Get started

RUSSELL 2000

Nasdaq Market Update for 10/29Trend lines drawn the 10/12 pivot day (14d), 10/22 (5d), and today 10/28 (1d). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, October 29, 2020 It's something unpredictable But in the end is right I hope you had the time of your life Facts: +1.65% lower, Volume lower, Closing range: 60%, Green Body: 47% Good: Traded above yesterday’s low, fat green bullish body Bad: Selling at end of day after 50d MA resistance Highs/Lows: Higher low, higher high Candle: Thick green body, majority in lower part of candle, long top wick Advance/Decline: 1.85, about 2 advancers for every decliner Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.07%), Communications (XLC +2.25%) were top, Health (XLV -0.82%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a reasonably good day following the sell-off on Wednesday. The Nasdaq finished up +1.64% after tempting itself with the 50d MA and September Resistance line. Volume was lower, returning to the recent levels that have represented the wait-and-see level of activity in the market, well below the 50d average volume. The candle has a 47% green body with a 60% closing range which is good considering the bounce from yesterday but also shows not everyone is back in the game yet. Breadth was ok with two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX +1.19%) had a similar day with gains on lower volume that somewhat dropped back at the end of the day. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI +0.52%) had lower highs and lower lows, putting them further below their key moving averages with the 21d EMA slipping below the 50d MA. Energy (XLE +3.07%) and Communication Services (XLC +2.52%) were the best performing sectors with Energy passing Communications in the last 30 minutes of trading. Keeping an eye on Technology (XLK +1.67%), it had decent gains today ahead of some important earnings announcements. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.03%) and Health (XLV -0.82%) were the only two sectors with losses. The VIX volatility index finally took a step back, losing -6.68%, but the close remains above the September numbers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds Treasury Bond spreads increased for the day. The spreads are in an upward trend channel from an August pivot. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The mega-caps all faired well after yesterday’s selling. Apple (AAPL +3.71%), Amazon (AMZN +1.52%) Microsoft (MSFT +1.01%) and Google (GOOG +3.34%) had significant gains as did the majority of mega cap companies. Pinterest (PINS +26.92%) followed up great earnings with a huge gain, trying to keep up with rival Snap (SNAP -1.49%) which had is starting to build a base after the huge gains from last week. Lots of growth stocks had good gains on the day. Shopify (SHOP -4.84%) and Spotify (SPOT -3.36%) retreated heading into earnings. So let’s talk about earnings. All of the big tech companies that released earnings reports today, beat expectations. Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook all had good reports compared to expectations, yet except for Google they sold off in after hours. The same story played out for Shopify. Spotify missed slightly but had great customer adds data. Apple had higher revenue but low performance in China and no guidance. The market, not willing to stomach that, sold off AAPL over -4% in after hours. Facebook is down -2.88% after market, Amazon is down -1.81%. This is also a continuation of earnings beats earlier in the week that have seen losses in the stock price. Investors are looking for the extremely good beats and expectations like the ones we saw from Snap and Pinterest. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead to Tomorrow Tomorrow will be a big day for Energy as Exxon Mobile (XOM +4.43%) and Chevron (CVX +2.87%) will announce earnings before market open. In addition, a plethora of other large cap companies will report before market open. Employment Wages and Personal Consumption Expenditures aren’t expected to have much impact in the context to this week’s other economic indicators and impact of earnings reactions. We already know people are spending more while earning less based on other economic indicators. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance As I stated in yesterday’s update, I removed the trend lines from 9/3 and 9/24 which were having less and less relevance since we pivoted on 10/12 and are approaching the lows of September. For tomorrow, the one day trend line would point to a +2.30% gain that breaks back above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA that often act as support or resistance. Continuing the trend from the 10/12 pivot day as well ad the last five days would result in a -1.06% drop. This is where the trend line points to, but it’s reasonable to believe a continued loss for Friday and into Monday that would take us to the 10,600 support level. Breaking through this area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. I have added back the future possibility of reaching that line, a -9.41% loss from today’s close. This downward trend seems to be how the market is heading into the election on Tuesday. Following Tuesday, we could finally see a turn for the better.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
STRANGLE FOR PROFITThis year has been one of the best to be a (smart) trader. We've had absolutely historic opportunities and I'm sure there's more to come. This little ascending wedge (abcde) could be creating an opportunity for a strangle (long & short). I have several strategies I follow for the other indices but I will occasionally play a strangle where I can see it going either direction. Personally, I may wait until (E) is tagged and will buy a long position in calls and hedge that position with puts. There are other ways to play the breakout but I prefer to buy at (E) and wait until a target is reached (up or down). I also like to use options that have a medium term expiry (5-6 months out) so decay and noise aren't too dramatic. Let's see what happens!
AMEX:IWM
by gghsusa
1
Nasdaq Market Update for 10/28Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (39d), 9/24 bottom (25d), 10/12 pivot day (13d), 10/22 (5d), and today 10/28 (1d). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, October 28, 2020 Let down and hanging around Crushed like a bug in the ground Facts: -3.73% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Red Body: -90% Good: Nothing Bad: Gap down, deep red candle, ending at the days lows, broke below 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower low, lower high Candle: Very tiny wicks on either side of a fat red body Advance/Decline: 0.16, 6 decliners for every one advancer Sectors: All sectors down, Real Estate (XLRE -2.22%) and Financials (XLF -2.56%) held up best. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The day was not so much of a surprise but still hurts for a bull in the market. Sure, there were hopes for a bounce off the 50d MA or bulls coming in at the end of the day to buy the dip. But none of that happened. The Nasdaq finished down -3.73%, well below the 50d MA and testing the round number area of 11,000. Round number support is created by the tendency for investors to pick big round numbers as buy/sell triggers. The candle has a huge 90% red body with tiny wicks on top and bottom and a dismal 2% closing range. There were many more declining stocks than advancing stocks at a 6:1 to ratio with the broader NYSE seeing a 10:1 ratio. Volume on the Nasdaq had a huge 28.4% increase over the previous day and is above average volume for the past 50 days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -3.53%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI -3.43%) indexes also saw big losses on increased volume. The Dow Jones Industrial went below September lows. The Russell 2000 (RUT -2.98%) faired slightly better, but still saw big losses. All sectors were losers with Real Estate (XLR -2.22%) and Financials (XLF -2.56%) holding up the best. Technology (XLK -4.24%) was the worst sector of the day. Communication Services (XLC -3.93%) and Energy (XLE -4.18%) also underperformed the SPX index, with Energy having some positive gains after Crude Oil Inventories were announced, but later selling off. Utilities (XLU -2.91%) was strongest in morning trading, before giving up to the excessive selling. The VIX volatility index increased a whopping +20.78% to add to the weeks gains which are now at 46.21% and exceeding the volatility highs of September. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Bonds Treasury Bond spreads stayed about the same as the previous day. This is something to keep an eye on, but the spread is still in an upward trend channel from an August pivot. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The mega-caps were all impacted by the selling with Microsoft (MSFT -4.96%), Apple (AAPL -4.63%), Google (GOOG -5.46%), Amazon (AMZN -3.76%) all dropping significantly. All of them closed below their 50d MA. Add Tesla (TSLA -4.29%), Facebook (FB -5.51%) and every other company over 200B market cap to that list. Not even one was spared. On the other hand, there were some bright spots elsewhere in the market. Chewy (CHWY +6.33%) continued its breakout despite the heavy selling. Twilio (TWLO +3.73%) finally got some credit for a good earnings report after selling earlier this week. Pinterest (PINS -6.23%) turned a big loss into huge >30% gains after the market closed thanks to their earnings report. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead to Tomorrow Tomorrow is the week’s big day with an enormous number of companies announcing quarterly earnings including Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Starbucks (SB -3.30%) after market close. Shopify (SHOP -5.19%) will release earnings before market open. The big economic news tomorrow will include the Gross Domestic Product. It is expected to show a record amount of growth but remember that this quarter will follow the worst quarter in history, and it is not an indicator of future economic activity. Any initial excitement in the market on this data alone, would certainly sell off without additional reasons to support gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance For trend lines and expectation circles, I’ve grayed out the trend lines from the 9/3 correction start and the 9/24 bottom. These trend lines have lost significance against the current trend lines, and I’ll remove them in the next update. However, the trend from the 10/12 pivot day (which becomes the top in the current wave), and the 5d trend provide for the possibility of a +1.56% gain tomorrow. This would put the index just below September resistance area that held prices down in early October. Continuing today’s trend which was mostly flat after the initial sell-off would mean a -0.49% loss tomorrow and would break through the 11,000 round number resistance. Beyond the trend lines, there are two support areas to watch for. The first is at 10,600 which is where we found the bottom of 10,519.49 in September. Breaking through this area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. I have added back the future possibility of reaching that line. An additional -8.18% loss to that area feels within the realm of possible outcomes.