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Sandp500

Potential S&P 500 ScenarioIt's been a while since I shared anything like this... most of the last few things were experimental historical models... This is all based in Fibonacci, both price and time... this would have us peaking at about 3450 around late September 2020... Though I don't have the count posted with it, it is based in Elliott Wave as well... The EW concept here is an extended wave 1, with 3 being 0.786 of 1 and 5 being 0.786 of 3 - which leads to waves 3+5 equaling wave 1 (typical when 1 is extended)... Just thought I'd share what I was looking at
SP:SPXLong
by J-Streak
The 2020 Presidential Election (Pat's Crystal Ball Vision)On this cold wintry night in North East USA, I trek through the wet snow, and down the rock wall through the rabies ridden ravine of plastic and brush, close to the steaming waters of the Passaic River.. ONLY THERE is where I gathered my supplies for the future eyes. A nuclear salamander, a deformed frog, a defective exhaust pipe, a bit of river pool slime.. everything I needed. A flash freeze, to an immediate smelting, A slow mix with a pinch of salt.. And as I looked into my crystal ball This is all I saw The older I get the more cynical I am of politics. I'm not one to argue about them, but I definitely have more of an opinion than I did when I was 18. I don't know enough to say who should do what or where or when... I just like to look at charts.. Opinions from all sides are welcome
SP:SPX
by CadillacPat
The S&P 500 Index Monthly And The 9.618 Fibonacci ExtensionHello Traders, Here is my view on the S&P 500 Index. I have shown the monthly chart which goes back to the start of the S&P Index as far as I know. From here I have used Elliot Wave theory to mark primary wave 1/2 around the 1930's crash. After the Great Depression to "stimulate" the economy the government first cut dollar ties to gold. Then in 1971 the dollar left the gold standard. The market went on a massive bull run for 67 years with gains approximating 32,500% This bull run topped in 2000 which was the year of the dot com bubble. I have marked that peak as the top of primary wave 3. The market then went through a brutal ABC correction with the dot com crash bottoming in 2002. Then when things seemed to be on the way back up the housing market crisis happened in 2007. This series of events was devastating for the economy and is widely considered one of the worst financial disasters since 1930. The economy has not recovered properly since. I have put a series of fib sets on this chart which are quite interesting. When price approaches the 8.618 + range this is usually a danger zone. Price is approaching the 9.618 extension on the black impulse set so I am expecting something to happen here. For a wave 5 this might look a bit small but lets see. If price does push past that fib set then the bear wall is next resistance.
SP:SPX
by WickHunter
SPY EOY ForecastI think a leg to the 320 area or back down to the 303 area on the SPY are likely. Personally I have a bias towards the 320 side as we approach the anticipated completion of the US/China trade deal. Whether we actually get the deal or not is a coin flip in my opinion but I do expect the market to continue rising in anticipation. If it falls through then we will very likely see 303 and possibly lower and if we get confirmation of a deal (and it's a good one) we will likely print 320 and beyond in early 2020.
AMEX:SPY
by BrownBearTrades
2
S&P 500 Price Action Analysis | The Direct ProportionSP500 is still consolidating above the Range High and needs to break out the Key OB. The direct proportion between the volume and the price action (higher highs and higher lows) is indicating that this distribution isn’t done until it reaches its targets. Entry: 2881 SL: 2719 TP-1: 3089 TP-2: 3219 R/R: 2.09 ‪Please let me know if you have any suggestions or any ideas to add. I can also give you more detailed explanation for this specific trade setup.‬ ‪The ideas published here are not financial advices. ‬
FX:SPX500Long
by CompositeTrader
S & P Breakout incoming 3,300 BLOW OFF TOP INCOMINGLooking for a breakout of this rising wedge to new ALL TIME HIGHS. My target is 3,300 or close to it then going to close my position or keep a tight stop. Do all time highs in the S and P make sense with the Global slow down, manufacturing recession, Dow Transport crashing, isolationism around the globe, China economy slowing.... no, but greedy investors are looking ahead to stimulus, money printing, dollar devaluation to save us all. Will it work? Probably not, but that greedy money on wall street does not care. Take there money, BLOW OFF TOP INCOMING
SP:SPXLong
by noahkeene
12
S&P analysis; bullish structure but at an inflection pointWe are right at a level here, which is the log .618 of the local range and also the neckline of that previous broadening formation that can be indicative of a major top. I think this will be the level to break and close to potentially take out the ATH in the coming days/weeks. The current daily, if it were to close as is, would look like a bearish hanging man but not jumping to any conclusions yet as we appear to be in macro bullish structure (ascending triangle within larger ascending triangle) More detailed analysis here
OANDA:SPX500USD
by jthrasher
Buy targets on SPYOne of the best ways to outperform the market is to buy the S&P 500 (SPY) or a leveraged S&P 500 index fund (UPRO) and simply hold it for the long term. However, the price at which you enter such a buy-and-hold trade is extremely important. If you get a price that's 50% cheaper, you'll make 100% more money over the lifetime of the investment, because you'll have twice as many shares as you would have otherwise. This year is a great year to enter a trade like that, because the market is so weak. But you never know how low prices will go, so the best strategy is to scale in. Here are four relatively conservative buy targets for the S&P 500. These targets assume that we won't enter a full-scale recession this year, which is a big assumption. (Google "Federal government has dramatically expanded exposure to risky mortgages" to see why there's a lot of recession risk. A recession would be, by far, the best time to enter the market for a buy and hold play.) I was pleased this morning to see the market bounce hard from my first buy target. I managed to pick almost the exact bottom to get into the UPRO leveraged fund! We probably will see more downside later this month, however, and I've got plenty of money in cash to take advantage if it falls that far. I like to triple my holdings at each successive buy target, so I've only acquired a relatively small position so far.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2
Something's wrong? S&P500 vs XLY:XLP + a history lesson/reviewWelcome! Today we'll have a look at an interesting development in the S&P500, as well as look back at some past history making events. First up, I'm not predicting anything. I'm not in the business of predictions because it's a fools errand. I trade what happens, and until something happens all of this is academic. However, I am in the business of making money, and that means managing risk. When we see something in the markets that makes our little internal alarm bells start ringing, we should factor that into our decision making going forward. Secondly, this isn't a unique analysis/comparison. I'm sure there's lots of articles out there covering a similar correlation between these two markets, so I'm not claiming originality. Alright, let's go! So we're looking at a correlation between: The S&P500, the behemoth of equity markets and benchmark of US economic healthy/activity (orange on the main chart). XLY:XLP - a custom symbol that looks at the relationship between the Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY), and the Consumer Staples Sector (XLP). In a nutshell, if this symbol (black on the charts) is moving up, consumers are spending more on discretionary items, and vice versa if it's moving down. The theory is that if consumers are spending on discretionary (read: luxury) items, they are feeling good about their situation and the situation of the economy going forward. The opposite is true if they aren't. Why is this comparison interesting? Basically, these two symbols/markets should move in sync, and do have a strong historic correlation. A rising S&P500 is a sign of economic strength, which means XLY:XLP should be rising along with it. The REALLY interesting things happen when that correlation goes away. Okay, we're going to commence with a review of previous correlation divergences, and a look at what happened to each symbol. By the end of our review you should have an idea of where I'm going with this, but I'll cover it at the end as well. I've created a second chart that is numbered so you can follow which market cycle/time period I'm talking about: 1. 2007-2009 GFC: Okay, let's start with the biggie. I won't go into the history or the fundamentals behind the GFC, so let's look at our charts. It's important to begin by noting that this was the longest correlation divergence of the last few decades - I'll leave you to decide whether that's significant or not. What we can see on our chart is XLY:XLP peaking in late 2004, and forming a series of lower highs until the bottom of the markets fell out in 2007-2008. Contrast that with what happened to the S&P500 in the same period; a slow, steady rise, culminating in a peak in October 2007. What really jumps out at me from studying that period is how a week or two after the S&P500 peaked (was anyone calling it that back then?) the XLY:XLP symbol made multi-year lows (since 2003). Basically, if we take our theory that a rising XLY:XLP is a sign of economic strength, then something was seriously wrong with the US economy from 2004-2007. Of course, we now know that there was. Lastly, because it'll become important later on... the momentum indicator on the main chart (it's based on the S&P500) shows a distinctive pattern seen prior to all market corrections over the last two decades. A series of lower highs; indicative of failing momentum in the market. 2. Market Bottom - 2009: The S&P500 bottomed out in early 2009 after falling 50% in 1.5 years. What we can see from our comparison is another correlation divergence, but a bullish one this time. XLY:XLP formed higher lows, and combined with a S&P500 momentum divergence of the same nature, it was a clear signal that markets had started reversing. I encourage you to check out that period in more detail; in particular, have a look at how XLY:XLP started rising sharply a few weeks before the S&P500 followed suit. It's no secret that the Consumer Discretionary Sector is a market leader in expansions, and that was a perfect sign of how you can use it to time markets - which some people say is impossible! 3. 2011 Downturn: Markets rose steadily for two years until early 2011, when the S&P formed the first of what would be three (roughly) equal peaks. Looking back at XLY:XLP, we can see that it actually topped out at that first peak in February 2011. From there it fell steadily, while the S&P500 sorted itself out and was ready to fall (read: smart money). Markets fell roughly 15-20% before recovering in late 2011. 4. Minor drop? This one is pretty interesting (well, I find it interesting). We can see another correlation divergence in 2014, when the XLY:XLP symbol formed lower highs, while the S&P500 kept rising. What I find interesting is the fact that this didn't lead to any sustained drop... However, if you look at the S&P500 in September 2014, you can see it actually fell quite heavily, and sharply, but recovered quickly. In fact, at it's peak it fell 10% in a month - it was the largest fall since 2011. 2014-2016 - Crazy town: Okay, let's get to one of the stranger periods in the S&P500 over the last few decades. Jumping back to our charts we can see that the S&P500 topped out in (roughly) mid 2015. However, XLY:XLP actually formed higher highs from March 2014 to November 2015. That latter peak was actually formed on a lower high on the S&P500 - clearly, something was askew. Sure enough, markets went haywire, and had two sharp corrections in what was effectively a sideways movement for the entirety of June 2015 - July 2016. One interpretation is the consumers were blindsided by the falls, and it was linked to other factors (do some research, it'll be interesting!). Note: Look at that distinctive bearish momentum pattern on the S&P500... 6. Recovery within a recovery: The S&P500 reached it's 2015 high in July of 2016, but we can see that XLY:XLP symbol was far more sluggish in that period. Fun fact: it wouldn't reach its 2015 high until late in 2017. However, the really interesting thing is that the true S&P500 market expansion didn't occur until the XLY:XLP symbol had its largest single week rise in years during the last week of October 2016. We even see a small correction in the S&P500 in the weeks prior to that. Once consumer discretionary spending recovered and surged, so did the S&P500 for the next 3-4 years (until now!). 7. Today - what's going on? We now reach more recent history. As we all know, the S&P500 has surged higher over the last few years, breaking records along the way. We had a mini crash in late 2018, which was quickly recovered, and today the index sits at all-time highs. Great? Well, yes... and no. My concern (and remember this isn't a prediction - it's an observation on potential risk factors), is two-fold: firstly, XLY:XLP has seriously diverged from the S&P500, and peaked in June of 2018. Since then it's fallen into a distinctive bearish pattern of lower highs, and shows no signs of recovering. Consumers aren't happy or confident for some reason (rising interest rates, trade-war, and Trump are some of my initial thoughts). Combine that with what is by now, I hope, a fairly distinctive and obvious bearish momentum pattern on the S&P500. Momentum has been falling for over a year now (since January 2018), and scarily mirrors previous significant market corrections/downturns... --------------------- Alright. So let's recap... We've had a look at some interesting patterns and correlations that can be found when you create a XLY:XLP symbol, and compare it to the S&P500 Index. We've examined previous market corrections, and hopefully drawn some interesting lessons that we can POTENTIALLY (I can't stress that enough) use going forward. So, what am I saying about the health of the S&P500? Well, nothing really. The market is still rising, and until it's not, that's the only factor that is relevant. Betting against a rising market (especially an intrinsically upward biased one such as the S&P500), is a recipe for disaster. What I am saying is that everything doesn't seem as rosy as the S&P500 would have us think. Consumers are hurting and/or worried, and that's not good for the health of the US economy. Whether that will result in any downward correction is anyone's guess. I'll sign off by saying that I remain long in equity markets. I've seen no sign of a proper correction underway, and in fact I won't until the day that markets fall heavily. I am, however, tightening by stop losses and adjusting my risk management procedures to potentially account for increased market volatility and bearish movements. Okay, that's all for today. It's already an essay. I hope you've learnt something, and found this moderately interesting! Let me know if you have any queries/comments/suggestions. All the best, DD
AMEX:XLY
by DreamsDefined
6
SP 500 ShortSp 500 Short Setup Reasoning: -Bearish ABCD Completion -Bearish Shark inside of it -1 Hr Uptrend already looks extended -Bearish Divergence on the Daily -Volume dropping on the daily Market is telling me to sell. Entry Trigger: Aggressive- Sell Limit @ 3026 (Shark Completion 1.13) Conservative- Wait for price to cross the Ema and break trendline support Stop Loss Reasoning: ATR should be at around 34 pips volatility when it reaches the limit order. Double that amount for stop loss Take Profit Reasoning: $2995 is where this bearish shark can switch to bullish 5-0 (50% fib) and we have a high volume node there which means it can act as support.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by elevatedinvestor
3
Stock Market Pullback and then Up Toward New All-Time-HighsI believe the markets will experience a minor pullback toward the weekly 50 day SMA levels (silver line) over the next couple of weeks. However, we should recover and move up to new all-time-highs by the end of the year. Current market conditions remind me of the cautiously optimistic sentiment in late-2016. Investors waiting in cash or short the market will feel pressure as markets continue to grind higher, which may cause an epic move such as that seen in late-2016/2017. Despite some bearish sentiment among investors, I remain bullish on the American stock markets going into 2020.
SP:SPXLong
by TraderEddyY