Approaching a pivotal week for the S&PThe S&P500 / ES is sitting right at a critical point which I believe will break this week or next
The weekly chart shows that the S&P is now above most key moving averages, including the 200 moving average (displayed in black), the 20 moving average (displayed in white) and the 50 moving average (displayed in yellow). Also it has broken above the upper resistance trend line (displayed in red), these are all obviously very bullish but a few major headwinds remain that may upset this upwards momentum.
Price last week touched the 100 moving average (displayed in blue) but then rejected back down to end up finishing right at the Fib Extension 0.236 level. Ironically the 100 moving average has been a menacing level that has been difficult for the S&P to break through, 7 weeks ago and 21 weeks ago exactly the same touch and rejection of the 100ma occurred. Further to this we are about to enter one of the most bearish seasonal periods of the year for the S&P, I've included a seasonality indicator in my chart which shows 3 year, 6 year and 9 year tendencies and they all have exactly the same downwards pattern starting in February. The indicator below the Seasonality scan is RVI (relative volatility index), this is good for measuring both the volatility along with direction. Inline with what the market has been doing the past few years the RVI had been generally trending up and created a support line that was largely unbroken from end 2018 - Jan 2022, and since been broken the RVI is now showing a downwards trend and instead of a support line there is a resistance level over head that price is close to approaching.
The last indicator on the chart includes Larry Williams Vix_Fix which had turned red recently (2 bars/weeks), signalling we are in historically low volatility period in the VIX, most traders know that large moves often follow periods of very low and/or contracting volatility. This last indicator also includes a display for the bond yield curve and this is currently shown in the maroon/deep red which confirms a fairly long period inverted curve which is also known as a precursor sign of recession and market sell off.
The recent closed weekly candle was an indecision candle so this week that is coming or perhaps the one that follows should tell a lot about where the market will be heading over the course of the next few months
A bullish bias would mean
Price this coming week will disregard the seasonal bearish tendency and instead break above both the 100ma and the 0.236 Fib and close the week above these levels.
A bearish bias would mean
Price has closed back below the resistance level on the chart (both price resistance & RVI resistance) and price has tracked the normal declining seasonal pattern that plays out around this time of the year.
I see more chart evidence of a coming decline than an incline but in any case we still need to wait for direction confirmation which should look like one of the above scenarios. So it is time to pay very close attention to the charts and In the week that follows the market direction confirmation signal I suspect we will see some large and fast moves of either sideline money coming into the market to cause one last blow off top before some kind of recession sell off later in the year or heavy selling as these key levels get rejected and the seasonal sell of takes hold.
RVI
Relative Strength Index (RSI) | Technical Indicator You Must Kno
✳️What is the RSI Indicator
What is the RSI Indicator? The relative strength index is a market indicator that signals when the asset is over-bought or over-sold. This is a momentum-following indicator that measures how fast the price is moving and changing. The RSI uses different types of averages, but its primary purpose is to show whether a trend is strong or weak within a series of prices.
In general, a strong trend is indicated by values close to 100 while a bearish trend is often indicated by a value near 0.
✳️RSI Indicator Settings
The RSI has the standard setting. When you activate the indicator in any platform the defualt setting are 3 values. They are 6, 14 and 24. These are averages. The 30 and 70 value lines are calculated based on the lower and upper values and the middle lines is the oscillar which is a 14 period average. When the 14 period oscillator is above the 24 period is overbought and when the 14 period is below the 6 period is oversold.
✳️Opening Positions on RSI Signals
The main signal the RSI oscillator generates allows defining overbought and oversold price ranges. Although it is frequently used as a filter in systems where the main indicator is a trend one, it might be possible to try trading using RSI signals only. When indicator’s line goes above the level 70 or below the level 30, it signals that market is overbought/oversold, and it is necessary to wait for the next signal confirming a trend reversal.
✳️RSI Trendlines
Contrary to popular belief, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a leading indicator. This quality can be observed by using trendlines on the RSI chart and trading its break. When the RSI is rising, an upward trendline is drawn by connecting two or more lows and projecting the line into the future. Similarly, when the RSI is falling, a downward trendline is drawn by connecting two or more highs and projecting the line into the future. A break of an RSI trendline precedes an actual price reversal or continuation in the market. For instance, if the asset price breaks above a downward trendline, it is a signal that the price is about to edge upwards, either as a continuation of an uptrend or as a reversal of an existing downtrend in the market.
✳️RSI and Chart Patterns
The Relative Strength Index is one of the best technical indicators to complement raw price action signals delivered by candlestick patterns or line chart patterns. For instance, when a bullish candlestick, such as a pin bar, or a price chart pattern, such as a double bottom, occurs in a downtrend, a buy position can be opened when the RSI displays a reading of below 30 to imply oversold conditions.
✳️RSI Divergence
The Relative Strength Index also delivers divergence signals that could be a viable trading opportunity. A divergence occurs when the asset price and RSI do not move in the same direction. A positive (bullish) divergence occurs when the price is drifting lower, but the RSI is edging higher. This is a signal that the price may be heading towards a bottom and an upward reversal is about to happen. On the other hand, a negative (bearish) divergence occurs when the price is drifting higher, but the RSI is going lower. This is a signal that price may be heading towards a top and a downward reversal is about to happen.
✳️RSI and RVI
Both the RSI and the RVI(Relative Vigor Index) are oscillators, but their different qualities can help traders to pick out high-quality RSI trading opportunities in the market. Whereas the RSI focuses on price extremes (high and low), the computation of RVI seeks to relate closing prices to open prices. This means that the RVI has both positive and negative numbers, with the centreline being 0. The RVI gives information on the strength of price movement, with positive values indicating increasing momentum, whereas negative values denote decreasing momentum. The RSI is the best indicator to complement or qualify the signals delivered by the RVI, especially in trending markets. For instance, if the market is in an uptrend and the RVI delivers a bearish divergence signal (prices go higher whereas RVI goes lower). In this case, a retracement or a trend reversal will be confirmed if the RSI reading is above 70, which implies overbought trading conditions.
✳️Here is the list, though now at all exhausting of the ways to use RSI in your trading. I will add that I use it myself, even though you don’t see it on my charts for aesthetic reasons.
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Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Pivotal week (or 2) ahead for the S&P The S&P500 / ES is sitting right at a critical point which I believe will break this week or next
The weekly chart shows that the S&P is now above most key moving averages, including the 200 moving average (displayed in black), the 20 moving average (displayed in white) and the 50 moving average (displayed in yellow). Also it has broken above the upper resistance trend line (displayed in red), these are all obviously very bullish but a few major headwinds remain that may upset this upwards momentum.
Price last week touched the 100 moving average (displayed in blue) but then rejected back down to end up finishing right at the Fib Extension 0.236 level. Ironically the 100 moving average has been a menacing level that has been difficult for the S&P to break through, 7 weeks ago and 21 weeks ago exactly the same touch and rejection of the 100ma occurred. Further to this we are about to enter one of the most bearish seasonal periods of the year for the S&P, I've included a seasonality indicator in my chart which shows 3 year, 6 year and 9 year tendencies and they all have exactly the same downwards pattern starting in February. The indicator below the Seasonality scan is RVI (relative volatility index), this is good for measuring both the volatility along with direction. Inline with what the market has been doing the past few years the RVI had been generally trending up and created a support line that was largely unbroken from end 2018 - Jan 2022, and since been broken the RVI is now showing a downwards trend and instead of a support line there is a resistance level over head that price is close to approaching.
The last indicator on the chart includes Larry Williams Vix_Fix which had turned red recently (2 bars/weeks), signalling we are in historically low volatility period in the VIX, most traders know that large moves often follow periods of very low and/or contracting volatility. This last indicator also includes a display for the bond yield curve and this is currently shown in the maroon/deep red which confirms a fairly long period inverted curve which is also known as a precursor sign of recession and market sell off.
The recent closed weekly candle was an indecision candle so this week that is coming or perhaps the one that follows should tell a lot about where the market will be heading over the course of the next few months
A bullish bias would mean
Price this coming week will disregard the seasonal bearish tendency and instead break above both the 100ma and the 0.236 Fib and close the week above these levels.
A bearish bias would mean
Price has closed back below the resistance level on the chart (both price resistance & RVI resistance) and price has tracked the normal declining seasonal pattern that plays out around this time of the year.
I see more chart evidence of a coming decline than an incline but in any case we still need to wait for direction confirmation which should look like one of the above scenarios. So it is time to pay very close attention to the charts and In the week that follows the market direction confirmation signal I suspect we will see some large and fast moves of either sideline money coming into the market to cause one last blow off top before some kind of recession sell off later in the year or heavy selling as these key levels get rejected and the seasonal sell of takes hold.
HOW TO USE RSI⁉️
✳️What is the RSI Indicator
What is the RSI Indicator? The relative strength index is a market indicator that signals when the asset is over-bought or over-sold. This is a momentum-following indicator that measures how fast the price is moving and changing. The RSI uses different types of averages, but its primary purpose is to show whether a trend is strong or weak within a series of prices.
