SACYR: Shaping H&S after inverse one outcome got kicked outWe are always listening to "Sacyr wins this concession in Chile", "Sacyr wins this construction in ____", "Sacyr enters bid to build a hospital in Lisbon"... But what if there are overcosts or a new confinement? Nowadays, the company is unprofitable. In 2019, it lost €297 million and historically Sacyr has always been correlated with the price fluctuations of REPSOL (who's been behavioring really bad lately). EBITDA was up 25% in 2019, up to 679 million. Debt was increased by 6.6% up to €4,315 million. Sales decreased 33% in all areas except Industrial one. Sacyr has a stake of 8.2% in Repsol whose contribution to the firm's profits in 2019 is -354 million.
The first semester, Sacyr's profits were 12.9% lower (to 70 million) YoY. It has a provision of 30 million and REPSOL's contribution to profit was -18 million. Ebitda is up 10.4% to 348 million. Sales +3.5% (2,079 million). Sacyr increases debt by 213 million from December 2019 due to all those investments on concessions we are hearing nowadays. So in case the company starts growing in 2020, it will do so with a large burden of debt.
It is important to look at the Construction Index from Spain to have a preview of how companies are dealing with this pandemic. ACS shares, for example, are being severely punished.
BME:ACS
From technical perspective, BME:SCYR is shaping a closing triangle that might end on September 14. Even though all these good news about winning contracts surround the company, investors are smart enough to know that the high stake on Repsol will drag it down in case the pandemic worsens or oil prices start to fall. The inverse Head and Shoulders it shaped some weeks ago (starting June 14) ended on August 4. It lasted therefore one month and ten days. Now, the symbol has started a H&S figure on July 10 but its outcome is still not noticeable.
I will post a study on construction companies after publishing this post. My final conclusion on SACYR is short as long as oil markets tumble and covid19 cases increase. Also, the company might be involved in legal procedures that may affect its continuation of an uptrend. First support at 1.80, second at 1.50.
