Tracking the highs in Crude after Supply cuts are priced inHere we are tracking a retrace in Crude after expected supply cuts are fully baked into the market.
Bulls are going overboard here, forgetting that we have demand shocks coming with the global slowdown. The impulsive leg down last year was caused from the supply side, there is very little that can be done here to get back to these levels again.
Good luck everyone trade this live.
Saudi
TUPRS Short idea. Make gains on your crypto playing real marketsThis is setting up for a nice short play. We have learned to play these markets by playing crypto and while nothing is happening with that at the moment we can play real markets such as forex, stocks and indices. These things move every weekday. Tuprs is a Petrol company, they buy oil and make products such as oil for your car, gas for heating and petrol. Looking at the chart on a big timeframe you can see divergence. This says we are due a correction. Just going by the chart. Now you look at new and I don't care too much about that but you see that Saudi journalist that got killed in Turkey. They are starting a row with Saudi and where does most of the worlds oil come from? All it takes is for them to get pissed with all the bad attention going there way, raise prices by slowing production and make companies like these prices rise/profits fall.
A 25$ drop with margin? Yes please!
Looking at lower times to get a short. My short from $133 was stopped out yesterday but it has not discouraged me. I will look to go again. From $135 to $140 with a stop of $145.
So if you are a crypto holder, ETH, BTC or DASH you can make some gains while not worrying about the crypto market by playing real markets like this one. So if you change your margin to 100x you can get 10/1 on this which I think is safe, you can go 500/1 which would be 50/1 on this but lets not be greedy. This is what I think will happen over the coming weeks. Just by the chart pattern the news will come to fit this, its just how it is.
Look for it to pull back in a bear flag pattern and sell at either the top or when it breaks the bottom of it.
You can play this and many other things at simplefx.com (my referral link) you can deposit it crypto. If you do a search of them you will see some SCAM alert things about them from the BCH moon last year. But you wont find anything about the other products. So don't use these for crypto you have others for that but they are okay for real markets.
So I say again, if you are a hodler, forget crypto while its doing nothing and start branching out. You have been learning the last year or so, start putting that knowledge to work where others are not thinking about.
APPL too all heading for falls. These work the same as crypto, you can profit off of these things where the news and things will have you think you need a finance college degree to understand this stuff. Its just chart patterns and trends like crypto. And this product is heading for a correction. The news will come to fit the pattern, its how it works.
Crude Deal coupled with Technicals to take Prices Lower.Expecting a double top on double divergence leading to an "M" pattern taking oil back to missed monthly pivot.
Saudis have indicated that their crude production will increase substantially come August, and it will be not by the "hundreds of thousands, not tens of thousands, of barrels.(1)"
1.) Reed, Stanley, "Saudis, Saying They Heard Price Complaints, Are Raising Oil Production." New York Times, June 23, 2018
Oil continues higherOil should continue its bull run higher after a short correction. Saudi's seem to be finally getting their act together, and with power consolidation, should be able to limit supply enough to continue this rebound in prices this year. Fed's higher interest rates should dampen the response from debt-laden shale producers. These should set up for long-term higher oil.
USOIL : Daily View. Potential Target $36Crown patterns emerges very evidently. Conventional target $36 which is 0.618 fib retracement.
Any news can give breakout from the pattern and rally towards $54-$55
Be careful
Long term trade
Short Entry Price : 44.30 (Candle Close below)
SL : $ 46.65
TG1 : $43.01
TG2 : $38.85
TG3 : $36.03
Pls refer to all Resistance line (Maroon)
PS. Generally I dont believe in support and resistance theory. Those are heaven for brokers.
Happy Trading
CRUDE OIL TRIPLE TOPFirst and foremost one should know I am very bearish on oil, as it has paid tremendously the past year to be on the short side. But a true bear should know when to prey and when to hibernate. At this moment I consider myself in hibernation.
I am looking to sit out until June of this year before I initiate my big short on crude. So far my analysis has been inaccurate and predictions have been in accurate the past 2 months. I will admit this. But when I put my bias aside and actually listen to my chart as well as my technical analysis, I can admit to myself that oil has more room to run. Most bears wont admit this, but I will admit crude has room to run but one must take the good and bad with this. The GOOD in this is that the more oil runs up the more green in our pockets when it meets its maker. One chart is not sufficient so i tend to make several charts. In this chart here we have a clean triple top. Previous triple top was formed July 29th 2015 and triple topped in oct 9th 2015. The most recent triple top was formed dec 15 2015 and triple topped today march 17th 2016. in each of these triple tops it took exactly three months to form. COINCIDENCE? I DON'T THINK SO!. Does this mean we should initiate a short? well not necessarily maybe if your'e scalping yes. We should deff be pulling back before taking one last swim up before JUNE.
