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Euro lower as US inflation dips slightlyThe euro is lower on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0908, down 0.28%. The German economy has been struggling but there was positive news as German retail sales rose 1.6% in August and 1.5% in July, after declines of 1.1% in June and 1.4% in May. The four monthly releases were all published today due to a technical problem in June. US inflation for September was within expectations and the market reaction has been muted. Headline CPI continued its downswing and rose 2.4% y/y, down from 2.5% in August but above the market estimate of 2.3%. The decline in inflation was driven by a decrease in energy prices, particularly gasoline. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.2% in September, unchanged from August but above the market estimate of 0.1%. Core CPI remains a bit high and came in at 3.3% y/y, above the August reading of 3.2% and the market estimate of 3.2%. Still, the Fed has demonstrated that it is willing to slash rates by 50 basis points despite inflation running above the 2% target. Today’s inflation data hasn’t changed market expectations for the November meeting, which remain at around 85% for a cut of 25 basis points. The Fed minutes reflected optimism about the US economy, a signal that more rate cuts are in the pipeline. There was only one dissenting vote against the 50-bps cut in September, but the minutes indicated that some dovish members voted with the majority although they would have preferred a modest 25 bps cut. Jerome Powell may not have the same support for another jumbo cut if the labor market remains solid. That could mean cuts of 25 bps at the November and December meetings. EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.0920 and is testing support at 1.0901. Below, there is support at 1.0865 1.0956 and 1.0975 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
$NKE Nike, Inc is finally back to CHEAP-ENOUGH levelsMany years ago I had drawn this 1.7-1.3 level in the PSR (or Price-to-Sales Ratio) for NYSE:NKE and the recent smack down for NYSE:NKE stock has put it within reach of the 1.7-1.3 X Sales zone. The RETURN for shareholders has been negative for the last 7 years in NYSE:NKE when adjusted for inflation. The stock is basically unchanged back to 2018 here (not factoring dividends). What is the point of this? When a stock gets sold down on bad news, there is an underlying level of value which will support it from that point forward. There are always portfolio managers looking to invest in stocks that have had solid long term fundamentals with rising sales and earnings and a nearly recession-proof business model. The opposite is also true that there are NO BUYERS for a stock once it gets ridiculously overpriced and no one can justify buying shares are high prices. The only hope you have at that point is for momentum to attract new buyers who aren't paying attention to valuation and because of tax laws that encourage people to hold on for long term capital gains tax rates to kick in for holding periods greater than 1 year. Thanks to TradingView for providing all of this high quality fundamental information AND for the ability to graph this data so we can visualize and see where the value is in the marketplace. The value is down here in NYSE:NKE shares so it is a good time to start buying. Cheers, Tim 3:47PM July 1, 2024 76.67 last +1.30 +1.72%
Editors' picks
NYSE:NKELong
by timwest
21
Tesla Valuation back to 2010 IPO$TSLA has had wild swings in valuation from under 2 times sales and over 20 times sales in the past few years. Granted, you have to know the future to know what the sales are, but in 2019 it was insanely cheap just as the Model Y was just starting to sell. The MODEL Y is why Tesla has done so well in my opinion. It has dominated and is still growing insanely fast and taking out the competition. The car is amazing. From the first moment I drove it using Turo out in the snow in Montana in 2020 I knew it was a world-car and it was in the largest segment which is Crossover SUV. After the Model Y started dominating, the valuation of Tesla then got up to over 20 times sales, which is beyond insane. Markets provide you with opportunities to buy when things are cheap, but there are uncertainties. Then the market provides you with opportunities to sell when things are expensive, but the momentum and price gains are so strong that it is tempting to hold on. The best thing you can do is learn how to act in both situations. Also, it is OK to watch a stock go higher AFTER you sell. Let go of the need to think you are the smartest person in the market. The person buying from you deserves the right "to be right" for awhile too. So where does $TSLA stand now? In the middle between expensive and cheap. If Tesla goes lower, it gets cheaper and as sales growth continues it will drive the PSR down near 5-4 within 12 months. Will Tesla see 2 times sales again? I doubt it because at 2 times sales before it had a lot of debt ($10B and there were survival concerns at that time along with a VERY LOW investment grade rating in the junk-status category.) Now the opposite is true. Tesla has billions in cash and enough capital to buy back stock and still meet their capital spending for many years. To step back and view the situation from a rational perspective, you have to look at the extremely high valuation that Tesla reached in the bubble of 2020-2021-2022. Step back and look at the long term valuation and trends. Stay tuned. Tim 9:20AM-9:37AM Thursday, November 10, 2022 184.24 last $TSLA
NASDAQ:TSLA
by timwest
14
McDonald's Faces Headwinds as Global Sales Miss for the 1st Time McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ), the global fast-food giant, has hit a speed bump in its impressive growth trajectory, reporting its first quarterly sales miss in nearly four years. The challenges stem primarily from sluggish international business, particularly in the Middle East, China, and India, impacting its bottom line. While overall net profit increased by 7% in the fourth quarter, concerns are emerging about the company's ability to navigate geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and changing consumer behaviors. Slow Growth in International Markets: McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ) faced unexpected headwinds in its International Developmental Licensed Markets segment, which includes the Middle East, China, and India. Comparable sales in this crucial business division rose only 0.7% in the quarter, significantly missing the estimated 5.5% growth. The Middle East market experienced a notable decline, attributed to the Israel-Hamas conflict and the resulting misinformation affecting the brand's perception. The fallout from these geopolitical tensions has put a dent in McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ) international expansion plans. China's Economic Challenges: China, McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ) second-largest market, poses another challenge as consumer spending remains weak despite government support measures. The slow recovery in China has mirrored trends seen by other Western brands, such as Starbucks, highlighting broader economic concerns in the region. Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Brand Perception: CEO Chris Kempczinski pointed out the "meaningful business impact" caused by the conflict in the Middle East and surrounding regions. The company is among several Western brands facing protests and boycott campaigns due to perceived pro-Israeli stances. This not only affected sales but also raised questions about the long-term impact on McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ) brand image and consumer loyalty. Struggling U.S. Business: Even in its home market, signs of weakness are emerging. Traffic at McDonald's U.S. stores saw a significant decline, slumping 13% in October and continuing to decline in November and December. While comparable sales in the U.S. climbed 4.3% in the fourth quarter, just shy of estimates, concerns about sustained growth are starting to surface. Global Same-Store Sales Disappointment: The global same-store sales increased by 3.4% in the quarter, missing estimates of a 4.9% rise. This represents the slowest sales growth in about three years, indicating broader challenges beyond specific regional issues. McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ) will need to reassess its strategies to reinvigorate growth and respond to evolving consumer preferences. Conclusion: McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ), a global icon of fast food, is facing a challenging period as it grapples with geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and shifting consumer behaviors. The first sales miss in nearly four years underscores the need for the company to adapt swiftly to these changing dynamics, reevaluate its international strategies, and address concerns in both emerging and mature markets. As McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ) navigates these challenges, investors and industry observers will be closely watching its initiatives to regain momentum and sustain its position in the competitive global fast-food landscape.
NYSE:MCD
by DEXWireNews
Nike Inc. (NKE) bullish scenario:The technical figure Falling Wedge can be found in the daily chart in the US company Nike Inc. (NKE). Nike Inc. is an American multinational corporation that is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing, and worldwide marketing and sales of footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services It is the world's largest supplier of athletic shoes and apparel and a major manufacturer of sports equipment, with revenue in excess of US$46 billion in its fiscal year 2022. The Falling Wedge broke through the resistance line on 17/03/2023. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 6 days towards 123.99 USD. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 115.87 USD if you decide to enter this position. Nike is expected to report a rise in third-quarter revenue and grow its market share through 2023, helped by major rival Adidas' split with designer and rapper Kanye West which caused the German company to lose about $600 million in quarterly sales. Nike is also expected to get a boost from higher sales of its Jordan Retros and some newer launches as the world's No. 1 sportswear maker stays ahead of rivals through its innovative product lines. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals and cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:NKELong
by legacyFXofficial
Salesforce at resistance?Salesforce Short Term We look to Sell at 190.76 (stop at 198.93) The medium term bias remains bearish. Bespoke resistance is located at 191.00. Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. We look for losses to be extended today. Our profit targets will be 169.86 and 158.00 Resistance: 191.00 / 224.00 / 260.00 Support: 168.00 / 140.00 / 115.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NYSE:CRMShort
by Saxo
Third Time is a Charm: Chinese New Year: Yatsen Retail$YSG has been down only for its existence (i got fleeced badly in the first few post IPO months) fundamentals vs share price are converging toward a point of must-buy China and Chinese ADRs are always known to be massive risk - because many Chinese frauds are in the history book IF this turns out not to be a fraud, Rather it turns out to be the NIO Motors of Retail MakeUp and lifestyle branding THEN this becomes an easy 4 bagger and potentially a 20 bagger in the next few years.
NYSE:YSGLong
by noam_chom
Retail Sales - Macro Data US CB - www.census.gov Advance Monthly, Monthly and Annual Retail Trade Reports, and the Quarterly E-Commerce Report. July decline of 1.1%. - dismal August - Back to School - dismal September - Back to Business - dismal The August 2021 Advance Monthly Retail report is scheduled for release on September 16, 2021 at 8:30 AM EST Retail tends to follow Auto sales - Forecasters expect U.S. auto sales to decline in August 2021 Sales for August 2021 are expected to be around 1.1 million cars and trucks combined, down 13.7% vs. August 2020 and down 25.3% vs. pre-COVID
FRED:RETAILSMSA
by HK_L61
When is Apple cheap? Based on P/S & P/EHey everybody. In this idea i am trying to figure out when is the right time to buy apple based on P/S , P/E and the EMA of 55 Months!!! In order to reach my conclusions i took 5 points starting from the 08 financial crisis. However in that time apple was in super growth and high expectations mode so for sure P/S and P/E were in excess. Definitely over the last years apple's sales and net profit have become more predictable compared to 15-20 years ago. I should also point out that metrics such as P/S, P/E etc.. are really dynamic in relation to monetary policy, so my calculations should not be taken that seriously in times like these. Right now with interest rates globally at 0% and even negative -% and tons of liquidity and young players in the market apple is more of a safe heaven rather than a simple value stock. P/S and P/E right as we speak are deviating away from their mean but what i want to understand better is not when apple is expensive rather when is cheap!!! Feel free to add your comments and find out together when we should buy this beautiful company. Patience is the key! ***Please note that in my calculations i have not included the latest top!!! since we are not yet sure whether the stock is going to be higher or lower in the upcoming months.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Philoslother
1
Salesforce - is it correction time? or is slack to heavy...So CRM bought slack in a fairly expensive price and this caused investors to pull out and run -which is good because the stock needed to retrace and retrace the gap area between 220 -250. let’s focus on technical : Stock is moving in a downward trend with no lower highs only lower lows which means we are technically not in a downtrend ! the gap from 25th of August was finally filled and now the stock can keep climbing in a safer manner. the best part is we are seeing the correction from the drop beginning to correct and it fits our Stoch & ATR but most importantly it fits our POC and volume that indicates price should go back up to 250 (which is where the august gap ended - the wonders of volume never stop :)) So, stock needs to climb up to the 250 and make sure you keep in mind the 270$ line resistance that was tested several times and not broken To sum up, buy position to the 250$ line then we let it correct down for a day or so and jump back in to the 270$ line please note this trade is a quick one I assume a rise in Monday morning premarket and once market will open, we will already be halfway there so make sure you are in on time Happy Xmas and trade safe!
NYSE:CRMLong
by FDGT_academy
Northop Grumman a buy near trend line supportDefense contractor Northop Grumman fell hard toward trend line support both before and after its earnings report last Friday, despite a solid beat of analyst expectations. The fall has occurred as analysts adjusted forward estimates of earnings and sales downward for the next two years. Despite the downward revisions, Northop Grumman remains a growth company, with PEG ratio of 1.8. The share price has fallen much faster than earnings expectations, making NOC a very attractive buy as it approaches support. Let's look at NOC's current price ratios compared to its three-year median price ratios on earnings dates. Here is the implied upside from the current price ratio to the median price ratios on earnings dates over the last three years: P/E: 21% Fwd P/E: 18% P/S: 17% Fwd P/S: 21% P/D: 17% Fwd P/D: 23% P/B: 31% P/FCF: 81% Sentiment on NOC is positive, with an 8.3/10 analyst summary score (average rating Buy). The news environment for the company is good, thanks to several US government contracts recently signed, and several others recently successfully completed. Open interest on NOC is about evenly split between bulls and bears, but the 30-day average of trading volume favors the bulls. NOC is nearing support from July lows and a seven-month trend line. I will look to make a buy around 287.
NYSE:NOCLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
7
AMZN Bullish through earningsMy previous post underestimated the size of the handle and we ended up filling the gap over night. I think we are very bullish from this point until earnings. I would guess a sell off right before and continued strong growth afterwards. We are coming in to the holidays and if retail shopping wasn't bad enough before, now we are dealing with social distancing and a pandemic. It seems clear that Amazon will far exceed any previous earnings. Here's to hoping they are prepared.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by KanyonKing
Biogen trend line to watchBiogen today reported a huge earning beat, but disappointing guidance for the rest of the year. When you crunch the numbers, the midpoint of Biogen's guidance range for 2H 2020 came in slightly below Street consensus for both earnings and revenues. Biogen has a reasonable, but not great valuation, with forward PEG of 3.78 and forward PSG of 1.27. It's currently in the lower half (26th percentile) of its three-year valuation range in terms of forward P/S and forward P/E. Biogen pays no dividend, and as a result the stock is more volatile than a dividend-paying stock would be. Sentiment on Biogen improved quite a bit today. There have been no analyst upgrades yet, but options traders moved from net-bearish to net-bullish positioning for the short term, and from net-bearish to net-neutral positioning for the long term. We're coming up on the strong season for pharmaceutical stocks in August. Biogen has only one phase 2 clinical trial result due in the second half of 2020 for its multiple sclerosis drug, but there are five results due in the first half of 2021, including a phase 3. These could prove to be major catalysts for the stock over the next year. For the near term, watch for a possible trend line break as a sign that the stock will move higher.
NASDAQ:BIIB
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Taiwan Semiconductor guidance crushed Street estimatesI saw a couple articles this morning suggesting that maybe TSM sold off today because forward guidance disappointed Street expectations. That's nonsense. Revenue guidance came in about 7% above expectations, and earnings guidance came in about 15% above Street expectations. This company's guidance crushed it . The stock sold off for one reason only: it is overbought. TSM does look a bit pricey, even with the strong guidance for Q3. Even after factoring in the strong forward guidance, I am calculating forward P/E at about 21 and forward P/S at a little below 8. That's about 20% more expensive in forward P/E terms and 34% more expensive in forward P/S terms than the stock's average valuation over the last three years. In this challenging macroeconomic environment, that seems like an unreasonable valuation. It's a reflection of how inflated tech valuations have gotten due to Fed liquidity and investors piling into tech as a safe haven. Having said that, TSM has an extraordinarily strong growth narrative right now, as the company is set to take over chip production for Apple. Formerly Apple's chips were manufactured by Intel. TSM also makes chips for Qualcomm, among other large companies. Thus, I think TSM will continue to outperform the Nasdaq and is a buy on any significant pullback. Ideally, I'd like to see this stock pull back to the volume node near $53.50 before buying, but in truth I don't see that happening any time soon.
