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Santarally

Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin in 2024Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period. It's been two unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally. Shares have much wide, breather and better performance so far in 2024, amid trade and geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rate. So... while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies. Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios. But will 2024 follow the trend? The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor . This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 SP:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia . What drives the Santa rally? Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices Will there be a Santa rally this year? Probably, Yes. September quarter capped off the best 12-months return (+36.36%) for S&P500 Index since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. interest rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas. Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes it is not. The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year. The main technical graph for S&P500 Index says that we right now.. already somewhere above to 6'000 points for SPX Index, and just one step to break it out to reach the next one half-a-mile, i.e. 6'500 points by the end of the year. Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken earlier this summer. And that is all. Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2025 Year! 💖💖
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Pandorra
3
Will Santa Bring Bitcoin? Tracking Crypto Trends Each DecemberAs the festive season draws near, Bitcoin traders often wonder: is December a gift-giving month for the OG crypto or one where Santa skips the BTC chimney altogether? Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s December performance has varied wildly — from record-setting rallies to stomach-churning corrections. But this year, the festive cheer in the crypto world is particularly jolly. Bitcoin BTCUSD has smashed through the $100,000 mark , Ethereum ETHUSD is dancing above $4,000 , and the markets are buzzing with speculation about lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve and crypto-friendly policies from Donald Trump’s White House. Before we spill what we know about this Christmas’s crypto miracles, let’s take a trip down memory lane, tracking Bitcoin's price moves for each December over the past 10 years. Bitcoin’s December Performance: A 10-Year Recap 2013: A Frosty End to the First Big Rally ❆ Start of December: ~$1,000 ❆ End of December: ~$750 (-25%) Bitcoin was coming off its first significant bull run, fueled by very early retail and media hype. The exuberance didn’t last as profit-taking and concerns over Mt. Gox’s solvency sent prices tumbling. 2014: A Crypto Winter Christmas ❆ Start of December: ~$375 ❆ End of December: ~$320 (-15%) 2014 was a tough year for Bitcoin. The infamous Mt. Gox hack earlier had crushed investor confidence, and the December sell-off reflected broader pessimism about crypto's future. 2015: A Subtle Santa Rally ❆ Start of December: ~$360 ❆ End of December: ~$430 (+19%) After a year of consolidation, Bitcoin ended 2015 on a positive note. December brought renewed optimism, with the first whispers of institutional interest starting to surface. 2016: The Calm Before the Storm ❆ Start of December: ~$740 ❆ End of December: ~$960 (+30%) This was the beginning of Bitcoin’s journey into mainstream consciousness. A steady rally through December set the stage for the parabolic run of 2017. 2017: Deck the Halls With All-Time Highs ❆ Start of December: ~$10,800 ❆ End of December: ~$14,000 (+30%) Bitcoin mania hit fever pitch as it reached its then-all-time high of nearly $20,000 mid-month. However, the rally fizzled by year-end, signaling the start of a brutal bear market. 2018: Coal in the Stocking ❆ Start of December: ~$4,000 ❆ End of December: ~$3,800 (-5%) The post-2017 bubble burst was in full swing. By December, Bitcoin was down nearly 80% from its peak, and the market was entrenched in a bear trend. 2019: A Neutral Noel ❆ Start of December: ~$7,500 ❆ End of December: ~$7,200 (-4%) This year saw modest losses in December as Bitcoin remained range-bound following a mid-year rally that fizzled out. 2020: A Festive Bull Run ❆ Start of December: ~$19,500 ❆ End of December: ~$29,000 (+48%) The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated Bitcoin adoption as institutions like MicroStrategy and PayPal jumped in. December capped off a historic year with a near 50% rally. 2021: Bitcoin on the Naughty List ❆ Start of December: ~$57,000 ❆ End of December: ~$46,000 (-19%) Despite starting strong, December 2021 saw Bitcoin slide as macroeconomic fears around inflation and Fed tapering weighed on risk assets. 