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RUSSELL 2000

RTY UpdateThis morning's selloff sent all indicators to neutral. Everything was overbought last week in a weird melt up. ES, NQ, RTY all have similar indicator patterns. I'm hoping the indicators start cycling from overbought to oversold again, because that's the easiest time to make money. I get the weird feeling we see a bounce tomorrow then only a mild drop Wed, but who knows. Market could completely tank again, lol, but at this point I think 75 is priced in for the next Fed meeting. This week is all about the CPI and market reaction to it. I don't think indicators will matter much. Really don't feel like trading this week. I shifted my BITO (shitcoin) puts to a lower strike and next week's expiration since BTC tends to tank on weekends and CPI numbers coming out Wed. Just a small play, a couple grand including today's profits.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Short term bottom on Russell2000?Trade Idea: Selling EURJPY Reasoning: EURJPY to continue lower? Broken trend and EUR under pressure Entry Level: 1752 Take Profit Level: 1794 Stop Loss: 1741.5 Risk/Reward: 4.15:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:US2000Long
by Signal_Centre
Daily Market Update for 7/8Summary: Employment data on Friday showed a better-than-expect labor market with Payrolls far exceeding the forecast. The strong labor market opens the door for the Fed to continue its aggressive rate hikes to control inflation. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 8, 2022 Facts: +0.12%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 74%, Body: 63% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, good closing range Bad: Lower volume on gain Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Medium green body with long upper wick, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.96, slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.15%), RUT (-0.01%), VIX (-5.52%) Sector List: Health (XLV +0.30%) and Technology (XLK +0.05%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.47%) and Materials (XLB -0.98%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Employment data on Friday showed a better-than-expect labor market with Payrolls far exceeding the forecast. The strong labor market opens the door for the Fed to continue its aggressive rate hikes to control inflation. The Nasdaq rose by +0.12% while the other major indexes fell. The candle has a 63% green body underneath a long upper wick resulting in a 74% closing range. Volume was lower than the previous day. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.15%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by -0.08%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed the day flat, declining just -0.01%. Only three of the eleven S&P sectors gained. Health (XLV +0.30%) and Technology (XLK +0.05%) were the best two sectors for the day. Communications (XLC -0.47%) and Materials (XLB -0.98%) had the biggest losses. Nonfarm Payrolls for June grew by 372,000 compared to the consensus forecast of 268,000. The Unemployment Rate remained at 3.6%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by -0.13%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices gained while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices followed Treasuries lower. Brent Oil rose to $105 a barrel. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) fell by -5.52%. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.768. The CNN Fear & Greed Index inched further from Extreme Fear, but is still in the Fear range, far from Neutral. Three of the big six mega-caps gained. Tesla (TSLA) had the best gain, advancing by +2.54%. The stock had further gains after hours as news hit that Elon Musk pulled out of the Twitter purchase. Meta (FB) had the biggest decline of the six, falling by -0.76%. Five of the six closed above their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Tesla also topped the broader mega-cap list. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of that list with a -1.22% decline. Enphase Energy (ENPH) was the best stock in the Daily Update Growth List, gaining by +4.65% Friday. Twitter (TWTR) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -5.10%. Twitter moved lower after hours for the same reason Tesla moved higher. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no significant economic news or earnings reports scheduled for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq briefly rose above the 50d moving average but closed below the line. If the five-day trend line continues into Monday, that would mean a +2.29% gain. A continuation of the one-day trend line points to a +0.54% gain. Returning to the trend line from the 6/16 low would result in a -1.15% decline to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Analysts are needing to reconsider again what actions the Fed might take considering a much stronger labor market than they initially expected. Despite news of big tech hiring freezes, payrolls grew in June as other sectors continue to hire. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/7Summary: Markets had a fourth day of gains for July, starting off the month green as analysts continue to judge if and when a recession will hit. Wells Fargo says the recession is already here. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, July 7, 2022 Facts: +2.28%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 90%, Body: 86% Green Good: Price rally all-day, high closing range, advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body, tiny upper and lower wicks. Advance/Decline: 2.21, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.50%), DJI (+1.12%), RUT (+2.43%), VIX (-2.43%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.61%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.58%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.07%) and Utilities (XLU -0.10%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets had a fourth day of gains for July, starting off the month green as analysts continue to judge if and when a recession will hit. Wells Fargo says the recession is already here. The Nasdaq climbed by +2.28% but on lower volume than the previous day. The 86% green body is in between two tiny wicks as the index closed the day with a 90% closing range. Prices rose throughout the day. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Small caps led the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +2.43%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +1.50% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced by +1.12%. Ten of the eleven S&P sectors gained. Energy (XLE +3.61%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.58%) were the top two sectors. Utilities (XLU -0.10%) was the only sector to decline. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were at 235,000, slightly worse than the consensus forecast of 230,000. The Trade Balance for May was at -85.50 billion, worse than the expected -84.90 billion. Crude Oil Inventories were much higher than expected, with 8.2 million barrels of excess for the week compared to the expectation for a -1 million-barrel shortfall. The US Dollar index (DXY) held its current level, declining by only -0.01% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose for a second day. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices advanced, narrowing the gap with short-term treasuries. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were flat for the day. Brent Oil rose back above $100 a barrel. The VIX Volatility index declined by -2.43%. The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.755. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved into the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 27.85. All big six mega-caps gained today with Tesla (TSLA) leading the pack, rising by +5.53%. All six closed above their 21d EMA and four of the six closed above their 50d MA. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) was the best mega-cap for the day, gaining +6.74%. Verizon Communications (VZ) declined by -1.55% to end up at the bottom of the list. In the Daily Update Growth List, it was Fastly (FSLY) with the best gain, advancing by +10.13%. The only declining stock on the list was DataDog (DDOG) which fell by -0.31%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow is the monthly employment data Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate are top indicators of the health of the labor market. The data will be released before the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose throughout the day to close just below the 50d MA. If the one-day trend line continues, that would meet up with the five-day trend line for a +1.03% gain tomorrow and a close above the 50d MA. If the index returns to the trend line from the 6/16 low, that would mean a -1.80% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors are likely looking for mediocre to worse labor market data for Friday. Worse-than-expected employment data could mean a more dovish fed in 2023 which is what institutions are pricing into the market now. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 7/6Summary: Investors' reaction to the Fed's meeting minutes from June resulted in a choppy indecisive day for the market. The US Dollar continued to climb against the Euro. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, July 6, 2022 Facts: +0.35%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 58%, Body: 12% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, good closing range Bad: Indecisive finish, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Indecisive spinning-top candle, thing green body in middle of two long wicks Advance/Decline: 0.54, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (+0.23%), RUT (-0.79%), VIX (-2.94%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.04%) and Technology (XLK +0.86%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.33%) and Energy (XLE -1.71%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors' reaction to the Fed's meeting minutes from June resulted in a choppy indecisive day for the market. The US Dollar continued to climb against the Euro. The Nasdaq rose by +0.35%, helped mostly by big tech. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has a thin 12% green body in the middle of equal upper and lower wicks. The candle represents a spinning top that indicates indecision in the market, a perfect way to explain today's session. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps pulled back with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining by -0.79%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +0.36% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.23%. Seven of the eleven S&P sectors gained. The defensive sector of Utilities (XLU +1.04%) was at the top, followed by the growth sector of Technology (XLK +0.86%), another representation of the mix of sentiment in the market. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.33%) and Energy (XLE -1.71%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Energy stocks continue to fall along with oil prices. The Services PMI for June was higher than expected. The 52.3 reading exceeded the 51.2 consensus forecast, showing more activity in Services than expected. JOLTs Job Openings were also higher than expected, coming in at 11.3 million compared to the expected 11 million. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose another +0.52%. The last time the index was this high was in 2002. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all moved higher today. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil dropped to $98.73 per barrel. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -2.94%. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.840. The CNN Fear & Greed index hasn't moved for a few days and is still in Extreme Fear. Of the big six mega-caps, only Tesla (TSLA) declined, falling by -0.57%. Microsoft (MSFT) had the biggest gain among the group, advancing by +1.28% and closing above its 50d MA and 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOG) also closed above the two key moving average lines, rising by +1.16% today. Pfizer (PFE) was the top mega-cap for today, gaining +2.15%. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) continue to be the bottom two mega-caps as the price of oil drops. They lost -1.32% and -1.80% today. The Daily Update Growth List was mostly decliners today. The best advance was by Beyond Meat (BYND) which rose by +6.03%. The biggest declines in the list were Chinese Stocks, with Futu Holdings leading the pack, declining by -11.02% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get more labor data tomorrow at 8:15a with the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for June. That comes before the weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30a. Imports/Exports and the Trade Balance data for May will also be published. Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose in a choppy session to close above the 21d exponential moving average line. If the one-day trend line continues into Thursday, we can expect a +1.02% gain. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 6/16 low point to a -0.47% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Fed minutes from June confirmed a very hawkish Fed that wants to act quickly before inflation becomes entrenched in the outlook for the public. On one hand, it means more rate hikes into 2023 are very possible. On the other hand, we can expect inflation to top at some point and start to come down. The two sentiments caused a mix of reactions today which could continue into the next Fed meeting at the end of this month. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
RTY UpdateStill tracking the overlay more or less, but it all depends on the reaction to the Fed meeting minutes this afternoon. Appears that's when it will break up or down. DUmped my calls, on open. Didn't like the way futures trading looked, actually a couple hundred on EWY but made money on the rest. Glad I flipped because GM tanked right after. Next time the market pumps garbage stocks, I guess I have to bet on garbage stocks. Asia is a bit unpredictable and transports are weak. Can't just bet on your favorite sectors I guess. If anything the right thing to do was flip EOD yesterday and short China, lol. PDD down quite a bit
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
5
Daily Market Update for 7/5Summary: The Euro fell sharply and Oil plunged to nearly $100 a barrel on fears of recession. Growth stocks rose as investors price in a possible reaction from the Fed to soften the landing for the economy. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, July 5, 2022 Facts: +1.75%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 87% Green Good: Closing range, big green candle on higher volume Bad: Lower low, close below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Mostly green body with a small lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.15, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.16%), DJI (-0.42%), RUT (+0.79%), VIX (+3.15%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.32%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.24%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -3.41%) and Energy (XLE -3.97%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Euro fell sharply and Oil plunged to nearly $100 a barrel on fears of recession. Growth stocks rose as investors price in a possible reaction from the Fed to soften the landing for the economy. The Nasdaq rose by +1.75% with volume higher than the previous day. The closing range of 100% comes above a thick green body covering 87% of the candle. The small lower wick, formed in a dip just after open that set the daily low lower than the previous day. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The results weren't as great for the other indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.42% as defensive and cyclical stocks took a hit on the recession fears. The S&P 500 (SPX) held onto a gain of +0.16% thanks to the big six mega-caps. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rose by +0.79%. The VIX Volatility Index increased by +3.15%. Only the three growth sectors gained while the other eight S&P sectors declined. Communications (XLC +2.32%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.24%) were the top two sectors. Utilities (XLU -3.41%) and Energy (XLE -3.97%) had the worst declines. Factory Orders for May grew more than expected. Orders for the month grew by 1.6% over the previous month compared to the expectation of 0.5%. June PMI data in Europe was also higher than expected. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +1.28%, mostly impacted by the Euro dropping in value. US 30Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasury Yields declined with the 10Y yield dipping below the 2Y yield again. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Brent Oil dipped to $100 a barrel before closing the day at $101.70. Both Silver and Gold as well as the commodities all fell sharply. The put/call ratio fell to 0.766. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Extreme Fear. All of the big six mega-caps gained today. Meta (FB) rose by +5.10%, topping the list of six, but failing to rally above its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all rose above their 21d EMA lines. Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon were the top three in the broader mega-cap list. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobile (XOM) were at the bottom of the list, losing -2.63% and -3.13% in their value as the price of Oil plunged. The Daily Update Growth List was mostly green today. Peloton (PTON) had the biggest gain, rising by +14.02%. There were ten stocks on the list that rose by more than 10%. Only four stocks declined. Niu Technologies (NIU) had the worst decline, falling by -4.92%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data for June will be published in the morning after the market opens. We will also get the JOLTs Job Openings for May. Those together with the Fed Meeting minutes in the afternoon will fuel more speculation on possible Fed moves beyond this month's expected 75-basis point rate hike. After the market closes, we will get the weekly API Crude Oil Stock numbers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq started the day with a decline, but then rose throughout the day to finish just below the 21d EMA. If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, that would mean a +3.46% advance. The trend line from the 6/16 low points to a -0.56% decline for Wednesday. If the index returns to the 5-day trend line, that would mean a -3.04% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a nice start to the short week for the Nasdaq. However, the gains in growth stocks among losses everywhere else are all based on anticipation of a more dovish Fed facing a potential recession. Meeting minutes from the last Fed meeting will be available on Wednesday which will drive more speculation in either direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
7/4/22 MCDMcDonalds Corporation ( NYSE:MCD ) Sector: Consumer Services (Restaurants) Market Capitalization: $187.076B Current Price: $252.96 Breakout price: $252.96 Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $248.35-$238.25 Price Target: $258.00-$260.50 (1st), $270.00-$275.60 (2nd), $302.60-$308.20 (3rd) Estimated Duration to Target: 21-22d (1st), 54-61d (2nd), 150-159d (3rd) Contract of Interest: $MCD 8/19/22 270c, $MCD 9/16/22 270c, $MCD 12/16/22 280c Trade price as of publish date: $3.60/contract, $3.60/contract, $4.75/contract
NYSE:MCDLong
by lord_catnip
Daily Market Update for 7/1Summary: The first day of the second half of the year saw markets rise after dipping in the morning. However defensive stocks still lead with the Utilities sector on top. Treasury yields fell throughout the week, falling again on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, July 1, 2022 Facts: +0.90%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 58% Green Good: High closing range, long lower wick Bad: Lower high, volume lower on gain Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Half green body above long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.25, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.06%), DJI (+1.05%), RUT (+1.16%), VIX (+3.11%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +2.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.84%) at the top. Materials (XLB +0.71%) and Technology (XLK +0.23%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The first day of the second half of the year saw markets rise after dipping in the morning. However defensive stocks still lead with the Utilities sector on top. Treasury yields fell throughout the week, falling again on Friday. The Nasdaq rose by +0.90%. Volume was much lower than the previous three days. The 58% green body sits above a long lower wick and ends with a 98% closing range for the day. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes, gaining by +1.16%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.06% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +1.05%. The VIX Volatility Index was up by +3.11% All eleven S&P sectors rose. Utilities (XLU +2.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.84%) were the top two sectors. Materials (XLB +0.71%) and Technology (XLK +0.23%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was 53.0. It was expected higher at 54.9. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.36%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields fell. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. The gap between High Yield Corporate Bonds and short-term Treasury Bonds continued to widen. Brent Oil rose to $110 a barrel. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Extreme Fear. Four of the big six mega-caps gained. Microsoft (MSFT) rose by +1.07% to close above its 21d EMA. The biggest gain of the day goes to Amazon (AMZN) which advanced by +3.15%. Meta (FB) had the biggest loss, declining by -0.76%. Amazon also topped the broader mega-cap list followed by Coca-Cola (KO) which rose by +2.34%. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) were at the bottom of the list, falling by -5.81% and -4.20%. The best stock in the Daily Update Growth List was Etsy (ETSY) which gained a huge +9.02%. Nvidia was at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Monday for the Fourth of July Holiday. Tuesday will start off the week with Factory Orders data for May. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq traded below the 21d EMA for the last four days. Today's brief rally at open turned into a sell-off and then a steady gain through the rest of the day. If the index follows the one-day trend line, that would end near the trend line from the 6/16 low and result in a +1.16% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a -3.24% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Have a wonderful Fourth of July weekend! Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/30Summary: Markets closed the worst first semester in over 50 years with another decline, falling on concerns over economic growth and corporate debt concerns. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 30, 2022 Facts: -1.33%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 57%, Body: 6% Red Good: Closing range above 50% Bad: Lower high, lower low, lower close, on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Spinning top candle signals indecision Advance/Decline: 0.57, almost two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.88%), DJI (-0.82%), RUT (-0.66%), VIX (+1.95%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.11%) and Industrials (XLI +0.31%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.47%) and Energy (XLE -2.11%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets closed the worst first semester in over 50 years with another decline, falling on concerns over economic growth and corporate debt concerns. The Nasdaq finished lower by -1.33%. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day. The candle has a thin red body in between a long upper wick and an even longer lower wick. The candle is a spinning top that signals indecision in the market. The lower wick came during a sell-off just after the market opened. The index recovered, but not enough to regain all the losses. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.88%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -0.82%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.66%. The VIX Volatility index rose by +1.95%. Four of the eleven S&P sectors gained mostly defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +1.11%) and Industrials (XLI +0.31%) were the best two sectors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.47%) and Energy (XLE -2.11%) were at the bottom of the list. Core PCE Price Index data grew 4.7% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. That was less than the expected 4.8% and 0.4%. Personal Spending (MoM) grew by only 0.2% compared to an expectation of 0.4% and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index also fell short, registering at 56.0 instead of the expected 58.0. So inflation may be tapering, but spending is also cooling. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by -0.34%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasuries all declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bonds continue to diverge from Treasury bond prices, signaling the concern over corporate debt. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices are tracking along with Treasuries. Brent Oil dropped to $108.42 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.996. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 30.66 from 19.86 the previous week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead ISM Manufacturing data will be released in the morning after the market opens, giving a heads up on economic demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq almost 3% after the market opened but regained some of the losses, resulting in an intra-day trend line that slopes upward. If the index returns to the trend line from the 6/16 low, that would require a +3.31% gain for Friday. The one-day trend line points to a +1.82% gain. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.51% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a choppy session as investors close out the first half of the year. Economic data in the morning didn't help paint a solid picture for economic direction and investors sided on the fear side, selling growth and buying defensive stocks. Let's hope for a better second half of the year. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
RTY UpdateFollowed my 15 minute rule and flipped my puts. DCT was a big winner, another $3k day. Good week for me despite missing out on the Friday pump and the Tuesday dump, lol. RSI now touching oversold with positive MFI divergence. Note how it hit my overlay target even though the chart pattern was a bit different. I told everyone earlier this week not to go long until RSI went oversold. We're there now, but I flipped my puts and did not go long. Maybe this afternoon for a small play. 100% cash now on all accounts, closed my earnings play.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
2
RTY New OverlayMarket tanked today on Consumer Confidence numbers released at 10am. Wasn't paying attention to the news since I flipped my calls at 9:45. RTY didn't get the gap fill so you know it has to try again, lol. I overlaid the last gap fill pattern, down tomorrow, more whipsaw this week then another gap fill attempt next week. Bad news won't keep the market from getting the gap fill, heck, they tried to pump it a week after the Fed said possible .75 hike in July. We might see some serious whipsaw for the rest of the week, I wouldn't chase the market. 4th of July week is usually pretty bullish, but then again this market isn't following any rules. Might roll into some calls again when RSI gets oversold, we'll see.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
