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Safehaven

Gold - Take A Break? 🥇Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. After rejecting our 1800 support zone , Gold has been bullish making higher highs and higher lows. However, it is approaching the upper brown trendline that I consider an overbought area. Moreover, the 2075 is the current all-time-high. 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper brown trendline. (acting as non-horizontal resistance) As per my trading style: As XAUUSD is sitting around the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) Of course, UNLESS Gold breaks above 2075 in an aggressive manner, then the bulls will remain in control and we will expect an extended bullish movement. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
10
Five Reasons and Six Ways to Invest in Gold"Gold is money. Everything else is credit.", said John Pierpont Morgan. When borrowers default, markets collapse and banks run into crisis, gold prices skyrocket. Gold is trading at a 12-month high on March 18th. Gold has been valued for thousands of years. Gold has unique properties. It has been enchanting women and men since humans set foot on the planet. Polycrisis. That aptly describes the current times. The US regional bank crisis haunts markets. Credit Suisse - the bank to the wealthiest was so frail that Swiss National Bank had to step in to provide liquidity backstop. Regulators worked over the weekend to broker an acquisition by UBS to prevent a banking crisis from spreading. Inflation is raging hot at levels unseen in 40+ years. Compounding Chair Powell's quagmire, the US Fed has been forced to switch from QT to QE by providing support to its regional banks from collapsing under crisis of confidence. Geo-politics remains tricky. In times of crisis, investors seek flight to safety. Safest of all assets since civilisation began has been gold. This educational piece provides an overview of (a) physical gold market dynamics, (b) largest holders of gold reserves, and (c) gold price behaviour against other asset classes. It also describes five primary reasons for investing in gold, contrasts six methods of doing so, and highlights the downsides of holding gold. PHYSICAL GOLD DYNAMICS Gold performs multiple functions. It is a currency to some. Store of wealth to others. It is an industrial metal used in consumer electronics. The rich love gold in clothing and food. A bird's eye view of physical gold can be summarily described in three parts: 1. Consumers : Gold is used in consumer electronics due to its high conductivity and low corrosive properties. Gold used as industrial metal represents 6%-8% of total demand. Unsurprisingly, >50% of global gold demand is for jewellery. Jewellery is a multi-tasker. It meets aesthetic goals, serves as a status symbol while also being a form of investment. 2. Gold Reserves : Central banks hold gold as reserves. They are the most significant holders of gold. The haven nature of gold compels central banks to increase holdings during economic uncertainty, high inflation, or currency devaluation. Central Banks added >382 tonnes to their reserves in 2022. 3. Producers : Gold mining is a cyclical industry. Mining output has been in decline over the past decade as major gold producers shift to mining minerals and other metals like copper with the proliferation of lithium-ion batteries in EVs. Gold mining took a huge output hit during the pandemic and may not recover any time soon as capital expenditure into new gold mines is limited. GOLD RESERVES - THE MOVERS AND SHAKERS According to the World Gold Council, as of end 2022, central banks in Western European (11.8k tons) have the largest gold reserves followed by North Americans (8.1k tons), Central & Eastern Europeans (3.5k tons), and East Asians (3.4k tons). Last year, central banks of Turkey, China, Egypt, Qatar, and Uzbekistan were the largest buyers of gold. FIVE REASONS WHY GOLD SHOULD BE IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS Gold is a resilient store of wealth, provides meaningful portfolio diversification, has limited price volatility, extends benefits of hedge against inflation & currency debasement, and is limited in supply. 1. Resilient Store of Wealth Gold outperforms equities during periods of economic instability. Due to its material properties and scarcity, it can even become more valuable during such periods as investors seek shelter in classic risk-off assets such as gold. 2. Portfolio Diversification Gold can have both positive and negative correlation with other asset classes during different periods. This makes it an attractive addition to a diversified portfolio. 3. Limited Volatility Due to its large market size and diverse supply origins, gold is less volatile than equities and other asset classes making it a safer asset class for investors. 4. Inflation Hedge Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge. Which means that it can maintain its value or appreciate during periods of high inflation due to its scarcity and safety. However, in some cases monetary policy changes like interest rate hikes may make gold a less attractive investment compared to treasury yields during inflationary periods. 5. Limited in supply Gold is a finite resource, that too, one of the rarest precious metals in the world. Moreover, more than 200,000 tonnes of gold have already been dug up. This represents more than half of the total reserves. The gold that is yet to be mined is much more difficult to extract economically. Scarcity creates rarity, which in turn drives the value of the existing gold higher. Many governments, banks, and people also use gold as a long-term investment, which means a huge portion of the gold supply is taken out of circulation, shrinking available supply even more. SIX WAYS OF INVESTING IN GOLD There are multiple ways of investing in gold. Six primary ones are: 1. Physical Gold : Gold can be bought and stored in the form of jewellery or gold bars. Costs of storage, insurance and making charges can be substantial and also inconvenient. Investing in physical gold is not optimal for reasons of poor convenience and higher transaction costs. 2. Gold ETF : Exposure to gold can also be acquired through buying exchange traded funds (ETF) backed by physical gold. There are multiple ETFs that track physical gold prices. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was the pioneer and began trading in 2004. It has an expense ratio of 0.4% and tracks gold bullion prices. GLD holds both physical gold bullion and cash. GLD provides a liquid lower-cost method to buy and hold gold. Gold can be bought and sold during the trading day at market price. Investors must pay heed to taxation as gains from ETFs in some jurisdictions can be treated differently compared to other forms of gold. 3. Gold Futures : CME’s COMEX Gold futures is the world’s most liquid derivatives which enables capital efficient exposure to Gold. With round the clock liquidity, tight bid-ask spread and benefits of a cleared contract, investing through COMEX Gold futures is widely popular. Each lot of COMEX Gold Futures provides exposure to 100 oz of Gold. Enabling affordable access to investors and to facilitate accurate granular hedging, CME also offers Micro Gold Futures. Each lot of Micro Gold contract provides exposure to 10 oz of Gold. 4. Gold Options : CME also offers options on Gold Futures. Gold options is a useful investing and hedging tool. Using options, investors can lock in unlimited upside potential of price moves while limiting the adverse impact of downside price moves. 5. Shares of Gold Producers : Gold mining is an international business. Gold is mined on every continent except Antarctica. Top gold miners include Newmont (USA), Barrick (Canada), Anglogold Ashanti (South Africa), Kinross (Canada), Gold Fields (South Africa), Newcrest (Australia), Agnica Eagle (Canada), Polyus (Russia), Polymetal (Russia), and Harmony (South Africa). As is evident from the chart above, investing in gold miners for exposure to gold is a poor proxy as most of them have underperformed relative to gold prices. Furthermore, FX exposures must be hedged separately for some stocks which trade in emerging markets. In summary, securing gold exposure through miners is not optimal relative to other alternatives. 6. Gold CFDs : CFDs also known as contract for differences allows for synthetic access to the price of spot gold. These CFDs are OTC derivatives contracts which carry non-trivial counterparty risk with investors being exposed to the credit risk of the CFD provider. The table below summarises the merits of various gold investment instruments across key investment attributes. GOLD TOO HAS ITS DOWNSIDES Gold is a non-yielding asset. Shares of profitable companies pay dividends. Holding debt earns interest. Real estate delivers rents. But gold provides zero yield. For every problem, innovation in markets provides a solution. In a future paper, Mint Finance will demonstrate how gold can be transformed into a yield generating asset. Rising interest rates are headwinds to gold. As rates on treasury, bonds and deposits rise, investors rotate their money out of gold and into yield generating assets. Not only is gold non-yielding, but the returns also fade into insignificance relative to gains from innovation. In times of crisis, gold is a great hedge. However, while positioning portfolios for the long term, investors must astutely balance between safety versus growth. GOLD RETURNS IN RELATION TO OTHER ASSET CLASSES 1. US Equities and Emerging Markets Gold outperforms equities during periods of crisis. During equity bull runs, gold underperforms equities. Cumulatively, over the last 20 years, Gold has outperformed Dow Jones, S&P 500, and MSCI Emerging Markets. Only Nasdaq, which represents tech, innovation and growth has surpassed gold returns. 2. Treasuries with 2-Year and 10-Year Maturities Unsurprisingly, when sovereign risks rise and treasury yields fall to zero, gold shines. Between two non-yielding assets, investors prefer to take shelter in gold as a preferred haven. However, when rates rise, investors rotate out of gold and into treasuries. 3. Crude Oil, Copper, and Silver Over the last two decades, Gold has outperformed crude oil, copper, and silver. 4. Dollar Index, Bitcoin and Ethereum While US Dollar and gold are both global reserves, gold has outperformed the Dollar Index which is the value of the USD against a basket of six international currencies. However, relative to bitcoin and ethereum, gold pales into insignificance. Bitcoin is perceived as millennial gold and ethereum is the millennial oil. Both assets have obliterated gold in terms of price returns. 5. Major Currencies Over the last 3 years, as markets emerged out of the pandemic, gold has outperformed all the major currencies. Yen, under the influence of Governor Kuroda’s liberal QE program, has depreciated 63% against gold. Indian Rupee has deflated 47% while Euro and Sterling have shed 38% and 32% against gold. The US Dollar, Chinese Renminbi, and Aussie Dollar have depreciated 31%, 29% and 20% against gold, respectively. Key Takeaways Gold is money. Everything else is credit. Gold glows in crisis. It is a knight in shining armour for investors. Gold is the only asset which exhibits negative correlation. These are times of polycrisis. As investors seek flight to safety from banks even, gold is the safest among the few remaining alternatives. Gold is a resilient store of wealth, offers durable diversification within a portfolio, exhibits much lower volatility relative to equities, and serves as an inflation hedge albeit with less than a perfect record. Clients can invest in gold in multiple ways. Gold futures is the most convenient and optimal among the six alternatives. Gold has its downsides. It is a non-yielding asset and performs dismally against innovation and growth. Except for Nasdaq, bitcoin and ethereum, gold has outperformed currency majors, equity indices, US treasury, and commodities. In a future paper, Mint Finance will explore ways in which gold can be transformed into a yield generating asset. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by mintdotfinance
33
Bitcoin ALREADY is a safe haven!Come back to 2020, 24 February. 4 days have passed since the COVID crash started, the stocks are dropping, countries are announcing closures and quarantines. You have a small wealth built by hard work and time. Now you need to protect your value. You have these options: - SP500 - NASDAQ - Gold - Oil - Apple shares - Bitcoin Now move forward to the present, a lot of things happened. Now is the time to see how your investment is going: How you can see Bitcoin beaten all the assets, even suffering with the most aggresive rate hike never seen by central banks. If we are objetives, we can agree that any other asset that show this performance would be considered a SAFE HAVEN.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Fierillo
Gold Bulls Deny Bearish Continuation and Eye $2400 TargetMy previous read of Gold's wavemap has been proven invalid through price action. Any chance of a drop to the levels of 17xx have been very likely denied considering today's price action. With the removal of certain possibilities, only a couple similar options remain on the table. With anticipated support to come near the levels of $1830-$1870, I expect Bulls to continue their dominance up to the heights of $2300-$2400 before any macro bear sighting is found. Congrats to all buyers and good luck in the future to all others.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
Gold's Goal: New All-Time High / $2K+ in 2024My expectations for Gold are coming along just as expected for the most part, barring a few micro level invalidations. Last Fall, I expected Gold to dip below the level of $1680 before finding support on its run to a new all-time high. Even during this time, I predicted as can be seen at the top of the following chart (if you drag it down) that the new all-time high would land near $2415 . That drop has been accomplished and the pump is very well underway . My most recent macro prediction suggested that Gold would retest the lows of $1700 before pushing up towards $2415 . Due to the height of Wave 3 extending more than expected, I am sharing this updated markup, though the target range has only slightly been adjusted (by less than $40). Analysis is not always a set and forget it type of task. As good analysts, we have to balance being both proactive and reactive. When the proactive output finds invalidation, this is when we adjust and fine tune our expectations. The principles of Elliott Wave Theory makes this a repeatable and very logical process but only when applied correctly. Many have given up on discovering validity in this theory. I have not and am determined to master it at the highest level(s). Thanks to all naysayers and doubters of what I do. You have absolutely 0 chance to penetrate my judgement and you only drive me to become the best. I sincerely appreciate you! For all others, be sure to hit the 🚀 button and leave your comments below. More importantly, stay safe and don't drown!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DigitalSurfTrading
Alot of evidence to be Fearful. [ 1.05479 ] 🔊With price action evidence showing us of great sell pressure on risk assets. With Evidence of a renewed bullish strength on safe haven assets.. With evidence of institutions exhibiting bouts of worry and uncertainty. When the Enemy flinches, you have already won the battle. I like buying safe haven assets during this time of higher than average inflation. The Financial system showing signs of weakness. Everyone doubting crypto. Countries and Groups releasing plans of creating a digital currency. Creating their own currency. I struggle to be optimistic on the economy. GDP and production seeing sacrificed at the alter , firsthand. Anyways enough said, looking lower here.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
2
GOLD - Potential Buy Setup - Analysis #2/50Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. on WEEKLY: Left Chart GOLD is retesting a support zone and round number 1800. So we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H1: Right Chart For the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close above the last major high in red. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, GOLD can still trade lower till the 1800 support or even break it downward. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
3
GOLD : What Drives the Price of Gold ?OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is highly sought after, not just for investment purposes and to make jewelry but also for use in the manufacturing of certain electronic and medical devices. As of February 2023, the price of gold was more than $1,870 an ounce. While down around $100 from a high posted in April 2022, it is still up considerably from levels under $100 seen 50 years ago. But what factors drive the price of this precious metal higher over time ? KEY TAKEAWAYS 1 Investors have long been enamored by gold, and the price of the metal has increased substantially over the past 50 years. 2 Not only does gold retain additional value, but supply and demand have a huge impact on the price of gold—especially demand from large ETFs. 3 Government vaults and central banks comprise one important source of demand for gold. 4 Gold sometimes moves opposite to the U.S. dollar because the metal is dollar-denominated, making it a hedge against inflation. 5 Supplies of gold are primarily driven by mining production. Conclusion : Gold Is a high Value Asset , Which Can be Hedge Against Growing Inflation.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by INVESTRONE
GOLD - Shift In Momentum In Action! 🥇Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. on WEEKLY: Left Chart GOLD is approaching a support zone and round number 1800. So we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H4: Right Chart XAUUSD is bearish from a short-term perspective trading inside the falling red channel. 🏹 Trigger => for the bulls to take over, we need a new swing high to form around the upper red trendline and then a break above it. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, GOLD can still trade lower till the 1800 support or even break it downward. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
26
GOLD - Wait For The Bulls!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. on WEEKLY: Left Chart GOLD is approaching a support zone and round number 1800. So we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H1: Right Chart XAUUSD is bearish from a short-term perspective trading inside the falling red channel. 🏹 Trigger => for the bulls to take over, we need a new swing high to form around the upper red trendline and then a break above it. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, GOLD can still trade lower till the 1800 support. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
13
Where are stocks going?I am presenting the difference between SPX (top pane) and SPX/major safe heavens (middle pane; spread graph). The pane below portrays the correlation coefficient (CC) in rsi values between the main spread graph and traditional safe heavens. Skip to the last paragraph for my forecast speculation if you are familiar with advanced spread graphs! This graph aims to measure the true nominal & intrinsic value of the U.S.'s largest equity indices (Nasdaq and S&P 500) by pinning their value against historic prices of safer alternative investment instruments, to account for capital outflows to other assets (not just USD or other fiat). CC - peaks in correlation imply trend reversals, specifically indicating the beginning of capital outflow from safe heavens to equities (and vice versa). Combining this indicator with the RSI (white line) of the spread graph may suggest the potential direction of capital flows. Forecast: Bearish signs: break-out of the current interest rate trend (figure below), last decade's heavy use of Quantitative Easing (QE), wars, repetitive waves of Covid, new world order (progressive decline in the importance of western currencies and stock exchanges) Bullish signs: recent unexpected strength from bulls, successful monetary policies against inflation, persistent adaptation of green & sustainability functioning (in comparison to the world), overall extremely oversold technical indicators Figure 1: The CC of interest rates movements with safe heavens indicates a potential direction for equities in general, which matches with the main spread graph (all shown by arrow paths). These predictions align with the outcome of the spread graph's 2004 aggressive interest rate hikes. In case you would like to utilise the spread graph formula: SP:SPX*TVC:IXIC/(TVC:DXY*10000000000000/FRED:M2SL*NASDAQ:XAU*(SP:SPGSCI-NASDAQ:XAU)/10/(TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+2)) otherwise, zoom out Thanks for your time!
SP:SPXShort
by Sanzhar_m
4
BTC accumulation phase spring or a massive bear rally ?Hello, It will be a quick one as the chart says it all. Basically, I think the current setup looks a lot similar to the price action we saw at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2018. 1. BTC made three consecutive lower lows on the 1-week chart, consolidated for a bit then made a new low which was the final one. We saw the same think happening the 15 months. 2. The RSI hit an oversold area around the same level as the one from 2018 while also printing a bullish divergence for the first time ever for BTC (or at least I could not find any older). 3. Volumes increased above the average between the 3rd and 4rd low on both occasions. 4. The price of BTC hit the long-term diagonal support and used it to rebound on both occasions. 5. BTC broke above the 21-period EMA with a solid green candle back then and now. The time of the green candle that broke above the short-term EMA found the RSI in the exact same state and place on its chart as back in 2019 I think it is quite possible we see a significant rally at least up to the first downtrend correction near $46,800 before a significant pullback. This will be in line with the 2018/2019 rally, also relatively similar in terms of percentage growth. Such a move will be normal in the state of disbelief, but it does not exclude a new low afterwards just like it was the case back in 2019/2020. So the "recession" and "long bear market" scenarios can still come to live. Let me know what you think in the comments
Long
by FutureBlockchain
3
GOLD - Trend-Following Buy Setup!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. 🗒 GOLD has been overall bullish trading inside the blue rising broadening wedge pattern. Moreover, the 1900.0 level is a strong support and round number. 📌 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support zone and lower trendline in blue acting as a non-horizontal support. 📉 As per my trading style: As GOLD approaches the lower purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
10