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Safehaven

The start of a long trainNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Today we will be looking at economic correlations and why bonds are moving the way they are. As of right now the 10y and 7y are a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a percent away from inverting and a inversion percent in the 30y to 20y is as much currently. 30y to 20y is already inverted. There are MANY reasons why and this is not so simple. Bonds are selling off across the board with only the 1mo remaining the same. Tho today seems to be about flat, the trend continues. Housing, rate hikes, savings, inflation, liquidity, fomo speculation and foriagn investments are all tied to this and as a result the analysis will continue with other charts produced today
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
Gold Maintains the RangeGold has been holding the range between 1815 and 1826 nicely. We are seeing good support and resistance from above and below, respectively, confirmed by green and red triangles on the KRI at these levels. The price action is starting to 'round off' at highs, suggesting we be losing confidence in higher levels, and might be gearing up for a retracement. If support at 1815 does not hold, there is a vacuum zone down to 1715. If we can muster the strength to break 1826, then 1836 is the next target. The Kovach OBV has been holding steady at highs, suggesting the current range may hold for now, until we see more momentum come through either way.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
The Feds Gamble: AUDJPYThis is a weekly trade update on The Feds gamble portfolio, which is long USD, Long JPY this is the action that we have seen. Number of various head fakes have taken place as it flipped from bearish to bullish and back bearish. Ultimately AUDJPY printed out a early support to the week at $82.5 after falling from 83.25 which was the opening top to the week. 11th-13th AUDJPY saw a weakening jpy leading to a range developed 10th-11th ending with a range break out giving us the eventual to in the market 13th-14th AUDJPY showed a strong sell off after making new highs and ended in a new lower low
Short
by RobinhoodFX
Gold Tests Higher LevelsGold has made another run for hgihs, but is facing resistance at 1826. Several red triangles on the KRI are suggesting resistance here. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has leveled off, suggesting momentum may have petered out for now and we are likely to see further resistance from 1826. But if not, 1836 is the next target. We should see support from 1815, but if not, then there is a vacuum zone down to 1795. It is likely that gold will range between 1815 and 1826.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Bonds Ranging Between Our LevelsBonds have edged up, but as predicted, are facing resistance at 128'24. We saw a red triangle on the KRI at this level to confirm resistance. Currently, we are seeking support at 128'10, which we also anticipated. Two green triangles on the KRI are suggesting support here. As discussed yesterday, bonds are establishing value between 128'10 and 128'24. The Kovach OBV has edged up, but has leveled off. If ZN is able to break through 128'24, then there is a vacuum zone to 129'11. Otherwise, we should see support at 128'00.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Bonds dont like the clown showThe selling in bonds continues as inflation continues on. Wings in my area are almost $10/lb, highest i have seen this in my life (only 28 tho). Most of the time I check to see if there is any short term bond buying, this time however, short term bonds are selling too. It would seem that investors are spooked, Investors really have no where to run at this point. Crypto winter is here, Stocks did great today but those gains are no longer viable with a hawkish fed, homes are skyrocketing but people are already warning of a top, businesses have a labor shortage and with inflation it's obvious investors do not see US debt as a safe haven anymore. At least for now. I will keep you all updated. Hope you all have your popcorn at the ready.