Daily Market Update for 6/29Summary: GDP for Q1 was revised lower while investors are trying to calculate what possible moves the Fed will make to combat a recession. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 29, 2022 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 69%, Body: 11% Green Good: Closing range above 40% Bad: A/D ratio, lower high and low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: On neck candle where close is near a previous day which was long red (continuation candle) Advance/Decline: 0.42, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.07%), DJI (+0.27%), RUT (-1.12%), VIX (-0.71%) Sector List: Health (XLV +0.87%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.72%) and Energy (XLE -3.48%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview GDP for Q1 was revised lower while investors are trying to calculate what possible moves the Fed will make to combat a recession. The Nasdaq declined by -0.03%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The on-neck candle has a thin green body that opens and closes near yesterday's close, signaling a continuation in a downtrend. The continuation will be confirmed if tomorrow's low breaks today's low. The closing range of 69% comes above a longer lower wick which formed right at the open of the market. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) held onto gains for the day, rising by +0.27%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by only -0.07% while the Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -1.12%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -0.71%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Health (XLV +0.87%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) led the gaining sectors. Materials (XLB -0.72%) and Energy (XLE -3.48%) had the biggest losses for the day. Energy followed Brent Oil prices lower. GDP growth for Q1 was revised to -1.6% compared to the previous calculation of -1.5%. GDP Price Index Data was also revised, rising to 8.3% from the previous measure of 8.1%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.59%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all moved lower. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil prices declined by -1.63% to $111.69 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 1.26. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Extreme Fear range. Four of the big six mega-caps gained today. Meta (FB) had the biggest gain of the six, advancing by +2.03%. Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined by -1.79% and -0.28% respectively. Meta was the top gainer in the broader mega-cap list as well. The biggest loser in the list was Exxon Mobil (XOM), which declined by -3.69%. Digital Turbine (APPS) received some positive reviews from analysts, helping it top the Daily Update Growth List by gaining +5.76%. At the bottom of the list was Lemonade (LMND) which lost -7.28% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Our next look at inflation comes in the morning with the release of the PCE Price Index and Personal Spending data for May. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for Jun will be released after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped after the open but then recovered and traded in a tight range the rest of the day, closing near yesterday's close. If the index returns to the trend line from the 6/16 low, that would mean a +3.28% advance. The five-day trend line points to a +0.88% gain for Thursday. The one-day trend line is flat and points to a +0.2% gain for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market continues to show uncertainty over future economic growth. More companies are beginning to scale back labor and purchases, adding more worries to the list. That's all bad news, but now it also has some analysts predicting a 2023 rate cut from the Fed to fight against recession. Although Treasury bond prices rose, Corporate junk bond prices declined, signaling a move to safe-havens. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/28Summary: Consumer Confidence data shocked investors as it hit a 16-month low and raised worries over slower economic growth. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 28, 2022 Facts: -2.98%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 79% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Drop below 21d EMA, higher volume, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Huge red body below a long upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.26, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.01%), DJI (-1.56%), RUT (-1.86%), VIX (+5.23%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.70%) and Utilities (XLU -0.37%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.00%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer Confidence data shocked investors as it hit a 16-month low and raised worries over slower economic growth. The Nasdaq fell by -2.98% with higher volume than the previous day. The 79% red body is below a long upper wick which formed right at the open before the economic data was available. The market sold off the rest of the day, leaving the Nasdaq with a 1% closing range. There were four declining stocks for every 1 advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the next worst-hit index, falling by -2.01%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -1.86%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed the day -1.56% lower. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +5.23%. Only one of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Energy (XLE) followed oil prices higher and closed up by +2.70%. The worst two sectors for today were Technology (XLK -3.00%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%). CB Consumer Confidence came in at 98.7, lower than the forecast of 110.4. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed much higher demand than expected with inventories falling by -3.799 million barrels compared to the expectation of -0.110 million barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to +0.52%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved opposite of Treasuries, declining for the day. Brent Oil rose to $113.54 a barrel. The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.810. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the edge of Extreme Fear. All big six mega-caps declined. Meta (FB) had the biggest decline, falling by -5.20%. Apple (AAPL) had the smallest decline, but still lost -2.98% of its value today. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the broader mega-cap list, advancing by +2.77% and +1.61%. Nvidia (NVDA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, falling by -5.26%. The entire Daily Update Growth List declined today. Twitter (TWTR) held up the best, losing only -1.02% while much of the declined by more than 5%. Peloton (PTON) had the biggest decline, losing -8.62% and landing at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead An update on GDP numbers for Q1 will be released in the morning. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 9:00 am. Crude Oil Inventories get a weekly update after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq fell back below the 21d EMA. If the index would return to the trend line from the 6/16 low, that would require a +4.53% gain. The gain required to get back to the five-day trend line is only slightly better, requiring a +3.69% gain. If the one-day trend line were to continue into Wednesday, that would mean another -4.14% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Big tech and growth stocks took another hit as Consumer Confidence dips on inflation worries. The US Dollar's continued strength relative to other currencies is also a headwind for large multinationals who need to repatriate a large portion of their revenues, bringing the forecast for top line and bottom line performance down. The lower market outlook for US companies is reflected in the widening gap between Corporate bond yields and Treasury bond yields. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/27 Summary: After one of the best weekly gains of the year, the index kicked this week off with a pullback. Growth stocks led stocks lower, but small caps held onto gains for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 27, 2022 Facts: -0.72%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 20%, Body: 72% Red Good: Stay above 21d EMA, higher high, higher low, volume lower on decline Bad: Closing range Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick red body between small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.78, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.30%), DJI (-0.20%), RUT (+0.34%), VIX (-1.03%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.93%) and Utilities (XLU +0.81%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.95%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.05%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After one of the best weekly gains of the year, the index kicked this week off with a pullback. Growth stocks led stocks lower, but small caps held onto gains for the day. The Nasdaq declined by -0.72% after gaining +7.49% last week. Volume was much lower than Friday's 80% surge in volume. The 73% red body sits below a tiny upper wick and slightly longer lower wick. The index started the day with gains, but then moved lower, ending with a closing range of 18%. There were more declining than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) held onto gains for the day, advancing by +0.34%. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed -0.30% lower and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.20%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -1.03%. Only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Energy (XLE +2.93%) and Utilities (XLU +0.81%) were the top two sectors. Communications (XLC -0.95%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.05%) had the largest declines. Durable Goods Orders in May were higher than expected, rising 0.7% month-over-month compared to the expectation of 0.1%. Pending Home Sales for May were expected to decline by -3.7% but instead rose by 0.7%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by -0.17%. US 30Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil rose by +2.36% and topped $110 a barrel again after new sanctions against Russia were proposed. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.761. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is back in the Fear range after being in Extreme Fear early last week. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index dropped to 19.86 last week. All big six mega-caps declined today. Of the six, only Meta (FB) is below its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOG) is the only of the big six above both the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Exxon Mobile (XOM) was the top mega-cap of the day, gaining by +2.45% as oil prices rose again. Amazon (AMZN) was at the bottom of the broader mega-cap list, declining by -2.78%. Most of the Daily Update Growth List declined today, but there were some gainers. RobinHood (HOOD) had the best gain, advancing by +14.00% after an upgrade by Goldman Sachs. Sea Limited (SE) was at the bottom of the growth list with a -6.74% decline today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead CB Consumer Confidence for June will publish after the market opens. We will also get the Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories for May. Later in the afternoon, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will publish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied in the first few minutes of the market but then faded the rest of the day. The low held well above the 21d EMA. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would meet up with the trend line from the 6/16 low and result in a +1.92% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line leads to a -0.32% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After the massive volume on Friday and the weekly gains of over 7%, it's not a huge concern if the market pulls back a bit. The low of the day is well above the low of last Friday and volume was lower as the index declined. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
