Safehaven
USDJPY Weekly TF DEATH CROSS Confirmed! JPY Appreciation LikelyWhat is a Death Cross?
The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major selloff. The death cross appears on a chart when a stock/Currency's short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average. Typically, the most common moving averages used in this pattern are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
The death cross indicator has proven to be a reliable predictor of some of the most severe bear markets of the past century: 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. Investors who got out of the stock market at the start of these bear markets avoided large losses that were as high as 90% in the 1930s. Because a death cross is a long-term indicator, as opposed to many short-term chart patterns such as the doji, it carries more weight for investors concerned about locking in gains before a new bear market gets underway. An increase in volume typically accompanies the appearance of the death cross.
Source: www.investopedia.com
Now as the definition of this rare EMA crossover has been defined as above, we can technically expect JPY appreciation in the near future, which might be sustained due to many fundamental factors. If this holds right, we could not only see USDJPY Plummet over the coming years but also many JPY related currencies particularly the EURJPY, AUDJPY & NZDJPY.
The above snapshot is from USDJPY weekly TF which shows the occurrence of death cross signal, followed by continued decline of the USDJPY and recovery (golden cross). During the whole turmoil and the very start of the financial crisis back then, the death cross gave a strong signal of impending recession! The golden cross in 2013 was the sign of period of recovery in the markets as risk appetite returned and GOLD fell from multi year tops.
A week ago the death cross has happened again. In the main chart as it could be seen, the EMA used are 50 and 200. A crossover has already been confirmed at this point, but ask yourself this; could this be a beginning of a long term downtrend?
The answer to this question lies in the fundamental factors that are currently dictating the markets. The major factor here which is held accountable is the TRADE WAR!. For past one year this battle between the world's two largest economy has been going on with no end in sight, Furthermore things just seems to get worse as TRUMP is hell bent on reducing china imports into the U.S. The trade war has lead to the following things which has completely reshaped the financial markets:
1) U.S yield curve inversion has sparked the fear of recession forcing many to retreat to safehavens
2) Global slowdown resulting from the trade war, has forced many central banks to start an easing cycle of cutting interests rates
3) TRUMP is forcing The FED to cut interest rates aggressively in order to make USD weak and boost the economy
FED has now completely changed their course to easing with predictions coming for a 120BP cuts by the of 2020. Should the FED cut rates to support the economy from a possible recession we could see the USDJPY plummet whereas should they keep defying TRUMP and hold the rates steady or cut less, we could see this pair being stubborn to drop. All in all its looking more likely that the FED would keep easing slowly which would see JPY appreciate.
In other perspective, A global slowdown would hit NZD, AUD & EUR to such an extent that the JPY would gain stronger ground against all these three pairs compared to any other currency.
This is just my outlook on the JPY futures based on current and past fundamentals and as of now all things are pointing towards JPY appreciation. A trade entry could only be made based on technical picture in correlation with the fundamental one. Currently the price is held within a long term triangle, once breached we could make an entry and aim for 101.00. Shall there be any updates i will provide them in a new thread. cheers
FED Rate Cut Outlook & TradeWar May Take SAFEHAVEN YEN TO 105.00INSTANT ENTRY AT AROUND: 107.350 LEVEL
POSITION TYPE: SHORT
STOP LOSS: 109.500
TAKE PROFIT: 105.00
RR: 1:1
SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WILL PROVIDE THEM IN THE THREAD BELOW. BENEATH YOU CAN FIND THE ANALYSIS BEHIND THIS TRADE SETUP
As seen from the main chart, the weekly TF shows the price respected by a long term held triangle (black lines). The blue line represents another concrete trendline which was broken as the weekly candle closed comfortably outside the trendline. As of now the next support that lies is present at 105.00 level where the main triangle's lower trendline is present. So we can expect the price to make its way to that level in the coming weeks.
On the fundamental perspective, the prospect of US interest rate cut has already sent the greenback tumbling against all major currencies. USDJPY is the most sensitive pairs of them all. Inevitably the FED would cut the interest this year and it might be two times potentially! although this event has not been priced in at 100% in the markets, the coming weeks may seem to reveal further USD weakness as the prospect of eventual rate cut gets priced in!
Additionally, the trade war is not helping the greenback either against the yen, as any negative news or developments seems to favor traders rushing for safehaven yen. As said the coming weeks are crucial and will show clear picture as to where the price headed but at the moment the technical and fundamental picture are both in our favor.
GOLD (SAFE TRADES)In the coming future, I believe there will be a huge recession WORLDWIDE. Probably the worst one & Gold will be one of the best if not the best assets to invest in & trade.
Practically every nation is in debt; look it up. The government has debt, people have debt, but this debt keeps on being covered up. For example, debts like student loans, personal debts, mortgage debts, credit card debts, it all adds up. When debts aren't paid, who pays it? What you think Banks and them man do? naahhh. I'm telling you. A collapse is coming.
BTCUSD Possible Incoming ReversalFundamentally speaking in the long run, BTC like gold and other assets treated as risk-haven now will continue to increase in value if market continues to be risk-off esp with trade "talks" going nowhere and "rumored" recession coming within 2-3 years. But technical-wise, there's highly probable reversal soon at least in the short-run (within this month only) like what I'm seeing in metals esp if DXY forces its way up to 100 and equities start recovering from last Monday's correction.
Weekly:
Gold:
Silver:
DXY:
Confidence: B (bec this is not aligned with fundamentals and possibility of getting whipsawed, better to wait for the next "tail" to appear before shorting, or set a more conservative sell stop order below 12000 after bearish confirmation candles appear)
USD/JPY Technical analysisAfter a steep fall, the counter consolidated in a narrow range in the form of a descending triangle pattern.
The pattern by itself indicates a bearish bias, and it was validated by a bearish breakout as well.
Hence, we expect the counter to move further low from here.
EUR/CHF Technical analysisThe counter is in a strong bearish trend making lower lows continuously.
Now it has broken critical support of 1.09668 and is consolidating just below it.
We expect the trendline and broken support to cap any upside rally and nudge it down from here.
Silver continues to push higherSilver markets rallied again during trading on wednesday reaching above the $17 dollar level during the U.S. market session. There is fear in the markets at the moment with three (3) Asian central banks cutting interest rates overnight (New Zealand, India and Thailand) which suggests this is a coordinated move. The global economy is certainly slowing down, suggesting we could be entering in to another global financial crisis and the safe haven for investors is precious metals and more recently - Bitcoin. We are already in a retracement from the latest high which has bounced from the 38% fib retracement zone. Price should now push up once more and our target is around the 17.60 level
Gold continues to push higher as investors safeguard Portfolio'sGold - 4Hr - As with todays Silver trade idea, Gold is the safe haven when there is uncertainty in the markets. We have seen price push up over recent weeks and we don't think today will be any different. Yesterday we reached a high around the 1500 level. There is still room for the price to retrace to around the 38% retracement level, however we should then see the price on the move once more, following the trend. Our low is around 1490 which is also our entry point and our next target around 1535.
Opportunity Knocks For The NZDJPYWith global equities continuing to be supported by favorable liquidity conditions and little else, it was really just a matter of time before risk assets came under more pressure. The biggest red flag was flying in the bonds market, where global bonds have continued to rally sending yields sharply lower. Equities rallying strong along with bonds is not sustainable, and considering slowing global growth, trade conflicts, and political unrest risk assets have appeared the most vulnerable. The constant flows into bonds highlights the increasing uncertainty and demand for safety.
The current equities decline started when the Fed disappointed doves with only a 25bp cut, delivered with a neutral statement. The decline was accelerated by news of new tariffs that will be imposed on China by the Trump administration. This sparked a sell off of risk assets, and flows into safe havens such as JPY and CHF. The USD missed the boat this go around partly due to the unwinding of the EURUSD carry trade caused by the quick spike in volatility. There were also some EM factors that contributed to the USD decline, but those are outside the scope of what we are trying to convey here. After all, we are here for the NZDJPY.
NZD is a high beta currency strongly tied to the performance of the global economy. It is also directly impacted by the US-China trade conflict, just like its cousin the AUD. Today the RBNZ surprised the market by cutting 50bp (market was expecting 25bp). Soft inflation expectations wiped out any positive the currency picked up on strong employment figures yesterday, business confidence remains very poor, and the RBNZ has even floated the idea of unconventional monetary policy. All of these things should keep the NZD weak over the medium term.
On the technical side, we have now traded through key monthly support, which should now serve as a barrier for any rally attempts. Over the coming months we are looking for continued declines towards 65.00 and then 62.00.
USDCHF TRADE OpportunityHarmonic XABCD Pattern is forming on daily time frame wait for the B point once break above then there is room of 171 pips trade....
Also Sell Line os broken market is in buy zone area.
EURCHF Likely To Fall Further After Support & Trendline Break!Oh make no mistake, technically most of the EUR related are starting to show a strong bearish pattern . EURUSD could tumble to 1.09000 level in the coming months even on the back of a weaker USD!.
The above link is shows the analysis behind the EURNZD which has a potential to drop . However since many central banks are shifting towards easing, typically in this scenario fundamentally makes the SAFEHAVEN FX currencies perform the best. CHF being one of the SAFEHAVEN alongside the JPY in my view would be best performers against the EUR in the coming months!
Have a look at the main chart weekly TF chart of the EURCHF. The horizontal lines are concrete support and resistance taken from the monthly TF. At the moment i am awaiting the monthly candle to close beneath the orange support located at 1.11000 level for added confluence. Furthermore, we have a long term trendline which has been violated on a weekly TF, for added confirmation that is why its advisable to wait for the monthly candle to close below orange line. This would confirm the broken support turned resistance and channel has been officially broken!
The next support lies at 1.06000 level, where the price could potentially head towards. This seems like a big PIP move but if you look at the fundamental factors, we are seeing the ECB shifting their monetary policy to accommodate the changes which would likely result in EURO depreciation over long term.
I am seeing the monthly would close comfortably beneath the support by the end of this month and then its advisable to execute the trade SHORT with the target of 1.06000 and RR of 1:1.
This just represent my analysis on this pair and i feel this a high probability trade setup in play. shall there be any trade entries i would post them in a new post.
Buy yen USDJPY BAT H4A harmonic pattern is forming if potential B point is broken then there is favor able chances to pattern completion...
Gold: what's happeningHi Guys,
the first time I thought it could form a Cup & Handle it was on March 26, 2019 when I published the idea on TradingView. For easy reference please click the image below:
Since then I've been trying to undestand gold behavior until it broke out the handle for the upside which confirmed the overall bias as a bullish continuation pattern.
Factors that helped Gold to breakout the handle for the upside are:
1) US China stalemate beginning of May,
2) Theresa May stepping down with increase uncertainties over Brexit;
3) Raising tensions in ME;
4) FED posture;
All these ingredients increased appetite for safe havens and Gold reacted in accordance with fundamentals and technicals.
The main reason why I neglected Gold these days is because I could not find a target after the breakout. I knew it was running high but when it slowed down at 1360 I thought it was topping. Instead it went to 1440 following the FED on Jun 19.
The day after the FED markets expected a rate cut in July. But the following week FED members inlcuding Bullard didn't sound dovish at all. This "U-Turn" made gold hit 1440 and retreat IMHO.
Technically the move is completed IMHO as 1440 was the perfect Take Profit following the breakout of the handle.
Infact, according to Investopedia: "A profit target is determined by measuring the distance between the bottom of the cup and the pattern’s breakout level, and extending that distance upward from the breakout."
For full detail about Cup&Handle please refer to the full article:
1300 - 1160 = 140
1300 + 140 = 1440
Now we have to wait for the G20.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
As Yen is safe haven h4 crabMarket is giving signals in lower time frame to meet higher time frame targets, Deep crab is forming as market has not broke the structure yet its bearish...
XAUUSD possible pullback up to @1360. Open sell limit @ 1410-14Gold made a BIG move yesterday at Asian Session, that makes it move 300 pips in less than 3 minutes. I researched that the reason behind of this is the delayed Trade War talks of the United States and China. Now the Investors are shifting their equity into the safe haven assets just like Japanese Yen and one of it is Gold.
In long term XAUUSD is being seen as bullish and it might go up to 1600.
I would advise to open a sell limit at around 1410 and put a stop loss 100 pips on that area, and target around 400 pips that would make your ratio 4:1
Always use a proper risk management and always set your leverage low so that you wont get tempted to open another trade. Use STOP LOSS, it is not there just for display, it makes you save your account getting burned and being available to trade in the future.
Long Gold!Gold is breaking resistance levels in most indices.
With the probability of the fed cutting rates at almost 90%, Gold seems like a great option for a medium-term investment.
USDCHF LONG Swing Trade Executed. Price Aiming For 1.03000!Have a look at the attached link below for the full analysis behind this trade setup
ENTRY LEVEL: AT AROUND 1.01300
STOP LOSS: 0.99600
TAKE PROFIT: 1.03000
RR: 1:1
SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WILL UPDATE THEM IN THIS THREAD. CHEERS
EURCHF SHORT Swing Trade Executed! Price Aiming For 1.11700Have a look at the attached link below for the full analysis behind this trade setup:
INSTANT ENTRY: AT AROUND 1.13200 LEVEL
STOP LOSS: 1.14700
TAKE PROFIT: 1.11700
RR: 1:1
shall there be any updates i will update them here below.
Mexican peso holiday & central banks are preparing for the worstThe week started quite well for the financial markets and with a huge relief for Mexico in particular. The point is that Trump decided not to impose 5% tariff on Mexican goods. The Mexican peso showed maximum growth over the past year. The Canadian dollar is below 1.33. Therefore a sharp decline in gold and other safe-haven assets against this background can be considered logical and logical.
However, we would not advise relaxing. In fact, this is just one of the episodes. But in general, the picture continues to be rather precarious. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, heightened market optimism is a mistake of investors. Global economic data is likely to begin to deteriorate. Accordingly, Morgan Stanley recommends selling USDJPY with a target of 105. We will continue to look for points to buy gold and Japanese yen on the intraday basis.
About the Japanese yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, contributed a lot to yen sales in the foreign exchange market. He said that the Central Bank is ready to expand the list of monetary incentives, if it is necessary. Panicking and selling off the yen is not worth it yet. Well, the Bank of Japan is satisfied with the content of the monetary policy and the general state of the country's economy.
Nevertheless, the general trend in the behavior of the leading central banks is pretty clear: all as one declare their readiness to act in response to trade war escalation. Recall, earlier "pigeon" comments were seen by the Fed and the ECB. And the Reserve Bank of Australia, so generally, lowered the rate last week.
We would like to note rather weak data from the UK in particular GDP dropped by 0.4% m / m, in April ( the analysts had been expected a declining by 0.1% m / m).In addition, industrial production collapsed by by -2.7% m / m (experts predicted a decline of -1.0% m / m). It is not surprising that the pound was under downward pressure yesterday. Today we are waiting for data on the UK labor market, which might finish the pound. Well, we will see.
Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, oil sales and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold.
JXY Downtrend"The U.S. stands out for its positive returns. Ten-year Treasury rates were at 2.16% on May 31, vs. -0.09% for Japan and -0.20% for German equivalents. The dollar has been taking away the mantle of safe haven thanks to interest-rate differentials.
The flows into yen as a safe haven remains, but for us to see it go down to, say, 105, you’ll need to see a major geopolitical shock happen."
Quoted from Jane Foley, head of currency strategy at Rabobank International in London.