In general, a strong trend is indicated by values close to 100 while a bearish trend is often indicated by a value near 0.
✳️RSI Indicator Settings
The RSI has the standard setting. When you activate the indicator in any platform the defualt setting are 3 values. They are 6, 14 and 24. These are averages. The 30 and 70 value lines are calculated based on the lower and upper values and the middle lines is the oscillar which is a 14 period average. When the 14 period oscillator is above the 24 period is overbought and when the 14 period is below the 6 period is oversold.
✳️Opening Positions on RSI Signals
The main signal the RSI oscillator generates allows defining overbought and oversold price ranges. Although it is frequently used as a filter in systems where the main indicator is a trend one, it might be possible to try trading using RSI signals only. When indicator’s line goes above the level 70 or below the level 30, it signals that market is overbought/oversold, and it is necessary to wait for the next signal confirming a trend reversal.
✳️RSI Trendlines
Contrary to popular belief, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a leading indicator. This quality can be observed by using trendlines on the RSI chart and trading its break. When the RSI is rising, an upward trendline is drawn by connecting two or more lows and projecting the line into the future. Similarly, when the RSI is falling, a downward trendline is drawn by connecting two or more highs and projecting the line into the future. A break of an RSI trendline precedes an actual price reversal or continuation in the market. For instance, if the asset price breaks above a downward trendline, it is a signal that the price is about to edge upwards, either as a continuation of an uptrend or as a reversal of an existing downtrend in the market.
✳️RSI and Chart Patterns
The Relative Strength Index is one of the best technical indicators to complement raw price action signals delivered by candlestick patterns or line chart patterns. For instance, when a bullish candlestick, such as a pin bar, or a price chart pattern, such as a double bottom, occurs in a downtrend, a buy position can be opened when the RSI displays a reading of below 30 to imply oversold conditions.
✳️RSI Divergence
The Relative Strength Index also delivers divergence signals that could be a viable trading opportunity. A divergence occurs when the asset price and RSI do not move in the same direction. A positive (bullish) divergence occurs when the price is drifting lower, but the RSI is edging higher. This is a signal that the price may be heading towards a bottom and an upward reversal is about to happen. On the other hand, a negative (bearish) divergence occurs when the price is drifting higher, but the RSI is going lower. This is a signal that price may be heading towards a top and a downward reversal is about to happen.
✳️RSI and RVI
Both the RSI and the RVI(Relative Vigor Index) are oscillators, but their different qualities can help traders to pick out high-quality RSI trading opportunities in the market. Whereas the RSI focuses on price extremes (high and low), the computation of RVI seeks to relate closing prices to open prices. This means that the RVI has both positive and negative numbers, with the centreline being 0. The RVI gives information on the strength of price movement, with positive values indicating increasing momentum, whereas negative values denote decreasing momentum. The RSI is the best indicator to complement or qualify the signals delivered by the RVI, especially in trending markets. For instance, if the market is in an uptrend and the RVI delivers a bearish divergence signal (prices go higher whereas RVI goes lower). In this case, a retracement or a trend reversal will be confirmed if the RSI reading is above 70, which implies overbought trading conditions.
✳️Here is the list, though now at all exhausting of the ways to use RSI in your trading. I will add that I use it myself, even though you don’t see it on my charts for aesthetic reasons.
I hope you liked my article, so please like and comment bros, so that more people could see it!👍
See ya next time♻️
Gold setup and a bonus RVI indicator demonstrationSo in this post I am going to show you an indicator you probably have never heard off and that is the relative vigor index, here in the chart I have shown a few examples of how it can be used for confirmation, It can either be used to spot hidden divergences or used for when price pullsback to a moving average as a tell tale sign the market is ready to continue down or up. The XAU trade here is using the pinbar rejection of the moving average as a strong sell signal as I expect the USD to get stronger over the next couple days, I would expect XAU to try move lower after its long spell of ranging.
The Russian Vix-Maggedon Since its inception the Russian Vix has capture 3 events that have had world wide impacts with a pretty stochastic level of fear in each.....maybe. Currently sitting at its highest reading with what can only be compared to the possible onset of WW3 in Europe with their 1st military engagement in 75 years happening with one of the top 3 Super Powers involved. If the Vix captures fear then this is scary as fck right now to people close and not so close to this situation. Putin is 69 he didn't make this move lightly nor did he not plan for what is happening in response, a rush to conclusion that he's finished is a crowded trade & he has now responded by cutting exports of commodities like Crude Oil & Wheat long with fertilizer components that will press on food cost further than inflationary pressures had already been doing. Food & Energy are his tools to impose sanctions on the west and the last thing the world needs coming out of a pandemic with supply chain issues is an economic war but here we are. If this is the beginning of Putin's end game we are at a serious inflection point here. Below this level risk assets pump again above a Super-Cycle in commodities and a real challenge for the leadership of the free world takes place....
SPX Since inception's day. RVI index's trigger lines !!!101 tech analysis, adjusted for 21 days.
Definition
The Relative Vigor Index (RVI) is based on the likelihood of prices closing higher than the open in market uptrends, and similarly, closing lower than the open in downtrends. The Relative Vigor Index compares the closing price of a security or asset to its trading range.
Takeaways
Rather than oscillate across a trend, the Relative Vigor Index (RVI) oscillates across a center line, going either higher or lower than the line itself. Any divergences that occur between the RVI and the indicator’s price point towards a trend change or reversal of sorts. For example, a trader or investor could use the RVI indicator to aid them in identifying any potential trend changes by examining divergences with the price as it is currently and further utilizing the indicator to determine market entry and exit points with the help of other technical analysis indicators and chart patterns.
There are various types of popular trading signals that can be used with the Relative Vigor Index , the two most commonly used being RVI Divergences and RVI Crossovers.
RVI Divergences signify the divergence between the indicator and its price. This divergence suggests there will be a near-term trend change, specifically regarding the indicator’s trend direction. For instance, if a stock price is rising and the RVI indicator is falling below the central line as well, RVI Divergences will predict that the stock will then reverse in trend direction over the near-term.
RVI Crossovers are leading indicators of future price direction and help determine a crossover to be either bullish or bearish depending on its position above or below the signal line. If a crossover is above the signal line, it signifies a bullish indicator. If a crossover is below the signal, it signifies a bearish indicator.
What to look for
The Relative Vigor Index compares the close to the open. It is a centered oscillator, that operates by moving around the center line rather than price. It is displayed either above or below the price chart and is best used with other technical analysis indicators and chart patterns in order to get the best and most profitable outcomes.
Limitations
The RVI tends to work better in markets that are trending as it seems to generate false signals and data when applied to range-bound markets. One way a trader can aim to improve their RVI results is to set long-term lookback periods. This will reduce the impact that short-term countertrends have on the overall data and takes out short-term changes from data readings.
Summary
The Relative Vigor Index is a technical analysis indicator that analyzes and measures trend strength and direction by comparing a security’s closing price to its trading range where the results are then smoothed and used in further analysis. RVI Divergences and RVI Crossovers are the two most popular trading signals to use under the RVI indicator and are best used in analyzing data from trending markets.
Oil will retest $67Finally we are seeing a sharp pullback following a huge jump in price with a small gap (which signaled exhaustion at this level).
Naturally the trend will retest our previous major resistance now support at $67.
Technicals pint towards the retest. MACD/SIGNAL made a beautiful cross headed towards 0 line. RVI is making a parallel correction through 0 line which signaled this sell off and we can see RSI made a sharp dive into the oversold zone.
Retest $67 for a pivot or continuation though.
Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you.
Major Support foundWe are a major support level that can be easily observed in the day chart. With technicals in play I sentiment a pivot.
MACD/SIGNAL have crossed and are moving sideways towards 0 line while RSI made a sharp pivot out oversold zone (hence the high volume we just saw). RVI diverted towards 0 line which will increase volume and momentum.
Take profit 1 at first key resistance 1.5300 and take profit 2 at 1.53800. Stop loss with a close out below key support of 1.50500.
I suggest entering 3 entries and closing out the first at TP 1 and let the trend ride. Close second if there is a sharp pivot and let the third ride trend.
Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you.
Technical sell set upPresented is a technical sell set up.
MACD/SIGNAL have crossed and headed for zero line while RSI breached 0 line to continue towards oversold zone. RVI is set to make a parallel cross through 0 line for continuation.
Take profit at key support 0.70000 with stop loss above current resistance.
Safe sell entry with a close out below .71500
Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you.
Technical buy analysisAnother explosion for London breakout.
Presented is a 1 hr analysis.
Take profit at 1.5700. I am hoping with MACD/SIGNAL cross enough volume with generate to push RSI further out of oversold zone while RVI crosses through zero line. Stop loss presented on chart.
Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you.
Catch the London breakoutPresented is a buy analysis with the 1 hr chart.
We see continued support along 1.74800. With the MACD/SIGNAL cross at a key trading time (London Session open) near I sentiment this to be a pivot off support.
RSI is rising out of oversold zone and gaining momentum while RVI is curving into a cross and then through zero line for trend/volume confirmation.
