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SINGAPORE & INDONESIA COVID-19 WavesWas in a number of private discussions over this week, and noted that there appears to be some dynamics in motion currently. Quick note that the Singapore 6th COVID wave is pretty turned over, according to the data provided publicly. It was a smaller wave compared to previously, as expected. However, the neighbouring Indonesia is currently in the midst of a wave and by similar projections (if relevant), the wave should peak out over the next two weeks ending November. Just an observation to share... PS. Apologies, I don't know why the chart looks so messy... it published differently, pre-cleaning up. Just look at the MACD curves and about 78% of the previous wave (MACD) as the target point for Indonesia wave to peak out.
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by Auguraltrader
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 6I do not know the robustness of the data collected, as it differs greatly in different places. But with just a quick comparison: Singapore relaxed mask measures on 29 August, and from early September, there was already an uptick and the MACD histograms pointed out to late September crossover. Indeed, on 30 September, CNA reported a 40% week on week increase in COVID-19 cases. This wave/spike appears to be much less steep than the previous in June 2022. Nonetheless, with the F1 weekend happening, we might get a continuation of the spike for the month of October into November... a smaller but longer wave. Demonstrates yet again that the MACD histograms have an edge in projecting the time line to a spike in cases. IF only the people know about such a simple and yet effective tool. In the same comparison, the UK appears to have tapered down after a recent spike. However, noted that the daily numbers are actually weekly numbers. Demonstrates the robustness of data for reliability. Indonesia looks to be tapering off too, but Malaysia appears to be looking at a crossover by mid-October for a wave, albeit a smaller wave. Really, IF anyone still cares enough...
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by Auguraltrader
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 5 delayed onsetHeads up... Next Wave 5 is ON. Not expected to be bigger than the initial Omicron wave, or even Delta for that matter, but significant enough. This probably comes from imported cases with less screening and testing, as well as under reporting. The under reporting is messing with the data outcome and accuracy, also significantly dropping the heads up period... this wave 5 coincides with the end of school holidays, and returning travellers are very likely to bring more seeds back. Spike peaks should be end July early August period. May be extended with National Day holiday weekend in early August.
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by Auguraltrader
GLOBAL COVID-19 - Pushing the projection model Just an observation here... I have been posting much about using the MACD Histograms to project the spikes and waves of COVID-19 infections, given the data collated on this platform. So far, it has been pretty uncanny in accuracy. Just coming across the Total COVID-19 Confirmed Infections chart, there appears to be an odd divergence on the MACD histograms.. and this leaves me wondering if we are on the cusp of an unllikely surprise global surge, starting from April 2022. Am really left wondering if I am pushing this projection model too far, or it is telling us something... only time will tell, I suppose.
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by Auguraltrader
INDIA COVID Wave incoming Update IIIA week later from the last update, we see a massive spike in the COVID cases. First, as expected since Oct 20, at the turn of the year, the next wave is set upon India. Second, this wave is very sudden and much bigger in magnitude, particularly in the last week. This will translate to a longer tailing off in the months to come. Third, a new trajectory is projected, one that is a lot steeper. Yet again, this projection model works spot on...
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by Auguraltrader
SINGAPORE INDONESIA MALAYSIA US COVID ProjectionTime for an update... Singapore is not enjoying it, but it is in a surprise wave. IT should start to taper off, but the tail would be long... Indonesia was as projected, and appears to be slowing slightly. Malaysia is the surprise, as instead of tailing off, a new spike over the last three weeks emerged and the trajectory indicates higher levels over the next weeks. Of interest, the USA... as the CDC makes about turns in their advisory, and summer holidays are going on with people being still very complacent about it, it looks like a spike wave is due over the next two weeks, and projected to accelerate. On this note, I wonder IF the equity market will finally realize and freak out for a bit here... It has been 1.5 years, have we learnt nothing? If at all, the war has changed inherently, with the Delta variant. There will be more to come...
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by Auguraltrader
SINGAPORE UK INDONESIA COVID-19 UpdateSingapore COVID-19 is on a downtrend, albeit a potential small spike due to some infected hostesses may have affected a number of people. Not the most flattering of ways to get a spike. But it is tapering off for now... UK on the other hand, eases its measures today, but leaves me wondering IF anyone is even watching the charts, or doing any statistical studies. The wave onset projected is on time, and it is on now... starts now, for the next couple of months! Hello ?? Indonesia has gotten from bad to worse to even worse. Projections are underestimating the acceleration as daily cases from 20,000 a week ago now hits 40,000 yesterday. This would take more than a couple of months to slow down, if at all. IT's too little too late for vaccinations now, but that's the best weapon there is in the shed. Malaysia is modulating the current wave, and current projections point to a slow down in infection spread.
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by Auguraltrader
COVID-19 tracking SG and her neighbours (MY, ID and TH)Looking at the weekly charts... 1. All, except ID, are increasing in Wave 3, with differing levels of acceleration. 2. ID may be having an uptick... 3. SG's momentum is still strong for another two weeks at least. 4. Both My and TH have strong momentum to further increase. MY's situation is bad enough with TH's situation being worse. Overall, the three neighbours have at least another 2-4 weeks of the wave to ride out; of which the northern two probable take months more... PS. Previously described, the MACD and MACD Histograms are very useful in projecting the virus infection waves. Used here for personal monitoring and analysis. What this simple tool identified does is to allow an advantage to be ahead of the curve instead of being behind it chasing the virus as it silently sweeps across the population.
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by Auguraltrader
UK COVID-19 Next Wave ProjectionI was just having a conversation with a Singaporean good friend who lives in London, and called this afternoon upon learning about the (earlier expected) stricter measures that was just announced this afternoon. We were exchanging views on how the countries differ in the management of the pandemic, and the consequent success and failures. Then mentioned that UK may be next... and I offered to use the same MACD system to project for the UK from the current known status. In the chart above, the MACD corroborates that the situation in the UK had somewhat stabilized over the last two months after their Easter lockdown. Thing is, there appears to be a levelling off, and the arc drawn is projecting how it might turn out over the next weeks... and projection made that the start of a spike is at the end of June, into July. IF this projection is on point, then outnbreak news should be seen in the latter part of July. Let's test this system again! Meanwhile... do take care, stay safe, stay healthy, especially if you are in the UK.
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by Auguraltrader
Hyperinflation aheadOil the biggest traded commodity globally by far and therefor best indicator to detect commodity price inflation imho. From Investopedia artikel Why Didn't Quantitative Easing Lead to Hyperinflation? the following snippet: "During the Great Recession banks still had bad loans and toxic assets on their balance sheets as a result of the housing bubble burst and its aftershocks. While the central bank did increase the money supply sharply, banks used these funds to shore up their balance sheets and buffer toxic assets, rather than creating new loans." Expecting the banks to have continued with this responsible business model, hyperinflation will fall upon the world economy straight out of the blue imho. Very well possible the reason why the UJ Seasonality opening bell has us waiting since March '18 for its continuation. A confluence of circumstances leading up to the great recession of 2008 included economic disruptions such as SARS and a CDO housing bubble, a repeat of quite a similar series of events likely to unfold with COVID marking the start of it all..
TVC:USOILLong
by Deep-Peat-Shark
2
FDA identifies "Assay Kit" able to detect SARS-CoV-2 mutationsU.S. FDA Lists Applied DNA’s Linea™ COVID-19 Assay Kit as 1 of Only 2 EUA-Authorized Tests Able to Detect S-Gene Mutation Found in SARS-CoV-2 U.K. Variant (B.1.1.7) (FDA) published a safety communication (the "Communication") that identifies the Company’s Linea™ COVID-19 Assay Kit (the "Assay Kit") as one of only two tests marketed under the FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) that are potentially able to identify certain SARS-CoV-2 mutations, including a mutation found in the U.K. variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.1.7). According to recent publications, the B.1.1.7 variant has been identified within the United States and may be associated with an increased risk of transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19. Based on analysis conducted by the Company and FDA, one of the two S-gene targets (S1 and S2) of the Assay Kit has significantly reduced sensitivity in the presence of certain S-gene mutations, including a mutation found in the B.1.1.7 variant. finance.yahoo.com
NASDAQ:APDN
by AlenCiken
T2SARS-CoV-2™ Panel can detect multiple variants of the SARS-CoVT2 Biosystems T2SARS-CoV-2™ Panel Proves Effective Amid Global Rise in Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus Panel can detect multiple variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, including those most recently identified in the United Kingdom, South Africa, and the U.S. T2SARS-CoV-2 Panel, which has demonstrated clinical sensitivity of 95 percent and specificity of 100 percent. The T2SARS-CoV-2 Panel provides results in under two hours utilizing an upper respiratory swab sample. The test runs on the Company’s FDA-cleared and fully-automated T2Dx® Instrument, which is capable of performing seven tests simultaneously and up to sixty samples per day. finance.yahoo.com
NASDAQ:TTOO
by AlenCiken
COVId-19 Scan for the US, GB, GER and CHNCOVID-19 Confirmed cases for the USA, Great Britain, Germany, and China... Clearly the Western (world) major economies are having trouble handling the COVID-19 pandemic. Germany appears to be the most parabolic, then Great Britain is similar although not as steep. USA is not far off in the speed of spread. Opposing to that, China has been doing well, and numbers are low, with the MACD having an opposing pattern, falling as time goes along. This is going to be the stage for 2021; and the writing is on the wall (chart) now...
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by Auguraltrader
COVID-19 Scanning outlook for US, SG, MY and IDJust compiling a snapshot chart of the COVID-19 confirmed cases of US, SG, MY and ID. These charts are avail in TradingView and if you are worried about the situation getting better or worse, you can use the MACD to give an indication. Remember that these charts track the Confirmed cases, so the charts will only increase, else flatline. Here we see how SG has flatlined much, such that the MACD is falling. Contrary to that, the US numbers are escalating again, and MACD clearly shows it is in Wave 1.3 Indonesia is increasing, but the rate is moderating at best. And in Malaysia, it is escalating so fast, it is almost going parabolic. The MACD accentuates the rising differences per week on week. All these can give a better outlook into the fear of future lockdowns, and perhaps Forward economic status. Hope this helps!
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by Auguraltrader
S&P 500On the S&P 500 im getting ready to sell it because we have a bat pattern that formed! the pat pattern "B" point is at the Maximum 5% tollerance outlined in Scott Carney's 3rd Harmonic Trading Volume. the 401k index has been struggling since SARS2 taken the world by storm. i dont expect it to get any better since the Q2 earnings report is going to reflect the majority of the shut down the world has implememnted. in Q1 we had January and Febuary of earning power to offset the lack of business that the shut down caused in March. in Q2 however we have 2 months of complete shutdown with maybe 1/2 a month of earning power to offset the the 2 months of no earnings. your highly leveraged business are really going to be hurting this Quater with many of them having to take out loans and ETC. i havent tried, nor do i want to, read the 1800+ pages the CARES Act or HEROS Act has. Somewhere in those pages are clauses that are in place to help business, but what i do know its not going to be enough to suffice for the lost earnings. Common Stock is about to plummit again as investors see their 401k take another hit. a few weeks ago popular analysis came out saying the Bear Market is over and retail traders listening to this garbage rushed back into the market to buy stock at a bargin price. and dont get me wrong some of those stocks were a bargin, but how are we going to be out of a bear market when S&P 500 did not even retrace to the 618 on the daily. fundamental analysis is essential but those analysit use technical analysis to form their fundamental analysis. if by chance there are any traders out there that read all of this wait to enter the market. holding onto your money isnt going to cost a penny (unless the fed introduces a negatie interest rate), but entering the market early could cost you everything!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ARegularGuy
7
SPX: SARS-CoV-2Hi Guys, interesting to note SPX 2020 price targets expected by Wall Street's top strategists at the end of 2019s: BofA (Savita Subramanian) 3300 Barclays (Maneesh Deshpande) 3300 Goldman Sachs (David Kostin) 3400 JPMorgan Chase (Dubravko Lakos-Bujas) 3400 Credit Suisse (Jonathan Golub) 3450 Citigroup (Tobias Levkovich) 3375 Wells Fargo (Chris Harvey) 3388 Deutsche Bank (Binky Chadha) 3250 ( source : finance.yahoo.com) There is no doubt that SARS-CoV-2 is playing a major role in this market downturn but interesting to note that it still made it to 3400 on Feb 20, 2020 before dropping. Right where a lot of Wall Street's top Banks and Hedge Funds met their 2020 targets and probably took their profits. Please share your views or comment and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
FX:SPX500
by cozzamara