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Safehaven

Gold Establishes a RangeWe have seen a lot of volatility in gold this month. It fell from $1917 down to support at $1851, from which we saw a pivot and subsequent run back to $1917. however, momentum petered out at $1905, the level below and we retraced almost the entire range. We are currently seeing suport at $1865, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has oscillated with the volatility and seems to be bottoming out at the moment. From here we should remain range bound between $1851 and and $1917, and perhaps volatility will consolidate further. Watch for gold to establish value between $1865 and $1895.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
The Bond Selloff ResumesAs anticipated the bond rout continues. We saw a brief relief rally after the FOMC, as the hikes were largely priced in. However, 119'01 provided prohibitive resistance, and ZN immediately rejected it. We found brief support at 118'04, but have broken through this level, and are currently clinging onto 118'00 by a thread. The next target is the level below at 117'19. The Kovach OBV is extremely oversold, so watch for a relief rally, which could test 119'01 again.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Gold Finds SupportGold has found some support off 1851, as anticipated. After collapsing from the 1900's, we were due for a relief rally. Yesterday, we predicted a relief rally to 1876, and that is exactly what happened. However, we are seeing resistance at 1876, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up slightly with the pivot, but has quickly leveled off, suggesting we need more follow through to attain higher levels. If so, there is a vacuum zone to 1895. If we fail, then 1851 is should continue to provide support, but after that there is a vacuum zone to 1836.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Gold Breaks Down FurtherGold has broken through 1876 and smashed through several levels below, finally finding support at 1851. The selloff resumed after a brief pivot of 1876 took us back to test 1917, where resistance proved prohibitive. The selloff then continued and the Kovach OBV is registering extreme bearish conditions. Though we are seeing support at 1851 confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI, we are not seeing any sort of buy back just yet, which suggests we may press even lower. If so, there is a vacuum zone below to 1836. The Kovach OBV is very oversold at this point so watch for a relief rally which could take us back to 1876, if not higher.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Gold Rejects Highs, Finds Support?Gold has rejected 1917 exactly as we anticipated. Recall that we predicted resistance here as this was the relative low of a range held from the end of March through the beginning of April. We've subsequently retraced the entire move from the pivot off 1876, but appear to be finding support at this level once again. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish once more. We should have further support from 1865 and 1857 if we break lower. From above 1917 will continue to provide resistance but if we break that level, we could reestablish the range discussed earlier.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Gold PivotsWe mentioned yesterday that gold was starting to look oversold at 1876, and sure enough, we got a nice pivot back to the 1900's. We started to see support between 1876 and 1895 confirmed by green triangles forming all the way through this vacuum zone. This suggested that the massive selloff from 2000 was coming to a close and the pendulum was due to swing back. We subsequently blasted through resistance in the 1900's and are currently testing 1917, where we are meeting resistance. This level corresponds with relative lows from the value area established at the end of March and the beginning of April. We should see pretty strong resistance here but if we are able to break through, we will regain the price range between 1917 and 1956.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
1
Utility Stocks Broke Out. Now They’re Pulling Back.Utilities are one of the few parts of the market to hit new highs recently. Now, after a pullback, some dip buyers may get interested in the sector. This chart of the SPDR Utility ETF highlights the $71.10 level where prices peaked in February 2020. XLU was stuck below its old highs throughout the pandemic, and only broke out in March 2022. It’s now pulling back toward that level. Will old resistance become new support? Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is rising from below. Will it also provide support? (As an interesting side note, TradeStation data shows that only three of 11 sector funds closed above their 50-day SMAs yesterday. Consumer Staples and REITs were the other two.) Third, XLU’s stochastic indicator has slipped into oversold territory. Finally, it’s interesting that the recent strength in utilities has occurred after the broader market corrected. That suggests utilities are serving their traditional role as safe havens . TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
AMEX:XLU
by TradeStation
Bonds Continue the Bear RoutBonds have taken another turn south, after flirting briefly with 119'23. With the Fed maintaining their hawkish stance, there is little to support a breakout, or a significant technical retracement. We have broken through lows at 119'01, and are currently hovering over our next target at 188'04. The Kovach OBV has been abysmally bearish for some time now, but does seem to be gradually leveling off, perhaps indicating a bottom soon. If we see a relief rally, then 119'23 should provide resistance.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Gold Hits Our Target!!As we have discussed, gold was facing steep resistance from a dense cluster of levels between 1956 and 1982. We were facing steep resistance at the last level, 1982. However, we were able to break out into the vacuum zone to hit 1999, our target from last week. We are currently meeting resistance here, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still quite strong, however, so if gold can keep up the rally the next target is 2029. It will find support at 1982 again if we retrace.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Gold Running into ResistanceGold has retraced slightly from highs at 1982. This was the top of a dense patch of levels that began at 1962 or so. We are on the precipice of a vacuum zone to 1999, which is our target if we can break out. However, several red triangles on the KRI have confirmed prohibitive resistance for now. The Kovach OBV is still fairly strong, however, and has not dipped significantly despite the retracement. We should have strong support at current levels, but watch the vacuum zone below 1962 to 1936.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Spotlight on the currencies of Ukraine’s neighboursThe USD has lived up to its classification as a safe-haven currency since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Other safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, have failed in this respect. Both have lost strength over the past month and a half. The Swiss franc index has fallen 1.2% over this time, while the Japanese yen has plummeted 8.6%. The physical approximation of Switzerland to the Ukrainian border might explain why the Swiss franc has failed to live up to its safe-haven status. The same reasoning cannot be applied to the yen as Japan has a 5000-mile wide buffer between it and the locale of the conflict. Nevertheless, Switzerland is not the only European country that has been affected by the Ukraine invasion, many of them being direct or close neighbours of Ukraine. Spotlight on the currencies of Ukraine’s neighbours The currencies of several close and bordering countries of Ukraine have followed a similar pattern since Russia entered Ukraine for its ‘special military operation’ on 24 February 2022. The Czech koruna, Polish zloty, and the Hungarian forint each spent the period of 24 February until the 7 March considerably weakening against the US dollar. The US dollar strengthened in a range of 9% to 14% against these pairs. The two weeks before 24 February saw gradual but moderate de-risking in these European currencies, with the US dollar gaining in the range of 2% to 3.5%. Strangely, significant movement was seen on the bookends of this period, on the 24 February, 6 March, and 7 March. All the stranger for the very sharp reversals that took place on 8 and 9 March. This may have been when it became evident that Russia had botched its invasion. The reversals that occurred were not entirely successful in erasing the losses the currencies made since 24 February. The Czech koruna (USDCZK) has fared the best during this affair so far, weakening by only -3% and followed by the Polish zloty (USDPLN) at -4.9% and the Hungarian forint (USDHUF) at -7.8%.
TVC:SXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Can Gold Break Higher??Gold has tested higher levels after being confined between 1917 and 1936 for the past few days. We are still holding the broader range between 1895 and 1973 or so. Gold has taken an upswing, but is facing resistance from a dense patch of levels in this price territory. The Kovach OBV has upticked with the momentum, but it is doubtful that momentum is strong enough to break through these levels. In the event of a retracement, watch for support in the value area between 1917 and 1936. A full retracement could take us back to 1895. Otherwise, the next target is 1999.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
1
XAUUSD Ascending tunnel 4h Since 5th of June to today - ascending tunnel formation built out of higher highs and higher lows creating the shape of a tunnel going up. The range to sustain the pattern is 1789 - 1825. A break below 1789 with a 4h close, will allow for further decline down, as a first stage to 1760 hourly support. A break above 1825 with a 4h close, will allow for target of 1920 weekly resistance to reach in the short-medium term. Important levels range at the high 1790's and low 1800's. Triple top between 2011-2013 on the weekly level show around 1800 - relevance to today is high. A break above will be significant for the continuation of the uptrend breaking new highs. On a fundamental level, needless to say, 10 trillion USD printed money together with overall lack of certainty and hysteria continue to push Gold higher. Printed money dropping the US $ value and lack of real investment in equities don't provide much ground for drop of Gold price below important supports.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
Volatility Narrows in GoldVolatility in gold has fallen substantially. We have been holding the broad range between 1895 and 1956, which narrowed to 1917 to 1936. Currently, we are in the middle of this latter range, stabilizing around 1925. When volatility consolidates, a breakout is near. Volatility has been consolidating for more than a week now, so a breakout should be imminent. If we break out, watch 1956 as a profit target, if we break down, watch 1895, the upper and lower bounds of the broad range, respectively.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy