Crocs | CROX | Long at $98.00If the overall/long-term upward momentum continues, Crocs NASDAQ:CROX may be nearing bounce territory at $98 as it reaches the bottom of my selected historical simple moving average (SMA). While there may be a near-term downtrend to close out a few price gaps ($80s-$90s) below the current price, the stock looks incredibly poised for an upward move as the Santa Claus rally nears. Fundamentally, a P/E of 7x, low debt, and a low float (56M) with 7% short interest all works in the favor for this stock/company. Thus, at $98, NASDAQ:CROX is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $110
Target #2 = $125
Target #3 = $135
Target #4 = $155 (long-term)
Santaclaus
SANTA CLAUS Rally in 2023 for JSE ALSI 40?Will we have a Santa Claus rally this year?
Statistics say, it is likely but let's start from the beginning...
The Santa Claus rally is when stock prices, both locally and globally, tend to go up and end the year on a positive note.
Now, why does this happen? Here are some ideas:
Holiday Cheer:
During the holiday season, people generally feel more optimistic and positive.
The festive mood can rub off on investors, making them look at the market with a brighter outlook.
Positivity often leads to more buying, which helps the rally.
Tax Time:
Toward the end of the year, investors and fund managers review their portfolios for tax purposes. This is when you'll see them selling stocks to get some tax benefits.
Once they sell, they use the money to buy other stocks, thinking those will do well in the coming year.
This buying spree lifts stock prices and pushes up market indices.
Bonus Spending:
Investors often use their year-end bonuses to buy stocks. More buying means higher demand, and you know what that does – stocks go up!
While it's a bit speculative, nothing says Santa Claus Rally like charts showing off holiday cheer.
The JSE has seen gains in 14 out of 20 Decembers!
Take a look at the JSE-ALSI stock market chart since 2003. Each December is marked with a vertical blue line, showing how it performed:
That's a 70% win rate with positive gains in 14 out of 20 Decembers, accumulating a total of 38.72% gains.
So, chances are, buying this Christmas might be a good idea, especially after a sideways year for the JSE ALSI.
A Santa Claus Rally for the JSE in 2022? What is expected from a Santa Claus Rally?
The Santa Claus rally, is essentially where we see stock prices locally and globally rise and close off positively by the end of December.
And so, we can expect a rally in December which we can all profit from…
Why December? We aren’t 100% sure but we have some speculations on why the market tends to rally…
#1: Investment managers cut down on their taxes
This is the time when you’ll see investors and investment managers, selling their stocks to lock in tax reductions before the end of the year.
Once they sell their positions, they then buy other stocks and markets that they believe will rally in the next year.
The buying of these stocks, leads to a rise in stock prices which pushes the stock market indices up.
Theory #2: Investors enjoy their bonuses by buying into investments
Investors also like to spend their bonuses on investments like stocks…
And when they buy, demand picks up.
And this leads to higher stock market prices.
Speculation is one thing.
But nothing confirms a Santa Claus Rally more than proof in the charts…
The JSE has gone up 14 out of 19 Decembers!
What you see, is the monthly JSE-ALSI stock market chart since 2003…
Looking at the chart you can see how each December (Vertical blue line) performed from 2003 up ‘till 2021
Year Gain/Loss
Year Gain/Loss
2003 : 7.39%
2004 : 1.28%
2005 : 6.84%
2006 : 3.90%
2007 : -4.99%
2008 : 0.51%
2009 : 2.62%
2010 : 6.69%
2011 : -3.26%
2012 : 2.72%
2013 : 3.27%
2014 : -0.53%
2015 : -1.15%
2016 : 0.48%
2017 : -1.33%
2018 : 4.63%
2019 : 3.51%
2020 : 3.83%
2021 : 4.66%
So, there’ve been 14 out of 19 Decembers (74% win rate) that have shown positive gains.
And in total, the JSE has accumulated 41.07% gains in all of those Decembers.
This means, you have a higher chance of profiting from buying this Christmas than selling.
And right now, this December the JSE ALSI 40 is already up an insane 14.48% gain.
And I am seeing no signs of a slow down yet…
I guess a Santa Claus rally is more likely than not, but we have had three to four winning years in a row... Things are looking good for now but the month is young...
