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RUSSELL 2000

September 27 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $3,200 High Volume Area; Friday’s Divergence From Value; Balance Area. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended lower with the S&P 500 correcting as low as $3,200. Recapping last week’s action, Monday's test of the $3,200 high-volume area offered responsive buyers an opportunity to get in at favorable prices. Buying continued through Tuesday, before resisting an area of resting liquidity at $3,300. After disappointments in business activity data and stimulus talks, on heavy-volume and supportive delta, Wednesday's liquidation erased the entire week’s gains. Alongside improvements in home sale data, mega-caps and technology led the market higher, through Friday's close, away from value. Overall, in the bigger picture, the market is churning above $3,200, the site of a large high-volume area which denotes the market’s recent perception of value. When prices trade to a high-volume area, on a swing up auction, then trade should slow allowing responsive longs a good place to enter. Should prices trade and spend time below this area, then perceptions have changed and longs are no longer favorable, at least in the near term. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: John Authers, a Bloomberg columnist, suggested gold is falling due to rise in real yields. “When real yields rise then gold, which pays no income, can be expected to fall. This is true even if real yields are rising from deeply negative territory. To explain the intuition behind this, gold is widely regarded as a hedge against central banking irresponsibility. Recent speculation is that the Fed may not print money and cut rates with quite the gay abandon that had been assumed. This may or may not be good news for the U.S. economy, but it raises real yields and for investors in gold and in risk assets, who might benefit from currency debasement, it is definitely bad news.” bloom.bg Simply put, the theory that the Federal Reserve exhausted itself has buoyed real yields, which have an inverse relationship to metals. Key Events: Monday: Fed Mester Speech. Tuesday: Goods Trade Balance, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Harker Speech, CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Williams Speech, Presidential Debate. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, GDP Growth Rate, Core PCE Prices QoQ Final, Corporate Profits, GDP Price Index, PCE Prices QoQ Final, Pending Home Sales, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Kashkari Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech. Thursday: Core PCE Price Index YoY, PCE Price Index YoY, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Price Index MoM, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Fed Williams Speech. Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Average Weekly Hours, Non-Farm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Fed Harker Speech, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Factory Orders MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final. Recent News: Fed publishes scenarios for the second round of 2020 stress tests, a credit positive. bit.ly Sea level rise increases credit risk for U.S. coastal states and local governments. bit.ly Airlines are calling for COVID-19 coronavirus tests before all international flights. reut.rs Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) gets U.S. licenses to supply to Huawei. reut.rs China air force video appears to show a simulated attack on U.S. base on Guam. reut.rs How secular shifts will force the U.S. commercial real estate market to adapt. bit.ly Government aid and stock gains pushed U.S. wealth to pre-pandemic levels. reut.rs As U.S. business activity loses momentum, home price inflation accelerates. reut.rs JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) to pay nearly $1 billion in spoofing penalty. reut.rs Higher inflation regime in medium term after decade of persistent undershooting. bit.ly A jump in U.S. coal railroad volumes, 2021 forecasts are driving up sentiment. bit.ly Global banks seek to contain damage over $2 trillion of suspicious transfers. reut.rs Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) pushes security with indoor drones, car alarms. reut.rs Crude, product prices diverge as market looks to U.S. stimulus, COVID situation. bit.ly IEA analysis of innovation in batteries and electricity storage, based on patent data. bit.ly U.S. upgrades accounted for three-fourths of affected debt in the latest period. bit.ly Hedge funds see opportunity in the New York, San Francisco apartment markets. reut.rs Low interest rates create pension and investment challenges but lower debt costs. bit.ly China is on course for record LNG imports as industries recover and expand. reut.rs General Electric Co (NYSE: GE) plans to stop making coal-fired power plants. reut.rs COVID ‘firepower’: Britain imposed six month curbs against a second virus wave. reut.rs Microsoft Corporation’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) acquisition of ZeniMax credit positive. bit.ly Bombardier Inc’s (OTC: BDRBF) agreement to sell transport unit credit negative. bit.ly Coronavirus resets Latin American economies at lower base, driving asset risks. bit.ly California banning sale of new gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in 2035. reut.rs Data is suggesting that splits fundamentally change how stocks perform. bit.ly The corporate bond issuance boom may steady credit quality, on balance. bit.ly Per earnings and interest rate forecasts, valuations not supported fundamentally. bit.ly Data expected to confirm sentiment eased across most European countries. bit.ly Wary buyers and softer foreign demand, likely raised Japan’s unemployment rate. bit.ly On balance, 2020’s bond issuance boom enhanced overall financial flexibility. bit.ly Demographics and the rising cost of funding retirement may affect valuations. bloom.bg Key Metrics: Sentiment: 24.9% Bullish, 29.1% Neutral, 46.0% Bearish as of 9/23/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,152,474,010 as of 9/25/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 42.2% as of 9/25/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY TVC:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX TVC:GOLD Crude Oil (CL): TVC:USOIL AMEX:USL AMEX:DBO AMEX:USO Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
7
RUSSELL 2000, Above Preliminary Level, These Steps Can Follow!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this analysis where we are looking at the RUSSELL 2000 index 4-hour timeframe perspective, the recent events, the current formational structure and what we can expect the next times. The main market and other indices like the SPX or DOW recovered steeply from the heavy corona-breakdowns and lows established this year where they already managed to form new all-time-highs, in this case, the RUSSELL 2000 is still below the major all-time-highs established before the corona-breakdowns, this does not mean it can change, however, therefore, it is important that the index shows up with the proper price-action and don't invalidates the possible bullish scenario substantially, therefore I detected all the important levels and possible outcomes we should consider for the index and its destinies. Looking at my chart you can watch there the triangle-formation marked in orange which already broke out to the upside where it also bounced already from the upper boundary and the blue rising-support-line marked in my chart, what is also a good sign is that the index formed a bullish-EMA-crossover already before the triangle-breakout occurred, currently, as you can watch marked in my chart the index has still resistance at the descending-resistance-line marked in grey above the level, when the index manages to move above it this will cause a decent entry setup as the index has taken out its major resistance, as you can watch in my chart, this mechanism can be entered immediately aggressive in the current price-action or conservative when the breakout occurred, although the aggressive approach is also possible the conservative should be preferred. In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, good day to you, and all the best! “Trading effectively is about assessing possibilities, not certainties.” Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
TVC:RUT
by VincePrince
1
ridethepig | Small Caps Breaking DownA timely update to the Russell 2000 after running into sellers at the 1600 resistance which was previously support. Small caps have seen a huge uptick in selling interest and momentum is starting to kick in. Buyers giving up the diagonal support is opening up a world of trouble and asking for sellers to apply more pressure. The V shapers and naysayers that its not different this time will continue with the necessary text, the question is whether real money decides to step in and stop the bleeding. After losing support the next key level in play is 1350, and a deeper extension towards 1,175. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
OANDA:US2000USDShort
by ridethepig
2
$RUT Small CapsQuick look at the small caps - RUT hasn't been as enthusiastic as the SPX and the Nasdaq. We see that, while it's had its own run since the March bounce, this upward trend line has been broken below in the past few sessions. Next major support is 1450 area. As i've mentioned in my previous post, look to small caps and financials to act as a drag to any bull rallies in the SPX and tech. For the time being, technical indicators doesn't seem to support a bounce or a rally in small caps.
TVC:RUTShort
by grenadetrade
$SPX failures at the top $RUT $XLFBeen a while since i posted - life stuff :) I think it's fair to say that given all the things that are going around in the US and the rest of the world, the stock market, particularly the tech driven Nasdaq has been "over-exuberant", getting to and fairly swiftly breaking above to new all time highs on the SPX. While market participants had all signs to say that this would correct, many, almost all, maintained that this is still a bull market and the markets have more upside to go. I've maintained that we have been in a bear market but participants are wishing the continuation of the longest bull market in history, ignoring the March correction, or rather asserting that this is a new bull market. In either case... history has shown that even with crisis driven/led markets, it takes a couple of years for markets to reverse trend and enter/exit bull and bear markets. I think we're in a bear market that is shaking off what remains of the bull market and it's glitters. The SPX broke above new highs and sputtered quite drastically as it ran out of gas. It didn't put up much of a fight near the 3390 level for support, and after spending a day to get back above this level to mount a bull charge, that effort was quickly extinguished and broke down to 3365 ish level, below the previous all time high support. From there it mounted another charge to get back above 3393, and this week, once again smothered by sellers, and we remain at 3330, where the last bull charge/stance was made. Will there be another charge to test resistance? Yet to be seen. Interesting perspective to note here is that, while institutional investors move markets, retail investors can cause a panic rampage. With the Covid pandemic and people having no place to go, no work to go to, staying at home and unattended or unemployed, people are pouring money in to their only source of income and investment, which is the stock market - which by all accounts, rallied from March as the pandemic has gotten worse, at least in the United States. We have to understand that, while someone like myself have been through the dot com bubble and the financial crisis, many of these young investors and traders don't know what a stock market crash is, never mind what a bear market looks like. For them, the stock market seems unbreakable; it's a sure win if everyone sticks with it. No understanding of market psychology or behavior, of how markets move. That means, potentially, when market takes a downturn, we may see a feverish panic to the likes of which has never been witnessed before. This rally from March is a subtle sign of that on the bullish side. Call it a panic rally, if you will - fear of missing out, there is no alternative, etc., the usual sayings. Where will the markets go from here? Well, while tech has led the way upward, small caps and financials have not been as enthusiastic about the March bounce, and these groups may drag the markets on the way down like an anchor. I would be looking at those for direction in the coming weeks.
SP:SPXShort
by grenadetrade
September 6 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Excess High; Poor Structure; $3,200 HVN. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with the S&P 500 correcting nearly 7%. Recapping last week’s action, alongside bets of an economic revival backed by prolonged central bank support, the S&P 500 established an overnight all-time high, prior to correcting lower, below value, and trading responsively into the close. On up-beat manufacturing data, Tuesday’s trade built on the prior day’s positive delta, finishing higher on a late spike. Fueled by momentum in tech, Wednesday’s session opened on a gap, accepted the prior day’s spike, and placed initiative buyers firmly in control. After a brief test lower, regular trading discovered prices higher, leaving value and delta behind. At one point sellers finally entered and established excess on a spike high, suggesting the area could be resistive on subsequent tests. Indices dropped overnight, Thursday, ahead of economic releases, catching up to the prior day’s divergent delta. After an open below the prior day’s excess, participants rejected higher prices and fueled an emotional liquidation which repaired numerous sessions worth of poor structure. In Friday’s auction, participants continued the push lower before rejecting the low-volume area at $3,400 on a virgin test, and rotating back to test the supply area near $3,460. Overall, despite the speculative call-side activity in large technology names which forced dealers to hedge in the direction of the trend, prices did manage to auction high enough to attract stronger selling. Given the immense amount of poor structure created by the short-term, momentum-driven participation, it’s no wonder why the corrective action was so fierce. Whether this sell-off is nothing more than a short-term inventory correction, the presence of additional poor structure below us, coupled with a mixed fundamental picture, suggests there may be more downside in play. That said, heavily-weighted index constituents are in an uptrend, while major market indices are in a short gamma, high-volatility environment. Regardless of trend or volatility, it’s time to closely assess how far indices have come and the potential for further upside. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Given the market’s strength going into the U.S. presidential election, ARK Invest CEO and CIO Catherine Wood suggested the multiple structure of the market will continue rising, given the deflationary nature of innovation. bit.ly “The P/E ratio of the S&P 500, right now, is at about 26 times on this year’s earnings and about 20 to 21 on next year’s earnings. Now, we should be looking into next year -- the market is a discounting mechanism. But, to the extent a correction makes people a little more focused on the short term, they’re looking at 26 times this year, and that typically has been the top of the market.” “We’re in a deflationary world, thanks to the innovations that are sweeping through the world that are all deflationary in nature. You know the ones we talk about -- our five platforms -- DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology. As they sweep through the world, there’s going to be a deflationary undercurrent, even as unit growth is very rapid. That is highly positive for P/E ratios.” Wood finished noting that investors may see multiples as high as 33 to 50 and near term corrections are a test of growth’s resilience in the new age of digital disruption and accelerated innovation. Key Events: NFIB Business Optimism Index For August; Employment Trends; Consumer Credit; JOLTS Job Openings; TR IPSOS PCSI; PPI; Wholesale Inventory, Sales; Core CPI; Real Weekly Earnings; Cleveland Fed CPI; Federal Budget. Recent News: Federal Reserve’s average inflation targeting underscores lower-for-longer rate view. bit.ly Market prefers the continuation of Trump, but Biden win wouldn’t be negative. bloom.bg Illusions, Perceptions, and Reality: Discussing Stock Splits and Index Inclusions. bit.ly What is next for markets? Investors should position for rising odds of Trump re-election. bit.ly European Securities and Markets Authority warns of prolonged period of market risk. bit.ly Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) cut Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) stake. bloom.bg Canada added 245,800 jobs in August, but the pace of gains shows signs of slowing. reut.rs Canada has big plans to use hydrogen to cut emissions and produce more oil. reut.rs Demand for jet fuel in the U.S. is recovering faster than in many other markets. bit.ly Three ways multilateral development banks can thrive after the COVID-19 pandemic. bit.ly What the Pentagon’s report on China means for U.S. strategy -- including on Taiwan. brook.gs Used car supply, demand to pressure auto lease asset-backed securities transactions. bit.ly Credit implications of higher debt to depend on persistence of shock, policy buffers. bit.ly Reduced steel quotas are credit positive for the U.S., but negative for Brazilian producers. bit.ly California bans all flavoured tobacco products, a credit negative for tobacco companies. bit.ly Vanguard will convert its prime fund, the industry’s largest, to a government fund. bit.ly Oil market’s rebalancing decelerated on slow consumption recovery, output slack. reut.rs Analyzing differences between the 2000 tech-and-telecom bubble and 2020. bloom.bg U.S. employment growth slowed further in August and permanent job losses increased. reut.rs Bank of Canada to revisit inflation-targeting, shadowing the Federal Reserve’s strategy. reut.rs Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) plans to add 10,000 jobs in Bellevue, Washington. reut.rs Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) could slow COVID-19 trials to add at-risk minorities. reut.rs Re-evaluation finds Microsoft Corporation’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) JEDI proposal is best. reut.rs Larry Kudlow expects the Trump administration to unveil aid for airlines in weeks. reut.rs AstraZeneca Plc (NYSE: AZN) starts final-stage trial of COVID-19 virus vaccine. bloom.bg Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) taps Samsung, Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU) for new gaming chips. reut.rs U.S. factory activity accelerates as order data jumps to more than 16-½-year high. reut.rs Airlines urge the U.K. and U.S. to start London, New York passenger testing trials. reut.rs Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL) shares surge as cruises prepare to set sail this weekend. reut.rs Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) sees virus vaccine data in the thick of the U.S. election fight. reut.rs Key Metrics: Sentiment: 30.8% Bullish, 27.4% Neutral, 41.8% Bearish as of 9/2/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,920,532,148 as of 9/4/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 36% as of 9/4/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): Nasdaq 100 (NQ): Russell 2000 (RTY): Gold (GC): Crude Oil (CL): Treasury Bonds (ZB): Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
Shiller Ratio for Sep 3rd, 20'Into December of 1919, the CAPE was at an all-time low. With so much focus on 1919 going into the COVID-19 pandemic among market commentary, the comparison that this chart allows to make is 1919 to 2019, with a suggestion of downtrend. If the SPX indeed returns to multiples in 1919, that would put a market valuation of the SPX at around $500 according to the CAPE ratio. May 15 Comment: In 1998, Robert Shiller--the Yale economist and Nobel Prize winner-- formalized that idea in a paper, "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook" and a book, "Irrational Exuberance." The latter made Shiller something of an economic prophet. In his book, which came out shortly before the dotcom crash, he warned that stocks were overvalued. What is the CAPE ratio? It describes the price-earnings ratio over 10 years, rather than on a particular date. Called the Shiller P/E, it is calculated by dividing the price of a stock by its average earnings over the past 10 years, adjusted for inflation . It can also be used on an index such as the S&P 500 .
M
by TayFx
2
August 30 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Minimal Excess; Untested POCs; Gaps Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with the S&P 500 establishing a new all-time high on broad gains from all sectors. Recapping last week’s action, Monday’s higher open on the FDA’s approval for emergency use of antibody-rich plasma on COVID-19 patients, was followed by a balanced, low-volume session which migrated value higher. On Tuesday, the market continued squeezing overnight on positive trade news and supportive delta, before correcting inventory down to a prior session low-volume area, and making a failed attempt at the overnight high. Wednesday’s U.S. session resolved Tuesday’s overnight weak high as investors flocked to momentum. The tone continued through Friday as the Federal Reserve’s policy shift on inflation bolstered gains in all 11 of the S&P 500 sectors. Overall, in light of the short-term, momentum-driven activity and poor structure on both sides of the market, the risks for a near-term correction have increased. That said, heavily-weighted index constituents are still in an uptrend and all sectors saw gains. So, as of now, the path of least resistance is still up. However, if momentum was to fade, there’s the potential for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the recent anxiety-driven activity. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unveiled a strategy which will target an average rate of inflation of 2%. In a statement on the development, Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe Ltd., noted: “Whereas previously, the Fed would be willing to hike interest rates as the labour market approached estimates of maximum employment, Powell has made it clear that uncertainty around these estimates mean that they will not be relied upon as much in the future. Instead, Powell stated ‘employment can run at or above real-time estimates of its maximum level without causing concern, unless accompanied by signs of unwanted increases in inflation’. This is a clear break with prevailing policy wisdom going back as far as the 1980s - its significance is difficult to overstate.” The development comes after the Fed’s monetary policy, after the last financial crisis, failed to stimulate economic activity sufficiently to lift inflation over 2%. As a result, this new shift means the Federal Reserve will tolerate hot inflation and allow employment to drop below inflationary levels. Key Events: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index; CoreLogic Home Price Index; ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Reports; Vehicle Sales; ADP National Employment; Challenger Layoffs; Jobless Claims; International Trade and Trade Balance; Non-farm Payrolls. Recent News: Economic recovery remains tenuous as pandemic fear persists. bit.ly Banks eye layoffs as short-term crisis ends, long-term costs emerge. reut.rs August surge in corporate bond issuance mostly re-financed old debt. bit.ly Per Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC), margin debt broke out, and that’s bullish. bit.ly European banks suffer more than US peers in the corona crisis. bit.ly BlackRock Inc Investment Institute’s (NYSE: BLK) 2020 midyear outlook. bit.ly Energy and consumer-dependent industries see most downgrades. bit.ly Retail activity in the options market is up 75% over the past 18 months. bit.ly TTM loan default rate climbs for 8 straight months, retail hits 19%. bit.ly Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) joins Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) TikTok bid. reut.rs Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) finds flaws in fuselage of Dreamliner; eight aircraft affected. reut.rs Venture funds are raising more than ever in 2020, and spending at a good pace, too. bit.ly Federal Reserve targets average inflation, signaling it will tolerate an overshoot. bloom.bg NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) end-markets boost revenue, a credit positive. bit.ly American Express Company’s (NYSE: AXP) acquisition of Kabbage, credit positive. bit.ly Denmark’s proposed special corporate tax is credit negative for the banking sector. bit.ly China moves ahead with its version of a central bank digital currency, Fed follows. bit.ly The PMI report shows V-shaped recovery in services and manufacturing sectors. bit.ly Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) said 25% layoffs may be permanent. bloom.bg Salesforce.com Inc (NYSE: FRM), Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN), and Honeywell International Inc (NYSE: HON) to join Dow index on August 31. bit.ly Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE: BBY) warns of slow sales after the work-from-home boom. reut.rs Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ: BYND) begins direct online sales of plant-based patties. reut.rs Gold closely linked to liquidity; the more money available, the higher gold trades. bloom.bg Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) launched its first fitness band. reut.rs Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) to pay more than $110 million in back taxes in France. reut.rs American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL) plans to cut 19,000 jobs in October. reut.rs Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER) plans to expand its services across Quebec. reut.rs Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) faces antitrust challenges from Indian sellers. reut.rs U.S. and China officials reaffirm commitment to Phase 1 trade deal in phone call. reut.rs Sentiment: 33.1% Bullish, 28.3% Neutral, 39.6% Bearish as of 8/26/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 4,263,904,049 as of 8/28/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 41% as of 8/28/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
Is History Rhyming?I posted this idea last year and I've been amazed at how similar the giant broadening formation has rhymed from the 60's-70s. I have several other forecasts that involve at least a 50% retracement from the March rally and this helps to paint that picture quite well. Will the Fed step in more heavily if we have another sell off? Does history repeat and we break up into a hyper bubble? One of my forecasts involves us retracing the entire corona rally and taking out March lows. I believe the Fed would step in very heavily in such an event but what happens if we retrace just 50%? Keep an eye on this giant broadening pattern and be prepared to change your bias based on which direction we break. Eventually we're going much lower or much higher. Original forecast from Nov 19:
TVC:DJI
by gghsusa
3
THE WEEK AHEAD: GPS; SLV, GDX/GDXJ, XOP, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: GPS (37/82/17.0%) is really the only earnings announcement that interests me from a volatility contraction perspective. Pictured here is a September 18th skinny short strangle, which was paying 2.03 as of Friday close. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR IMPLIED >35% AND WHERE THE OCTOBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (50/61/17.4%) GDX (22/47/14.1%) XLE (21/37/11.6%) GDXJ (19/55/16.7%) EWZ (18/45/13.2%) XOP (14/49/14.0%) Juice as a function of stock price resides in SLV (17.4%), followed by GDXJ (16.7%), GDX (14.1%), and XOP (14.0%). BROAD MARKET: QQQ (23/28/8.2%) IWM (23/29/8.4%) EFA (17/21/5.6%) SPY (16/22/5.8%) IWM/RUT is where the premium is, relatively speaking, followed by the QQQ's. DIVIDEND YIELDERS: XLU (18/22/6.8%) EWA (18/22/7.8%) EWZ (18/45/13.2%) IYR (17/22/6.9%) EFA (16/22/5.6%) SPY (16/22/5.8%) HYG (15/13/3.3%) TLT (14/16/4.6%) EMB (11/10/2.8%) Brazil ... again?!
G
by NaughtyPines
RUSSELL 2000, Possible Wedge Forming, These Are Important Level!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis where we are looking at the RUSSELL 2000 Index 4-hour timeframe perspective, the recent events, the current formational structure, what to expect the next times and how to handle the upcoming situation appropriately. Similarly to other major indices, the RUSSELL 2000 has recovered from its corona-breakdowns seen this year but it is still below its all-time-high where the SPX already formed new highs which are still waiting here, furthermore we have the divergence between the real economy and stock-market already going as well as people already talking about second lock-down measures which can affect the market similarly to these breakdowns seen this year because the real economy will decrease which can have an effect on the stock market as well, therefore, I detected the importances which we should consider in the current index structure here. Looking at my chart you can watch there that the index is getting slower with its upside volatility which can indicate a reversal into the other direction, furthermore, the index is forming a possible rising-wedge-formation which is often a bearish reversal formation pointing for more downside to be reached in the schedule, the formation is marked in blue within my chart and the index already touched the lower and upper boundary several times to form a coherent wave-count here which will be completed with the final wave E marked in my chart where also strong resistance is lying which can be a turning point in this environment when bearish pressure increases there this can lead to a test of the lower boundary again and a final confirmation of this possible rising wedge formation which will be fully confirmed when the price closes below the lower boundary as it is marked within my chart. Although such formations can sometimes invalidate bullish to the upside the bearish case should be more expected here as the other factors with slower momentum and resistance coming together. When the index confirms this more likely scenario and activates downside targets at 1300 in the structure it has to be elevated how the index continues from there and if a possible recovery with back-up is possible or more decline will follow. When a back-up is considered it is from high importance that corona decreases and real economy begin to grow again otherwise this will lead to a speculative environment as many retailers coming into the market while smart-money staying on the sidelines, these facts make it clearer that we should not fully underestimate the bearish breakdown scenarios here in order to be prepared on when changes occur to take appropriate action. In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, all the best! "The market is a procrastinator looking forward." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
TVC:RUT
by VincePrince
3
August 16 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Balance Area; Russell $1,600 Supply Area; Stronger Selling; Buyer’s Non-Committal; Market Still In Uptrend. Technical: Broad-market equity indices digested prior advances, evidenced by the non-separation of value. Recapping last week’s action, Monday's higher open on pandemic relief efforts coming from the White House was erased on a liquidation to Friday’s range. Buyers later responded, establishing a v-bottom before resolving the contract adjusted all-time-high, overnight. After investors shrugged off news of simmering geopolitical tensions, Tuesday’s U.S. session gave back all advances, liquidating enough to repair the poor structure below $3,330. Alongside news of resilient fuel demand, relative strength shifted to the Nasdaq Wednesday, with equity indices squeezing shorts and erasing the low-volume area left behind Tuesday’s liquidation. Thursday’s overnight activity caught up to Wednesday’s divergent delta, drifting lower alongside uninspiring political news. During the U.S. session, the S&P managed to pop higher, to and through the resting liquidity at the $3,375 area, before testing lower and closing in-range, neutral. The session’s narrative carried forward with Friday’s session ending the week in-balance and range. In light of dull participation, the risks of a pullback have increased. Buyers lack the conviction to follow-through and sellers are beginning to step up on the liquidations that get rid of those weak buyers. The Russell 2000 closed the week off lower after coming to the $1,600 supply area. The Nasdaq, despite regaining relative strength, failed to make a new high, balancing out into week-end. To see a positive change in tone, there needs to be separation of value beyond the all-time-high. Until then, the potential exists for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the emotional, momentum-driven participants. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: NY Fed Manufacturing; NAHB Housing Market Index; Building Permits; Housing Starts; Initial Claims; Philly Fed Business Index; Leading Index; PMI; Existing Home Sales. Fundamental: Senate leaves until September without coronavirus relief deal. bit.ly Coronavirus vaccine won’t become widely available to Americans until 2021. bit.ly U.S. retail sales slow in July; obstacles mount for nascent economic recovery. reut.rs Judge rejects a General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) case against Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU). reut.rs Fortnite maker sues Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL). cnn.it United States petroleum inventories show a gradual rebalancing. reut.rs Economy not enjoying a V-shape recovery, but is instead on the verge of a W-shape. bit.ly Trump’s executive orders to shore up the economy will not be sufficient. bit.ly ARK Invest CEO and CIO recaps recovery, reasons optimistic perspective. bit.ly JOLTS shows far fewer jobs added in than the department's NFP report. bit.ly Market avoids the Great Recession’s calamities, but economy struggling. bit.ly Credit quality worsened again as the effects of the pandemic continued to weight. bit.ly Trading volumes remain elevated, even as volatility returns to more normal levels. bit.ly Post-election regime should stimulate growth through capital friendly policies. bit.ly New York’s statewide positive test rate has remained at 1% for two months. bit.ly The new economy stocks drive markets, but recovery won’t be v-shaped. bit.ly The budget deal changes the way financial markets look at the eurozone. bit.ly Producer prices rose by the most since October 2018, following June decline. bit.ly Weak revenue environment will lead to fiscal austerity and higher leverage. bit.ly American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) in talks with Kabbage over acquisition. bit.ly Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) relaunches Twitch Prime as Prime Gaming. tcrn.ch Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces 5-for-1 stock split on August 31. bit.ly Saudi Aramco sees a recovery in global oil demand, justifying export prices. reut.rs COVID-19 will accelerate supply chain shifts in a more fragmented trade system. bit.ly General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) jumps ship to join startup Stripe. reut.rs Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to produce 1B vaccines by next year. reut.rs Court reverses antitrust ruling against Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM). reut.rs Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) curbs ads by U.S. news publishers with political ties. reut.rs Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) to cut debt before boosting output. reut.rs Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX cancellations rise, deliveries drop as crises drags on. reut.rs U.S.-China trade deal in fine shape, White House’s Kudlow says. reut.rs Gold has had its worst day in 7 years, but investors remain bullish. bit.ly The U.S. already is feeling the impacts of ending unemployment benefits. bit.ly Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) bid for GM’s credit card business. reut.rs Microsoft Inc (NASDAQ: MSFT) dual-screen Android phone to arrive September 10. reut.rs Airbnb plans to confidentially file for an IPO in August. reut.rs U.S. energy bankruptcy surge continues on credit, oil-price squeeze. reut.rs Fed moves too far from mandate, fine tuning poses increased risks. bit.ly Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) eyes Sears, J.C. Penney stores for fulfillment. on.wsj.com One-third of American renters expected to miss their august payment. bloom.bg More than a third of Americans wouldn’t take a free and approved COVID vaccine. bit.ly How did COVID-19 and stabilization policies affect spending, employment. bit.ly COVID-19’s impact on commercial jet fuel demand is significant and uneven. bit.ly Coronavirus shutdowns reduce consumption, shift energy costs to individuals. on.wsj.com U.K.’s faster-than-expected recovery prompts BOE to lower impairments forecast. bit.ly Intercontinental Exchange Inc’s (NYSE: ICE) Ellie Mae acquisition is credit negative. bit.ly U.S. loan to Eastman Kodak Co (NYSE: KODK) won’t proceed if allegations remain. reut.rs Shares of major airlines rose on increases in the U.S. TSA screening numbers. reut.rs Federal Reserve announces post-stress test capital ratios for large banks. reut.rs Sentiment: 30.3% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 42.1% Bearish as of 8/12/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 5,235,179,076 as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 43% as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): OANDA:XAUUSD NASDAQ:XAU AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL TVC:USOIL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
ridethepig | A -50% correction for LYV in play📍 The best move, since the highs are defended from the earlier developments is not really to get into the heart of the issue. Rather we need to discuss the configuration and how to build the trade around the freefall. LYV (Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.) is particularly exposed to pockets of further lockdowns which we are already starting to see in some states. As will sadly become clear approaching elections is in a certain sense the vaccine promotion will become more about substance rather than headlines. And now, I ask you; why does this matter for sellers? The headlines driving businesses exposed to social distancing restrictions are coming to the end of the dead-cat-bounce. It is unlikely we see moderations of social distancing until early-mid 2021 and depending on the severity of the second wave, 2022 expectations can be hit badly meaning instead of finding a strong bid at the lows we can enter into an inertia free fall until we clear the virus completely. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
NYSE:LYVShort
by ridethepig
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