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 10/27Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (38d), 9/24 bottom (24d), 10/12 pivot day (12d), 10/21 (5d), and today 10/27 (1d). Tuesday, October 27, 2020 You shake my nerves and you rattle my brain Facts: +0.64% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 67%, Green Body: +21% Good: Upward trend most of the day, staying above the 50d MA Bad: Could not stay above the 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low, inside day Candle: An inside day with a small green body, nearly identical upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.63, 3:2 decliners to advancers Sectors: Communications (XLC) and Technology (XLK) performed best. All other sectors lost, with Industrials (XLI) and Financials (XLF) performing worst. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The follow-up to a terrible Monday was an inside day with gains in the Nasdaq while the rest of the market continued to melt down among mixed signals from a positive Durable Goods report, but an unexpected dip in Consumer Confidence. The Nasdaq ended the day up +0.64% higher, driven by big tech and hot communications sector stocks. The day was a bit choppy, but the overall channel for the day was upward. The index poked above its 21d EMA four times but settled at the end of the day just below the key line. The candle is inside the highs and lows of the previous day which typically is a continuation (vs a reversal). Keeping that in mind, it did close in the 67% range of the candle with a green 21% body. There were many more declining stocks than advancing stocks at a ratio of 3:2 (the ratio is worse in the broader NYSE). Volume was lower and continues to be much lower than recent average volume. The index closed below the 21d EMA, but above the 50d MA, both key lines that investors commonly watch. The S&P500 (SPX -0.30%) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -0.80%), had decidedly bearish inside days, spending most of the day trading below their 50d MA. The Russell 2000 (RUT -0.90%) also had another loss, falling below the 21d EMA. Communication Services (XLC +0.64%) was the best sector of the day, driven by gains from Facebook (FB +2.23%) and Google (GOOG +0.87%). Technology (XLK +0.50%) sector also had a great day but was driven mostly by the larger stocks Apple (AAPL +1.35%) and Microsoft (MSFT +1.51%). All other sectors lost on the day with Industrial (XLI -2.19%) and Financial (XLF -1.83%) sectors ending the day with the worst performance. Utilities (XLU -0.08%) had early gains and topped the sector list at times, then faded near close. The VIX volatility index increased +2.74% for another gain on top of Monday's surge. The key indicator is now up over 20% for the week and nearing the early September highs. Treasury Bond spreads shrunk for another day. This is something to keep an eye on, but the spread is still in an upward trend channel from an August pivot. The real winners of the day were the mega-caps. Microsoft (MSFT +1.51%), Apple (AAPL +1.35%), Google (GOOG +0.87%), Amazon (AMZN +2.47%), Tesla (TSLA +1.05%) and Facebook (FB +2.23%) all turned in solid gains for the day. Microsoft and Apple still closed below their 21d EMA, but Amazon regained this key support to join Google above the line. Facebook has a nice base forming heading into earnings. Beyond the mega-caps, the performance is mixed among favorite growth stocks. Dexcom (DXCM -8.94%), Draft Kings (DKNG +2.49%), Workhorse Group (WKHS -6.91%), AMD (-4.07%) were among the losers. Pinterest (PINS +4.08%), Etsy (ETSY +4.33%), Peloton (PTON +2.58%) and Datadog (DDOG +1.57%) were some of the winners. Notice these lists of winners and losers among the favorite growth stocks is rotating at an accelerated space. Microsoft (MSFT) and AMD (AMD) reported earnings with Microsoft down -1.71% and AMD up +0.34% in afterhours trading, despite both beating expectations. Tomorrow’s reports will include Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V), Boeing (BA), and ServiceNow (NOW) which will all be significant, with several reporting before market open. In economic news, Crude Oil Inventories will be announced at 10:30a. Continuing today’s trend direction would result in a +0.34% gain tomorrow, taking the index back above the 21d EMA and signaling some recovery from the recent downtrend. Better news from stimulus talks or coronavirus treatments could accelerate that to meet up with the longer trend lines at +2.45%. The index is still trading below the 21d EMA and above the 50d MA which seems to be a channel for now. In addition, there is a channel that formed from the 10/12 pivot day with a well-defined upper and lower channel line. Following the channel and the regression trend from the 10/12 pivot day as well as the 5d trend, would mean a -0.99% loss and land the index right above the 50d MA. I'm keeping the June Support line in view, but its ~12.5% below the Tuesday close and there are 3 key support levels that the index would have to break thru. If we have a significant downside that takes the index below 11,300 again, then I'll add that possibility back to the chart.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 10/26Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (37d), 9/24 bottom (23d), 10/12 pivot day (11d), 10/20 (5d), and today 10/26 (1 day). Monday, October 26, 2020 Hold tight, we're in for nasty weather Burning down the house Facts: -1.64% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 42%, Red Body: -25% Good: Support at the end of the day, brought the index back over 50d MA Bad: Everything else, gap down, closed below the 21d EMA and took a visit below the 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: A large body for a spinning top, but nonetheless shows clearer the action from bears and bulls. Advance/Decline: 0.23, more than 4 decliners for every advancer Sectors: All sectors down with Utilities (XLU) performing best, holding to a -0.03% loss. Energy (XLE) was the worst sector with a -3.59%, erasing gains from last week. Keeping an eye on Technology (XLK) this week, it’s near the middle of the sector list with a -2.17% loss and underperforming the SPX. Expectation: Sideways Well, crap. Welcome to Monday. News over the weekend reset expectations coming into the morning, but there was still hope that support would firm up and it initially did that as the market opened, coming close to Friday’s high. Then the reversal, 30 minutes into trading, came after New Home Sales data disappointed and it was a long slide from there. At 1:30p, the Nasdaq was down nearly 3% and below the key 50d MA support line. At that point, the bulls came in and brought it back to end the day with a -1.64% loss. The candle looks like a spinning top, albeit a fat one, with a 25% red body and a 42% closing range. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Volume was slightly higher than Friday, but still well below recent average volume. The index closed below the 21d EMA for the first time since 9/25. The S&P500 had a slightly different character with no morning gains. It was all downhill most of the day, with some buying in the afternoon to finish at -1.86% loss. All sectors finished with a loss, but Utilities (XLU) held up the best with only a -0.03% loss. This has been the safe haven sector for investors to stay in the market, instead of going to bonds or commodities. Health (XLV -1.11%), Consumer Staples (XLP -1.28%), Real Estate (XLRE -1.21%) all outperformed the broader index. The first two likely because of pandemic news and the third benefiting from the drop in new home sales (XLRE is dominated by management companies, that benefit from less demand and cheaper prices in real estate). The Russell 2000 (RUT -2.15%) wiped away all gains from the previous week, performing almost as bad as the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -2.29%). Treasury Bond spreads shrunk but remained in an upward channel from the last few weeks. The mega-caps had a mixed day. Microsoft (MSFT -2.84%) closed well below it’s 50d MA line, likely being impacted by SAP (SAP -23.16%) that revised guidance downward over the weekend, sending a signal there may be trouble in enterprise software. Google (GOOG -3.08%) gave up about half of it’s gains from last week. Apple (AAPL +0.01%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.08%) faired a bit better, ending the day with small gains, although both are holding below key indicators of 21d EMA and 50d MA. The storied stock from last week, Snap (SNAP -4.40%) finally gave up some profits, while there was a lot of carnage with other growth stocks. There were some positive stories among growth stocks. Deckers Outdoor (DECK +2.58%), Shopify (SHOP +1.15%), ZScaler (ZS +1.33%), Zoom Video (ZM +1.23%), Wayfair (W +2.07%) all had good days while the market was struggling. Microsoft (MSFT) and AMD (AMD) earnings after close tomorrow. Core Durable Goods Orders data comes in before market and Consumer Confidence data at 10:00am. I’ll start with the positive trend lines, although I think some sideways action is in order after a negative expectation breaker day. Nonetheless, unexpected news can help put some positive gains in the market. With enough energy, the index could find its way back to the correction regression trend line (which is still on an upward slope) and the trend from the 9/24 bottom. That would be an unlikely +3.30% gain. The index landed below the 21d EMA, but above the 50d MA. This provides both a resistance and support point that points to a sideways move. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day, points to a -0.40% loss that keeps the index within this channel. The one day trend points to more losses and would result in -2.50% loss. I'm keeping the June Support line in view, but its ~12% below the Monday close and there are 3 key support levels that the index would have to break thru. If we have a significant downside that takes the index below 11,300 again, then I'll add that possibility back to the chart.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 10/23Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (36d), 9/24 bottom (22d), 10/12 pivot day (10d), 10/19 (5d), and today 10/23 (1 day). Friday, October 23, 2020 We were runnin' against the wind Facts: 0.37% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Green Body: +11% Good: Held above key support at 21d EMA Bad: Low volume, not much price movement Highs/Lows: Higher high (by a fraction), higher low Candle: Long lower wick as investors bought up the lows to end nearly where the day started. Advance/Decline: 1.63, more advancers than decliners Sectors: Communication Services (XLC) led the day with +0.94% gain. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) also had a good day at +0.88%. Expectation: Higher One more day of reversals to close a choppy week. Every day this week had a morning move that reversed once or more by close. Earlier in the week it was higher highs that reversed to lower lows. At the end of the week, it was lows that reversed to close with gains. Today the Nasdaq ended with a +0.37% gain. The candle has a tiny 11% green body and 100% closing range as the day ended at its high, but not much above where it started. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks at a ratio of 1.63. Volume was lower than the previous day and much lower than average volume over the past few weeks. The index tested the 21d EMA again and stayed above it. The S&P500 had an even tighter range between open and close and ended with a similar +0.34% gain. Communication Services (XLC +0.94%) had the best gains among sectors fueled by positive gains from social platforms. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.88%) also did well today, with a mix of discount retailers, auto parts and restaurant/service companies doing well. Technology (XLK -0.11%) and Energy (XLE -0.49%) were the worst performing of the day. The Russell 2000 capped off a winning week with another +0.88% gain. Google (GOOG +1.59%) continued the momentum it has gained the last few weeks while Microsoft (MSFT +0.62%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.88%) finally found some support with significant gains. Apple (AAPL -0.61%) and Amazon remain under their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. The story of the week has been Snap (SNAP +10.78%) which continues to have incredible gains after it’s earnings release. More growth stocks have turned back toward gains which is a positive sign for continued gains next week. Continuing today’s trend into Monday would mean around a +0.66% gain, splitting the difference between the 1d trend line and the trend drawn from the 9/3 correction. The trend from the 9/24 bottom is +2.67% from today’s close and is a possibility if good news comes over the weekend to fuel gains. As the index continues to test the 21d EMA, it’s possible it can find itself below that line. That would continue this past week’s trend to a -1.29% loss and land under the October Support area. Further losses would find the 50d MA and the index would likely get support at that level. I'm keeping the June Support line in view, but its ~13% below the Friday close and there are 4 key support levels that the index would have to break thru. If we have a significant downside that takes the index below 11,300, then I'll add that possibility back to the chart.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 10/22Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (35d), 9/24 bottom (21d), 10/12 pivot day (9d), 10/16 (5d), and today 10/22 (1 day). Thursday, October 22, 2020 Livin’ on a prayer. Facts: 0.19% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 76%, Red Body: -12% Good: Reversed from morning lows to end day positive Bad: Dipped below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Looks like a hammer, 12% red body with 76% closing range. Advance/Decline: 1.76, more advancers than decliners Sectors: Energy (XLE) had a huge 4.13% gain. Financial (XLF), Health (XLV) and Utilities (XLU) also had good days. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Finally, there is a bit of character change in the market. After several days of morning gains selling off in afternoon trading, the opposite happened on Thursday. A big morning loss that took the index below the 21d EMA was bought back in the afternoon to end the day with gains. The Nasdaq ended the day with a 0.19% gain. The candle, with a 76% closing range and 12% red body looks like a reversal hammer. That will need to be confirmed with the next few days of trading. Volume was lower (my indicator above is based on QQQ volume) for the Nasdaq and continues to be lower than average volume in recent weeks. For a true hammer candlestick, we'd want to see higher volume. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks at a ratio of 1.76. It’s a positive sign that the index regained it’s ground and closed above the 21 day EMA. The S&P500 had a similar pattern and closed the day with a 0.52% gain, led by Energy (XLE +4.13%) and Financial (XLF +1.99%). Most of the sectors saw gains on the day. Technology (XLK -0.24%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.70%) were the worst performing. The Russell 2000 Index had gains of 1.65% as investors looked for good opportunities in small cap stocks. Google (GOOG +1.38%) led the mega-cap stocks with it’s second day of solid gains. Apple (AAPL -0.96%) and Amazon (AMZN -0.27%) had losses on the day and continue to trade below their 50 day MA. It would be a positive sign for an overall upward trend if these mega-caps got back above this key line. Chevron (CVX +3.57%) and Exxon Mobil (XOM +5.13%) along with almost every energy stock saw gains after talk of consolidation in the industry and layoffs at Exxon. Snap (SNAP +6.77%) continued it’s rally after an earnings breakout. Several growth stocks such as Restoration Hardware (RH +4.34%) and Zoom (ZM +1.43%) had gains after several days of losses. This is all a good sign, but needs to be confirmed with additional gains from more growth stocks. If the candlestick hammer is confirmed and we see gains from here, trend lines point to two possibilities. The first is a +1.01% gain in the area between today’s trend line and the trend drawn from the 9/3 correction start. Additional positive news could accelerate gains to reach the trend line draw from the 9/23 bottom. That would mean a +3.42% gain. If the index cannot hold above the 21d EMA, then the 5 day trend and trend from the 10/12 pivot would point to a -1.50%. This is where the 50d MA line is at and where we’ve seen support from September trading. I'm keeping the June Support line in view, but its ~13% below the Thursday close and there are 4 key support levels that the index would have to break thru. If we have a significant downside that takes the index below 11,300, then I'll add that possibility back to the chart.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
ridethepig | Buyers in Difficulty📌 A timely update to the S&P weekly chart, where we can see clearly sellers are provoking the breakdown into some sort of waterfall. All Global Equity charts look very similar with the traditional struggle between the defending fast money crowd and the more MT and LT sharks who are aware that the momentum is stalling and are itching to load at cheaper levels. What is becoming clearer by the day is that Fed has blown a bubble which is exposed to a second round of lockdowns and a contested election will prevent any from hanging on. Here sharp speculators will have to bite the bullet and hold shorts while looking to reload full positions at the highs. Tracking closely 3,000 and 2,900 as the next areas of interest. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
15
RTY Update 10/9Well, I was all cash and overslept, lol. I'm on the west coast, not waking up at 6am when I'm all cash. I warned everyone last night about "stimulus" news, everything overbought but still rallying. If they agree to a deal over the weekend, we get a huge gap up on Monday, despite all indicators. All other world indices were slightly red, which I expected and I wasn't going to bet against my indicators, so I stayed out. RTY MFI did drop, and it will pop again when MFI gets oversold, so look for another pop next week on stimulus to close the COVID gap. YM (Dow) dropped when it closed the gap, expect the same here. Wish I had bout FTNT or DLTR calls, both were on my radar. Oh well. Also, don;t short on Friday afternoons, market always seems to rally. I think all cash and fade the gap when stimulus news is announced.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
October 7 PlanAlongside news that President Trump halted relief talks with Democrats until after the election, markets fell apart, retesting the prior week balance and the VWAP anchored from the September highs. Since the cash close, markets have recovered substantially off their overnight lows alongside comments Trump could send $1,200 checks to Americans. The action has been constructive and we're now sitting right on top of a major high-volume concentration that denotes recent value and should allow responsive sellers favorable entry if there has been an actual change in conviction. Auctioning through the high-volume area and recovering the SOC (Scene Of The Crime) would increase the odds we test the 61.8% retracement (i.e., $3,440). Overall, remaining above the $3,370 high-volume area is bullish. Below $3,370 is bearish. This will likely be a go, no-go level in today's trade. Note: Prior to the sell-off, the market was showing signs of a balance-area break-out, piercing through the "Ledge". The fact that it was building value north of the ledge gave initiative longs confidence to discover higher. Given that the news event brought us back into range, there's potential that the responsive participants auction price lower to the other end of balance, near the $3,320 area (i.e., a boundary of the low-volume area which denotes upside directional conviction). Defense of the low-volume area is paramount. Should price probe into and auction through the area, then a likely target would be the recent $3,198 swing low.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik