S&P 500 Update: Losing upside momentum if it loses the parallelS&P 500 Now testing the target at 2399-2407 and looking tired. Short set-up from between 2402 and 2405 if touched with stop above 2410.
Sandp500
S&P500 - Thorough Analysis - Monthly ChartHey Everyone!
Today, I will be analysing S&P500 coming from Monthly chart, down to 1H chart.
As you can see SP500 has been on a good track of going higher and higher since the 2008 crash.
What we can see is after the 2009 dip it has achieved ATH's day after day.
Right now, we are aiming at 2500 - in my opinion this is a highly likely scenario. Now, I don't really like predicting crashes and things like that cause I rather trade than yell. But, if Trump's administration continues the way they are - implementation problems, misconduct, failure to follow through - then, as a first support level will be around the 2100. Obviously, if things start escalating bad we go to 1550 which has been the strongest resistance back in the past.
Let's see the Daily chart in the next idea.
S and P 500: More range trading in storeS and P 500: Some seasonal facts to help you decide on likely S and P direction from here over the Summer:
S and P 500 Highs and Lows since 2011
HIGH LOW
28.4.11 5.8.11 and 28.9.11
27.4.12 31.5.12 and 9.11.12
21.5.13 20.6.13 and 27.8.13 and 9.10.13
no May peak 6.8.14 and 15.10.14
18.5 15 20.8.15 and 28.9.15
19.4.16 19.1.16 and 10.2.16 and 27.6.16 (Brexit) and 8.11.16 (Trump)
HIGH Pattern: A significant high is made in a small window of 32 days between 19th April and 21st May in 5 of the last 6 years.
LOW Pattern: In EVERY year a low is made in a 6 week window between 28th September and 9th November.
3 lows in August = 50% of all years, 2 lows in June (but one was Brexit)
28th September = 2 lows (2011 and 2015)
9.10.13 and 15.10 14 - 5 days apart
9.11.12 and 8.11.16 - 2 days apart
So it's fairly clear that one should be looking to enter this trade from the long side in the 6 week window between 28th September and 9th November and to exit the trade in the 32 day window between 19th April and 21st May each year, in preparation for the Vix long trade the following month (see Vix comment)
For the purposes of this exercise we obviously have to choose an optimal date and so it's quite likely that you can analyse and finesse this part of the equation better than I can, but here I'm choosing the last trading day of April to exit and the 16th October as entry date. Once again I believe that the timing of entry (more so than exit) can be improved significantly using Techical indicators, again up for further discussion.
But sticking to the same entry end exit dates for the purposes of this exercise and for simplicity yields the following results over 7 years to date:
Being invested in the S and P from start of analysis from first buy on 216th October 2010 through to 30th April 2017 would have netted 1210 points in profit.
Being invested for 6.5 months from Mid October to end April the next year has yielded a return of 1289 points, so only 79 points more or just 11 points per year difference - but over 6 to 7 months, not 12 months each year. So the point is: NOTHING is lost by being out of the S and P 500 during the Summer months, as clearly shown for the last 7 years now.
This year there is at least a new paradigm: like it or not his name is Donald Trump. Maybe he can save the S and P from summer doldrums - but he's going to have deliver a new trick pretty soon if the S and P isn't going to get bored with the UnTruman Show over the summer and gradually sell off, culminating in a mini sell off, with a 50-50 chance that this will occur in August.
S and P 500 Update:a buy on weakness back to 2394-0 S and P 500 Despite it's reluctance to join in the Euro party this index still has a positive chart. Only a break below 2377 would change the near term outloook to bearish
S and P 500 Update How to handle the breakoutS and P is closed in London but the Dow is showing 30 points up whilst Dax is another 138 points higher at 12850. Nasdaq showing just 5 points up but no S and P trading. Nasdaq and Dow are still cheap..right here, right now. Why not make some money whilst you sleep tonight? Dow good for 21380, next chart - check IG index website for prices.
Amazon, are your responding?To me Amazon is a clearly heading for new heights, as the Coppock curve ( Eclipse) has just turned positive, also so has the Aroon oscillator, showing a positive trend has emerged. This is supported by the Cyclic lines showing the positive stock trend is just one of many. The 50 moving average is providing support, and the stock recently broke out of the sending triangle pattern. If you are thinking the stock is overvalued and how high can it possibly go? Then Buy and find out!
