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Santarally

Santa Rally VS Fed Policy in a Box Last week was a great week if you were a bull. TSLA and SPY squeezed past a bear market despite overwhelming fear and uncertainty. Santa Musk continues to sell past the original 10B he said he would, early speculation is he is at 15B and will continue to unwind . We could see more short squeezes as a driving factor. I've noticed a pattern start to emerge in S&P futures as consolidation occurs overnight at the previous days point of control and massive short squeeze during regular trading hours (RTH) around 9-10am. Another pattern I noticed in overall indexes is that bitcoins price overnight and early into the next day give an early indication of sentiment (buy or sell) so I created a script to show the difference in bitcoin open/close for the specified time period. Don't count on it though, but I have added it to one of my early morning checks to decide if I'm buying or selling during RTH. Finally, Volatility Master Cem Karsan tweeted over the holidays about the Feds policy in a box. He is basically saying the Fed has been exposed and trapped to do anything about an impending recession. I created a chart to illustrate what he was tweeting about the Feds policy in a box. An important date coming up is January 19th and VIX Options expiry date. I suspect we'll see another unpinning of VOL like we saw after the Thanksgiving Weekend. regardless of what happens. the market is getting spicy. You can see the range expansion CEM has been talking about (SUMO market) with wider distributions (up and down). These are my observations only. Not Financial Advice. Trade Safe.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
On Target. Megaphone to Santa Rally. 4800 Before 2022? 📣This a follow-up to my last post. Strong seasonality along with heavy put buying has helped this market drift higher. JPM Hedge Collar drawdown seems less likely. As long as no shock factors happen, I see 4800 by year end. After this strong week, I see some consolidation happening before the next pushes up. First resistance is the ATH, I can see it blowing right past it on its way to 4800. Levels are previous resistance which now serve as support. Some stronger than others. When the market is moving like it is and traders keep thinking "this can't keep going higher". Put buying ends up increasing which causes market makers to buy more to hedge, in essence it adds fuel to the rocket fire. I can see this continuing after a brief cooldown period on Monday. Happy Holidays!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by tohsined
SP500USD - bullish outlookHello all, For the past few weeks indices were fluctuating crazily due to Fed, ECB, Bank of England and all other market expectations. Now the SP500 index is reaching the structural ATH while forming a clear and nice double bottom pattern. There is a good chance to enter this bullish rally on the retest of the above mentioned structural level. Good luck! If you like this idea, please, like and subscribe! :) Disclaimer: This is not a trading advice or signal. Any risk related to trading this index is solely on you. Please, think thoroughly before making any trading decision. Cheers! :)
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Barysbyek
3
NAS100USD - entering the bullish rallyHello all, For the past few weeks indices were fluctuating crazily due to Fed, ECB, Bank of England and all other market expectations. Now the Nasdaq index is reaching the structural ATH while forming a clear and nice double bottom pattern. There is a good chance to enter this Santa Claus rally of 2021. Good luck! If you like this idea, please, like and subscribe! :) Disclaimer: This is not a trading advice or signal. Any risk related to trading this index is solely on you. Please, think thoroughly before making any trading decision. Cheers! :)
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Barysbyek
S&P 500 – The final combat zoneObservations: 1) Trend line from April 2020 till date is respected 4 times in the post corona rally. Present support point of the same is at 4514. 2) 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg (from Oct 4 - Nov 22) is at 4511 3) Gann Fan line 4/1 is intersecting 50% level as at (2) above at 4511. Conclusion a) SPX has crucial support zone at 4495-4510 from where some relief rally can be expected. The last hope for Santa rally, if any. b) If this zone is broken decisively, accelerated pace of downfall can be expected. SP:SPX
SP:SPX
by Rajesh_Ramchandani_Delta
2