Do you think we will have a JSE Santa Claus Rally?
Let me know.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Happy New Year | My Letter to Santa 🎅
Hey traders,
I hope you have already prepared your letter for Santa.
In case if you are not, I can let you cheat off mine.
Complete your wish list for the next year and send it to Santa Claus before December 31st.
I am wishing you and your family health, happiness, peace and prosperity this Christmas and in the coming New Year.
Let me know what you asked Santa for?
Happy New Year, traders!
Christmas Tree Pattern Formation
hey traders,
This year we faced a lot of obstacles and problems. For many this year was phenomenally hard.
There is a famous quote by Marcus Aurelius “The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way.”
In any obstacle, there is an opportunity. What we should be doing, we should look at every obstacle that we face as an opportunity for us to grow and to make us stronger so that we can turn that into an opportunity. Every obstacle is the way forward.
I wish you all a lot of opportunities next year.
Merry Christmas!!!
WTI & BRENT: Santa was very nice to us this year! (MOVE ↑ of $2)Hello.
My name is Francois Normandeau.
Here is a quick recap of today's trade on West Texas intermediate on the left and Brent oil
on the right we can see that we had an entry here on the short term momentum indicator.
The close of the trade is when either one of those two indicators leave the by zone.
So this happen here at 12:23 p.m.
And price was 4828. So in the end this one from 46:29. To 4828
This main trade lasted about 10 hours and a half.
A move up of about $2 on us oil and $1.85 on Brent… a substantial move.
We can see here move confirm on this modified ADX indicator here.
One move, one leg, consolidation, second move, the second leg, so we can see this here this up move is here
and then a consolidation and then a second up move, which is this one here and we see the same thing on Brandt on the other side.
We have the signal for an entry on the short term momentum indicator here and a second signal for an entry on this midterm momentum indicator here and the signal for the close here when we see one of those two indicators leave the buy zone
.
This would have been I've been the close of the trade and the same logic applies to Brent for the entry for a trade here.
A second signal can be seen here and the signal for the end of the trade here, confirmed.
So quick recap on a very interesting trading day today.
My name is Francois Normandeau and I will post more information on our website ADX-BRIEFING.
Thanks.
Take care and have a good week.
Merry Christmas to you and those you love.
Francois Normandeau
Institutional Research Director for ADX-BRIEFING
TVC:USOIL
NYMEX:CL1!
TVC:UKOIL
Santa Claus Rally Defined for 2020The Santa Claus Rally was first published in the Traders Almanac in 1972. The definition is as follows:
A stock market rise during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January.
For 2020 this means the Rally would start thursday December 24th, 2020; and end tuesday January 5th, 2021.
According to the 2019 Stock Trader's Almanac, stock prices have historically risen 76% of the time over the 7 trading days. So historically, there is bullish sentiment over these trading week.
There is a caveat, though; and it is well explained with the following quote from Yale Hirsch himself:
"If Santa Claus should fail to call; Bears may come to Broad & Wall" . Meaning, if the Santa Claus rally turn into a sell-off; January will be set for a continuation of selling.
December lows are currently the fundamental support level.
Happy new years to all,
Dorf
My Trading Journey: Does Santa Claus always come?Today was an interesting day in the market. What could it mean for the rest of the year...
Just last night I pulled up some logs from the year 2 B.C. (Before Corona) because I remember a very important moment in my trading journey that began in early December 2018. The market action that month and the January following was a very formative experience for me in my trading. The hard lesson that year set me up to make it big THIS year. I believe that's the type of journey every trader must face.
Will Santa Bring Us Bitcoin at $5k For Christmas?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has successfully completed an Elliott impulse wave (12345) and is now in a 3-wave corrective sequence (ABC) that touched the Fibonacci retracement at 0.618 ($3,910).
BTC may stayed a while in this range with the formation of a new Elliott flat pattern (ABC), before to start an second uptrend, this time toward the next resistance at $4.400.
The formation of this new 5-wave impulse sequence with $5k target should be reached by Xmas day as requested in my letter to Santa Claus! LOL
Merry Christmas everyone. :-)
Note: I am studying TAs and not an expert, so any comment to improve my chart analysis will be welcomed.