USDJPY SWING ENTRYPossible usdjpy swing entry
USDJPY is sitting on weekly trendline which it has respected in the past and bounced off a couple times I'm expecting a rejection of the trendline and further bearish movement
Safehaven
USD/JPY longGiven that Japan is stagflant economy, YEN is safe haven currency so its driven mainly by risk on/risk off sentiments on global markets
In case that we’ll see any further escalation of North Korean tensions, we can expect instant downmove – any more serious comments from North Korean officials could trigger that (Markets are already quite used to NK hostile rhetorics towards US/Japan and South Korea), however I dont expect any further military escalation since none of involved country leaders want to be remembered as ones who "stared war" or did not prevent it.
Recently we’ve found resistance at monthly pivotal R2 and broke through so depending on fundamental circumstances we’ll continue up given Yellen hawkishnes on US side + we have more US tax reform detail coming up later today at 21:00 CET and I expect all of that pricing in throughout this day.
Also note that we have 2 FED speakers today who I believe will reiterate neutral/hawkish stance
Currently I expect next significant resistance at R3 near our -27% retracement and TP
As always stay tuned to bloomberg, twitter or what have you, since things might change very quickly - as always be safe and protect your capital.
Regardless of which side you trade on, have fun!
CADCHF, Buy IdeasCADCHF has broken downtrend that started on 02/27/17 and was confirmed on 04/13/17
Bottoms formed on 06/02 and 06/07 creating a double bottom, downtrend was broken and is currently testing for support.
Three potential take profits, looking for a buy around .71750 with a stop loss at .71500.
TP1: .73550
TP2: .75700
TP3: .77000
Check out profile for update and news!!!
North Korea - Risk Off trade over weekendTomorrow is North Korea national day and whether or not they will launch another missile is unknown (and if they do Trump will do something just about as stupid). I'm betting there will be some retreat to Risk off asset such as the JPY.
The tricky thing is which pair to pick. I've already had exposure to NZD short and CAD long. My rationale is if there is something wrong with the world, real asset or safe haven asset appreciate, this applies to NZD, AUD, CAD and JPY, not so much for the fiat currencies of EUR or USD. The ECB and Fed are quite Dovish in my opinion, I really can't figure out who's more determined than whom yet though.
My plan is to split the bet into Short EURJPY and USDJPY at the same time. EUR has no major news next week why USD has CPI on Wednesday so I may not be able to hold that part as far. On the retail sentiment, JPY is being sold and I can't be more happy to go Long.
Gold still looks cheap, when we look at it this wayBeware the appearance of the wave lengths as this is a semi-log chart.
As far as historic data allows it, I can count the rallies as impulsive. From the bottom of the chart (251.90) up to I (1920.70), there are $ 1’668.80. Multiplying this by 1.618 ($ 2’700), and adding them to the bottom of II (1046.33), we find a minimum target for wave III at $ 3’746 !
On a shorter term basis let’s do the same to find the minimum target for wave 3. As wave 1 equals $ 328.71, multiplying this by 1.618 (531.85) and adding them to the bottom of wave 2 (1122.57), we find 1’654.
Buying now at 1’346 with stop/loss at 1’269 (below top of what I consider to be a wave i) with target at 3’690. Once 1’654 is reached, trail the stop/loss from 1’269 to breakeven (the top of wave 1 at 1’375 shouldn’t be overlapped by the future wave 4).
Initial reward/risk ratio close to 31. Once the stop/loss is trailed there will be no risk of loss anymore.
So people still not long Gold don’t have missed the train yet, there is still plenty of potential upwards I think. Better to buy it physically and vs USD though as safe haven. As the proverb says: invest 10 % of your portfolio and hope it goes down. Of course it is not real to consider selling on stop/loss a physical position, only because of the spread, so start with CFDs.
If the following levels are taken out, my scenario will take shape: 1’532 and 1’921.
Start switching your CFDs for physical as this would not be a good sign for the economy.
USDJPY SHORT TRADE Currently short USDJPY as the risk off scenario looks to continue with geo-political tensions growing between the US and North Korea we are seeing safe haven currencies and commodities appreciating.
Watching the 1HR charts we can see that price has respected the dynamic resistance of the 20EMA and created a C2 close off a 61.8 Fibonacci retracement.
Safe haven still lives1307 looks like a good level to get back in, if you're thinking about getting in to a long position. Ok, I admit, some of the needs for safe haven has gone away, but some of the issues are still unresolved. The Gold should remain supported.
EURCHF tank the cross EURCHF will start to go down
EUR are absolutely overbought and the korea situation may lead many people to buy CHF as safe haven asset.
i think that this cross will go down
Japanese Yen (USDJPY) May 2017 OverviewWith geopolitical tension rising in the Asia, the Japanese Yen benefitted from its safe haven status in the second half of May, gaining around 400 pips in one week.
The Japanese large positive external balance as well as huge international investments have driven yen’s demand even further, which mark the strength at 110 against the dollar – down from May’s high of above 114.
Although the country has defeated the long-year deflation, real price gains still remain weak at 0.2% year on year – far below the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%.
In the long term perspective, we still expect the Yen to weaken, and potentially driving the USDJPY towards the high around 120.
USDJPY Epic Descending Triangle Breakdown ImminentOANDA:USDJPY has consolidated for a few days already and failed to retake the 112 level.
With a series of lower highs, the supply resistance level is slowly going down to meet with the Weekly 200MA support.
Its possible it might find support at the Daily 200MA level as it was able bounce off it from the previous downleg.
In my opinion it might still test the 111 level one more time before the support finally breaks.
Entry: 111.044
Profit: 108.215
Stop: 111.325
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
GOLDGold test crucial fibo level.
If it menage to break we can expect 1200 in coming days.
If not, if it find support here above 1230 you can enter long positions and expect again bullish trend.
SL for long be should under 1230, and if price break this level for short positions SL above fibo levels.
The market senses a Fed hike is coming in June and gold is bearing the brunt of the bad news.
Also we should consider French elections for weekend.
NZDUSD and a Confluence of SupportsOANDA:NZDUSD looks like its forming a nice floor where a lot of key technical levels and indicators are at.
4H Moving Averages:
OANDA:NZDUSD was able to get above key moving averages in the 4H timeframe and it has held well so far.
Weekly Higher Lows Trendline:
Even after some attempts of breaking the trendline it has held so far and looks like it was able to get back above it
The Daily 200MA should provide decent resistance but its also possible that it might still break through it to test the 0.73 level once more
Entry: 0.70237
Stop: 0.697
Profit: (tp1) 0.7137 (tp2) 0.73368
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
This WeeK: Uncertainty => Yen Bullishness $JPY $JXYHey traders, I expect this currency to continue north. There's too much uncertainty with Trump's follow-through on policies, North Korean nuclear testing, Syria and ISIS. I like this one long. We also have some technical lining up as shown on the chart.
USDJPY safe-haven play on increased geopolitical risksChart of the day: USDJPY. Safe-haven buying kicked in heavily Tuesday, also giving a boost to other local Asian currencies. Geopolitical unrest levels have risen substantially over the last few weeks: Syria, N.Korea, Russia and this has led to a move to buy those 'safer' assets. Gold, Yen all should benefit from the uncertainty.
On the Kagi chart the Yen is now back to mid 2016 numbers, breaking out of the bands, but playing on a key Fibonacci 38.2% line at just under 110, which could offer some resistance. A confirmed break here could see the price noise around 106 targeted, then to the lows just under 100. Any rebound in the shorter term has 112 and 115 in its sights.
Reminder: Gold investment idea for the year 2017Gold could be a great very long-term investment entry to hedge against a crash of the "S&P 500" in the year 2017 and beyond, after the election of Donald Trump.
Here is my original "Gold" chart I made 5 months ago. The price of my lower entry arrow has been reached, plus the time window has been reached, which is why I publish this reminder. This chart is posted as neutral, because there is not yet enough price movement to the upside to fully confirm this entry signal, plus the time window has just started. So there could be one more dip to the downside before the actual larger rally starts later in 2017.
Ideas supporting Gold as safe haven investment in 2017 and beyond:
The new US president sleeps only 3-4 hours per night according to his butler and according to his 2004 book "Trump: Think Like a Billionaire". This lack of sleep might cause chronic sleep deprivation, with symptoms including sudden mood swings and emotional imbalance. That could lead to more stock market volatility in the future, which would benefit safe haven assets like "Gold".
Trump has appointed more military generals in his cabinet than any president since World War II. This might lead to a foreign policy that is less inspired by civilian ideas and more heavily dependent on U.S. military.
In addition the political risks around the world are increasing, as measured by the “Economic Policy Uncertainty” (EPU) index, which scans the entire spectrum of news sources each day for words indicating worry, doubt, and contingency about policy direction. This index has negative correlation with equity prices and a high positive correlation with stock market volatility. In most economies around the world, the EPU index is currently surging. A GDP-weighted average of the EPU indexes from 17 countries has recently hit unprecedented heights—higher than 9/11, Gulf War II, the GFC, or the Euro-Crisis of 2011.
Sources:
Will Policy Uncertainty Hammer Markets? The “Economic Policy Uncertainty” (EPU) index
www.forbes.com
Trump's butler for almost 30 years
www.bbc.com
Trump's potential chronic sleep deprivation
www.huffingtonpost.com
Trump's admiration of generals
www.politico.com
Short GBPJPY going into 2017After the rally in both USD and big US indices it's time for profit taking and rebalancing portfolio's going into the new year. This will pull indices down and make the yen as a safehaven benefit. I Believe this is a good shorting position since it's trapped in a range for now.
Silver shortsAs Trumps victory is now being digested, markets appear to be warming to him , however still early days and Obama is still president. My projection is very bearish on silver as we see investors rushing towards stocks and bonds in the next few weeks , believing the Economy will be ok. Or is it?? Shorts in play for time being.
Dollar Strong Against YenIt seems like the Dollar is a better safe haven play for investors. This is largely in anticipation of a rate hike towards the end of the year. In the near term the 106.00 level works for me.
LONG GOLD XAUUSD: RISK-OFF ASSETS TRADING CHEAP ON US STOCK DIPGold Positioning - Buy @ Market; 1350TP1 1370TP2 - 1 lot (small) and add double every daily close lower - 1lot, 2lots tomorrow, 4lots the next day:
1. Risk sentiment looks to be turning south, particularly in US equities which have seen monthly lows which is consistent with the broad equity valuation correction lower that i have been expecting for the past few weeks.
- However the highly correlated safe haven assets look to be showing some divergence/ value by also trading lower. Given im a risk-sentiment bear, I back this view with short SPX and long Gold/ YEN.
2. Also Fed unlikely to hike means USD demand is likely to be parred which puts less pressure on gold, but either way, a hike increases risk-off and will drive gold/ haven demand so it is a win win situation.
3. Statistically gold is also a long after trading lower 5 days in a row which for the past 16yrs of data is a 1/100 chance of having a bullish day for the next day (today). Also on the weekly we are 1.3 deviations lower, with the monthly and quaterly at 0.9sd and 0.7sd lower.
4. Risk here looks to be to the 1300 pivot with topside at 1350, 1370 and 1400 - i personally feel we can see gold bid to 1370 on a SPX to 2000 backdrop, a fed hike would have my bets moving SPX well through 2000.
USD/JPY Friendly breakdown, scenarios and entry strategyA breakdown of USD/JPY with potential scenarios for both the up and downside.
The blue box indicates the criteria for entry with 4/5 requirements needing to be met before entry, this method cuts losses and gives a clear structured way to enter trades that can be back-tested.
Good luck!
