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Safehaven

JPY or CHF: Which safe haven FX To Trade During Market Turmoil ? The JPY and the CHF are both well-established safe havens and from time to time other currencies can exhibit safe haven behaviors. In 2017, this was periodically true of the EUR. That said, this year’s return of concerns about Italy’s fiscal restraint is a reminder that the Eurozone’s crisis years are too recent to allow the single currency to adopt the mantle of a true safe haven, despite the region’s huge current account surplus. The USD has only a flirtatious claim as a store of value. Its huge liquidity, importance as a reserve currency and the role of Treasury paper as a safe haven asset means that the USD has strong safe haven links. However, the US’s budget and current account deficits significantly undermine any claim that the USD is a true safe haven currency. Since the SNB maintains the use of FX intervention as a policy tool, it is reasonable to assume that the JPY may be the safe haven currency preferred by many investors. While the CHF may be more reactive to news from Russia and Europe, the JPY can appear more sensitive to news stemming from Asia. The JPY responded to worrying news regarding N. Korea’s nuclear capability in the early part of 2017. Interestingly, the JPY seemed to become less sensitive to N. Korean related news into last summer, despite the worsening tone of the headlines. We have linked this to the broad strengthening of overall risk appetite during 2017 as world growth beat expectations. The role of the JPY and CHF as safe havens has long since provided a problem for both the SNB and the BoJ, since unwanted currency strength has contributed to deflationary pressures. Risk appetite rather than interest rate differentials will continue to be overriding driver of the value of safe haven currencies in times of heightened market tensions. Broadly speaking, due to the risk of FX intervention from the SNB the JPY is favored over the CHF as a safe haven currency.
by FX618Analysis
Will The AUDCHF Break The Neckline of H & S ?This symbol features the Australian Dollar - Swiss Franc cross pair. While less popular than the AUDJPY cross, the AUD/CHF has similar characteristics in that it can be used as a carry trade. Some may also view this pair as a reflection of risk sentiment due to the risk-on nature of the Australian currency and the safe-haven characteristics of the Swiss franc. Source of above information: www.dailyfx.com There is no doubt that the head and shoulders pattern have been forming on multiple currency pairs especially the EUR pairs, more specifically the EURUSD. Today the long standing Head And Shoulders pattern on the EURUSD should be completed as the bears are on rampage!. If the EURUSD tumbles in the coming weeks to record LOWS then we should see multiple safehaven FX pairs most notably the CHF and JPY gain momentum as well. This has everything to do with the currency correlation when trading. Many traders are watching the EURUSD pair at the moment and a potential break to the downside is almost imminent in the coming week and therefore we take a look at the AUDCHF pair in this part of the analysis!. It has rejected the crucial resistance level on multiple occasions (see the blue lines) and its looking to head down. Currently the one of the most prominent confluence factor to support this fact is the formation of the H & S Pattern that is on the verge of completion and the only thing holding is the break of the neckline! If and only if the weekly candle closes below this neckline (the red line on the chart) we will potentially see the pressure build up to the downside in the coming weeks. Personally for the entry criteria to be met, i would want the weekly candle to close below the neckline and the support level, followed by a slight retracement on the daily charts or 4 hours charts before i can enter this trade SHORT. The TP target is also favorable as the next crucial support level lies far down at 0.7000 psychological level! It remains to be seen what happens in the coming week and this pair is highly dependent the EURUSD head and shoulders pattern. Personally the EURUSD is a great trade to take but i am already LONG on the USD (NZDUSD). See the related link. Due to this AUDCHF represents the best opportunity to trade if you already have an open position on the USD, Stay tuned for any updates and signals. Follow me for more indepth analysis and signals. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
7
Will CADCHF Resume It's Downtrend By Breaking The Wedge ? This is the forex quote for the Canadian Dollar against the Swiss Franc. In this quote, the value of one CAD (the 'base currency') is quoted in terms of CHF (the 'counter currency'). The Canadian Dollar is often considered to be a 'commodity currency' because Canada exports a large amount of natural resources, notably oil. In practical terms, this makes it sensitive to the ebb and flow of trends in investors' overall outlook on global economic growth. Meanwhile, Switzerland's has a long-standing history as a safe haven and harbor for foreigners looking to house their wealth in a private banking system. As a pairing embodying the relationship between a growth-linked, higher yielding currency and a safety-geared, low yielding one, CAD/CHF is a notable carry trade vehicle. SOURCE OF ABOVE: www.dailyfx.com The CADCHF is forming an ascending wedge on the daily TF as evident on the main chart. For this formation to be broken the daily candle must break and close below the wedge. To add to this the price must also break the EMA 50 in the process and close below it. Once this is completed the price will potentially look to target the ascending trend line below the wedge (see the main chart) Furthermore, looking at the weekly chart for this pair the price has been ranging for quite some time now and is potentially looking to test the lower part of the rectangle (range). As said before the CAD pair is highly affected by OIL prices since its a commodity currency and on the other the CHF is a safe haven pair. All in all its a high probability trade and i will wait for the criteria to be met before i decide to execute on this pair. I will keep you updated on any signals should the criteria meet. Keep in my there are other CAD PAIRS forming some possible trade scenarios and i would like to remind you traders i do not risk trading the same currency even if its different pair. i will see what currency pair would give me the best RISK TO REWARD and the least path of resistance or support before i execute. FOLLOW ME IF YOU LIKE THE ANALYSIS. stay tuned for any signals cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
CHFJPY LONG TERM CHANNEL ON THE BRINK OF A VIOLATION! Observing the 4 HOURS charts on this pair it seems the price is confined in a long term channel which also reflects on the daily charts. A break of channel both on the daily and 4 hour charts would confirm a possible move to the downside targeting the crucial support of 107.800 level! To add to the list of the confluence factors on the daily time frame the RSI is forming a bearish divergence indicating the bulls are running out of steam. The weekly chart image shows the price confined in a long term triangle, which might act as a possible route to where the price is headed. If the criteria are met i will update any signals related to this pair here. Follow me if you like my analysis and for signals. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Is the crash the beginning of the safety haven?It is considered a relative drop in gold caused by the rise in the dollar. The increase in the Dow Jones index and Spx500 has resulted in relatively low demand for safe haven. Let's look at the chart! First, the market made a strong break through the black clouds. Right now, the gold market is in its bottom line, and the market is expected to be resisted by the small cloud, which is a sub-trends after a slight rebound. It is a long time to sell right now. Wait for the market to rebound. When forming a new down-wave, it would be better to safely sell at high points to maximize profits. Don't forget that too hasty chase and trade results in a loss! If you helped me with this information, More information is available at www.allaboutforex.net
TVC:GOLDShort
by Allaboutforex
1
XAU/USD (GOLD) "A possible/probable safe haven for your money"..Hi guys! Hope you are all doing well, having profitable trades and hold focus while most markets are crashing. (Crypto, Stocks,..) This post for today is one that I think is very important for you guys to know.. We know that each and everyone who's investing in all kinds of markets is doing it to make profits, go home, live well and enjoy their gains,.. Unfortunatly, that is not the case for everyone, everytime... Well,... what my point is here is that in times of bear markets you want to find your safe haven to store your portfolio. And guess what? It's gold! 1. Gold has been here for centuries, never failed, and is undervalued! (silver is even more undervalued, but that's for another post). 2. iGold (XAU) is in an uptrend. 3. stocks are failing (which I will post later on). (spx500, dji,...) Conclusion: Stock markets are crashing, and they are going to crash a lot more! All indicators are telling us so. Cryptocurrencies aren't doing well, but gold keeps a nice hold in its ascending wedge. The people who are paying attention, see that there is something big coming, bitcoin is gaining a lot of attention (which makes people think about other possibilities to hold "money" or "value" in life. FIAT currencies (and specially USD) are failing due to that fact. Gold, silver and some cryptocurrencies are what you need to consider buying right now because 2018 might be strike nr3 after the crash of 2000 and 2008! A next generation financial crisis is aproaching us and if it hits, it will hit hard! This MIGHT be followed by a switch in the monetary system as we know it as of today... consider it, think about it. SO..! For all people who hold and like to hold some more GOLD: If we don't break ascending support (next few weeks), you have yourself a nice bargain :). Trade: ( for those who trading futures) Buy @ USD $1400 SL @ 1330 TP @ 1750 the 2.5 year downtrend channel was broken and we are now aproachng the end of an ascending wedge pattern. This was something we wanted to share with you guys, please tell us if you don't agree and let us know what you think.. Thanks! Profitable regard, Perspect
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Perspect
USD/JPY longGiven that Japan is stagflant economy, YEN is safe haven currency so its driven mainly by risk on/risk off sentiments on global markets In case that we’ll see any further escalation of North Korean tensions, we can expect instant downmove – any more serious comments from North Korean officials could trigger that (Markets are already quite used to NK hostile rhetorics towards US/Japan and South Korea), however I dont expect any further military escalation since none of involved country leaders want to be remembered as ones who "stared war" or did not prevent it. Recently we’ve found resistance at monthly pivotal R2 and broke through so depending on fundamental circumstances we’ll continue up given Yellen hawkishnes on US side + we have more US tax reform detail coming up later today at 21:00 CET and I expect all of that pricing in throughout this day. Also note that we have 2 FED speakers today who I believe will reiterate neutral/hawkish stance Currently I expect next significant resistance at R3 near our -27% retracement and TP As always stay tuned to bloomberg, twitter or what have you, since things might change very quickly - as always be safe and protect your capital. Regardless of which side you trade on, have fun!
Long
by Chuck-Norris