Safehaven
XAUUSD possible pullback up to @1360. Open sell limit @ 1410-14Gold made a BIG move yesterday at Asian Session, that makes it move 300 pips in less than 3 minutes. I researched that the reason behind of this is the delayed Trade War talks of the United States and China. Now the Investors are shifting their equity into the safe haven assets just like Japanese Yen and one of it is Gold.
In long term XAUUSD is being seen as bullish and it might go up to 1600.
I would advise to open a sell limit at around 1410 and put a stop loss 100 pips on that area, and target around 400 pips that would make your ratio 4:1
Always use a proper risk management and always set your leverage low so that you wont get tempted to open another trade. Use STOP LOSS, it is not there just for display, it makes you save your account getting burned and being available to trade in the future.
Long Gold!Gold is breaking resistance levels in most indices.
With the probability of the fed cutting rates at almost 90%, Gold seems like a great option for a medium-term investment.
USDCHF LONG Swing Trade Executed. Price Aiming For 1.03000!Have a look at the attached link below for the full analysis behind this trade setup
ENTRY LEVEL: AT AROUND 1.01300
STOP LOSS: 0.99600
TAKE PROFIT: 1.03000
RR: 1:1
SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WILL UPDATE THEM IN THIS THREAD. CHEERS
EURCHF SHORT Swing Trade Executed! Price Aiming For 1.11700Have a look at the attached link below for the full analysis behind this trade setup:
INSTANT ENTRY: AT AROUND 1.13200 LEVEL
STOP LOSS: 1.14700
TAKE PROFIT: 1.11700
RR: 1:1
shall there be any updates i will update them here below.
Mexican peso holiday & central banks are preparing for the worstThe week started quite well for the financial markets and with a huge relief for Mexico in particular. The point is that Trump decided not to impose 5% tariff on Mexican goods. The Mexican peso showed maximum growth over the past year. The Canadian dollar is below 1.33. Therefore a sharp decline in gold and other safe-haven assets against this background can be considered logical and logical.
However, we would not advise relaxing. In fact, this is just one of the episodes. But in general, the picture continues to be rather precarious. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, heightened market optimism is a mistake of investors. Global economic data is likely to begin to deteriorate. Accordingly, Morgan Stanley recommends selling USDJPY with a target of 105. We will continue to look for points to buy gold and Japanese yen on the intraday basis.
About the Japanese yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, contributed a lot to yen sales in the foreign exchange market. He said that the Central Bank is ready to expand the list of monetary incentives, if it is necessary. Panicking and selling off the yen is not worth it yet. Well, the Bank of Japan is satisfied with the content of the monetary policy and the general state of the country's economy.
Nevertheless, the general trend in the behavior of the leading central banks is pretty clear: all as one declare their readiness to act in response to trade war escalation. Recall, earlier "pigeon" comments were seen by the Fed and the ECB. And the Reserve Bank of Australia, so generally, lowered the rate last week.
We would like to note rather weak data from the UK in particular GDP dropped by 0.4% m / m, in April ( the analysts had been expected a declining by 0.1% m / m).In addition, industrial production collapsed by by -2.7% m / m (experts predicted a decline of -1.0% m / m). It is not surprising that the pound was under downward pressure yesterday. Today we are waiting for data on the UK labor market, which might finish the pound. Well, we will see.
Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, oil sales and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold.
JXY Downtrend"The U.S. stands out for its positive returns. Ten-year Treasury rates were at 2.16% on May 31, vs. -0.09% for Japan and -0.20% for German equivalents. The dollar has been taking away the mantle of safe haven thanks to interest-rate differentials.
The flows into yen as a safe haven remains, but for us to see it go down to, say, 105, you’ll need to see a major geopolitical shock happen."
Quoted from Jane Foley, head of currency strategy at Rabobank International in London.
GBPCHF: Brexit VS Endless “War” messagesBy Andria Pichidi - May 31, 2019
Sterling has hit fresh trend lows against the Dollar, Euro and Yen, among other currencies. EURGBP buying has been the latest focus of pound selling, with the cross popping upward by 20-30 pips in making a 4-month high at 0.8866. Cable carved out a fresh 5-month low at 1.2581 late yesterday, and looks set to extend this.
Given the risk of a disorderly no-deal Brexit scenario and deleterious impact the prolonged political uncertainty is having on the UK’s economy, Sterling has found itself as a natural currency to short, especially in context of a broader risk-off theme in global markets.
