Sanlam
UPDATE: Sanlam on its strong uptrend since the breakoutIn the last analysis I mentioned, Sanlam was forming a falling flag.
That was for the buyers and sellers to balance based on the previous phenomenal growth it had.
Since then the price is above the Falling Flag ad is showing even more upside (passed my target).
But we will be generous and do another analysis if it surpasses the first place.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target R74.61
UPDATE Sanlam hit our price target and still heading upSince the last update, Sanlam formed a Falling Wedge, The price broke up and out of it and headed up.
Then the sellers kicked in and tried to bring the price back down. However, the new established support was proven to be what kept the bulls strong.
This was also a great opportunity to go long and buy the conservative entry level.
Before we knew it, the price headed straight to its first target of R63.69.
So what now. Look the trend is up, the JSE is up. So might as well stick with the trend and look for the next buying opportunity.
But I'll let you know.
Counter-Trend Masochism, Part 1 JSE:SLM Everything says don't do it. The trend is exceptionally strong with this one. But if you have a penchant for masochism, note that:
- Momentum has slowed in recent days. not faded, but slowed.
- RSI @77 is ready for some normalization
- MACD has slowed and started abating somewhat.
Technically it looks like it's stalling in a nicely defined supply zone of R59.90 to R60.84.
Nicely defined stop around R63.00 (although you have to scratch back some time to find it)
I'm shorting at or around R60.50, target R54.10 stop R63.02. However don't bet the farm.
Sanlam broken out of Falling Wedge target to R63.69Falling Wedge formed since 1 Feb 2023.
Only yesterday, we had the confirmed breakout showing strong buying and demand.
Price>200 Bullish
RSI >50
Target R63.69
SMC
Below the Wedge we have Sell Side Liquidity Order block. Where Smart money is buying where retail were selling. This gives a strong signal that high buying volume was trumping selling.
Very bullish for the stock.
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Early Roots: Sanlam was founded in 1918, originally as a life insurance company named The South African National Life Assurance Company.
Public Company: In 1998, Sanlam demutualised, changing its status from a mutual life insurance company owned by its policyholders to a public company listed on the Johannesburg and Namibian Stock Exchanges.
Wide Range of Services: Sanlam provides financial solutions in a broad range of areas, including insurance (life and general), financial planning, retirement annuities, trusts, wills, short-term insurance, asset management, risk management, and capital market activities.
Global Presence: Sanlam operates across 33 countries. It has a particularly strong presence in Africa, where it operates in many of the continent's major markets.
Five Business Clusters: Sanlam's operations are organised into five business clusters: Sanlam Personal Finance, Sanlam Emerging Markets, Sanlam Investments, Sanlam Corporate, and Santam.
Santam Subsidiary: Sanlam owns a majority stake in Santam, which is South Africa's largest short-term insurer.
Sanlam limitedI've taken a position in Sanlam at R62.52, expecting it to break 20% to the upside within the next 6 months.
I have a stop loss at around R54 - which will confirm a lower low.
At the moment, I am seeing an ascending triangle formation with strong resistance at R65, and higher lows after each pullback.
I believe it will break to the upside as this is a bullish.
Let's see how it plays out.
SANLAM finding support on the 200 moving average.JSE:SLM broke the downward trend that it was trading in since July 2020 when it formed higher highs in early November 2020. Since then, it has been consolidating and has found significant support on the 200 Moving Average. I will wait for a breakout of the consolidation zone, and if it breaks through the 6000 level, I will consider a long position.
SLM - strong break through descending trendlineWith Friday's upward move, JSE:SLM has convincingly broken through a descending trendline that it has been obeying for quite some time. If it continues upward, I will consider a long position all the way up to the previous resistance level around the 7000 price range. The stochastic, MACD and EMA's are all confirming this upward momentum.
$JSESLM forming a bearish rising wedge formationSanlam has spent the last couple of weeks consolidating in the form of a bearish rising wedge formation. The move higher off the lows has appeared on lower volume which gives bulls little confidence in this move. Should we manage to see a convincing close below the rising wedge at +- R56.00, this rising wedge could play out with a downside target of R41.50. What is also interesting to note is that the stock has battled to make any progress above the declining 50 day moving average (purple line) which has been respected by the market. Keep a close eye here as the target is quite rewarding should this pattern play out in textbook fashion.
Pair Trade Setup : Short Sanlam vs. Long Standard BankSanlam has outperformed Standard bank by a margin of 27% from the lows we saw in May of this year. The chart of their relative ratios ( SLM / SBK ) has now approached an important area of resistance (0.46 to 0.477) which has been in place for the last two years. If you take a look at the individual charts of the underlying counters, one will notice that Sanlam has once again turned off important resistance levels between R82 and R85 while Standard Bank is not trading too far away from its 200 week moving average which has provided important support for the stock over the last two years. In Addition, the Standard Bank daily chart is trading in a triangle with support some R2 away from current levels. This would support my view on the pair trade as i believe that Sanlam will under-perform Standard Bank going forward, or at least, there is sufficient reason to believe that Standard bank has a better chance of climbing higher than Sanlam at this point in time. In Addition, the MACD indicator has made a lower high even though price made a slightly higher swing high which further reinforces my view that price action is weak and should see the pair ratio revert lower.
SLM -> PE ratio: 22.2x DY : 3.85%
SBK -> PE ratio 9.8x DY: 5.69%
From a fundamental perspective, Standard Bank's Price to Earnings Ratio is not demanding whilst also boasting a much better Dividend yield.
Suggested ratio entry point : 0.463 - 0.475
Suggested ratio stop loss: closed above 0.480
Suggested ratio exit point: 0.427 to 0.433
To be entered at a ratio of 1:1. i.e 100k nominal short position in Sanlam vs. 100k nominal long Position in Standard Bank.
Assuming we entered this pair at 0.465 today, used a stop loss at 0.480 and locked in profits @ 0.43, we are risking a move of 3.2% against us to make a potential profit of 7.5% for a risk reward ratio of just over 2.3x