$RUT Canary in the Coal MineThe Russell 2k tends to be a solid indicator of broader market movement. While we have realized a correction of ~33%, given the broader macro headwinds... this is not nearly the level expected relative to past major corrections (dot.com & housing market). Given the past major corrections of 47% and 60%, not including the global pandemic shutdown it's apparent theres further markdown market behavior ahead. At the least, expecting a pullback to the 100 EMA is minimum expected while pullback to the 200 EMA with a further wick down from there is not outside of reason. The Fed has only recently begun QT with Central Bank balance sheets letting securities roll off as they mature. With the Fed hyper-focused on inflation with demand side tools at their disposal, the bearish case remains firmly in place right now. In addition to rates, unemployment is part of the Fed's dual mandate. Given the sheer # of available jobs (2 jobs for each unemployed person in the US), the Fed has plenty of room to focus on reigning in inflation to achieve price stability. Will there be bear market rallies? Yes. Will the Fed pivot? Possibly... especially given mid-term elections this fall. Q2 closes next week, earnings will start pouring in... until the Fed changes narrative and there's substantive change, principal preservation should be the priority with a risk-off focus unless one is highly skilled at trading during extreme volatility.
TVC:RUTShort
by R0MM3LL
Daily Market Update for 6/17Summary: Big tech and growth stocks recovered some of the heavy losses from Thursday's selling. The bounce comes at the end of one of the worst weeks in the market since the start of the pandemic. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 17, 2022 Facts: +1.43%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 65%, Body: 41% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, closing range good Bad: A/D ratio, long upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Small body under a longer upper wick, short lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.32, three declining for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.22%), DJI (-0.13%), RUT (+0.96%), VIX (-5.52%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +1.43%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.09%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.93%) and Energy (XLE -5.47%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech and growth stocks recovered some of the heavy losses from Thursday's selling. The bounce comes at the end of one of the worst weeks in the market since the start of the pandemic. The Nasdaq rose by +1.43%. Volume was at its highest since March. The rally reached the intraday high and then subdued, leaving behind a longer upper wick and a 65% closing range over a 41% green body. The gains were not broadly shared. For every advancing stock, there were three declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.96%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by just +0.22% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.13%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -5.52% but remains elevated. Only five of the S&P 500 sectors gained. Communications (XLC +1.43%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.09%) were the top gainers, while Utilities (XLU -0.93%) and Energy (XLE -5.47%) had the biggest declines. Industrial Production for May grew by only 0.2% compared to the expectation of 0.4%. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY) rising by +0.82%. US30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil fell sharply to $111.43 a barrel. The fall in oil prices sent the Energy (XLE) sector lower. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum were all lower for the day. The put/call ratio rose to 1.24, another high reading at the close. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM Money Manager Index fell to 32.18 from 50 last week. All of the big six mega-caps gained Friday. Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.47% for the day, beating the other five. Microsoft (MSFT) had the smallest gain but still rose by +1.09%. The big six topped the broader mega-cap list along with Nvidia (NVDA) which gained by +1.79% today. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) which fell by -4.57% and -5.77%. Growth stocks did well today. The Daily Update Growth List has only three declining stocks. The biggest gain was by Enphase (ENPH) which rose by +8.94%. Just behind it was another new energy stock, Solar Edge (SEDG) which climbed by +8.44%. UP Fintech (TIGR) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -4.03%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday. On Tuesday morning, we will get the Existing Home Sales data for May. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened with a whipsaw action in the morning before climbing to the intraday high in the early afternoon. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, we can expect a +1.35%. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -0.75% decline. A return to the trend line from the 6/2 high would mean a -4.19% decline to start the short week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The gain on high volume is positive for the Nasdaq, but it was confined to a small percentage of stocks in the index. We need those gains to be shared more broadly across the index to build support for further improvements. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321