Brent Near-Term OutlookBrent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.)
Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but something interesting has been reported by Charles Kennedy at Oilprice.com - " UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes ."
There is still no reason why OPEC would cut production now given the distress its tactics are already causing in the U.S. shale space. To cave in now, OPEC's squeeze on U.S. shale would be a failure and U.S. shale would be a beneficiary.
The same UAE that sparked the latest crude short-squeeze has so much oil, it's bribing India with free oil in order to access a underground Indian storage facility to park abundant reserves. Go figure.
Despite OPEC's true unwillingness to cut production, the technical outlook for Brent could prove positive unless risk sentiment is turned off.
Currently testing price resistance at $33.81, Brent crude has found support at two key weekly support levels: $27.83 and $31.59. The ADX is showing a lack of momentum in the current move, but +/- DMI could, potentially, have a bullish convergence.
The growing tensions between Saudi, Turkey and Syria could reignite risk premium, but many analysts have suggest that any substantial premium is unlikely due to the current supply glut. Even so, resistance at the 50-day EMA coincides with a minor downtrend.
However, a break north could test $38.46 to $40.34. If price breaks down, Brent could easily retest $27.83, while more talk of not cutting production would send the international benchmark to $22.98.
Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26
Check my posts out at:
bullion.directory
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cup is empty... caffeine is wearing off.Back in the days of swing ... this was an inverted cup and handle. It was not a bullish sign.
Today our computers can back check our our predictions, Algos, and ATMs. As they give us micro second opportunities. If my trading action happened at the speed of humming bird wings, my heart would explode.
If you play against the herd, stay short into the weekend. But the safe bet would be long or cash. It is more likely any news (true or not) this weekend, will be to promote a oil bottom. Not likely any weekend news will push price down. But any rumor can push it up.
It's the weekend.. I remain short oil..
When predicting micro moves, remember the tide matters... Saudi Arabia controls the price of oil. Once you understand that, all technicals need to include variables for real world political manipulation of the worlds most important commodity. .... "Church of Krümel"
Back in the day, there was a King, he turned off the blood supply to the industrial world. The world went into chaos, wars started... wars stopped. In the end the world found that one country... No, one man controls the affordable supply of the earths most important commodity .
Agree or not with anyone's politics, technical reads, or overall forecasts... My approach is to start with the above in mind.
Until we have a new king or new war, I see no reason to buy oil. Micro channel guys will laugh.. So much money to be made in the foam. This is true, though they may spend more time stressed that their finger is faster than a sword. I just invite those to know there are other ways to skin this cat.. Ways that allow for thought and time to walk outside. Charting has been around a long time. The tools are better.. but not always the results..
Will Putin look like Chavez? Oil can change the world.Way too many people don't remember the 70s. Yea, yea Das Krümel is OG. We have seen embargos, wars, and the collapse of empires. While others have risen to rule.
How would I remove my opponents from the game, if I controlled the the price of Item needed to both survive... or play the game? The Saudis can dump enough oil to bankrupt Putin. At the same time they keep their opponents in the region from growing into larger problems. Also lets not forget if I control the flow, I can hedge at will.
Russia: needs to be broken, again (Reagan did this in the 80s by getting into weapons spending war) Hurt US but killed USSR.
Iran: must find its place at the table.. SA's table.
Regional Conflicts must be starved-out... or turned into glass!!
Unless I see new clouds of war, or death of a King, I will remain short.
OPEC crude production climbed in January to the highest level in Bloomberg data going back 20 years....
www.houmatoday.com
Saudi has no love or trust with Russia.
gulfnews.com
USOIL IDEAOil broke the bearish channel forming a new low around 27.50 $ after that it bounced hard and it's approaching to the channel support now resistance without any FA on it's favour.
We could see a perfect pullback to it or a break upside to recover the bearish channel.
Anyway nothing here changes the trend.
Happy Trading
"Crude Oil" a Huge profit to be madeCrude oil is making new grounds with it soon to
come with its reverse pull back, same thing
happened in 2009 although there is a possibility
that crude can slide to support at 40$. either
way i will be easing my way into a positions
using the ETF UWTI which is priced very cheaply
at 3$ a share. also a big shout out to @Ricker for showing me UWTI
A bit more downside to comeThere's a strong support for oil at $37.72 and I believe that will be the bottom in the coming months.
It is only bouncing given the extreme oversold condition and that does not change the fundamental fact of an over supplied oil market and many more that are stored in offshore tankers. I highly doubt the long term log trend in black will hold. (Temporary bottom of $47)
At this point you wouldn't want to be shorting, other than waiting for an opportunity to long once the confirmation is in.
UWTI USO SDRL XLE