2022: The Crypto Winter Lingers ❆ Start of December: ~$17,000 ❆ End of December: ~$16,500 (-3%) The collapse of FTX in November left the crypto market reeling. With investor confidence shattered, Bitcoin struggled to recover, hovering near its bear-market lows. 2023: A Recovery Year ❆ Start of December: ~$40,000 ❆ End of December: ~$42,500 (+6%) With the market recovering from the harsh crypto winter of 2022, Bitcoin climbed steadily throughout the year, culminating in December's moderate gains. Bitcoin ended 2023 on a modestly bullish note, driven by renewed optimism around regulatory developments and institutional interest, especially around the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that would launch in January 2024. Final Days of 2024: A December to Remember? Bitcoin’s 2024 trajectory has been nothing short of remarkable, with the OG cryptocurrency trading above $108,000 — a new all-time high. December’s price action will likely hinge on several key factors: 1️⃣ Federal Reserve Policy : Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the Fed's final meeting of the year on December 18. This has already fueled risk-on sentiment, but a surprise decision to hold rates could spark a possible sell-off. 2️⃣ Institutional Demand : Big-shot investors have continued to pour into Bitcoin in 2024, with the genuine Bitcoin ETFs accumulating more than $100 billion in assets. 3️⃣ Market Sentiment : After breaking $100,000, Bitcoin’s psychological momentum is strong. Traders are eyeing $125,000 as the next target, though volatility could lead to sharp corrections. 4️⃣ Donald Trump : The sheer power concentrated in one man — President-elect has vowed to support the growth of the crypto industry through a Bitcoin strategic reserve, lower taxes, sweeping deregulation and higher tariffs on US imports. Bullishness is truly in the air heading into 2025. What’s Under the Tree for Crypto in 2025? Looking ahead, the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remains bullish. The combination of institutional, business and consumer adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and a macroeconomic environment that continues to favor risk assets sets the stage for further growth. While $108,000 is impressive, many believe it’s just the beginning of Bitcoin’s next chapter. As we wrap up 2024, one thing is clear: the crypto market never takes a holiday (or any days off). Whether the Fed today delivers a rate cut or not, traders can expect plenty of action as we head into the new year. So, grab your hot cocoa, keep your TradingView app handy, and enjoy the ride. Happy holidays, and may your trades be merry and bright!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
28
Purple Innovation | PRPL | Long at $0.93Purple Innovation / Mattress NASDAQ:PRPL is facing a Nasdaq delisting if it can't stay above $1 by early 2025. However, a positive move up (from a technical analysis perspective) may be brewing. My historical simple moving average lines are approaching the price, which more often than not means a future price jump. But the question is, will it occur before the scheduled delisting? Google Trends shows the largest spike in the search for "Purple Mattress" occurred between June to December 2024. The CEO of NASDAQ:PRPL bought $203k worth of shares around this initial spike. The company is not expected to be profitable for some time, but I am more interested in the short-term move here vs the strength of the company, long-term. So, while this is a "risky" play, especially with the approaching Nasdaq delisting, it's interesting from a technical analysis end. At $0.93, NASDAQ:PRPL is in a personal buy zone through January 2025. Target #1 = $1.14 Target #2 = $1.30 Target #3 = $1.50 Target #4 = $1.63
NASDAQ:PRPLLong
by WorthlessViews
Trading the Santa Rally: How to Ride the Supposed Year-End SurgeThe Santa Rally — a festive event characterized by silent nights and active markets. Every December, traders whisper about it with a mix of excitement and skepticism. But what exactly is this supposed year-end market surge? Is it a gift from the markets or just a glittery myth? Let’s unwrap the truth. 🎅 What Is the Santa Rally? The Santa Rally refers to the tendency for stock markets to rise during the last few trading days of December and sometimes even the first few days of January. It’s like a financial advent calendar, but instead of dark chocolate, traders hope for green candles. The origins of this term aren’t entirely clear, but the event is widely observed. Analysts cite everything from holiday cheer to quarter-end, year-end portfolio adjustments as possible reasons. But beware — like a wrongly wrapped gift, the rally doesn’t always deliver what you expect. 🎄 Fact or Festive Fiction? The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly): Historical data does show that markets have a knack to perform well during the Santa Rally window. For instance, the S&P 500 SPX has delivered positive returns in about 75% of the observed periods since 1950. That’s better odds than guessing who’s going to win the “Ugly Sweater Contest” at the office. Not Guaranteed: However, let’s not confuse correlation with causation. While historical trends are nice to know, the market isn’t obliged to follow tradition. Geopolitical events, Fed decisions, or even a rogue tweet can easily knock this rally off course (especially now with the returning President-elect). 🚀 Why Does the Santa Rally Happen? 1️⃣ Holiday Cheer : Investors, like everyone else, might be more optimistic during the holidays, leading to increased buying momentum. After all, not many things can say “joy to the world” like a bullish portfolio. 2️⃣ Tax-Loss Harvesting : Fund managers sell off losing positions in early December to offset gains for tax purposes. By the end of the month, they’re reinvesting, potentially pushing prices higher. 3️⃣ Low Liquidity : With many big players sipping mezcal espresso martinis on the Amalfi coast, trading volumes drop. Lower liquidity can amplify price movements, making small buying pressure feel like a full-blown rally. 4️⃣ New Year Optimism : Who doesn’t love a fresh start? Many traders sign off for the quarter on a positive, upbeat note and begin setting up positions for the year ahead, adding to upward swings. ⛄️ The Myth-Busting Clause While these factors seem plausible, not every Santa Rally is a blockbuster. For example, in years of significant economic uncertainty or bearish sentiment, the holiday spirit alone isn’t enough to lift the market. 🌟 How to Trade the Santa Rally (Without Getting Grinched) 1️⃣ Set Realistic Expectations : Don’t expect a moonshot. The Santa Rally is more of a sleigh ride than a rocket launch. Focus on small, tactical trades instead of betting the farm on a rally (and yes, crypto included). 2️⃣ Watch Key Sectors : Historically, consumer discretionary and tech stocks often perform well during this period. Consider these areas, but always do your due diligence. 3️⃣ Manage Your Risk : With low liquidity, volatility can spike unexpectedly. Tighten your stop-losses and avoid overleveraging — Santa doesn’t cover margin calls. 4️⃣ Keep an Eye on Macro Events : Is the Fed hinting at rate cuts (hint: yes it is )? Is inflation stealing the spotlight (hint: yes it is )? These can overshadow any seasonal trends. ☄️ Crypto and Forex: Does Santa Visit Here Too? The Santa Rally isn’t exclusive to stocks. Forex markets can also see year-end movements as hedge funds, banks and other institutional traders close out currency positions. Meanwhile, traders in the crypto market have gotten used to living in heightened volatility not just during the holidays but at any time of the year. More recently, Donald Trump’s win was a major catalyst for an absolute beast of an updraft. 🎁 Closing Thoughts: Naughty or Nice? The Santa Rally is a fascinating mix of tradition, psychology, and market mechanics. While it’s fun to believe in a market jolly, it’s better to stay prepared for anything out of the ordinary. So, are you betting on a rally this year, or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s discuss — drop your thoughts in the comments below and tell us how you’re planning to trade the year-end rush! 🎅📈
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
9
Crocs | CROX | Long at $98.00If the overall/long-term upward momentum continues, Crocs NASDAQ:CROX may be nearing bounce territory at $98 as it reaches the bottom of my selected historical simple moving average (SMA). While there may be a near-term downtrend to close out a few price gaps ($80s-$90s) below the current price, the stock looks incredibly poised for an upward move as the Santa Claus rally nears. Fundamentally, a P/E of 7x, low debt, and a low float (56M) with 7% short interest all works in the favor for this stock/company. Thus, at $98, NASDAQ:CROX is in a personal buy zone. Target #1 = $110 Target #2 = $125 Target #3 = $135 Target #4 = $155 (long-term)
NASDAQ:CROXLong
by WorthlessViews
GoPro | GPRO | Long at $1.35NASDAQ:GPRO is a strong brand name, but with a dying userbase / lack of growth. The company has no major turnaround planned, but the chart is interesting. The stock seems to be currently consolidating as the historical simple moving average (white line) is working its way down toward the price - which often leads to a jump. Another candidate for the Santa Claus rally? Or, will the "value" lead to an acquisition? Nothing is guaranteed, but something may be brewing. While not a long-term "buy and hold" candidate for me (personally, unless the business changes or growth seems relevant), it looks very intriguing from a technical analysis perspective. Thus, at $1.35, NASDAQ:GPRO is in a personal buy zone. Target #1: $1.70 Target #2: $2.00 Target #3: $2.50 Target #4: $2.88 (if some good news emerges...)
NASDAQ:GPROLong
by WorthlessViews
NAS100 - Nasdaq will welcome Santa Rally?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. In recent days, financial markets have experienced a notable influx of capital. According to a report by Bank of America, capital flows amounted to $8.2 billion into equities, $4.9 billion into bonds, and $3.0 billion into cryptocurrencies. This marks the largest four-week inflow into cryptocurrencies, totaling $11.0 billion. Capital inflows into U.S. equities continued for the ninth consecutive week, totaling $8.2 billion. Additionally, a $4.6 billion investment in small-cap U.S. stocks pushed the 2024 inflows to record highs. Over the 12 months ending in November, an average of 186,000 new jobs were created each month. On a monthly basis, the highest job growth was observed in healthcare, leisure, and government sectors. Employment in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector also saw a boost following the resolution of labor strikes. Recent economic data continues to highlight contractionary pressures and their effects on the U.S. economy. At first glance, November’s NFP employment report indicates a resilient and strong labor market, with the U.S. economy adding approximately 227,000 jobs. This growth was largely due to the recovery of jobs lost to recent hurricanes in the Southeast and the resolution of Boeing labor strikes, both of which had reduced employment figures in October. The October report was also revised upward to 36,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, while labor force participation declined. Despite this, unemployment remains relatively low, though it may rise in the coming months if contractionary pressures persist. This week, major events in global central bank policies are expected to take place. Dubbed by some as the “central banks’ decisive week,” it begins with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision. Key U.S. economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will play a pivotal role in shaping Federal Reserve policies. Investors are primarily focused on inflation data. The November CPI report is set to be released on Wednesday, followed by the PPI report on Thursday. These figures will serve as a precursor to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Projections indicate that annual CPI may rise from 2.6% to 2.7%, while core CPI is expected to remain steady at 3.3%. If no stronger-than-expected data emerges, the Federal Reserve is likely to lean toward reducing interest rates, with the possibility of halting monetary easing in the January meeting. The December 2024 global economic outlook report by Fitch highlights rising inflation risks in the U.S., driven by stronger-than-expected consumer spending, upcoming tariff increases that raise import prices, and slowed labor force growth due to reduced net migration. Fitch forecasts that global growth will decline to 2.6% in 2025, a figure largely unchanged from its September report. However, this global stability masks significant shifts in the economic growth forecasts of major countries. U.S. economic growth for 2025 has been revised up by 0.5% to 2.1%, while the Eurozone’s growth forecast has been reduced by 0.3% to 1.2%. Similarly, China’s growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 0.2% to 4.3%. The persistent inflationary trends observed in recent months are unlikely to change significantly with the November CPI report. The CPI data, due on Wednesday, is one of the final and most important indicators ahead of the December 18 Federal Reserve meeting. It may influence FOMC members’ decisions on whether to reduce or halt interest rate cuts. Currently, there is a strong probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, stated in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he has no plans to request the resignation of Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump emphasized that he does not intend to replace Powell and will continue to work with him. In recent years, financial and tech markets have witnessed remarkable shifts. One such change is the shift in focus from semiconductor companies to AI-related software firms. After a significant rally in semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA and AMD, market enthusiasm has now shifted toward software companies such as Snowflake and Palantir. This reflects a growing realization that AI’s true potential lies in its applications across industries, rather than solely in the hardware enabling it. Semiconductor firms were the initial beneficiaries of this AI boom, but the market is now gravitating toward companies implementing AI in practical and operational ways.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
Kirklands | KIRK | Long at $1.99Kirklands $NASDAQ:KIRK. A strong move may be brewing... The historical simple moving average (SMA) is flirting with the price and has yet to break the barrier - which often results in a sharp price increase. The downward trend is finally starting to reverse based on this measure, too. While it may not soar to crazy highs like in 2021, the chart setup is exactly what I like to see for an anticipated move up as it consolidates. A 12M float and 7% short interest could get the ball rolling if/when the price breaks into the historical SMA. Fundamentally, NASDAQ:KIRK is a small-cap with $114 million in sales. It recently partnered with NYSE:BYON as an exclusive licensee of Bed Bath & Beyond neighborhood stores, positioning the company as a multi-brand retailer. The first Bed Bath & Beyond neighborhood store is planned for a 2025 opening. Could this be the force for a future price move? Time will tell. At $1.99, NASDAQ:KIRK is in a personal buy zone. Target #1 = $2.50 Target #2 = $2.75 Target #3 = $3.00 Target #4 = $4.00
NASDAQ:KIRKLong
by WorthlessViews
Levi Strauss & Co | LEVI | Long at $15.75NYSE:LEVI Straus & Co. A very historically strong company with a loyal following. While you can say what you want about quality changes and a company that feels "stale", Levis jeans don't go out of style - they just ebb and flow within style trends. While the value isn't quite there for NYSE:LEVI with a P/E of 42x and price-to-cash flow of 22x, we are near Santa Claus rally season. From a technical analysis standpoint, it just touched the "bottom" of my historical simple moving average and may be poised for a bounce from here. However, there are still two price gaps on the daily chart between $13.70 and $14.50 that (likely) will eventually be closed - which I believe may occur with greater signs of slowing consumer spending (i.e. future recession). But, for now, NYSE:LEVI is at my personal buy zone at $15.75 for a buy-and-hold into 2025. Target #1 = $18.00 Target #2 = $20.90 Target #3 = $22.75
NYSE:LEVILong
by WorthlessViews
NAS100 - Nasdaq will welcome Santa Rally?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of the bottom of the ascending channel, you can look for positions to sell Nasdaq to the 20500 target. Nasdaq buying positions will be after breaking the resistance and maintaining the ascending channel. Following the extended Thanksgiving weekend, financial markets had an opportunity to process a wide array of data and developments. Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month boosted the markets, as investors anticipated that his promises to cut taxes and ease regulations would enhance corporate profitability. However, Trump’s proposals to impose tariffs on key trading partners were largely overlooked by stock market traders, although certain sectors, such as the automotive industry, experienced adverse effects. Susannah Streeter, Head of Money Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, stated, “There is still considerable volatility, and I think this stems from the belief that the potentially damaging impact of Trump’s tariffs may not materialize.” For equity investors, 2024 has been unexpectedly favorable, with the S&P 500 on track for one of its best annual performances in history. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have risen by more than 20%, while Nvidia’s stock has tripled in value. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) last month dropped to its lowest level in a year and has indicated contraction for nearly two consecutive years. Despite the discouraging outlook it provides for the manufacturing sector, optimism remains regarding future economic activity, especially with the beginning of an easing cycle and the continued reduction in interest rates and borrowing costs. In contrast, the ISM Services Index for October reached 56.0, marking the strongest growth since the summer of 2022 Within this index, the employment component rose by nearly five points to 53.0. Steady consumer demand has been a key driver supporting the services sector. This week, the release of ISM Services PMI data will be closely monitored to determine whether persistent consumer demand and favorable labor market conditions can further stabilize and sustain growth in this sector. Additionally, the impacts of hurricanes Helen and Milton, along with widespread strikes, led to a modest increase of just 12,000 jobs in the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report for October. This report was cautiously interpreted as a clear sign of gradual cooling and weakening in the labor market. Beyond the NFP data, other indicators such as the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and average hourly earnings will also be critical. Together, these data points could guide the Federal Reserve’s decision on a potential interest rate cut in December. While the labor market remains relatively stable, evident signs of gradual declines in employment and wage growth are becoming increasingly apparent.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
