Get started

Safehaven

Gold Smashes Through Lower LevelsGold has smashed through lower levels, currently breaking through our levels in the 1780's. We are just above 1777, the floor we anticipated yesterday. We sliced through the entire value area between 1815 and 1795 with ease. The Kovach OBV has taken a turn to the bearish side with the selloff. We anticipate 1777 to hold, as it has provided support in the past, but if not, then 1770 should hold, then there is a vacuum zone to 1759. We should see resistance from 1795, should gold bounce from lower levels.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
CHF - Longer term: Where to next? And why does it matter?$CHF Longer Term Time Frame Where to next? And why does it matter? As we head into month end, it's when I am looking at the monthly time frames to indicate to me the key important areas we are in and how will the candle close. CHF and many of the other G10 spot currencies are at very interesting areas longer term, if these key areas were to end further in the momentum it's going we will be have further clear clarification of price action. Technical View: Pattern - Within a wedge formation a break to either direction confirmation is needed. However, if we was to go above 50EMA and a close above 0.94800 areas then bulls will gain further control towards upside towards 0.99850 -1.10000 areas. If we don't and we always have the beautiful support of 21EMA anywhere below that we go towards support range of 0.91550 areas. Fundamentals: CHF known as safe havens... As precious metals decline further ( A chart was shared on the private groups I am part of) and with Feds Hawkish we've had a lot of bids coming in for DXY, it's part of the market rotation and this may accelerated further. March meeting FOMC is expected to do it's first rate hike. However, don't forget we want get at a great bargain and stick to your trade plan. (Do you realise the pattern yet?) Key Tip: Longer TF = Shorter TF movement! Trade Safe TJ Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice
by Trade_Journal
The start of a long trainNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Today we will be looking at economic correlations and why bonds are moving the way they are. As of right now the 10y and 7y are a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a percent away from inverting and a inversion percent in the 30y to 20y is as much currently. 30y to 20y is already inverted. There are MANY reasons why and this is not so simple. Bonds are selling off across the board with only the 1mo remaining the same. Tho today seems to be about flat, the trend continues. Housing, rate hikes, savings, inflation, liquidity, fomo speculation and foriagn investments are all tied to this and as a result the analysis will continue with other charts produced today
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
Gold Maintains the RangeGold has been holding the range between 1815 and 1826 nicely. We are seeing good support and resistance from above and below, respectively, confirmed by green and red triangles on the KRI at these levels. The price action is starting to 'round off' at highs, suggesting we be losing confidence in higher levels, and might be gearing up for a retracement. If support at 1815 does not hold, there is a vacuum zone down to 1715. If we can muster the strength to break 1826, then 1836 is the next target. The Kovach OBV has been holding steady at highs, suggesting the current range may hold for now, until we see more momentum come through either way.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
The Feds Gamble: AUDJPYThis is a weekly trade update on The Feds gamble portfolio, which is long USD, Long JPY this is the action that we have seen. Number of various head fakes have taken place as it flipped from bearish to bullish and back bearish. Ultimately AUDJPY printed out a early support to the week at $82.5 after falling from 83.25 which was the opening top to the week. 11th-13th AUDJPY saw a weakening jpy leading to a range developed 10th-11th ending with a range break out giving us the eventual to in the market 13th-14th AUDJPY showed a strong sell off after making new highs and ended in a new lower low
Short
by RobinhoodFX
Gold Tests Higher LevelsGold has made another run for hgihs, but is facing resistance at 1826. Several red triangles on the KRI are suggesting resistance here. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has leveled off, suggesting momentum may have petered out for now and we are likely to see further resistance from 1826. But if not, 1836 is the next target. We should see support from 1815, but if not, then there is a vacuum zone down to 1795. It is likely that gold will range between 1815 and 1826.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Bonds Ranging Between Our LevelsBonds have edged up, but as predicted, are facing resistance at 128'24. We saw a red triangle on the KRI at this level to confirm resistance. Currently, we are seeking support at 128'10, which we also anticipated. Two green triangles on the KRI are suggesting support here. As discussed yesterday, bonds are establishing value between 128'10 and 128'24. The Kovach OBV has edged up, but has leveled off. If ZN is able to break through 128'24, then there is a vacuum zone to 129'11. Otherwise, we should see support at 128'00.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Bonds dont like the clown showThe selling in bonds continues as inflation continues on. Wings in my area are almost $10/lb, highest i have seen this in my life (only 28 tho). Most of the time I check to see if there is any short term bond buying, this time however, short term bonds are selling too. It would seem that investors are spooked, Investors really have no where to run at this point. Crypto winter is here, Stocks did great today but those gains are no longer viable with a hawkish fed, homes are skyrocketing but people are already warning of a top, businesses have a labor shortage and with inflation it's obvious investors do not see US debt as a safe haven anymore. At least for now. I will keep you all updated. Hope you all have your popcorn at the ready.
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
2
EURJPY At Critical Sell Level! Await Break Of 130.000 Support Have a look at the weekly chart for EURJPY. Here we can clearly see that the price is in a bullish flag and pole formation. At the moment a consolidation should be expected as the price lies at the critical sell zone. Now looking at the smaller picture on the main chart, to go short a concrete confirmation is required. The ideal point of breakage should be considered the daily candle breach of 130.000 psychological support. Once the daily candle has closed below 130.000, it is highly probable that the price would start to accelerate downwards. Trade sample (The daily candle must close below 130.000 first) ENTRY POINT: AT AROUND 130.000 STOP LOSS: 131.600 TAKE PROFIT: 127.600 RISK TO REWARD: IDEALLY 1:1 SO ADJUST THE ENTRY ACCORDINGLY Trade safely and with confirmation. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
How High Could USDJPY Go in 2022 ? A LONG QUALITY TRADE !Yes, the LONG move is highly primed in! USDJPY is going LONG in 2022 Q1 and possibly Q2 as well depending on the FED hiking cycle and USD's economic data. Since the long-term weekly resistance was broken last month, USDJPY is highly likely to head higher. But now the big question on the traders mind is: how high can it go ? Most financial banks are betting that it could HIT 120.00 or beyond and some are betting that it could go and run out of steam at 118.000 area. Here looking at the main chart, we could see the next higher high which could be a potential obstacle would be present at 118.000 level. Therefore based on pure price action, a TAKE PROFIT at 118.000 would be ideal. After that if the pair is ready to head higher, it would need to break this level first. TRADE SAMPLE INSTRUCTION: (SEE THE MAIN CHART TOO) ENTRY AT: 115.050 OR BELOW TAKE PROFIT: 118.000 STOP LOSS: 112.200 RISK TO REWARD: 1:1 Trade safely compatriots.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Have Bonds Bottomed??Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we expect value to continue to form at current levels. A relief rally is not out of the question, especially after such a selloff. If so, we could make a run for the 129 handle again. There is a large vacuum zone above to 129'11, which should be considered a max upper bound at this point. The floor seems to be 128'10 for now. The Kovach OBV is still quite bearish, so there is little hope for a genuine bull rally any time soon.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Gold Dips, Hits our Target at $1784Gold has plummeted past our support level at 1795. We saw a brief attempt yesterday morning to make a pivot off of this level into the value area between 1795 and 1815, but this was swiftly sold back, and 1795 provided little support. However, the levels in the 1780's that we identified yesterday held well and we found support just above 1784. Currently, we are ranging between 1784 and 1795, with the current price at the time of this writing around 1790 or so. If we muster the strength to break through 1795, then we will have returned to the vacuum zone between 1795 and 1815. If we selloff further, 1777 is the level to watch, which seems to be a hard lower bound for now. But 1770 is the next level after that so be prepared just in case we dip further.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Yields Soar, Treasuries Smash Lows!!Bonds have tumbled off soaring yields. Rising inflation seems to be one of the key drivers, along with paradoxically increasing risk on sentiment in stocks, as the indexes are testing new highs again. ZN smashed through support in 130 handle. We saw absolutely no support from 130'00, the final barrier to the 129 handle, and even less from 129'26, the first level in the 129's. We finally bottomed out (for now) at 129'11, one of the levels we have identified months back using inverse Fibonacci Extension levels. The Kovach OBV has fallen off a cliff with the selloff, but appears to be leveling off as the price stabilizes here. Anticipate some ranging at current levels are digested. The next level down is 128'24. If we catch a relief rally, then 129'26 should provide resistance.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Gold Spans the Range Back to $1820Gold has spiked back up through the range back past our level at 1815. We are currently just above this level, facing resistance at the week's high at 1820. We are likely to see resistance here, and if so, we will add this as another technical level to the chart. But we definitely appear to be running out of momentum, though we are not seeing any red triangles on the KRI yet to confirm resistance. The next level above is 1826, which is sure to provide resistance if we can muster the strength to test it. If we are right, and gold retraces, we could span the entire value area back to 1795, or perhaps test the levels below that again in the 1780's. We still feel that 1777 if a floor for now.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Gold Falls to Support, Quickly Reestablishes ValueGold fell from the value area between 1795 and 1815, only to find support at 1789, one of the exact levels we've been calling out. Diligent readers should have been prepared for this dip. We have since pivoted from 1789, and regained value above 1800, testing support again at 1795. The Kovach OBV has edged up, after registering the selloff, suggesting that rout is over for now, and the value area is likely to hold. Watch for support again at 1795, and resistance at 1815. Again, note that if we do attempt another selloff, those levels in the 1780's should hold, with the floor being 1777 for now.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
1
As Predicted, Gold Sells Off!!Gold faced an intense selloff, as we have been predicting all this week. We made a run past 1815, which gave the illusion that we might be gearing up for another bull run, but we topped out just below 1826, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed strong resistance. Subsequently, we fell back through support at 1815, and through the vacuum zone below it to support at 1795 *exactly*, which was the level we have been calling out for the past two days. We do appear to be finding support here, and if so, we can expect the price action to be confined to the value area bounded by 1795 and 1815. If we fall further, there is strong support in the 1780's with 1777 as a floor price for now.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Omicron Could Drive EURJPY To 125.000!Ascending channel on weekly TF broke, bullish flag and pole formation is currently developing at the moment. In a long run, this pair has been in an uptrend, however since the channel and psychological barrier of 130.000 broke, the price is likely to aim the next support that lies at 125.400! TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bullish pole and flag formation currently in play on W charts. The 130.000 psychological barrier broke with M candle closing below it. This signals the price is ready to head lower towards 125.000 support area. This SHORT move signals further consolidation in EURJPY (FLAG CONTINUATION) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS *Omicron the main driver for this pair at the moment *Anticipated rise in the cases globally after the festive season would make JPY safehaven demand rebound, thus sending EURJPY lower HOW TO TRADE? Trade could be executed at this moment with the following suggested details as the risk to reward ratio is favorable at the current price ENTRY: 130.000 & ABOVE STOP LOSS: AT SWING HIGH 133.750 TAKE PROFIT: NEAR SUPPORT 125.4000 RR: > 1:1 Cheers & Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
2
Gold Tests Higher LevelsGold got a lift breaking past our level at 1815, just barely. We are currently testing 1818 or so at the time of this writing and appear to be encountering some resistance. The Kovach OBV and Kovach Chande indicators are starting to suggest that we are overbought at the moment, which suggests that gold may dip or at least range a bit. If not, the next target is 1826. If we are unable to sustain the current levels, as the technicals suggest, then we should retrace back to 1795 with ease. Recall that we have further support in the 1780's with a floor at 1777.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
3