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.72%) and Communications (XLC -0.85%). Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market turned itself upside down again with a negative expectation breaker following the news of an effective Coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer (PFE +7.69%) and BioNTech (BNTX +13.91%). Investors quickly exited stocks that have grown during the pandemic and rushed into companies that have been weighted down such as travel and energy companies. The Nasdaq started with gains in the morning, but quickly turned those gains into losses that never stopped into close. The index closed down -1.53% with a closing range of 3% and a thick red body of 82%. The candle is a bearish engulfing, with a higher high and a lower low than the previous day. However, advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks at a 2 to 1 ratio. Who benefited from the day? Small caps, lots of them. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 10, 2020 Change don't come at once It's a wave building before it breaks Facts: -1.37% lower, Volume lower, Closing range: 54%, Body: 28% Good: Successful test of 21d EMA Bad: Choppy back and forth day after dip at open Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low, continuation candle Candle: Thin body, closes in middle of candle, with longer bottom wick Advance/Decline: 1.49, three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Sectors: Energy (+3.24%), Consumer Staples (XLP +1.97%), Industrials (XLI +1.76%) were top. Technology (XLK -1.86%) was at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market on Tuesday continued its rotation from big Technology and Communications stocks into small-cap and energy stocks. Initiated by the news on Monday of a vaccine for Coronavirus and hopes the economy could recover sooner than expected. The Nasdaq, heavy on technology stocks, has taken the brunt of the sell-off of stocks that have done well thus far in 2020. The index finished down -1.37% on lower volume than Monday, but higher than average volume for recent weeks. The candle has the properties of a continuation candle with a small 28% red body and a 54% closing range. It leaves me wondering if the index will move sideways from here or have further losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 11, 2020 Whatever it takes 'Cause I love the adrenaline in my veins Facts: +2.01% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 95%, Body: 84% Good: Up the whole day, closed near highs Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Very tiny wicks, sold green body Advance/Decline: 1.30, a ratio of about 4:3 advancing to declining stocks Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.37%) far above the others. Energy (XLE -1.03%) and Materials (XLB -1.49%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways As rotations often go, the move earlier this week into Energy, Transportation and Leisure stocks was a bit too far and needed to swing back the other way. The Nasdaq benefited from that swing back to Technology stocks which are still in-play until the pandemic is truly behind us. The index is up +2.01% today and moved upward almost the entire day, ending the day with a 95% closing range and 85% green body. Volume was lower than the previous days and fell below the 50d average volume. The positive day was a pleasant surprise after the past two days, but I think we can expect more of the unexpected in coming days and weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 12, 2020 You'll never find your gold on a sandy beach Facts: -0.65% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 24%, Body: 51% Good: Higher high, Higher low Bad: Could not hold days high, finished near the low on higher volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Larger upper wick, thick body. Advance/Decline: 0.48, 2 declining stocks for every advancing stock Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.27%) and Health (XLV -0.37%). Energy (XLE -3.23%) and Materials (XLB -2.11%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market started the day with some energy when Initial Jobless Claims came in less than expected showing some positive news against continued economic worries surrounded by the pandemic. However, quickly sold off led by the Energy sector after Crude Oil Inventories showed a surprise increase when a decrease was expected. Core CPI came in less than expected and could be a sign of continued economic weakness. The Nasdaq fell -0.65% on slightly higher volume than the previous day. Volume is still below average for recent weeks. The candle has a closing range of 24% with a 51% red body. The upper wick is slightly higher showing the bears won the day. The Nasdaq had two declining stocks for every advancing stock, a better result than the broader market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 13, 2020 I walk alone, I walk alone Facts: +1.02% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 26% Good: Closing range near intraday highs Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long lower wick, thin body, nearly an inside day. Advance/Decline: 2.89, almost 3 advancing stocks for every declining stock Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The Nasdaq was left out of the all-time high close party where the other indexes celebrated today. It was still a good day, but the focus was on sectors other than Technology, which is heavily represented in the Nasdaq. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in higher then expected while Core PPI (which excludes Energy and Food) came in lower than expected. Investors seemed to attribute that to the Energy sector, which was the top performing sector of the day. The Nasdaq index rose +1.02% and ended the day with an 85% closing range and a 26% green body in the upper half of the day. Volume was lower than the prior day. The longer lower wick was formed from morning lows which were not revisited through the rest of the day. A short upper wick formed near close as investors exited positions heading into the weekend. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock in the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The week of rotations. If your week started the same as mine, it was early Monday morning, and I was putting in my typical orders to create new positions in my favorite growth stocks. The election seemed behind us and it was time for the post-election rally. And then it happened. The good news that was bad news; bad news for my growth stocks. Pfizer and BioNTech announced data from trials showed a 90% effectiveness rate for their vaccine. I was looking at the Zoom video chart at the time the news came out and watched it plunge. Investors quickly exited growth stocks that had benefited from the pandemic lockdowns. But not before making a new all-time high for the Nasdaq. That all-time high was short lived as the tech-heavy Nasdaq sold off to other sectors. Where did they go? Two places. First, they went to stocks that have been held down the pandemic. Those included Transportation stocks such as airlines, Travel stocks such as hotels and Leisure stocks including Cruise lines and Movie theatres. AMC as an example, rose 51.41% on Monday. The other big winner of the day was Energy stocks that will benefit from these other sectors picking back up activity. Second, investors moved to small caps who also will benefit from an economic recovery. The Russell 2000 index rose 6% for the week compared to the Nasdaq composite index that lost -0.55% for the week. Not all technology growth stocks were left in the dust. The rotation eventually rolled back somewhat on Wednesday when investors bought back big names like Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. Along with the big names several growth stocks were bought back heavily, but nonetheless ended the week mostly with losses. Energy (XLE +17.11% WoW) was the clear winner of the week. Straight out of the gait, Energy benefited from the news that an effective vaccine could be available soon. The Energy sector would benefit from the economic recovery of several of sectors including Transportation, Travel and Leisure. Financials (XLF +8.29% WoW) followed in a distance second. Banks have a lot to benefit from an economic recovery including higher yields in bonds as investors move back into equities. Those two sectors stood tall above the rest who all performed more closely to the S&P 500 performance. Technology (XLK -0.31% WoW) was the only sector to end the week with losses. A clear metric of what we already knew - that investors rotated out of popular technology stocks that benefited from the pandemic lockdowns. US Treasure Bond Yields were up for the week. The 30Y-10Y spread tightened, but the 10Y-2Y spread is back near highs not seen since 2018. That does not necessarily warrant concern by itself but is something to continue to watch. The yields are still too low to attract investors out of equities. However, higher yields will impact where investors focus in the market. The higher yields drive interest rates and may signal a move toward value stocks and away from growth stocks which tend to be heavier on debt to rapidly grow business. The big four mega-caps did not escape the rotation madness. Apple and Google are up for the week while Microsoft is down. Amazon had the worst week among the big four, ending the week under it’s 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple and Microsoft both found themselves below these key moving averages earlier in the week but closed back above them by Friday. Depending on their sector, the other mega-caps had mixed results for the week. The put/call ratio spiked toward the bearish side on Wednesday, but quickly moved back below the 0.7 bullish threshold. The contrarian indicator can show when there is too much bullish sentiment or too much bearish sentiment in the market. The indicator is still above the areas the proceeded corrections earlier this year. Gold and Silver ended the week flat. Crude Oil futures gained ground. The big story continues to be aluminum. Beer and soda companies are struggling to keep up with demand. Yes, we are all drinking too much during the pandemic. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Next week the story will be about Retail and Consumer Staples. Earnings from big companies like Tyson Foods, Walmart, TJX, Target, Ross, Lowe’s will give investors a clear view in how consumer spending is recovering. The indicators from this past week, including Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and Consumer Confidence were mixed so next week’s earnings will be watched closely. Nvidia will also announce earnings next week, one of the only big tech to release next week. There will be comments made by the Federal Open Market Committee throughout the week. These comments usually contain subtle hints to monetary policy changes that may be on the horizon. Core Retail Sales data will be released on Tuesday. Construction and Real Estate data will be released on Wednesday along with the weekly Crude Oil updates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: 11965.54 is the 10/12 pivot day high and currently putting resistance on the index. Passing this will be the first test for next week. Passing 12108.87 is the new all-time high. The index was only there briefly on Monday before selling-off. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise red flags, many similar to what we watched for last week: Tuesday’s low of 11,424.61. Dropping this low would be a signal of significant weakness. The low of Thursday, Nov 4 is at 11,394.21. There is another gap to fill below that line. The 21d EMA is at 11533.87. The index successfully tested that line and closed above it this past week. October Support is at 11,400. September Support is at 11,300, and just below the 50d MA of 11,308.07. The next area to watch is the July support area at 10,600. Approaching that area would be a significant pullback and put the market back into correction. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up That was a crazy week. Growth stock portfolios were ripped apart and watchlists shredded. This weekend will be a good time to pause and look at the big picture of what is going on in the market. What are the new trends to emerge as the market looks past the pandemic? What companies are likely to find strength coming out of the pandemic. The energy, travel and leisure companies may continue to recover or there may be more tough times ahead. Even with the pandemic in a second wave and new lockdowns possible, the market still seems to be looking beyond that, anticipating an end. On the other hand, it is very real that we are not out of the woods. Economic indicators are mixed across the board. Retail and Consumer Staples earnings next week will be watched very closely for how these sectors are performing now and what their outlook is for the next quarter. Watch closely the comments from FOMC executives and their confidence levels for economic recovery and any changes to monetary policy. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 11/13Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (25d), 10/30 bottom (11d), 11/9 (5d), and today 11/13 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 13, 2020 I walk alone, I walk alone Facts: +1.02% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 26% Good: Closing range near intraday highs Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long lower wick, thin body, nearly an inside day. Advance/Decline: 2.89, almost 3 advancing stocks for every declining stock Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq was left out of the all-time high close party where the other indexes celebrated today. It was still a good day, but the focus was on sectors other than Technology, which is heavily represented in the Nasdaq. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in higher then expected while Core PPI (which excludes Energy and Food) came in lower than expected. Investors seemed to attribute that to the Energy sector, which was the top performing sector of the day. The Nasdaq index rose +1.02% and ended the day with an 85% closing range and a 26% green body in the upper half of the day. Volume was lower than the prior day. The longer lower wick was formed from morning lows which were not revisited through the rest of the day. A short upper wick formed near close as investors exited positions heading into the weekend. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock in the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -1.36%), Dow Jones Industrial average (DHI -1.37%) and Russell 2000 (RUT +2.08%) all had all-time high closes. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial are still below the intraday all-time highs they set on Monday. The RUT closed near its intraday all-time high and is up almost 13% from a bottom on 10/30. All sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +3.64%), Real Estate (XLRE +2.29) and Industrials (XLI +2.22%) are the biggest winners of the day. Health (XLV +1.26%), Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) had gains but lagged the S&P 500. The VIX volatility index decreased -8.88%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Greenback and Commodities Treasury Bond yields increased slightly for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also increased while the 30Y-10Y spread continues to tighten over the past week. The US dollar (DXY -0.26%) weakened. The Produce Price Index is a bullish indicator for the greenback, but the Consumer Confidence data released from University of Michigan is a bearish signal for the currency. Gold (GOLD +0.65%) and Silver (SILVER +1.49%) both increased. Timber (WOOD +2.76%) returned from losses yesterday to end the week at a high point. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL -3.71%) dropped but is still up over 18% since the end of October. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps had gains for the day. Only Google (GOOG +1.55%) outperformed the Nasdaq. Apple (AAPL +0.04%) closed nearly even for the day. Microsoft (MSFT +0.50%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.6%) did better but still underperformed the market at open and close and lagged the intraday movement. Growth stocks continued the mix of gains and losses that have been the hallmark of this week. Fiverr (FVRR +4.97%), JD.COM (JD +6.60%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.59%) were among stocks that had did well. Zoom (ZM -5.85%) and Peloton (PTON +7.29%) were among the stocks that continued to slide as the potential for a new vaccine could change the growth characteristics for these businesses that benefited from lockdowns. Draft Kings (DKNG +3.85%) beat expectations and gave a great forecast. It gapped at open but dropped nearly 6% in intraday trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Daly and Clarida, members of the Federal Open Market Committee, will speak on Monday about the economy which usually drops hints about monetary policy. Tyson Foods (TSN +2.50%) will release earnings on Monday, kicking off a week or consumer and retail earnings releases for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 10/30 bottom has consistently pointed to a new all-time high, as prices moved mostly sideways this week. That would be a +2.38% increase and welcome the index to the group of other indexes trading at all-time highs. Continuing today’s one-day trend line would result in a +0.29% gain. The five-day trend line is still on a negative slope and pointing to a -1.15% loss for Monday. The longest trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.59% loss, right at the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Friday continued the week of rotations, causing a lot of damage to investors favorite watchlists. Its hard to find setups with good entry points when heavy rotations are occurring. Hopefully next week will bring some more resolution around issues impacting the market and give more indication of direction. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/12Trend lines drawn from the 10/12 pivot day (24d), 10/30 bottom (10d), 11/6 (5d), and today 11/12 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, November 12, 2020 You'll never find your gold on a sandy beach Facts: -0.65% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 24%, Body: 51% Good: Higher high, Higher low Bad: Could not hold days high, closed near the low on higher volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Larger upper wick, thick body. Advance/Decline: 0.48, 2 declining stocks for every advancing stock Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.27%) and Health (XLV -0.37%). Energy (XLE -3.23%) and Materials (XLB -2.11%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market started the day with some energy when Initial Jobless Claims came in less than expected showing some positive news against continued economic worries surrounded by the pandemic. However, quickly sold off led by the Energy sector after Crude Oil Inventories showed a surprise increase when a decrease was expected. Core CPI came in less than expected and could be a sign of continued economic weakness. The Nasdaq fell -0.65% on slightly higher volume than the previous day. Volume is still below average for recent weeks. The candle has a closing range of 24% with a 51% red body. The upper wick is slightly higher showing the bears won the day. The Nasdaq had two declining stocks for every advancing stock, a better result than the broader market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -1.00%), Dow Jones Industrial average (DHI -1.08%) and Russell 2000 (RUT -1.64%) also had losses on the day with the RUT seeing the biggest decline. The RUT confirms a hanging man candlestick the previous day, signaling a reversal for the index. All sectors ended the day with losses. Communications (XLC -0.57%), Technology (XLK -0.89%) and Health (XLV -0.37%) led the morning gains before losing ground. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.27%) ended the day with the least damage. Energy (XLE -3.23%) and Materials (XLB -2.11%) were the worst two sectors for the second day in a row. The VIX volatility index increased +8.10% reversing a recent downtrend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Greenback and Commodities Treasury Bond yields declined for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also decreased. The spread was is near its highest point since February of 2018. The US dollar (DXY -0.09%) weakened slightly after several days of gains. A decrease in the value of Gold (GOLD +0.61%) increased slightly while Silver (SILVER +0.10%) remained about the same. Timber (WOOD -2.32%) took a reversal off a high point. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL -0.03%) remained flat despite OPEC lowering demand estimates and inventories increasing more than expected. Crude Oil is up over 15% since the start of November. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Except for Amazon (AMZN -0.86%), the big four mega-caps of Apple (AAPL -0.23%), Microsoft (MSFT -0.51%) and Google (GOOG -0.16%) outperformed the index despite having losses for the day. Amazon tested the 21d EMA but did not make it over and remains the only of the big four under the key moving average lines. Most other mega-caps had losses today. Growth stocks saw a mix of gains and losses today. Elective Vehicle company NIO (NIO +12.12%) rose significantly. GrowGeneration (GRWG +16.05%) a provider of hydroponic and organic gardening supplies had a huge boost from earnings and election results that are viewed to be in support of the industry. WIX.com (WIX -5.45%) had a mixed reaction to earnings, selling off but staying within this past weeks trading range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Growth stock Draftkings (DKNG -0.94%) will announce earnings tomorrow. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be release tomorrow prior to market open. This will give another view on inflation. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend from the 10/30 bottom still points to just above all time highs at a +3.12% gain from today’s close. That is the only trend line showing a positive gain for tomorrow. Add that to a bearish candlestick pattern for today and it seems unlikely without a news catalyst. The five-day trend line is pointing to a -0.76% loss for tomorrow. The longest trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is meeting up with the one-day trend at a -1.95% loss. That would be just below the 21d EMA but above the October support area. It is worth noting that the Nasdaq is forming an ascending triangle on the index daily chart. A pattern is just a pattern and does not necessarily predict anything. There is a lot that can disrupt expectations from the unfinalized election to the unknowns the pandemic and vaccine timing. If the pattern does play out, it is showing more consolidation before the market can move higher. If that is true, there is a good chance for the index to revisit the bottom of the ascending triangle. I added a line on the chart for the bottom of the triangle. The top is same as the all-time high line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It has been mostly a sideways move for the market since Monday’s rotation instigated by the positive news of a vaccine for Coronavirus, possibly bringing an end to the economic stress sooner than expected. At the same time, the signals are mixed. Investors rotated back into covid-plays the past two days. Many economic indicators that were positives on Monday and Tuesday are softening or reversing now. On the positive side, the four mega-caps held up well compared to the market today. Although it did have some impact, Investors did not overreact to the economic news of consumer prices and oil inventories. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/11Trend lines drawn from the 10/12 pivot day (23d), 10/30 bottom (9d), 11/5 (5d), and today 11/11 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or check the comments on TradingView. I don’t have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 11, 2020 Whatever it takes 'Cause I love the adrenaline in my veins Facts: +2.01% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 95%, Body: 84% Good: Up the whole day, closed near highs Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Very tiny wicks, sold green body Advance/Decline: 1.30, a ratio of about 4:3 advancing to declining stocks Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.37%) far above the others. Energy (XLE -1.03%) and Materials (XLB -1.49%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview As rotations often go, the move earlier this week into Energy, Transportation and Leisure stocks was a bit too far and needed to swing back the other way. The Nasdaq benefited from that swing back to Technology stocks which are still in-play until the pandemic is truly behind us. The index is up +2.01% today and moved upward almost the entire day, ending the day with a 95% closing range and 85% green body. Volume was lower than the previous days and fell below the 50d average volume. The positive day was a pleasant surprise after the past two days, but I think we can expect more of the unexpected in coming days and weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX +0.77%) had a positive inside day ending with gains. An inside day is when the high and low is within the prior days high and low. The day fits within the past two days that have opened and closed within a 1% range in the index. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI -0.08%) had a small loss but is also within a tight open/close range for this week. The Russell 2000 (RUT -0.00%) ended the day flat but with a candle that looks like a top signal, to be confirmed later this week. Technology (XLK +2.37%) clearly had everyone’s attention today as traders moved back into stocks that have done well during the pandemic. Communications (XLC +0.91%) followed with a far second and close to several other sectors ending positive on the day. Energy (XLE -1.03%) and Materials (XLB -1.49%) were the losing sectors of the day as investors took profits and rotated back to tech. Financials (XLF -0.41%) and Industrials (XLI -0.84%) were also down after gains earlier this week. The VIX volatility index decreased -5.44% for the day and had the lowest close since early September. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Forex and Commodities Treasury Bond yields decreased for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also decreased, but not so much to cause alarm. The spread, an indicator of investors’ confidence in the economy, is still at its highest point since February of 2018. The US dollar (DXY +0.32%) strengthened, also signaling investors’ confidence in economic recovery. A decrease in the value of Gold (GOLD -0.63%) is not unexpected when the value of the US dollar increases. Silver (SILVER +0.16%) remained about the same. Timber (WOOD +0.73%) is at its highest point since 2018. Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL +1.90%) is up over 15% since the start of November and had increases today despite OPEC projecting weaker demand thru 2021. The worsening projection was not a surprise to investors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps all reversed off losses yesterday to close with gains today. Apple (AAPL +3.04%), Microsoft (MSFT +2.63%) and Amazon (AMZN +3.37%) all outperformed the index from open to close. Google (GOOG +0.71%) continues to move sideways after several weeks of growth. Only Amazon remains below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines which can act as resistance as well as support. The rest of the mega-caps faired well, except for those who benefited from the rotation earlier in the week. Investors took profits from mega-cap stocks in Financials and Consumer Staples. Many growth stocks had gains today, but any excitement needs to be tempered with the losses they incurred on Monday and Tuesday. Fiverr International (FVRR +17.66%) had a big gain but is still down -15% for the week. Nvidia (NVDA +5.07%) is up today but still down -8% for the week. Pinterest (PINS +6.97%) is also up for the day but remains down -8% for the week. That list can go on and on. Datadog (DDOG -6.23%) is down after beating expectations but not impressing investors enough to stick with the stock. GrowGeneration (GRWG +7.77%) met earnings expectations and is up 7% in afterhours trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Farfetch (FTCH +3.88%), Globant (GLOB -1.85%) and Wix.com (WIX +10.49%), Applied Materials (AMAT +2.55%) are among earnings releases for tomorrow. On the economic news calendar, Consumer Price Index data, Initial Jobless Claims and Crude Oil Inventories will be announced tomorrow. Expect Consumer Price Index is projected to remain about the same. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to be lower from last week. Crude Oil Inventories are expected to be negative after a big surprise decrease last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend from the 10/30 bottom is pointing to a +3.12% increase for tomorrow, taking the index back to all-time highs. A more modest gain would be following today’s one-day trend line that would result in a +0.55% gain, a sideways move considering the trading range over the past week. The five-day trend line is pointing to a -1.50% loss while the longer-term trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.95% loss. The latter would be just below the 21d EMA. It is worth noting that the Nasdaq is forming an ascending triangle on the index daily chart. A pattern is just a pattern and does not necessarily predict anything. There is a lot that can disrupt expectations from the unfinalized election to the unknowns the pandemic and vaccine timing. However, if the pattern does play out, it’s showing consolidation before the market can move higher. If that is true, there is a good chance for the index to revisit the bottom of the ascending triangle. I added a line on the chart for the bottom of the triangle. The top is same as the all-time high line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Lots to absorb in the past two weeks. I know personally I would like to see a direction for the market, and I imagine most investors are in the same boat. If it wants to go up, great. If it wants to go down, also great. But the back and forth, stock rotations, news impacts can all be very tiring and demoralizing. Keep your spirits up and know you are not alone. With a little luck, you have been turning a profit. If not, there will be future profits to be had. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/9Trend lines drawn from the 10/12 pivot day (21d), 10/30 bottom (7d), 11/3 (5d), and today 11/9 (1d). I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 9, 2020 Oh life, it’s bigger It’s bigger than you know Facts: -1.53%% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 3%, Body: 82% Good: Nothing Bad: Negative expectation breaker, not much pause on the way down Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low, bearish engulfing candle Candle: Tiny top wick from morning, sell-off rest of day Advance/Decline: 2.00, two advancing stocks for each declining stock Sectors: Energy (+14.28%) and Financials (XLF +9.21%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.72%) and Communications (XLC -0.85%). Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market turned itself upside down again with a negative expectation breaker following the news of an effective Coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer (PFE +7.69%) and BioNTech (BNTX +13.91%). Investors quickly exited stocks that have grown during the pandemic and rushed into companies that have been weighted down such as travel and energy companies. The Nasdaq started with gains to an all-time high in the morning, but quickly turned those gains into losses that never stopped into close. The index closed down -1.53% with a closing range of 3% and a thick red body of 82%. The candle is a bearish engulfing, with a higher high and a lower low than the previous day. However, advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks at a 2 to 1 ratio. Who benefited from the day? Small caps, lots of them. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX +1.17%) gapped up and finished positive for the day, but well-off the intraday highs. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -1.19%) lossed on the day, also ending in the lower half of the day’s trading range. The Russell 2000 (RUT -3.70%) had an exceptionally good day, showing much of the money rotated to small cap stocks in a volatile session. All three of these indexes made all-time highs but did not close above the previous all-time high. Energy (XLE +14.28%) sky-rocketed in value as it will likely benefit from several sectors recovering when the vaccine becomes available and the economy gets more activity. Financials (XLF +8.21%) sector also stands to benefit from the increased economic activity. Communications (XLC -0.85%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) were the worst performing sectors. Social platforms and several technology stocks were seen to have benefited from the pandemic lockdowns and other constraints, but tailwinds are likely to go away moving forward. The VIX volatility index increased +3.68% for the day but is still in a reasonable range given the past several weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds, Forex and Commodities Treasury Bond yields increased for the day and the 10Y-2Y and 30Y-10Y spread remained about the same. The US dollar strengthened as investors are seeing the potential for improvements to the US economy. Commodities (especially Gold and Silver) gave up some of last week’s big gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN -5.06%) suffered the biggest loss of the four mega-cap stocks. Microsoft (MSFT -2.38%) and Apple (AAPL -2.00%) did a little better but both still had bigger losses than the index. Google (GOOG +0.07%) ended the day with a small gain, bucking the trend for Communication sector stocks, and outperforming the Nasdaq. Most mega-caps also had disappointing days. Notable exceptions include financial stocks such as Bank of America (BAC +14.19%) and JP Morgan Chace (JPM +13.54%). Another that got a pop from the vaccine news was Disney (DIS +11.87%). M-I-C-K-E-Y! It is hard to find growth stocks that did well today. Many of the stocks categorized as growth stocks for this year were viewed as though their time to shine is past. On the other hand, Uber (UBER +7.38%) will get a boost from more ridership. NIO (NIO +5.74%) continued its rise as if nothing has changed. The story today is with Energy, Leisure, Travel and Transportation stocks. Royal Caribbean (RCL +28.79%), United Airlines (UAL +19.15%) and Marriott (MAR +13.87%) got a huge boost in the Leisure and Travel. Valero Energy Corp (VLO +31.20%) led the Energy sector while Exxon Mobil (XOM +12.66%) and Chevron (CVX +11.60%) both turned in similar gains. After hours, Beyond Meat (BYND -4.05%) was down over 20% after disappointing investors with their quarterly earnings report. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will bring two monthly economic news releases. The first is the Short-Term Energy Outlook which provides forecasts for future consumption across multiple fuel types. The second is the JOLTs job opening data will give an outlook on how quickly we can get people back to work. Earnings reports for tomorrow will include Datadog (DDOG -5.44%), Palomar (PLMR +0.74%), D.R. Horton (DHI -8.02%) our new favorite BioNTech (BNTX +13.91%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend points to about the same location as the trend from the 9/30 bottom. Getting back to that trend line would mean a +5.18% gain, breaking past the 10/12 pivot resistance point and a new all time high. If the other indexes reverse off today’s afternoon sell-off and find their way back to all-time highs, then it is possible to carry the Nasdaq in that momentum to new highs. But unless investors have a change of perspective, it does not appear the Nasdaq would arrive there on its own. Further movement of money from 2020 growth stocks to Energy, Travel, Leisure stocks would continue today’s one-day trend and result in a -0.66% loss. A further breakdown of the market does not seem likely (looking at Bond yields and Commodities) but could find the index back near the trend line from the 10/12 pivot. That would be a -2.91% loss and put the index back below the 21d EMA. Every time I think we are clear from worrying about the July Support area, something changes. Breaking through that support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. That area is back within sight at 9% below today’s close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Today was positive news that had some negative consequences for many growth investors in the market. Tomorrow could see another change as investors digest the news of the vaccine and begin to more accurately price-in the impact to these companies. Some companies clearly benefited from the constraints brought on by the pandemic and could find weakness once those constraints are lifted. Others have product offerings and business models that will endure and simply got some tailwind in growth from the pandemic. As these directional changes occur, keep building your watchlist, and continue following your investment rules. Measure your position size against your stop loss and keep your risks under control. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Nasdaq Market Update for 11/6Trend lines drawn from the 10/12 pivot day (20d), 10/30 bottom (6d), 11/2 (5d), and today 11/6 (1d). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, November 6, 2020 I don't know why you say goodbye, I say Hello Facts: +0.04% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 86%, Body: 14% Good: Recovered from morning lows and closed near highs Bad: Nothing, the index needed a pause Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Bullish thick body candle after a gap up Advance/Decline: 0.63, three declining stocks for every two advancing stock Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.46%) and Technology (XLK +0.35%) were top. Energy (XLE -2.79%) was the worst performing. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The morning started with a pullback in the markets but then the indexes, including the Nasdaq rallied back to yesterday’s highs after better than expected employment data. It was not a stellar day of gains like the previous three days, but it was a good pause to cool off from one of the hottest weeks since April. The index ended the day with a +0.04% gain and a +9.01% gain for the week. The candle has a high tight body of 14% and a closing range of 86%. The bulls win the day, but any gains were focused to a smaller slice of the market. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks at a 3 to 2 ratio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -0.03%), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -0.24%) turned in minor losses while the Russell 2000 (RUT -0.96%) fell back from stellar gains the previous day. The S&P500 chart shows a doji candlestick, which can be a sign of reversal. Given the huge gains this week, I view it as showing a pause and possibly sideways move in the near term, especially given other indicators we look at. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.46%) was the top sector of the day while Technology (XLK +0.35%) was not far behind. Materials (XLB +0.25%) slowed a bit but continues an uptrend powered by an increase in commodities prices. Energy (XLE -0.64%) started the day on the top, opening with a 1.4% gain, but quickly came back down and ended the day at the bottom of the sector list. The VIX volatility index decreased -9.86% and continued to trade in the late September and October range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds Treasury Bond yields increased for the day and the 10Y-2Y and 30Y-10Y spread increased after a few days of declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the big four mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT +0.19%) ended the days with gains although it did take a round-trip to fill the gap from Wednesday to Thursday. Apple (AAPL -0.29%), Amazon (-0.32%) and Google (GOOG -0.09%) had losses. Apple successfully tested its 50d MA. Apple and Google had intraday positive moves relative to the market. Growth stocks had mixed results. Square (SQ +13.04%) was a big winner after beating earnings expectations and showing opportunity for more growth. Cloudflare (NET +11.16%) got a boost from their earnings beat, gaining over 20% at one point in the day before settling at 11.16% gains. UBER (UBER +6.94%) is also up after earnings. Dr. Horton (DHI -3.15%) had a second day of losses as it heads into earnings next week. Zynga (ZNGA -4.64%) continued to retreat despite having beat expectations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Not much economic news is scheduled for Monday, although we will have more updates on the election over the weekend. McDonald’s (MCD +0.12%) and Beyond Meat (BYND -0.11%) are among some of the earnings releases scheduled for Monday. Not sure if the two will show any impact after the relationship ended in June, but it certainly makes me hungry for a burger (the real kind). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The six-day trend from the 10/30 bottom and five-day trend are both pointing to an aggressive +3.14% gain which would make new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. Following the one-day trend would result in a more modest +1.02% gain that would take the index past the 10/12 pivot which is a resistance area for now. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot is slowly changing its slope but still points at -5.41% loss. That is not likely to happen unless some negative news changes the market context. The more likely point, if a significant pull back occurs, would be above the October Support area and the 21d EMA which would be a -3.31% loss. It seems we are clear of the July support area for the time being. Breaking through that support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. That area is now well below today’s close and as we approach new highs, I will remove it from the daily notes. I hope you have a safe and relaxing weekend. Get yourself mentally prepared for another week of unexpected positive or negative moves as the election roles on.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 11/4Trend lines drawn from the 10/12 pivot day (18d), 10/29 (5d), and today 11/4 (1d). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, November 4, 2020 You shake my nerves and you rattle my brain Facts: +3.85% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 73%, Body: 55% Good: Held near top of the range, back above 21d EMA, 50d MA and support areas Bad: Gap up could, swing the other way to cover gap Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Bullish candle after a gap up, upper wick slightly longer Advance/Decline: 1.16, About same amount of advancers and decliners Sectors: Health (XLV +4.44%), Communication Services (XLC +4.31%), Technology (XLK +3.89%) were at the top. Industrials (XLI -1.03%), Financials (XLF -1.17%), Utilities (XLU -1.50%) and Materials (XLB -1.70%) were all losers. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview What a difference a day can make. The Nasdaq reacted sharply to a turn in sentiment toward election results when it became apparent the “Blue wave” would not happen as originally thought. Even as the presidential election remains undecided, it seems that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate, putting a damper on any radical changes in the near-term. The index responded with a gap up and turned in a +3.85% gain on a 12% increase in volume. The candle is a nice thick bullish green with a 55% body and a 73% closing range. Declining stocks were about the same amount as Advancing stocks representing the rotation for previous bets that investors were making on election. This is the highest high the Nasdaq turned in since October 19, and closing the index back above the key levels of the 21d EMA and the 50d MA as well as the September and October support levels marked on the chart. It is reasonable to expect some pullback, but hopefully we can hold above these levels, adding strength to a new rally. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX +2.21%), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI +1.35%) did not do as well as the Nasdaq but did turn in decent gains. The Russell 2000 (RUT +0.05%) was left behind a bit as investors shifted back to larger capital businesses. The S&P 500 closed above its 50d MA while the DJI remains just below this key line. Health (XLV +4.48%), Communication Services (XLC +4.30%), Technology (XLK +3.89%) were the top sectors, which would benefit from at least a mixed party government, if not a Republican president. Industrials (XLI -1.03%), Financials (XLF -1.17%), Utilities (XLU -1.50%) and Materials (XLB -1.70%) were all losers. All of these losing sectors were doing very well ahead of the election, with expectations of the “blue wave” result. The VIX volatility index decreased -16.57% putting it back in the late September and October range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds Treasury Bond yields decreased on the day, as investors bought up the bonds in wake of changed expectations. The 10Y-2Y yield spread had a pullback but is still within an upward channel. I will keep an eye on this one over the next few days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The mega-cap stocks did well except for large Financial stocks. The big four all had great gains. Microsoft (MSFT +4.82%), Google (GOOG +5.99%) and Amazon (AMZN +6.32%) are all trading above their 50d MA and 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL +4.08%) is above the 21d EMA and heading toward the 50d MA. They all have relative candles showing strength compared to the index. That is the type of strength that is needed to put energy into a rally. I will keep watching for these four to continue leading the market higher. There was broad support for favorite growth stocks, with many having big gains on the day. Facebook (FB +8.32%), Datadog (DDOG +8.30%), PayPal (PYPL +8.05%), JD.com (JD +8.01%) are a few of the big winners of the day. Paycom (PAYC +7.66%) is up another 4% after hours after announcing earnings beat expectations. Zynga (ZNGA +3.79%) missed estimates in their earnings release and is down -1.26% after hours. That is a lot less punishment than expectation misses in recent earnings announcements. Uber (UBER +14.59%) had a huge gain after winning legislation that will allow them to continue using contract drivers in California. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will bring new Initial Jobless Claims data, following a less than expected change in ADP Nonfarm Employment data. It will be important to watch the employment data closely after the pandemic hits new heights. In the afternoon, the Fed will announce any changes in interest rates. The expectation for interest rates is to remain unchanged based on earlier messages from the Fed. Cloudflare (NET +5.79%), Peloton (PTON +6.28%), Alibaba (BABA +3.55%), Square (SQ +8.27%), and Uber are all popular growth stocks that have earnings announcements scheduled for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance There are three trend lines pointing to quite different spots on the chart. The first is the one-day trend that points to another +0.93% gain. That feels nearly sideways given the past two days of gains and cooling off a bit would be good for the market. Likewise, the 5-day trend points to a -0.89% that is also sideways in the context of two days of big gains. A -0.89% pullback would not even touch the gap from this morning. The trend from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -5.10% loss. Unless sentiment changes dramatically, that does not seem likely for tomorrow. I will add another trend line from the 10/30 bottom for the next update. It seems we are clear of the July support area for the time being. Breaking through that support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. That area is now -12.56% below today’s close and I will remove the possibility of that outcome if we hold above support for the next few days. Continue to be prepared for unexpected moves over the next few days as the election unknowns are resolved. The last few days have been wildly outside any expectations I have had in this section.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 11/3Trend lines drawn from the 10/12 pivot day (17d), 10/28 (5d), and today 11/3 (1d). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, November 3, 2020 Stand straight, walk proud ‘Cause we shall be free Facts: +1.85% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 74%, Red Body: 58% Good: Bulls led the day, and held near the day’s highs Bad: Couldn’t break through 11,300 area Highs/Lows: Higher low, higher high Candle: Thick green body with a slightly longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 3.78, Almost 4 advancers for every decliner Sectors: Industrials (XLI +2.95%), Financials (XLF +2.22%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.20%) were at top. Energy (XLE -0.57%) was the only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It is finally Election Day! And the day brought the pleasant surprise of a positive expectation breaker for the Nasdaq. Yesterday’s trend lines and the indecisive candle pointed to losses for today, but it is good to be wrong sometimes. I set my expectations for the next day, but always be prepared for a break from those expectations, especially during these uncertain times. The Nasdaq gained +1.85% today, climbing to just under the September resistance area of 11,300. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day. The index closed at a 74% closing range after developing a 58% green body. There were nearly four advancers for every declining stock. That is all good signal in the market. There is still some work for the Nasdaq to show strength, focusing on getting past the high of 10/29 at 11287.63, showing a breakout from Wednesday’s severe drop. Right now, it is still trading within the range of the previous four days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX +1.78%), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI +2.06%) and Russell 2000 (RUT +2.91%) also had significant gains today. The Russell 2000 gains show the continued investment in small cap stocks. These indexes all broke above the trading range of the past four days, which is a good sign of strength. Industrials (XLI +2.95%) led the sectors for the day, followed closely by Financials (XLF +2.22%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.20%). All of these sectors would benefit from a stimulus, especially under a Biden presidency. Energy (XLE -0.57%) was the losing sector of the day, and the only sector to finish with losses. The Energy sector is not expected to benefit from a Biden presidency. If you look at the market to predict the election outcome, this is consistent to what it’s been pricing in recently. Keep in mind the old saying "to buy the rumor and sell the news." The VIX volatility index decreased -4.26% continuing it’s decent from last week’s high, but is still well above the 200d moving average. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds Treasury Bond spreads increased for the day. The 30Y-10Y spread is starting to form a downward trend but is still well off the pivot low in late July. Not a concern right now but will continue to watch. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders With few exceptions, mega-caps had a great day. The big four, Apple (AAPL +1.54%), Microsoft (MSFT +2.03%), Google (GOOG +1.49%) and Amazon (AMZN +1.46%) all had good gains today. Only Google is trading above it is key 21d EMA and 50d MA line. Expect the other three to have some resistance at these lines if they continue to approach them over the next few days. Also, looking at the relative candle, you can see only Microsoft (MSFT) started higher and moved higher than the overall index. It would be better if they were all moving up in a bullish way, giving the market more energy to rise from a bottom. Among other growth stocks, there were mostly positive gains. A few exceptions include Solar Edge (SEDG -22.92%) which disappointed on earnings and PayPal (PYPL -4.23%) which provided lower guidance for the coming fourth quarter. Wayfair (W +7.23%) had a great day after smashing expectations on earnings announced before the market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead It is hard to even look past tonight, as much will depend on the outcome of the election and the candidate’s reaction to the outcome. Tomorrow will bring updates on Employment data before market open and Crude Oil Inventories data at 10:30a. Several companies will be reporting earnings tomorrow including Hilton (HLT +3.01%) and Expedia (EXPE +4.31%) which will give visibility on how business and leisure travel are doing. Qualcomm (QCOM +1.19%), Baidu (BIDU +0.04%), Zynga (ZNGA +2.59%) and Paycom (PAYC +2.37%) are among some of the other important earnings announcements for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance A continuation of today’s trend line would lead to a +0.53% increase for tomorrow and land the index just below the September resistance area of 11,300. With some additional energy, it could break through that area, but expect that it will pause there before further gains. Looking at the other trend lines, the trend from the 10/12 pivot day would point to a -2.19% loss tomorrow. That is lower then the 5-day trend which has been flattening since last Wednesday and Friday big losses. Putting more distance in between the index and the July support area is a good thing. Breaking through this support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. I kept in view the future possibility of reaching the June support area, a -9.20% loss from today’s close. Continue to be prepared for unexpected moves over the next few days as the election unknowns are resolved and the market starts to absorb the news.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 11/2Trend lines drawn the 10/12 pivot day (16d), 10/27 (5d), and today 11/2 (1d). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 2, 2020 R.O.C.K in the U.S.A. Facts: +0.42% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 53%, Red Body: 22% Good: Stayed above Friday’s low, late day uptrend Bad: Indecision/continuation candle Highs/Lows: Higher low, lower high Candle: Inside day, with a short body, longer lower wick than upper wick Advance/Decline: 2.05, 2 advancers for every decliner Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.41%), Materials (XLB +3.32%) were top, Communications (XLC -0.05%) was bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The first day of November starts off with some more choppy market action as the Nasdaq started in the positive, went negative and then back to positive by the end of the day. It was good that the index came up off afternoon lows, but it could just barely get back to the midpoint of the morning highs. The index ended up +0.42% on lower volume. The candle is an inside day with a thin 22% body and 53% closing range, not providing a clear winner of bulls or bears. There were 2 advancing stocks for every declining stock, which underperformed the broader market which had a 3:1 ratio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX +1.23%), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI +1.60%) and Russell 2000 (RUT +1.96%) had much more positive days. However, they are all still trading within the highs and lows of the final three days of last week. Energy (XLK +3.41%) and Materials (XLB +3.32%) led the mostly positive day for sectors. Energy was lowest at open, but quickly moved to the top. Communications (XLC -0.05%) and Technology (XLK +0.25%) were at the bottom of the list, continuing to cool off from gains in recent months. The VIX volatility index decreased -2.34% but still closing near the highs of September. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds Treasury Bond spreads decreased for the day. The 30Y-10Y spread is starting to form a downward trend but is still well off the pivot low in late July. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Mega-caps had mixed results. The big four ended the day with losses, except for Google (GOOG +0.31%). Apple (AAPL -0.08%) and Microsoft (MSFT -0.07%) had minor losses while the Amazon (AMZN -1.04%) loss was a little more severe. Only Google is trading above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Facebook (FB -0.67%) had a wild day, bouncing off the 100d MA which is where it maintained support in September. Beyond the mega-caps, there is still some rotation among growth stocks. Pinterest (PINS -0.97%) is down, Snap (SNAP +3.55%) is up. DataDog (DDOG -2.67%) and ServiceNow (NOW-4.34%) are down while FVRR (+3.38%) and Fastly (FSLY +2.52%) are up. Solar Edge (SEDG +3.89%) is down 20% after hours on lower-than-expected sales results. PayPal (PYPL +0.88%) is down 6% after hours on a poor fourth quarter outlook, despite beating expectations for third quarter. Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ +2.19%) is up 10% after hours after beating expectations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow is the big election day. It could be a very choppy back and forth day as early news, true, false or otherwise is broadcast. There are quite a few earnings reports that will be released prior to the market opening including Wayfair (W +3.07%), Johnson Controls (JCI +4.10%), and Fox Corp (FOXA +3.32%). Fewer after market due to the election. There is not much economic news on the calendar for tomorrow other than the Presidential Election. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The three trend lines I’m using are all pointing to losses for tomorrow. The better of the two is the trend line from the 10/12 pivot day which points to a -0.35% loss. The five day and one day trend both point to about the same spot at -2.18% loss. That’s just above the July support area and just narrowly below a parallel channel drawn from 10/12. Breaking through this July support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. I have added back the future possibility of reaching the June support area, a -7.55% loss from today’s close. This downward trend seems to be how the market is heading into the election on Tuesday. Following tomorrow, we could finally see a turn for the better.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
6
Early Warning SystemI've scripted my own early warning indicator. This system has provided very accurate warning signals the last few years as to where potential tops were forming. There are several occasions where it detected changes weeks or even months ahead of trend changes. Occasionally, it's a little too early at providing these signals. I can't reveal all my secrets but I was able to use data provided in TradingView that measures true investor sentiment and implied volatility. It also provides decent confirmational bullish/long signals, but it really depends on the type of market that we're in. Pre-2017, bearish signals were flattened and mostly ignored as the market rocketed higher.. I'll continue tracking this going forward and at least use it to assist my other forecasts - just another tool in my toolbox. My current view of the market is not good. If you follow my updates, you'll know that I've been warning people about this drop and zone of volatility. Check out my other updates on the markets as well as the vix. I think it's likely to continue the next couple of months. However, take a look at the indicator and how the avg. is slanting upwards (green circle). This could be signaling a bounce in the market...but will it be like Feb of this year where we made a higher high in the market before the death drop? I have some long exposure as a strangle for such an event, but have been net short since end of August. I don't need to explain to you how the market is currently retarded in light of the fundamental picture. I'm not calling for a great depression-like melt-down yet.. We could see a lot of volatility the next few months but it may be just another opportunity to go long the market. I'll be here to provide all of the most accurate data I can for you.
SP:SPX
by gghsusa
18
Nasdaq Week In Review - 10/26/2020 - 10/30/2020 The Nasdaq Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a larger view on the past week What's coming in the next week Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, October 26, 2020 Hold tight, we're in for nasty weather Burning down the house Facts: -1.64% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 42%, Red Body: -25% Good: Support at the end of the day, brought the index back over 50d MA Bad: Everything else, gap down, closed below the 21d EMA and took a visit below the 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: A large body for a spinning top , but nonetheless shows clearer the action from bears and bulls. Advance/Decline: 0.23, more than 4 decliners for every advancer Sectors: All sectors down with Utilities ( XLU ) performing best, holding to a -0.03% loss. Energy ( XLE ) was the worst sector with a -3.59%, erasing gains from last week. Keeping an eye on Technology ( XLK ) this week, it’s near the middle of the sector list with a -2.17% loss and underperforming the SPX . Expectation: Sideways Well, crap. Welcome to Monday. News over the weekend reset expectations coming into the morning, but there was still hope that support would firm up and it initially did that as the market opened, coming close to Friday’s high. Then the reversal, 30 minutes into trading, came after New Home Sales data disappointed and it was a long slide from there. At 1:30p, the Nasdaq was down nearly 3% and below the key 50d MA support line. At that point, the bulls came in and brought it back to end the day with a -1.64% loss. The candle looks like a spinning top , albeit a fat one, with a 25% red body and a 42% closing range. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Volume was slightly higher than Friday, but still well below recent average volume . The index closed below the 21d EMA for the first time since 9/25. The S&P500 had a slightly different character with no morning gains. It was all downhill most of the day, with some buying in the afternoon to finish at -1.86% loss. All sectors finished with a loss, but Utilities ( XLU ) held up the best with only a -0.03% loss. This has been the safe haven sector for investors to stay in the market, instead of going to bonds or commodities . Health ( XLV -1.11%), Consumer Staples ( XLP -1.28%), Real Estate ( XLRE -1.21%) all outperformed the broader index. The first two likely because of pandemic news and the third benefiting from the drop in new home sales ( XLRE is dominated by management companies, that benefit from less demand and cheaper prices in real estate). The Russell 2000 (RUT -2.15%) wiped away all gains from the previous week, performing almost as bad as the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -2.29%). Treasury Bond spreads shrunk but remained in an upward channel from the last few weeks. The mega-caps had a mixed day. Microsoft ( MSFT -2.84%) closed well below it’s 50d MA line, likely being impacted by SAP (SAP -23.16%) that revised guidance downward over the weekend, sending a signal there may be trouble in enterprise software. Google ( GOOG -3.08%) gave up about half of it’s gains from last week. Apple ( AAPL +0.01%) and Amazon ( AMZN +0.08%) faired a bit better, ending the day with small gains, although both are holding below key indicators of 21d EMA and 50d MA. The storied stock from last week, Snap (SNAP -4.40%) finally gave up some profits, while there was a lot of carnage with other growth stocks. There were some positive stories among growth stocks. Deckers Outdoor (DECK +2.58%), Shopify (SHOP +1.15%), ZScaler (ZS +1.33%), Zoom Video (ZM +1.23%), Wayfair (W +2.07%) all had good days while the market was struggling. Microsoft ( MSFT ) and AMD ( AMD ) earnings after close tomorrow. Core Durable Goods Orders data comes in before market and Consumer Confidence data at 10:00am. I’ll start with the positive trend lines , although I think some sideways action is in order after a negative expectation breaker day. Nonetheless, unexpected news can help put some positive gains in the market. With enough energy, the index could find its way back to the correction regression trend line (which is still on an upward slope) and the trend from the 9/24 bottom. That would be an unlikely +3.30% gain. The index landed below the 21d EMA , but above the 50d MA. This provides both a resistance and support point that points to a sideways move. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day, points to a -0.40% loss that keeps the index within this channel. The one day trend points to more losses and would result in -2.50% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, October 27, 2020 You shake my nerves and you rattle my brain Facts: +0.64% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 67%, Green Body: +21% Good: Upward trend most of the day, staying above the 50d MA Bad: Could not stay above the 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low, inside day Candle: An inside day with a small green body, nearly identical upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.63, 3:2 decliners to advancers Sectors: Communications ( XLC ) and Technology ( XLK ) performed best. All other sectors lost, with Industrials ( XLI ) and Financials ( XLF ) performing worst. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The follow-up to a terrible Monday was an inside day with gains in the Nasdaq while the rest of the market continued to melt down among mixed signals from a positive Durable Goods report, but an unexpected dip in Consumer Confidence. The Nasdaq ended the day up +0.64% higher, driven by big tech and hot communications sector stocks. The day was a bit choppy, but the overall channel for the day was upward. The index poked above its 21d EMA four times but settled at the end of the day just below the key line. The candle is inside the highs and lows of the previous day which typically is a continuation (vs a reversal). Keeping that in mind, it did close in the 67% range of the candle with a green 21% body. There were many more declining stocks than advancing stocks at a ratio of 3:2 (the ratio is worse in the broader NYSE). Volume was lower and continues to be much lower than recent average volume . The index closed below the 21d EMA , but above the 50d MA, both key lines that investors commonly watch. The S&P500 ( SPX -0.30%) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -0.80%), had decidedly bearish inside days, spending most of the day trading below their 50d MA. The Russell 2000 (RUT -0.90%) also had another loss, falling below the 21d EMA . Communication Services ( XLC +0.64%) was the best sector of the day, driven by gains from Facebook ( FB +2.23%) and Google ( GOOG +0.87%). Technology ( XLK +0.50%) sector also had a great day but was driven mostly by the larger stocks Apple ( AAPL +1.35%) and Microsoft ( MSFT +1.51%). All other sectors lost on the day with Industrial ( XLI -2.19%) and Financial ( XLF -1.83%) sectors ending the day with the worst performance. Utilities ( XLU -0.08%) had early gains and topped the sector list at times, then faded near close. The VIX volatility index increased +2.74% for another gain on top of Monday's surge. The key indicator is now up over 20% for the week and nearing the early September highs. Treasury Bond spreads shrunk for another day. This is something to keep an eye on, but the spread is still in an upward trend channel from an August pivot . The real winners of the day were the mega-caps. Microsoft ( MSFT +1.51%), Apple ( AAPL +1.35%), Google ( GOOG +0.87%), Amazon ( AMZN +2.47%), Tesla ( TSLA +1.05%) and Facebook ( FB +2.23%) all turned in solid gains for the day. Microsoft and Apple still closed below their 21d EMA , but Amazon regained this key support to join Google above the line. Facebook has a nice base forming heading into earnings . Beyond the mega-caps, the performance is mixed among favorite growth stocks. Dexcom ( DXCM -8.94%), Draft Kings ( DKNG +2.49%), Workhorse Group ( WKHS -6.91%), AMD (-4.07%) were among the losers. Pinterest (PINS +4.08%), Etsy ( ETSY +4.33%), Peloton (PTON +2.58%) and Datadog ( DDOG +1.57%) were some of the winners. Notice these lists of winners and losers among the favorite growth stocks is rotating at an accelerated space. Microsoft ( MSFT ) and AMD ( AMD ) reported earnings with Microsoft down -1.71% and AMD up +0.34% in afterhours trading, despite both beating expectations. Tomorrow’s reports will include Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V), Boeing (BA), and ServiceNow (NOW) which will all be significant, with several reporting before market open. In economic news, Crude Oil Inventories will be announced at 10:30a. Continuing today’s trend direction would result in a +0.34% gain tomorrow, taking the index back above the 21d EMA and signaling some recovery from the recent downtrend. Better news from stimulus talks or coronavirus treatments could accelerate that to meet up with the longer trend lines at +2.45%. The index is still trading below the 21d EMA and above the 50d MA which seems to be a channel for now. In addition, there is a channel that formed from the 10/12 pivot day with a well-defined upper and lower channel line. Following the channel and the regression trend from the 10/12 pivot day as well as the 5d trend, would mean a -0.99% loss and land the index right above the 50d MA. I'm keeping the June Support line in view, but its ~12.5% below the Tuesday close and there are 3 key support levels that the index would have to break thru. If we have a significant downside that takes the index below 11,300 again, then I'll add that possibility back to the chart. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, October 28, 2020 Let down and hanging around Crushed like a bug in the ground Facts: -3.73% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Red Body: -90% Good: Nothing Bad: Gap down, deep red candle, ending at the days lows, broke below 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower low, lower high Candle: Very tiny wicks on either side of a fat red body Advance/Decline: 0.16, 6 decliners for every one advancer Sectors: All sectors down, Real Estate ( XLRE -2.22%) and Financials ( XLF -2.56%) held up best. Expectation: Lower Market Overview The day was not so much of a surprise but still hurts for a bull in the market. Sure, there were hopes for a bounce off the 50d MA or bulls coming in at the end of the day to buy the dip. But none of that happened. The Nasdaq finished down -3.73%, well below the 50d MA and testing the round number area of 11,000. Round number support is created by the tendency for investors to pick big round numbers as buy/sell triggers. The candle has a huge 90% red body with tiny wicks on top and bottom and a dismal 2% closing range. There were many more declining stocks than advancing stocks at a 6:1 to ratio with the broader NYSE seeing a 10:1 ratio. Volume on the Nasdaq had a huge 28.4% increase over the previous day and is above average volume for the past 50 days. Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 ( SPX -3.53%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI -3.43%) indexes also saw big losses on increased volume . The Dow Jones Industrial went below September lows. The Russell 2000 (RUT -2.98%) faired slightly better, but still saw big losses. All sectors were losers with Real Estate (XLR -2.22%) and Financials ( XLF -2.56%) holding up the best. Technology ( XLK -4.24%) was the worst sector of the day. Communication Services ( XLC -3.93%) and Energy ( XLE -4.18%) also underperformed the SPX index, with Energy having some positive gains after Crude Oil Inventories were announced, but later selling off. Utilities ( XLU -2.91%) was strongest in morning trading, before giving up to the excessive selling. The VIX volatility index increased a whopping +20.78% to add to the weeks gains which are now at 46.21% and exceeding the volatility highs of September. Bonds Treasury Bond spreads stayed about the same as the previous day. This is something to keep an eye on, but the spread is still in an upward trend channel from an August pivot . Market Leaders The mega-caps were all impacted by the selling with Microsoft ( MSFT -4.96%), Apple ( AAPL -4.63%), Google ( GOOG -5.46%), Amazon ( AMZN -3.76%) all dropping significantly. All of them closed below their 50d MA. Add Tesla ( TSLA -4.29%), Facebook ( FB -5.51%) and every other company over 200B market cap to that list. Not even one was spared. On the other hand, there were some bright spots elsewhere in the market. Chewy ( CHWY +6.33%) continued its breakout despite the heavy selling. Twilio ( TWLO +3.73%) finally got some credit for a good earnings report after selling earlier this week. Pinterest (PINS -6.23%) turned a big loss into huge >30% gains after the market closed thanks to their earnings report. Looking ahead to Tomorrow Tomorrow is the week’s big day with an enormous number of companies announcing quarterly earnings including Google , Amazon, Apple , Facebook , Starbucks ( SB -3.30%) after market close. Shopify (SHOP -5.19%) will release earnings before market open. The big economic news tomorrow will include the Gross Domestic Product. It is expected to show a record amount of growth but remember that this quarter will follow the worst quarter in history, and it is not an indicator of future economic activity. Any initial excitement in the market on this data alone, would certainly sell off without additional reasons to support gains. Trends, Support and Resistance For trend lines and expectation circles, I’ve grayed out the trend lines from the 9/3 correction start and the 9/24 bottom. These trend lines have lost significance against the current trend lines , and I’ll remove them in the next update. However, the trend from the 10/12 pivot day (which becomes the top in the current wave), and the 5d trend provide for the possibility of a +1.56% gain tomorrow. This would put the index just below September resistance area that held prices down in early October. Continuing today’s trend which was mostly flat after the initial sell-off would mean a -0.49% loss tomorrow and would break through the 11,000 round number resistance. Beyond the trend lines , there are two support areas to watch for. The first is at 10,600 which is where we found the bottom of 10,519.49 in September. Breaking through this area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. I have added back the future possibility of reaching that line. An additional -8.18% loss to that area feels within the realm of possible outcomes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, October 29, 2020 It's something unpredictable But in the end is right I hope you had the time of your life Facts: +1.65% lower, Volume lower, Closing range: 60%, Green Body: 47% Good: Traded above yesterday’s low, fat green bullish body Bad: Selling at end of day after 50d MA resistance Highs/Lows: Higher low, higher high Candle: Thick green body, majority in lower part of candle, long top wick Advance/Decline: 1.85, about 2 advancers for every decliner Sectors: Energy ( XLE +3.07%), Communications ( XLC +2.25%) were top, Health ( XLV -0.82%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways Market Overview It was a reasonably good day following the sell-off on Wednesday. The Nasdaq finished up +1.64% after tempting itself with the 50d MA and September Resistance line. Volume was lower, returning to the recent levels that have represented the wait-and-see level of activity in the market, well below the 50d average volume . The candle has a 47% green body with a 60% closing range which is good considering the bounce from yesterday but also shows not everyone is back in the game yet. Breadth was ok with two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 ( SPX +1.19%) had a similar day with gains on lower volume that somewhat dropped back at the end of the day. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI +0.52%) had lower highs and lower lows, putting them further below their key moving averages with the 21d EMA slipping below the 50d MA. Energy ( XLE +3.07%) and Communication Services ( XLC +2.52%) were the best performing sectors with Energy passing Communications in the last 30 minutes of trading. Keeping an eye on Technology ( XLK +1.67%), it had decent gains today ahead of some important earnings announcements. Consumer Staples ( XLP -0.03%) and Health ( XLV -0.82%) were the only two sectors with losses. The VIX volatility index finally took a step back, losing -6.68%, but the close remains above the September numbers. Bonds Treasury Bond spreads increased for the day. The spreads are in an upward trend channel from an August pivot . Market Leaders The mega-caps all faired well after yesterday’s selling. Apple ( AAPL +3.71%), Amazon ( AMZN +1.52%) Microsoft ( MSFT +1.01%) and Google ( GOOG +3.34%) had significant gains as did the majority of mega cap companies. Pinterest (PINS +26.92%) followed up great earnings with a huge gain, trying to keep up with rival Snap (SNAP -1.49%) which had is starting to build a base after the huge gains from last week. Lots of growth stocks had good gains on the day. Shopify (SHOP -4.84%) and Spotify (SPOT -3.36%) retreated heading into earnings . So let’s talk about earnings . All of the big tech companies that released earnings reports today, beat expectations. Apple , Google , Amazon, Facebook all had good reports compared to expectations, yet except for Google they sold off in after hours. The same story played out for Shopify. Spotify missed slightly but had great customer adds data. Apple had higher revenue but low performance in China and no guidance. The market, not willing to stomach that, sold off AAPL over -4% in after hours. Facebook is down -2.88% after market, Amazon is down -1.81%. This is also a continuation of earnings beats earlier in the week that have seen losses in the stock price. Investors are looking for the extremely good beats and expectations like the ones we saw from Snap and Pinterest. Looking ahead to Tomorrow Tomorrow will be a big day for Energy as Exxon Mobile ( XOM +4.43%) and Chevron ( CVX +2.87%) will announce earnings before market open. In addition, a plethora of other large cap companies will report before market open. Employment Wages and Personal Consumption Expenditures aren’t expected to have much impact in the context to this week’s other economic indicators and impact of earnings reactions. We already know people are spending more while earning less based on other economic indicators. Trends, Support and Resistance As I stated in yesterday’s update, I removed the trend lines from 9/3 and 9/24 which were having less and less relevance since we pivoted on 10/12 and are approaching the lows of September. For tomorrow, the one day trend line would point to a +2.30% gain that breaks back above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA that often act as support or resistance. Continuing the trend from the 10/12 pivot day as well ad the last five days would result in a -1.06% drop . This is where the trend line points to, but it’s reasonable to believe a continued loss for Friday and into Monday that would take us to the 10,600 support level . Breaking through this area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. I have added back the future possibility of reaching that line, a -9.41% loss from today’s close. This downward trend seems to be how the market is heading into the election on Tuesday. Following Tuesday, we could finally see a turn for the better. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 30, 2020 If there's somethin' strange in your neighborhood Who ya gonna call? Facts: -2.45% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 29%, Red Body: 62% Good: Not much, small uptick at end of day Bad : Lower low Highs/Lows: Lower low, lower high Candle: Thick green body, majority in lower part of candle, long top wick Advance/Decline: 1.85, about 2 advancers for every decliner Sectors: Energy ( XLE +3.07%), Communications ( XLC +2.25%) were top, Health ( XLV -0.82%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways Market Overview The market sold off heavily on Friday after a big day of earnings releases that did not meet the demands of investors who were already nervous from the resurging pandemic and the pending turmoil from next week’s election. There is not much to look at on the good side other than the pullbacks will eventually create new opportunities. The index fell -2.45% in Friday’s session, with an increase in volume as investors sold off equities before the weekend. There was a slight uptick at the end of the day as bulls came in for low priced opportunities, with focus on Energy and Finance sectors. The candle has a long 62% body with a short lower wick from the last few minutes of buying, ending with a 29% closing range. There were about 2.5 declining stocks for every advancing stock. Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 ( SPX -1.21%) did not lose as much as the Nasdaq but still saw selling on higher volume . All the indexes turned out lower highs and lower lows to end the worst week for equity markets since March. Energy ( XLK +0.56%) and Financials ( XLF +0.26%) were the only sectors with positive numbers. Technology ( XLK -2.21%) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY -2.18%) shared the bottom of the sector list, with those sectors driving the broader market sell off. Although having many bright spots throughout the week, Communication Services ( XLC -1.69) also had significant losses on Friday. The VIX volatility index increased +1.14% to close the week 38% higher than the previous week and well above September numbers. Bonds Treasury Bond spreads increased for the day. The spreads are in an upward trend channel from an August pivot . No worries from that perspective. Market Leaders Google ( GOOG +3.43%) was the only of the big four mega-caps to have gains. Apple ( AAPL -5.60%) and Amazon ( AMZN -5.45%) both had huge losses after their earnings releases, while Microsoft ( MSFT -1.10%) did not do too bad given the market condition. Each has a bit of a different profile of trading during the day. Google gaped up at market open but then sold throughout the day losing some of the early gains. Microsoft dipped over 3% but was bought back later in the day. Apple followed or drove the market, depending on how you view it, trading almost exactly along the same path. Facebook ( FB -6.31%), Snap (SNAP -6.70%), and Pinterest (PINS -5.70%) soared the past two weeks but gave back some ground on Friday. Most growth stocks did not fair well. Chevron ( CVX +1.02%) and Exxon Mobile ( XOM -1.06%) had opposite reactions after morning earnings reports. Both continued struggling with revenue while Chevron seems to be managing costs better. Looking ahead Next week is the big week that will both answer questions and create new questions. Who will win the election and what impact will that have on the market longer term? Will there be a smooth end to the process, or will the candidates start a long battle to contest the results? Can congress resume discussions for a stimulus or will we have to wait until transitions to new leadership in government? Beyond the election, we will get updates on Manufacturing data early in the week and the Fed is scheduled to announce any interest rate changes on Thursday. Trends, Support and Resistance Since we are in between two support and resistance areas, there is room to move in either direction on Monday. Getting back to the midpoint trend line from the 10/12 pivot would mean a +0.90% gain. That seems a reasonable move after the uptick at today’s close and without any big context changes over the weekend. On the downside, the one-day and five-day trend lines point to about the same place which is a -1.11% loss. The lower trend line is just above the July support area and still within a parallel channel drawn from 10/12. Breaking through this support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. I have added back the future possibility of reaching the June support area , a -7.21% loss from today’s close. This downward trend seems to be how the market is heading into the election on Tuesday. Following Tuesday, we could finally see a turn for the better. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (Larger View on the Week) It was another tough week, especially if you are bullish growth investor. There were so many things that could have gone well, from positive earnings beats to the good economic news. But nothing, not even the over the top performance of Social Media stocks (Snap, Pinterest, Facebook, Twitter) could hold up through the week. The Nasdaq fell through several key support areas including the 50d moving average, a line that is often watched as a sign of health for markets. The week started with a negative expectation breaker, smashing hopes formed from the previous Thursday and Friday character changes. More lockdowns, election uncertainty and finally some economic news that did not meet expectations, was too much for the market to hold. That began the back and forth that often occurs as we pivot toward correction territory. Tuesday up, Wednesday down, Thursday up, Friday down. The index closed on Friday for a -5.51% weekly loss, the worst week since March. Investors Business Daily, a great site with market updates for CANSLIM investors, moved quickly from Confirmed uptrend early in the week, to Uptrend under Pressure, until finally marking the Correction on Friday. Hopefully, you all had a chance to raise cash, hedge your investments and move to the sidelines, or to an alternative trading strategy for correcting markets. US Treasury Yield spreads largely not impacted by the stock market performance. Yields are still so low that investors are not exiting the equities market. It was a long painful week for all the sectors with the overall S&P 500 index losing -5.64%, worst since March of this year. Utilities ( XLU ) topped the list of sectors "only" losing -3.66% and remained as the safe place for investors to go to stay into equities instead of the alternatives. There were certainly days that each sector had to shine, but as far as the week-to-date performance, there was not a lot of back and forth as the days progressed in the weekly list of sector winners/losers. Most sectors beat the overall S&P 500 index. The exception is Technology ( XLK ), Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) and Industrials ( XLI ). Consumer Discretionary just barely beat out Industrials to be the week's loser at a -6.55% loss. In addition to the indexes and the sectors, it is also important to look at how the market leaders are behaving. Each of the big four mega-caps had a different character for the week. Apple (AAPL) came into the week already trending down with the fast moving 21d EMA below the slower 50d MA and widening that gap by the end of the week. Microsoft (MSFT) started the week with the 21d EMA above the 50d MA but investors did not respond well to the guidance in the earnings announcements, gaping down on Wednesday. Amazon (AMZN) was holding up pretty well, looking to form a base and possibly a breakout, but could not overcome the market and investors demands for better performance. Google (GOOG) on the other hand, bucked the trend, coming into the week with the 21d EMA below the 50d MA and leaving the week with huge gains thanks to better than expected recovery in the online advertising business. To me, that shows that investors were not in a sell-everything fear mode this week. There was still some discriminate choices of equities to put money into. That does not mean those stocks will not sell off next week, but it certainly sheds some hope and tells us to keep our eyes on the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead We just came out of a hugely pivotal and impactful week, full of earnings reports and economic news. Next week will be no less important. The biggest event being the election. There will be a lot of uncertainty on Monday and Tuesday in the market. If the early election results are definitive, there’s hope for some stabilization after Tuesday. More likely, there is going to be more drama to come and that will continue the back-and-forth market we have been experiencing the past few weeks. There is hope that stimulus talks will continue and that a deal will be struck, but there is also a lot of nervousness about how the leaders in the Whitehouse and in Congress will act after the election. In addition to that, we’ll have updates on Manufacturing economic data and the Fed is scheduled to update on any interest rate changes on Thursday. The expectation is they will hold to the plan of no interest rate changes. The next week will be a pivotal one for where the market goes next. The questions for the indexes will be whether they can continue the character change from Thursday and Friday and turn that into gains early in the week. They are still testing key support areas and the 21d EMA , often used by investors as an indicator of market health. Economic news will include New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence and Q3 GDP and are all expected to increase. Positive news in these economic indicators could give the market a boost. The earnings calendar includes Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) on Monday morning and Paypal (PYPL) in the evening. Alibaba (BABA), Uber (UBER) and Square (SQ) report on Thursday. It will be another tough week to safely trade next week. Unless you have a strategy that can play well in volatility, or a good hedge strategy, it’s best to raise some cash and stay on the sidelines. Watch for stocks that are doing well against the market correction and build those into your daily/weekly watch lists. Those are the stocks that will most likely perform well once we get past all the turmoil. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: The first is the 50-day moving average at 11307.14 right now. It would put a lot of confidence into the market to have the index close back above this level. The next is the 21-day exponential moving average, not too far above the 50-day moving average at 11336.19. There is a resistance area at around 11,300 and 11,400 that are also key to watch. These held back market gains in late September and early October before the index finally broke through. Expect that resistance to come up again. Getting above 11,545.63 would erase a very difficult week and put us back on a path for a rally. Next would be to make it above the high of 10/12 at 11,965.54 which was the downside pivot day from October gains. Passing 12074.06 would be a new all-time high and a clear sign that the bull market is back. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise red flags, many similar to what we watched for last week: 10,822.57 is Friday and last week’s low. The index needs to hold above that low to prevent even further correction-level losses. The next area to watch us the July support area at 10,600. If further losses are to come, then the hope is we'd at least stop at this level. If we break through here, there is danger of a much more damaging decline. 10,519.49 is the September low. The index found itself in that area twice but closed higher during those days. Closing below that line would be significant. Beyond the July support area, there is not much to hold back the index from dropping to the June support area of 10,000. There were only 2-3 days in early July that we were trading between these two levels. At the 10,000 level, there would be a lot of support from the round number psychology as well as the approaching 200d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up How do you feel? That is one of the most important questions you should ask yourself. Your mental health is the most important part of your trading system. Are you disappointed from the last few weeks? Are you feeling anxious about the coming week, the market, the elections and the pandemic? Spend some time to get yourself centered. Next, have a plan. Most of us will plan to stay in cash. If you have some hedging strategies or a trading strategy for volatile markets, then write it out. Spend some time thinking through the what-ifs for the week. Things will move fast, and it’s best to be prepared for multiple possibilities. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 10/30Trend lines drawn the 10/12 pivot day (15d), 10/26 (5d), and today 10/30 (1d). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 30, 2020 If there's somethin' strange in your neighborhood Who ya gonna call? Facts: -2.45% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 29%, Red Body: 62% Good: Not much, small uptick at end of day Bad: Lower low Highs/Lows: Higher low, higher high Candle: Thick green body, majority in lower part of candle, long top wick Advance/Decline: 1.85, about 2 advancers for every decliner Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.07%), Communications (XLC +2.25%) were top, Health (XLV -0.82%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market sold off heavily on Friday after a big day of earnings releases that did not meet the demands of investors who were already nervous from the resurging pandemic and the pending turmoil from next weeks election. There is not much to look at on the good side other than the pullbacks will eventually create new opportunities. The index fell -2.45% in Friday’s session, with an increase in volume as investors sold off equities before the weekend. There was a slight uptick at the end of the day as bulls came in for low priced opportunities, with focus on Energy and Finance sectors. The candle has a long 62% body with a short lower wick from the last few minutes of buying, ending with a 29% closing range. There were about 2.5 declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -1.21%) did not lose as much as the Nasdaq but still saw selling on higher volume. All the indexes turned out lower highs and lower lows to end the worst week for equity markets since March. Energy (XLK +0.56%) and Financials (XLF +0.26%) were the only sectors with positive numbers. Technology (XLK -2.21%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.18%) shared the bottom of the sector list, with those sectors driving the broader market sell off. Although having many bright spots throughout the week, Communication Services (XLC -1.69) also had significant losses on Friday. The VIX volatility index increased +1.14% to close the week 38% higher than the previous week and well above September numbers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds Treasury Bond spreads increased for the day. The spreads are in an upward trend channel from an August pivot. No worries from that perspective. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Google (GOOG +3.43%) was the only of the big four mega-caps to have gains. Apple (AAPL -5.60%) and Amazon (AMZN -5.45%) both had huge losses after their earnings releases, while Microsoft (MSFT -1.10%) did not do too bad given the market condition. Each has a bit of a different profile of trading during the day. Google gaped up at market open but then sold throughout the day losing some of the early gains. Microsoft dipped over 3% but was bought back later in the day. Apple followed or drove the market, depending on how you view it, trading almost exactly along the same path. Facebook (FB -6.31%), Snap (SNAP -6.70%), and Pinterest (PINS -5.70%) soared the past two weeks but gave back some ground on Friday. Most growth stocks did not fair well. Chevron (CVX +1.02%) and Exxon Mobile (XOM -1.06%) had opposite reactions after morning earnings reports. Both continued struggling with revenue while Chevron seems to be managing costs better. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Next week is the big week that will both answer questions and create new questions. Who will win the election and what impact will that have on the market longer term? Will there be a smooth end to the process, or will the candidates start a long battle to contest the results? Can congress resume discussions for a stimulus or will we have to wait until transitions to new leadership in government? Beyond the election, we will get updates on Manufacturing data early in the week and the Fed is scheduled to announce any interest rate changes on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance Since we are in between two support and resistance areas, there is room to move in either direction on Monday. Getting back to the midpoint trend line from the 10/12 pivot would mean a +0.90% gain. That seems a reasonable move after the uptick at today’s close and without any big context changes over the weekend. On the downside, the one-day and five-day trend lines point to about the same place which is a -1.11% loss. The lower trend line is just above the July support area and still within a parallel channel drawn from 10/12. Breaking through this support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. I have added back the future possibility of reaching the June support area, a -7.21% loss from today’s close. This downward trend seems to be how the market is heading into the election on Tuesday. Following Tuesday, we could finally see a turn for the better.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
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