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
2
EURJPY At Critical Sell Level! Await Break Of 130.000 Support Have a look at the weekly chart for EURJPY. Here we can clearly see that the price is in a bullish flag and pole formation. At the moment a consolidation should be expected as the price lies at the critical sell zone. Now looking at the smaller picture on the main chart, to go short a concrete confirmation is required. The ideal point of breakage should be considered the daily candle breach of 130.000 psychological support. Once the daily candle has closed below 130.000, it is highly probable that the price would start to accelerate downwards. Trade sample (The daily candle must close below 130.000 first) ENTRY POINT: AT AROUND 130.000 STOP LOSS: 131.600 TAKE PROFIT: 127.600 RISK TO REWARD: IDEALLY 1:1 SO ADJUST THE ENTRY ACCORDINGLY Trade safely and with confirmation. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
How High Could USDJPY Go in 2022 ? A LONG QUALITY TRADE !Yes, the LONG move is highly primed in! USDJPY is going LONG in 2022 Q1 and possibly Q2 as well depending on the FED hiking cycle and USD's economic data. Since the long-term weekly resistance was broken last month, USDJPY is highly likely to head higher. But now the big question on the traders mind is: how high can it go ? Most financial banks are betting that it could HIT 120.00 or beyond and some are betting that it could go and run out of steam at 118.000 area. Here looking at the main chart, we could see the next higher high which could be a potential obstacle would be present at 118.000 level. Therefore based on pure price action, a TAKE PROFIT at 118.000 would be ideal. After that if the pair is ready to head higher, it would need to break this level first. TRADE SAMPLE INSTRUCTION: (SEE THE MAIN CHART TOO) ENTRY AT: 115.050 OR BELOW TAKE PROFIT: 118.000 STOP LOSS: 112.200 RISK TO REWARD: 1:1 Trade safely compatriots.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Have Bonds Bottomed??Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we expect value to continue to form at current levels. A relief rally is not out of the question, especially after such a selloff. If so, we could make a run for the 129 handle again. There is a large vacuum zone above to 129'11, which should be considered a max upper bound at this point. The floor seems to be 128'10 for now. The Kovach OBV is still quite bearish, so there is little hope for a genuine bull rally any time soon.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Gold Dips, Hits our Target at $1784Gold has plummeted past our support level at 1795. We saw a brief attempt yesterday morning to make a pivot off of this level into the value area between 1795 and 1815, but this was swiftly sold back, and 1795 provided little support. However, the levels in the 1780's that we identified yesterday held well and we found support just above 1784. Currently, we are ranging between 1784 and 1795, with the current price at the time of this writing around 1790 or so. If we muster the strength to break through 1795, then we will have returned to the vacuum zone between 1795 and 1815. If we selloff further, 1777 is the level to watch, which seems to be a hard lower bound for now. But 1770 is the next level after that so be prepared just in case we dip further.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Yields Soar, Treasuries Smash Lows!!Bonds have tumbled off soaring yields. Rising inflation seems to be one of the key drivers, along with paradoxically increasing risk on sentiment in stocks, as the indexes are testing new highs again. ZN smashed through support in 130 handle. We saw absolutely no support from 130'00, the final barrier to the 129 handle, and even less from 129'26, the first level in the 129's. We finally bottomed out (for now) at 129'11, one of the levels we have identified months back using inverse Fibonacci Extension levels. The Kovach OBV has fallen off a cliff with the selloff, but appears to be leveling off as the price stabilizes here. Anticipate some ranging at current levels are digested. The next level down is 128'24. If we catch a relief rally, then 129'26 should provide resistance.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Gold Spans the Range Back to $1820Gold has spiked back up through the range back past our level at 1815. We are currently just above this level, facing resistance at the week's high at 1820. We are likely to see resistance here, and if so, we will add this as another technical level to the chart. But we definitely appear to be running out of momentum, though we are not seeing any red triangles on the KRI yet to confirm resistance. The next level above is 1826, which is sure to provide resistance if we can muster the strength to test it. If we are right, and gold retraces, we could span the entire value area back to 1795, or perhaps test the levels below that again in the 1780's. We still feel that 1777 if a floor for now.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Gold Falls to Support, Quickly Reestablishes ValueGold fell from the value area between 1795 and 1815, only to find support at 1789, one of the exact levels we've been calling out. Diligent readers should have been prepared for this dip. We have since pivoted from 1789, and regained value above 1800, testing support again at 1795. The Kovach OBV has edged up, after registering the selloff, suggesting that rout is over for now, and the value area is likely to hold. Watch for support again at 1795, and resistance at 1815. Again, note that if we do attempt another selloff, those levels in the 1780's should hold, with the floor being 1777 for now.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
1
As Predicted, Gold Sells Off!!Gold faced an intense selloff, as we have been predicting all this week. We made a run past 1815, which gave the illusion that we might be gearing up for another bull run, but we topped out just below 1826, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed strong resistance. Subsequently, we fell back through support at 1815, and through the vacuum zone below it to support at 1795 *exactly*, which was the level we have been calling out for the past two days. We do appear to be finding support here, and if so, we can expect the price action to be confined to the value area bounded by 1795 and 1815. If we fall further, there is strong support in the 1780's with 1777 as a floor price for now.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Omicron Could Drive EURJPY To 125.000!Ascending channel on weekly TF broke, bullish flag and pole formation is currently developing at the moment. In a long run, this pair has been in an uptrend, however since the channel and psychological barrier of 130.000 broke, the price is likely to aim the next support that lies at 125.400! TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bullish pole and flag formation currently in play on W charts. The 130.000 psychological barrier broke with M candle closing below it. This signals the price is ready to head lower towards 125.000 support area. This SHORT move signals further consolidation in EURJPY (FLAG CONTINUATION) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS *Omicron the main driver for this pair at the moment *Anticipated rise in the cases globally after the festive season would make JPY safehaven demand rebound, thus sending EURJPY lower HOW TO TRADE? Trade could be executed at this moment with the following suggested details as the risk to reward ratio is favorable at the current price ENTRY: 130.000 & ABOVE STOP LOSS: AT SWING HIGH 133.750 TAKE PROFIT: NEAR SUPPORT 125.4000 RR: > 1:1 Cheers & Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
2
Gold Tests Higher LevelsGold got a lift breaking past our level at 1815, just barely. We are currently testing 1818 or so at the time of this writing and appear to be encountering some resistance. The Kovach OBV and Kovach Chande indicators are starting to suggest that we are overbought at the moment, which suggests that gold may dip or at least range a bit. If not, the next target is 1826. If we are unable to sustain the current levels, as the technicals suggest, then we should retrace back to 1795 with ease. Recall that we have further support in the 1780's with a floor at 1777.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
3
Could Omicron Cause USDJPY To Stall At 115.000 ?Its a thin trading week with no concrete markets drivers scheduled. With low liquidity, this pair has been inching closer to the next psychological resistance of 115.000. This level has been rejected on 3 occasions on the recent trend and the current wave would likely represent the 4th test of this concrete resistance! Based on the technical picture, the USDJPY is in the long term uptrend, however the 115.000 psychological barrier needs to be broken convincingly. To do so, the Monthly candle needs to pierce and close above 115.000 mark. This would give a precise indication that indeed this level has been cleared and the price can aim higher. Fundamentally, this pair is mainly driven by the Covid 19 pandemic in the last couple of years. With the discovery of the new variant Omicron, which is now the dominant strain around the globe we can expect the cases to rise rapidly in the coming weeks, as people gather and celebrate during this holiday season. With various statistics confirming that the omicron variant is far less fatal than its predecessor the "delta variant", there is still fear that the high infection rate and cases could again overwhelm the medical industry especially the hospitals! PREDICTION FOR THE COMING WEEKS ? As people gather and celebrate the holiday season, the variant would likely cause the infection rate to spike, which would likely be evident in the coming weeks as the cases might soar. Even with the vaccinations ongoing, the immunity that it provides is only temporary. So how would the market react? as usual the demand for safehaven would return thereby making JPY appreciate. But the demand for JPY or safehaven would not be that high, as this variant is less fatal due to many factors. Therefore USDJPY might test and reject the 115.000 level and fall towards the ascending channel trendline or support of 113.000 area. But 112.000 will likely not be broken and this DIP would be seen as the buying opportunity that the traders have been waiting for. Cheers, I hope you found this insight helpful. Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
Gold Establishes New Value AreaGold has rallied from the high 1700's, into the value area between 1795 and 1815. We are seeing a great deal of resistance at 1815, as identified by a series of red triangles on the KRI. If we are unable to test 1815 again, we are almost sure to test 1795 again. The Kovach OBV has flattened out, suggesting momentum in the rally has petered out for now. 1795 would be a good idea for a range trade, but keep in mind that a few weeks ago we saw value in the 1780's, with 1777 as a floor for now.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
USDJPY UNLIKELY TO BREAK 112.000 BARRIER! Here is WHYA very interesting pair to trade during this ongoing pandemic, certainly USDJPY has caught the eye of many traders as both currencies acting as SAFEHAVEN. However in RISKOFF mood, the advantage certainly lies with the JPY, as the SAFEHAVEN status makes it appreciate against various counterparts such as the AUD, NZD, CAD, EURO, GBP. In the case of USD and CHF, the JPY has a bit of tussle appreciating since all are considered SAFEHAVEN assets. Looking at the bigger picture, in the RISK OFF markets the JPY certainly appreciates against the USD. For example since the pandemic began, we saw the JPY strengthen against the USD and fall to levels low as much as 105.000 In the RISKON markets, there is no doubt that the JPY weakens against various counterparts, but mostly against the USD. For example, when the global population started being vaccinated slowly, the signs of recovery in the USDJPY was quite evident, as the pair inched closer to 116.000 from lows of 105.000. A QUITE BIG RISE compared to other currencies paired with JPY. CURRENT MARKET MOOD: SEEMS TO BE RISKOFF AND RISKON. BUT PARTICULARY SKEWED TOWARDS THE RISKOFF AS THE OMICRON FEARS GATHER PACE Its festive season and the spread of the new variant would likely make the cases skyrocket, however as many are already vaccinated and boosters shots being administered, we should NOT expect much panic such as the one that was caused by the DELTA variant!. There are other several reasons behind to support this statement HERD IMMUNITY: since the pandemic began and up until now, the whole population has likely already achieved natural immunity and/or acquired immunity. Even as the new variant arise, our immune system are already equipped to fight off the virus DEATHS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW: comparing the fatality that delta variant was causing, so far if you observe the number of new omicron cases, the fatality is very very low. This is because of the HERD immunity. COVID 19 IS HERE TO STAY: Just like the COMMON COLD, COVID19 is here to stay with us. as it mutates and our immune system has also been equipped to fight off new strains. the COMMON COLD and COVID 19 are both classed from the same family of CORONAVIRUS. therefore the world is learning to deal and learn how to live with COVID 19. THE WORLD WANTS TO RETURN TO NORMAL: People are tired of lockdowns and as per the above point, are willing to live with the virus. be it using vaccines more often or just their natural immunity function. As such major financial banks are already predicting the economic recovery in 2022 and beyond GETTING TO THE POINT Current market mood is mixed, that is why it could be seen that USDJPY is ranging after falling sharply on the news that south Africa has detected a new variant. There is no doubt that this festive season would make the new cases sky rocket, however as looking at all the above points, mainly the vaccines and immunity, we can expect the fatality rate to be much much lower compared to the havoc that DELTA variant caused. Looking at the main chart, the festive season would likely cause the USDJPY price to HIT 112.000 or 113.000 area which is the lower end of the channel as the markets panic and enter the RISKOFF MOOD. But as usual the HERD IMMUNITY AND VACCINES BOOSTER ROLEOUT, would make this less threatening and markets might finally realize this and enter in RISKON mood. This would make the USDJPY price rise and possibly HIT 118.000 in 2022. However the covid 19 is highly unlikely to cause markets to enter in a long term RISKOFF mood, therefore we should expect this channel to hold and guide this pair steadily towards the 118.000 mark in 2022. In short this pandemic has caused the markets to be so cautious, however looking at all this every large DIP in USDJPY should be seen a buying opportunity. CHEERS AND THANKS. HOPE YOU FOUND THIS INSIGHT HELPFUL
Short
by FX618Analysis