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Safehaven

Gold Valtility Consolidates FurtherGold continues to consolidate in the mid 1800's. We have met strong resistance from a cluster of levels beginning at 1851, with strong resistance from the upper most of these at 1865. Earlierthis month, 1876 proved to be a hard upper bound, and we expect this to hold as a ceiling even if more momentum comes through. From below 1836 and 1826 should hold as a floor for now. Volatility has consolidated notably, suggesting that we may continue to range and establish value in this broad price.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Bonds Stabilize at LowsBonds have found support just above our level at 117'19. We appear to be forming a bear wedge, but the Kovach OBV is flat, suggesting we may range at current levels. After the precipitous decline from 121'00, it is likely that we will establish value in a sideways correction or even a relief rally, before another selloff. If we break down further, then 117'08 is the next level where we should anticipate support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 116'20. A relief rally could take us as high as 119'01.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
US2Y Treasury Yield vs Gold The correlation between the 2Y & gold indicates that when the US2Y peaks, there is a US recession & gold rallies to new highs subsequently after. ** 1 = Peak in US2Y ( 1989 ) did not see a rally in gold because gold was depegged from the USD in the mid 1970's. 2 = Peak in US2Y ( 2000 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession. 3 = Peak in US2Y ( 2007 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession. 4 = Peak in US2Y ( 2020 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession. Speculation 5? = Do we see a continuation of the opposite correlation between the US2Y & Gold when the US2Y peaks? I believe so. However, I see two scenarios for gold if & when the US2Y peaks. Scenario #1: Gold rallies to new highs after the peak in yields Scenario #2 ( Base Case ): After peak in US2Y, Gold rallies to tests previous high & fails to make new highs.
TVC:US10YLong
by brandonmattis
Gold Rejects HighsGold broke through our upper bound at 1865. We had noted the strong technical resistance at this level, confirmed by multiple red triangles over the latter half of May. But as predicted, gold hit our profit target of 1876. We are seeing immediate resistance here, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV spiked up hard with the rally, but has immediately slumped over, suggesting that we may reject 1876 or range between this level and 1865. If we are able to break out further, there is a vacuum zone to 1895.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
DXY USD Index : Greatest dive of USD on the way? 23.5Friday & today we can clearly see recovery of metals & crypto -But not stocks. Meaning, inflation hedging instruments are on the rise while the USD is diving. Makes a lot of sense. What makes much less sense is the rally of USD between March to last week, the last 9-10 weeks. It was pushed by rate hike news and overall panic/investment liquidation. But this is obviously a very temporary phase. What happens when the dust settles? Investment will be resumed. Where will the money go? Where every news article you see daily suggests. Inflation hedging instruments. Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.. Now let's look at the technicals : 1) Trend-line since the beginning of March 2022 rally is broken down. Suggesting immediate down-trend in potential. 2) Head & Shoulder pattern with a 102.20 neck-line is suggesting a possible bounce as retest of the trend-line breakout at around 103. If no bounce up from neck-line happens and it continues lower - The next target is likely to be 101.20 - 100.80 very quickly and continued escalation up of metals and crypto. 3) 103.80-104.50 was key horizontal resistance of many, many years. It makes a lot of sense that it would stretch up to test it and would settle for highest point. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found idea useful, please like and follow - It would mean a lot to me :) I'm here to answer any and all questions and comments , don't hesitate to ask. I hope you are doing well with your trading and encourage you to be cautious and do your own research when trading. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXYShort
by Exactus
4
Gold Meets Resistance in the Mid $1800'sGold has found support exactly at $1836, one of our levels. We noted in previous reports that gold should find support at $1836 or $1826. From here we saw a pivot back to relative highs in the mid $1800's. Recall that we have a dense cluster of levels in the mid $1800's at $1857, $1857 and $1865. These align with relative lows from early May, and are currently acting as a barrier to higher prices. The Kovach OBV is tapering up slightly, but we will need more momentum to hit $1876, our next target. If we reject current levels, $1836 and $1826 should provide support.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Test Higher LevelsBonds have edged up higher, with ZN hitting our target of 121'00. This is a strong psychological and technical level. We are seeing a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV so unless more momentum comes thorugh, anticipate a dip or some ranging between 120'14 and 121'00. If we dip further, 119'23 should provide support. If we are able to break out further, then we have a fairly wide vacuum zone to the next level and target at 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
Gold (XAUUSD): Bulls Love KaratsAs continuation of my previous posts for Gold, this micro wavemap seems to indicate the Gold is due for sideways movement for the next week possibly. 'Sideways' is never truly 100% sideways however. The unappealing, minimal upside producing drag should be a clear sign to investors that Gold is losing is steam in this region. As one can see in my previous post, I believe that after this anticipated fractal pattern plays out, Gold will return to $1800, maybe a few bucks lower. Surf carefully and with precaution if using this itinerary as nothing is ever guaranteed until it happens. At all costs, this wavemap should be considered invalid with a break below the red line. Hypothetically, this could/should be used as a Stop Loss level. Happy Surfing!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DigitalSurfTrading
7
Gold Recovers the $1800'sGold has found support from the upper $1700's, and made a run for the mid $1800's. We smashed through the upper bound of a previous value area at $1815, then passed through several levels after that to reach $1851, which we identified in these reports as a target. We expected resistance here, since this level is a relative low from earlier in May. We are indeed seeing resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to break through, then we will see resistance from several technical levels up to $1876, then there is a vacuum zone to $1895. If we fall from here, $1836 and $1826 should provide support with $1815 a likely floor for now.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Bonds Pick UpBonds have found support and made a run for higher levels. The ten year dipped 119'23 into the 118's, finding support just above our level at 118'04. We then saw a rebound to 120'14, which we have been identifying as the next target after 119'23. It will take some momentum to break this level however, since this is a relative high from back in April. We are already seeing steep resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is gradually trending up, but is a oscillating with the dips, suggesting we need to see more momentum to come through to sustain the rally. If we selloff further, then we should see support at 119'01 then 118'04.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Will GOLD behave differently this time? Anyone, even those who have never invested, will tell you that gold is a safe haven. Especially when the market is pouring blood. Unfortunately, for more than two months now, gold has been falling, despite the fact that the stock market and global indices are showing bearish sentiment. This is mainly due to the change in monetary policy in the U.S. – the Fed has started raising interest rates. How long can this last? Personally, I think gold is slowly approaching the end of its declines, because the data are not so favorable to the dollar after the first rate hikes. Inflation is advancing; indices and large companies are trading lower and lower; more and more talk of recession; less and less confidence in what Fed members are saying. And even if interest rates continue to rise, gold, in my opinion, will at worst be in a long-term consolidation, and at best the price will aim towards $3,000/oz. Technically, the price stopped at the quarterly tenkan, monthly kijun and additionally the weekly cloud. The first resistence are the D1 kijun – price: 1895 – followed by the W1 kijun – price: 1915. If the price starts to seriously bounce from the above levels, the long-term consolidation scenario may start to materialize. Definite breakthrough of these resistances, is a clear signal for growths. In case of long-term increases, the stopping levels are determined by the N waves seen above.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Manticore_Investments
Gold Returns to a Value AreaGold has rejected $1836, and has made its back down to the value area we identified earlier. Recall that $1795 to $1815 was a range held by gold in the past. We suggested that if it did not have the strength to break out into the upper $1800's or the $1900's, it was likely to return to this range. After rejecting $1836, we fell straight through $1826, and broke through $1815, currnetly finding support somewhere in the middle of our expected range. We should have further support from $1795, but if not, there will be further support in the $1780's. We anticipate $1851 to hold as a ceiling if we catch another burst of momentum.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Inflation is high, Why gold price falling?As traders, of course.. We know that when inflation is too high, safe haven prices such as gold will soar. But that only applies before 2009. Before bitcoin was launched for the first time. Not many traders know, that market participants such as banks, big institutions, fund managers, and big companies trust bitcoin as a safe-haven, which actually competes with gold. When inflation is too high, market participants will move their money between bitcoin and gold. So this is one of the reasons why gold falls when inflation is too high. We can clearly see from the short-term chart above, that gold is bearish but bitcoin is bullish, and vice versa, the unidirectional correlation between bitcoin and gold. However, when the USD is optimistic about strengthening, both will be equally bearish. It can be concluded that both are the same as hedging asset. Also, we can use COT data from CFTC and LME to know gold and crypto sentiment and correlation. Coinbase and JPMorgan can also be considered. But I'll discuss this separately in the next explanation. Hopefully this can help anyone, so that it can be considered for trading in gold and bitcoin. Practicing how to understand market behavior is much better than just understanding.
SAXO:XAUUSDEducation
by DNP-FX
Can Gold Maintain $1800??Gold has smashd through lowe levels, but found support exactly where we identified yesterday at $1815. Notice that $1815 is the last major level in the $1800's, and there is a nice value area below from a few months prior between $1795 and $1815. If we break down further, it is highly likely that we will seek value there again. The Kovach OBV has dropped off dramatically, but appears to be leveling off. If we see a relief rally, then $1836 or $1851 are reasonable targets.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Benefit from Risk-On OutflowsBonds have picked up, breaking through several of our upside levels. We set a target of 119'23, and that is exactly the level we've reached. We are seeing signs of resistance here from several red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up however, but it is doubtful momentum will take us much further, given the market conditions. If we are able to break out again, then we should see resistance at 120'14 and 121'00, who relative highs. From below we will have support from 119'01 and 118'04.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
GOLD/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishXAU/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Cup and Handle formation from August 2011 still valid + recent downturn can be attributed to a strong dollar (move to treasuries) but overarching theme of geopolitical uncertainty and inflation still control the narrative thus far*. Recommended ratio 40% gold, 60% cash. Price is currently testing the 200 MA at $1838 as support and is still technically testing the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870 as support as well. Volume (according to CME data) is moderately high and on track to favor sellers for three consecutive sessions as it is at a critical support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1895, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from April 2013 at 32 as support (for the first time since August 2021) after being rejected by 39.34 resistance. Stochastic reverted to a bearish crossover after being rejected by 21.78 resistance and is currently trending down at 3.50 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is slightly trending down at -24 as it tests -19.72 support. ADX is slightly trending up at 21 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend support at the 200 MA ($1838) then the next likely target is a retest of $1910 resistance (after reclaiming the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870). However, if Price breaks down here, the next likely target is a retest of $1702 support which would invalidate the Cup and Handle formation. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1910.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by dailytaguy
USDCAD: Greenback Ready To Head Higher Towards 1.33500 USDCAD broke the major resistance on the weekly & monthly timeframe signaling that it is ready to head higher towards the next high present at 1.33500. With the DXY also likely to head higher, this particular pair has been quite resilient in heading higher due to the Lonnie being supported by higher OIL prices. However a slow move upwards is supported by the fundamental factors which are in the favor of the USD. Therefore this pair might keep climbing steadily until it meets its next resistance at 1.33500. This is just my opinion on this pair and its current outlook. the trade criteria are all met and shown on the main chart. Trade carefully using ideal risk to reward ratio. Anyways shall the price retrace to the desired support, i shall make a new post on the trade details. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis