EURJPY (CROSS) Heading South To 123.400 ! A SHORT Trade setup ENTRY TYPE: IMMEDIATE ENTRY AT AROUND 124.900 LEVEL
STOP LOSS: 126.000
TAKE PROFIT: 123.400
RR: 1:1.55
SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WILL UPDATE THEM IN THE THREAD AS NEEDED. CHEERS
Safehaven
USDJPY and safe haven assetsSafe haven assets are on the rise. In the time to come we believe that safe have assets will continue their climb. US president Donald Trump recently stated that tariffs on China will stay until they comply with the “deal”. The “deal” is very difficult to comply with as it includes buying additional US goods and enforcing international copyright laws. This whole situation adds to the risk-off scenario and instability of world economic growth.
Dovish guidance from the world central banks add to this category of investment opportunities. The Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve all recently made comments that they will take a dovish approach to monetary policy and not raise interest rates in the near future. The SNB already is keeping interest rates at -0.25%. The lowest current interest rate in the world. Collectively the monetary authorities are indicating to us that we are in the late end of the business cycle.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have managed to standout in the currency markets. This is due to supportive economic data from their countries. Australia is enjoying an 8 year low in their jobless rate. The NZD actually picked up due to growth in their GDP. We would like to point out that the risk aversion currently present in the market could cause the Japanese Yen to grow while other currencies sink.
CHFJPY Confined in A Weekly wedge. Awaits breakout Momentum!The blue lines represents the support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. If the price breakouts of the triangle in either direction the support or resistance levels next to them needs to be broken decisively in order for the technical aspects to be in our favour of the trade.
shall there be any updates i will post them in a new thread. this just represents my outlook and analysis on this pair. if the technical aspects of this trade meets, i will post the entry and exit details in a new thread. cheers
AUDJPY Looking To HIT 81.000 Level If the Range Breaks!AUDJPY is currently range trading that is visible by looking at the 4hr and daily timeframes. Looking at the main chart it can be seen that the price is confined in between the blue lines (range). Shall a breakout of the range occur to the upside, the price will look to target the 81.000 area where the weekly EMA 50 is present. Have a look at the snapshot of the weekly charts below:
From the chart above, the price is confined in a descending channel and is currently en-route to testing the dynamic EMA 50. Furthermore, the 78.000 psychological level is a concrete support drawn from the monthly charts which has been rejected on too many occasions notably most recently on the monthly candle and the flash crash that happened last month.
A LONG position is favored only if the range breaks to the upside, in other words the daily candle and NOT the 4hr Candle must close outside of the range on the daily charts . Followed by a slight retracement before we could execute a LONG entry. In the future if the price decisively closes above the weekly 50 EMA we could take this pair LONG towards the descending trendline of the main weekly channel.
RISK ON appetite in the market would make AUD more valuable in comparison to safehaven yen which tends be sold off more together with GOLD AND CHF, therefore if a trade deal is made which is a likely scenario we can expect the AUD to rally against the YEN.
This just represents my analysis for this pair, shall the opportunity arise i will post the entry criteria in a new thread. stay tuned and cheers
A Close Above MONTHLY 50 EMA Could Take NZDJPY Towards 83.500 Price is currently confined in a descending channel or wedge on the weekly charts with multiple tests occurring on both sides of the channel making it more and more potent if a breakout occurs!
The blue lines on the main charts represent the support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts and as of few weeks ago the 75.000 level was respected and now the price seems to be heading towards the next resistance that lies in the 83.000 region. For this to take place the channel on the weekly charts must be broken convincingly and most importantly the MONTHLY 50 EMA must be broken to the upside (the monthly price candle must close above the monthly 50 EMA). Have a look at the picture below for further illustrations
Once all these take place and fundamentals starts to align with technical picture, we can take this pair LONG with swing trading chance towards the 83.5000 level.
On the flip side, shall the trendline gets rejected again on the weekly charts, then we can take this pair SHORT (day trading chance) towards the support beneath at 74.5000 level. see the image below for the technical aspects for the SHORT trade
If the wedge is broken, the daily 50 EMA must be broken too in the process for the SHORT trade to be confirmed. Once this all takes place we wait for the price to slightly retrace before making an entry
Shall there be any updates i would provide them in a new thread. this just represents my personal technical analysis behind this pair.
Future Outlook as USDCHF approaches Crucial resistance!The 1.03000 level holds the key for this pair to reverse or continue trending northwards. As the price will likely approach the crucial 1.03000 level which has been respected on many on occasions, it is favorable for many traders to take advantage of this situation and possibly reap huge profits target with minimum stop loss. However keep in mind the certain channels and trendlines present should all be broken for added confluence.
It remains to be seen in the coming weeks how this pair behaves but we will surely see some big moves happening once that crucial resistance is hit.
Yellow Metal Aiming to test 1267.00 level Amid Risk ON appetite!
The above represents the analysis behind this trade setup. keep in mind our target set here is the weekly 50 EMA. Below are the entry details
TRADE TYPE: INSTANT SELL POSITION AT AROUND 1294.00 LEVEL
STOP LOSS: 1321.00
TAKE PROFIT: 1267.00
RR: 1:1
SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WOULD BE PROVIDING THEM IN THE THREAD. CHEERS
A SHORT Trade Setup for USDCHF. Triple Top Formation!Price has approached a crucial resistance level. triple top formation also happens to be present there. On the 4hr charts, it can be seen that the trendline has been violated and breached the 4hr 50 EMA too. The price might slightly retrace towards the daily 50 ema where out take profit levels lies too. have a look at the details below
INSTANT ENTRY AT AROUND 1.00480 LEVEL
STOP LOSS: 1.01300
TAKE PROFIT: 0.99600
RISK TO REWARD RATIO: 1:1
SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WILL PROVIDE THEM IN THIS THREAD. CHEERS
SAFEHAVEN YEN Aiming to Test the Lower Trendline Of the Channel Looking at the main chart it can be seen that the price is confined in a channel which is in a current uptrend! However a small pause is likely to occur before the long term price finds the right direction to trend again.
Looking at the above 4hr charts, there is a rough head and shoulders pattern that is present and a break of the neckline which also happens to be at the level of 4hr 50 EMA could signal a slight correction towards the ascending trendline of the channel. If a break does occur i will potentially wait for the price to breach both 4hr and daily 50 EMA before going short on this pair.
i shall provide any update for entry criteria shall the technical and fundamental picture meet. cheers
Anticipating Continuation of Uptrend in JPY - LONGTechnicals look strong to me on the HTF. As the global economy starts to get a bit shakey, we should see the safe haven currencies move to the upside.
2019 is the setup for when shit really hits the fan. Keeping a close eye on Indices and gold as well.
$USDCAD Safe Place?Following a nasty Jan 2-9 downtrend the $USDCAD has shown a rally since hitting that very strong support (blue line). This rally has lifted it to +2.16% for the month. Often regarded as a safe haven currency I can see major players jumping in on this really low price and soft rally. with a 200 day moving day average of 130866 as a solid stop loss this might be a great place to earn for a few days. We will keep close watch on the EMPLOYMENT data coming up on THURSDAY. HAPPY TRADING
EURCHF May Continue Or Change The Trend !EURCHF has been in a decline for the past several weeks. The trend may just continue or it may change its course as the price approaches crucial support level of 1.11000. Currently looking at the weekly charts (the main chart) the price is trending down just shy of the crucial 1.11000 level. Ina few weeks the price is expected to reach that crucial support and then from there on it may either make trend change and aim for the above red line resistance levels or it may continue to head south where other support lies.
Have a look at the daily chart in the below snapshot.
The price action has developed a descending trendline and it has been respected on numerous occasions. A further confluence factor can be intensified for LONG trade if the trendline breaks together with the resistance of 1.15000. Its advisable to enter LONG when the 1.15000 level is broken and retested so we can get a better risk to reward ratio. On the flip side should the crucial support of 1.110000 break then it may or may NOT follow the current descending trend!. However the main thing that needs to happen is that the support needs to be broken convincingly so our probability can increase.
All in all its a matter of being patient and let the price action play out so we can take a more risk to reward favored opportunity when the right time and circumstances appear. This is just my analysis and shall there be any trade signal i will post them in a new thread. cheers
H&S Pattern Complete On 4Hr EURJPY Chart. Await Trendline Break!The head and shoulders pattern on 4 Hour chart is completed although not that clearly. But it certainly shows that the price is likely to head Northwards. The neckline has been broken rather unconvincingly and together with the neckline lies the 4 hour 50 EMA which can often strongly act as potential dynamic support and resistance. For our trading odds to increase, the price needs to break this EMA sharply to the upside.
Furthermore just above the EMA lies another trendline that has been respected more than 2 times, therefore taking this trade LONG at the moment might not be the smartest of ideas as it can easily reverse. Have a look at the main chart that displays all the above chart pattern and trendline. Its advisable for the trendline to break so we can finally enter a LONG trade. Our target would be the DAILY 50 EMA that lies at the region of 127.000 level.
Have a look at the above daily snapshot of the chart. it shows the price is confined in a triangle after the flash crash that took place a few days ago. it has clearly respected the triangle trendline and as it seems the price is showing further evidence that its headed up after rejecting the lower trendline of the triangle.
Shall there be any updates i will post them in a new thread. this is just the analysis behind this trade setup although it goes deeper than this i have just put some important technical picture only. cheers and happy trading
USDCHF looking to Break High Or Low. All eyes on Trade Talks!As the trade talks begin today among the two largest economies in the world, this pair is looking at the outcome carefully. Any decision either good or bad can make this pair trade sharply. The Franc and JPY Often act as safe haven FX pairs when traders apply the risk aversion effect. GOLD also acts as a safe haven commodity too, but since switzerland's FRANC is backed by more than 75% of GOLD reserves its no surprise that FRANC acts as a stable currency.
Looking at the current chart of this pair the price seems to be rangebound in a weekly timeframe. the current price action seems to be forming an ascending trendline, furthermore as we head up a crucial resistance of 1.00500 can be found and should the pair break the resistance we can opt to go LONG and should it break the trendline we can opt to go SHORT. I feel the outcome of any of the above scenarios is purely based on the trade talks but i feel more confident in taking this pair SHORT as it would be backed by the claims that the FED will likely not meet the rate raising target this year.
Nevertheless, this a swing trade opportunity that i am watching closely and shall there be any developments i will be posting the update under this thread. I will also be looking to day trade this pair but i will need the trade talks to settle down and give clear direction as to where this pair is headed. be mindful that this week we also have the FED minute meeting release which might hide some important clues
Safe Haven YEN Stuck in a Triangle After Flash Crash!Had the FED kept on raising the rates, this pair would have shot higher and higher, however the outlook for 2019 does not look good for the USD as the FED come under increasing pressure from the US president. Currently according to the projections of dot plot the FED plane to raise the rates 2 times this year, however this may not even happen due to many factors. The flash crash that happened a few days ago was triggered due to the risk aversion by the market players which left the USDJPY trapped in a triangle.
The price may break to the either side and target the red line support and resistance as indicated in the charts. its advised to not make any move until the pair breaks the triangle on the weekly charts to either side. The fate of this pair is balanced on numerous things including the trade talks between china and the US. Should the talks go well and both parties can come to a stable agreement the pair would likely accelerate to the upside. On the flipside, if talks do not go good for both parties, expect this pair to break to the downside. depending on what happens then we can place a swing trade accordingly.
If you wish to day trade, then its advisable for the flash crash to settle and form clear price action that can support claims based on technical analysis. at the moment on the daily charts and 4 hour chart the price action is forming but it is still not clear. the target to day trade would be based on the either side of the triangle trendline.
It remains to be seen what will happen to this pair fundamentally in the coming days. shall there be any updates i will post them here
No where to run? Gold is coming back.Investors lose on both equity and bond markets as rates are rising and the economy globally is cooling down. Gold has been forgotten for years, good chance it will become a darling in 2019.
My price target for XAUUSD: $1360
NZDJPY downside continuation ?Tune in for my detailed analysis around NZDJPY !
**Correction: GDP release is Wednesday, not Thursday, sorry about that**
Is it time to hedge stock holdings with an investment in gold?
Lagging and volatile global stocks, a strengthening US dollar, and prospects of slowed interest rate hikes combine to create a potentially bullish outlook for gold prices.
From its value of USD$2,925.51 on October 3rd, 2018, the S&P 500 has fallen 10.01% to USD$2,632.56/share. Over that same time period, the price of gold has appreciated 1.69% to USD$1,223.38/ounce. A continued downturn in US stocks coupled with a downturn in global stocks will work to potentially drive further appreciation of gold prices.
Current high levels of inflation, as indicated by growth in the US consumer price index and producer price index in 2018, should also work to create a favorable environment for gold prices. The United States has seen consumer price index and producer price index growth above 2% for every month of 2018 -- the last time these indicators observed growth in excess of 2% over 10 consecutive months was from June 2011 through April 2012, when the price of gold appreciated by 7.84%, and from May 2011 through March 2012, when the price of gold appreciated by 7.42% respectively.
Strength in the US dollar also supports a bullish environment for gold prices. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index’s current value of 96.9920 is at the highest level seen since June 2017. Historically, gold prices diverge from the value of the US dollar amid a downturn in the latter.
Prospects for deaccelerated interest rate hikes in 2019 by the US Federal Reserve also bolsters a long-term bull case for gold prices. A slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed will likely spark higher inflation of the US dollar, which may cause investors to increase gold holdings to hedge against inflation.
While indicators like a strengthening US dollar, volatile global stocks, and high inflation combine to form a bullish environment for gold, supply and demand levels for the precious metal tell a different story. According to GoldHub, supply levels of gold have held steady since 2010 while real demand for gold (by the technology and jewelry industry) has trailed off. Although the current macroeconomic environment appears favorable for an investment in gold, gold supply and demand levels actually work against this thesis. Investors seeking to hedge their stock holdings with an investment in gold should tread cautiously and plan for at least a 1-year holding period.
What do you all think about a potential investment in gold? Leave your comments below! We would love to engage in discussion and hear what everyone has to think.
Safe Haven - add dividends REIT sectorReal Estate sector has shown to be safe haven and not oversold sector to other stock sectors, which were way oversold to value.
I give thanks today for understanding enough, but still expect growth here. Mid-term stocks usually do well in ensuing 6 mo.
period, however during bearish times a safe haven is a consideration.
If you have another sector, make it a conversation. FOREX, Crypto, and calls/puts would be only other if considered a sector.
Does anyone have link for history of when shorting (calls/puts) was created and why? Please comment @pokethebear.
SAFE HAVEN BUYING? TAKE A LOOK AT USDJPYWith the recent turmoil in the UK and Europe we are seeing a buying of safe havens currently this includes precious metals such as Gold and Silver. JPY is also the currency safe haven and as we can see currently the JPY is getting stronger after breaking our of the daily supporting trendline. If investors feel the need to buy the safe haven currency we could see prices here decline further back into the key support of 111.75. We are keeping an eye on the 4hr charts for pullbacks to previous lows to get involved.
Gold to bounce from strong support - Uptrend in playThe Gold price is currently sitting around the 1215 support level - we are likely to see a a strong trend continuation from this level if we are able to break above 1220. I believe the recent fall in the price has been a simple market correction, so my previous ideas on this commodity are still valid.
However, if the price is to break the 1215 level, we are likely to see it settle at 1210 and 1205 support levels.
Losses can exceed initial deposits when trading market instruments. You can manage your losses by using smart risk management. Identify what your entry, Take Profit and Stop Loss levels will be before you enter a trade. Stick to your trading plan, no matter the market conditions.
HG1! Is Copper ready to make a move?HG HG1!
Copper has been bottoming for quite some time. Economic trends are plumbing/housing, electronics, and EV vehicles, so let's step back and review.
* Oversupply for quite some time.
* Copper prices are historically peak in December.
* Housing/construction build rates for SF/MF/5+units is steady Yr/Yr for 5-yr and slight growth if any.
* Electronics is in steep decline from overstock parts and US-China trade war
* Electric vehicles are the new growth at 150+ lb. / vehicle for motor windings for copper, trend to continue as EV Class 8 heavy trucks will use 300+ lb. / truck (TESLA/NAV)
* Current chart showing upward movement from 618fibretracement to 500fibretracement as positive.
Maybe a micro trend without larger scope of current global economy, but something to watch for safe haven opportunities. VIX
The yuan hit a fresh 21-month low against the U.S. dollar Thursday, and the Shanghai Composite Index has lost about a quarter of its value so far in 2018.
ASX:KRC NSE:HINDCOPPER ASX:NZC OTC:CPPMF AMEX:COPX NYSE:SCCO ASX:CCZ TSX:NCU FWB:COQ OTC:HDRSF CCJ
~400% Move ETC Safe Haven - Last Crypto Leg Down before the MoonBased on weekly charts, most cryptos are due for big correction in relationship to the stock market crash. The only safe haven is ETC.
