XAUUSD (Gravy Train)Rough sketch but you get the picture. I'm fairly new to trading so I'm not sure of all the fancy wave names and the technical nomenclature but this is what the chart is saying to me. I'm just listening to what its saying (or moreso what I see). It's damn a near flip flop of how the directional trend got started.
Lets eat. Amen.
Safehaven
GOLD ProjectionsIn an overall uptrend (daily chart), gold has begun to form a descending wedge which in and of itself is also a bullish indicator (price has been in decline since Sept 04's high). To go along with the observed uptrend, I fully believe that XAUUSD will continue its rise into the winter after retracing down to the bottom of the trending line. Some speculate that the action will continue to push downward however, from my analysis there's not indication of such a move happening. Now, if the price point happens to break below $1410, then we have a completely different ball game.
GOLD: pushed down despite US-China trade deal delayedHi Guys,
hope you are all well and doing good with your businesses.
The above chart shows how Gold has been swinging for the last two weeks.
Please note that I modified the RSI to 88 in order to follow price action above and below 200 SMA.
Violet line are just levels.
Despite the news published yesteraday by Reuters at 17:30 that the US-China trade deal was delayed (such news initially scared the market), Gold has been pushed down by 200SMA because, IMHO, positive news of a forthcoming happy ending are prevailing anyhow.
Despite the delay, comments from both US and Chinese representatives remained very optimistic.
In order to put in evidence where this swing is happening, please find below a screenshot of the 1H chart with parameters unchanged compared to the previous ones used in the 15m chart.
The area inside the circle is the move considered in this post.
Below some questions I am asking myself in this moment:
1) is this chart usefull? what does it say?
2) the swings are self evident imho but where should its center of gravity be placed?
3) will the 200SMA keep pushing down?
4) where are the opportunities?
5) is the period xy a distribution period just ended?
6) could it be unfolding a Zig-Zag?
If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
EURUSD Could Test 1.10000 Level After Double TOP Neckline Break!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details:
• ENTRY POINT
• STOP LOSS
• TAKE PROFIT
• RISK TO REWARD
The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade.
My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis:
• Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout.
• Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade.
• I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis.
• Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup.
Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis.
Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can!
The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
EURJPY (Cross) Likely To Decline Towards 120.200 level!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details:
• ENTRY POINT
• STOP LOSS
• TAKE PROFIT
• RISK TO REWARD
The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade.
My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis:
• Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout.
• Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade.
• I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis.
• Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup.
Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis.
Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can!
The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
GOLD: following my post dated Sept.25thHi Guys,
following the deterioration of US-China negotiations at the beginning of September that prompted the formation of B, Gold mantains its range between 1520 and 1480.
In order to better capture the attitude of market partecipants towards safehaven, I recommend to look also at USD/JPY as they are inversely correlated and may provide additional clues on possible direction.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
ORBEX: Risk Aversion & Poor Data Move USDCHF & USDCADIn today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about trade war uncertainty and Trump's impeachment and how has safe-haven Franc reacted to the latest headlines!
I also talk about Canada's poor GDP figures, a bit more certain given the numerical value, and analyse USDCAD's rise.
With Fed flows still weighing on markets, #NFP hours ahead and #ISM closing the session it's going to be a very interesting weekly conclusion.
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
usd/jpy safe have to 111.000When there is uncertainty around the wordl people tend to use their money into safe havens like eur/jpy and usd/jpy
I think it's a nice oppurtunity to trade on this pair because also there will probably be a fed cut, so people can put their money on safe havens.
Don't put your money when there will be a recession in US because this won't work as hard as gold do. during finacial crisis usd/jpy en eur/jpy like in 2008 falls heavily.
Have a nice tradiing week and use always demo before you trade in real account and with small lots.
TLT LongTLT has pulled back to a very key trend line with additonal supports coming in below. On the hourly chart, we have positive divergence on TLT meaning we should see upside soon in the short term. Given the postures of the markets and how treasuries act as a flight to safety asset, it is reasonable to assume they will go up in price as stocks fall.
For this trade, I advise picking up TMF (x3 leverage) with a stop anywhere from 28.00 to 26.60. I also recommend scaling into the position with 2 or 3 batches comprising your total allocation that you are willing to invest.
USDCHF Likely to Test Parity After Trendline Break!Please check the chart for entry and stop details. shall there be any updates i will provide them in the thread below. please note that there is detailed technical and fundamental analysis that are incorporated into this trade of which majority are not visible. Cheers
ORBEX: GBPCHF, AUDJPY - Tradetalk & Brexit Signals Mixed! In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #gbpchf and #audjpy minors!
Both pairs are showing an identical pattern and are indeed influenced by:
AUDJPY
- Tradewar tensions but latest from positive developments on the back of a potential partial deal Chinese are willing to do
- Positive Home Loans in AU and negative BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index figures
GBPCHF
- Blury Brexit developments with the risk of an election following an extension increasing
- UK-EU talks not looking good despite EU announcing otherwise
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Gold - Another Push To The UpsideFor this setup we have:
- Elliott Wave minor wave 2 completion and a potential of a minute wave 2 completion (completing within the range shown on the chart) once complete will push price violently to the upside.
- Middle of Elliott Wave channel as support.
- Minor 50.0 Fibonacci retracement (Wave 2 could complete within the range shown on the chart).
Overall, there is still a lot of potential for Gold to the upside, due to the US-China trade war uncertainties and a manufacturing recession in the US which was shown to be in the contraction territory for the last 2 months. Therefore, I believe that there will be another flow to safe havens which makes Gold a great set up both technically and fundamentally.
SL: 1465.00
TP1: 1536.00
TP2: 1557.00
TP3: 1585
Enjoy!
XLU Buyers hopping in again?The defensive utilities sector has been on a strong uptrend since 2018 as markets trembled with uncertainty and bulls threatened to buck. After some profit-taking at 65 dollars, there is reason to believe that there may be another leg up as buyers seem to be returning with bullish price actions observed last trading session.
ORBEX: GBPUSD, USDCHF - Another Fed Cut?, BoJo's Plan Falls FlatIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD and #USDCHF
#GBPUSD moves on:
- BoJo plan optimism on Commons
- BoJo plan falling flat on Good Friday agreement threat
- BoJo plan creates new borders, still seen as backstop
#USDCHF looking bearish on:
- Weak ISM NMI
- Increased chances of rate cuts
- HIgher fears of recession
All eyes on NFP today! Can watch live here: www.orbex.com
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
XAUUSD: 4H Channel Up signals a Buy Entry. Target above 1,550.Gold suffered a set back this week but was technically expected as it was rejected on the 1,535 top of the Symmetrical Resistance Zone. It did manage to hit our previous 1,528 target as seen below:
This pull back has created the conditions for a Channel Up on 4H and as long as 1D remains neutral (RSI = 51.051, MACD = 6.710, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) the upside will be supported. Notice how there is a potential for a Golden Cross on 4H. Last time that happened was in late May right before Gold had bottomed at 1,260/70 and started its relentless Bull Run that broke through the 5 year 1,370 Resistance.
These parameters are more than enough for us to make us enter a new long trade with 1,550 - 1,557 as our Target Zone.
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Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
ORBEX USDCAD, USDCHF Under Pressure In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #USDCAD and #USDCHF
#CAD Supported by:
- By Drone Attack and #WTI surge
- Weaker Dollar
#CHF Supported by:
- Weaker Dollar
- Safe-haven flows on tradewar headlines
*Should be weaker following #SNB's downward inflation outlook revision
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
XAUUSD tapping in to 1487 soon!!Since the start of september we've seen how Gold has undergone a correction after reaching maximums that it didn't touch since 2013. This strong selling that started around 1557 has been mainly due to the fact that there has been an increase in optimism in US-China trade talks, which has been heavily influencing the price of gold during the last months.
1. First and foremost, price had a bad time trying to break the 4h support (now 4h resistance), until a strong bearish engulfing candle managed it.
2. After breaking this zone of sensitivity, price came down to touch the weekly support, bouncing during the last days to retest our 4h resistance.
3. Today we saw how euro negative news pushed price to the upside, breaking the 4h resistance zone and managing to touch our monthly resistance. However, this only lasted a few mintues as selling pressure affected price inmediately, leaving a strong bearish wick, and with the bears managing to break back again the 4h support. This symbolizes that bears are right now in control of gold and it is worth trying theses shorts!!
Tp: weekly support, around 1487.
Sl: a bit above our 4h resistance zone, around 1411