Are small caps telling us something?Disclaimer: The above is just an idea for your entertainment, not a trading advice!
RUSSELL 2000
IWM Volume TrendVolume spike very likely soon! Trend has been:VOLUME UP=PRICES DOWN. Watch for initial divergence where IWM could spike before correction. Eyes on that volume! This is not necessarily a good place to go long on IWM but it certainly could make a strong move up before any correction. I am positioned mostly short on market but I've had a small "long" hedge in IWM call options. Small caps have been lagging behind market oddly- I cannot discern if this is a red flag warning to the entire market or small caps are about to catch up. The volume certainly tells a story worth reading and the the 36,000ft view tells me be very careful up here- market pressing upward with major decrease in volume is a recipe for a major PIVOT down.
Russel 2k Long BreakoutIdea is to go long the Russel 2000 on further strength. Resistance has been tested multiple times with a consolidation (bullflag) near the upper range boundary. 4hr candle close has to be above recent high to enter longs.
Russell 2000 Price Forecast- All Time Highs?With new all time highs for everyone else, The Russell feels left out. If this beast gets too emotional, and wants to join in, I believe this is how it would look : )
- This is not financial advice. For Artistic purposes only.
$US2000 $Russell2000 Triggered ShortBusted high sloped pitchfork rail. $SPY $VXX $IWM $QQQ $AAPL $MMM
RUSSELL 2000 - More Overvalued than During 2000? - #ValueCyclesThat's right, more overvalued than during year 2k and the subsequent tech wreck that ensued.
How?
Simple, measure the RUT against something that is not transient, i.e. in this case silver.
Frustrated with the back and forth of the market during late 2018-2019?
Not if you were measuring assets correctly, for those with the forethought to do so, they are sitting on a healthy 30%+ gain since August, with plenty of upside remaining.
Buy and Hold is dead, get smart or go broke.
#ValueCycles
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Head and Shoulders breakdown confirmation A head and shoulders and a double top are visible on the 30-minute chart all the way to the 4-hour chart. Today's rally retested the neckline of the head and shoulders and failed. This is a very bearish signal. If it cannot break the neckline I suspect a further leg down. This along with underperformance of small caps relative to the broader market has to lead me to take a short position.
RUSSELL 2000 (RUT) BEARISH SIGNAL SMAsThis index just trigered a triple death cross signal (10 SMA under 50 SMA under 200 SMA). The triple cross has happened at the same time (very unusual).
Wait and see with a bearish bias until proven wrong. To be noted that the Russell 2000 index usually warns ahead of troubles in the big cap indexes.
The bear case The Russell 2000 usually leads the SPX. This is because small businesses ramp up and grow faster when the economy is growing and are more likely to fail if the economy is in recession. This chart shows that in May the Russell began to underperform the SPX measuring from the beginning of the cycle.
IWM ($RUT) Reverse WedgieI have a few bearish followers, so just to give them hope, here's a chart....
Small caps (IWM, $RUT) have formed an expanding downward wedgie (or reverse wedgie as I like to call it), and it finished the day right at the decision line. If it stays in the wedgie, then we get another tank next week, if they pump it with futures then it breaks the wedgie and up we go.
Reverse wedgies are typically a reversal pattern, but not always. Also, IWM is oversold on MFI, and bounced off the support area.
WHat happens the following week depends on China talks, so one week at a time.
ISM Manufacturing index contractionDrop below 50 = economic contraction. What's concerning is market has been making all-time highs while ISM has been going down. I interpret that as a fundamental problem and as a friend once told me, "Fundamentals are king...eventually".
RUT update for week ending 27 September 2019Weekly Data Summary Suggests:
Current Weekly Trend is Bearish
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1485.51 - 1555.43
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, there is a projected weekly target price of 1653.52
Price movement has returned to the Trending Moving Average this suggests either a stall while averages catch up to the prices or a turn in the prices in the opposite direction
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current weekly reading of: Neutral Bull
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current weekly reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 weeks is currently: Bearish
Price Consolidation has formed between: 1506.77 - 1590.5
Current chart score suggests a Bullish Market is present.
Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend is Bearish
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1506.64 - 1534.32
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, there is a projected daily target price of 1543.02
Price movement has returned to the Trending Moving Average this suggests either a stall while averages catch up to the prices or a turn in the prices in the opposite direction
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bear
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bear
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bearish
Prices have broken through the consolidation low
Current chart score suggests a Bearish Market is present.
Comments:
Mixed sentiment between weekly and daily charts. Daily chart maybe bearish at this moment, however it may be prepared to turn again and continue back up. This is based on the divergence on the indicators between the stronger trend (week) and weaker trend (day).
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
RUT update for 25 September 2019Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend is Bullish
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1536.28 - 1565.02
Price movement has returned to the Trending Moving Average this suggests either a stall while averages catch up to the prices or a turn in the prices in the opposite direction
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bearish
Price Consolidation has re-established itself between: 1530.33 - 1590.5
Current chart score suggests a Bearish Market is present.
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
RUT update for 24 September 2019Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend is Bull
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1519.45896 - 1547.72104
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, there is a projected daily target price of
Price movement has slowed below the average trade range and are suggesting either a stall for averages to catch the prices or a turn in the prices in the opposite direction
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bearish
Prices have broken through the consolidation low
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest closing longs and protecting profit.
Current chart score suggests a Bearish Market is present.
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
RUT Update for 23 September 2019
Daily for 23 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection:
HMA: Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Neutral Bull
5 RSI: 5 day relative strength appears Bearish
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1541.88 - 1590.5
Price-Trend: .81x ATR
Comments: Time to take profit? The prices have closed under the 8MA, usually a sign of profit taking.
Prices are caught in consolidation.
Neutrality has entered into the indicators and the 5 day RSI is bearish.
Might be time to lock in some profits.
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
