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RUT2K Short-Term Selloff Likely After Fed Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven’t seen my RUT 2000 prediction for 2024: Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision looms, speculation is rising that we may see a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25. While rate cuts are typically a positive for equities, this aggressive move could lead to a short-term selloff, particularly in smaller-cap stocks, represented by the RUT Russell 2000. The reasoning is tied to the market's well-known "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior. With expectations already priced in for a 25 bps cut, a surprise 50 bps cut could trigger concerns over economic health, prompting investors to de-risk. This would likely lead to a temporary selloff in riskier, smaller-cap stocks, with RUT2K potentially taking a hit in the near term. Given this outlook, I’m considering the $204 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024. These options could provide a solid hedge or a potential profit opportunity if the market reacts negatively to the Fed’s decision in the short term, as I expect smaller-cap stocks to feel the pressure more acutely than large-cap counterparts. Despite this expected volatility, the broader market should recover before the end of the month, once investors fully digest the news. By November 5th, on U.S. election day, we could even see new all-time highs in major indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX). Small caps, however, may take longer to rebound, adding further value to a short-term put position in IWM. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears motivated to support a strong market ahead of the elections, which could benefit Democrats. Former President Donald Trump has indicated he would not reappoint Powell if he returns to office, potentially giving Powell incentive to maintain market stability leading up to November. In summary, while a larger-than-expected rate cut could cause IWM ( Russell 2000 ETF ) to face short-term turbulence, the market will likely stabilize by the end of September. The $204 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, offer a timely opportunity for traders seeking to capitalize on this brief volatility.
TVC:RUTShort
by TopgOptions
IWM | Bullish AMEX:IWM Resistance Levels: There is a significant resistance level at around 224.02. The price needs to close above this level to confirm a breakout. Another resistance level is at approximately 233.64. Support Levels: The immediate support level is the trendline, which has been acting as a resistance until now. This trendline is likely to act as a support if the breakout is confirmed. A secondary support level can be seen at around 227.13. Potential Targets: If the price closes above 224.02, it signifies a breakout from the current price channel. The first target after the breakout would be around 233.64. The second target, based on the price projection, would be approximately 244.46. Indicators: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently around 63.34, which is above the neutral 50 level but not yet in the overbought territory. This suggests there is still room for upward movement. The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend. Volume: The volume seems consistent, supporting the upward price movement. Higher volume on a breakout above 224.02 would confirm the bullish sentiment. Conclusion: If IWM closes green today above 224.02, it indicates a breakout from the current price channel, suggesting a potential further upside. The first target would be around 233.64, followed by 244.46. This position could be highly profitable for call options and futures contracts if the breakout is confirmed and sustained.
AMEX:IWMLong
by shkspr
RUT 2K Fell 17.50% After the Last U.S. Credit DowngradeIf you haven`t bought the RUT 2K regional Double Bottom here: On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing "a steady deterioration in standards of governance." This downgrade occurred following last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to secure a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, which put the nation at risk of its first default. Following a similar credit downgrade in the past, the RUT 2K Russell 2000 experienced a sharp decline of 17.50% within a three-month period. S&P, one of the three major credit rating firms, downgraded U.S. debt on Aug. 5, 2011, after another significant debt ceiling battle. Presently, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022. Even though is not likely, a 17.50% decline will lead to a Price Target of $1630 for RUT 2K. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TVC:RUTShort
by TopgOptions
IWM Russell 2000 RUT affected by the SIVB collapse! Puts to buy!After the last RUT Russell 2000 Price Target was Perfectly reached: Now you need to know that many of the Russell 2K companies will be impacted by the SIVB collapse. Roughly 50% of the US venture capital-funded startups are clients of SVB , potentially putting 65,000 startups at risk of payroll disruptions. Such a situation could have significant consequences for the startup and tech sectors. Silicon Valley Bank did business with FTX, plus many other formerly overvalued tech companies. With $210 billion in assets, $SIBV was the 15th largest bank in the US in terms of deposits. IWM puts considering buying: 2023-4-21 expiration date $169 Strike Price $3.65 Premium Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:IWMShort
by TopgOptions
2
Prefer to fade into the rally on US2000USDUS2000USD0 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1860 (stop at 1895) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 1775 and 1760 Resistance: 1815 / 1830 / 1840 Support: 1800 / 1790 / 1775 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:US2000USDShort
by OANDA
Russell 2000 Futures Next Leg Down -10%Russell 2k $RTY1! broke below the 200 EMA on weekly and failed to regain 1800 as support. As the canary in the coal mine, the Russell 2000 comprises of the 2000 smallest stocks of the Russell 3000 (broad capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S stock market) and provides a solid bellwether for forward facing trends. Next move is a 10% markdown from 1700 to 1550. From there we will likely see a failure to regain 1600. With Q2 earnings coming and early signs of margin compression in the face of rampant inflation ($NKE earnings revealing some weakness), expecting to see 20 EMA crash below the 200 EMA with the 50 EMA following closely behind. On balance volume reflecting a downtrend that really gained momentum in late March / early April with no sign of reversing in the near-term.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by R0MM3LL
$RUT Canary in the Coal MineThe Russell 2k tends to be a solid indicator of broader market movement. While we have realized a correction of ~33%, given the broader macro headwinds... this is not nearly the level expected relative to past major corrections (dot.com & housing market). Given the past major corrections of 47% and 60%, not including the global pandemic shutdown it's apparent theres further markdown market behavior ahead. At the least, expecting a pullback to the 100 EMA is minimum expected while pullback to the 200 EMA with a further wick down from there is not outside of reason. The Fed has only recently begun QT with Central Bank balance sheets letting securities roll off as they mature. With the Fed hyper-focused on inflation with demand side tools at their disposal, the bearish case remains firmly in place right now. In addition to rates, unemployment is part of the Fed's dual mandate. Given the sheer # of available jobs (2 jobs for each unemployed person in the US), the Fed has plenty of room to focus on reigning in inflation to achieve price stability. Will there be bear market rallies? Yes. Will the Fed pivot? Possibly... especially given mid-term elections this fall. Q2 closes next week, earnings will start pouring in... until the Fed changes narrative and there's substantive change, principal preservation should be the priority with a risk-off focus unless one is highly skilled at trading during extreme volatility.
TVC:RUTShort
by R0MM3LL
RUT LongWe have bounced off the 200 EMA on the daily chart . We are at support of the 34 ema on the weekly chart. We have had a long period of consolidation now. Corrections can happen with time or price. This has been a correction of time. The candle lows have been making higher lows and have been forming hammers on the daily chart . The higher lows on the daily chart combined with the support of the EMA’s is what makes me bullish . We also have a symmetrical triangle formation on the daily chart which we broke out of and retested intraday today. The S&P and NASDAQ have had huge run ups and some of the money may be rotating out of those indexes into the Russel. BTC is breaking out and looking to retest all time highs. If it starts making new all time highs I expect there to be an easier environment for the Russel to rise. The stop is below the low of the consolidation. If we break that I am no longer bullish and will have to re-evaluate. I would try and take an entry off a smaller time frame with a much higher stop to increase the RR on the trade. Another way to go about this is waiting for the Russel to start trending higher and confirming the analysis and then buying the first large enough pull back. Waiting for this will allow for confirmation of the trade idea and give a better RR as well.
TVC:RUTLong
by The_Waves