Has the Dow Recovered?To me this is pretty simple, the Dow was provided with support by the 50 Moving Average and appreciating, but the Coppock curve is still negative so I would wait till the 20,700 make to buy. Also the ADX Green Line has finally crossed over representing a new trend change. So I would buy until the Trendline resistance.
SandP 500 E-Mini Futures D CME Updated 3/15/2017Price has come to rest on the sliding parallel here near 2350 again bouncing up. Look to see if we can continue to the upside from here. If we break below 2350, 2300 is the next area to consider as support.
Mind boggling simple $SPYI copied and pasted the exact same trendlines to form the 3 upward channels that the SPY has created since 2009.
I put all this effort and time into the day to day, week to week price action analysis, but it's really just this simple.
WAIT FOR THE BIG DIPS WITH HUGE VOLUME AND BUY THEM OVER AND OVER AND OVER!
SandP 500 E-Mini Futures 240 CME Updated 2/16/17Price has gone up to the WL1. Look for possible pullback to 2330 area before going higher. The angle of this move is very high, so look for the trendline to sustain this energy.
S&P 500 FUTURES 240 CME Updated 8/30/16SandP is starting to drift lower, watch for levels to break around 210 then look for 2140 to hit the pink median line if new lows are made.
SANDP 500 FUTURES 240 CME UPDATED 7/28/16Continued downward movement shows some profit taking in SandP. Look for break of 2150-2153 area then possible fades.
SandP 500 Futures 240 CME Updated 7/5/16Price continues downward slant direction, consider a retest and hold of the Gold ML for longs, a retest and drop of white Sliding Parallel for shorts.
S&P 500 Futures, 240, CME Updated 6/28/16As predicted by the downward fork, price dropped significantly on Brexit news. A drop from the high to the lower Median Line has pushed price into high volatility. Look for a drop again at the middle Median Line retest.
S&P retracement after failure at key support levelAfter Fridays candle close (Bullish engulfing off key support) and heavy rejection on weekly candle. We are set up for a retracement to Supply level highlighted before our next possible move down.
Target: 2000 level
SL: 1800 level
S&P 500 Buy Signal After False BreakS&P 500 CME_MINI:ES1! has produced a buy signal after the false break down and subsequent reversal higher.
Daily chart shows inside bar false break ( fakey pattern ). Potential buying opportunity on pull back 1900-1915 support area, with initial upside targets to 1940-50 and 1960-80.
Is this Market Going to Roll like '08 or Run like '11?With the markets bouncing off its' lows and come roaring back to close the week with a gain, it has left many to wonder if this is 2008 or 2011 playing out. The argument for a continued bull market is that the market did hold the previous support of October's 2014 sell off, and put in a weekly reversal hammer. Also, the market was able to hold its' long term support line formed by the 2009 and 2011 lows.
However, there are other indicators that point to continued selling later this year. The selloff in 2011 still held the 150 day moving average on the weekly chart. In this sell off, we see the market has broken the 150 day average, and remains to be below it, as it did in 2008. Another concerning indicator is the MACD. Take notice on how the MACD immediately turned up and broke its' downward trendline in 2011 to resume the bull run, where as now the MACD has begun to roll over much like in 2008.
To further strengthen the case of a continued bear run, look at how the price over extended itself by breaking out of its' price channel in late 2013. From 2013 to 2015 this resistance had become support before breaking late last year. This is similar to how the market reacted towards the end of the bull run in 2006. In 2006 price overextended itself and resistance became support for the next year and a half before breaking in 2008.
Finally, I would like to point out how over the previous 6 months, Utilities have been outperforming all other sectors down only 1.38%. This is a sign of investors putting their money into defensive positions. Over the same 6 months Technology, financials, healthcare, and transport sectors are down over 10% with energy down a resounding 25%.
In conclusion, despite bouncing off its' long term support line, I believe the market will show a loss at the end of 2016.
S&P500 - Thinking about futureI made this chart to have a material which helps me to think about moves and prices. I feel pressure to let prices get cheaper. I am not shure about mid and long-term trend. I use H1 & D time-frame to predict it. This is interesting to see what will happen. I am very curious about next chinese steps. All economics need to show and proves their numbers.