In the UK, there is presently a lot of jostling for position of candidates to replace Prime Minister May, who will step down at the end of next week (after President Trump’s state visit). The leadership contest will formerly commence on the week of June 10th. The new prime minister will almost certainly be either a person in favour of a hard, no-deal-if-necessary Brexit, or someone in favour only of a Brexit with a deal, such as Michael Gove, who asserts that leaving the EU without a deal on divorcing terms and outline for a future trading relationship would be irresponsible. Most likely it will be someone of the former type, Boris Johnson being the favourite, which should keep the pound’s upside potential in check.
Meanwhile, safe haven currencies remain strongly on bid, after President Trump unexpectedly announced tariffs on Mexican goods but also as China announced an “unreliable entities” list earlier today.
China looks to be digging in deeper for a protracted trade war, with state-backed radio reportedly announcing that Beijing is setting up an “unreliable entities” list comprising of foreign businesses that cut supplies to China. Beijing had promised to response to the U.S. listing of Huawei and 70 affiliates to its “Entity List,” which these companies from acquiring components and technology from US firms without government approval. China hasn’t as yet release any details of who is on its blacklist.
Hence as trade war headlines are endless, we have seen GBPCHF extending May’s drift with the another downleg, which bottomed at 1.2625 from 1.2680 .
The strong daily decline so far today along with the extension of the lower Bollinger Bands pattern and the negatively configured momentum indicators imply to the continuation of the longterm negative bias for the asset. The daily RSI is at 24 looking further to the downside, however the fact that it has crossed the oversold area suggest the possibility of consolidation in the near future. Also MACD lines have confirmed a bearish cross in the negative area.
Signs of consolidation in the near futures could be seen in the weekly chart, as the weekly candle is currently outside the Bollinger Bands, something that implies to an overextended price action.
Therefore, we might see a bit of consolidation in the near future, however the overall outlook remains bearish, with the next Support for the pair being set at 1.2530 (January 15 low) in case the asset closes today below the 1.2640 area (previously the December’s Resistance area). Resistance levels come at : 1.2757, 1.2800 and 1.2850.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This com
forexTrdr USDCHF- RESISTANCE TO PERSIST?Good morning traders,
Clean setup on US dollar versus Swiss Franc with strong resistance levels keeping this pair in check and forcing it lower towards 100. Our trading view chart has highlighted the key support and resistance levels at play for this pair.
We tested resistance levels again around 1.008 to 1.01 last week before pulling back and we are now looking for the pair to head lower within the range band down to low 1.00 before breaking out sub 1.00.
On top of price action we have RSI finding resistance to moving higher and Stochastic turning lower pointing to a near term move lower. All of this adds as a back up to our view that safe havens are likely to remain bid over the coming weeks as China and US trade talks show no sign of a near term positive outcome.
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GOLD: just some thoughtsHi Guys,
since Gold crossed into negative sentiment at the end of February, RSI has yet to be oversold. Last time it has been oversold it was in the summer of 2018 between June and August.
Remember the Bull Run starded on Aug.16th, 2018? That was the last day Gold has been oversold.
Having said that, please note the 3S representing areas of supports for the correction of the bull run.
The 3rd S met with support of the 569SMA and pulled back when NFP were released between Powell's and Draghi's speaches in week17 and week18.
The pullback helped Gold to breach the hypotenuse of the descending triangle and regain positive sentiment.
Fundamentals supporting gold IMHO at the moment may be:
1) US China Trading negotiations not progressing;
2) US rising tensions with Iran;
3) People are not buying the dip in the stock markets that is on the hedge of a cliff watching an abyss below 2800;
4) DXY fell briefly below 97;
Please also note that the pullback was stopped at 1300 which is psycological and may hide strong resistance.
For further information on previous structures please refer to related ideas links below:
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
AUDJPY Swing SHORT Trade Executed! Price Aiming For 74.500
Have a look at the above link for the analysis behind this trade setup.
Entry level: at around 77.400
STOP LOSS: 80.300
TAKE PROFIT: 74.500
RR: 1:1
With Trump threatening fresh tariffs on Chinese goods imports, the aussie made a gap down there by breaking the trendline and looks to set to continue its downward channel move!
shall there be any updates, i will update them below as needed. cheers
USDJPY: Bat Pattern within Supply ZoneUSDJPY broke new low yesterday and has recovered fully.
The price has seen retraced back and beyond the breakout level at 109.50 which shows that USDJPY is prone to selling.
A bat pattern is formed in the process and the price consolidated within the supply zone.
This would be a good opportunity for an intraday sell where the price is expected to fall further on safe-haven demand of the yen.
CADCHF Held By Trendlines! Where Would It Go Next?Have a look at the main weekly TF chart of this pair. Its a very tricky pair to trade if you look closely at it but if you look at the monthly TF, you will notice the price is rangebound for quite some years now. The red horizonatal lines represent the concrete support and resistance levels taken from the monthly charts.
From the main chart, it can be seen that the price is held by various trendlines. It would be hard to explain here what could potentially unfold but if you look at the main chart, you would understand everything more clearly!
On long term bias i am SHORT on this pair, but for weekly TF it could go anywhere but i believe LONG move upwards would be limited and the price would eventually come down and test the lower end of the range.
This just represents my analysis on this pair. shall the trade criteria meet i will post the details in a new post. cheers
CADJPY Might Drop To 79.000 Should US-SINO Trade War Persists!The chart shows the weekly TF where the price is confined in a well respected triangle! The nearby red horizontal lines are the concrete support and resistance levels taken from the Monthly charts. Currently should the price break the triangle to the downside, we can expect the price to fall towards 79.000 level, On the flip side should the price break to the upside, the potential target here would be 87.000 and 91.500.
However, the current fundamental picture suggest a break to the downside is more favorable as the trade war fears are back in action and risk OFF markets are dominating. In the current state of the market we can expect the safehaven FX pairs to gain traction such as the JPY! Moreover, OIL which is closely related to the CAD pair looses steam in risk OFF markets as the global slowdown fear persists!. So taking all this into consideration, should the triangle break to the downside we can probably expect it to HIT 79.000 level
This just represents my analysis on this pair and should the trade criteria meet i will post the detail in a new post. cheers
GOLD possible full WXYXZ correctionAfter the strong impulsive trend started in November of last year, Gold is currently in correction mode. If the metal makes fully WXYXZ correction, we should be expecting one more strong correction wave to finish the Z wave. Not anticipating strong up movement until the resistance line broke.
In lower time frame, gold is in range play and it is better to wait for the breakout. I would recommend entering a sell position on the resistance line or wait for a strong downward move and enter on the pullback.
AUDJPY Channel Continuation! Price Likely To HIT 74.500 Level Have a look at the main chart of the weekly TF! Here we can see that the price has been confined in a downward channel. The nearby green horizontal lines represent the concrete support and resistance levels drawn from the Monthly charts. Shall the current ascending trendline inside the channel break, we could see the selling pressure build up towards the crucial support level at 74.500!
For the current consolidation ascending trendline inside the channel to break, it would be favorable for the weekly candle to break convincingly after which a slight retracement is required before going SHORT on this pair!
There is one more catch to this trade. have a look at the attached image above which shows the monthly TF picture of this pair confined in a long term triangle which has been respected on numerous occasions. So therefore we not only await for the weekly candle to close below the trendline but most importantly we must see the monthly candle close outside this triangle. If this all criteria are met, its an excellent chance to go SHORT on this pair!
This just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair at the moment. shall the trade criteria be met i will post the details in a new post. Cheers
NZDJPY Likely To Drop Towards 69.000 IF the Support Breaks Looking at the chart, the monthly TF gives an overall technical perspective to where this pair might be headed. the three green lines are concrete support and resistance levels traced from the monthly charts. Shall the current or future candle (Monthly candle) close below the 73.000 level (green line support) we can confirm that the triangle has been breached and the price would likely fall towards 69.000 level thereafter.
Fundamentally, the NZD is expected to loose most of its value this year as the economy is not doing too well plus the currency is highly overvalued against the USD too.
This just represents my outlook on this pair and its not a trade signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade details in a new post. Cheers
EURCHF Needs to Break WEEKLY 50 EMA To Target 1.11500 !With the H&S Pattern completed sometime ago, this pair Hit the support that lied in the region of 1.11500, from there onwards it started a rally that went back and tested the neckline of the H&S pattern. With the eurozone economy slowing down, we can expect the price to drop again towards the lower end of the range.
