SAM
institutional money going into TAPNot only is TAP extremely attractive fundamentally, now the technicals and external catalysts are there. Morningstar just named it one of their top stock picks of the year because of its selection by some of their most respected managers.
Morningstar is a non-bias third-party research firm that most advisors use to help keep track of their models, clients' investments, stock valuations, and fund evaluations. They are, IMO, the most reliable source for financial information that is truly material.
TAP is trading at an EV to EBITDA level of 7.8874; under 10 is considered to be that of a company that is running extremely well financially. They have been launching Seltzer products to compete with SAM's Truly. Their Coors seltzer even has an ESG side to it where every case you buy, a certain amount goes to saving rivers.
All in all, do not miss this move. Its FAIR VALUE estimate is $60. In my experience, stocks surpass what is thought to be their legitimate value based on their books/financials. That's easily a 24% return. Keep in mind that VIAC's FAIR VALUE estimate was $57, look at it now. Long story short, price targets are different than fair value estimates; price targets are where you think the stock is going, fair value estimates are where the stock should be priced based on its current financials/books.
My price target for TAP is $75, which would be a 55% return.
SOL isn’t done yet!SOL has been been bringing bears to their knees and making them shed tears for weeks! I don’t see SOL letting up, or having a good size retrace until it reaches ~$40 or potentially higher. I expect anywhere from $40-$48 in the short term (by EOM) and could definitely see further growth with rising publicity, Sam’s seemingly never-ending support, and a HUGE uptick in volume in SOL trading recently. I’m extremely bullish on SOL and have a hard time believing it’s not going to be one of the most dominant coins of the cycle! Let me know what you think in the comments...
$SAM Boston Beer Company: Over-Extended & Priced For Perfection$SAM Boston Beer Company: Over-Extended & Priced For Perfection
Looking back long term whenever this stock gets 30-40% above it's 200d ema line its usually time for some kind of correction.
At its highest peaks it was over 40% above. Right now its over 45% above it with earnings approaching next week.
People aren't socializing as much or congregating in big groups. Bars which had opened are now being forced to close.
Even if they hit their EPS target for the quarter. The story for the near term will not be positive.
This stock is over-bloated and ripe for shorting.
Near Term Target: $575.00
If $575 support is broken we could easily see the $525-$550 range.
Note: Not investment advice.
SAM - WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - BOSTON BEER CO INC - STOCKSA little hindsight on what could have been a nice short. Red line was your level. After a nice drop price pulled back to test that exact level and then went back down again. Price is rising yet again and could come to test that area once more. Since it has been tested before it has a better chance of pushing through it. That is not a rule just something to consider. I would be willing to take a short there if it hits it again but with a TIGHT STOP LOSS. Lines below are places I would take profits.
Good luck out there.
Clearly NOT financial advice.
BOSTON BEER CO 1D TRIANGLE BREAKOUT TRADE Triangles, Descending Triangles, Ascending Triangle and Ranges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Triangles and ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Ascending and descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
$SAM Boston Beer Co - Long Term Bull Flag$SAM Boston Beer Company - Bull flag which began back in July has formed on the weekly chart. Long term price target $425-$450 area by December 2019.
Long term price projection dependent on continued strong earnings and market fundamentals into next year. Breakout to new highs next year will most likely require continued beverage innovation and possibly an additional small brewery acquisition (i.e. Angel City, Coney Island, Concrete Beach).
SAM 2019 options are for the most part thinly traded and expensive, but that doesn't mean there isn't opportunity. I'm looking at a December'19 390/450 bull call spread for a debit of about $600 per contract. Max profit = $6,000 or 10x.
If we can bounce from the current price level and eventually break out of the flag pattern to the upside, a strong break through the $325 level would be a solid confirmation. If we breakdown out of this bull flag and below the 50d ema on the weekly chart, I could see us down around $200 by end of February.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
How do you breakdown your chart?Hopefully, my annotations are simple enough. It is classic Sam Seiden but with a twist from my own experiences as a trader. I entered this trade when price was in the supply zone and i will be looking to close it in the next 2 hours...depending on the candle formation.