RUT remaining bearish against this resistance level
RUT us forming an extended wave v that points the wave (v) upside target of 161.8% retracement at 1430 level. Wave v must hold at 1542 to the the Corrective Flat Pattern valid. Expect this terminal rally into our final resistance zone before the decline starts.
Notice that the RUT is weaker than the S&P. Will the coming pullback continue this trend and see bear markets in both as US debt is shunned by global investors as a store of value?
RUSSELL 2000
RUSSELL Wave A or wave 1?From my last RUSSELL analysis I was mentioning the eventuality of an end of W5. This seems to happen now.
I am now looking at this downward leg which could a simple ABC correction if A bounces back at the level of the previous 4 wave...
Or if it slips lower confirming my theory of a bear market complex correction.
Is RUT uptrend a ZZ correction? Please commentI am definitely not an expert in Elliott Waves but for the first time I kind of see some patterns in the RUT futures.
The uptrend seems like a ZZ 5-3-5 typical corrective wave. If this confirms, it would mean it is part of a bigger ZZ corrective wave.
I'd like to have some feedback on this...
Thanks in advance!!
RUT 2nd Half Scale in RUT us forming an extended wave v that points the wave (v) upside target of 161.8% retracement at 1430 level. Wave v must hold at 1542 to the the Corrective Flat Pattern valid. Expect this terminal rally into our final resistance zone before the decline starts.
We are looking to scale in with 2nd half of bear put butterfly. For now, the 1481 should offer massive resistance that setups for a 10% decline. New Butterfly Spread 1330/1150/1030 Put Debit Butterfly expiring Aug 31st 2020.
May 31 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
2975-2900 Balance Area; Friday Spike.
Technical:
Risk-on sentiment in all major indices.
Monday gapped and accepted prices above the prior balance area.
Tuesday’s selling diverged from breadth and broad market sentiment.
Wednesday opened higher, reflecting underlying market sentiment in the prior session, but sold off immediately, testing and rejecting the prior balance area. After rejection, the market squeezed higher and closed above the open, the most positive outcome.
Thursday’s session continued higher, not supported by breadth and large lot activity.
Friday tested lower on news-driven intraday volatility, rejected, and then spiked higher into the close.
Opening within the spike, we balance and validate prices. Opening and remaining above the spike would be the most positive outcome. Opening below the spike base (i.e., $3030) would be the most negative outcome.
Taking out Friday’s low of $2992.00, important references on the downside include $2975 and $2860. A successful break above $3065.50, important references on the upside include $3090, $3111, and $3135.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
Key Events: Nonfarm Employment; Initial Claims; Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Surveys; Trade Deficit; Factory Orders; Vehicle Sales; Productivity And Costs; Construction Spending.
Ratings agency Fitch suggests Global Recession is bottoming out. bit.ly
Michael Burry may be wrong about the index bubble. bit.ly
House loosens PPP rules; Treasury, SBA set aside more funds for lenders. on.wsj.com
Airlines tackle social distancing with new rules. bit.ly
Airport traffic picks up as lockdowns ease. bit.ly
Which economies are reopening and why COVID killed globalization. bit.ly
Weak demand curbs China factory activity. yhoo.it
Bezos buying a stake in U.K. digital supply chain startup. cnb.cx NASDAQ:AMZN
Protests rage across America. cnn.it
OPEC, Russia bargain over extended output cuts until end of 2020. reut.rs
ECB to raise quantitative easing purchases under PEPP program. bit.ly
Investment-grade bond issuance to slow considerably. bit.ly
PPP failed to get money to industries and areas most in need. bit.ly
Lumber is higher on increased demand (i.e., home repairs, renovations, building). bloom.bg
Home sales drop 18%, while decline in inventory pushes prices to a record high. cnb.cx
Remote work to spark a housing boom in suburbs and smaller cities. on.wsj.com
Energy Transfer LP ($ET) warns of coming job cuts. reut.rs NYSE:ET
Kohl’s ($KSS) eyes trouble as sales plummet, digital business falls short. bit.ly NYSE:KSS
Tensions with China escalate over Hong Kong’s autonomy. bit.ly
U.S. considers COVID-19 coronavirus bill next month. bit.ly
COVID-19 crisis may trigger a rolling pension collapse. bit.ly
Study supports the wide usage of Gilead’s ($GILD) Remdesivir. bit.ly NASDAQ:GILD
Moderna begins new COVID-19 vaccine study. on.mktw.net NASDAQ:MRNA
Lower aggregate taxation; higher taxes will come; no bailout of pre-covid junk. bit.ly
NVIDIA ($NVDA) faces positive results, outlook. bit.ly NASDAQ:NVDA
Cboe Global Markets ($CBOE) expansion to Canada a credit positive. bit.ly AMEX:CBOE
Fairfield, Alabama’s bankruptcy brings back familiar Chapter 9 themes. bit.ly
Negative April credit card ABS performance confirms virus risks. bit.ly
Global venture funding through the virus, late-stage stays strong. bit.ly
Nasdaq CIO on policing foreign listings. bit.ly
Sports betting stocks see a surge, unhurt by pandemic. bit.ly
Money market inflows pause, validating rotation into risk. bit.ly
Discussion regarding the need to implement an OPEC+ exit strategy. reut.rs
Former Cisco Chair and CEO talks leading, growing through a crisis. bit.ly NASDAQ:CSCO
Data, statistics on how the virus is impacting local business revenues. bit.ly
Expedia Group ($EXPE) commits $275M to help industry rebound. bit.ly NASDAQ:EXPE
Rising home sales show American’s are looking past the virus. bit.ly
Dollar General ($DG), Dollar Tree ($DLTR) to outperform earnings. bit.ly NYSE:DG NASDAQ:DLTR
Sentiment: 33.1% Bullish, 24.8% Neutral, 42.1% Bearish as of 5/31/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 2,565,182,968 as of 5/29/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 52.3% as of 5/29/2020. bit.ly
Product Analysis:
ES: AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX
NQ: NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX
RTY: AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT
YM: AMEX:DIA TVC:DJI
NYA: TVC:NYA
GC: AMEX:GLD
CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:USL AMEX:DBO
NG: AMEX:UNG
ZB: NASDAQ:TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
RUT signficant resistance ahead The same predicament exists in the RUT as the SPX. Is this 5-wave impulse currently labeled as wave (B) actually all of higher degree wave (2)? A move back below 1200 suggest the shown count is correct. We are looking for a completion of wave C with a decline lower towards 1000.
RUT wave B Rally facing SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE RUT wave (B) rally on-going moving towards the underside of a 4 decade support-turned resistance at 1432-1542. If this is the case, bulls need to get a move on to keep the motive-looking effort going. Will the coming bear market continue this trend and see bear markets in both as US debt is shunned by global central banks as a store of value?
ridethepig | Smoke Screens & MirrorsAfter a ruthless and cunning retrace from politicians and central bank talking heads, this piercing rally is coming to an end after reaching the full retrace target at 1250. Buyers, who would like to occupy the jurisdiction above have tried to do so in a crafty way (since the typical path looks out of the question as long as the world remains in lockdown); they have occupied the lows, driven the late sellers out of it and thus created space for this flank manoeuvre.
The RUT position arises after the typical small cap under-perofmance from the panic flows:
The analysis of this position shows us that sellers are once again ready to conduct another leg lower, but also the quick-witted buyer will know to cover on the contact of 1250. As long as this resistance holds, the advance cannot be administered and the nature of the retrace remains corrective rather than impulsive.
A fresh round of bankruptcies will be coming over the next few weeks, I am eyeballing the 16,000 lows in DOW for reference which will carry NQ, S&P, RUT, CAC, DAX, FTSE, NI and the rest of Global Equities.
Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Alcoa maybe interesting for 10 year long term playAlcoa this morning was trading at a price to book of .2. It has broken the immediate downtrend resistance. This morning it was at support from 1975 and held. It is the most oversold it has ever been in its history. Might be interesting to begin scaling a position as the market goes dow