US Small Cap 2000 - Bears are in controlUS2000 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1785 (stop at 1805)
Buying pressure from 1720 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 1730 and 1630
Resistance: 1780 / 1830 / 1875
Support: 1725 / 1630 / 1530
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
RUSSELL 2000
Russell 2000 Index Descending Triangle to cause a major breakdowDescending Triangle has formed on Weekly for the Russell 2000 Index.
The moving averages are all touching and seem to be at deciding point 200 = 21 =7 MA
We need to wait for the official breakdown which will take the price to a target of 828.
There are major warning signals for a Recession in 2024 with the inflationary pressures in the US, UK and Russia.
We haven't seen these levels in decades and with interest rates on the constant rise, this will attract investors to fixed income assets and deposits int he bank.
However, the Recession is one aspect. The markets are actually setting up for a meltdown. We just need to wait for the catalyst to send it.
Until then, we keep our eyes opened for possible opportunities.
Russell 2000 Index - EXPLAINED - What, Why, Where, How?Small cap stocks, Penny stocks and pink sheets are the high adrenaline stocks investors play games in.
They are generally the cheaper, highly volatile, some are illiquid and can fluctuate 50% - 1,000% a day.
From the Wolf of Wallstreet glamorizing the potential returns for investors to your every day salesman broker trying to sell you the next winner.
But what is the Russell 2000 Index and what should we know about it?
I’m going to sum it up a bit of information about how it works and important facts you need to know
Enjoy!
WHAT IS IT?
The Russell 2000 Index (listed in 1984) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of small-cap publicly traded companies in the United States.
It is named after the Russell Investment Group, which operates the index.
The share price can vary significantly, as it is made up of a diverse range of small-cap publicly traded companies.
MARKET CAP
Small-cap stocks are generally ones with a market capitalization of between:
$50 million and $2 billion.
CRITERIA TO LIST STOCKS
There are a few criteria that needs to be met to qualify for the inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index:
• The company must be a publicly traded U.S. company.
• It must market capitalization of at least $50 million.
• Must be ranked in the bottom 2,000 of the Russell 3000 Index, based on market capitalization.
• Must meet certain liquidity requirements, including having a minimum average daily trading volume of at least 250 shares over the previous six months.
• Must have a minimum of one year of trading history.
WHAT IT CONSISTS OF
The index is made up of the smallest 2,000 publicly traded companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 98% of the total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the United States.
HOW IT OPERATES
The index is reconstituted annually, with new companies added and removed based on their market capitalization and other factors.
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
The Russell 2000 Index has a high level of volatility (greater price swings) and low liquidity (ease of flow of orders) compared to other large cap stocks.
DANGERS WITH THE INDEX
Currency risk: When the US dollar drops the index can follow
Diversification: There is no sector for the stocks. When the index drops the stocks follow.
Liquidity: You might find difficulties finding buyers or sellers to ease in or out of your positions.
Volatility: The jumpiness in the market is highly erratic.
Lack of analyst analysis: You’ll hardly see news coverage via the media which means, you could be left in the dark with what is going on in the companies.
Liquidation risk: You have a higher chance at being in a company that is about to be liquidated due to financial issues, no growth, manipulation and cooking the books.
Economic issues: When global economies collapse, stocks drop with it. Small cap stocks are no exceptions. This can affect the investment prospects
.
US Small Cap 2000 - Bears are in controlUS Small Cap 2000 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1790 (stop at 1810)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 1730 and 1630
Resistance: 1780 / 1830 / 1875
Support: 1725 / 1630 / 1555
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
From "Hovercraft" to IHS pattern? WAY EARLY but interesting 2cDo you see it? $DJI
Is it easier to see on weekly?
The "Hovercraft" patter COULD be a precursor to an Inverted Head & Shoulder!
See it now?
IT'S WAAAY early & it doesn't mean it'll happen
$ETH had one recently & went kaput
Can $DJI #BEAR be ending? Time will tell
IMO chances are NOT for
BUT
As stated MANY TIMES #markets are NOT logical
What about $NDX $SPX & $RUT?
Short answers
no, bleh & actually looks like head & shoulder recently lol
🟨 January effect - SPX vs RUTWHAT IT IS
Since 1988 the Russell 2000 has outperfomed the SPX 73.5% of the time during the end of December into 1st of January.
Classical David vs Goliath. Read more below👇
THE DETAILS
Testing from 1988 to 2021 the period of 15th Dec through to 1st Jan, we see that Russell 2000 has outperformed the SPX 25 out of all 34 years.
This is a win rate of 73.5% . Moreover, the times the Russel outperforms the SPX were greatly oversized when the Russell underperforms. Gains in the years of outperfmrance are 5 times bigger. Totals outperformance vs Total underperformance is (42.80% vs -7.81%).
And there was only 1 year (1988) when there was a loss larger than 1%. The last few years we have not been so consistent but it is worth the consideration.
RUT Short Idea -AGGRESSIVE- An Extremely aggressive short idea on the RUT if one didn't nail the Mother of All Trend Lines on the S&P500
Regarding support as resistance w/ Hourly Hidden Bearish Divergence on MACD + RSI , regarding Fast EMA as Resistance
Daily Double Top Confirmation Line Broken
Russel 2000 Bear Market?It seems by all indications that we are heading into a bear market. With raising interest rates, tapering, and shrinking of balance sheets, we will see the Russel take at least a 20% tumble from the current price. The 100MA puts the Russel 2000 at around 1400, and further down on 200MA. A couple of key points:
Only 40% of Russel 2000 are above 50-Day MA.
Only 45% of Russel 2000 are above 50-Day MA.
MACD is crossed and looks bearish.
Fed slowing down its QE.
I was a bit curious why the Russel 2000 took a dip in 2018-2019 with the economy doing so well then. The one thing that I could overlay to make some sense to it was the Federal Funds Rate went up to 2.42%
Even mainstream investors like Jon Najarian has taken short positions in the IWM for February. The economics speak it, the Fed speaks it, the indicators speak it, and now even mainstream economists are accepting there is some market shaking coming.
Stocks can go higher, but how much higher?I will start by sharing a Twitter poll, which shows the sentiment we are seeing now. Most think we are going lower. Therefore, the market could go higher in the short term. twitter.com
I believe our target is the critical breakdown level that was never retested on the chart above. The maximum upside is the R3 Monthly Pivot + Yearly Pivot, which will most likely reject the price. Recession or no recession, the market has room to the upside for reasons different from what most people think. Won't get into these things here, as I want to keep this idea simply about the key targets I have for stocks.
For Nasdaq, it is hard to tell how high we will go as there is more than one target. For the S&P500 and the Russell below, the targets are very clear. However, for QQQ - NDX - NQ, more than one gap must be filled.
Based on the above, I expect the market to top about 6% higher from here, and potentially as much as 10% for the Nasdaq 100.
Overall market still in bottoming processA good leading indicator is comparing the Russel 2000 against the S&P 500.
For the last 6 years, every time the market bottoms its been with small cap stocks outperforming the general market.
And RUSSELL:RUT has been outperforming the SP:SPX since January
Just another thing to keep an eye on.
RTY Daily MFI overboughtSomething I noticed while flipping through some charts, RTY1! daily MFI is overbought along with GM, PCAR, YM1! (Dow futures), Dow components like WMT, CAT, YNH, etc along with XLF (financial ETF).
Definitely not chasing a Fed pump even if my 3 hr indicators show oversold. My favorite stocks are overbought, that's a signal to take a pause. Will be shorting when 3 hr indicators go overbought.
BTC, SPX, RUT wide gap from HYG. We're up for a rude awakening dear fellows,
it came to our attention the monthly chart of HYG, BTCUSDT, SPX, RUT. they all belong to the same class of speculative assets.
of them, HYG is likely to have the greatest demand for liquidity as it lives out of refinancing its cash flow, let alone its debt.
notice how
1. they are synchronized in what concerns the bottoms
2. HYG renewed the lows at each new bottom, never the highs at each top.
3. the others did the opposite
this mismatch opened up a wide gap in the logarithmic scale of the y axis.
the logarithmic scale shows how much percentually current level still can fall.
thus, BTC, SPX and RUT still can fall more than they did already until they catch up with HYG.
that is precisely the case of FED keeping current policy "until something brakes".
that would be a rude, late, awakening for anyone not knowing where to look at for market health check.
best regards.
Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply: Discounted to 500 MVA & @support"Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply" ratio
1) It moves in a horizental trend in the long-term.
2) %20 discounted compared to 500 days MVA.
3) Nearly touched a major long-term horizental support.
Of course it can also move more downwards if the crisis/war deepens but we can say that the probability of upwards move is more likely.
First target: 0.095-0.100
Is $SPX bound for a crash or a small bounceI'm torn about this. from the top to down move thus far, the SPX has had small bounces along the way, as buyers come in, ride up the rally, then get burned.
My sentiment right now is that there is little tolerance to be burned for the third time, and data/world news appear to be getting worse at the moment, not better.
Of course these things can "resolve" themselves in the next couple of weeks but... in which case the SPX may rally a bit to around the 3920 level. The technical case for this is the fact that we're oversold and the MACD appears to want to make a turn higher from where it is right now on the daily.
But the case against this is that, apart from the various poor news out of NORD, China, Apple, Bonds and the like, it's never a good thing when SPX closes at a new low for what has been a very bearish 2022. The downside target at 3400 and 3200 can come pretty fast, with little to no resistance along the way, with the exception of 3550, as far as i can tell.
I'm bearish and will be looking at the moves in the next couple of sessions very carefully.
Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility for Russel is at 4.3%, increasing from 3.76% last week, located on 70th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 16.7% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 1746
BOT 1620
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 28% chance that the previous high from last week of 1830 is going to be touched
- There is a 70% chance that the previous low from last week 1660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.9% for bull candles and 2.95% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
RTY - Reason Why I didn't short yesterdayFirst of all, I should've known EUro PMI was coming out, oops.
Anyways, I didn't short yesterday because RSI was touching oversold and this drop was already the same size as the previous drop. (Two red arrows) The fact that the drop is accelerating is bad news.
Prefer to fade into the rally on US2000USDUS2000USD0 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1860 (stop at 1895)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 1775 and 1760
Resistance: 1815 / 1830 / 1840
Support: 1800 / 1790 / 1775
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Selling rallies on US2000USDUS2000USD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1880 (stop at 1910)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at oversold extremes. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 1790 and 1730
Resistance: 1830 / 1935 / 2025
Support: 1785 / 1730 / 1640
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'