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Safehaven

Silver continues to push higherSilver markets rallied again during trading on wednesday reaching above the $17 dollar level during the U.S. market session. There is fear in the markets at the moment with three (3) Asian central banks cutting interest rates overnight (New Zealand, India and Thailand) which suggests this is a coordinated move. The global economy is certainly slowing down, suggesting we could be entering in to another global financial crisis and the safe haven for investors is precious metals and more recently - Bitcoin. We are already in a retracement from the latest high which has bounced from the 38% fib retracement zone. Price should now push up once more and our target is around the 17.60 level
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn666225
Gold continues to push higher as investors safeguard Portfolio'sGold - 4Hr - As with todays Silver trade idea, Gold is the safe haven when there is uncertainty in the markets. We have seen price push up over recent weeks and we don't think today will be any different. Yesterday we reached a high around the 1500 level. There is still room for the price to retrace to around the 38% retracement level, however we should then see the price on the move once more, following the trend. Our low is around 1490 which is also our entry point and our next target around 1535.
TVC:GOLDLong
by UnknownUnicorn666225
Opportunity Knocks For The NZDJPYWith global equities continuing to be supported by favorable liquidity conditions and little else, it was really just a matter of time before risk assets came under more pressure. The biggest red flag was flying in the bonds market, where global bonds have continued to rally sending yields sharply lower. Equities rallying strong along with bonds is not sustainable, and considering slowing global growth, trade conflicts, and political unrest risk assets have appeared the most vulnerable. The constant flows into bonds highlights the increasing uncertainty and demand for safety. The current equities decline started when the Fed disappointed doves with only a 25bp cut, delivered with a neutral statement. The decline was accelerated by news of new tariffs that will be imposed on China by the Trump administration. This sparked a sell off of risk assets, and flows into safe havens such as JPY and CHF. The USD missed the boat this go around partly due to the unwinding of the EURUSD carry trade caused by the quick spike in volatility. There were also some EM factors that contributed to the USD decline, but those are outside the scope of what we are trying to convey here. After all, we are here for the NZDJPY. NZD is a high beta currency strongly tied to the performance of the global economy. It is also directly impacted by the US-China trade conflict, just like its cousin the AUD. Today the RBNZ surprised the market by cutting 50bp (market was expecting 25bp). Soft inflation expectations wiped out any positive the currency picked up on strong employment figures yesterday, business confidence remains very poor, and the RBNZ has even floated the idea of unconventional monetary policy. All of these things should keep the NZD weak over the medium term. On the technical side, we have now traded through key monthly support, which should now serve as a barrier for any rally attempts. Over the coming months we are looking for continued declines towards 65.00 and then 62.00.
Short
by ChrisMathis
1
EURCHF Likely To Fall Further After Support & Trendline Break!Oh make no mistake, technically most of the EUR related are starting to show a strong bearish pattern . EURUSD could tumble to 1.09000 level in the coming months even on the back of a weaker USD!. The above link is shows the analysis behind the EURNZD which has a potential to drop . However since many central banks are shifting towards easing, typically in this scenario fundamentally makes the SAFEHAVEN FX currencies perform the best. CHF being one of the SAFEHAVEN alongside the JPY in my view would be best performers against the EUR in the coming months! Have a look at the main chart weekly TF chart of the EURCHF. The horizontal lines are concrete support and resistance taken from the monthly TF. At the moment i am awaiting the monthly candle to close beneath the orange support located at 1.11000 level for added confluence. Furthermore, we have a long term trendline which has been violated on a weekly TF, for added confirmation that is why its advisable to wait for the monthly candle to close below orange line. This would confirm the broken support turned resistance and channel has been officially broken! The next support lies at 1.06000 level, where the price could potentially head towards. This seems like a big PIP move but if you look at the fundamental factors, we are seeing the ECB shifting their monetary policy to accommodate the changes which would likely result in EURO depreciation over long term. I am seeing the monthly would close comfortably beneath the support by the end of this month and then its advisable to execute the trade SHORT with the target of 1.06000 and RR of 1:1. This just represent my analysis on this pair and i feel this a high probability trade setup in play. shall there be any trade entries i would post them in a new post.
Short
by FX618Analysis
Gold: what's happeningHi Guys, the first time I thought it could form a Cup & Handle it was on March 26, 2019 when I published the idea on TradingView. For easy reference please click the image below: Since then I've been trying to undestand gold behavior until it broke out the handle for the upside which confirmed the overall bias as a bullish continuation pattern. Factors that helped Gold to breakout the handle for the upside are: 1) US China stalemate beginning of May, 2) Theresa May stepping down with increase uncertainties over Brexit; 3) Raising tensions in ME; 4) FED posture; All these ingredients increased appetite for safe havens and Gold reacted in accordance with fundamentals and technicals. The main reason why I neglected Gold these days is because I could not find a target after the breakout. I knew it was running high but when it slowed down at 1360 I thought it was topping. Instead it went to 1440 following the FED on Jun 19. The day after the FED markets expected a rate cut in July. But the following week FED members inlcuding Bullard didn't sound dovish at all. This "U-Turn" made gold hit 1440 and retreat IMHO. Technically the move is completed IMHO as 1440 was the perfect Take Profit following the breakout of the handle. Infact, according to Investopedia: "A profit target is determined by measuring the distance between the bottom of the cup and the pattern’s breakout level, and extending that distance upward from the breakout." For full detail about Cup&Handle please refer to the full article: 1300 - 1160 = 140 1300 + 140 = 1440 Now we have to wait for the G20. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
XAUUSD possible pullback up to @1360. Open sell limit @ 1410-14Gold made a BIG move yesterday at Asian Session, that makes it move 300 pips in less than 3 minutes. I researched that the reason behind of this is the delayed Trade War talks of the United States and China. Now the Investors are shifting their equity into the safe haven assets just like Japanese Yen and one of it is Gold. In long term XAUUSD is being seen as bullish and it might go up to 1600. I would advise to open a sell limit at around 1410 and put a stop loss 100 pips on that area, and target around 400 pips that would make your ratio 4:1 Always use a proper risk management and always set your leverage low so that you wont get tempted to open another trade. Use STOP LOSS, it is not there just for display, it makes you save your account getting burned and being available to trade in the future.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by NathanielRondon
Mexican peso holiday & central banks are preparing for the worstThe week started quite well for the financial markets and with a huge relief for Mexico in particular. The point is that Trump decided not to impose 5% tariff on Mexican goods. The Mexican peso showed maximum growth over the past year. The Canadian dollar is below 1.33. Therefore a sharp decline in gold and other safe-haven assets against this background can be considered logical and logical. However, we would not advise relaxing. In fact, this is just one of the episodes. But in general, the picture continues to be rather precarious. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, heightened market optimism is a mistake of investors. Global economic data is likely to begin to deteriorate. Accordingly, Morgan Stanley recommends selling USDJPY with a target of 105. We will continue to look for points to buy gold and Japanese yen on the intraday basis. About the Japanese yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, contributed a lot to yen sales in the foreign exchange market. He said that the Central Bank is ready to expand the list of monetary incentives, if it is necessary. Panicking and selling off the yen is not worth it yet. Well, the Bank of Japan is satisfied with the content of the monetary policy and the general state of the country's economy. Nevertheless, the general trend in the behavior of the leading central banks is pretty clear: all as one declare their readiness to act in response to trade war escalation. Recall, earlier "pigeon" comments were seen by the Fed and the ECB. And the Reserve Bank of Australia, so generally, lowered the rate last week. We would like to note rather weak data from the UK in particular GDP dropped by 0.4% m / m, in April ( the analysts had been expected a declining by 0.1% m / m).In addition, industrial production collapsed by by -2.7% m / m (experts predicted a decline of -1.0% m / m). It is not surprising that the pound was under downward pressure yesterday. Today we are waiting for data on the UK labor market, which might finish the pound. Well, we will see. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, oil sales and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold.
Short
by Trade24Fx
JXY Downtrend"The U.S. stands out for its positive returns. Ten-year Treasury rates were at 2.16% on May 31, vs. -0.09% for Japan and -0.20% for German equivalents. The dollar has been taking away the mantle of safe haven thanks to interest-rate differentials. The flows into yen as a safe haven remains, but for us to see it go down to, say, 105, you’ll need to see a major geopolitical shock happen." Quoted from Jane Foley, head of currency strategy at Rabobank International in London.
TVC:JXYShort
by tom.baor
1
GBPCHF: Brexit VS Endless “War” messagesBy Andria Pichidi - May 31, 2019 Sterling has hit fresh trend lows against the Dollar, Euro and Yen, among other currencies. EURGBP buying has been the latest focus of pound selling, with the cross popping upward by 20-30 pips in making a 4-month high at 0.8866. Cable carved out a fresh 5-month low at 1.2581 late yesterday, and looks set to extend this. Given the risk of a disorderly no-deal Brexit scenario and deleterious impact the prolonged political uncertainty is having on the UK’s economy, Sterling has found itself as a natural currency to short, especially in context of a broader risk-off theme in global markets. In the UK, there is presently a lot of jostling for position of candidates to replace Prime Minister May, who will step down at the end of next week (after President Trump’s state visit). The leadership contest will formerly commence on the week of June 10th. The new prime minister will almost certainly be either a person in favour of a hard, no-deal-if-necessary Brexit, or someone in favour only of a Brexit with a deal, such as Michael Gove, who asserts that leaving the EU without a deal on divorcing terms and outline for a future trading relationship would be irresponsible. Most likely it will be someone of the former type, Boris Johnson being the favourite, which should keep the pound’s upside potential in check. Meanwhile, safe haven currencies remain strongly on bid, after President Trump unexpectedly announced tariffs on Mexican goods but also as China announced an “unreliable entities” list earlier today. China looks to be digging in deeper for a protracted trade war, with state-backed radio reportedly announcing that Beijing is setting up an “unreliable entities” list comprising of foreign businesses that cut supplies to China. Beijing had promised to response to the U.S. listing of Huawei and 70 affiliates to its “Entity List,” which these companies from acquiring components and technology from US firms without government approval. China hasn’t as yet release any details of who is on its blacklist. Hence as trade war headlines are endless, we have seen GBPCHF extending May’s drift with the another downleg, which bottomed at 1.2625 from 1.2680 . The strong daily decline so far today along with the extension of the lower Bollinger Bands pattern and the negatively configured momentum indicators imply to the continuation of the longterm negative bias for the asset. The daily RSI is at 24 looking further to the downside, however the fact that it has crossed the oversold area suggest the possibility of consolidation in the near future. Also MACD lines have confirmed a bearish cross in the negative area. Signs of consolidation in the near futures could be seen in the weekly chart, as the weekly candle is currently outside the Bollinger Bands, something that implies to an overextended price action. Therefore, we might see a bit of consolidation in the near future, however the overall outlook remains bearish, with the next Support for the pair being set at 1.2530 (January 15 low) in case the asset closes today below the 1.2640 area (previously the December’s Resistance area). Resistance levels come at : 1.2757, 1.2800 and 1.2850. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This com
Short
by HotForex
forexTrdr USDCHF- RESISTANCE TO PERSIST?Good morning traders, Clean setup on US dollar versus Swiss Franc with strong resistance levels keeping this pair in check and forcing it lower towards 100. Our trading view chart has highlighted the key support and resistance levels at play for this pair. We tested resistance levels again around 1.008 to 1.01 last week before pulling back and we are now looking for the pair to head lower within the range band down to low 1.00 before breaking out sub 1.00. On top of price action we have RSI finding resistance to moving higher and Stochastic turning lower pointing to a near term move lower. All of this adds as a back up to our view that safe havens are likely to remain bid over the coming weeks as China and US trade talks show no sign of a near term positive outcome. Follow us on tradingview under forexTrdr to get our sample ideas free and immediately - its free to setup a profile and the charting tools and software is easier to use than Metatrader and most broker platforms. Good luck trading from the Team at forexTrdr find us on instagram, twitter and Alexa flash briefings
Short
by forexTrdr
GOLD: just some thoughtsHi Guys, since Gold crossed into negative sentiment at the end of February, RSI has yet to be oversold. Last time it has been oversold it was in the summer of 2018 between June and August. Remember the Bull Run starded on Aug.16th, 2018? That was the last day Gold has been oversold. Having said that, please note the 3S representing areas of supports for the correction of the bull run. The 3rd S met with support of the 569SMA and pulled back when NFP were released between Powell's and Draghi's speaches in week17 and week18. The pullback helped Gold to breach the hypotenuse of the descending triangle and regain positive sentiment. Fundamentals supporting gold IMHO at the moment may be: 1) US China Trading negotiations not progressing; 2) US rising tensions with Iran; 3) People are not buying the dip in the stock markets that is on the hedge of a cliff watching an abyss below 2800; 4) DXY fell briefly below 97; Please also note that the pullback was stopped at 1300 which is psycological and may hide strong resistance. For further information on previous structures please refer to related ideas links below: Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
4
CADCHF Held By Trendlines! Where Would It Go Next?Have a look at the main weekly TF chart of this pair. Its a very tricky pair to trade if you look closely at it but if you look at the monthly TF, you will notice the price is rangebound for quite some years now. The red horizonatal lines represent the concrete support and resistance levels taken from the monthly charts. From the main chart, it can be seen that the price is held by various trendlines. It would be hard to explain here what could potentially unfold but if you look at the main chart, you would understand everything more clearly! On long term bias i am SHORT on this pair, but for weekly TF it could go anywhere but i believe LONG move upwards would be limited and the price would eventually come down and test the lower end of the range. This just represents my analysis on this pair. shall the trade criteria meet i will post the details in a new post. cheers
by FX618Analysis
CADJPY Might Drop To 79.000 Should US-SINO Trade War Persists!The chart shows the weekly TF where the price is confined in a well respected triangle! The nearby red horizontal lines are the concrete support and resistance levels taken from the Monthly charts. Currently should the price break the triangle to the downside, we can expect the price to fall towards 79.000 level, On the flip side should the price break to the upside, the potential target here would be 87.000 and 91.500. However, the current fundamental picture suggest a break to the downside is more favorable as the trade war fears are back in action and risk OFF markets are dominating. In the current state of the market we can expect the safehaven FX pairs to gain traction such as the JPY! Moreover, OIL which is closely related to the CAD pair looses steam in risk OFF markets as the global slowdown fear persists!. So taking all this into consideration, should the triangle break to the downside we can probably expect it to HIT 79.000 level This just represents my analysis on this pair and should the trade criteria meet i will post the detail in a new post. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis