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Safehaven

Gold Smashes Lower LevelsGold has fallen further, finding support exactly at our target that we identified yesterday at 1735. We are starting to see what could be the beginnings of a pivot, with a green triangle on the KRI suggesting we are finding support at this level. The Kovach OBV is very bearish, but has flatlined a bit which may indicate that the bleeding has stopped for now. If we do pivot from here, the mid 1700's should provide resistance with 1777 a likely ceiling for now. If we collapse further, we could find support at the base of the 1700 handle.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Relief Rally in GoldGold broke down into the value area between 1815 and 1795, but swiftly spiked back to 1826, where we are seeing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, but we are starting to look oversold as both Kovach momentum indicators are bearish. We will see if the spike back to 1826 can sustain, or if it is just a relief rally. If momentum sustains then 1836 and 1851 are the next targets. Otherwise, we expect it to stabilize between 1795 and 1815.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Gold Tests Lower LevelsGold is encroaching upon lower levels of support as we predicted yesterday. It has steadily trended downward, though spikes in volatility have tested higher levels. We are seeing good support from 1826, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has been steadily down trending, but appears to be leveling off, suggesting support may hold, but if not, 1815 is the next target. Recall that there is a value area between 1795 and 1815. If we break out, then 1836 and 1851 are the next targets.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
3
Gold (XAUUSD) Prepares to Revisit 2021 Lowsi posted an idea about 5 minutes ago which suggested that gold would be due for yet another all time high in the coming months, but immediately after doing so i recognized a glaring invalidation in the bottom of my wave structure. with a three-wave move swinging down from $2063 to $1682, i consider this to be the first move within a 3-3-5 flat correction (better known as wave) with a three-wave move to follow, which sent Gold from $1682 to $2067, i consider this to be the second move within a 3-3-5 flat correction (better known as wave) considering a total 3-3-5 formation to develop here, i am looking for such a development of 5 waves to come down from $2067. this five-wave move would complete the expected 3-3-5, Flat correction for Gold. but where should/would/could the 5 wave move end and find bullish support? with the aforementioned wave finding resistance at the 100% mark or peak of wave 's start, we can generally expect wave to find support near 100% of wave 's bottom. this bottom is very much near $1682. i believe the internal construct of the downside wave to already be in motion obviously, as to how its forming so far and how it will continue to form, this is my prediction.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DigitalSurfTrading
3
Gold Tests the Lower $1800'sGold broke out through the vacuum zone after edging down in the lower 1800's. We tested 1826, though multiple green triangles on the KRI started to indicate that the selloff was encumbered. This suggested a break out was near and subsequently we hit 1851. Recall that we can expect increased resistance starting at this level through the mid 1850's and that is exactly what we saw. After hitting 1851, we immediately rejected it and plummeted back to 1826. If we fall further, watch for support at 1815, then there is a value area between 1795 and 1815.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Gold Meets ResistanceGold found support at 1815 and shot up to the mid 1850's. As we have mentioned in these reports multiple times, we are meeting resistance from a cluster of levels in the mid 1850's. In particular, 1851 and 1857 are providing formidable resistance. If we are able to break through then 1865 and 1876 are the next targets. The Kovach OBV is rounding off suggesting momentum has petered out and we are likely to establish value at lower levels or retrace back down to test 1836 or 1826. We expect 1815 to hold as a floor price for now.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bond Yields Soar as APAC Prices in CPI and Fed's ReactionBonds have gotten slammed as yields have soared, smashing through several levels below when we've reported last, as the APAC session prices in CPI data from Friday. We smashed expectations for inflation and investors are rushing to price in the Fed's reaction. Barclays thinks that they will raise rates by 75 bps in order to counter these soaring numbers. We sliced through the 117's with ease and are finally finding support at the base of the 116 handle. We have projected another level of support at 115'29 using inverse Fibonacci extension levels since we've simply run out of support levels for the US ten year. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish, however we do appear to be finally leveling off a bit, so perhaps this level will hold. If not, expect resistance from 116'20.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Gold Valtility Consolidates FurtherGold continues to consolidate in the mid 1800's. We have met strong resistance from a cluster of levels beginning at 1851, with strong resistance from the upper most of these at 1865. Earlierthis month, 1876 proved to be a hard upper bound, and we expect this to hold as a ceiling even if more momentum comes through. From below 1836 and 1826 should hold as a floor for now. Volatility has consolidated notably, suggesting that we may continue to range and establish value in this broad price.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Bonds Stabilize at LowsBonds have found support just above our level at 117'19. We appear to be forming a bear wedge, but the Kovach OBV is flat, suggesting we may range at current levels. After the precipitous decline from 121'00, it is likely that we will establish value in a sideways correction or even a relief rally, before another selloff. If we break down further, then 117'08 is the next level where we should anticipate support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 116'20. A relief rally could take us as high as 119'01.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
US2Y Treasury Yield vs Gold The correlation between the 2Y & gold indicates that when the US2Y peaks, there is a US recession & gold rallies to new highs subsequently after. ** 1 = Peak in US2Y ( 1989 ) did not see a rally in gold because gold was depegged from the USD in the mid 1970's. 2 = Peak in US2Y ( 2000 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession. 3 = Peak in US2Y ( 2007 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession. 4 = Peak in US2Y ( 2020 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession. Speculation 5? = Do we see a continuation of the opposite correlation between the US2Y & Gold when the US2Y peaks? I believe so. However, I see two scenarios for gold if & when the US2Y peaks. Scenario #1: Gold rallies to new highs after the peak in yields Scenario #2 ( Base Case ): After peak in US2Y, Gold rallies to tests previous high & fails to make new highs.
TVC:US10YLong
by brandonmattis
Gold Rejects HighsGold broke through our upper bound at 1865. We had noted the strong technical resistance at this level, confirmed by multiple red triangles over the latter half of May. But as predicted, gold hit our profit target of 1876. We are seeing immediate resistance here, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV spiked up hard with the rally, but has immediately slumped over, suggesting that we may reject 1876 or range between this level and 1865. If we are able to break out further, there is a vacuum zone to 1895.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
DXY USD Index : Greatest dive of USD on the way? 23.5Friday & today we can clearly see recovery of metals & crypto -But not stocks. Meaning, inflation hedging instruments are on the rise while the USD is diving. Makes a lot of sense. What makes much less sense is the rally of USD between March to last week, the last 9-10 weeks. It was pushed by rate hike news and overall panic/investment liquidation. But this is obviously a very temporary phase. What happens when the dust settles? Investment will be resumed. Where will the money go? Where every news article you see daily suggests. Inflation hedging instruments. Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.. Now let's look at the technicals : 1) Trend-line since the beginning of March 2022 rally is broken down. Suggesting immediate down-trend in potential. 2) Head & Shoulder pattern with a 102.20 neck-line is suggesting a possible bounce as retest of the trend-line breakout at around 103. If no bounce up from neck-line happens and it continues lower - The next target is likely to be 101.20 - 100.80 very quickly and continued escalation up of metals and crypto. 3) 103.80-104.50 was key horizontal resistance of many, many years. It makes a lot of sense that it would stretch up to test it and would settle for highest point. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found idea useful, please like and follow - It would mean a lot to me :) I'm here to answer any and all questions and comments , don't hesitate to ask. I hope you are doing well with your trading and encourage you to be cautious and do your own research when trading. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXYShort
by Exactus
4
Gold Meets Resistance in the Mid $1800'sGold has found support exactly at $1836, one of our levels. We noted in previous reports that gold should find support at $1836 or $1826. From here we saw a pivot back to relative highs in the mid $1800's. Recall that we have a dense cluster of levels in the mid $1800's at $1857, $1857 and $1865. These align with relative lows from early May, and are currently acting as a barrier to higher prices. The Kovach OBV is tapering up slightly, but we will need more momentum to hit $1876, our next target. If we reject current levels, $1836 and $1826 should provide support.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Test Higher LevelsBonds have edged up higher, with ZN hitting our target of 121'00. This is a strong psychological and technical level. We are seeing a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV so unless more momentum comes thorugh, anticipate a dip or some ranging between 120'14 and 121'00. If we dip further, 119'23 should provide support. If we are able to break out further, then we have a fairly wide vacuum zone to the next level and target at 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
Gold (XAUUSD): Bulls Love KaratsAs continuation of my previous posts for Gold, this micro wavemap seems to indicate the Gold is due for sideways movement for the next week possibly. 'Sideways' is never truly 100% sideways however. The unappealing, minimal upside producing drag should be a clear sign to investors that Gold is losing is steam in this region. As one can see in my previous post, I believe that after this anticipated fractal pattern plays out, Gold will return to $1800, maybe a few bucks lower. Surf carefully and with precaution if using this itinerary as nothing is ever guaranteed until it happens. At all costs, this wavemap should be considered invalid with a break below the red line. Hypothetically, this could/should be used as a Stop Loss level. Happy Surfing!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DigitalSurfTrading
7
Gold Recovers the $1800'sGold has found support from the upper $1700's, and made a run for the mid $1800's. We smashed through the upper bound of a previous value area at $1815, then passed through several levels after that to reach $1851, which we identified in these reports as a target. We expected resistance here, since this level is a relative low from earlier in May. We are indeed seeing resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to break through, then we will see resistance from several technical levels up to $1876, then there is a vacuum zone to $1895. If we fall from here, $1836 and $1826 should provide support with $1815 a likely floor for now.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Bonds Pick UpBonds have found support and made a run for higher levels. The ten year dipped 119'23 into the 118's, finding support just above our level at 118'04. We then saw a rebound to 120'14, which we have been identifying as the next target after 119'23. It will take some momentum to break this level however, since this is a relative high from back in April. We are already seeing steep resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is gradually trending up, but is a oscillating with the dips, suggesting we need to see more momentum to come through to sustain the rally. If we selloff further, then we should see support at 119'01 then 118'04.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Will GOLD behave differently this time? Anyone, even those who have never invested, will tell you that gold is a safe haven. Especially when the market is pouring blood. Unfortunately, for more than two months now, gold has been falling, despite the fact that the stock market and global indices are showing bearish sentiment. This is mainly due to the change in monetary policy in the U.S. – the Fed has started raising interest rates. How long can this last? Personally, I think gold is slowly approaching the end of its declines, because the data are not so favorable to the dollar after the first rate hikes. Inflation is advancing; indices and large companies are trading lower and lower; more and more talk of recession; less and less confidence in what Fed members are saying. And even if interest rates continue to rise, gold, in my opinion, will at worst be in a long-term consolidation, and at best the price will aim towards $3,000/oz. Technically, the price stopped at the quarterly tenkan, monthly kijun and additionally the weekly cloud. The first resistence are the D1 kijun – price: 1895 – followed by the W1 kijun – price: 1915. If the price starts to seriously bounce from the above levels, the long-term consolidation scenario may start to materialize. Definite breakthrough of these resistances, is a clear signal for growths. In case of long-term increases, the stopping levels are determined by the N waves seen above.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Manticore_Investments
Gold Returns to a Value AreaGold has rejected $1836, and has made its back down to the value area we identified earlier. Recall that $1795 to $1815 was a range held by gold in the past. We suggested that if it did not have the strength to break out into the upper $1800's or the $1900's, it was likely to return to this range. After rejecting $1836, we fell straight through $1826, and broke through $1815, currnetly finding support somewhere in the middle of our expected range. We should have further support from $1795, but if not, there will be further support in the $1780's. We anticipate $1851 to hold as a ceiling if we catch another burst of momentum.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy