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BTC Cycle 1 & 2 | S2F | EMA 2W 100, 2W 30 OBV - CN10Y/ Credit Waiting for this cycle to unfold I'm starting to see 2 repeats of the same scenario not 3-4 cycles like some believe they have lived through. Cycle 1 & 2 both have this "accumulation" at the macro channel bottom hovering just under the 100 2 Week Moving Average How this plays out is the 30 2 Week Moving Average clamps down onto the 100 right before making a strong reverse. Between Cycles we see a "honey moon period" I'm not sure what else to call it, followed by a new cycle. Watching the S2F this period is looking more like the start of a new cycle with 2 "Bull markets" inside the trend, both identical 100/30 MA. Taking the credit movement CN10Y/DXY/M2 we see literally an exact match where Bitcoin has front run the expansion of credit before other assets. . This is what Bonds are supposed to do hence "bonds being the smart money". I built and posted positions I started all around the 20k mark that extends out to 2025-2026 remember with assets like this time is your friend. Options volatility is pretty much flat > bearish across the board with call options on BTC over 100k by mid 2024 all under the 80% mark. On top of this Bitcoin miners are slightly more bullish on IV % but rounded up the market is in neutral. Confirmation I'm looking for is at least $70,000 by end of year.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FederalXBT
S2F BTC 2WHaving kept a close eye this last 2 years on the Stock to Flow for BTC, I had noticed each time the S2F spiked on the 2W chart, a large move in price action shortly follows. As BTC broke the recent 17.5 bottom and formed a lower bottom at 15.5, there was a significant spike in the S2F data as shown on the chart. Awaiting more data with the S2F Model Value to spike as it has many times previously. This could be seen as some relief and good news for the miners. Happy Trading!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by livmac7
5
GRS (Groestlcoin) | Fundamentals, price model, etc Launched on 22 March 2014 with a focus on technological advancement, Groestlcoin (GRS) is SEGWIT, TAPROOT and Lightning Network ready. Groestlcoin has been in constant active development, providing development updates and enhancements every 3 months for 8 years. It is the first coin that activated SEGWIT (January 2017) and TAPROOT (The last update was released on March 8, 2022) Groestlcoin's final supply is limited to 115 million coins from which around 80 million coins currently in circulation and only 15 million coins left. If you're familiar with the concept of scarcity, you know why it's important. Once something becomes scarce enough, it becomes precious and can be used as money. The market cap of Groestlcoin is around $57 million, while the capitalization of the entire crypto market exceeds $2 trillion. Therefore, it can grow significantly by attracting a small portion of this capital. Technical Analysis Take a look at the chart. Right after Bitcoin's third halving (July 2016), we have a falling wedge pattern on the chart. This consolidation pattern was actually an accumulation zone. As you can see, the 2017 Bull Run started right after the pattern completed. Each complete bitcoin cycle (Duration between two halving events) takes about 4 years. Now, about 4 years after the last bitcoin halving, we are again seeing a consolidation pattern formed on the chart. Now the triangle pattern is completed and the price is about to break out. So, this could be the beginning of a bull run. << However, always remember that past results are no guarantee of future performance >> Price Model Well, maybe a bull run is coming, but where can the targets be? I use a price model to determine the range of price movements. Bitcoin is the leader and in the crypto world everything follows it. I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the GRS price data and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio. I have plotted the model price (black) over time on the chart. To estimate the range of price movements, I used a set of trendlines plotted one or two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from the model. For more information on price models, see my article titled Ripple (XRP) Model Price via the link below the post. Terms What is segwit? Segwit stands for "segregated witness" and is a technique that reduces transaction fees. What is the taproot? Taproot is a modified advanced form of MAST that allows participants to aggregate their signatures and spend from a multi-sig just like a normal transaction together. What is lightning network? The Lightning Network is a second layer added to the blockchain that enables off-chain transactions, i.e. transactions between parties not part of the blockchain network. What is Bitcoin Stock-to-flow? The 'Stock-to-flow' is a number that shows how many years, at the current production rate, are required to achieve the current stock.
GLong
by BobRivera990
Bitcoin's Stock to flow and Log Growth Curve suggest upside 30xBitcoin has been boring the last couple of months and has roughly gone sideways in a rather long range for the last year. The price action has been sideways some of the longer term indicators have been priming and suggest that the next move is to the upside. The stock to flow model comes and goes in popularity with the volatility of bitcoin. When bitcoin is impulsing to the upside people pay a lot of attention to the indicator. Then there are times like we are in right now, when the stock to flow has moved but price action is still roughly sideways. I myself historically have always doubted the stock to flow but it is putting more history behind it and so it seems to be more reliable than I have previously thought. There are several different versions of log growth curves and I find this one useful. It is subdivided into sectors and I have elected to simplify the curve by showing the top and bottom 14.59% as well as the middle portion of the band. For the last two pumps on the stock to flow bitcoin moved roughly sideways around one of the log growth bands for quite a while before pumping to target or beyond. For the last couple of months price has hopped on top of the lower band I defined and so far has done a good job of finding support. The Log MACD histogram is beginning to approach zero and the Log MACD is turning up. The hidden bullish divergence increases the probability that we will see a sustained move to the upside. If the last two trend pumps of the stock to flow are suggestive of this next uptrend we will still have to be patience for this move to slowly pick up steam. Hopefully we will see that strength pick up over the next two-six weeks. If the stock to flow ends up being accurate will will have to get a new log growth curve. First things first will be to see how this weekly pattern resolves. But I have seen plenty of TA around that so I won't replicate it here except to say a move to the top of the weekly keltner is likely, then retesting the horizontal level of the ascending triangle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
9
A clear path for Bitcoin - Extending Cycles.Bitcoin is programmed math - therefore i believe trends are easier to recognize and distinguish (especially when cross referencing on-chain analytics). Here's the LONG story short: I measured the amount of days from the halving to the cycle top, which gave me an ~33% increase. I then added the 33% to the 2017 cycle which equals ~707 days. This puts Bitcoin's market cycle top for 2022 around April 18th. The Red Box indicates the general area in which I believe Bitcoin can top out in (Jan 22 - July 22). $250k is possible but to early to tell - on-chain gives more accurate top indications as the time nears. As for the 350k and 500k are the price predictions from other analysis of those who I will not name. That being said, $100k-$150k are also possible tops. How quick price accelerates nearing the end of the cycle will indicate just where we may top out in the cycle. Currently, we're experienced a mid-cycle top at $64K - this is where i believe the floor will be during the bear market that supersedes the Blow Off Top this cycle. The end! let me know what you think x
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by internetjoey
Plan B - Well Plan A. Linear thinking.Let's start with inflation; I recently wrote an article on Inflation - here's a little extra info to follow on from that. This seems insane!!! And it is!!! Stimulus - hype, FOMO, institutional adoption and so on. What does this mean in terms of the charts? Well some good news and some bad news - first of all, many people have now hears about Stock - to - flow made popular by a guy called plan B. Truth is, this technique has been around for a while and has been used in other instruments such as GOLD for quite some time. S2F A stock-to-flow ratio means the currently available stock circulating in the market relative to the newly flowing stock being added to circulation each year. Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future. So although it's great "in theory" it relies on the parabolic growth - Pi top or whatever other linear logic you want to to continue. (yes insert here intentional). However, whilst stimulus checks are being printed like there is no tomorrow, as price rises for Bitcoin you have to shift focus and think of the market like a stock. When Apple or Microsoft, Google, Tesla where at a market cap of $100m to get to 200m was pretty simple. Each time it doubled, the longer it took to the next phase. Now for Amazon to double from over $1 Trillion market cap to $2 Trillion Dollars; some pretty extraordinary events need to occur. So whilst it is not impossible - you will sometimes need major corrections in the moves up, this is actually healthy for the market. Or like any model, too much of a good thing is actually detrimental to the whole thing. The Halving To understand why Bitcoin can work in the shorter term along this scale it has everything to do with the verifiable finite limit to its quantity it is important to understand the mechanism built into its code, this is known as the Halving. For every 210,000 blocks that are mined, or about every four years as we currently stand, the reward given to miners for processing Bitcoin transactions is reduced in half. This means that Bitcoin is a synthetic form of inflation because a reward of Bitcoin given to a miner adds new Bitcoin into circulation. Clever, hey. The rate of this inflation is cut in half every four years and this will continue until all 21 million Bitcoin is released to the market. Currently, there are 18.5 million Bitcoins in circulation, or about 88.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply. With gold, there is a somewhat steady rate of new gold mined from the earth each year, which keeps its rate of inflation relatively consistent. Now for a S2F model, you can quantify a demand which is what the model is built upon. But with things like alts in the crypto sphere - the problem will become the flow of money. I talked about this in another recent article. With Bitcoin, each halving increases the assets stock-to-flow ratio. A stock-to-flow ratio means the currently available stock circulating in the market relative to the newly flowing stock being added to circulation each year. So if demand drops for any number of reasons; from bankers adding fees - limiting purchase power. governments around the world tightening up or restricting flow, through to taxation events or heightened regulation. (we CANNOT, ignore these factors). Since Bitcoin’s inception, its price has followed extremely close to its growing stock-to-flow ratio. Each halving Bitcoin has experienced a massive bull market that has absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But as Mark Cuban said "everyone is a genius in a bull market". Bitcoin’s price increase can also be attributed to its stock-to-flow ratio and deflation. Should Bitcoin continue on this trajectory as it has in the past, investors are looking at significant upside in both the near and long-term future. Theoretically, this price could rise to at least $100,000 sometime in 2021 based on the stock-to-flow model shown above. However, you have to watch for the pitfall of a large Elliott monthly move back down from 3-4 on a larger scale than the drop from the previous ATH. Some investment firms have made Bitcoin price predictions based on these fundamental analysis and scarcity models. In a leaked CitiFX Technicals analysis Tom Fitzpatrick, the managing director at US Citibank, called for a $318,000 Bitcoin sometime in 2021. Think back of the Amazon stock doubling model - I can't see us going from 61k current level to 318k within the next 50 days. Live on Bloomberg, the Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Global called for a $400,000 Bitcoin based on their “fundamental work.” Like I said, it's not going to be easy. Anyways - enjoy the weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
BTCUSD Wyckoff accumulation Phase C to D (on the 1hr)Wyckoff accumulation after big mid-May dump. Important inflection point for S2F model IMHO. Would like to see $33k hold and then start to push upwards over next couple of days. $41k breakout to the upside mid July would validate short term Wyckoff thesis, help uphold integrity of S2F model, and restore medium-long term bull run towards end of the year. Pink highlighter is approximate trajectory for successful model. Not financial advice!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SBL2022
BTCUSD Wyckoff accumulation Phase C to D (on the 1hr)Wyckoff accumulation after big mid-May dump. Important inflection point for S2F model IMHO. Would like to see $33k hold and then start to push upwards over next couple of days. $41k breakout to the upside mid July would validate short term Wyckoff thesis, uphold integrity of S2F model, and restore medium-long term bull run towards end of the year. Pink highlighter is approximate trajectory for successful model. Not financial advice!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SBL2022
BTCUSD Wyckoff consolidation Phase C to D (on the 1hr)Wyckoff accumulation after big mid-May dump. Important inflection point for S2F model IMHO. Would like to see $33k hold and then start to push upwards over next couple of days. $41k breakout to the upside mid July would validate short term Wyckoff thesis, uphold integrity of S2F model, and restore medium-long term bull run towards end of the year. Pink highlighter is approximate trajectory for successful model. Not financial advice!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SBL2022
Bitcoin Volume Waivering but Continued Uptrend SupportedI've seen a lot of predictions for this cycle. From zero to 1 million. The most commonly believed (and dare I say supported?) forecast is 100k. While I think 100k is feasible for many reasons, particularly because stock 2 flow, fibonnaci and EW would support it; I am erring on the side of a more conservative forecast here around 88k. The reason I'm slightly conservative is the pronounced weakness of BTC to hold 60k so far. If you look at the volume flow it shows a decline at 9 degrees during the same period in which BTC is gaining value at 10 degree uptrend at the macro level and around 4 degree increase on the short term. This type of divergence can indicate the end of a wave 5 EW pattern and precedes the corrective pattern that follows. This doesn't mean the bull market is over, but this quarterly EW pattern may be played out and we will retrace a little before its next push up. That said, we are still in bullish territory overall, with VFI around 30 and have not completed wave 5 of this pattern. In the very short term (14/15 February) we'll likely range a little below/at 60k as Bitcoin consolidates. At the low end I'd expect 56k worst case, but 58k most likely with a high end of 61.x Week Forecast: Its not unreasonable to push to around 66k by weeks end, but buyers need to break resistance between 61 and 62k first. I suspect this will take a few days of consolidation unless we see another unexpected big green candle, in which case we accelerate our forecast. This will be invalidated if we retrace to 53k or lower. Month Forecast: By months end I have us tapping the top of our channel around 71k. This is a decision point for BTC. A bullish divergence could push us out and into more aggressive price exploration and accelerate this cycle, or we will reverse off the top of the channel and begin a corrective pattern before beginning the (potential) final push in this cycle. Mostly likely: we will retrace, probably to mid 50s but I have to do some TA on that. Longer Range Forecast: My personal target this cycle is 88k. I feel comfortable that it fits nicely at the convergence of multiple trends. However, as I said above, other trends will forecast to 100k quite easily, including S2F which is generally pretty consistent in reporting BTC trends. Recommendation: Plan for a few more small retracements on our way to the top of the chart this cycle. If we break North of the channel at any point, run tight stoplosses because its probably an indication of end game for this cycle. If we reach mid 80k also exercise caution as thats the top of my comfort zone. And if VFI declines more aggressive than it is now, be cautious.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by 1BigPapi
Curvy Mayhem, Stock-to-Flow, and a Critique of Pure SimplicityDisclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not a statistician. I am not a trading/investing expert. I am a wildlife biologist. This is just a regurgitation of my research, thoughts, and opinions, along with my attempt at having fun with numbers to create an incredibly speculative model for Bitcoin’s future price action. Hang in there folks, this is a long one. Since I entered the crypto realm in 2017 (I know, such a newbie), I have been obsessed with Bitcoin’s historical logarithmic price chart. Something about the way it smoothly sweeps across the orders of magnitude separating its former obscurity from its financial relevance has drawn me into a fantasy of elegant mathematics, an illusion of design, and a tempting allure for fate. The hindsight is heavy, and it all seems so simple, but it rarely ever is. I often see BTC log charts with curves that march atop the market cycle peaks or support the lengthy slumber of the prices below. I’ve fallen into this habit myself, but these curves are all equally vapid. You can fit infinite curves to any three points after all. (Which of the twelve curves above is the correct one? I personally like light green.) When we create models, we mustn’t be arbitrary for the sake of beauty. What feels right is usually not what ends up being right. Any experienced day-trader will tell you this. We need objectivity. Financial models are hard to create. For centuries, humans have struggled to keep up with the emergent complexity of the markets they formed. The intricacies of our systems tend to outpace us, and some things forever elude our understanding. However, we desire simple answers to complex questions. We see patterns in everything; it’s just an evolutionary heuristic that our prehistoric ancestors utilized for hunting, gathering, and not dying. But in our hyper-complex modern world, this feature of pattern recognition is usually used to a fault. In the following paragraphs, I outline some issues with models created by others and myself. On the surface, these models appear elegant and well-fit, but when we delve into the assumptions behind such models we often find that simple answers are woefully insufficient to predict the future of a complex and turbulent world. BITCOIN STOCK TO FLOW MODEL While the controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model introduced in 2019 by Plan B has proven to be a good fit for Bitcoin’s early price growth thus far, there are several fundamental problems with the model, like failure to account for demand as an influence of price and the lack of a relationship between price and S2F in other scarce stores of value including cryptocurrencies. But perhaps worst of all, this model fails to address the growth-resistant factors that Bitcoin will soon face. Linear regression models on a log-log plot predict infinite growth when extrapolated. Whether limitations arise from resource depletion, social and political behaviour through competition and regulation, or even the laws of physics, nothing can grow indefinitely. So what will ultimately limit Bitcoin? Let’s start with the energy consumption problem. Bitcoin already consumes about 0.5% of the world’s energy supply, more than most individual countries on the planet, and this percentage is increasing rapidly. The issue lies with Bitcoin’s proof-of-work architecture, an algorithm used in the Bitcoin blockchain that incentivizes miners to expend computational energy to cryptographically secure others’ transactions. As speculation drives the price of Bitcoin higher and the available minable supply decreases, miners face greater competition and expend more energy. Eventually, and probably sooner than later, Bitcoin’s price will rise to such a level that the hash rate, and subsequent mining cost, will no longer be able to keep up. Even putting human behaviour aside, Bitcoin’s energy consumption would exceed the entire energy supply on Earth by the 2030’s given the unfettered growth predicted by the S2F model. This may be the gravest threat to Bitcoin’s development into an economic juggernaut, though some solutions like proof-of-stake have been proposed to address this crisis. Two more restrictive factors on Bitcoin’s price are governmental regulation and financial pressure. For the most part, Bitcoin has been allowed to grow naturally without too much interference. However, as it becomes a more significant market force, powerful governmental and financial forces will inevitably attempt to influence, control, or even destroy it. Perhaps the latter is unlikely to happen, if not impossible to do, but market adoption can absolutely be decelerated, leading to a suppression of demand and price. Finally, assuming relatively tame fiat inflation rates, there’s not even enough money on Earth to support the level of growth predicted by the S2F model for even a couple more decades. Eventually, the market will become saturated, demand will diminish, and the price will stabilize. The only way this model works and gives us bitcoins worth $1 trillion in 2050 is if USD inflation goes nuclear and sends the global economy into abject chaos. Even Plan B has admitted as much. By then, your crypto gains would probably be the last thing on your mind. I think it’s clear that any models attempting to predict the future price of Bitcoin need to include a factor that limits growth over time or extrapolates from existing decelerating price patterns. So I decided to create two alternative models based solely on Bitcoin’s price history. For simplicity’s sake, I chose the more speculative route of creating a model based on the peaks of each of Bitcoin’s bubbles. (Note: Data used in statistical analysis was monthly high bitcoin prices collected from barchart.com and yahoo finance.) FOUR-PARAMETER LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL Even a brief glance at the logarithmic chart shows a pattern of price bursts steadily decreasing in intensity, revealing a long-term trend of logistic growth. This is not surprising, considering it gets prohibitively harder to 10x a market cap the second, third, or eighth time around. The best-fitting model for four points following a logistic pattern is, of course, the four-parameter logistic model. This provides a moving target for an end to this bull run. (Note: I made this chart before INDEX:BTCUSD was released, so pre-August 2011 prices were drawn in) Despite giving a tamer near-term outlook, this model still overestimates long-term prices and runs into many of the same problems as S2F, leveling out at a price of 10^230 USD long after our planet is gone and stars stop forming… but at least it levels out. I would also argue that this model is heavily overfitted, using four parameters given only four data points. Furthermore, it places too much emphasis on the starting price of Bitcoin, which may have had little or no influence on its future price. MARKET CYCLE RATE-OF-INCREASE POWER REGRESSION MODEL Instead, I looked to a different measure to predict Bitcoin’s bubble behaviour: price increase over time within each market cycle, extrapolated with a power regression model. I defined market cycles as the time between peaks and calculated the percentage price increase over time (in months) from peak to peak. During the first cycle, when Bitcoin jumped from its first-traded value of $0.09 to about $30, the rate of increase over time was astronomical. The percentage rise of each subsequent bubble has decreased since then while market cycles have lengthened. This gives us three complete market cycles ending in June 2011, November 2013, and December 2017, and three data points describing, as an average monthly percentage, the constant rates of increase in price from one peak to the next. Extrapolated with a power regression (y = 2758x^-4.119; R^2 = 0.994), we are left with a shallower rate of increase between the 2017 peak and the approaching peak. This again provides a linear moving target for an end to the run. On a logarithmic chart, the straight lines between peaks look a little different. This model proves much more flexible than many others. Instead of a specific date or price level, Bitcoin is free to trade however it wishes until the moving target is hit, whereupon the bubble will deflate and we enter a new cycle with a new sloped upper bound. The slope of this bound is determined by the previous market-cycle peak price and the next rate-of-increase value provided by the power regression. These slopes constantly increase, but by less and less each cycle until the price of Bitcoin plateaus. The price level of this ceiling would be determined by the frequency/length of market cycles. Time itself acts as (or at least tracks) the decelerating force. So, it’s a fun model, and quite pretty on a logarithmic chart, but how good is it actually? Well… Problems with this model: It fails to properly define peaks. One can gain an intuitive sense of when each bubble ended, but without an objective definition of this point, the very parameters on which this model relies can be interpreted differently by others. How are we to know if this current run has ended? Was the spike in April 2013 a peak? (Probably not, but you get the point). This one is easy enough to remedy, but I can’t be bothered. We have only three data points, hardly enough to make a reliable trend, let alone one we can extrapolate (Counterpoint: The power regression extrapolation of only the first two points predicts the third with a surprisingly reasonable margin of error for these scales – about 0.2 orders of magnitude, suggesting this model may already have some predictive power. In other words, if you had followed this dubious two-point model in 2017, you’d have sold at about $12,000.). Additionally, extrapolation leaves us with a much greater margin of error than interpolation, especially when we’re working with such a small sample size. At this point, we risk falling into the trap of moving the goalposts by adjusting our model to match new data as it comes in, not unlike what has been done with the S2F model. This ad hoc method constantly maintains the fit of a model but proves that the initial version had somewhat poor long-term predictive power to begin with. This model also places too much emphasis on Bitcoin’s starting price in July 2010. I find it unlikely that this asset’s long-term growth dynamics were heavily influenced by this initial value. It relies on the assumption that the declining rate-of-increase of market-cycle price peaks can be extrapolated into the future. It might be possible to justify this, but I can’t be bothered. This write-up is already nearing 2,000 words. The use of a power regression forces the assumption that long-term growth will never be negative; instead, Bitcoin will approach a plateau at some point. While there are any number of black swan events that could deflate Bitcoin’s price, no simple price extrapolation model can predict and incorporate these possibilities with any reliability. If this model somehow plays out perfectly, I’d be elated. But I wouldn’t have been right. I’d have been lucky. The possibilities for Bitcoin’s behaviour during this cycle and the next are innumerable. All you need is 3 data points and you can make anything happen. Perhaps you remember that colorful, curvy chart a bit further up. However, that doesn’t mean it’s not fun to try. Probing the long-term price action of a novel market with statistical fervor has proven to be a rather entertaining and educational experience. It also shows the difficulty, and perhaps the futility, of finding simple solutions to incredibly complex systems. CONCLUSION I recently watched a youtube video posted by an astrophysicist. He discussed whether we should rely on beauty and simplicity when creating models to accurately describe the intricate and incredibly complex details of our physical universe. Take the theory of gravity and planetary motion, for example. As physicists, theoreticians, and thinkers studied the skies for millennia and searched for simple answers, the theories progressed from that of circular orbits, to more complex ellipses, to a law for gravitational attraction, to requiring special and general relativity – a dramatic increase in complexity and certainly a less beautiful solution, even if more accurate. I have noticed the same trend in my own field. The theories describing ecosystem equilibrium and the interactions between species have grown more complex as ecologists learn more about the biosphere at various resolutions. I believe these same principles can be applied to most aspects of reality. Simplicity has its place, but we often take it for granted. As tempting as simplicity and beauty are, we mustn’t fail to respect and embrace the complexity of our world, however we interact with it.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Kelly_John
2
Bitcoin Stock To Flow S2F Next Top ?Sharing my observations here, it may come true, or not... Putting LOG Fibonacci lines on a LOG scale, some things are remarkable! TOP - The first big Bull run after a Halving starts with a rise from the S2F (463d) St. Dev 4x. This is happened already. - Previous 2 occasions, when the S2F (10d) touched the S2F (463d), the major bull run began to start, it hasn't touched (yet) - The top ALWAYS passed the S2F (10d), it hasn't passed yet. Seems to me, the major Bull run still has to come! The 2.3 fib of the 1st top predicted EXACTLY top 2. The 2.3 fib of the 2nd top predicted fairly correctly top 3. On that base we could say top 4 could be around 208K - 215K (Dreaming a bit but if this is correct, the top after that could be higher than 1.4M!) Bottom The LOG Fib 1.65 predicted the next bottom pretty correct! The LOG Fib 2.65 predicted the second next bottom pretty correct as well! According to this, the next bottom could well be around 52K (min around 30K, max around 65K) Timeline Seeing the Timelines, we can see: - Halving starts at 0 (or 5 for the next) - Bullish between 0-2 - Top between 1-2 - Bearish between 2-3 - Bottom between 3-5 We are now just past 1! We'll see how this goes! Cheers! (This is not financial advice, please DYOR)
BNC:BLXLong
by fikira
14