NYSE:TSMLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Ahrvo Weekly Sector Rankings: 4/27/2020With another week of earnings in the books, investors are starting to get a better idea of the impact that coronavirus is having on S&P 500 companies. It’s not pretty. For Q1 2020, the S&P 500’s earnings decline accelerated from -14.5% last week to -15.8% (worst since Q3 2009). The fall in earnings can be attributed to cyclical sectors- materials (down 25%), industrials (down 31%), financials (down 42%), consumer discretionary (down 42%), and energy (down 67%) sectors. Defensive sectors- utilities (up 4%), consumer staples (up 4%), health care (up 3%), and technology (up 1%) have faired much better. Of the 122 companies that have reported results, 60% reported both positive earnings and revenue surprises. However, it’s worth mentioning that analyst expectations were down 10% on average in March, so companies beating expectations are jumping over a lower hurdle. Over the last week, the S&P 500 continued to climb higher, up ~4%. Media outlets have attributed the positive price movement to a possible coronavirus vaccine. The upward movement in price, coupled with decreasing earnings has caused the price-to-earnings ratio (valuation) of the S&P to become expensive relative to historical averages. Making buying stocks expensive at a time when economic uncertainty is at an all-time high. The forward P/E on the S&P 500 is 19.1x, higher than the 5 and 10 year average of 16.7x and 15x, and up from 14x in early March. As an example of the uncertainty facing company executives (and as a result, the investors/traders), only 50 of the 122 companies that have reported results mentioned EPS guidance for Q2 in their earnings presentations. Of the 50 companies, 30 mentioned they were no longer certain of their EPS guidance (forecast) for the year, with all 30 citing coronavirus as the primary reason. Out of the other 20 companies that provided guidance, 10 issued EPS guidance that was lower than previous expectations. Over the last week, all but one (utilities) sector experienced an increase in price. In typical “risk-on” fashion, all cyclical sectors outperformed. Energy (ticker: XLE) led the way, up 9.6%. While financials (ticker: XLF), materials (ticker: XLB), industrials (ticker: XLI), and consumer discretionary (ticker: XLY) returned 6.7%, 6.5%, 4.9%, and 5.1%, respectively. Technology (ticker: XLK) was the only “defensive” sector to outperform, up 5.2%. Utilities (ticker: XLU), healthcare (ticker: XLV), consumer staples (ticker: XLP) returned -.28%,.77%, and .52% respectively. It’s worth noting that sector performance (rotation) was a complete reversal from last week when defensive sectors outperformed cyclicals and the market. As the S&P 500 climbs toward the 3,000 price level, investors need to ask themselves whether the house being built is sitting on solid foundation. The market is trading on the positive news when the reality on the ground is much different- 30 million Americans unemployed over the last 6 weeks. The infusion of liquidity by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government has helped to prop up asset prices. However, ask yourself this question. Why are investors buying into the market at a time when stocks are expensive, economic uncertainty is high, and company executives aren’t even able to articulate what they expect their companies to do over the next 3 to 6 months? It is a recipe for disaster. Although I remain net-long, I don’t plan on adding new capital to stocks until the market pulls back and valuations become reasonable (14x-16x earnings). As the high from stimulus begins to fade, that opportunity will present. -Appo Agbamu, CFA Ahrvo Score (Overall Score) 1)Technology (⬆️1 spot) 2)Utilities (⬇️1 spot) 3)Industrials (⬆️1 spot) 4)Consumer Staples (⬇️1 spot) 5)Consumer Discretionary (no change) 6)Financials (no change) 7)Basic Materials (no change) 8)Health Care (no change) 9)Energy (no change) Momentum Score 1)Healthcare (⬆️1 spot) 2)Technology (⬇️1 spot) 3)Basic Materials (⬆️2 spots) 4)Consumer Staples (no change) 5)Utilities (⬇️4 spots) 6)Industrials (no change) 7)Consumer Discretionary (no change) 8)Financials (no change) 9)Energy (no change) Growth Score 1)Financials (no change) 2)Industrials (no change) 3)Technology (no change) 4)Consumer Discretionary (no change) 5)Consumer Staples (no change) 6)Utilities (no change) 7)Health Care (no change) 8)Basic Materials (no change) 9)Energy (no change) Quality Score 1)Consumer Discretionary (no change) 2)Industrials (⬆️1 spot) 3)Consumer Staples (⬇️1 spot) 4)Technology (no change) 5)Utilities (no change) 6)Energy (⬆️1 spot) 7)Financials (⬇️1 spot) 8)Basic Materials (no change) 9)Health Care (no change) Value Score 1)Industrials (no change) 2)Consumer Discretionary (no change) 3)Financials (no change) 4)Utilities (no change) 5)Energy (no change) 6)Consumer Staples (no change) 7)Basic Materials (no change) 8)Technology (no change) 9)Health Care (no change) This material is for informational purposes only. Under no circumstances should any information or materials presented be used or construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities, financial instruments, investments, or other services. Any investment made is at your sole discretion. There are many factors that you must consider when making an investment decision, including, but not limited to, product features, risks, whether or not an investment meets your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and other personalized factors. Investing in securities involves risks, and there is always the potential of losing your entire investment.
AMEX:SPYShort
by AhrvoStockApp