To do this, the weekly candle must breach the weekly 50 EMA and close below it. After that we have enough confirmation that the price is likely headed back southwards.
USDCHF Looks for Decisive Break Of Triangle to Target 1.03000!Whilst markets on RISK ON moods, the SAFEHAVEN FX pairs such as JPY and CHF TURN OFF the investors. In this case CHF is paired with the USD, which just thinking fundamentally about it is the best pair to trade alongside USDJPY when the markets are in RISK ON mood! While DXY (DOLLAR INDEX) has been declining in the last days this pair however has been building gains to go along. Now just imagine when the USD (DXY)starts gaining traction, it will most likely make USDCHF jump northwards propelling it to the next resistance that lies at 1.03000 level
Fundamentally the DXY is consolidating as EUR recovers. Once the EURUSD recovery is complete which could happen at around 1.145000 level, we may likely see USD bulls returning with sharp buying pressure which would result in USDCHF trend upwards.
Now for this to happen technically, have a look at the main chart where price seems to be confined in a slightly elevated triangle with the upper trendline preventing the breakout of this pair. We need the price of weekly candle to close above this trendline of the main triangle to confirm any long entry! After this is complete we have to let the pair retrace slightly before placing a BUY order with the potential target of 1.03000 in our sight!
I hope you find my analysis useful, if so i would appreciate if you leave a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you want to receive more analysis. Once the trade criteria are met i will post the entry details in a post with this analysis attached. cheers and thank you
YELLOW METAL Looking TO Complete H & S Pattern On DAILY Chart!
The above snapshot represents the daily chart of the yellow metal. it can be clearly seen that the head and shoulder formation might just be about to completed soon!
The main chart (4hr) shows the channel has been breached with EMA 50 adding further confluence to downward move which could target the potential neckline of the overall H & S formation.
Once the overall pattern is complete, its safe to say that this pair can potentially drop towards to 1267.000 level where the long term weekly ascending trendline lies!.
Looking at the big picture, i am overall LONG on GOLD, however i would only enter LONG once the price hits the 1270.000 area so the better risk to reward ratio is by my side. At the moment i am short on this metal. If you would to take short this yellow metal based on your own comfort and analysis i suggest the following trade entries:
ENTRY LEVEL: CURRENT PRICE 1300.000-1307.000
STOP LOSS: 1330.000 (ABOVE THE RIGHT SHOULDER)
TAKE PROFIT: 1267-1270 LEVELS
PLEASE FOLLOW THE ATTACHED LINK IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO TAKE THIS TRADE. I WILL BE UPDATING ANY CHANGES IN THE LINK ABOVE. cheers
CADJPY, LOONIE Might Break The Channel to Test 84.3000 Vs YEN Once the channel breaks together with the daily 50 EMA, we can expect the price to go north and test the weekly 50 EMA which lies at 84.300 level. the blue line support is derived from the monthly charts and its a concrete support which has been rejected and the price shows it might climb up. For this to happen the channel must break.
This just represents my analysis of the pair, shall there be any updates in the future regarding trade entry i will post them in a new thread. cheers
EURJPY (CROSS) Heading South To 123.400 ! A SHORT Trade setup ENTRY TYPE: IMMEDIATE ENTRY AT AROUND 124.900 LEVEL
STOP LOSS: 126.000
TAKE PROFIT: 123.400
RR: 1:1.55
SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WILL UPDATE THEM IN THE THREAD AS NEEDED. CHEERS
USDJPY and safe haven assetsSafe haven assets are on the rise. In the time to come we believe that safe have assets will continue their climb. US president Donald Trump recently stated that tariffs on China will stay until they comply with the “deal”. The “deal” is very difficult to comply with as it includes buying additional US goods and enforcing international copyright laws. This whole situation adds to the risk-off scenario and instability of world economic growth.
Dovish guidance from the world central banks add to this category of investment opportunities. The Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve all recently made comments that they will take a dovish approach to monetary policy and not raise interest rates in the near future. The SNB already is keeping interest rates at -0.25%. The lowest current interest rate in the world. Collectively the monetary authorities are indicating to us that we are in the late end of the business cycle.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have managed to standout in the currency markets. This is due to supportive economic data from their countries. Australia is enjoying an 8 year low in their jobless rate. The NZD actually picked up due to growth in their GDP. We would like to point out that the risk aversion currently present in the market could cause the Japanese Yen to grow while other currencies sink.