SPY Ascending Triangle pattern AND Rising WedgeAMEX:SPY Printing a nice ascending triangle pattern along a rising wedge. Could go either way as marked out but considering last weeks action the time for the rally of santa is here as we head into the day of the great Turkey. Some fat wall street bankers have to cover and generate returns they keep pushing people out of positions just to buy them up. Very likely we set a new ATH on SPY this week. We just as easily could reverse as rising wedges tend to be bearish signals.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Paul_Hodls
ALT COIN SEASON! - #ALTSEASON ALTCOIN Dominance VS BITCOIN/USD. - Showing synergies between 2019 - 2020 BTC/USD CYCLE. *Identifying the relief rally - followed by a 70% correction. This chart shows how Altcoin dominance performed.. During the relief rally Peak - Followed by the 70% correction. liquidity transferring from the King currency by MARKET CAP (BITCOIN) to smaller Altcoins - Projecting synergies for 2023 - 2024 BTC/USD CYCLE. *Identifying the relief rally 2023 and projections for 2024. This shows current market price of BTC and current ALTCOIN performance. *percentage % and days it took to reach similar performance. Something to consider over the winter season as Santa clause rally comes to an end. Today we have BITCOIN + ETHERUEM ETF Hype leading into January. But also countries on the brink of a recessionary Awakening. *This chart show's how Altcoins could perform if we see BTC take the same 70% correction. *If BTC Broke out of this very identical relief rally strong enough to disregard 2019 - 2020 cycle repeating... we could expect Altcoin dominance rally much higher. Potential ETF's could be the catalyst! Hope you find this useful.. Wishing everyone a BULLISH NEW YEAR!! In the meantime - ENJOY THE FESTIVE SEASON.. MERRY CHRISTMAS TOO EVERYONE!
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D
by dibz1996
Far Side of the MoonTarget 4800 nearly there in AH trade. Looking back, a long EW for 1k pips from 3800 is apparent. Summer rally was 3rd wave, this is the 5th. On this chart, target the Dark Side of the Moon. Wish you were here! All bets off after that. Close your longs soon folks. Then get out your Floyd vinyls and do the timewarp again. Triple Witching Friday, RSI madly overbought, ATH. Gonna get choppy. Might get a visit from the Grinch. Do not expect a massive dump right away. Tops will chop and grind, pump-dump-pump-dump. it will not be a single point, rather a plateau. Good time to take a break from the madness. Correction in the New Year. Then we shall see. Happy Holidays!
TVC:SPX
by DaddySawbucks
2
Is the Santa Claus Rally on Its Way Again?The lights, carols and the last FOMC of the year, you know the drill by now, Christmas is here soon! As we head into the year's end, it's the perfect time to revisit an old idea we had last Christmas. In our piece last December titled “ Is the Santa Claus rally real? ” we explored the concept of the Santa Claus rally, discussing why and how a modified version might work. To recap, last year we proposed examining the Santa Claus rally through a spread between the S&P500 and the Nikkei, rather than focusing solely on either the S&P or Nikkei alone. This approach was based on several reasons: 1) Holiday Impact: The Christmas holiday holds greater cultural importance in the US, likely resulting in more holiday observance in the US compared to Japan. 2) Diverging Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan is set to meet next week, and while no change in the policy rate is expected, we're looking for any hints on the timing of an exit from negative interest rates. Conversely, the Federal Reserve has just signalled expectations of up to 75bps rate cuts in 2024, marking a policy shift. These differing policies could influence equities in their respective markets differently. 3) Difference in Accounting/Financial Years: Different accounting practices and book closure dates mean that institutional traders in each market will have varying flows as they prepare to close positions for the financial year. 4) January Effect Front-Running: Investors re-establishing positions after December's tax loss harvesting. With policy directions now swapping, optimism for this strategy's success is higher this year. The Federal Reserve signalling an end to hikes, has resulted in the S&P500 surging closer to previous all-time highs. Meanwhile, the USDJPY has collapsed from its high of 152, as views grow that the BOJ might end its negative interest rate policy sooner than expected, as alluded to by BOJ Governor Ueda. This Christmas, we'll compare what happened last Christmas to see if a similar pattern emerges this year. A review of last year's Christmas effect shows that the spread rose roughly 12% from mid-December to mid-February. This result adds to the current streak of a 60%-win rate since 2013, now improving to 63% with a simple average return of about 33%. Examining each index individually, we find that periods where the S&P 500’s RSI is above 75 and the Nikkei 225’s RSI is around 50 have generally preceded critical junctures where the S&P 500 continues to rise while the Nikkei remains rangebound or falls. Additionally, observing the S&P500 and Nikkei 225 spread, we notice an ascending triangle pattern, with current price action breaking above. An ascending triangle is typically associated with bullish continuation. Considering the broad macro factors, such as changing monetary policy stances aligning with the historical behavior of the Santa Claus rally, along with a bullish technical setup, we lean bullish on this spread. To express this bullish view, one could go long on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures and short on the Nikkei/USD Futures. At the current price levels, the notional value of one S&P 500 Futures contract is 4771*50 = 238550 and the notional for the Nikkei futures is 33010*5 = 165050, hence to match the notional we can trade 2 S&P 500 Futures contracts against 3 Nikkei Futures contract with the intent of holding the position from now till the middle of February. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.fool.com www.jstor.org
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by inspirante
14
Santa Rally for Altcoins on the cardsTOTAL3, an indicator of altcoin market capitalisation excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has made a significant move🔔. We've breached and closed above on a weekly timeframe some serious key levels. And are above the Bear Market high. By surpassing and maintaining above the bear market high on a weekly timeframe. While this doesn't mean we won't see a pullback in the near future, it does set up some nice space to move leading up to the BTC halving. It also comes at a timely point in the macro landscape, with the US monetary policymakers this week agreeing that rates will be dropping in 2024. With 3 rate cuts planned at this stage. These tailwinds, combined with Bitcoin potentially ranging, could see a swell of liquidity returning to the #altcoin markets. 🎅 #SantaRally?
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by PHundal
S&P closes low, but is this the end to it?Stock Market Update: S&P Shows Low Movement, But Advancements Expected The $S&P500 index exhibited low movement today, initially dipping -0.20% but quickly regaining ground to close with a slight negative of -0.1%. The market's resilience in maintaining and even advancing current price levels is surprising. In the short term (1-2 months), there's a higher probability of further advancement towards the 4553-4570 range, provided support is held above the daily resistance level of 4523. NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia's strong earnings report, released after market close, reinforces the likelihood of an upward move. Nvidia, along with Tesla, collectively accounts for nearly 70% of the S&P's daily trading volume. The recent slump in the Wholesale industry may discourage investors with a 3+ month investment horizon. However, for shorter-term investors (1-2 months), the upcoming Black Friday and Holiday season could lead to unexpectedly strong performance from other retail companies.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Kim_CLSPX
Black Friday Buzz for AMZNThe Giant of e-commerce and AWS for small businesses, which now has AI integrated, is moving up in anticipation of a strong Black Friday for $NASDAQ:AMZN. The new CEO who took over form Jeff Bezos is doing a good job. As the CEO of the AWS division, he did an amazing job building that division of AMZN. Outstanding CEOs make a company great. CEOs are more important than most investors realize. Weekly Chart shows that AMZN is about 40 points from its all-time high, so plenty of opportunity for it to move up further from here. The Blue lines indicate levels where Dark Pool buy zones and Pro traders moved in most heavily. These are now strong support levels for the stock.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
20% upside in APPLEThe stock set into an impulse in Jan 2023 and completed the first wave up by Feb 2023 and corrected thereafter till the first week of march. The wave 3 in the stock began in march 2023 and went on all the way till July and there after the stock was in complex wave 4 correction until last week. The stock is now coming out of the 4th wave correction and could give a great "Santa Rally" beginning in November and extending till Christmas Day(or beyond). The target for the 5th wave is projected around 205-210 zone.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by neeraj_2_sharma
2