Current strength and sentiment is heavily in the sterlings favor.
My TP is zone is our key resistance of 1.76000 with a stop loss below current support.
Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you.
Major Technical Analysis with correlating fundamentalsPresented is a 1 hr technical buy analysis for XAUUSD.
To start we can see our EMA’s initiating a potential reversal. First we can correlate the MACD with our EMA’s. The MACD/SIGNAL lines have crossed and are just below the zero line to sentiment a cross. Next we correlate the RSI which is resting below a key resistance at 55.00. A breach above sentiments buyer control. Lastly we can correlate the RVI. We can see a curve above the 0 line. While above the zero line in an uptrend we can sentiment an immediate divergence for continuation or a double cross for correction and continuation. Se we have 4 main indicators that are all pointing towards buyer control.
Now we can correlate our fundamentals. I correlate DXY and AUDUSD. DXY technicals are set for a drop however the price has been largely fluctuated do to treasury yields. My personal belief is this was manipulated in the sense that DXY will drop from the stimulus relief as this is a form of inflation and is set for the correction. AUDUSD is the best pair to correlate XAUUSD direction. AUDUSD is also set for trend reversal for the bulls on a technical basis. When AUDUSD is up XAUUSD is up and vice versa.
My first Tp is set for our key resistance at 1816.000 which I formulated from previous retests. Stop loss is below our current support of 1691.000 with continuation.
Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you.
RVI has been held down since the start of CovidCheck the chart it's pretty clear this one is almost ready to make a massive return to "NORMAL". Enjoy. GL
ICHIMOKU AND RVI BEGINNERS PLAY BOOKNow ichimoku is relatively simple look for buys above the cloud and look for sells under the cloud. so when we backtest that over our 5/5 winners with rvi we get two less entrys, however as a beginner to avoid them whipsaw movements that isnt always a bad thing. The cloud itself offers dynamic support and resistance based of averages. price breaking through the cloud signals a breakout and a change in the trend usually. if new to trading I recommend learning about ichimoku on youtube, its not the all time great plan but if you have no plan its better than that. to keep discipline and entry requirements.
RVI TUTORIAL OIL EXAMPLE 5/5 WINNERSSo I am going to breakdown an indicator that I have featured alot in my trades, so if we look at the crude oil chart here, we can see that in total we have 5 notable crosses of the rvi indicator, 3 bearish trades and 2 bullish trades for a total of 510 pips, 5 winners out of 5. Now the magic of the indicator is that it is both an entry signal and an exit signal, enter on cross exit on cross to maintain maximum pips. Personally i find relative vigor index very useful when used in conjunction with good trading ideas and good structure analysis
RVI TUTORIAL OIL EXAMPLE 5/5 WINNERSSo I am going to breakdown an indicator that I have featured alot in my trades, so if we look at the crude oil chart here, we can see that in total we have 5 notable crosses of the rvi indicator, 3 bearish trades and 2 bullish trades for a total of 510 pips, 5 winners out of 5. Now the magic of the indicator is that it is both an entry signal and an exit signal, enter on cross exit on cross to maintain maximum pips. Personally i find relative vigor index very useful when used in conjunction with good trading ideas and good structure analysis.
Uber Trading RangeUsing Standard Deviation rules and a Fibonnaci Retracement channel we can track the range bound movement of Uber and help determine the next probably trading range. Testing near the highs of the range showed some resistance as we closed yesterday with a strong bearish candle. showing inability to regain strength could signal a potential reversal of price back towards the range that we can track from june through august.
Bullish Flag - Long OppotunityAUD/USD is displaying a bullish continuation pattern in the form of a bullish flag.
A buy order has been placed just above the resistance line. A break above this resistance line would indicate a continuation of bullish movements following confirmation of a potential continuation of an uptrend.
- The RVI cross over further indicates a potential buying opportunity.
- The MACD is also negative and beginning to show bullish momentum, another signal for a potential buy opportunity
- The pair is trading above the 200 EMA.
I am new to trading, if you have any feedback on my analysis, feel free to comment!
BTC - 24 Price ForecastPrice forecast for the next 24 hours should play between the defined parameters.
Rising wedge on the charts. I believe it will play out as a continuation pattern if timeframes, indicators, charts, and candles continue expressing bullish sentiment over the next 24 hours.
Stochastic RSI bullish with room to move upwards
TRIX has been modified to give strong buy signals
ADX (not shown) has a bullish twist on the DIs
RVI (not shown) approaching less volatile territory across various time frames 1-4 HR.
Kijun acting as support and the Kumo has undergone a bullish flip on earlier time frames (1-4 HR)~