Is Russia's Financial Fortress Built on Shifting Sands?The transformation of Russia's financial system has been nothing short of seismic. Once deeply integrated with global markets, Moscow's monetary landscape now finds itself in a state of radical reconfiguration, navigating the turbulent waters of international isolation. This shift carries profound implications, not just for Russia, but for the very foundations of the global financial order.
At the heart of this evolution lies the Russian Central Bank, whose Governor, Elvira Nabiullina, has found herself at the center of an unprecedented storm. Tasked with controlling inflation amid soaring interest rates, Nabiullina faces a growing chorus of dissent from Russia's business elite - a rare and significant development in a country where corporate voices have long remained muted. This internal conflict underscores the delicate balance the Central Bank must strike, as it seeks to stabilize the ruble and safeguard economic growth in the face of crippling Western sanctions.
Russia's financial system has demonstrated remarkable adaptability, forging new international partnerships and developing alternative payment mechanisms. Yet, these adaptations come at a cost, as increased transaction costs, reduced transparency, and limited access to global markets reshape the country's economic landscape. Consumer behavior, too, has evolved, with Russians increasingly turning to cash transactions and yuan-denominated assets, further signaling the shift away from traditional Western financial systems.
As Russia navigates this uncharted territory, the implications extend far beyond its borders. The reconfiguration of its financial architecture is shaping new models for sanctions resistance, the emergence of parallel banking networks, and a potential realignment of global currency trading patterns. The lessons learned from Russia's experience may well influence the future of international economic relationships, challenging long-held assumptions about the resilience of the global financial order.
Sanctions
#OIL UpdateWith this flash crash, presumably caused by US-Iran news about a possible swap of nuclear program for oil sanctions , we're back to the scenario where wave [ 2] is already complete and we're in a leading diagonal formation. The nefarious option of an expanding diagonal remains, but it is less likely.
What Would Happen to Henry Hub NG if China Attacks Taiwan?Since last week the media has published videos and Chinese politicians' statements about the Chinese military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan has also conducted military exercises and preparatory work with the civilian population in the event of an attack. On August 3, the NYT, quoting Chinese state media, published an article about the following Chinese military drills scheduled on August 4 and a place of exercises. Chinese media offered five swaths of the sea surrounding Taiwan. If true, it can be a hostile act, possibly igniting conflict between China and unrecognized Taiwan. Both countries are essential for the world economy, meaning the conflict would affect markets. I hope it will not happen . However, this risk urged me to start a series of posts ' What would happen to asset_name if China attacks Taiwan? '
A brief: China is the second economy in the world by nominal GDP. China is the main trading party for the US, Europe, and many other countries and regions. The country is also a giant gas consumer and LNG importer. According to the EIA, the US was the fourth LNG supplier in China in 2021.
Henry Hub natural gas is a local benchmark. However, its price partly depends on the US LNG trade achievements and obstacles.
In case of a conflict, it would halt LNG export to Taiwan. I estimate Henry Hub participants would also wait for sanctions on Chinese banks or even prohibition of gas trade with China. These would drive expectations of short-term oversupply in the US local market resulting in a sharp price drop of natural gas in America.
In the end, some LNG exporters would change their export from China and Taiwan to other Asian countries, e.g., South Korea, Japan, and India. Other LNG sellers would divert shipments to Europe, suffering from high continent natural gas prices , bringing relief to Europe in terms of volumes and price.
The main shock could happen later. Possible export and import prohibitions between China and the US with Allies would bring manufacturing decline, pushing gas demand lower and cutting its price. It would get a more sustained bearish effect on Henry Hub prices than temporary shipment redirection.
With the technical analysis help, I estimate a first bearish move could put prices down to a support level of $6.4/MMBtu . Then, in case of sanctions, it would go down to the next support of $5.5/MMBtu . It is hard to forecast how long Taiwan can fight and what sanctions will be imposed. I doubt that sensitive restrictions would be imposed during the first days. I also doubt that the US will impose harsh O&G sanctions if China takes over Taiwan quickly. I expect it could happen a month after the start of the conflict. Breaking $5.5/MMBtu through, it would drop to the last winter's $4/MMBtu .
Put options are the best instruments for shorting HH on the potential conflict. For the first target of $6.4/MMBtu , the option with the corresponding strike and expiration in September could suit well. For the following targets of $5.5/MMBtu and $4/MMBtu , I suppose corresponding strikes with October and November expiration.
For futures traders, I guess a stop-loss is $8.5/MMBtu . The stop-loss is ugly and huge in today's Henry Hub Volatility environment. Timing for the trade matters much. I believe that options with an end-of-month expiration date could be good. The position holding period is 7 days to next Thursday. If the bad doesn't happen, it is better to close the long put or futures short position. However, we do not know the date. Solely China knows the exact date if the plan exists. The risk could realize during the next 7 days or be postponed to next month or even later. If the risk realizes later, I expect the same effect on the market, and only target adjustments could be needed.
I wish you peace!
Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
What Would Happen to Gold if China Attacks Taiwan?Since last week the media has published videos and Chinese politicians' statements about the Chinese military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan has also conducted military exercises and preparatory work with the civilian population in the event of an attack. On August 3, the NYT, quoting Chinese state media, published an article about the following Chinese military drills scheduled on August 4 and a place of exercises. Chinese media offered five swaths of the sea surrounding Taiwan. If true, it can be a hostile act, possibly igniting conflict between China and unrecognized Taiwan. Both countries are essential for the world economy, meaning the conflict would affect markets. I hope it will not happen . However, this risk urged me to start a series of posts 'What would happen to asset_name if China attacks Taiwan?'
A brief: China is the second economy in the world by nominal GDP. China is the top producer and buyer of gold in the world. It is the sixth largest gold holder, owning 1948 MT at the end of Q1 2022.
A possible conflict would drive the gold price to break the last resistance of $1790/oz t and move to the middle of the May-June range to $1840/oz t in the short term. The longer the conflict exists, the more sanctions I expect. I can't predict how long Taiwan can fight and what sanctions will be imposed. If the conflict lasts several months, developed nations could prohibit Chinese gold, as they have done with Russian gold. You could see it as a bullish sign. However, China could probit gold imports. The action will decrease demand and weigh on the price.
The position holding period is 7 days to next Thursday. Unfortunately, I do not see a good level for stop-loss. If the bad doesn't happen, it is better to close the long. However, we do not know the date. Solely China knows the exact date if the plan exists. The risk could realize during the next 7 days or be postponed to next month or even later. If the risk realizes later, I expect the same effect on the gold price, and only target adjustments could be needed.
I wish you peace!
Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
What Would Happen to Bitcoin if China Attacks Taiwan?Since last week the media has published videos and Chinese politicians' statements about the Chinese military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan has also conducted military exercises and preparatory work with the civilian population in the event of an attack. On August 3, the NYT, quoting Chinese state media, published an article about the following Chinese military drills scheduled on August 4 and a place of exercises. Chinese media offered five swaths of the sea surrounding Taiwan. If true, it can be a hostile act, possibly igniting conflict between China and unrecognized Taiwan. Both countries are essential for the world economy, meaning the conflict would affect markets. I hope it will not happen . However, this risk urged me to start a series of posts ' What would happen to asset_name if China attacks Taiwan? '
A brief: China is the second economy in the world by nominal GDP. Taiwan is the heart of semiconductor manufacturing for all industries across the globe.
In my opinion, Bitcoin today is a risk appetite indicator, which regularly mimics or outpaces changes in the notable stock indexes, e.g., S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. The risk realization would trigger risk aversion pushing the BTC price to the last local support level of $19000. The stop-loss is the previous local high of $24500. However, the level can slightly differ from the spot price. The main risk is conflict duration. The longer the conflict exists, the more sanctions I expect. I can't predict how long Taiwan can fight and what sanctions will be imposed. I doubt that sensitive restrictions would be imposed during the first days. I also doubt that the US will impose harsh sectoral sanctions if China takes over Taiwan quickly. If the conflict would last several months, I suppose bitcoin could drop significantly to $14000. The position holding period is 7 days to next Thursday. If the bad doesn't happen, it is better to close the short position. However, we do not know the date. Solely China knows the exact date if the plan exists. The risk could realize during the next 7 days or be postponed to next month or even later. If the risk realizes later, I expect the same effect on the BTC, and only target adjustments could be needed.
Additionally, the potential conflict would seriously weigh on crypto mining activity because of semiconductor manufacturing termination in Taiwan. A probable semiconductors' deficit leads to the rise of GPU's price in the midterm, elevating mining costs. Miners would have to adapt to the new reality.
I wish you peace!
Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
OSC issues sanctions against Bybit and KuCoinCanadian regulatory body, Ontario Securities Commission (OSC), has announced financial sanctions against two crypto exchanges. According to the details of the statement, the regulator leveled these sanctions against Bybit and KuCoin. In its statement, the regulatory body mentioned that both entities were guilty of running an unregistered crypto entity while providing services to residents of the country and violating some of the securities laws.
The exchanges were slammed with financial charges
In the announcement made available some hours ago, OSC mentioned that it had explicitly prayed a court to grant an order to remove KuCoin from the capital market. In addition to that sanction, the regulator also said it had fined the crypto exchange over $1.5 million for misdeeds. In the same vein, the regulator also mentioned that it was able to come to a gentleman’s agreement with Bybit, but the exchange also released more than $2 million in disgorgement.
In addition, the exchange was also levied with a payment of more than $7000 for all the efforts and financial resources that OSC used during the investigations. Although both firms were said to have gone against the rule of the securities commission, the body mentioned that Bybit was the only one out of the two that wanted to correct its error. During the investigation, it opened a direct line to talk to the body and discussed how it could go about the registration process.
Bears Controlling Dumping To 40K!!Weekly Time-frame
We are currently sitting in the breakout area of the double bottom. If we don't hold this area we can expect more to the downside. If we hold this area we can expect a massive pump again but this has little to no probability at all. Bearish has more bearing to happen than the bullish scenario as we can see the SPX Russel 2000 stocks are dropping. Bitcoin is just following the bigger market.
1D Time-frame
We have a bearish Engulfing in daily time-frame which we can expect more to the downside. To be bullish we need to go above $44,270 to $44,723 and make it as base then we can expect a rally base rally. For now where the pump started is now going back from it $40,972. Today is weekend so do not expect much volume. I suggest to trade alt coins during weekend.
4H Time-frame
We are having a drop base drop at the moment. Expect a retest to $43,118 before it drops again but if the trend is strong We might bounce only up to $42,769. AO is bearish still. RSI is also bearish.
1H Time-frame
How to trade
Entry $42,769, $43,249, $43,746
SL 1-5% from whole portfolio $47,186
Leverage 10x-11x
Use 1% from whole portfolio.
TP 1 $42,527
TP 2 $42,089
TP 3 $41,106
TP 4 $40,881
TAYOR
DYOR
NFA
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Brent Crude May Form a Big Bullish TriangleA few days ago, America announced the uncapping of strategic oil reserves, which are now at the lowest level in the last 20 years - about 570 million barrels. Regular sales of 1 million barrels per day of oil will lead to their reduction by another third.
But today oil quotes are getting more expensive again, as the sale of oil from the US strategic reserve will not compensate for the Russian oil that has fallen out if the calls of French President Emmanuel Macron are heard and EU countries impose an embargo on imports from Russia.
These new sanctions should target coal and oil, Macron said. Some European governments insist on imposing additional sanctions against Russia.
I will not claim that Europe is hearing Ukraine to provocations and has already chosen Russia in advance as the culprit. The problem is that governments do not want to admit to themselves that the rejection of Russia's hydrocarbons is a big damage to the EU. Russian gas accounts for about 40% of natural gas imports to the EU, and oil accounts for about 25%, Sky News writes.
The Germans have revised their views on "green energy" (abandoning nuclear power plants, switching to wind power). According to many economists, the ban on Russian energy supplies will lead to a reduction in German GDP by more than 5%. This decline will be the second largest since the Second World War.
The German Economic Institute stated that the imposition of an embargo on oil and gas would lead to incalculable risks.
In my opinion, the chances of introducing new sanctions are quite high, which means that oil prices will not only not fall, but may also continue to grow in the medium term. I assume the formation of a large bullish triangle on the daily chart with the stability of the growing trend, which started from the beginning of December 2021.
A breakthrough for the maximum on March 24 will be an unambiguous signal for further price growth. Although the first signal to increase will be received if the triangle resistance line is overcome, which falls in the area of $ 117-118 per barrel.
PS Does America really want to suppress the rise in gasoline prices? or is she confused about her plans?
ZEC Continues upward in wedge about to breakoutWatch ZEC continue to rise as the Russians use ZEC to bypass sanctions. ZECs anonymous transactions make it a preferred crypto currency for the Oligarchs looking to work around the sanctions (also Pirate Chain is the other). Over the next 18 days I see ZEC going up another 20+% and then it will cross over the upper resistance and continue upward to $300. UNLESS sanctions are lifted. If the sanctions are lifted get out of the privacy cryptos at least for a little while as the Oligarchs pull their money out as they won't need to use it any longer.
Bears Are Giving Up Already?Weekly Time-frame
Awesome Oscillator is already bullish we printed green volume for weekly volume. We are about to test the supply area were we always get a rejection, if we hold this time it can flip it and turn it to base and start another rally to the upside.
1D Time-frame
Greed and Fear index is now #31 which is fear only. seems like we are holding on this area and we are gonna start pumping again as we have printed a bullish engulfing candle pattern.
RSI is also bullish above its Moving Average (MA). We are currently resting in the demand zone that is why we are bouncing as we touch the $42,000. Supply Area that needs to turn as Demand Area is in $43,000 - $46,000. If we touch the demand area we can expect more to the upside.
4H Time-frame
Our signal last night is now in profit. We just hit the entry in $42000 now its starting to be profitable. We are hoping that this base demand area holds so we can pump and break another Supply Area. RSI and AO are all bullish.
Long position liquidated reach up to $66M which cleared the way to the upside.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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ZEC is in a wedge, but should break through the top resistanceIf you look at what PirateChain is doing after the sanctions were placed on Russia, you will see privacy crypto is in high demand. As the war drags on and the sanctions continue to strangle the Russian Oligarchs they will continue to use Privacy CryptoCoins to move money. ZEC has already had good upward movement after the sanctions were put in place. Even if they move toward the top resistance line that is a good return, but I believe it will break through that resistance if the sanctions are still in place. Just watch the news and get out if it looks like sanctions are going to be lifted. Yes I know this isn't the way to play the wedge, but with real world events I believe this is the time to get in and maximize profits.
JPOW, Fed rates, and New Signs of Life in the Crypto Space!The Fed has threatened to raise interest rates two more times this year. But will they? That and news signs of life on the charts. For the first time since November, I am starting to see small indications that the bulls are about to make some moves!
Will sanctions on Russia backfire on the U.S.? What about crypto- Sanctions, led by the U.S. in hopes of punishing Russian aggression may NOT have the impact the U.S. is hoping for? Could they actually backfire?
- Saudi Arabia rejects Biden's request for talks on increasing oil production and instead announces that they are considering accepting Yuan instead of dollars for Chinese Oil sales (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed)
- India's move to "explore" alternative payment channels with Russia to avoid sanctions (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed)
- With official inflation numbers running at 8% and climbing the Federal Reserve is being forced to raise interest rates for the first time since 2018 (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed). Multiple rate hikes are projected. The last time rates were raised markets crashed and the Fed quickly reversed course. This leads many to say that the Fed won't really raise rates as much as projected, because the market won't let them, but what these people don't seem to get is that in order to finance the U.S. national debt, new debt has to be sold every year. As inflation rises countries like Saudi Arabia become more and more inclined to invest in assets that show a return or at least hold their value. This means that unless you raise the rates to a level that offsets inflation many investors will move elsewhere and you won't be able to take on new debt. Central banks are cornered. Once they start raising rates government budgets will quickly hit a wall as interest payments on existing debt become unmanageable.
- This may devastate the dollar along with the U.S. economy, but it may be great for crypto
The US Markets Have Not Fallen yet
It's make me angry! All this situation around Ukraine. I'm from Russia and I'm not ashamed of it. Although there has come a period that it is not safe to be Russian now. And I'm worried about my kids because their mama is Russian. My husband from Germany and we live in Germany now and it is here that anti-Russian sentiments are especially strong!
I always considered myself intelligent and thoughtful, it's not for nothing that I work as a financial analyst. But now I feel confused.
If I would stay in my country I believe that I will have more opportunities to use this situation but I'm here. I'm sure that european governments understand what they doing. And also they represent what kind of reverse effect sanctions against Russia will give them.
The United States has imposed a ban on the import of oil, a number of petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal from the Russian Federation. The British Foreign Ministry called on Europe to extend sanctions on oil and gas from Russia.
I will not say that many people will lose their jobs in Russia because of sanctions, and life in general will become more expensive. But it will be hard in Europe, too.
Have you seen gasoline prices yet? In Germany, the cost of 1 liter has increased to 2.30 euros, in the Netherlands it is already 2.5 euros. Ads appeared in stores stating that there are restrictions on buying products in one hand. And it is only beginning…
If you ask how did the sanctions affect me? I will answer that for the third week my work has been frozen because there are no traiding in russian stock markets. Some of the clients I work with are also from Russia, their accounts are also blocked, my bank card is disconnected from SWIFT and I can no longer use it until I return to Russia.
What else? Oh, yes, the dollar and euro exchange rates against the ruble have increased by 38% and 30% over the past two weeks.
The news that I read and analyze in Russia and Europe differ as black and white. I will not say who is right, the truth is in the middle. But why does everyone forget and do not want to admit that this whole situation in Ukraine happened thanks to the support of America? And that the Russians have been oppressed for 8 years? And that in general, the United States has always benefited from war on the territory of other countries and it is convenient to write off miscalculations and failures in the economy under this idea.
I apologize for this post, but I can't stay silent anymore. I want other people to think about what is really happening and that Russia is not the first country to face an economic blockade, there were Iran and Venezuela. So the point, as always, is who benefits from it!
The US markets have not fallen yet, look at the weekly chart of the S& P500 and remove all illusions, the nearest target is 3600-3800 points.
EUR/USD - false breakout of key levels!In the face of sanctions the supply chain in Europe suffers, which leads to a decrease in the economy of the whole EU.
EUR starts to fall against USD, as the EU economy takes a bigger hit than the U.S. economy.
The price is now testing the global trend line and big trading range. If this trend line cannot resist the sellers' pressure, it will test the key level at $1.06. If there will no strong support, the next key level is $1.03.
False breakout is possible in both cases, so watch for updates on the channel, where we will give all the relevant update.
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P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
BTC is finally going back to 50K?Weekly Time-frame
BTC pumping hard, thanks to FUD and the fear and greed index in #22 today, its the best time to pump the coin. Rejection area stays in $44,051.40 if we break this rejection area the next rejection area is in $48,803. This would make our long position in profit. We are still inside Ichimoku Cloud which is still neutral looking forward to break above the cloud and make it the next support area.
1D Time-frame
We broke inside the cloud and also broken the Tenken Sen Resistance. We shall see if we can break the Senkou Span B Resistance and test the previous Resistance @ $44,059. The 144 EMA also is waiting in that level. it is turning to flattening slope which would give us more chance to break it to the upside.
4H Time-frame
4H time-frame is now pumping from the RSVVB indicator, we can see the end of the constriction that is now making a massive move to the upside. We hope this pump is enough to break the $45,000 resistance level. Awesome Oscillator is now in positive zone which means there is more to the upside. We just printed 1 positive volume.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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$GLOP - ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUT Wrote about this stock earlier today or yesterday.
Continued volatility within LNG should make commodity transporters like $GLOP skyrocket.
Large cup and handle and ascending triangle shows this name is getting ready for it's 15 minutes of fame.
$URNM - Available At a DiscountRussian forces recklessly shelled a nuclear plant last week.
This led to a sell-off over concerns that countries might take a step back from nuclear power.
This turned out to be an emotional overreaction. The plant was completely safe, and only an administrative building was damaged.
Uranium plays are now available at a relative discount.
According to Reuters, "The United States relies on Russia and its allies Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for roughly half of the uranium powering its nuclear plants - about 22.8 million pounds (10.3 million kg) in 2020 - which in turn produce about 20% of U.S. electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the World Nuclear Association."
"There is no uranium production or processing in the United States currently, though several companies have said they would like to resume domestic production if they can sign long-term supply contracts with nuclear power producers. Texas and Wyoming have large uranium reserves.
Australia and Canada also have large reserves of uranium and there is ample processing capability there and in Europe. But Russia and its satellites are the cheapest producers."
So with the White House considering sanctions on the cheapest available uranium, the price of this commodity will undoubtedly rise over coming weeks and months.
According to World Nuclear Association, "Russia has substantial economic resources of uranium, with about 9% of world reasonably assured resources plus inferred resources up to $130/kg – 505,900 tonnes U (2014 Red Book)."
This seems like a great play for a move back above $100.
EXTREME FEAR BUT BULL RUN?Weekly Time-frame
Weekend dump in. Greed & Fear index is in Extreme Fear (22). We can expect more to the upside from this Extreme Fear. Liquidations reach 242M for the long position which is significantly bullish. We might not expect much movement this weekend as stock markets are close. But we would most likely see pumping in the coming days ahead.
1D Time-frame
We are back again to crossing the March 14 Ichimoku Cloud. It can punch through anywhere in the cloud but the March 14 is the easiest way to break through. We are still printing higher low and we need to hold the line or else Bitcoin will have hard time again breaking to the upside. Red volume in Awesome Oscillator (AO) means we are in correction from the pump, looking forward for it to print Green Volume in the following days.
4H Time-frame
We are now below the cloud, crossed from the thinnest part of the cloud. Support area is found through our Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR). If $38,648 is broken, we will expect more downside. If it holds, then expect it will be the bottom and start pumping again. The next support to continue the up-trend and higher low is in $38,328, $37,758.
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FEAR, TIME TO ADD LONG POSITION.Weekly Time-frame
We are still bullish, and inside the Ichimoku Cloud Tenken Sen Support Area is in $40,467. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still bullish. We got rejected in the final strand of EMA Ribbon so we went inside the could, and we will still retest the resistance area soon.
1D Time-frame
EMA 144 and 233 was a strong resistance level, we got rejected and even broke the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou A. Bouncing area is $40,594. If we still break the support of $40,010. if it doesn't hold, next support is at $39,056.
Greed and fear Index is 33 back to fear.
alternative.me
Liquidation is $222M mostly long position. That would be a potential bullish in the coming days as all long position gets closed so it will pump again. We are still expecting it to form higher low to continue the up-trend.
4H Time-frame
We have broken Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen support of Ichimoku Cloud. Next support is 144EMA and 200MA are both located at $40,745. EMA 233 support is in $40,961. 4H TF still in the Retracement period in our Awesome Oscillator.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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SACTION? TO THE MOON!Monthly Time-frame
Bullish Harami Printed!!! Breakout to the upside is in play! Higher low is printed confirmed! Watch out for confirmed bulls back in the ball game. Russian sanction on Swift Banking was Bullish for Bitcoin as Russians transferred their funds to Cryptocurrency.
Weekly Time-frame
Bullish week, double bottom, Relative Strength Index (RSI) Bullish. Higher low, breaking the previous high. Awesome Oscillator (AO) printing green volume and Bullish RSI. Breaking the Ichimoku Cloud soon! If rejected at $44,070 it’s a good time to open a short for a retest at $40,972.87.
1D Time-frame
Cheers for the bulls! We have broken the ichimoku Cloud, and made it a support, it looks weak breakout but will see if we can hold it as a Support. We are now ready to open a Positive Volume tomorrow.
4H Time-frame
RSI is overbought, which is normal during an up-trend. Broken the cloud, printed a strong volume AO. We are done with the butterfly constriction now we are moving to the upside.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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