NFLX: Inflection zone incomingReally perfect trade missed on NFLX today. These I find are fairly easy when the market environment is right. Bounced off of the 100sma on friday and traded RIGHT back up to the beginning of its latest runup on 10/20 today- to the penny. Would have taken that all day had I seen it. Fibs previously drawn. When I see setups like this on names I watch regularly, I will put alerts in so that I remember and do not have to watch closely. If we can get a market bounce here moving forward in the week, I would def watch for daytrade/swingtrade probably really both or a daytrade-turned-swing-trade (meaning leaving on a smaller size to swing which I do often when the right momentum is with the names). I stuck an alert near the top of Thur-Fri candles of last week so that if/when it hits, I can reassess it to take back up 644 or at least the 10sma- a 10/100 sma sandwich/fib play. From there, maybe a short again, but being careful to look out for Santas sleigh coming into Christmas. All Aunt Edna wants for Christmas is another year of NFLX?? IF the market continues the selling and this does not work and we lose the bottom of today/100sma, we will head back down at least to the top of the channel between 479-573 where we spent the greater part of the 2nd half of 2021~ 200sma sitting around 562. The reason I put my alert BEFORE the top of the thur/fri candles is because IF we cannot break above those, that is an excellent place to short and the momentum would probably break the 100sma taking us back down to the 200sma and if that breaks, to the purple channel. The cliffnotes are: there is no trade. BUT, I am prepping for a trade ;)
NASDAQ:NFLX
by nurseblood
Nasdaq Dip Now >> Santa Rally NextLooking for a leg down to complete a 4th wave in Nasdaq & S&P . The recent strength can be counted as a B wave with C expected down. A very long trend line and recent touches on it could amount to a bit of a snap if it breaks. C waves are often an impulse as well, so it could be a quick decline... But it is a bull market so expect surprises to the upside as noted, shorting may not even be a good option here. If I'm right there should be a good buying opportunity which could amount to a Santa Rally if it sustains. If you aren't familiar with the 88.6% Fibonacci, .886 is the square root of .786... hence the note on the chart. I will likely short at 62% or 78.6% of A with a risk to the 88.6% depending on how the evening proceeds.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by FuturesIntelTM
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/30/2020 SessionContract - CME_MINI:MNQH2021 - High - 12864.25 - Low - 12843.00 Current Stats - Gap: = N/A - Session Open ATR: 175.40 - Volume: 20k - Trend Grade: Bullish Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range) - Long: 13337 - Short: 10650 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQH2021Long
by mv3trader5
Santa Claus Rally Defined for 2020The Santa Claus Rally was first published in the Traders Almanac in 1972. The definition is as follows: A stock market rise during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January. For 2020 this means the Rally would start thursday December 24th, 2020; and end tuesday January 5th, 2021. According to the 2019 Stock Trader's Almanac, stock prices have historically risen 76% of the time over the 7 trading days. So historically, there is bullish sentiment over these trading week. There is a caveat, though; and it is well explained with the following quote from Yale Hirsch himself: "If Santa Claus should fail to call; Bears may come to Broad & Wall" . Meaning, if the Santa Claus rally turn into a sell-off; January will be set for a continuation of selling. December lows are currently the fundamental support level. Happy new years to all, Dorf
AMEX:SPY
by dorfmanmaster
Silver will reach back to the upside channel target 25,098 euroAs you can see we have closed an outside bar on a daily basis. This week canldestick will be bullish to ,because after a outside bar , we have seeing a bullish rise in the last bull run in 2010. When it gets to the upside channel(green) we'll probably see a bull run to 30 euro. With a good of luck we could see a new all time high at the end of april 2021 The risk is under 21,106, because there you see the last support. Small risk and high profit Good luck
FX_IDC:XAGEURLong
by price_action_bars
Do You Believe in Santa Clause and... his rally?We're in the week that traditionally Santa's rally begins. Sales of tax losses usually end after the 15th of this month, so the coast is clear. At the same time, no one has forgotten the slaughter in the stock markets, which began at the same time last year. Well, do you believe in Santa and his rally in 2019? Yes, I was an obedient child during the year and I believe Santa will give another gift to my wallet… The second half of December is usually associated with stable seasonal demand for risky assets, especially given that the market cleared three significant overhanging clouds (UK elections, USMCA, US-China tariffs). China and the US have reached a first-phase deal in which the US will suspend tariffs in December and cut tariffs from 15% to 7.5% of the September list. Looking at the rest of the world, we see that the OECD's leading indicator confirms current stabilization. After 21 months of delay, the composite leading indicator returned to recovery, which has been historically positive for risky assets. The bearish scenarios and fears of recession were a large part of the investment markets throughout the year, and yet the global rally lifted almost all asset classes in 2019, except industrial metals, EUR and CHF. Looking at all mentioned above, the optimist in me suggests that the risk appetite among investors is likely to remain high despite the expected deviation in the trade talk story. The pessimist in me says that there is no way after a whole year of growth that we will not see a retreat and Santa will not help us… However, in a realistic view, a restricted deal means limited risk as investors become cautious, ultimately viewing Friday's partial deal as a short-term installment rather than a clear path to lasting and complete resolution of the trade tensions. In addition, the victory of Boris Johnson only brought more hope, but it did not draw the clear path of Brexit and the light in the tunnel is far away… At the same time, US stock market is overbought, which means it is vulnerable to a fall if bad news hits us this week. If the momentum of the stock market turns, smart money with big profits, especially hedge funds, may want to sell to lock in the profits. And such sales can accelerate the downward momentum. Looking ahead, this is a scenario that requires cautious attention and investors should be vigilant. Traders will now be forced to consider the prospect of the second phase of the trade deal and what will happen next. But for now, they might be just as happy to put the trade in the rearview mirror for a few weeks and to focus on economic data. The structure of the calendar this year leaves this week as de facto the last week of the year. And this is what makes it harder to explain intraday movements. We are about to see… In conclusion, I'll just say - don't be fooled, these stock markets are mostly controlled by the momentum crowd. Buying is not because of better earnings, better economy or better geopolitics, but because of the upside momentum. Keep in mind that sometimes the crowd is unshakable and can turn up for a penny. Technically, the S&P 500 starts the week by jumping to the $ 3,200 level. This level is, of course, a psychologically important figure, so that in itself was a sensible event. In addition, we also had an ascending triangle on daily chart that was broken up and in fact the price hit our longer-term goal. Now when that it has been reached, nothing is clear except that there is an obvious bullish pressure underneath. We prefer to Buy on the falls at this point, and I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 drop to 3,100 before I weigh up. Many experts call that the next bullish target is $ 3,250, and another 50 points from now until the end of the year would certainly not be a big challenge. We believe that short-term pullback should be seen as potential buying opportunities. Especially given that so many money managers outside have to pad their results for the year. After all, this is a market that has a direction and of course it is an upside trend. But remember that there is quite a bit of market noise. What is your opinion? Do you already close your positions before the holidays or are you looking to capture the last moment?
TVC:SPXLong
by ForexTrendline
2
69% Chance of a Santa Claus Rally on the JSE in 2019Go to Google, Bloomberg, Business Times and you’ll see big debates between nations talking about this rally. This sparked my curiosity to see if we could also see a stock market rally on the JSE this year. Today I’m going to tell you what the Santa Claus rally is, why it exists and how you have a 69% chance to profit from the JSE this December. Let’s get to it… Why you can see a sudden stock market rally at Christmas time The Santa Claus rally, in a nutshell, is when stocks see sudden price rises and strong gains near the end of December and in early January. And when stocks rally, this drives up the actual stock market indices as well. According to the 2019 Stock Trader’s Almanac, there’s an average 1.3% market rally in stocks, during this time that has taken place 75% of the time since 1969. We are not 100% sure why the stock market ends positive during the last few days of the year, but here are some common theories. Theory #1: Investment managers cut down on their taxes This is the time when you’ll see investors and investment managers, selling their stocks to lock in tax reductions before the end of the year. Once they sell their positions, they then buy other stocks and markets that they believe will rally in the next year. The buying of these stocks, leads to a rise in stock prices which pushes the stock market indices up. Theory #2: Investors treat themselves with their bonuses Investors tend to splurge at the end of the year on stocks with their bonuses they’re paid at the end of the year. And when there’s buying, demand picks up which leads to higher stock market prices. We can speculate all we want, but nothing tells us the truth more than what the charts show. What you see, is the monthly JSE-ALSI stock market chart since 2003… Looking at the chart you can see how each December (Vertical blue line) performed from 2003 up ‘till 2018. Year Gain/Loss 2003 7.39% 2004 1.28% 2005 6.84% 2006 3.90% 2007 -4.99% 2008 0.51% 2009 2.62% 2010 6.69% 2011 -3.26% 2012 2.72% 2013 3.27% 2014 -0.53% 2015 -1.15% 2016 0.48% 2017 -1.33% 2018 4.63% So, there’ve been 11 out of 16 Decembers (69%) that have shown positive gains. And in total, the JSE has accumulated 29.07% gains in all of those Decembers. This means, you have a higher chance of profiting from buying this Christmas than selling. Trade well, Timon Rossolimos Founder, TimonAndMATI.com
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
ORBEX: Has the Santa Rally Started Already?In today’s market insights I explain why equities are not affected by reports that China wants existing tariffs removed in order to proceed with phase one of a deal! Perhaps, investors couldn't care less about the consistent back and forth between US and China before they go home for Christmas... I reveal how I expect the S&P500 to perform in December, and while at it, I also analyse the US index! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
IS THE BTC SANTA RALLY ABOUT TO BEGIN? Hey Everyone, Have the BEARS taken over BTC? In my last chart... We are at the point where I believed we could see a reversal. As I explain lower, we need to hold above $6,775 to start heading higher for our CHRISTMAS run or SANTA RALLY as it is commonly known. While news out of China had moved the market HIGHER,it has now driven the market LOWER. Why does NEWS move the market? The highly volatile crypto market, is not only driven by supple and demand, it is driven by the news cycle. A positive news story can push the market to new highs, while negative news, will drive the market to the depths of despair. Crypto is a relatively new market in comparison to every other market, and it is highly speculative. In the last few days we have seen many articles coming out with news that China is again tightening its cryptocurrency trading rules and laws. We have also seen exchange headquarters raided and shut down. In recent weeks we saw a huge bounce with news of Chinese government backed BLOCKCHAIN efforts, and the market rallied, only to realise, it is BLOCKCHAIN technology that was the winner, not cryptocurrency trading, so the market reflected this sentiment by correcting. Slowly the industry is understanding the vital differences between technology and trading. We will start to see movement in coins/tokens that have viable futures, and the market will move away from the get rich quick schemes we saw in 2017 and part of 2018. This is an exciting time for CRYPTOCURRENCY as the market slowly matures, and only the strong will survive. In my opinion, there is now room for nearly 5000 cryptocurrencies, many you and I would have never heard of. 2020 will be a telling year for the future and success of many of these unknown currencies. THE TECHNICAL STUFF BTC has a cross support, with wedge support at $6,775. This is also the GOLDEN POCKET according to FIBONACCI. (61.8-65.0) If this region fails to hold and find support of the buyers, our next support level (78.6) $5,402 with only minor horizontal support in this region. Next level after this is and our next support region with strong support is $4,775. which could send a wick down to (88.0-90.0) Fibonacci level $4,491-4,283. Which also happens to be the same level on the Fibonacci that we corrected to after the All time high... If you are unsure of direction or feel you are over trading I have a moto. IF IN DOUBT SIT OUT! There is no shame in not being in a trade. Stick to your game plan, wait for a set up to be confirmed, and ONLY take a trade if it all aligns. So please I welcome your comments and CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK - ALL HATERS WILL BE FLAGGED AND REPORTED! And remember, there is NO RIGHT OR WRONG in trading - just money management! REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION (minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 Lisa DISCLAIMER: The Legal stuff - I'm not financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons... PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3
BITMEX:XBT
by LisaNEdwards
25
Holiday seasonality play on RETAIL- XRT LONG IDEAXRT is the retail ETF and every year we get a burst around the holiday season if you're patient. Over the past three years, starting the beginning of November into December and even through some of January XRT and the Retail sector popped higher off the increased sales through the holiday season. Even last year while we experienced a correction to bear market in the market, the XRT long play had a chance for profitability by $5-6. This time around we expect a move higher from $43 up to $47 even $50 to capture the retail seasonality. The year to date POC is holding good support unless we see a strong market reversal in the last month of the year, the trade has potential.
AMEX:XRTLong
by TRADEPROAcademy