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Balanced View of SPX 500I think this rally has surprised everybody, this outlook show a symmetrical balanced view of what could take place in the coming weeks, there is harmony amongst the madness perhaps! I am expecting a rejection around 2750 this is the 200 DMA moving average on the daily chart and correlates with a trendline resistance 'highlighted'....The trigger for the short could be NFP data tomorrow at 8.30ET/ 1.30pm GMT...I will then be looking for an inverted double bottom to balance the chart ...and then retest previous highs in the spring.......take care folks.......
SP:SPXShort
by Trendhopper
SP1! Still a Buy Dips Market - Long and Strong S&P 500 Update SP1! Chart 12:36 Bst 07:36 Est 22nd September The S&P has given back 8 or so points from the high reached at 2945. ideally it will come back to 2935 around the open and bounce again from there to give another entry point. This still looks positive whilst it holds at 2935 and above. S&P 500 Update SP1! Chart 10:10 Bst 05:10 Est September 22nd The S&P has continued its rally overnight and is now probing the next (still sketchy) resistance level at 2945. Still difficult to identify a stop level under this long shot as there's still been no consolidation overnight. Can either close out and take the 27 points profit from 2918 long or raise the stop to 2930 and let it run some more. If you choose to close out the long rather than hang on to a notional stop be ready to follow long again from lower down towards 2930 if we see it later - otherwise be ready to follow long again on a break above 2945 with stops 2 points lower looking for a test of the upper parallel at around 2964 as the next likely point of resistance above 2945, (amended). Resistance potential: 2945, 2964/upper parallel, 3005, 3209. 18:32 Bst 13:32 est September 21st A stellar day for the major markets has seen the S&P blast higher all day - amazing if there's no profit taking towards the close. Even if there is am staying long towards 2946 as we should have a good day tomorrow - at least to begin with before boiling over. Some may prefer to close out because the stop has to stay under the 2916 line otherwise as there's been no correction so far to be able to raise the stop through the day. This break is good and signals further upside to around 2945 initially. But has more in it to 3005 and then 3209 before the year is out. This is obviously best guess from here - we're in deep uncharted waters - but this break looks good for the medium term. 13:06 Bst 08:06 Est September 21th Long story short it's still a buy dips market - it was OK to get long again once the 2913 line was broken to the upside a little earlier today but the stop has to stay under 2910 for now if so. Otherwise take profits at 2919 but be ready get long again once 2920 is broken above. If flat it's OK to wait for the next signal from here which looks like a break above 2920 looking for 2946.
SLong
by sumastardon
SPXRalph Elliot speaking from beyond the grave.... Typically speaking, wave 4 retraces 23-38%. We are on an extended wave 5 of wave 3. Those 2 rectangles are measurements: 1.618 x wave 1, 2.618 x wave 1. Wave 3 typically terminates around 1.618 wave 1 (watch that 3000 area. It may not even reach it, but if it did and hit the top of the 2.618 box, that's a sell all day. I could go down to the last wave and explain it better but you guys, but you don't pay me enough... Just kidding, I'm lazy. Commodities are down. Look at Silver, Platinum, Natural Gas even. If stock market goes into wave 4 retrace, money will be moved to safer investments perhaps. In fact, I feel that I have pretty much all markets sewn up at this point.
SP:SPX
by thillygoosth
5
SPX.. ReadI believe us to be on a wave 5, but of a wave 3. The question is, what kind of pattern will we get. That yellow 1.618 circled? That is drawn from the very beginning (properly). That 1.618 extension is drawn as Y2K being the beginning of the wave 2 flat pattern which was completed in 2008 (when everyone thought the Great Depression was back, hehe). 3000 price level is a key Fibonacci level. With that said, the question is will we get a running flat? Ending diagonal? There is definitely some trend fib overlap at our fork if price reaches that level without major pullback, but considering we are breaking highs we can get a drop anytime (even if just a correction for a runner). But wave 4 usually does a 23-38% retrace of wave 3. You see the levels. I hope price doesn't run too high, would prefer 23%. And keep in mind there are many different patterns that can arise but fib wise, we may get something to the tune I have drawn. I expect up and down movement. I believe if it shoots up hard breaking way above 3000.... It is no bueno. Then we could even get into talking about the dow and countries going to the gold standard and commodity pricing such as silver, gold and platinum, but I think that is enough for one night.
SP:SPX
by thillygoosth
SandP 500 Index Head and Shoulders Formation SandP 500 SPX500USD The head and shoulders formation mentioned in earlier posts has duly formed its right shoulder over the last 24 hours or so - it's higher than it should be for a perfect H&S but nevertheless it still looks quite powerful. It carries with it a minimum downside target at 7242 which is close to the fixed support line at 2740. It was a sell once the neck-line broke at 2797 back to the 2790 line for a quick scalp - sorry, was too busy with Bitcoin update to get an S&P update out quickly enough. Right now it's holding up from a low at 2789 but the counter-rally cannot be trusted. The mood is still febrile, animal spirits to the fore. Earning season makes for jumpiness, not helped by Trump's level playing-field mantra playing out across the airwaves. It's time to look for the next best opportunity from here... Ideally the S&P will rally further back towards the neck line at 2797-2800 range around the US open before falling away again to the downside target. And if we don't see the counter rally as above we need to be ready to short once the 2787 level is broken with stops above here by 4 points or so. We should get some action today. Get ready! *For updates to major markets in real time over the Summer hiatus please see link to Global Markets at top-left of main page. 31st July Update We also have Apple numbers after the close which should give some succour to the bulls today. It can therefore counter rally to 2809 and above to the parallel immediately above it at likely best before it comes off again. Eventually it should break the little dynamic underpinning the current counter rally and fall away to 2796 at least and more likely to the 2790 line where it should bounce again. A quick scalp at likely best. If so it will start to form a potential head and shoulders - perhaps waiting for Apple numbers - which may then go on to create the right shoulder. Still too sketchy right now to know that though. At any rate cannot trust the rally yet - at least until we see a restest and double bottom form at 2796. So far this looks like a dead cat bounce. Was hoping for better clarity here, looking for a better/bigger short from higher up. But Apple's figures may just upset that apple cart and muddy the waters even further. Looks like scalps at best again so far today : (
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by sumastardon
2
S&P 500. Updated chart. Larger Triangle or Double Three As I promised in my earlier post here is an update with the two possible scenarios. First of all I would like to focus your attention on the dashed parallel trendline resistance (yellow). Price was rejected right at that resistance shaping reversal Doji candle on the Weekly chart. If this upmove has been finished (breakdown below red support is needed to confirm it) then I can see two options of further price development. 1) Larger Triangle. It still could be a Triangle but of the larger size (orange marks and blue zigzag). It perfectly fits with the trendline support (yellow). 2) WXY Double Three. Another option is more painful as price could drop to 2400 as marked with the white zigzag. It implies the breakdown of the yellow support and this should relax the market deeply before the autumn comes or even later. I heard once that 2018 could be a NON-performing year for US stocks and this scenarios confirm it. Let's live and see
OANDA:SPX500USD
by aibek
7
S&P 500 Index: SPX looks ready to rally back to highsS&P 500 Index SPX This chart shows an island reversal at the top, created by the first exhaustion gap atth etop of the chart, followed by a continuation or breakaway gap which led into yesterday's waterfall decline. we wer e looking for a decline to 2607 - the low was 2593, some 14 points out. Close but no cigar. As with the Dow this index has collapsed 10% (2584 is 10% off the top), within 9 points exactly. In 2 days. Fast, sharp two day declines are a sign of a strong market. Additionally, the S&P has touched long term dynamic support at the nadir and has left spikes off it. Can get long again on dips now looking for a retest of the highs. Stops below 2640 for smallish loss if wrong from here.
SP:SPXLong
by sumastardon
possible top in sight for S&P, end to the trump rally?Based on trading range targets and and resistance at the top of the trend channel line, profit taking and short positions may be taken round these levels round 2480.0. if the S&P gets up here the likelyhood of testing 2500 is a real possibility. The S&P could then test the bottom of the shorter term channel and may even go further to test the bottom of the long term channel. with the market being as strong as it is at the moment, and at the top of its channel shorting can be a risky strategy. i will be watching these levels closely for the bears to show some strength before considering a short position. At the moment any attempt by the bears have been bought by the bulls.
TVC:SPXShort
by spacefrog
Dow and S&P 500: DOWI SPX500: Super-long-term Chart and analysisDOW S&P 500 ALL World Markets (except Commodities) Super-long Term Analysis: Dow Stripped Bare - How Long Can This Keep Going On? Back To The Future or Forward to the Past: What the Past can tell us about the future... People talking about stretched valuations need to start stretching their own imaginations a little by looking back into the past for a guide to the future. Working on the simple principle that basic human nature has never changed and that investors still feel fear and greed in exactly the same way investors experienced those same emotions 100 and 200 and 2000 years ago, we can see that in the past 110 years from 1907 the Dow goes through 4 prolonged 14 to 20 year periods of sideways movement - followed by 3 explosive moves upward lasting a minimum of 8 years, then 16 years steadily upwards and the 3rd golden-age lasting for 18 years. The minimum return over those periods was 610% and the maximum 1500% in the last great bull campaign up to the last day of 1999. So if you think this is crazy now, you just haven't really lived yet, that's all! If we's been living in 1925/6 we'd be saying exactly the same things then as now...'Wooo, this index is up 3 times from the low at 64, it's ridiculous.' Kind of like now. The Dow went on to double again, up over 6 times from that point before collapsing again. So 666 x 6 = 3996 on S and P and 6 times the Dow low at 6349 = 38,094. These are minimum upside targets. We could go up 15 times from the lows FYI: 666x15 = 9990 for S&P. For the Dow the number is 95,235. These are the facts of the matter. What you do with them is up to you. Strangely the commodity cycle works the other way - more on that next week.
DJ:DJILong
by sumastardon
1
S and P and Vix seasonal trade approachingS and P 500 2 Trends 2 Trades Seasonal factors are beginning to show on S and P now. Over the last 20 years May to October periods have produced a correction of between 5% and 41% in every year without exception. The average loss per period was 14.9%. For the last 7 years if you'd bought the S and P on 16th October each year and held for 6.5 months until selling on the last trading day of April (before entering Vix positions in June for 3/4 months instead) and then buying again on October 16 the following year and repeating the process every year since 2010 - that the S and P would have returned 1289 points and 100.4% profit, rising from 1175 to 2390 (October 16 to end April 2017). Interestingly, had you remained fully invested in the S and P over this ENTIRE period the return would have been 1215 points, 74 points less - so being invested in the S and P over just 6.5 months in each 12 month period yields HIGHER returns than being being fully invested over the entire period. The stats are telling us something pretty clear here...smart money lightens off after earnings season, it sells into strength, to the...less smart - and then buys back off the same people come the Fall (no pun intended). There's a pattern here. It's time we all recognised it for what it is. And maybe join in. Here's a fairly simple but winning strategy for Summer/Fall... The other side of this trade was to buy the Vix each June and sell at 35% to 50% profit each time limit level is struck (limit levels initiated at same time as purchase, which is itself an order to buy around 11.3 on nearest dated futures right now, but will hopefully come a little lower still in June) - by playing this game each year over the last 6 years the Vix would have returned a minimum of 50% on 6 out of 6 of those years - so 300% minimun return and the astonishing figure of 1132% return on 6 Vix trades when compounded. Rather better than the flat returns offered by the S and P over the corresponding period. If you get this, consider buying Vix futures (nearest dated) in June, seasonal low, for 3/4 months and don't be scared of it - only be scared of the Vix from November to May...from June to October it's your friend - if you can treat it like a schizophrenic and know when it's likely to go wild you'll get to like it more and stop running scared of it, that's the truth. Downside is 10%, maybe 15% max from 11.3 on nearest dated Vix futures, but wait until June/July, as probability says that's the best month to go long Vix - what other 'investment' can you make where the downside risk is close to certain (as certain as you can be in any investment, at least), that cannot ever go trade to zero, and has beautiful seasonality just about to come into play? The other big secret to trading the Vix is not to bother chasing those highs. Only a fool would even try. Lower your expectations and you'll get a near-certain result. Just be happy with between 35% and 50% returns over 3-4 months and this trade will always work out (gotta factor in 3 to 4 months roll-overs costing 0.4 to 0.5% each time but that's fine. You EXPECT that and you cover your backside with enough margin to handle anything up to 15% downside in the very near term). And then you wait for human nature to revert to mean. Not complicated unless you figure human nature changed all of a sudden. Then this strategy is doomed. But since human nature in investment hasn't changed one jot since we first crawled out of the swamp it seems unlikely to change anytime soon. Your choice. Has human nature changed? If yes, stay away from the Vix. None of this means that the S and P HAS to decline from here, just that probability says that this index struggles over the Summer and usually falls in October or November and has a 50% chance of making an interim low in August over the last 6 years. In the last 6 years the Vix made it's annual low in June once, in July 3 times, in August once and September once.
FX:SPX500Long
by sumastardon