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Safehaven

Can Gold Maintain $1800??Gold has smashd through lowe levels, but found support exactly where we identified yesterday at $1815. Notice that $1815 is the last major level in the $1800's, and there is a nice value area below from a few months prior between $1795 and $1815. If we break down further, it is highly likely that we will seek value there again. The Kovach OBV has dropped off dramatically, but appears to be leveling off. If we see a relief rally, then $1836 or $1851 are reasonable targets.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Benefit from Risk-On OutflowsBonds have picked up, breaking through several of our upside levels. We set a target of 119'23, and that is exactly the level we've reached. We are seeing signs of resistance here from several red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up however, but it is doubtful momentum will take us much further, given the market conditions. If we are able to break out again, then we should see resistance at 120'14 and 121'00, who relative highs. From below we will have support from 119'01 and 118'04.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
GOLD/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishXAU/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Cup and Handle formation from August 2011 still valid + recent downturn can be attributed to a strong dollar (move to treasuries) but overarching theme of geopolitical uncertainty and inflation still control the narrative thus far*. Recommended ratio 40% gold, 60% cash. Price is currently testing the 200 MA at $1838 as support and is still technically testing the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870 as support as well. Volume (according to CME data) is moderately high and on track to favor sellers for three consecutive sessions as it is at a critical support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1895, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from April 2013 at 32 as support (for the first time since August 2021) after being rejected by 39.34 resistance. Stochastic reverted to a bearish crossover after being rejected by 21.78 resistance and is currently trending down at 3.50 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is slightly trending down at -24 as it tests -19.72 support. ADX is slightly trending up at 21 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend support at the 200 MA ($1838) then the next likely target is a retest of $1910 resistance (after reclaiming the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870). However, if Price breaks down here, the next likely target is a retest of $1702 support which would invalidate the Cup and Handle formation. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1910.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by dailytaguy
USDCAD: Greenback Ready To Head Higher Towards 1.33500 USDCAD broke the major resistance on the weekly & monthly timeframe signaling that it is ready to head higher towards the next high present at 1.33500. With the DXY also likely to head higher, this particular pair has been quite resilient in heading higher due to the Lonnie being supported by higher OIL prices. However a slow move upwards is supported by the fundamental factors which are in the favor of the USD. Therefore this pair might keep climbing steadily until it meets its next resistance at 1.33500. This is just my opinion on this pair and its current outlook. the trade criteria are all met and shown on the main chart. Trade carefully using ideal risk to reward ratio. Anyways shall the price retrace to the desired support, i shall make a new post on the trade details. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
Gold Tests the Lows of the RangeGold tested lows again at $1851, exactly as we discussed. Recall that we anticipated it would fall to this exact level yesterday, here in these reports, as it was likely to feel out the new range it is establishing. We made a run for higher levels, but $1905 provided prohibitive resistance and we sought lows again subsequently. We are getting support from $1851, and if we see a bounce, we may feel out the range again, with $1876 a likely intermediary target. If we break down, there is a vacuum zone to $1836.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Gold Establishes a RangeWe have seen a lot of volatility in gold this month. It fell from $1917 down to support at $1851, from which we saw a pivot and subsequent run back to $1917. however, momentum petered out at $1905, the level below and we retraced almost the entire range. We are currently seeing suport at $1865, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has oscillated with the volatility and seems to be bottoming out at the moment. From here we should remain range bound between $1851 and and $1917, and perhaps volatility will consolidate further. Watch for gold to establish value between $1865 and $1895.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
The Bond Selloff ResumesAs anticipated the bond rout continues. We saw a brief relief rally after the FOMC, as the hikes were largely priced in. However, 119'01 provided prohibitive resistance, and ZN immediately rejected it. We found brief support at 118'04, but have broken through this level, and are currently clinging onto 118'00 by a thread. The next target is the level below at 117'19. The Kovach OBV is extremely oversold, so watch for a relief rally, which could test 119'01 again.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Gold Finds SupportGold has found some support off 1851, as anticipated. After collapsing from the 1900's, we were due for a relief rally. Yesterday, we predicted a relief rally to 1876, and that is exactly what happened. However, we are seeing resistance at 1876, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up slightly with the pivot, but has quickly leveled off, suggesting we need more follow through to attain higher levels. If so, there is a vacuum zone to 1895. If we fail, then 1851 is should continue to provide support, but after that there is a vacuum zone to 1836.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Gold Breaks Down FurtherGold has broken through 1876 and smashed through several levels below, finally finding support at 1851. The selloff resumed after a brief pivot of 1876 took us back to test 1917, where resistance proved prohibitive. The selloff then continued and the Kovach OBV is registering extreme bearish conditions. Though we are seeing support at 1851 confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI, we are not seeing any sort of buy back just yet, which suggests we may press even lower. If so, there is a vacuum zone below to 1836. The Kovach OBV is very oversold at this point so watch for a relief rally which could take us back to 1876, if not higher.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Gold Rejects Highs, Finds Support?Gold has rejected 1917 exactly as we anticipated. Recall that we predicted resistance here as this was the relative low of a range held from the end of March through the beginning of April. We've subsequently retraced the entire move from the pivot off 1876, but appear to be finding support at this level once again. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish once more. We should have further support from 1865 and 1857 if we break lower. From above 1917 will continue to provide resistance but if we break that level, we could reestablish the range discussed earlier.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Gold PivotsWe mentioned yesterday that gold was starting to look oversold at 1876, and sure enough, we got a nice pivot back to the 1900's. We started to see support between 1876 and 1895 confirmed by green triangles forming all the way through this vacuum zone. This suggested that the massive selloff from 2000 was coming to a close and the pendulum was due to swing back. We subsequently blasted through resistance in the 1900's and are currently testing 1917, where we are meeting resistance. This level corresponds with relative lows from the value area established at the end of March and the beginning of April. We should see pretty strong resistance here but if we are able to break through, we will regain the price range between 1917 and 1956.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
1
Utility Stocks Broke Out. Now They’re Pulling Back.Utilities are one of the few parts of the market to hit new highs recently. Now, after a pullback, some dip buyers may get interested in the sector. This chart of the SPDR Utility ETF highlights the $71.10 level where prices peaked in February 2020. XLU was stuck below its old highs throughout the pandemic, and only broke out in March 2022. It’s now pulling back toward that level. Will old resistance become new support? Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is rising from below. Will it also provide support? (As an interesting side note, TradeStation data shows that only three of 11 sector funds closed above their 50-day SMAs yesterday. Consumer Staples and REITs were the other two.) Third, XLU’s stochastic indicator has slipped into oversold territory. Finally, it’s interesting that the recent strength in utilities has occurred after the broader market corrected. That suggests utilities are serving their traditional role as safe havens . TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
AMEX:XLU
by TradeStation
Bonds Continue the Bear RoutBonds have taken another turn south, after flirting briefly with 119'23. With the Fed maintaining their hawkish stance, there is little to support a breakout, or a significant technical retracement. We have broken through lows at 119'01, and are currently hovering over our next target at 188'04. The Kovach OBV has been abysmally bearish for some time now, but does seem to be gradually leveling off, perhaps indicating a bottom soon. If we see a relief rally, then 119'23 should provide resistance.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy