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Safehaven

EUR/USD - Euro Resilience - BuyIn addition to my previous post which was forecasting a test of 1.15000 and last years August 2019 resistance has demonstrated Euro residence on a risk off day with all major indices down (Airlines and Retail the dominant forces in the sell off). On a basis of euro stimulus and 2nd wave outbreak in the US this could be seen to be a golden opportunity to test the 1.15000 mark. However, safe haven risk off trading could put the ball in the dollars hands. Trade Idea: I would be keen to see if EUR/USD can maintain the upper tier of 1.13000 level with placement of stop loss below the 1.13400 level which it has struck over the past 24 hours and managed to bounce up. TP placed depending on stability above the 1.14000 at either 1.14400 or 1.15000.
Long
by darrenkav25
Kiwi Safe Haven - Massive bull run setup - Target: ParityAccording to recent data, New York City has only made 30% progress toward herd immunity. See this link: www.worldometers.info - The implications of this are highly material. The rest of the USA is at far less progress to immunity (thankfully). The USA is rapidly printing money as Trump is in denial about the pandemic. It is well known that Trump refuses to even wear a mask. New Zealand is the opposite: their strict and rapid intervention has squashed the spread of Covid. Incredible work, hats off to Jacinda Ardern. Bravo! There are three paths to end the pandemic: 1. Water-tight temporary lock downs (See New Zealand), 2. Herd immunity, 3. A vaccine. Trump is pushing the USA down the road to Option 2 -- Likely the most expensive in every respect. The USA will water down the dollar through the summer and loads more as the economy collapses this fall. This is inevitable following option 2. I believe we can view New York's 30% move to immunity in line with Elliot Wave in the major stock indices in the United States. Given we're only 1/3 the way to the end, it is evident we have Elliot wave 1 and 2 on the charts. Wave three is usually the strongest-- that hasn't happened yet. When it does occur, the demand for a safe haven will spike, NZD is the obvious choice. I believe bleak economic results this summer will be the catalyst to get a selloff started, followed by rapid Covid spread once fall sets in. All the while New Zealand will be open and operating, printing far few dollars as compared to the USA. This simple fact will make the Kiwi a safe-haven currency for the next 10-12 months. I predict we'll see parity in NZDUSD by December 2020. Ironically, the US will be forced to do its own New Zealand style lock down this fall and winter, after which we'll see the beginning of an actual recovery.
Long
by scottybfx
An Obvious Investment. Profits 100%+.Everyday you hear of recession and taking a quick look at gold stocks, they seem to be the safe haven and profit maker during financial uncertainty. Take a quick look at New Gold during the recession years of 2009-12. Gold stocks rose with the price of gold and this stock under $1 is an absolute must buy. NGD is in line with its historic lows of 2008 and has only up to go from here. A slowdown is happening, recession is inevitable. Some say that Bitcoin is the answer, but, large investors and institutions will direct their funds from Bitcoin to gold , gold stocks, and precious metal mining stocks. The price of Bitcoin would drop during a recession as investors will seek safe havens. Bitcoin does not have the stability to be considered a safe haven as it can drop 20-40% in a single day. You can rest at night knowing that gold at most falls $40-50 a day, but averages $5-10 swings per day. That is true monetary stability. - Buy In : $0.90-0.99 - Short Term Target : $1.30 or 30% - Long Term Target : $7.00 - $10.00 or 600-900%. The signs are everywhere, the numbers prove it. Most of Europe is in recession. Import/Exports are down. China's GDP is the lowest in 25-years. Brick and Mortar stores are closing faster than ever. Massive restructurings = massive layoffs. This is sounds like 2008 all over again. Be prepared, invest smart.
AMEX:NGDLong
by WorldEconomics
4
XAUUSD GOLD BUYYGold will always be the safest investment epically with the world circumstance nowadays so I have published this trade to everyone to take this opportunity before you regret it our first target is $1800 and 2nd target is $1900 and our final target will be above $2000 as we are heading to a huge financial crisis we never saw in history which will attract investors to buying gold. the reason I say we are heading to a financial crisis is because the total world GDP atm is $85 trillion dollars and the world debts is 3 times higher than the GDB which is $260 trillion. EU have once said when the world debts is more than 60% then we are in a dangerous situation and today we are 300% higher than the GDP. To conclude we are gonna have a huge financial crisis which is different than any we had in the past (2008&1929) and also USA will start the war with China before the election and starting the war will make trump win the election.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by LDNGLOBALMARKETS
What comes down first? GOLD/SPX analysisGOLD and equities rose together for quite some time already, not showing particular divergence. What one would expect in such turbulent times is that GOLD outperforms equties more since money flow goes to safe havens instead into riskier assets like stocks. But at this moment such divergence is not as clear and doesn't indicate such thing. Now we have huge instability in economies/markets worldwide and investors are very cautius with their portfolio structuring. Last equity fall got many investors selling gold at the same time to cash out to meet margin calls for their equities instead of just selling them. Usually what happens is that GOLD sharply rises back and equities barely. Another thing is GOLD is the original and probably the best liquid alternative, and seems investory rely much more on GOLD than on bonds for example, and that points out how much this crisis and situation is uncertain. That has been going on for a while, because wherever you look you see negative yields or small yields, but not on GOLD. The real question here is what could go down first, equities or GOLD? It doesn't take some wisdom to conclude that this money printing and expansionary monetary policy is not something to be taken for granted. It never was! Equity rally driven by low rates and bond buying programs seems to have got us to the point where we should re-consider valuations and try to figure what the next move will look like. The SPX/GOLD ratio fell underwater since consistent wave of appreciating since 2012 and now currently sits at 1.7 below 1.8 support confluence level. If stock market goes down another time, we probably could see same scenario happen once again, but this time with much smaller correlation since I beleive most of investors already took their losses into the account and cashed back into the gold and other safe havens waiting for such scenario to happen. But this is also ''a sword with two ends' since it's yet unclear which side will prevail. TECHNICALS: GOLD is slowly going into 1800 confluence, while S&P is near 3k which is also huge confluence level. 20/100 ema's are well supporting GOLD for quite some time, while S&P is being held by 100ema on daily and 20ema on weekly along with .618 fib level. RSI is slowing down on GOLD creating a price/momentum divergence, while on S&P is kinda quiet with volume decrease still being bullish and above 50. IDEAS: I would consider GOLD being better candidate to come down first due irrational market sense and due exhaustion at mentioned levels. If we get 1800 we will probably see many investors cashing out on their profits and pump in equities since it's likely 3k breakout will happen at the same time. However I beleive that won't last long since FED looks to ease down a bit with their spending and trade wars are weighting a lot on current sentiment, so stocks should follow afterwards. If vice-versa scenario happens it's best to wait for central banks next decision which might go towards even negative interest rates to save the economy and pump the stock market, so correlation will follow back. After key levels I will update analysis and possible trades.
G
by fxmonarchy
TDOC ConsolidatingTDOC hourly showing a falling wedge within a larger symmetrical triangle. Bullish Divergences on hourly RSI and Stoch RSI. MACD bottoming with slight divergence as well. Finally a good volume buy this morning, but more is needed. How to play this: 1. Wait for breakout of the falling wedge (safest) 2.RSI trendlines tend to break out before price does. If it crosses and closes on an hourly candle, may be a good early entry before price follows. 3. Volume precedes price. If you see another 2 or 3 strong volume candles such as this mornings, take a position. 4. As you can see the falling wedge bottom is outside of the symmetrical triangle. Prepare for a possible shakeout to the 168 support before this thing starts its ascent. May not happen, but this is too clean thus far. Would not be surprised. Would buy 2/3 of position here and 1/3 in case of the shakeout at 168 Targets: 188-190 by end of month. If has enough strength at that point, this goes above 200 on breakout of the symmetrical triangle.
NYSE:TDOCLong
by Matewan3291
2
GOLD - XAUUSD two possible scenariosGOLD is currently approaching a strong rejection zone in blue 1800-1900 so we will be looking for objective sell setups on lower timeframes. Keeping in mind that price can still dive in inside our zone before going downward. On H4: price is currently trading inside our red symmetrical triangle. scenario 1: waiting for price to break below our lower red trendline objectively to sell (trend-reversal) scenario 2: waiting for price to break above our upper red trendline objectively to buy (trend-following)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
2
Gold Outlook - Is it really a safe haven?Let's start with a bit of background information on Gold . There is something wrong with the predominant view about Gold, treating it as a safe haven. It is one of the most speculative commodities in the market, if not the leading one. After the global economic crises in 2008, immense volumes of liquidity and the declining treasury yields (ps. gold has an inverse correlation with treasury yields) gold prices spiked up to its ATH at USD 1.900 . However, we have experienced a 45% retracement back to USD 1.000 levels after that. A SAFE HAVEN WOULD NOT LOSE 45% OF ITS VALUE, PERIOD!! Considering the past 6 months, gold has been priced purely on speculation and fed by the rising tensions with Iran and trade war drama with China. To crown it all, Corona Crisis was added to the play as well. Furthermore, Silver and Gold has always been closely correlated and yet Silver did not keep pace with the latest rally of Gold. The increasing gap between Gold and Silver correlation could also be considered worrisome for Gold prices. On the other hand, we have recently experienced in the latest crash of stock markets that the investors closed their gold positions to cover their margin calls. In addition, Passive Funds are known to sell all assets including gold positions when they're in BEARMODE. So the next expected leg down on the stock market is possibly going to crash gold prices too. After this boring entry, let's dive in to our technical analysis and see what to expect for the days ahead: In the first trading day of this week, we'll probably see a reversal from the current prices or the range above at 1.715 - 1.720 . It will be a good short trade setup with a nice R/R, targeting the first demand zone at 1.640 - 1.650 , which offers 650-700 pips profit. However, be cautious about President Trump trying to blaze the trade war drama again. That might trigger a move up to 1.775-1.800 range. On the downside, the following ranges for possible rebounds are; 1.605-1.615 zone, 1.570-1.580 zone for the coming days. Our experts predict that gold prices could dump to the key levels at 1.350 - 1.400 in the mid term. Join us at our free telegram channel @bullsitrading and let's trade together.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BullsITrading
1
Gold when markets entered risk-offHi Guys, On Feb 20 markets started to go down due to COVID19. Here I posted some daily screenshots of: SPX, DOW, NASDAQ, DAX, CAC, FTMIB, FTSE, WTI When economic conditions weaken and risk appetite decline, Gold normaly goes up because it is considered by many a safe haven. But the move in Gold did not happen right on Feb 20. Instead Gold went down to find support on the 200SMA before starting the run up into April. To note that RSI is approx to enter above 70 zone which means overbought. However, in the short term, this is a signal of strong bullish momentum IMHO. There is also to note that the move made by Gold from Mar 20 is very similar to the move made by stock markets on Mar 23 when FED shot their "bazooka". However, whilst what happened from A in stock markets is a "bear rally", what happened in Gold from A is a "bull run". GOLD BULL RUN SPX BEAR RALLY Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
GBPJPY - Short - Take Profit 130.000Short trade recommended with a take profit of 130.000 Fibonacci Retracement at 0.382 struggling to break through the past 10+ days to the 0.5 retracement level. The real test of this trade once reached is the 132.500 level which has proven extremely difficult to break over the past 10 days. The upside today was based on a wave of fundamental news (Postive) and strong index performance across the globe seeing between 5% - 8% gains across the globe weakened the YEN. The evening seen a snap downwards due to minister being admitted to ICU. I expect to see downside in Asian session tonight (Provided no positive news moving futures upwards).
Short
by darrenkav25
1
Gold Holds The Shine 🌟👑🌟The precious metal not losing its seat against other assets knowing the fact that uncertainties are still spiraling around the world by that pandemic. Every time risk bets work fine but at end plunge back to what it gained and it seems no reason to hope much from risk bets still and market players aren't leaving their hands off from this precious metal. The precious metal is already in the middle of a climb these days back again, and the ongoing COVID-19 market turmoil could provide additional momentum for a longer-term climb. The flurry of interest rate cuts and stimulus efforts from central banks eventually sparking a divergence between equity markets and gold. Can't neglect the historical financial crisis facts when the bling nearly tripled its value from $700 to $1,900 . What do you think we are facing right now? Thanks for reading my idea fellow traders if it added some value in your trading please do support with likes and follow so I can bring such interesting post again for you.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by jessi061