Get started

Safehaven

Gold Running into ResistanceGold has retraced slightly from highs at 1982. This was the top of a dense patch of levels that began at 1962 or so. We are on the precipice of a vacuum zone to 1999, which is our target if we can break out. However, several red triangles on the KRI have confirmed prohibitive resistance for now. The Kovach OBV is still fairly strong, however, and has not dipped significantly despite the retracement. We should have strong support at current levels, but watch the vacuum zone below 1962 to 1936.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Spotlight on the currencies of Ukraine’s neighboursThe USD has lived up to its classification as a safe-haven currency since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Other safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, have failed in this respect. Both have lost strength over the past month and a half. The Swiss franc index has fallen 1.2% over this time, while the Japanese yen has plummeted 8.6%. The physical approximation of Switzerland to the Ukrainian border might explain why the Swiss franc has failed to live up to its safe-haven status. The same reasoning cannot be applied to the yen as Japan has a 5000-mile wide buffer between it and the locale of the conflict. Nevertheless, Switzerland is not the only European country that has been affected by the Ukraine invasion, many of them being direct or close neighbours of Ukraine. Spotlight on the currencies of Ukraine’s neighbours The currencies of several close and bordering countries of Ukraine have followed a similar pattern since Russia entered Ukraine for its ‘special military operation’ on 24 February 2022. The Czech koruna, Polish zloty, and the Hungarian forint each spent the period of 24 February until the 7 March considerably weakening against the US dollar. The US dollar strengthened in a range of 9% to 14% against these pairs. The two weeks before 24 February saw gradual but moderate de-risking in these European currencies, with the US dollar gaining in the range of 2% to 3.5%. Strangely, significant movement was seen on the bookends of this period, on the 24 February, 6 March, and 7 March. All the stranger for the very sharp reversals that took place on 8 and 9 March. This may have been when it became evident that Russia had botched its invasion. The reversals that occurred were not entirely successful in erasing the losses the currencies made since 24 February. The Czech koruna (USDCZK) has fared the best during this affair so far, weakening by only -3% and followed by the Polish zloty (USDPLN) at -4.9% and the Hungarian forint (USDHUF) at -7.8%.
TVC:SXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Can Gold Break Higher??Gold has tested higher levels after being confined between 1917 and 1936 for the past few days. We are still holding the broader range between 1895 and 1973 or so. Gold has taken an upswing, but is facing resistance from a dense patch of levels in this price territory. The Kovach OBV has upticked with the momentum, but it is doubtful that momentum is strong enough to break through these levels. In the event of a retracement, watch for support in the value area between 1917 and 1936. A full retracement could take us back to 1895. Otherwise, the next target is 1999.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
1
XAUUSD Ascending tunnel 4h Since 5th of June to today - ascending tunnel formation built out of higher highs and higher lows creating the shape of a tunnel going up. The range to sustain the pattern is 1789 - 1825. A break below 1789 with a 4h close, will allow for further decline down, as a first stage to 1760 hourly support. A break above 1825 with a 4h close, will allow for target of 1920 weekly resistance to reach in the short-medium term. Important levels range at the high 1790's and low 1800's. Triple top between 2011-2013 on the weekly level show around 1800 - relevance to today is high. A break above will be significant for the continuation of the uptrend breaking new highs. On a fundamental level, needless to say, 10 trillion USD printed money together with overall lack of certainty and hysteria continue to push Gold higher. Printed money dropping the US $ value and lack of real investment in equities don't provide much ground for drop of Gold price below important supports.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
Volatility Narrows in GoldVolatility in gold has fallen substantially. We have been holding the broad range between 1895 and 1956, which narrowed to 1917 to 1936. Currently, we are in the middle of this latter range, stabilizing around 1925. When volatility consolidates, a breakout is near. Volatility has been consolidating for more than a week now, so a breakout should be imminent. If we break out, watch 1956 as a profit target, if we break down, watch 1895, the upper and lower bounds of the broad range, respectively.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Bonds Sell Off on Hawkish Fed MinutesBonds are back to hugging lows, after a brief attempt at higher levels. We found immediate resistance one level above at 121'00. Even the rally to that level encountered serious resistance at every step, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We are back to lows again at 120'14. The Kovach OBV is very bearish so we can expect an imminent breakdown to lower levels. Our next target is 119'23, which is significant as we will have given up the 120's all together.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Breakout Soon for Gold??Volatility in gold has narrowed considerably. We were holding the broad range between 1895 and 1956, which narrowed to 1917 to 1936. Currently, we are in the middle of this latter range, stabilizing around 1925. When volatility consolidates, a breakout is near. Volatility has been consolidating for more than a week now, so a breakout should be imminent. If we break out, watch 1956 as a profit target, if we break down, watch 1895, the upper and lower bounds of the broad range, respectively.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Could EURCHF Finally Breach PARITY & Head lower ?Since the conflict began, EURO has been the worst performing currency! Now with the conflict continues to inflict pain on the European economy, we can expect the EURO to keep weakening. Against the safehaven CHF, it hit parity not so long ago and with the SNB not hinting at any intervention in markets, it is likely that this pair breaches parity and keeps heading lower. With the fundamental factors strongly against the EURO, lets look at the technical part. Firstly there is the main talking point, the 1.0000 parity psychological support that needs to be cleared in order for the likely downtrend resumption. For this to happen, the monthly candle needs to close below 1.0000 mark. This would give this trade a high probability that indeed the price wants to head lower. The above main criteria must be met. Looking at other things, there is a steep descending trendline on weekly charts that would likely guide the price to its next support found at 0.97000 level. Have a look at the trade details below: TRADE TYPE: SHORT SWING TRADE STOP LOSS: ABOVE THE TRENDLINE AT 1.03000 (1:1 RR) ENTRY: 1.0000 (AFTER THE M CANDLE CLOSES BELOW PARITY, A RETRACE MOVE TO RETEST THE BROKEN SUPPORT MUST BE AWAITED) TAKE PROFIT: 0.97000 SUPPORT VISIBLE ON THE WEEKLY CHARTS The main criteria must be met first at all costs for this trade to be valid. Have a look at the main chart for complete observant info. Trade safely Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please Like & Follow for more insights into Major & Minor currency pairs.
Short
by FX618Analysis
Will the Bond Market Continue to Sell Off??Bonds have reached a relative high at 123'01 to the tick then promptly rejected this level. A red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance and we headed straight back down to through the 122 handle to finally find support at 121'28. We are currently seeing some support here, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV has taken a steep dive south suggesting the bear rout is about to pick up again. If so, the next target is 121'00, then 120'14. If we are wrong, we must break through 123'01 before we can consider higher levels.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
AUDCHF: Trend Continuation Likely As Prices Could Aim For 0.72!With rising inflation, the commodities linked currencies such as the AUD are set to keep appreciating in the near future! whereas on the other hand, the safehaven currencies such as the JPY and in this case the CHF, are all but set to drop in value in the coming months. This vast difference is based on the country's economic policies outlook. Here we are looking at the AUDCHF weekly chart and based on the fundamental outlook, trend continuation is a likely scenario. Now coming to the technical analysis part, AUDCHF has been in an uptrend for a long time and currently the price has tested the 0.70000 psychological resistance. The next resistance beyond 0.7000 lies at the 0.72000 region, however for this target to be attained, the concrete psychological resistance of 0.7000 must be cleared. The main criteria for this trade to be valid in this scenario would be for the monthly candle to close above 0.70000 psychological resistance. This would likely ensure that the level is cleared and thus the prices are ready to head higher. The stop loss should be placed beneath the rising weekly trendline and swing low. The take profit should be set at the next swing high, which is the 0.72000 region. Once the criteria is met, as for all the trades, a 1:1 RR is necessary to manage the risk. In this case we need to wait for the price to retrace if the criteria is met. Retracement should hit 0.68000 level after which a LONG trade could be executed. This would ensure we have a 1:1 RR. However shall the criteria be met and the take profit is hit first, then the trade becomes invalid!. Have a look at the main chart for clear picture on the instruction and explanation above. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights into Major & Minor currency pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Soaring OIL Prices Could Make CADJPY HIT 100.000!Soaring OIL prices has caused the LOONIE to strengthen considerably! On the other hand the JPY has lost ground against all the major currencies. The depreciation in the YEN is driven by the inflation fear in world's major economies caused by the conflict in eastern Europe and soaring OIL prices is not lending a helping hand to the JPY. With OIL prices predicted to keep soaring further this year, we can expect this pair to keep climbing steadily. Now coming to the technical analysis part, we have a clear long term uptrend trend supported by the two weekly trendlines. For this trend to continue, we require a technical confirmation, in this case the monthly candle needs to close above 95.000 psychological resistance. After this we have to wait for the price to retrace to 95.000 psychological support before executing a LONG trade. Patience is everything in this trade, as the retrace would help us attain 1:1 RISK TO REWARD RATIO. A stop loss can be place just beneath the rising trendline just below 90.000 level. Take profit set at 100.000 psychological resistance. Both the technical and fundamentals favor CAD appreciation In A Long run. So lets see what happens. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights into Major & Minor currency pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Gold Facing Resistance as it Tries to Break OutGold has encroached upon upper levels from its range between 1895 and 1956. We are currently facing resistance from a cluster of levels in the 1950's and 1960's. This dense patch of levels will continue until the 1970's or so. The Kovach OBV has picked up, and if we can break through all these levels we should be clear to test the 1980's, with 1982 in particular a likely target. If we break down, the former lower bound of our range at 1895 should provide support.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Bonds Bear Rout Bottoming Out??Bonds have stabilized for now after a brief relief rally. We tested higher levels at 123'15 or so, after falling 7 handles from the 129's to the 122's in less than one month. The rally was short lived, and just a technical respite into the overall bear trend, exactly as we had predicted here. The price promptly rejected this level, as anticipated, and headed back down to lows. We found support just above the low at 122'10 and have been equilibrating thereabouts, between this level and 123'01. There is nothing to suggest any deviation from the bear rout, overall except perhaps for small relief rallies. If the bear momentum picks up again our next target is 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
GOLD-Spot: Bullish Fakey Setup |23-3-22GOLD – SPOT: Potential Multi-Bar Bullish Fakey Setup Price Action: Price formed a potential Multi-Bar Bullish Fakey Setup, overnight. Price briefly moved higher from the recent Bullish Pin Bar Signal that had formed, mid-last week Potential Trade Idea 1: For more aggressive traders, we are considering buying on a breakout above the current potential Multi-Bar Bullish Fakey Setup, with risk management below the Fakey Bar. Potential Trade Idea 2: We are still considering buying on a retracement lower and after a price action signal on a daily, 4 hourly, or 1 hourly chart, at or just above the $1853 – $1877 short-term support area.
GLong
by UnknownUnicorn393254
Every Day a New Low for Bonds!!Bonds keep falling as yields are rising globally. It seems that we have to redo our levels to predict yet another new low in ZN. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish and we have fallen 7 handles, from the 129's to 122's in the month of March. We are currently testing support at 122'10, but the bear rout shows no sign of stopping. It would be unwise to try to catch a knife here, although the probability of a relief rally increases with each rung down. Our next taget is 121'28. A relief rally could test 123'01 or 123'15.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
USDJPY Time To ReverseAfter a big significant growth, price has reached the strong weekly resistance zone which has been existed since December 2016. Currently, in the 4H time frame, we can see a downside push on price and it seems like it is making a reversal double top pattern. There is a yellow support level at 117.790 which is also the last price low. If price breaks this level and closes a bearish candle below it, we can expect a drop on USDJPY to 117.200 and in the case of more downside pressure, price may drop more to visit 116 as well.
Short
by Mahtab_Tradia
12
What Safe Haven? Gold Finally Ignites Route to $1780-1840Although a bit early in calling the top two weeks ago, Gold has finally begun its descent to test the range of $1780-$1840 as previously predicted. Nothing goes straight up or straight down however. Considering the sideways 3-3-5 movement expected in Wave 4 and also the 3 wave corrective move in B wave, I think its safe to say Gold will stick between $1880-$1980 for the next few days, before making its last leg down to $1780-$1840.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DigitalSurfTrading
6
Bond Yields at Highest Levels Since 2019Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot from lows at 124'19, but 125'07 is providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to continue the rally and break through resistance, then 125'17 and 126'00 are the next targets above. If we continue to sell off, then 124'06 is the next target below.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
HOT INFLATION DRIVING USDJPY CRAZY!With inflation running at decades high, USDJPY has been gaining a lot of momentum in the past few weeks driven by the FED's outlook on hiking rates. With the WAR between Russia & Ukraine contributing hugely to the already spiking inflation across the globe, the FED would probably be inclined to tame this by raising interest rates. But what is the FED's latest thinking and outlook would likely be known this week. With that said, both USD & JPY are safehaven currencies! With the development that's going on currently, the fundamentals are in favor of the USD here as the inflation fears is driving up the value of the greenback. Here on the main monthly chart, we can clearly see the price might meet a strong multi-month descending trendline resistance located at 118.500 area. From here onwards its in the FED hands directly as to what they plan to do to tame this hot inflation. Shall the FED decides to hike rates this year numerous times then we can expect this resistance to clear easily and the price can head towards the 120.000 psychological resistance with ease in the coming weeks and possibly higher in the future. On the other hand if the FED does not deliver, this resistance might hold and the prices might start heading lower. All in all this week might set the course as to where this pair might be headed in the future. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights on major currencies pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Safe Haven Inflows Still Lifting Gold (For Now)Ukraine woes still weigh on global markets and although gold has retraced significantly, it is still hanging onto the high 1900's. Positive news is incoming as we compose this thread including Putin acknowledging "positive undertones" in Ukraine talks . We have given up the 2000's after touching highs at 2070. After finding support at 1982, we appear to be making a run for 2000 again, currently testing 1999 and hovering about 1995 or so at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV is drifting downwards, suggesting a slight bear bias, but we have a lot of support levels below to buoy the price, including 1982, 1977, 1973, and 1964. It is doubtful we will slice through all of these, but watch the vacuum zone below to 1936. If we get a lift, then 2029, 2048, and 2070 are the next targets.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
1