Safehaven
Short Failed to break yesterday's high so we should expect more downfall.. M formation, final leg down ready..trail with SL until target is reached
USD Roll OverWorked towards this moment for two years. 2018 was timid because of stronger USD bulls. This has caused this year to accumulate strength of other world economies and topped with greater volatility, not because of COVID imho. Although it did add some spice to the soup of spaghetti on this chart and ignited early acceleration of USD devaluation this year, leaving more room for the opposing currencies to regain and overthrow the king. FED must have seen this coming. Good luck USD bulls! Don't forget, the cycling of an economy and its currency is trivial to its core operation..
Stock markets are drawing a whipsaw in the middle of this earlier marked period of time, the mid of August, month of the UJ season .
Oil is ready to hyperinflate products and services worldwide imho. Bitcoin is almost ready to be another safe haven for USD devaluation, see my other idea on its correlation with Gold. Commodities appreciate in general, like all USD quoted assets. Prices will go up people. No reason to stock because there is an unlimited supply of USD, or not? Ask the FED ;)
Correlation between USD strength and stock markets is fading. Funds are already been taken out of the stock market. The Japanese pension fund, one of the largest in the world, will also have started. Wait for the JPY dip as it drops because of strong correlation with USD at the start of the season, then expect JPY appreciation because of international capital flows.
This season should end near December, if nothing unexpected happens such as a COVID wave 2 or Big Short II, because then it may stretch into 2011 and glue that season at the back as well.
Let the market float people otherwise it will bite you in the butt..
AUD/CHF AnalysisDescending Channel has been clearly formed and price is now at the top of the channel.
We have a confluence of other resistances around the 0.6550 - 0.6556 area. Pivot Point Resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci Resistance level is also in this area. Expecting price to drop to the support area before it bounce back. Its a Bear market. AUD is also in a Bull mood against the USD but Sentiment is also in favour of the CHF as everyone is going back to the safety of safe havens.
As usual, we play it safe by setting a tight stop loss, just in case the market changes direction.
Best Bond Trading Ideas Amid CoronavirusAfter plummeting a full handle, ZN seems like it is poised to retrace a bit. The collapse has created several vacuum zones and it is reasonable that it retraces slightly. It looks like we are seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern in ZN, which suggest an upside breakout. It is important to let the right shoulder fully form. Then watch the neckline at 139'13. The Kovach OBV is extremely oversold and the Kovach Chande has swung back, so a short trade may be crowded. We have a green triangle on the KRI at the head of the inverse H&S suggesting this may be the bottom.
Best Way to Trade the Gold SelloffGold has cratered along with the other safe havens. It has careened through the 1900 handle back down to 1800's, currently finding support at 1863, which is a strong technical and Fibonacci level. It appears to have completed the 5-3 Elliott Wave. Observe that even with this correction, gold can still be considered in a 'bull phase'. Especially considering the bounce it had off 1863. Current levels may make a good entry point for a long trade. We are right at 1941 at the moment, which is another technical and fibonacci level. A narrow stop would be good risk management. The next level above is 1975, but below we have a vacuum zone to 1906. The Kovach OBV has taken a nosedive, registering the selling momentum. It does appear to be turning, along with the Kovach Chande, suggesting that this bear phase may be ending, or at least coming up for air.
Top Gold Trading StrategiesGold has taken its first sustained dip, and this is the first time in over a week we may be able to pick up some at less than $2000. This still seems to be a retracement into the overall bull trend. It appears we finally have seen the corrective wave of the 5-3 Elliott Wave. The Kovach OBV has dipped, but only slightly, indicating the bull trend is still there. Current levels look like good areas to buy. The next level of support is 1973.
Best Eurodollar Trading StrategiesThe Eurodollar has retreated slightly from highs it achieved earlier this week. Currently, it is knocking about 99.815, the lower bound of this newly established price range. At this point it could bounce and test the upper bound again, or break lower and test 99.800, a level it has very much respected in the past. The Kovach OBV has dropped off, suggesting that the longer the Eurodollar spends at these levels, the more inclined it will be to test lower levels
The Best Way to Trade Gold During CoronavirusWe anticipated some ranging in gold before another breakout. Looks like we were a bit ambitious as to the breakout but we did see a bounce off 1973, as predicted. Gold does seem to be having trouble breaking out to new highs, which is understandable after how much it has rallied. The Kovach OBV has pretty much flatlined, so anticipate more ranging, if not a retracement. The levels 1973, 1955 or even 1936 may make good entry points.
Best Gold Trading IdeasGold continues to rally, having stalled at the psychological and technical level of $2000. The Kovach OBV has flatlined, indicating that it may range for a bit, feeling out new highs. Avoid fomo-ing into a trade here. Although we are still bullish of gold, a retracement is to be expected (and even necessary) for the sustained appreciation of this product. Watch the levels identified. Obviously $2000 will provide significant resistance so keep vigilant
GBP JPY - ride the wave downHello analysts and traders,
We have a long term sell in play - the reason why is end of the month and positions are manipulated in order to create tops and profit take.
is there a looming supply in which the supply and demand imbalance has created with retail traders still hoping for further longs?
Or are August September going to be safehaven assets?
Quick technicals;
- Channel has formed nicely -
- Bullish GBP and still a strong Yen .
- Awaiting a nice rejection of the supply mid channel or top of the channel.
- Fibonacci - retracement almost at 50% monthly.
- Price on the wider timeframe keeps showing a great wave pattern to the downside.
Fundamentals -
Brexit deal looms and trade deal around the world for the US needs to trigger a large response.
Why follow us?
Updates on our pairs as and when we can.
Swing trade out looks
10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced .
KISS - keep it simple stupid.
we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise.
If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes.
Thanks,
Team Lupa
Best Way to Trade Bonds After the FOMCBonds have broken out above relative highs and seem to be stalling about midway to the next level. The next level is 140'18 right before all time highs at 140'25. ZN is currently having some trouble with 140'06, which seems to emerge as a new technical level. Watch for a retracement here before bonds ascend more. The Kovach OBV is very strong, but the Kovach Chande is dipping indicating we may have a buying opportunity soon.
Best Gold Trading IdeasWe have been bullish of gold for a while now and how this paid off! We called the price target perfectly yesterday at the Fibonacci extension level at 1865. Honestly, we expected a nice dip to enter a position, but we didn't have a single pullback. Gold is in completely new territory, and it appears to have just completed the impulse wave of the next Elliott Wave. Watch for a pullback as the corrective phase of the 5-3 Elliott Wave forms. The momentum is very strong at this point, as verified by the Kovach Momentum indicators. The Kovach Chande has pulled back, indicating a lull. The pullback to 1850 may be all that we have at this point, but we could see 1837. We are in completely new price territory so the next price targets are in the 1900's.
Best Gold Trading IdeasGold is continuing the sideways Elliott Wave that we have identified last week. It has tracked our prediction almost perfectly. If we are right, expect another dip to 1795 or 1787. Although we are still bullish of gold, GC is trekking in the vicinity of all time highs, so watch for some more ranging before breaking out further. The Kovach Momentum Indicators are both oscillating, meaning there is some ambivalence here, and a trend has not yet been established (on 30 min charts.).
WEEKLY ANALYSIS EURJPY SHORT SETUP!! BREAK OF A CHANNEL!!Good day trader, I hope you have a great day ahead and start off your day with a good trade!
Start off with EURJPY, as shown on the chart above, you can see a break of an upward channel. Therefore, bear is most likely to take place and before a strong bearish movement, a correction is expected to take place.
We will be looking for sell opportunity at 50% and 61.8% fibonacci retracement zone. A push to -27.2% is most likely to happen if price reject EMA 55.
Sell limit: 121.118
SL: 121.500
TP 1: 120.30
TP 2: 119.826
Always go for a clear analysis and make sure to have a proper risk management for yourself. Happy trading traders!
EURJPY trend reversalDespite being undervalued based on PPP, the Japanese Yen has been depreciating for a few weeks due (probably) to a risk-on environment making the Yen as a safe-haven less attractive.
Being still undervalued, the Yen might be a cheap hedge against market downturns. Moreover, it seems to have reversed its downward trend and an appreciation against the Euro is now the base scenario for the coming weeks or months.
CADJPY H4 SHORT SETUP! Good day traders, first of all I would like to apologize for not uploading any analysis for the past few days due to real life commitment which is to handle my team and my family. Nevertheless, let's get started.
CADJPY has been in consolidation since June 2020. Price has broke a three top formation and it means bear market has started to take place. So I would be looking at a short position setup at fibonacci retracement level of 50% which is also inline with the neckline of triple top, a good risk reward ratio trade.
A good sell setup is as below,
Sell limit: 78.97
SL: 79.21
TP: 78.35
Happy trading. Always go for a clear entry and it's always you versus yourself, not you versus the market.
Best Trading Ideas for GoldGold has rejected our 1832 level from yesterday, but it did make quite a run for this level, falling just short of it. Gold futures have found support at 1815, which is a technical level which aligns with the nested Fibonacci levels. Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests that there could be one more run left in the tank. if we are wrong, it could retest lows around the 1800's or even the upper 1700 handle.
The Kovach OBV has been very strong but appears to have leveled off for now. The Kovach Chande has pulled back, confirming that current levels may be a great entry opportunity. If so, keep a tight stop, because there is a vacuum zone down to 1804.
AUD/CHF Trade AnalysisAUD/CHF has been in an Ascending Triangle since May. Price touched the bottom of the channel two days ago and there was sharp bullish rejection. The Sellers are still in control of the 0.6600 resistance area, but the buyers have used the momemtum of the positive US ISM report and the positive US Jolt Job openings report to push the price upward.
The market is still looking for direction, the coronavirus pandemic is not over yet, the economic crisis is not over and there are a lot of world issues like the China-in-Hong Kong crisis, US vs China trade war and China - India Border clash. This will increase Demand for Safe Havens like CHF and Gold. The triangle is almost at the end, A Breakout will soon happen as you can see in the chart. AUD Vs CHF. Commodity Currency Vs Safe Haven Currency. Bulls Vs Bears. Buyers Vs Sellers. Who will win?
Bullish SP500/GOLD trendline breakSP500 / GOLD looks bullish with a potential trendline break . This is a more aggressive trigger, a conservative trigger would be a close above the 20 EMA . The chart going up would show the markets preference towards stocks against the old time safe haven. Classic risk on/risk off analysis. Let me know what you think! Also, follow me on twitter @WhosTrend
Gold has More Room on the UpsideWay to Gold! The gold has once again broken new high and reached 1779, a level not seen in more than 8 years.
As high as gold already was, the demand for safe-haven asset continued to rise through the pandemic.
There are so many reasons - the unprecedented printing of money (i.e. bond purchases), the super low-interest rates which will last for a couple of years, and of course the uncertainty of the pandemic and the recent surge in COVID cases in the US.
Historically speaking, the most recent financial epidemic in 2008 has clearly shown us just how much can gold climb while the economy is trying to recover from recessions and depressions.
So, just in case if you're thinking that the gold is over-valued, it's probably more like 'undervalued'.
The break of a new historical high could very well be the beginning of the rise of gold price.
However, it's likely inevitable that strong resistance will be faced the nearer price gets to the historical high of 1920, and before that, the near 9-month supply zone just right ahead.
As of now, gold should have a smooth journey ahead to climb further, at least not before it reaches 1810.
